Let's see if I can come out of my mediocre phase. Maybe, much like the Broncos will, I can start a 2nd half run. Let's go.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (5-2) (MIN -5.5)
I've spoken out before about how I don't like the Buccaneers, and I actually have come to like the Vikings, but I don't much like this matchup from their perspective. The Buccaneers are awful stopping the pass. Historically awful. They are also quietly been dominant against the run. That perfectly works here because they can slow down Peterson and make Ponder beat them. Ponder probably can, but I don't trust him yet. The only thing going for the Vikings, really, is that this is a TNF game at home, so I'll pick them to win, but not cover a high line against a team that's been blown out zero times.
Buccaneers 20 Vikings 24 (TB +5.5)
New England Patriots (4-3) @ St. Louis Rams (3-4) (NE -7)
I'm going on a run of favorites later on, but I like the Rams to keep this close. They have a defense that can limit New England. They're better suited to stop the Patriots offense than they were the Packers, as Brady doesn't like throwing to the tight windows that Rodgers, when on his game, feasts on. The pass rush should also get to Brady. If this was in St. Louis, I might have even picked the Rams, but I still think they are better than 7 points worse than New England.
Patriots 30 Rams 24 (STL +7)
Indianapolis Colts (3-3) @ Tennessee Titans (3-4) (TEN -3.5)
I have no idea how the Titans have won two straight games. They came from behind to beat the Steelers and Bills. Not exactly two great teams, but they don't really get a great team here either.The Colts have yet to come within 20 on the road, but I feel like they'll get up for a division game, especially the vets like Freeney and Wayne. The Titans don't have a pass rush to fluster Luck. The biggest issue here is if the Colts can stop the volatile CJ1K, who currently is on an upswing. Just looking historically, the Colts have done well against Johnson when Johnson was running for 2,000 yards. Quite a bit of this is homerish, but I'll go with the Colts to pull the upset. I can't imagine the Titans actually on a three game win streak.
Colts 23 Titans 20 (IND +3.5) (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) @ Green Bay Packers (4-3) (GB -15.5)
I hate laying a line this high. Man, that is high. But I can't even think of a case where the Jaguars keep this close. The Jags can't rush the passer, which is the only real way to slow down the Packers offense (that or be the Bears defense). The Jags will be missing their only good offensive weapon in MJD and is still employing Blaine Gabbert. Again, if I was a true gamblin' man, I probably wouldn't bet this game because that is usually a good move when it's a line this high and it seems this easy.
Jaguars 14 Packers 34 (GB -15.5)
San Diego Chargers (3-3) @ Cleveland Browns (1-6) (SD -2.5)
I have to believe the Chargers have fixed some of their issues over the bye, mostly the lack of communication between Rivers and his receivers. This team still has a very large Wild Card chance with the schedule they have coming up, but for that to happen they have to beat the Browns. Anyway, this is a good value line. The Chargers, while hated, are quite a bit better than the Browns, and with this low of a line, the Chargers are the easy, safe pick, and one I can get behind.
Chargers 27 Browns 20 (SD -2.5)
Atlanta Falcons (6-0) @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-3) (PHI -2.5)
The Eagles, with Andy Reid as head coach, have never lost off of a bye. The only exception is Super Bowl XXXIX. Every regular season bye has been followed by an Eagles' win. How meaningful is that? Not sure, but I don't think this is a huge mismatch anyway. The Eagles defense is still mostly good, and their corners should be able to contain White and Jones. The Falcons haven't had any success playing the Eagles during the Matt Ryan era. I think the Eagles keep that streak going one more year, and end the hopes of the last unbeaten team.
Falcons 17 Eagles 23 (PHI -2.5)
Seattle Seahawks (4-3) @ Detroit Lions (2-4) (DET -2.5)
I get the idea that the Seahawks haven't really played well on the road, but I'm surprised the Lions are comfortably favored. The Lions are off of a short week, while the Seahawks are off a long week. I would do research to see if that means anything, but I'm lazy. Anyway, the Seahawks have the talent in their DBs to limit Calvin the way the Bears did. Their offense shouldn't have too much trouble against the Lions offense that isn't great against the run. That said, the Seahawks really haven't shown much on the road, and the Lions are really desperate. I can see that winning out against a team that doesn't really need this game all that badly.
