Overall, not a great week, but let's get going. I just hope I have power by Sunday, because even though this doesn't seem like the greatest week... It is football.
Kansas City Chiefs (1-6) @ San Diego Chargers (3-4) (SD -7.5)
The last two years they have played memorable night games in Arrowhead. The Chiefs won in Week 1 in 2010 off of two special teams TDs, and last year, Phil Rivers fumbled a snap trying to kneel to set up a game-winning Field Goal. Of course, the location changes. Will the outcome? The Chargers usually aren't operating at their best against the Chiefs even in San Diego, and off a short week I can see them struggling as well, but I can see the Chiefs struggling worse. I would probably buy a point here, but I'll go with the team that at least is kind of good.
Chiefs 13 Chargers 23 (SD -7.5)
Denver Broncos (4-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (3-4) (DEN -4)
The only thing I can see going for the Bengals is that they are off of a bye. Other than that, the last time we saw the Bengals they were emasculated at home by the Steelers on primetime. Manning is on a roll that I haven't seen since late 2008 from him. That defense is getting better by the week, which is going really under-the-radar as the offense gets all the headlines. I think this is good value, as winning by 4 isn't all that hard.
Broncos 31 Bengals 20 (CIN -4)
Arizona Cardinals (4-4) @ Green Bay Packers (5-3) (GB -11)
I hate picking so many favorites but I see myself thinking about doing it. The matchup here is just awful for the Cardinals. The Packers pass rush has been one of the best in the NFL, and they could easily pick up six sacks in this game. The Cardinals defense could slow down the Packers as despite what Alex Smith and that team did to them, I still think the Cards pass defense is good. This is a high line. I really have no idea. I wouldn't bank on this being right. After being burned last week by the Packers, but I'll go with the Cards to cover.
Cardinals 17 Packers 27 (ARZ +11)
Miami Dolphins (4-3) @ Indianapolis Colts (4-3) (MIA -2.5)
Surprisingly, an argument could be made that this is the most important game of the week, and the second biggest (after PIT @ NYG). The winner is 5-3, is in great position for a Wild Card (or in the Dolphins case, maybe the division). The real prize is the winner gets a head-to-head over the other team. The Colts have been very good at home (a freak 80-yard TD by Cecil Shorts away from 4-0 in the Luke), and they should get the win here against a gimpy Tannehill or a green Matt Moore.
Dolphins 17 Colts 23 (IND +2.5) (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Baltimore Ravens (5-2) @ Cleveland Browns (2-5) (BAL -3.5)
I would but the point and make this Ravens -2.5. I can't see the Browns actually beating the Ravens, but the Browns have kept it close against most teams. Only one actually beat them soundly in Cleveland, and that was the Bills(?). The reason that makes me really likes the Ravens is that they are angry after losing 43-13, and off of the bye, getting time to rest that defense and get Suggs back more. The Browns defense has been playing well of late, but I don't think Weeden and Co. will have enough success.
Ravens 24 Browns 20 (BAL -3.5)
Buffalo Bills (3-4) @ Houston Texans (6-1) (HOU -10.5)
I usually hesitate when a line is over 10, but here I barely looked twice. The Texans are that much better. They just had a week off to rest up whatever problems they might have had on the injury front. They have a running game that should exploit a historically bad rush defense. Their offense should swallow up that short passing game. I don't see this as being close.
Bills 10 Texans 31 (HOU -10.5)
Carolina Panthers (1-6) @ Washington Redskins (3-5) (WAS -3.5)
Interesting game. Any time people want to anoint RGIII, I immediately point to Cam, who was about as good as a rookie with less around him, and is now struggling with an extremely underachieving team. That could easily be the RGIII story in 2013. Anyway, as of now, I think the Panthers are playing better now, but apparently Vegas thinks so as well because that line is a lot lower than I would have thought. The Redskins will probably play a lot better this week as the Panthers defense isn't good enough to do to them what the Steelers were. I'll take the Redskins, but again, would buy that point.
Panthers 20 Redskins 27 (WAS -3.5)
Detroit Lions (3-4) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6) (DET -3.5)
This is giving a lot of credit to the Jaguars for not being blowed out by the Packers, because the Lions are definitely more than three points better, even in Jacksonville, which is close to the opposite of Home-Field Advantage. The Lions offense will need to be patient against the Jaguars defense as it did well limiting big plays against the Packers. What really worries me for Jacksonville is their o-line holding up against the Lions d-line. I'll take the Lions.
