Well, after a .500 week of picks, I am back. As much so as Peyton Manning, at least.
Looking Back at Last Week's Picks
Ravens (-12) over Browns (WRONG = 0-1)
Patriots (-4.5) over Bills (CORRECT = 1-1)
Vikings (+5) over Lions (CORRECT = 2-1)
Falcons (-7) over Panthers (WRONG = 2-2)
49ers (-5) over Jets (CORRECT = 3-2)
Chargers (+1) over Chiefs (CORRECT = 4-2)
Texans (-12) over Titans (CORRECT = 5-2)
Rams (+3) over Seahawks (CORRECT = 6-2) (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Cardinals (-6.5) over Dolphins (WRONG = 6-3)
Broncos (-6.5) over Raiders (CORRECT = 7-3)
Bengals (-2.5) over Jaguars (CORRECT = 8-3) (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
Saints (+7.5) over Packers (CORRECT = 9-3)
Redskins (+3) over Buccaneers (CORRECT = 10-3)
Giants (+1.5) over Eagles (WRONG = 10-4)
Cowboys (-2.5) over Bears (WRONG = 10-5)
Week 4: 10-5 (Lock: 1-0; Upset: 1-0)
Year-to-Date: 37-25-1 (3-1; 4-0)
Best Pick: No perfect picks once again. The closest was my predicted Packers win of 28-24 (they won 28-27). I guess my upset pick of Rams 20 Seahawks 16 was kind of close (real score 19-13).
Weird Trend: I am 4-9 picking prime-time games. This wasn't a huge issue the first two weeks (4-3), but I've been 0-6 picking night games the last two weeks. No idea why, really. Usually those are easier games to pick, but I've not even been right heads up in the last two weeks (2-4).
Power Rankings
32.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3 = 62-97)
They should be thankful for that Cecil Shorts play, because they could be staring at 0-4 right now. What a sullen performance. The Bengals defense has been bad all year long, but I guess playing the Jags offense is a good way to correct some things. I thought it was unfair the amount of criticism Gabbert got last year, but he's barely improved.
31.) Kansas City Chiefs (1-3 = 88-136)
I still laugh at all those 'experts' to pick the Chiefs for a division title. Their defense is not good enough to overcome having Matt Cassel as the QB. Cassel really has not improved at all since he came to KC. People seem to like to wax poetic about that freak 7-int year in 2010, but that guy was a one-year fluke. The real Cassel is this one, who has awful pocket presence and throws gobs of picks.
30.) Cleveland Browns (0-4 = 73-98)
I really should have them ranked higher. They've been competitive in each game except for the Buffalo one. They showed great will and determination against the Ravens, making a game out of that one. Brandon Weeden is much, much better than that flummoxed cat that played in Week 1. They'll be feisty all year, but at some point you have to turn that into actual wins.
29.) Oakland Raiders (1-3 = 67-125)
I still like the Reggie McKenzie pick as GM long term, but can anyone tell me why he's cut almost everyone from the 2011 draft class. They were young, low-salary players, and he just let them go for nothing. Not that they were great, but DeMarcus Van Dyke is better than Ron Bartell or these other random stiffs McKenzie has got in the secondary. Just a terrible job with that defense.
28.) Tennessee Titans (1-3 = 81-151)
Being on pace to allow 600 points is usually not a good thing. Now Jake Locker-less for the forseeable future, it will be interesting to see exactly how much the dropoff is to Hasselbeck. CJ2K finally did something, and that might not be enough to touch teh Texans, but against lesser teams they could still win some games going forward.
27.) Indianapolis Colts (1-2 = 61-83)
Thoughts and Prayers are with you, Coach Pagano. His is a much tougher test than anything the Colts will face, and reading and listening to him, he's definitely up for the challenge.
26.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3 = 82-91)
The Buccaneers are a strange team. All of their losses have been close, but they've been outgained by at least 100 yards in all of them. They've nearly stolen two games they had absolutely no reason winning, and won a game they probably should have lost. The more and more these losses pile up, the worse off I think teh Bucs are in the Schiano era. Hard to play for a hard-ass when you are 3-9.
25.) Detroit Lions (1-3 = 100-114)
Well, that brief glimmer of hope for Lions fans that was 2011 was fun, wasn't it? In all seriousness, I think they are fine long term, but the Lions have entered a period where they aren't quite good enough to be able to think so highly of themselves. They like to play their game, but their game isn't good enough to beat a lot of teams. Sure, each of the last two weeks they've lost in games that featured 5 return TDs for their opponents, but losing to the Titans and Vikings aren't great endorsements.
24.) New York Jets (2-2 = 81-109)
I like Mark Sanchez. I genuinely think he is a good guy and wants and works to be a great player. The thing is, though, he just isn't. That said, the real problem for the Jets is Mike Tannenbaum has done an awful job or retaining and replacing talent. The 2009-2010 Jets were good, talented teams. Those guys aren't here anymore. They let Cotchery and Edwards go and not replaced them. They let Damien Woody go. They let Kerry Rhodes and countless other guys go. That roster just isn't that good.