Seahawks 20 Lions 27 (DET -2.5)
Miami Dolphins (3-3) @ New York Jets (3-4) (NYJ -2.5)
This is the fourth straight game with a line of -2.5, which I love. The Jets beat the Dolphins four weeks ago by 3 in OT in Miami. That was almost a lifetime ago for both teams. Both are playing better now than they were back then. The Jets have figured out to play without Revis and Sanchez has played well the last two weeks. I'm not as sold on the Dolphins right now, and I can't see Ryan Tannehill having a good game in New York. The Jets also need this game badly, with trips to Seattle and St. Louis approaching after the bye.
Dolphins 16 Jets 24 (NYJ -2.5)
Carolina Panthers (1-5) @ Chicago Bears (6-1) (CHI -7.5)
Just like the Packers, sometimes it is easy because it is that easy. The Panthers are a mess right now. Their defense can't really rush the passer and has lost Gamble and Beason in the last weeks. That said, the one point of contention is the Bears aren't great against the run (at least relatively compared to the pass) and the Panthers could wake up. I just don't see. The Bears are playing at a really confident level right now.
Panthers 13 Bears 27 (CHI -7.5)
Washington Redskins (3-4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3) (PIT -4.5)
If this was the 2011 Steelers, I would write a long screed about this being RGIII's first true test against a great defense. Alas, the Steelers defense isn't quite close to what it was a year ago. I still think that they match up well with the Redskins offense. Their rush defense is still good, and I feel like this is the type of team that can contain RGIII. Their offense is good enough to capitalize against a Redskins secondary that can't cover deep against Wallace and Co. The Steelers are still money at home.
Redskins 20 Steelers 27 (PIT -4.5) (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
Oakland Raiders (2-4) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-5) (KC -1)
I realize the Raiders needed a 14-point second half comeback to beat the Jaguars at home, but the last time we saw the Chiefs, they lost 38-10 to the Buccaneers. The Chiefs have been lousy at home except against the Ravens. The Raiders rush defense has actually been good so I don't see Jamaal Charles going off, and that is really the Chiefs only reliable piece of their offense. The Raider offense is still decent, and that is enough to win this game.
Raiders 24 Chiefs 17 (OAK +1)
New York Giants (5-2) @ Dallas Cowboys (3-3) (NYG -2)
The Giants have not lost in the new Cowboys Stadium. Two of the games have been epic shootouts (2009, 2011), and this game could be that way as well. But I see a more lower-scoring type game, but I still see the Giants coming out on top. They are getting love before the game (the Giants are favorites) but I still say we get the mad Giants coming to Dallas after Dallas beat them in week 1. The Cowboys are still with a gimpy Dez and without Murray. That is not a recipe for success against a defense that is susceptible to the run. Also really like the value here, as it's almost like picking straight up here.
Giants 27 Cowboys 23 (NYG -2)
New Orleans Saints (2-4) @ Denver Broncos (3-3) (DEN -6)
Despite my inclination to think the Broncos go on a nice run coming up, I am deathly scared of this game. Drew Brees woke up last week, but that was against the league's worst pass defense. The Broncos are actually a decent pass defense, and can get pressure on Brees, which he's been effected by more than usual. Also, that Saints offense is awful. The Broncos offense is very good when they don't fumble. They can't keep fumbling, and if they don't they should score 30 easy. I love the Broncos here, and as a long-time Manning and Colts supporter, that scares me more than anything.
Saints 24 Broncos 34 (DEN -6)
San Francisco 49ers (5-2) @ Arizona Cardinals (4-3) (SF -7)
This game looked a lot better a couple weeks ago, when the Cards were 4-1, but the Cards aren't as bad as the team that lost to Minnesota last week. They dominated much of that game except for Special Teams and, once again, their inability to block. Both of those things can be huge problems in this game as well, but the Cards usually play better at home. This is a big game, their first prime-time game in the post-Warner era, I believe. Sign me up. I think the 49ers still pull this out, but they aren't that much better than the Cards in their building.
