Thursday, April 30, 2020

My Top 50 QBs: #16 - Ben Roethlisberger




#16 - Ben Roethlisberger




Ben Roethlisberger has had about 4-5 different careers in just over a decade. At first, he was the talented young QB who was on the perfect team to limit has stats, accentuate his features and win a lot of games. Then he became something of a renegade who rode motorcycles and lead dramatic 4th quarter comebacks - the guy who 'plays well when it matters.' Then he came something of a pariah, whether it be his off-the-field issues, or the criticism he got for not being Brady, Manning, Rodgers or Brees. Finally, starting around 2012-13, when the off-field issues, for better or worse, got further away in the rear-view mirror, and the team started to suffer around him and needed Ben's brilliance to get them to .500, he started finally, truly, getting the credit and labels he deserved all along: a fantastic, stellar QB well on his way to the Hall of Fame, someone who combined traditional QB brilliance and a unique style all his own. Ben Roethlisberger is a sure-fire hall of famer; he became that probably around 2011. What he's done since is the icing on a fantastic cake.

To put it this way, Ben Roethlisberger is statistically a better QB than you think he is, and he is all the other things you think he is. He's a perfect intersection of a tough, scrambler, play-maker, who keeps plays alives and plays like we all did in the backyard, and the exacting brilliant mind of the modern QB. You can argue Rodgers is all these things as well, but Roethlisberger, for no real reason, seems to be perceived more on the vagabond playmaker side. Not that I blame people. Roethlisberger was that guy originally. It was hard to initially look past the guy who was built like a TE. When he started in the league in 2004, at 6'5" and 240 lbs., there was no one like him. He wasn't asked to do a lot initially, on a supremely talented team with a great running game, two great receivers and a great defense. Still, add a normal QB to a team with three great areas, and they probably don't go 13-0. What was hidden behind that record, and his style, was a player who was already showing signs of the dominance he's shown since.

In his rookie season, Ben Roethlisberger was a borderline Top-5 QB in the NFL. He had a 98.1 QB rating, a Y/A of 8.9, and completed 66.4% of his passes. Almost every rookie QB suffers in those areas of play. He was an incredibly gifted passer, who yes was asked to throw 25-30 times a game, but so was Mark Sanchez. Ben Roethlisberger as a rookie was in a different time zone. He had the best rookie season for a QB in NFL history, and then went on to have one of the best 2nd seasons if you remove Dan Marino from the discussion. Roethlisberger essentially repeated his rookie season, but this time added some black ink to his resume, leading the NFL in TD%, Y/A (again, at 8.9) and Y/C. Now he was easily a Top-5 QB. Then, somehow, his ability seemed to peak.

We do have to discuss the darker, more mysterious part of Roethlisberger's career. Starting from his motorcycle accident in the 2006 preseason, through his 2008 season that ended in a Super Bowl run, Roethlisberger seemed to go squarely into the direction of 'big, burly playmaker' side. He had a bad year in 2006, the one truly off year of his career. He then had a season in 2007 that looks better on paper than it did in reality (104.1 passer rating, with 32 TDs and 11 INTs, but threw the ball just 404 times), and then had the reverse in 2008. His 2008 season was a strange one. He had the good fortune of playing with the best defense in the NFL, but he also was at the time right before the Steelers became WR heaven again, and the first year his pass blocking was anything other than good. He had a bad year statistically, but made his mark with late drive after late drive.



From there, Roethlisberger let it fly in 2009. For the first time in his career the Steelers defense was something other than excellent. He had some great receivers in prime Santonio Holmes and a break-out Mike Wallace. The running game was transitioning. They had to have Roethlisberger throw. For the first time he threw 500 passes in a season. And as people should have predicted, he did really well, completing 66.6% of his passes, for 4,300 yards, another Y/A over 8.0, and a passer rating over 100. And then came last year, when he did all of that, but even more. Again, gifted with a prodigious WR in Antonio Brown, Roethlisberger threw it even more, this time topping 600 yards, and was arguably the best QB in the NFL in the regular season, with 4,900 yards, with 32 TDs and a passer rating at 103.3. Ben Roethlisberger was, more than ever before, asked to be Drew Brees or Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, and was a Top-2 QB in the NFL.