23.) Miami Dolphins (1-3 = 86-90)
I'll admit, they are quite a bit better than I thought. Now, Brian Hartline having 250 yards receiving is a once-and-a-career achievement, but Tannehill looked calm and confident. That defense was swarming, including just a dominant performance by Cameron Wake. The Dolphins could easily be 3-1 right now (two losses in OT), but they're better off getting a low pick and building for the future. Tannehill's a guy you can build around, and I'm as surprised that that statement is true as any.
22.) New Orleans Saints (0-4 = 110-130)
That might have seemed like a tough loss to a good team, but let's be real, it was a tough loss when they were aided by multiple beneficial calls against a team that hasn't been that great this season. The Saints went 0-4 in 2007, so this isn't exactly unprecedented, and they finished that season 7-5. Brees is actually playing appreciably better this time around, but the defense is appreciably worse. With the Chargers and Broncos among their next few games, this might be getting worse.
21.) Carolina Panthers (1-3 = 80-109)
The Panthers two divisional losses this season were so similar to so many of their losses last year. Close losses where they had chances to win the game late in the 4th quarter. That decision to punt was about as conservative as it gets. Yes, they downed the ensuing punt at the 1, but it still was cowardly. Cam Newton is about as sure a thing as there is in the NFL if you need one yard. Let him get that one yard, Ron.
20.) St. Louis Rams (2-2 = 79-91)
I know Jeff Fisher is a good coach, but this has been really surprising. The Rams were outclassed in Chicago by a plain better Bears team, but that defense is really strong, and they play well at home. Honestly, they've played four teams that are more talented, and won two games and came close to winning another. Sam Bradford also looks comfortable, for once, which is doing wonders for that offense that could still use a couple weapons that could actually be considered good.
19.) Buffalo Bills (2-2 = 115-131)
That was the definition of falling off a cliff. All of a sudden, they stopped getting any sort of pressure on Brady, Fitzpatrick started wildly flinging passes all over the place and it was a wrap. That defense doesn't seem to be any better this year. In their two losses, they've given up 100 points. 52 to the Patriots is bad, but 48 to the Jets? Anyway, because of an easy schedule they can stay around .500, but that defense better improve quickly.
18.) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2 = 77-75)
The bye should help them in that they'll get Harrison and possibly Polamalu back, but how bad does that Oakland loss look now. The Steelers are wasting a great year from Roethlisberger to this point. There's still time to sort this out in an AFC where many of the teams ahead of them aren't great (Jets, Bills), but maybe they aren't either.
17.) Dallas Cowboys (2-2 = 65-88)
For years, I have expounded on the Cowboys inability to have their points scored rank match up with their yardage rank. It was first obvious in 2009, when everyone was raving about their 2nd rank offense in terms of yards, but they ranked just 14th in points. In 2011, when Romo was healthy again, it was more moderate, with the points rank at 15, while the yards at 11 (oddly, the most even year was with Kitna at QB for a long stretch in 2010). This year is the worst. The Cowboys currently have scored the 2nd fewest points in the NFL, while ranking 16th in yards. That is a recipe for disaster.
16.) Washington Redskins (2-2 = 123-123)
I'll admit it, RGIII is a very good player and this is a very fun offense to watch. I bet Mike Shanahan has dreamed of having this type of QB ever since leaving the friendly confines of Camelot with Steve Young. Now, they have to stop blowing leads. For the 2nd time this season, the Redskins blew at 21-6 lead on the road. They came back to win this time, but blowing a 15 point lead to the Bucs isn't exactly the sign of a great team.
15.) Seattle Seahawks (2-2 = 70-58)
That Seahawks-Rams game made me feel smart. I like feeling smart; that feeling when you call a game close to perfectly. The Seahawks aren't good enough to go on the road to a good defense and win. Russell Wilson and that offense just isn't there yet. That said, if the Rams kicker doesn't pull a Janikowski, they might win anyway. It is so strange to see good, competitive and competent games featuring NFC West teams again.
14.) Minnesota Vikings (3-1 = 90-72)
There is a good chance the Vikings are 4-1 after next week. They've shored up that secondary and their offense is just clicking right now. Christian Ponder is using that offense perfectly, utilizing short routes with Rudolph and getting Harvin involved as much as possible. Peterson looked great and continues to amaze in his quick recovery from an ACL tear. The Vikings are really as much of a surprise as the Cardinals, and they aren't going away.
13.) Cincinnati Bengals (3-1 = 112-112)
This team also has a great chance of being 4-1. Essentially, they are doing exactly what they did last year: beat all the teams they are better than. They were completely outclassed by the Ravens in Baltimore, but beat three teams worse than them. The defense finally showed up (Michael Johnson, welcome back to relevance). I like this team. Again, they'll lose to the good teams, but in a weak middle of the AFC, that might not really matter.
12.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-1 = 66-83)
The Eagles have to be one of the worst 3-1 teams ever. They've been outscored by 17. Each of their three wins could have so easily been losses, had the Browns LB held onto the pick, Jacoby Jones not being called for a really suspect OPI, and Lawrence Tynes getting 4% more power into that kick. They didn't turn the ball over for once, but their worst quality from 2010-11 showed up: inability to do anything in the red zone.