49ers 20 Cardinals 17 (ARZ +7)
Enjoy the Games!!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (5-2) (MIN -5.5)
I've spoken out before about how I don't like the Buccaneers, and I actually have come to like the Vikings, but I don't much like this matchup from their perspective. The Buccaneers are awful stopping the pass. Historically awful. They are also quietly been dominant against the run. That perfectly works here because they can slow down Peterson and make Ponder beat them. Ponder probably can, but I don't trust him yet. The only thing going for the Vikings, really, is that this is a TNF game at home, so I'll pick them to win, but not cover a high line against a team that's been blown out zero times.
Buccaneers 20 Vikings 24 (TB +5.5)
New England Patriots (4-3) @ St. Louis Rams (3-4) (NE -7)
I'm going on a run of favorites later on, but I like the Rams to keep this close. They have a defense that can limit New England. They're better suited to stop the Patriots offense than they were the Packers, as Brady doesn't like throwing to the tight windows that Rodgers, when on his game, feasts on. The pass rush should also get to Brady. If this was in St. Louis, I might have even picked the Rams, but I still think they are better than 7 points worse than New England.
Patriots 30 Rams 24 (STL +7)
Indianapolis Colts (3-3) @ Tennessee Titans (3-4) (TEN -3.5)
I have no idea how the Titans have won two straight games. They came from behind to beat the Steelers and Bills. Not exactly two great teams, but they don't really get a great team here either.The Colts have yet to come within 20 on the road, but I feel like they'll get up for a division game, especially the vets like Freeney and Wayne. The Titans don't have a pass rush to fluster Luck. The biggest issue here is if the Colts can stop the volatile CJ1K, who currently is on an upswing. Just looking historically, the Colts have done well against Johnson when Johnson was running for 2,000 yards. Quite a bit of this is homerish, but I'll go with the Colts to pull the upset. I can't imagine the Titans actually on a three game win streak.
Colts 23 Titans 20 (IND +3.5) (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) @ Green Bay Packers (4-3) (GB -15.5)
I hate laying a line this high. Man, that is high. But I can't even think of a case where the Jaguars keep this close. The Jags can't rush the passer, which is the only real way to slow down the Packers offense (that or be the Bears defense). The Jags will be missing their only good offensive weapon in MJD and is still employing Blaine Gabbert. Again, if I was a true gamblin' man, I probably wouldn't bet this game because that is usually a good move when it's a line this high and it seems this easy.
Jaguars 14 Packers 34 (GB -15.5)
San Diego Chargers (3-3) @ Cleveland Browns (1-6) (SD -2.5)
I have to believe the Chargers have fixed some of their issues over the bye, mostly the lack of communication between Rivers and his receivers. This team still has a very large Wild Card chance with the schedule they have coming up, but for that to happen they have to beat the Browns. Anyway, this is a good value line. The Chargers, while hated, are quite a bit better than the Browns, and with this low of a line, the Chargers are the easy, safe pick, and one I can get behind.
Chargers 27 Browns 20 (SD -2.5)
Atlanta Falcons (6-0) @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-3) (PHI -2.5)
The Eagles, with Andy Reid as head coach, have never lost off of a bye. The only exception is Super Bowl XXXIX. Every regular season bye has been followed by an Eagles' win. How meaningful is that? Not sure, but I don't think this is a huge mismatch anyway. The Eagles defense is still mostly good, and their corners should be able to contain White and Jones. The Falcons haven't had any success playing the Eagles during the Matt Ryan era. I think the Eagles keep that streak going one more year, and end the hopes of the last unbeaten team.
Falcons 17 Eagles 23 (PHI -2.5)
Seattle Seahawks (4-3) @ Detroit Lions (2-4) (DET -2.5)
I get the idea that the Seahawks haven't really played well on the road, but I'm surprised the Lions are comfortably favored. The Lions are off of a short week, while the Seahawks are off a long week. I would do research to see if that means anything, but I'm lazy. Anyway, the Seahawks have the talent in their DBs to limit Calvin the way the Bears did. Their offense shouldn't have too much trouble against the Lions offense that isn't great against the run. That said, the Seahawks really haven't shown much on the road, and the Lions are really desperate. I can see that winning out against a team that doesn't really need this game all that badly.
