Cleveland Browns (0-3) @ Baltimore Ravens (2-1) (Ravens -12)
The only think that would make me pick the Browns to cover (picking them to win is just ludicrous) is that the spread is really high and the Ravens had a really emotional, physical game on Sunday Night and this is a quick turnaround. However, the Ravens now how to beat the Browns in their sleep. Flacco and Harbaugh have never lost to them, and they haven't lost in that stadium since December 2010 (and before that since November 2009). Not happening here.
Browns 10 Ravens 27 (BAL -12)
New England Patriots (1-2) @ Buffalo Bills (Patriots -4.5)
I'm surprised this line is low. The Patriots have lost two close games to good teams and while the Bills are at home and have the better record, they've beaten two bad teams (KC, CLE) and will be without their best offensive player through three weeks. Now, Fred Jackson coming back should negate some of that. In the end, I think this game will be close (I think the Bills are good) but this seems to be really good value for New England.
Patriots 31 Bills 24 (NE -4.5)
Minnesota Vikings (2-1) @ Detroit Lions (1-2) (Lions -5)
What exactly have the Lions done to be favored by this much. Matthew Stafford is coming off an injury and hasn't looked that good even before the injury. They barely beat a bad Rams team, then lost to the 49ers easily, then lost to a bad Titans game in an admittedly flukey game. The Vikings have an offense led by a capable player who has so far been extremely accurate. They have enough ability to keep it close, and I could see their defense swarming the pocket of Stafford. I don't know if they win, but that five points is really an insult to one of the better surprises of 2012.
Vikings 23 Lions 27 (MIN +5)
Carolina Panthers (1-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (3-0) (Falcons -7)
I'm torn about this game. I can see the Panthers, in a divisional game with 10 days of rest, coming out and playing well, but the Falcons are just on a roll right now. Surprisingly, their worst performance was at home against Denver, but Denver is better than Carolina. Matt Ryan should have a ton of time to throw against a flaccid pass-rush. If Ramses Barden could go off on them, imagine what the Falcons can do. This is a high line, but the Falcons are that good for the time being.
Panthers 23 Falcons 31 (ATL -7)
San Francisco 49ers (2-1) @ New York Jets (2-1) (49ers -5)
This is an interesting matchup, with the 49ers having to play a 1PM game on the East Coast, while the Jets have to start Week 1 of the post-Revis 2012 season. Thankfully for them, the loss of Revis won't kill them here because the 49ers don't have any receiver that needs a Revis to take him out of the game. I can see the Jets defense having a good amount of success against the 49ers offense. The real story is the other side. The Jets offense has looked very much like the Jets offense we've come to know and love (unlike that absolute fluke from Week 1). The 49ers defense should hound Mark Sanchez. I don't like that matchup at all for the Jets.
49ers 23 Jets 13 (SF -5)
San Diego Chargers (2-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) (Chiefs -1)
Why is this line low? I realize there is a concern of the Chargers having to play a 1PM game, but I think this is a wild overreaction to one bad game by the Chargers. Yes, the Chiefs played well against the Saints in the 2nd half, but the Redskins and Panthers did as well and that hasn't translated into more wins in those cases. The Chargers offense should excel against a mediocre Chiefs secondary. On the other side, the Chargers defense has been better than expected, which should do wonders against a less than mediocre Chiefs offense.
Chargers 27 Chiefs 20 (SD +1)
Tennessee Titans (1-2) @ Houston Texans (3-0) (Texans -12)
I can't believe that I am about to pick two 12 point favorites to win and cover without really thinking much of it. There is a pretty good likelihood that one of these two don't cover, but I can't see the Texans needing much effort to beat a bad Tennessee team. The Texans are just a lot better right now. Their defense should swarm Locker, not allowing him to scramble the way he has. I can't see CJ0K getting off the ground here either. Their offense is good enough to do what they always do. The Texans have a formula, and until the defenses they face improve or injuries set in, it will work and work well.
Titans 13 Texans 31 (HOU -12)
Seattle Seahawks (2-1) @ St. Louis Rams (1-2) (Seahawks -2.5)
I like the Rams here. I don't think the Seahawks are that good, especially on offense. They basically had three plays in that game (the two TDs to Tate and the pass to Rice right before the Hail Mary) on offense. The Rams defense is quite good (at least as good as the Packers) and they are at home. I can see them shutting down the Seahawks offense. As for the Rams, their offense is not very good, but they've played better at home. They can play well enough to score enough points against a bad, overrated offense.