11.) Green Bay Packers (2-2 = 85-81)
Just like I said in the Saints part, the Packers needed some luck to beat an 0-3 team. Against the league's worst defense, they couldn't put up 30 points (admittedly, Rodgers had a really good game). The Packers schedule starts to get easier starting with the Colts next week, but I still don't think they are quite there. Jordy Nelson doesn't seem close to what he was last year. That defense also seemed to take a step back after a nice start to the season.
10.) San Diego Chargers (3-1 = 100-71)
I'm probably underrating the Chargers after their big win in Arrowhead, but I still don't like this team. Their completely listless home game against Atlanta is still sticking in my head. They took care of business against a bad team, but the schedule is going to start getting quite a bit tougher going forward. Rivers is still not performing at his best level, but they haven't really needed him to so far.
9.) Arizona Cardinals (4-0 = 91-61)
That was a gut-check win, where they needed their offense for the first time in 2012. They are still so good in that dome. Kevin Kolb was battered and bruised by the Dolphins pass rush, but he stepped up big at the end with two huge throws on 4th downs. Andre Roberts has really turned into a nice player that can take advantage of all the attention paid to Fitz. I'm willing to give the Cards a pass for that lousy coverage, but it should get better.
8.) Denver Broncos (2-2 = 114-83)
Other than not getting a turnover (though a blocked punt is essentially a turnover) the Broncos defense played about as well as it could against a good Raiders defense. That was more important in a way than Manning shredding that awful defense. That said, let's talk about the Broncos offense. McGahee and Hillman cruised to 150 yards. Peyton looked like, well, Peyton. He was simply masterful against that defense. The only time the Broncos were stopped was when Thomas inexplicably fumbled, and that even more inexplicable fake field goal.
7.) New England Patriots (2-2 = 134-92)
Before we all go Ga-Ga over the Patriots dropping 52 on the Bills, let's remember that the Jets dropped 48 on those same Bills. The Patriots have also allowed close to 900 yards the past two weeks. Against a better QB, that defense get absolutely torched yesterday. Their running game is scary, but they went against a team that played dime for most of the game in fear of the pass. I'd like them to have a great performance against a good team. They get a chance this Sunday.
6.) New York Giants (2-2 = 111-84)
That was a tough loss. That was absolutely OPI on Barden, but had that just been incomplete, Tynes probably hits the 44 yard field goal and the Giants go to 3-1 with a huge road divisional win. Either way, the Giants are still a good team that nearly beat the Eagles without Nicks and with no running game. Their defense lost another key member in Phillips and they need to play better against the run, but that was a really tough situation to play in and they could have won.
5.) Chicago Bears (3-1 = 108-68)
Well, that was something. Through four games, two against what people would call good offenses, the Packers have picked off 11 passes, and recorded 15 sacks. Both those figures, shall we say, lead the league. There is little chance they keep up that pace, but if they somehow do get close to picking off 44 passes and recording 60 sacks, just give them the divisional title. Good to see Devin Hester be used well on offense, and better to see Marshall and Cutler in sync and, for once, smiling.
4.) Baltimore Ravens (3-1 = 121-83)
They are good. Their offense is really good at times. Joe Flacco is turning in one of the better seasons of any QB this year. Ray Rice has been incredible efficient in limited use. That is the good. The bad is the defense, and specifically the pass defense without Terrell Suggs applying pressure. They haven't been able to come close to replicating the pressure that Suggs brings and going forward that is something to look out for. The Ravens are still good enough to get around it because of that improved offense, but sooner or later not having Suggs will hurt them (until they get Suggs back, of course).
3.) Atlanta Falcons (4-0 = 124-76)
The Falcons escaped. Good teams have to sooner or later, and great teams do it. The only concern I have is more of an aesthetic one. The Falcons have been incredible at home in the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era, but their two 'close' games in 2012 have been at home. Now, that belies dominant road performances, but still a bit worrying for a team that could be playing a couple home games come January.
2.) San Francisco 49ers (3-1 = 104-65)
The Jets didn't pose much of a challenge, but that doesn't mean you can't be impressed with what the 49ers did. They rushed for 245 yards. They gave up 145... total yards. On the road, in a 1PM East-Coast game. They took that trope and beat it to death. Sure, I still want to see more from Alex Smith, but that was the return of the most phyiscally dominant team in the NFL.
1.) Houston Texans (4-0 = 126-56)
A quick disclaimer: they aren't as good as the 2007 Patriots. Okay, after getting that out of the way, they are off to the best start of any team since. They've scored the 2nd most points in the NFL despite noticeably pulling the foot of the gas in the 2nd half of each of their first two games. They've allowed the fewest points. They've played only one reasonably close game, and that was on the road and even there they led by 20 before getting burned in the 4th quarter by Peyton. JJ Watt is playing at a level rarely seen by anyone not named Reggie White. That offense still isn't running at its best, and Andre Johnson is being purposely taken out of games, yet their offense has scored more than enough. There is really no other option. The real test for the Texans will be their two games coming up after this one against the Jets, where they host the Packers on SNF and then host the Ravens. If they escape that at 7-0 with impressive wins, then I'll start debating a possible run at 16-0.