That's really the hidden brilliance of Ben Roethlisberger. Take away the trappings and size and 'warrior' nature of his game, and what you have is a hyper-efficient player. In his 11 seasons, he had a QB rating over 97.0 seven times (admittedly, that is arbitrary), a Y/A over 8.0 five times, and for his career has completed 64.0% of his passes, with 41,000 yards and a career 94.0 passer rating. That's a profile that compares right there with the top QBs of his era, coming from a guy who has had iffy pass protection for nearly a decade now, playing outdoors city for a defensive-minded team in a defensive-minded division. Ben Roethlisberger has been so much more dominant than anyone really thinks. Yet, for those who have him shoe-horned into this 'clutch', 'winner' and 'non-stats' great, he is all those things too.

The Super Bowl drive is the one that will always be remembered, likely it will be Roethlisberger's A-Block highlight. There's a reason for that. His final throw was thrown with computer accuracy. The drive even started with a 10-yard holding penalty that pushed them to 1st and 20 from the 12. But to me the real signature drive was five weeks earlier, in Week 15, in Baltimore. The Steelers were 10-3. The Ravens were 9-4. The winner had the clear track to win the AFC North. The Steelers were the NFL's best defense across the board in 2008, but this game was in Baltimore and all the stats the Steelers' defense was #1 in, if you limit to just home games, the Ravens were #1. The Steelers took over with 3:30 to go, on their own three yard line, down 9-6. Roethlisberger led a classic drive in the most hostile of environments, for a TD that won the Steelers the game and the division. It was an amazing drive, the winning throw made off a completely busted play when Roethlisberger had no one open, then scrambled left, found nothing, shook off a tackle and then went back right and fired a pass to Holmes. It was an incredible play in an incredible game. It was everything that encompassed Ben Roethlisberger. A winner, sure, but an incredibly patient, prescient and precise QB.

Tuesday, April 28, 2020

My Top 50 QBs: #17 - Ken Stabler




#17 - Ken Stabler


Who embodied the Raiders? Sure, the obvious answer is Al Davis. There's no real debate there; how could anyone be a better renegade than a man who successfully sued the league he was a part of. But beyond Al, on the field, it doesn't get more Silver and Black than Kenny Stabler.

There were better players on the Raiders - a franchise with a score of HOFers, including Stabler's own teammates like Jim Otto, Art Shell, Gene Upshaw, Willie Brown and Fred Biletnikoff, but those guys were known more for their ability than their personality. Stabler was the opposite, which made him what the Raiders should be.

There are so many Ken Stabler stories that people don't even know, which is amazing given how many stories there are about his antics and personality and championship-level partying. Ken Stabler was Joe Namath without the press, but with as much game. He was a noted partyer, drinker, and lovemaker. The stores of him in a bar the night before the game, playbook in one hand, and mug of beer in the other. The best part was 12 hours later he was leading a team that all they did was win 10+  games year after year.

Stabler may not have made the Hall of Fame (we'll get to that in a minute), but make no mistake of his deserving case. In his 10 years in Oakland (1970-1979), he went 69-26-1 as a starter, had a Y/A of 7.7, threw TDs on 6.0% of his passes; and had a QB rating of 80.2 with a completion percentage of 59.9%. Those are, given this was the 1970's, outrageous numbers.