Seahawks 17 Rams 20 (STL +3) (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Miami Dolphins (1-2) @ Arizona Cardinals (3-0) (Cardinals -6.5)
Why is this line so low? The Dolphins played well last week, but the Cardinals are better than the Jets, and Arizona has been quietly one of the toughest places to play since that new building was opened in 2006, and great there since Whisenhunt took over in 2007. In '07, they went 6-2, in '08, they went 6-2, in '09, they went 4-4 but one of those was a rest-a-thon, in '10, they went 4-4 (the team went 5-11), and in '11, they went 6-2. So, in the Whiz era, they've gone 26-13 in real games, and 3-0 in the playoffs. That is a great home-field now. This seems too easy.
Dolphins 13 Cardinals 27 (ARZ -6.5)
Oakland Raiders (1-2) @ Denver Broncos (1-2) (Broncos -6.5)
The Broncos should win this game. Reggie McKenzie has scorched earth-ed the Raiders defense and they are now pretty awful. They cannot stop the pass at all, and Manning should have a great game. I can't see the Raiders D holding Denver to less than 27 or 30. Yet, I am terrified, mostly because a Denver loss here confirms my worst fear that the Manning era in Denver will not go too well, at least in 2012. I don't think this will happen, but I do fear it.
Raiders 17 Broncos 31 (DEN -6.5)
Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) (Bengals -2.5)
Another line I can't understand. The Jaguars were one minute, and a fluke 80-yard TD, away from 0-3. The Bengals were outclassed in Baltimore, but since have been the best offense in the NFL in Weeks 2-3. Their defense should finally show up now that they get the Jaguars offense to play against. I guess I can see a world where MoJo goes off, but even then I don't know if it will be enough. This isn't a great matchup for the Bengals, but that just means that they'll win by less than 10.
Bengals 24 Jaguars 20 (CIN -2.5) (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
New Orleans Saints (0-3) @ Green Bay Packers (1-2) (Packers -7.5)
By far the most interesting game between an 0-3 and a 1-2 team ever. If the Saints can pull this off, the Packers and Saints will both be 1-3. If the Packers win, they Saints will be 0-4, and on an 0-5 streak going back to last season. As for the game, here we have two teams that combined for about 1100 points last season, and so far one team is scoring 27.5 PPG, and the other is scoring at 19.0 PPG!!! Overall, I think the Saints actually give the Packers a good game. The Packers offense has been hampered by facing very good defenses, but their defense has feasted on bad offenses. The Saints might turn it over a lot, but they still can put up yards with the best of them. I think the Packers get key turnovers, and their offense shows some signs of life (4 TDs in 3 games so far) and win a close game.
Saints 24 Packers 28 (NO +7.5)
Washington Redskins (1-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2) (Buccaneers -3)
I have nothing to say about this game. It bores me to death. I feel for the regions of the country that get this game and not Saints @ Packers. The Buccaneers seemed like they wanted to end their fan's lives last week in Dallas. The Redskins defense is about as bad as I thought. I have no feel for this game, and honestly, I don't care to develop any.
Redskins 23 Buccaneers 17 (WAS +3)
New York Giants (2-1) @ Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) (Eagles -1.5)
The Eagles are the worst 2-1 team in the league. Now, they aren't the worst going forward (that would probably be Seattle or the Jets or Minnesota), but the worst through three games. 12 turnovers. Two one-point wins that were enabled by some fortunate plays followed by a harrowing loss in Arizona. The Giants pass-rush rediscovered themselves on Thursday, and they get 10 days to prepare for Vick, who looked about as clueless in terms of pocket-awareness as he ever last against Arizona. I think this line is a weird symbol of some respect for an Eagles team playing a divisional rival at home, but I don't see the Eagles getting too much going in this game.
Giants 27 Eagles 20 (NYG +1.5)
Chicago Bears (2-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-1) (Cowboys -3.5)
I really, really want to pick the Bears. Their defense is playing at a level I haven't seen from them since 2006. Their front is so deep and aggresive right now. Their secondary is playing well. Urlarcher and Briggs are still doing what they do. That said, they can't block. Neither can Dallas, but Romo is better under pressure than Cutler. These are, in a way, two pretty similar teams, but I think Dallas, at home, will do enough to get by the Bears defense. However, the one thing that can easily swing this game, and for all I know will, is that little Devin Hester housing one. I'm not betting on Special Teams, but that is really what scares me.