Ranking this Week's Games
With just a quick glance at the schedule, this is the least appealing week so far. Obviously, there is one large exception, but both of the main primetime games are less attractive now than they looked at the beginning of the season. Anyway, four teams on a bye this week. including three 1-3 teams, yet the slate still has a bunch of games featuring good teams against bad.
Byes: Dallas, Detroit, Oakland, Tampa Bay
These first four games feature good teams (if not teams with great records) playing against bad teams. The Packers can continue to get back to their normal offensive levels with a trip to Indy. The Giants can get that bad taste out of their mouth with Cleveland. The other two are interesting. The Bears defense could just kill Blaine Gabbert, and the Ravens have a good shot of doing the same to Matt Cassel. These all set up to be less than competitive, and therefore, pretty boring.
14.) Baltimore Ravens (3-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-3) (CBS - 1:00)
13.) Chicago Bears (3-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) (FOX - 4:05)
12.) Cleveland Browns (0-4) @ New York Giants (2-2) (CBS - 1:00)
11.) Green Bay Packers (2-2) @ Indianapolis Colts (1-2) (FOX - 1:00)
These next two games get their own section. They share mostly the same formula as the ones above, but are a little more interesting because of the potential here. The Jets and Bills are two of the worst 2-2 teams, and both were absolutely crushed last weekend. Now they get my top-2 teams in the NFL. As for the Jets, you have to think they show some pride after what just took place, but it really may not matter. Same with the Bills.
10.) Houston Texans (4-0) @ New York Jets (2-2) (MNF)
9.) Buffalo Bills (2-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (3-1) (CBS - 4:25)
The Titans are the worst team by point differential in the NFL, but I like this matchup for some reason. CJ2K finally played a game, and just watching him and All-Day go against each other should be fun. What could really be interesting is the Vikings, yes the Vikings, could be 4-1.
8.) Tennessee Titans (1-3) @ Minnesota Vikings (3-1) (CBS - 1:00)
These next three games are all quite similar. They feature a bunch of mediocre to good teams playing against each other. That Arizona @ St. Louis game is turning out a lot better than it originally looked on the TNF slate. The Bengals could also be 4-1, and start shutting all those people who saw regression from them (me!). Seahawks @ Panthers just seems fun.
7.) Arizona Cardinals (4-0) @ St. Louis Rams (2-2) (TNF)
6.) Miami Dolphins (1-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (3-1) (CBS - 1:00)
5.) Seattle Seahawks (2-2) @ Carolina Panthers (1-3) (FOX - 4:05)
Not sure why this game is that appealing. In most weeks it wouldn't be this high. The Steelers should have at least Harrison back at this point. The Eagles are the worst 3-1 team, and the Steelers are the best sub-.500 team, so I could see the Steelers flexing their muscles at home again.
4.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) (FOX - 1:00)
Do you like offense? Well, then these two games are for you. The Redskins continue to be a really exciting team to watch, while the Falcons are the most explosive offense through four weeks. In that next game, I wonder what odds you would have gotten that the Chargers would enter that game three games better than the Saints. The Chargers so far are 2-0 on the road, and there is no East Coast stuff going on as it is a night game. The last time these two met was a wildly entertaining 39-36 game in London back in 2008.
3.) Atlanta Falcons (4-0) @ Washington Redskins (2-2) (FOX - 1:00)
2.) San Diego Chargers (3-1) @ New Orleans Saints (0-4) (SNF)
The Rivalries continue. Sure, we finally get Manning vs. Brady for the first time since December 2010, but the best part about Manning's new team choice is that he joins an already existing rivalry. Back in the day, the Broncos under Shanahan used to give the Patriots fits. They beat them in 2002 and then three straight times from 2005-2006 (for all the talk of rock-paper-scissors, it was everyone beat New England in those two years) including handing Brady his first playoff loss, and the Patriots needed some timely situation football (intentional safety) to steal a win in 2003 against a Danny Kannell led Broncos team. Since those days, the Patriots have won three of four, and all their wins are in blowouts, with the Broncos win in the McDaniels game in 2009. As for the Manning factor, in the modern rivalry (from 2001), he's never beaten the Patriots in a non-prime-time game (discounting the 6:35 start for the 2006 AFC Title Game) losing in 2003, 2007 and 2010, while winning the last four played in prime-time (including back to back wins in New England in 2005 and 2006). So of course, NFC gives CBS's head-honcho Les Moonves's friend Robert Kraft a solid by putting this game during the day. Yeah, I see through this obvious scheduling bullshit. Anyway, both teams enter on highs, and neither is desperate at 1-3. Should be a good game.