For that decade, a decade where the Raiders made 5 AFC Championship Games and won a Super Bowl, Stabler ranked #3 in TDs (behind Tarkenton and Staubach), #1 in Y/A, #4 in passer rating (behind Staubach, Bob Griese and Bert Jones), and #1 in completion percentage. Please, don't tell me he didn't deserve a HOF spot. Maybe he wasn't as good as Staubach, Bradshaw, Griese and Tarkenton, but he absolutely needs to be in the Hall of Fame






Stabler's best season personally also happened to be the best season for the Raiders. After losing three straight AFC Championship Games in 1973, 1974 and 1975, the Raiders entered 1976 with a can't win the big one label. That year, the Raiders went 13-1 and then rolled through the playoffs. They ended the season 16-1, the second best record in teh Super Bowl era at the time. Stabler himself had a season that was basically unheard of in 1976.

In 1976, Stabler completed 66.7% of his passes (basically like if someone went 73% in 2015), with a TD% of 9.3 of his throws (2nd best all time behind Manning in '04), and a passer rating of 103.4. Having someone play the whole season and do that in the 70's was like what Marino did in 1984.

At his best he was that good. At his best he was also that infamous. Yet despite the hard partying, the great play, he was always a bit under the radar. He was not as notable a womanizer as Joe Namath, and not as notable a player as Staubach; but he was the closest anyone came to doing both at the same time. Kenny Stabler had the memorable games, the memorable personality, and the great performance. Can we get this guy in teh Hall of Fame please!

It is amazing that for a franchise with the amount of success as the Raiders, they've never had a QB make it to the Hall of Fame. Stabler should be the first, and he likely is the best QB the franchise has ever had. He was a Raider for life, a guy that Al Davis swore by; that his more talented, lettered teammates revered. Ken Stabler lived a good life, and I wish he rest in peace; or rest in action, living life and having fun like he always had.

Sunday, April 26, 2020

My Top 50 QBs: #18 - Jim Kelly




#18 - Jim Kelly




Jim Kelly had a weird career, he's remembered for being innovative, the QB of the NFL's second modern offense. In a way, all current offenses are combinations of the West Coast Offense, and the no-huddle. Things have been molded and adapted, but the no-huddle influence really stemmed from Kelly and the Bills. Jim Kelly, though, is also remembered for losing, but not in a bad way. No, there is no QB who's career is remembered more fondly for failing. In that way, Jim Kelly has led a blessed life. He's the one QB who was so bad at winning the Super Bowl, people realized just how good you have to be to get there.

We must remember that despite their 'high flying' reputation, the Bills were the tallest midget, or the thinnest kid at fat camp. The NFL in the early-90's was at a new offensive valley. The 80's were a rebellion to the dead-ball era of the 70's, and the 90's was defense getting its revenge. The Bills were the best offense, but that was still a team that ran the ball more than half the time. Jim Kelly never threw for 4,000 yards. He never threw the ball 500 times in a season. Part of this was due to him missing 1-3 games in many seasons, but his numbers look more like a 'game manager' in the 2000s, but that goes to the era he played in.

We don't mentally think that the early 90's need to be looked at a little more closely when judging passing statistics, but they must. Kelly's career 60.1% completion percentage, his four year stretch with an 89.6 passer rating, these are impressive numbers. Kelly played in Buffalo, let's remember as well. Compared to his peers, Kelly was a consistent 10-30% better than the average QB, which in the NFL was a lot.



Jim Kelly got the luxury of having Andre Reed, but it was definitely more the other way around in retrospect. He also took control of an offense with a mediocre offensive line, that played in Buffalo, and made it something special. The Bills was 13, 13, 11 and 12 games in his prime, and for his career, Jim Kelly was 101-59, basically averaging 10 wins a year for a franchise that has gotten to 10 wins just twice since he left. We must also remember that Jim Kelly is missing a good 3-4 years of his career due to his playing in the USFL first.

Jim Kelly was one of the people that legitimized the USFL, along with Steve Young, and while Young outclassed him, Young also had the better versions of everything Kelly did. Young had the best WR of all time, instead of a guy who probably doesn't deserve he Hall of Fame nod he got. Young had the best offensive system, instead of the second best. Steve Young was better, but circumstance and situation elevated him and supressed Kelly.