Bears 17 Cowboys 24 (DAL -3.5)
Enjoy the Games
The only think that would make me pick the Browns to cover (picking them to win is just ludicrous) is that the spread is really high and the Ravens had a really emotional, physical game on Sunday Night and this is a quick turnaround. However, the Ravens now how to beat the Browns in their sleep. Flacco and Harbaugh have never lost to them, and they haven't lost in that stadium since December 2010 (and before that since November 2009). Not happening here.
Browns 10 Ravens 27 (BAL -12)
New England Patriots (1-2) @ Buffalo Bills (Patriots -4.5)
I'm surprised this line is low. The Patriots have lost two close games to good teams and while the Bills are at home and have the better record, they've beaten two bad teams (KC, CLE) and will be without their best offensive player through three weeks. Now, Fred Jackson coming back should negate some of that. In the end, I think this game will be close (I think the Bills are good) but this seems to be really good value for New England.
Patriots 31 Bills 24 (NE -4.5)
Minnesota Vikings (2-1) @ Detroit Lions (1-2) (Lions -5)
What exactly have the Lions done to be favored by this much. Matthew Stafford is coming off an injury and hasn't looked that good even before the injury. They barely beat a bad Rams team, then lost to the 49ers easily, then lost to a bad Titans game in an admittedly flukey game. The Vikings have an offense led by a capable player who has so far been extremely accurate. They have enough ability to keep it close, and I could see their defense swarming the pocket of Stafford. I don't know if they win, but that five points is really an insult to one of the better surprises of 2012.
Vikings 23 Lions 27 (MIN +5)
Carolina Panthers (1-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (3-0) (Falcons -7)
I'm torn about this game. I can see the Panthers, in a divisional game with 10 days of rest, coming out and playing well, but the Falcons are just on a roll right now. Surprisingly, their worst performance was at home against Denver, but Denver is better than Carolina. Matt Ryan should have a ton of time to throw against a flaccid pass-rush. If Ramses Barden could go off on them, imagine what the Falcons can do. This is a high line, but the Falcons are that good for the time being.
Panthers 23 Falcons 31 (ATL -7)
San Francisco 49ers (2-1) @ New York Jets (2-1) (49ers -5)
This is an interesting matchup, with the 49ers having to play a 1PM game on the East Coast, while the Jets have to start Week 1 of the post-Revis 2012 season. Thankfully for them, the loss of Revis won't kill them here because the 49ers don't have any receiver that needs a Revis to take him out of the game. I can see the Jets defense having a good amount of success against the 49ers offense. The real story is the other side. The Jets offense has looked very much like the Jets offense we've come to know and love (unlike that absolute fluke from Week 1). The 49ers defense should hound Mark Sanchez. I don't like that matchup at all for the Jets.
49ers 23 Jets 13 (SF -5)
San Diego Chargers (2-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) (Chiefs -1)
Why is this line low? I realize there is a concern of the Chargers having to play a 1PM game, but I think this is a wild overreaction to one bad game by the Chargers. Yes, the Chiefs played well against the Saints in the 2nd half, but the Redskins and Panthers did as well and that hasn't translated into more wins in those cases. The Chargers offense should excel against a mediocre Chiefs secondary. On the other side, the Chargers defense has been better than expected, which should do wonders against a less than mediocre Chiefs offense.
Chargers 27 Chiefs 20 (SD +1)
Tennessee Titans (1-2) @ Houston Texans (3-0) (Texans -12)
I can't believe that I am about to pick two 12 point favorites to win and cover without really thinking much of it. There is a pretty good likelihood that one of these two don't cover, but I can't see the Texans needing much effort to beat a bad Tennessee team. The Texans are just a lot better right now. Their defense should swarm Locker, not allowing him to scramble the way he has. I can't see CJ0K getting off the ground here either. Their offense is good enough to do what they always do. The Texans have a formula, and until the defenses they face improve or injuries set in, it will work and work well.
Titans 13 Texans 31 (HOU -12)
Seattle Seahawks (2-1) @ St. Louis Rams (1-2) (Seahawks -2.5)
I like the Rams here. I don't think the Seahawks are that good, especially on offense. They basically had three plays in that game (the two TDs to Tate and the pass to Rice right before the Hail Mary) on offense. The Rams defense is quite good (at least as good as the Packers) and they are at home. I can see them shutting down the Seahawks offense. As for the Rams, their offense is not very good, but they've played better at home. They can play well enough to score enough points against a bad, overrated offense.