1.) Denver Broncos (2-2) @ New England Patriots (2-2) (CBS - 4:25)
*New Section* (Yes, I understand how long this is)
Postseason Projections
AFC
1.) Houston Texans 14-2
2.) Baltimore Ravens 12-4
3.) New England Patriots 12-4
4.) Denver Broncos 11-5
5.) San Diego Chargers 10-6
6.) Buffalo Bills/New York Jets 9-7 (Yeah, easy schedules really help)
NFC
1.) Atlanta Falcons 13-3
2.) San Francisco 49ers 12-4
3.) Chicago Bears 12-4
4.) New York Giants 11-5
5.) Green Bay Packers 10-6
6.) Arizona Cardinals 10-6
Looking Back at Last Week's Picks
Ravens (-12) over Browns (WRONG = 0-1)
Patriots (-4.5) over Bills (CORRECT = 1-1)
Vikings (+5) over Lions (CORRECT = 2-1)
Falcons (-7) over Panthers (WRONG = 2-2)
49ers (-5) over Jets (CORRECT = 3-2)
Chargers (+1) over Chiefs (CORRECT = 4-2)
Texans (-12) over Titans (CORRECT = 5-2)
Rams (+3) over Seahawks (CORRECT = 6-2) (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Cardinals (-6.5) over Dolphins (WRONG = 6-3)
Broncos (-6.5) over Raiders (CORRECT = 7-3)
Bengals (-2.5) over Jaguars (CORRECT = 8-3) (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
Saints (+7.5) over Packers (CORRECT = 9-3)
Redskins (+3) over Buccaneers (CORRECT = 10-3)
Giants (+1.5) over Eagles (WRONG = 10-4)
Cowboys (-2.5) over Bears (WRONG = 10-5)
Week 4: 10-5 (Lock: 1-0; Upset: 1-0)
Year-to-Date: 37-25-1 (3-1; 4-0)
Best Pick: No perfect picks once again. The closest was my predicted Packers win of 28-24 (they won 28-27). I guess my upset pick of Rams 20 Seahawks 16 was kind of close (real score 19-13).
Weird Trend: I am 4-9 picking prime-time games. This wasn't a huge issue the first two weeks (4-3), but I've been 0-6 picking night games the last two weeks. No idea why, really. Usually those are easier games to pick, but I've not even been right heads up in the last two weeks (2-4).
Power Rankings
32.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3 = 62-97)
They should be thankful for that Cecil Shorts play, because they could be staring at 0-4 right now. What a sullen performance. The Bengals defense has been bad all year long, but I guess playing the Jags offense is a good way to correct some things. I thought it was unfair the amount of criticism Gabbert got last year, but he's barely improved.
31.) Kansas City Chiefs (1-3 = 88-136)
I still laugh at all those 'experts' to pick the Chiefs for a division title. Their defense is not good enough to overcome having Matt Cassel as the QB. Cassel really has not improved at all since he came to KC. People seem to like to wax poetic about that freak 7-int year in 2010, but that guy was a one-year fluke. The real Cassel is this one, who has awful pocket presence and throws gobs of picks.
30.) Cleveland Browns (0-4 = 73-98)
I really should have them ranked higher. They've been competitive in each game except for the Buffalo one. They showed great will and determination against the Ravens, making a game out of that one. Brandon Weeden is much, much better than that flummoxed cat that played in Week 1. They'll be feisty all year, but at some point you have to turn that into actual wins.
29.) Oakland Raiders (1-3 = 67-125)
I still like the Reggie McKenzie pick as GM long term, but can anyone tell me why he's cut almost everyone from the 2011 draft class. They were young, low-salary players, and he just let them go for nothing. Not that they were great, but DeMarcus Van Dyke is better than Ron Bartell or these other random stiffs McKenzie has got in the secondary. Just a terrible job with that defense.
28.) Tennessee Titans (1-3 = 81-151)
Being on pace to allow 600 points is usually not a good thing. Now Jake Locker-less for the forseeable future, it will be interesting to see exactly how much the dropoff is to Hasselbeck. CJ2K finally did something, and that might not be enough to touch teh Texans, but against lesser teams they could still win some games going forward.
27.) Indianapolis Colts (1-2 = 61-83)
Thoughts and Prayers are with you, Coach Pagano. His is a much tougher test than anything the Colts will face, and reading and listening to him, he's definitely up for the challenge.
26.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3 = 82-91)
The Buccaneers are a strange team. All of their losses have been close, but they've been outgained by at least 100 yards in all of them. They've nearly stolen two games they had absolutely no reason winning, and won a game they probably should have lost. The more and more these losses pile up, the worse off I think teh Bucs are in the Schiano era. Hard to play for a hard-ass when you are 3-9.
25.) Detroit Lions (1-3 = 100-114)
Well, that brief glimmer of hope for Lions fans that was 2011 was fun, wasn't it? In all seriousness, I think they are fine long term, but the Lions have entered a period where they aren't quite good enough to be able to think so highly of themselves. They like to play their game, but their game isn't good enough to beat a lot of teams. Sure, each of the last two weeks they've lost in games that featured 5 return TDs for their opponents, but losing to the Titans and Vikings aren't great endorsements.
24.) New York Jets (2-2 = 81-109)
I like Mark Sanchez. I genuinely think he is a good guy and wants and works to be a great player. The thing is, though, he just isn't. That said, the real problem for the Jets is Mike Tannenbaum has done an awful job or retaining and replacing talent. The 2009-2010 Jets were good, talented teams. Those guys aren't here anymore. They let Cotchery and Edwards go and not replaced them. They let Damien Woody go. They let Kerry Rhodes and countless other guys go. That roster just isn't that good.