What Jim Kelly also did was throw deep, going against the natural trend of the league to embrace the West Coast Offense and go shorter and shorter. Kelly did not rely on YAC, he relied on his own brilliant right arm, and the players around him. Of course, he never did win a Super Bowl though.

Again, Kelly, and the Buffalo Bills in general, are the one team to largely escape criticism for not winning a Super Bowl. That's what happens when you do something no one else has - get to four in a row. Jim Kelly probably should have won that first one. Obviously, if Scott Norwood hits a field goal he does. Is his legacy any worse because his kicker missed a kick? No, as it should be. He's just lucky to be the one guy where that is the case.

Jim Kelly was a great QB who ran an innovative offense, but more than that, he's a symbol and a reminder to the more analytically-inclined NFL fans. He's a reminder that the early-90's shared far more similarities to the 1970's than it does the 2000s, and he's also a reminder that there is hope that a QB can be judged not by the hardware on his fingers, but the brilliance of the footballs that spun out of them.

My Top 50 QBs: #19 - Terry Bradshaw




#19 - Terry Bradshaw




Terry Bradshaw can continue to count his rings, all four of them, and tell people and have them listen, that he is one of the best QBs of all time. He would have a point. Not because he has four Super Bowl rings, tied with Joe Montana and Tom Brady for most all time. No, but because he was actually a key cog in a Steelers machine that was surprisingly good on offense for much of their run. Yes, Bradshaw was surrounded by more talent than maybe any player ever, from coaching staff, to defense, to receivers, but Bradshaw was a more important part of that machine than people who deried him for being a 'winner' remember, and less than people who praise him.

Terry Bradshaw was plainly not a good QB for a long stretch of time, starting from his rookie season when he threw 24 INTs to just 6 TDs. No matter of converting from dead-ball era stats would change that. Up through 1974, the Steelers first Super Bowl season, Bradshaw was a plainly bad QB riding the wave of the Steel Curtain. However, something changed in 1975, not only with Bradshaw but with the team. The Steelers ranked in scoring offense from 1975-1979 fifth, fifth, seventh, fifth and first. The defense remained good, but the Steelers that won the last three Super Bowls were more than just the Steel Curtain, they were an offense as well.

If we cut out the initial growing pain of that early Bradshaw, the same player who was nearly benched for Joe Gilliam, Bradshaw looks like quite a respectable statistical marvel. He averaged 21 TDs to 17 INTs between 1975-1981, with a y/a of 7.7. These weren't the best stats of those days, but the Steelers offense was a high risk proposition, throwing deep than most teams of that era. Bradshaw had the help of two future Hall of Famers, but neither player is one of the better WRs in the Hall of Fame - yes, neither Lynn Swann or John Stallworth were ever that great. Bradshaw raised his game in those years, putting up seasons that would equal that of Staubach and Stabler, playing in a tougher environment, in a division where passing was suppressed due to weather and cookie-cutter stadiums with horrific turf fields.



I've put it off for long enough, let's just get to that playoff and Super Bowl career. Much like Troy Aikman, another QB who is both overrated and underrated by his Super Bowl rings depending on how people view those things, Terry Bradshaw did seem to raise his game in the playoffs. The Steelers threw more in the playoffs, and largely to great results. In his four Super Bowl wins, Bradshaw had passer ratings above 100, with 9 TDs and 4 INTs, In his last three Super Bowls, again in that 1975-1979 timeframe, he had a Y/A over 10. Some of that is credit to the ridiculous catches that Swann and Stallworth pulled off, but Bradshaw had some truly great performances in the playoffs.