Lions 27 Jaguars 20 (DET -3.5) (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
Chicago Bears (6-1) @ Tennessee Titans (3-5) (CHI -3)
Another line that seems a little low. What is the easiest way to stay competitive with the Bears: limit turnovers (although against the Bears that isn't always in their control) and rush the passer. The Titans are 11th in turnovers, which is good, but with only 11 sacks pretty bad rushing the passer. Of course, the Bears make most d-lines look good, but I don't see anyone really covering Marshall or getting to Cutler too much. Other than Carolina, the Bears have destroyed bad teams, and I can see something similar happening here. The Titans are also coming off an emotional loss that might have ended any realistic shot of making the playoffs.
Bears 27 Titans 13 (CHI -3)
Minnesota Vikings (5-3) @ Seattle Seahawks (4-4) (SEA -5)
This is also quite an interesting game. Most assume that the Packers will wind up either catching Chicago or getting a Wild Card spot (pretty safe assumption), these are probably the two most likely teams for that second spot (along with Arizona and Detroit). This is a huge game, especially if Minnesota can pull it off. I just don't think they can. Can they keep it close, though? Probably. They have a defense that can easily get to Russell Wilson, and a defense that will limit his big plays. Their rush defense is good enough to limit Lynch. Also, the Vikings have extra rest in this game. I'll give them a good chance of covering.
Vikings 20 Seahawks 23 (MIN +5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4) @ Oakland Raiders (3-4) (OAK -1.5)
This is a bigger game for the Bucs, who can't afford to drop to 3-5 in a more competitive NFC, but the Raiders are on a nice little stretch. Their only loss in the past month was a last-second loss to the undefeated Falcons in Atlanta. They've been playing with fire falling behind against Jacksonville, but took care of KC. The Buccaneers are good. Anyway, I'll go with a random historical fact, that the Raiders are 2-0 against the Bucs since Super Bowl XXXVII, and I'll take them here.
Buccaneers 17 Raiders 24 (OAK -1.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3) @ New York Giants (6-2) (NYG -3)
The last two matchups of these teams were interesting. In 2004, rookie Eli played his first good game of his career against the eventual 15-1 Steelers. In 2008, the Giants went to Pittsburgh and played 'Man's Football' in a 21-14 win, where the Giants got a safety down 14-12 to tie the game. Anyway, getting back to the present, neither team is more desperate than the other. The Giants defense has looked average, but their pass rush should get to Roethlisberger. On the other side, the Steelers rush defense should shut down the Giants rush offense, but that doesn't matter too much for them. Anyway, I like the Giants here to win another game against a good opponent, their specialty. I don't think the 2012 Giants will fall apart after a good start like the 2007, 2009 and 2011 vintages. They usually save falling apart for December in even years.
Steelers 19 Giants 24 (NYG -3)
Dallas Cowboys (3-4) @ Atlanta Falcons (7-0) (ATL -4)
Fun game. The Cowboys have, in the Romo era, twice taken down undefeated teams later in the year than this, beating the 9-0 Colts in 2006 and beating the 13-0 Saints in the Dome in 2009. I guess I can see something similar here. What makes me nervous in taking the Falcons (who have loads of matchup advantages with their good o-line and pass defense) is their flaccid play at home, but their due to break out in a home game, and I don't trust Romo in primetime. I'll take my chances here with another favorite.
Cowboys 20 Falcons 30 (ATL -4)
Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) @ New Orleans Saints (2-5) (NO -3)
Another interesting game. They haven't played that much through the years. The last time they met was early in 2009, and the Saints rolled against Kevin Kolb. A lot has changed since then. They played a memorable Divisional Game in the Dome back in 2006. Anyway, the Eagles are better than the team that showed up last Sunday, and the Saints just aren't that good. For the first time, their offense even looked lost against Denver. Philly's new defense looked awful on Sunday, but I can see them having some success against everyone except for Jimmy Graham. I like the Eagles in these bigger games, strangely. I'll take them to give the Saints, shockingly, their third home loss.