23.) Miami Dolphins (1-3 = 86-90)
I'll admit, they are quite a bit better than I thought. Now, Brian Hartline having 250 yards receiving is a once-and-a-career achievement, but Tannehill looked calm and confident. That defense was swarming, including just a dominant performance by Cameron Wake. The Dolphins could easily be 3-1 right now (two losses in OT), but they're better off getting a low pick and building for the future. Tannehill's a guy you can build around, and I'm as surprised that that statement is true as any.
22.) New Orleans Saints (0-4 = 110-130)
That might have seemed like a tough loss to a good team, but let's be real, it was a tough loss when they were aided by multiple beneficial calls against a team that hasn't been that great this season. The Saints went 0-4 in 2007, so this isn't exactly unprecedented, and they finished that season 7-5. Brees is actually playing appreciably better this time around, but the defense is appreciably worse. With the Chargers and Broncos among their next few games, this might be getting worse.
21.) Carolina Panthers (1-3 = 80-109)
The Panthers two divisional losses this season were so similar to so many of their losses last year. Close losses where they had chances to win the game late in the 4th quarter. That decision to punt was about as conservative as it gets. Yes, they downed the ensuing punt at the 1, but it still was cowardly. Cam Newton is about as sure a thing as there is in the NFL if you need one yard. Let him get that one yard, Ron.
20.) St. Louis Rams (2-2 = 79-91)
I know Jeff Fisher is a good coach, but this has been really surprising. The Rams were outclassed in Chicago by a plain better Bears team, but that defense is really strong, and they play well at home. Honestly, they've played four teams that are more talented, and won two games and came close to winning another. Sam Bradford also looks comfortable, for once, which is doing wonders for that offense that could still use a couple weapons that could actually be considered good.
19.) Buffalo Bills (2-2 = 115-131)
That was the definition of falling off a cliff. All of a sudden, they stopped getting any sort of pressure on Brady, Fitzpatrick started wildly flinging passes all over the place and it was a wrap. That defense doesn't seem to be any better this year. In their two losses, they've given up 100 points. 52 to the Patriots is bad, but 48 to the Jets? Anyway, because of an easy schedule they can stay around .500, but that defense better improve quickly.
18.) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2 = 77-75)
The bye should help them in that they'll get Harrison and possibly Polamalu back, but how bad does that Oakland loss look now. The Steelers are wasting a great year from Roethlisberger to this point. There's still time to sort this out in an AFC where many of the teams ahead of them aren't great (Jets, Bills), but maybe they aren't either.
17.) Dallas Cowboys (2-2 = 65-88)
For years, I have expounded on the Cowboys inability to have their points scored rank match up with their yardage rank. It was first obvious in 2009, when everyone was raving about their 2nd rank offense in terms of yards, but they ranked just 14th in points. In 2011, when Romo was healthy again, it was more moderate, with the points rank at 15, while the yards at 11 (oddly, the most even year was with Kitna at QB for a long stretch in 2010). This year is the worst. The Cowboys currently have scored the 2nd fewest points in the NFL, while ranking 16th in yards. That is a recipe for disaster.
16.) Washington Redskins (2-2 = 123-123)
I'll admit it, RGIII is a very good player and this is a very fun offense to watch. I bet Mike Shanahan has dreamed of having this type of QB ever since leaving the friendly confines of Camelot with Steve Young. Now, they have to stop blowing leads. For the 2nd time this season, the Redskins blew at 21-6 lead on the road. They came back to win this time, but blowing a 15 point lead to the Bucs isn't exactly the sign of a great team.
15.) Seattle Seahawks (2-2 = 70-58)
That Seahawks-Rams game made me feel smart. I like feeling smart; that feeling when you call a game close to perfectly. The Seahawks aren't good enough to go on the road to a good defense and win. Russell Wilson and that offense just isn't there yet. That said, if the Rams kicker doesn't pull a Janikowski, they might win anyway. It is so strange to see good, competitive and competent games featuring NFC West teams again.
14.) Minnesota Vikings (3-1 = 90-72)
There is a good chance the Vikings are 4-1 after next week. They've shored up that secondary and their offense is just clicking right now. Christian Ponder is using that offense perfectly, utilizing short routes with Rudolph and getting Harvin involved as much as possible. Peterson looked great and continues to amaze in his quick recovery from an ACL tear. The Vikings are really as much of a surprise as the Cardinals, and they aren't going away.
13.) Cincinnati Bengals (3-1 = 112-112)
This team also has a great chance of being 4-1. Essentially, they are doing exactly what they did last year: beat all the teams they are better than. They were completely outclassed by the Ravens in Baltimore, but beat three teams worse than them. The defense finally showed up (Michael Johnson, welcome back to relevance). I like this team. Again, they'll lose to the good teams, but in a weak middle of the AFC, that might not really matter.
12.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-1 = 66-83)
The Eagles have to be one of the worst 3-1 teams ever. They've been outscored by 17. Each of their three wins could have so easily been losses, had the Browns LB held onto the pick, Jacoby Jones not being called for a really suspect OPI, and Lawrence Tynes getting 4% more power into that kick. They didn't turn the ball over for once, but their worst quality from 2010-11 showed up: inability to do anything in the red zone.