Seahawks 20 Lions 27 (DET -2.5)
Miami Dolphins (3-3) @ New York Jets (3-4) (NYJ -2.5)
This is the fourth straight game with a line of -2.5, which I love. The Jets beat the Dolphins four weeks ago by 3 in OT in Miami. That was almost a lifetime ago for both teams. Both are playing better now than they were back then. The Jets have figured out to play without Revis and Sanchez has played well the last two weeks. I'm not as sold on the Dolphins right now, and I can't see Ryan Tannehill having a good game in New York. The Jets also need this game badly, with trips to Seattle and St. Louis approaching after the bye.
Dolphins 16 Jets 24 (NYJ -2.5)
Carolina Panthers (1-5) @ Chicago Bears (6-1) (CHI -7.5)
Just like the Packers, sometimes it is easy because it is that easy. The Panthers are a mess right now. Their defense can't really rush the passer and has lost Gamble and Beason in the last weeks. That said, the one point of contention is the Bears aren't great against the run (at least relatively compared to the pass) and the Panthers could wake up. I just don't see. The Bears are playing at a really confident level right now.
Panthers 13 Bears 27 (CHI -7.5)
Washington Redskins (3-4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3) (PIT -4.5)
If this was the 2011 Steelers, I would write a long screed about this being RGIII's first true test against a great defense. Alas, the Steelers defense isn't quite close to what it was a year ago. I still think that they match up well with the Redskins offense. Their rush defense is still good, and I feel like this is the type of team that can contain RGIII. Their offense is good enough to capitalize against a Redskins secondary that can't cover deep against Wallace and Co. The Steelers are still money at home.
Redskins 20 Steelers 27 (PIT -4.5) (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
Oakland Raiders (2-4) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-5) (KC -1)
I realize the Raiders needed a 14-point second half comeback to beat the Jaguars at home, but the last time we saw the Chiefs, they lost 38-10 to the Buccaneers. The Chiefs have been lousy at home except against the Ravens. The Raiders rush defense has actually been good so I don't see Jamaal Charles going off, and that is really the Chiefs only reliable piece of their offense. The Raider offense is still decent, and that is enough to win this game.
Raiders 24 Chiefs 17 (OAK +1)
New York Giants (5-2) @ Dallas Cowboys (3-3) (NYG -2)
The Giants have not lost in the new Cowboys Stadium. Two of the games have been epic shootouts (2009, 2011), and this game could be that way as well. But I see a more lower-scoring type game, but I still see the Giants coming out on top. They are getting love before the game (the Giants are favorites) but I still say we get the mad Giants coming to Dallas after Dallas beat them in week 1. The Cowboys are still with a gimpy Dez and without Murray. That is not a recipe for success against a defense that is susceptible to the run. Also really like the value here, as it's almost like picking straight up here.
Giants 27 Cowboys 23 (NYG -2)
New Orleans Saints (2-4) @ Denver Broncos (3-3) (DEN -6)
Despite my inclination to think the Broncos go on a nice run coming up, I am deathly scared of this game. Drew Brees woke up last week, but that was against the league's worst pass defense. The Broncos are actually a decent pass defense, and can get pressure on Brees, which he's been effected by more than usual. Also, that Saints offense is awful. The Broncos offense is very good when they don't fumble. They can't keep fumbling, and if they don't they should score 30 easy. I love the Broncos here, and as a long-time Manning and Colts supporter, that scares me more than anything.
Saints 24 Broncos 34 (DEN -6)
San Francisco 49ers (5-2) @ Arizona Cardinals (4-3) (SF -7)
This game looked a lot better a couple weeks ago, when the Cards were 4-1, but the Cards aren't as bad as the team that lost to Minnesota last week. They dominated much of that game except for Special Teams and, once again, their inability to block. Both of those things can be huge problems in this game as well, but the Cards usually play better at home. This is a big game, their first prime-time game in the post-Warner era, I believe. Sign me up. I think the 49ers still pull this out, but they aren't that much better than the Cards in their building.
49ers 20 Cardinals 17 (ARZ +7)
Enjoy the Games!!