His best may have arguably been his last, a playoff game in 1982 against Dan Fouts and the Chargers. The Steelers lost, but lost 28-31 with Bradshaw nearly out-gunning Fouts. Ol' Dan had the better game, but Bradshaw put up what would be considered a modern-day passing line, going 28-39 with 325 passes and 2 TDs. Bradshaw was the rare player who improved his stats across the board in the playoffs, with his completion percentage, yards-per-attempt, passer rating and TD-to-INT ratio all improving in January.

Therein lies the issue with Bradshaw. People who put him over try to denigrate his career for his average career passing stats (he did have an adjusted passer rating 10% above average) while shoving the Super Bowl rings aside. Those people are wrong as those playoff stats, coming in a rather sizable sample, are there. They actually happened, and Bradshaw did, by all accounts, get noticeably better in the playoffs. Of course the other side shoves away his clear issues with his overall resume and are blinded by the diamond-studded rings. Neither side is right, but neither is wrong as well.

My Top 50 QBs: #20 - Bob Griese





#20 - Bob Griese



Bob Griese was handed success on a silver platter in a way. He was given the luxury of playing with two great running backs, a great defense that consistently was near the top of the NFL in basically all defensive stats, and was given a truly legendary Head Coach in Don Shula. In many ways people will discredit his career for those reasons. And it is an easy argument to make. Don't we often do the same with so many other QBs? Try to say it was all their teammates, all the luxuries that they were given? Well, there is two reasons why despite being handled success, Griese deserves to be a Top-20 QB of all time. First, back in the 70s, loaded teams and franchises were all around; teams that ran the ball, played defense, and both suppressed the stats of their great QBs, and also stole a lot of their credit. And second, Griese was still the key piece of the success of the Miami Dolphins.

When you put the 1970s glasses on and take another look at the career stat-line of Bob Griese, you see a player who was consistently throughout his entire career 20%-30% above average. Let's remember that unlike in  baseball, where players are routinely 80%-90% above average (OPS+ or ERA+ in the 180's or so), that doesn't happen in football. QBs are more bunched together - and Griese stat-line and years above the 120 Passer Rating+ (same methodology), puts him in elite company. Bob Griese, when you remember he played in the NFLs version of deadball, was statistically a great QB.

Don Shula had a connection with Bob Griese that was more understated than his relationship with his other two all-time great QBs (again, two men who are further up the list). Shula called him the 'thinking man's QB', a player who was 'ahead of the rest of his peers.' Griese was not playing the mad bomb style of so many of his contemporaries, and that suppressed his stats more so than even. Bob Griese was not just a great QB, he was the best 'game manager' of all time in the best sense of the word.



For the decade of the 70s, the same decade that spawned the legacies of so many legends (including four different contemporaries to come), Griese ranked #3 in completion percentage (58.4%), #3 in y/a (7.5), #2 in passer rating (82.5). All the player ahead of him on those lists are still to come. He was, at worst, the 3rd best QB of the 70s statistically, and this was a decade of Staubach, Bradshaw, Stabler and the last vestiges of Tarkenton and Roman Gabriel. This was a bountiful era of QBs playing for dominant teams that all had good running games and receivers and defenses, and Griese separated himself from that list.

Griese is also famous for what he wasn't. He didn't throw deep as regularly as some of his contemporaries (Bradshaw, especially). He didn't have notable playoff moments like some of those other guys. There were no miracles worked, like Staubach's Hail Mary, or Stabler's Sea of Hands, or Bradshaw's Immaculate Reception. In fact, Griese's playoff career is littered with performances that accentuated the other parts of the team. In Super Bowl VIII, the year after the undefeated season, Griese was 6-7 for 73 yards, and the Dolphins ran it 53 times and won 24-7. The year before he was 8-11 for 88 yards in a 14-7 win. However, there were a few gems, like his game in Kansas City in 1971.