11.) Green Bay Packers (2-2 = 85-81)
Just like I said in the Saints part, the Packers needed some luck to beat an 0-3 team. Against the league's worst defense, they couldn't put up 30 points (admittedly, Rodgers had a really good game). The Packers schedule starts to get easier starting with the Colts next week, but I still don't think they are quite there. Jordy Nelson doesn't seem close to what he was last year. That defense also seemed to take a step back after a nice start to the season.
10.) San Diego Chargers (3-1 = 100-71)
I'm probably underrating the Chargers after their big win in Arrowhead, but I still don't like this team. Their completely listless home game against Atlanta is still sticking in my head. They took care of business against a bad team, but the schedule is going to start getting quite a bit tougher going forward. Rivers is still not performing at his best level, but they haven't really needed him to so far.
9.) Arizona Cardinals (4-0 = 91-61)
That was a gut-check win, where they needed their offense for the first time in 2012. They are still so good in that dome. Kevin Kolb was battered and bruised by the Dolphins pass rush, but he stepped up big at the end with two huge throws on 4th downs. Andre Roberts has really turned into a nice player that can take advantage of all the attention paid to Fitz. I'm willing to give the Cards a pass for that lousy coverage, but it should get better.
8.) Denver Broncos (2-2 = 114-83)
Other than not getting a turnover (though a blocked punt is essentially a turnover) the Broncos defense played about as well as it could against a good Raiders defense. That was more important in a way than Manning shredding that awful defense. That said, let's talk about the Broncos offense. McGahee and Hillman cruised to 150 yards. Peyton looked like, well, Peyton. He was simply masterful against that defense. The only time the Broncos were stopped was when Thomas inexplicably fumbled, and that even more inexplicable fake field goal.
7.) New England Patriots (2-2 = 134-92)
Before we all go Ga-Ga over the Patriots dropping 52 on the Bills, let's remember that the Jets dropped 48 on those same Bills. The Patriots have also allowed close to 900 yards the past two weeks. Against a better QB, that defense get absolutely torched yesterday. Their running game is scary, but they went against a team that played dime for most of the game in fear of the pass. I'd like them to have a great performance against a good team. They get a chance this Sunday.
6.) New York Giants (2-2 = 111-84)
That was a tough loss. That was absolutely OPI on Barden, but had that just been incomplete, Tynes probably hits the 44 yard field goal and the Giants go to 3-1 with a huge road divisional win. Either way, the Giants are still a good team that nearly beat the Eagles without Nicks and with no running game. Their defense lost another key member in Phillips and they need to play better against the run, but that was a really tough situation to play in and they could have won.
5.) Chicago Bears (3-1 = 108-68)
Well, that was something. Through four games, two against what people would call good offenses, the Packers have picked off 11 passes, and recorded 15 sacks. Both those figures, shall we say, lead the league. There is little chance they keep up that pace, but if they somehow do get close to picking off 44 passes and recording 60 sacks, just give them the divisional title. Good to see Devin Hester be used well on offense, and better to see Marshall and Cutler in sync and, for once, smiling.
4.) Baltimore Ravens (3-1 = 121-83)
They are good. Their offense is really good at times. Joe Flacco is turning in one of the better seasons of any QB this year. Ray Rice has been incredible efficient in limited use. That is the good. The bad is the defense, and specifically the pass defense without Terrell Suggs applying pressure. They haven't been able to come close to replicating the pressure that Suggs brings and going forward that is something to look out for. The Ravens are still good enough to get around it because of that improved offense, but sooner or later not having Suggs will hurt them (until they get Suggs back, of course).
3.) Atlanta Falcons (4-0 = 124-76)
The Falcons escaped. Good teams have to sooner or later, and great teams do it. The only concern I have is more of an aesthetic one. The Falcons have been incredible at home in the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era, but their two 'close' games in 2012 have been at home. Now, that belies dominant road performances, but still a bit worrying for a team that could be playing a couple home games come January.
2.) San Francisco 49ers (3-1 = 104-65)
The Jets didn't pose much of a challenge, but that doesn't mean you can't be impressed with what the 49ers did. They rushed for 245 yards. They gave up 145... total yards. On the road, in a 1PM East-Coast game. They took that trope and beat it to death. Sure, I still want to see more from Alex Smith, but that was the return of the most phyiscally dominant team in the NFL.
1.) Houston Texans (4-0 = 126-56)
A quick disclaimer: they aren't as good as the 2007 Patriots. Okay, after getting that out of the way, they are off to the best start of any team since. They've scored the 2nd most points in the NFL despite noticeably pulling the foot of the gas in the 2nd half of each of their first two games. They've allowed the fewest points. They've played only one reasonably close game, and that was on the road and even there they led by 20 before getting burned in the 4th quarter by Peyton. JJ Watt is playing at a level rarely seen by anyone not named Reggie White. That offense still isn't running at its best, and Andre Johnson is being purposely taken out of games, yet their offense has scored more than enough. There is really no other option. The real test for the Texans will be their two games coming up after this one against the Jets, where they host the Packers on SNF and then host the Ravens. If they escape that at 7-0 with impressive wins, then I'll start debating a possible run at 16-0.