Seahawks 17 Rams 20 (STL +3) (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Miami Dolphins (1-2) @ Arizona Cardinals (3-0) (Cardinals -6.5)
Why is this line so low? The Dolphins played well last week, but the Cardinals are better than the Jets, and Arizona has been quietly one of the toughest places to play since that new building was opened in 2006, and great there since Whisenhunt took over in 2007. In '07, they went 6-2, in '08, they went 6-2, in '09, they went 4-4 but one of those was a rest-a-thon, in '10, they went 4-4 (the team went 5-11), and in '11, they went 6-2. So, in the Whiz era, they've gone 26-13 in real games, and 3-0 in the playoffs. That is a great home-field now. This seems too easy.
Dolphins 13 Cardinals 27 (ARZ -6.5)
Oakland Raiders (1-2) @ Denver Broncos (1-2) (Broncos -6.5)
The Broncos should win this game. Reggie McKenzie has scorched earth-ed the Raiders defense and they are now pretty awful. They cannot stop the pass at all, and Manning should have a great game. I can't see the Raiders D holding Denver to less than 27 or 30. Yet, I am terrified, mostly because a Denver loss here confirms my worst fear that the Manning era in Denver will not go too well, at least in 2012. I don't think this will happen, but I do fear it.
Raiders 17 Broncos 31 (DEN -6.5)
Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) (Bengals -2.5)
Another line I can't understand. The Jaguars were one minute, and a fluke 80-yard TD, away from 0-3. The Bengals were outclassed in Baltimore, but since have been the best offense in the NFL in Weeks 2-3. Their defense should finally show up now that they get the Jaguars offense to play against. I guess I can see a world where MoJo goes off, but even then I don't know if it will be enough. This isn't a great matchup for the Bengals, but that just means that they'll win by less than 10.
Bengals 24 Jaguars 20 (CIN -2.5) (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
New Orleans Saints (0-3) @ Green Bay Packers (1-2) (Packers -7.5)
By far the most interesting game between an 0-3 and a 1-2 team ever. If the Saints can pull this off, the Packers and Saints will both be 1-3. If the Packers win, they Saints will be 0-4, and on an 0-5 streak going back to last season. As for the game, here we have two teams that combined for about 1100 points last season, and so far one team is scoring 27.5 PPG, and the other is scoring at 19.0 PPG!!! Overall, I think the Saints actually give the Packers a good game. The Packers offense has been hampered by facing very good defenses, but their defense has feasted on bad offenses. The Saints might turn it over a lot, but they still can put up yards with the best of them. I think the Packers get key turnovers, and their offense shows some signs of life (4 TDs in 3 games so far) and win a close game.
Saints 24 Packers 28 (NO +7.5)
Washington Redskins (1-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2) (Buccaneers -3)
I have nothing to say about this game. It bores me to death. I feel for the regions of the country that get this game and not Saints @ Packers. The Buccaneers seemed like they wanted to end their fan's lives last week in Dallas. The Redskins defense is about as bad as I thought. I have no feel for this game, and honestly, I don't care to develop any.
Redskins 23 Buccaneers 17 (WAS +3)
New York Giants (2-1) @ Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) (Eagles -1.5)
The Eagles are the worst 2-1 team in the league. Now, they aren't the worst going forward (that would probably be Seattle or the Jets or Minnesota), but the worst through three games. 12 turnovers. Two one-point wins that were enabled by some fortunate plays followed by a harrowing loss in Arizona. The Giants pass-rush rediscovered themselves on Thursday, and they get 10 days to prepare for Vick, who looked about as clueless in terms of pocket-awareness as he ever last against Arizona. I think this line is a weird symbol of some respect for an Eagles team playing a divisional rival at home, but I don't see the Eagles getting too much going in this game.
Giants 27 Eagles 20 (NYG +1.5)
Chicago Bears (2-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-1) (Cowboys -3.5)
I really, really want to pick the Bears. Their defense is playing at a level I haven't seen from them since 2006. Their front is so deep and aggresive right now. Their secondary is playing well. Urlarcher and Briggs are still doing what they do. That said, they can't block. Neither can Dallas, but Romo is better under pressure than Cutler. These are, in a way, two pretty similar teams, but I think Dallas, at home, will do enough to get by the Bears defense. However, the one thing that can easily swing this game, and for all I know will, is that little Devin Hester housing one. I'm not betting on Special Teams, but that is really what scares me.
Bears 17 Cowboys 24 (DAL -3.5)
Enjoy the Games