Eagles 31 Saints 27 (PHI +3)
Enjoy the Games!!!
Kansas City Chiefs (1-6) @ San Diego Chargers (3-4) (SD -7.5)
The last two years they have played memorable night games in Arrowhead. The Chiefs won in Week 1 in 2010 off of two special teams TDs, and last year, Phil Rivers fumbled a snap trying to kneel to set up a game-winning Field Goal. Of course, the location changes. Will the outcome? The Chargers usually aren't operating at their best against the Chiefs even in San Diego, and off a short week I can see them struggling as well, but I can see the Chiefs struggling worse. I would probably buy a point here, but I'll go with the team that at least is kind of good.
Chiefs 13 Chargers 23 (SD -7.5)
Denver Broncos (4-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (3-4) (DEN -4)
The only thing I can see going for the Bengals is that they are off of a bye. Other than that, the last time we saw the Bengals they were emasculated at home by the Steelers on primetime. Manning is on a roll that I haven't seen since late 2008 from him. That defense is getting better by the week, which is going really under-the-radar as the offense gets all the headlines. I think this is good value, as winning by 4 isn't all that hard.
Broncos 31 Bengals 20 (CIN -4)
Arizona Cardinals (4-4) @ Green Bay Packers (5-3) (GB -11)
I hate picking so many favorites but I see myself thinking about doing it. The matchup here is just awful for the Cardinals. The Packers pass rush has been one of the best in the NFL, and they could easily pick up six sacks in this game. The Cardinals defense could slow down the Packers as despite what Alex Smith and that team did to them, I still think the Cards pass defense is good. This is a high line. I really have no idea. I wouldn't bank on this being right. After being burned last week by the Packers, but I'll go with the Cards to cover.
Cardinals 17 Packers 27 (ARZ +11)
Miami Dolphins (4-3) @ Indianapolis Colts (4-3) (MIA -2.5)
Surprisingly, an argument could be made that this is the most important game of the week, and the second biggest (after PIT @ NYG). The winner is 5-3, is in great position for a Wild Card (or in the Dolphins case, maybe the division). The real prize is the winner gets a head-to-head over the other team. The Colts have been very good at home (a freak 80-yard TD by Cecil Shorts away from 4-0 in the Luke), and they should get the win here against a gimpy Tannehill or a green Matt Moore.
Dolphins 17 Colts 23 (IND +2.5) (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Baltimore Ravens (5-2) @ Cleveland Browns (2-5) (BAL -3.5)
I would but the point and make this Ravens -2.5. I can't see the Browns actually beating the Ravens, but the Browns have kept it close against most teams. Only one actually beat them soundly in Cleveland, and that was the Bills(?). The reason that makes me really likes the Ravens is that they are angry after losing 43-13, and off of the bye, getting time to rest that defense and get Suggs back more. The Browns defense has been playing well of late, but I don't think Weeden and Co. will have enough success.
Ravens 24 Browns 20 (BAL -3.5)
Buffalo Bills (3-4) @ Houston Texans (6-1) (HOU -10.5)
I usually hesitate when a line is over 10, but here I barely looked twice. The Texans are that much better. They just had a week off to rest up whatever problems they might have had on the injury front. They have a running game that should exploit a historically bad rush defense. Their offense should swallow up that short passing game. I don't see this as being close.
Bills 10 Texans 31 (HOU -10.5)
Carolina Panthers (1-6) @ Washington Redskins (3-5) (WAS -3.5)
Interesting game. Any time people want to anoint RGIII, I immediately point to Cam, who was about as good as a rookie with less around him, and is now struggling with an extremely underachieving team. That could easily be the RGIII story in 2013. Anyway, as of now, I think the Panthers are playing better now, but apparently Vegas thinks so as well because that line is a lot lower than I would have thought. The Redskins will probably play a lot better this week as the Panthers defense isn't good enough to do to them what the Steelers were. I'll take the Redskins, but again, would buy that point.
Panthers 20 Redskins 27 (WAS -3.5)
Detroit Lions (3-4) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6) (DET -3.5)
This is giving a lot of credit to the Jaguars for not being blowed out by the Packers, because the Lions are definitely more than three points better, even in Jacksonville, which is close to the opposite of Home-Field Advantage. The Lions offense will need to be patient against the Jaguars defense as it did well limiting big plays against the Packers. What really worries me for Jacksonville is their o-line holding up against the Lions d-line. I'll take the Lions.