Ranking this Week's Games
With just a quick glance at the schedule, this is the least appealing week so far. Obviously, there is one large exception, but both of the main primetime games are less attractive now than they looked at the beginning of the season. Anyway, four teams on a bye this week. including three 1-3 teams, yet the slate still has a bunch of games featuring good teams against bad.
Byes: Dallas, Detroit, Oakland, Tampa Bay
These first four games feature good teams (if not teams with great records) playing against bad teams. The Packers can continue to get back to their normal offensive levels with a trip to Indy. The Giants can get that bad taste out of their mouth with Cleveland. The other two are interesting. The Bears defense could just kill Blaine Gabbert, and the Ravens have a good shot of doing the same to Matt Cassel. These all set up to be less than competitive, and therefore, pretty boring.
14.) Baltimore Ravens (3-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-3) (CBS - 1:00)
13.) Chicago Bears (3-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) (FOX - 4:05)
12.) Cleveland Browns (0-4) @ New York Giants (2-2) (CBS - 1:00)
11.) Green Bay Packers (2-2) @ Indianapolis Colts (1-2) (FOX - 1:00)
These next two games get their own section. They share mostly the same formula as the ones above, but are a little more interesting because of the potential here. The Jets and Bills are two of the worst 2-2 teams, and both were absolutely crushed last weekend. Now they get my top-2 teams in the NFL. As for the Jets, you have to think they show some pride after what just took place, but it really may not matter. Same with the Bills.
10.) Houston Texans (4-0) @ New York Jets (2-2) (MNF)
9.) Buffalo Bills (2-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (3-1) (CBS - 4:25)
The Titans are the worst team by point differential in the NFL, but I like this matchup for some reason. CJ2K finally played a game, and just watching him and All-Day go against each other should be fun. What could really be interesting is the Vikings, yes the Vikings, could be 4-1.
8.) Tennessee Titans (1-3) @ Minnesota Vikings (3-1) (CBS - 1:00)
These next three games are all quite similar. They feature a bunch of mediocre to good teams playing against each other. That Arizona @ St. Louis game is turning out a lot better than it originally looked on the TNF slate. The Bengals could also be 4-1, and start shutting all those people who saw regression from them (me!). Seahawks @ Panthers just seems fun.
7.) Arizona Cardinals (4-0) @ St. Louis Rams (2-2) (TNF)
6.) Miami Dolphins (1-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (3-1) (CBS - 1:00)
5.) Seattle Seahawks (2-2) @ Carolina Panthers (1-3) (FOX - 4:05)
Not sure why this game is that appealing. In most weeks it wouldn't be this high. The Steelers should have at least Harrison back at this point. The Eagles are the worst 3-1 team, and the Steelers are the best sub-.500 team, so I could see the Steelers flexing their muscles at home again.
4.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) (FOX - 1:00)
Do you like offense? Well, then these two games are for you. The Redskins continue to be a really exciting team to watch, while the Falcons are the most explosive offense through four weeks. In that next game, I wonder what odds you would have gotten that the Chargers would enter that game three games better than the Saints. The Chargers so far are 2-0 on the road, and there is no East Coast stuff going on as it is a night game. The last time these two met was a wildly entertaining 39-36 game in London back in 2008.
3.) Atlanta Falcons (4-0) @ Washington Redskins (2-2) (FOX - 1:00)
2.) San Diego Chargers (3-1) @ New Orleans Saints (0-4) (SNF)
The Rivalries continue. Sure, we finally get Manning vs. Brady for the first time since December 2010, but the best part about Manning's new team choice is that he joins an already existing rivalry. Back in the day, the Broncos under Shanahan used to give the Patriots fits. They beat them in 2002 and then three straight times from 2005-2006 (for all the talk of rock-paper-scissors, it was everyone beat New England in those two years) including handing Brady his first playoff loss, and the Patriots needed some timely situation football (intentional safety) to steal a win in 2003 against a Danny Kannell led Broncos team. Since those days, the Patriots have won three of four, and all their wins are in blowouts, with the Broncos win in the McDaniels game in 2009. As for the Manning factor, in the modern rivalry (from 2001), he's never beaten the Patriots in a non-prime-time game (discounting the 6:35 start for the 2006 AFC Title Game) losing in 2003, 2007 and 2010, while winning the last four played in prime-time (including back to back wins in New England in 2005 and 2006). So of course, NFC gives CBS's head-honcho Les Moonves's friend Robert Kraft a solid by putting this game during the day. Yeah, I see through this obvious scheduling bullshit. Anyway, both teams enter on highs, and neither is desperate at 1-3. Should be a good game.
1.) Denver Broncos (2-2) @ New England Patriots (2-2) (CBS - 4:25)
*New Section* (Yes, I understand how long this is)
Postseason Projections
AFC
1.) Houston Texans 14-2
2.) Baltimore Ravens 12-4
3.) New England Patriots 12-4
4.) Denver Broncos 11-5
5.) San Diego Chargers 10-6
6.) Buffalo Bills/New York Jets 9-7 (Yeah, easy schedules really help)
NFC
1.) Atlanta Falcons 13-3
2.) San Francisco 49ers 12-4
3.) Chicago Bears 12-4
4.) New York Giants 11-5
5.) Green Bay Packers 10-6
6.) Arizona Cardinals 10-6