Lions 27 Jaguars 20 (DET -3.5) (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
Chicago Bears (6-1) @ Tennessee Titans (3-5) (CHI -3)
Another line that seems a little low. What is the easiest way to stay competitive with the Bears: limit turnovers (although against the Bears that isn't always in their control) and rush the passer. The Titans are 11th in turnovers, which is good, but with only 11 sacks pretty bad rushing the passer. Of course, the Bears make most d-lines look good, but I don't see anyone really covering Marshall or getting to Cutler too much. Other than Carolina, the Bears have destroyed bad teams, and I can see something similar happening here. The Titans are also coming off an emotional loss that might have ended any realistic shot of making the playoffs.
Bears 27 Titans 13 (CHI -3)
Minnesota Vikings (5-3) @ Seattle Seahawks (4-4) (SEA -5)
This is also quite an interesting game. Most assume that the Packers will wind up either catching Chicago or getting a Wild Card spot (pretty safe assumption), these are probably the two most likely teams for that second spot (along with Arizona and Detroit). This is a huge game, especially if Minnesota can pull it off. I just don't think they can. Can they keep it close, though? Probably. They have a defense that can easily get to Russell Wilson, and a defense that will limit his big plays. Their rush defense is good enough to limit Lynch. Also, the Vikings have extra rest in this game. I'll give them a good chance of covering.
Vikings 20 Seahawks 23 (MIN +5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4) @ Oakland Raiders (3-4) (OAK -1.5)
This is a bigger game for the Bucs, who can't afford to drop to 3-5 in a more competitive NFC, but the Raiders are on a nice little stretch. Their only loss in the past month was a last-second loss to the undefeated Falcons in Atlanta. They've been playing with fire falling behind against Jacksonville, but took care of KC. The Buccaneers are good. Anyway, I'll go with a random historical fact, that the Raiders are 2-0 against the Bucs since Super Bowl XXXVII, and I'll take them here.
Buccaneers 17 Raiders 24 (OAK -1.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3) @ New York Giants (6-2) (NYG -3)
The last two matchups of these teams were interesting. In 2004, rookie Eli played his first good game of his career against the eventual 15-1 Steelers. In 2008, the Giants went to Pittsburgh and played 'Man's Football' in a 21-14 win, where the Giants got a safety down 14-12 to tie the game. Anyway, getting back to the present, neither team is more desperate than the other. The Giants defense has looked average, but their pass rush should get to Roethlisberger. On the other side, the Steelers rush defense should shut down the Giants rush offense, but that doesn't matter too much for them. Anyway, I like the Giants here to win another game against a good opponent, their specialty. I don't think the 2012 Giants will fall apart after a good start like the 2007, 2009 and 2011 vintages. They usually save falling apart for December in even years.
Steelers 19 Giants 24 (NYG -3)
Dallas Cowboys (3-4) @ Atlanta Falcons (7-0) (ATL -4)
Fun game. The Cowboys have, in the Romo era, twice taken down undefeated teams later in the year than this, beating the 9-0 Colts in 2006 and beating the 13-0 Saints in the Dome in 2009. I guess I can see something similar here. What makes me nervous in taking the Falcons (who have loads of matchup advantages with their good o-line and pass defense) is their flaccid play at home, but their due to break out in a home game, and I don't trust Romo in primetime. I'll take my chances here with another favorite.
Cowboys 20 Falcons 30 (ATL -4)
Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) @ New Orleans Saints (2-5) (NO -3)
Another interesting game. They haven't played that much through the years. The last time they met was early in 2009, and the Saints rolled against Kevin Kolb. A lot has changed since then. They played a memorable Divisional Game in the Dome back in 2006. Anyway, the Eagles are better than the team that showed up last Sunday, and the Saints just aren't that good. For the first time, their offense even looked lost against Denver. Philly's new defense looked awful on Sunday, but I can see them having some success against everyone except for Jimmy Graham. I like the Eagles in these bigger games, strangely. I'll take them to give the Saints, shockingly, their third home loss.
Eagles 31 Saints 27 (PHI +3)
Enjoy the Games!!!