I don't like mentioning the undefeated season primarily because Griese wasn't the starting QB for most of the year - Earl Morrall was. But is that really a knock against him? Griese played 6 games and won all of them, then started the playoffs and won all of those. It was not a great year for Griese, but the year after he started 13 games, went 12-1, with a 84.3 rating (again, great for 1973), and the Dolphins won another Super Bowl. Bob Griese was handed the keys to a Ferrarri, but drove it around twists and turns and continued to steer it at top speed.

Many QBs could have succeeded with a defense and running game that Bob was given - few would have succeeded to the historic levels that Griese did. We look back and try to take away from what Griese did. He had a great running game. He played for Shula. He had a top defense. All true, but all true of so many others. What Bob Griese did really was replay Tom Brady's 2001-2006 portion of his career, but do it when no one else was ale to see the value in doing that, in riding the coattails of greatness but raising it just one step further than most could.


My Top 50 QBs: #30-21

30.) Donovan McNabb



Donovan McNabb was a lot better than people will remember. He was a lot better especially at the things people thought he was bad at. Donovan McNabb was incredibly careful with the ball, throwing interceptions on just 2.2% of his throws (a great figure for the early to mid 00's). He was better at evading sacks than almost any 'running' QB. He was also better at making competent-at-worst offenses out of nothing receivers. For most of his career, he was throwing to Todd Pinkston, James Thrash and Fred-Ex Mitchell. The one year he was given a motivated, play-nice Terrell Owens, he had an awesome year and led his team to the Super Bowl. His 11-years in Philadelphia will never be remembered by the people that cheered him on as much as it should, but we should all remember just how good Donovan McNabb was. He and Andy Reid made a really nice duo for 10-years. It all fell apart rapidly, but he's easily the best modern-era QB the Eagles ever had. Donovan McNabb was a lightning rod way more than anyone with his success, his ability and his performance ever should have been.


29.) Eli Manning




Everyone from here on out either is, will be, or should be in the Hall of Fame - and we start off with the QB who will get in but maybe shouldn't, but let's not pretend that means he isn't good. Eli Manning has been the most polarizing QB of the modern era, mainly because his play has necessitated it. How else do you explain a QB having a passer rating at the time below 80.0 winning a Super Bowl in an historic upset. How else do you explain a guy going from having one of the better full seasons when you count postseasons in 2011, to having a passer-rating under 70.0 in 2013? Eli Manning is unexplainable. At his best, he was easily a Hall of Fame worthy QB. For Eli's benefit, two of those periods of 'best' were four-game stretches in January and February. The Eli Manning regular season experience has been more or less than of a #8-#12 level QB for most of his career, but he's had enough peaks and enough handful-of-game stretches where that touches #3-#1. Eli Manning will never be underrated. Hard to be that when your best games are in your highest profile games, and your team misses the playoffs enough times that the natural regression over a bunch of playoff games (see: Rodgers, Aaron) brings that back to earth. Eli Manning has been dependable, has been very good in late-game situations, has elevated the level of his players around him, and has been able to succeed at times with marginal running games and o-lines. Succeed is a relative term, but Eli has shown an ability to do all these things at least once - and twice in January and February.


28.) Daryle Lamonica



Placing Daryl was really tough. He was really a starter for just six seasons - but then again, his fellow Raider Rich Gannon made this list with just four real seasons. Lamonica was a very accomplished player. In his Raiders career, he was 62-16-6 as a starter. He threw a bunch of TDs, didn't throw (for the 70's) that many INTs, and threw for a bunch of yards. Lamonica also held his value better than contemporary AFL QBs that made the transition into the merged NFL. Lamonica was also a great playoff QB, improving his stats across the board - including a great INT% given the era. The Raiders of that time had some great players on defense and at o-line, but this was before Casper and the only reliable option he had was Biletnikoff. Lamonica is another player who was just overlooked due to having more 'interesting' competition - mainly that of Namath. Statistically, Lamonica is better and it isn't very close. Both made a Super Bowl, and while Lamonica lost it was to one of the best teams of all time, and overall had far better playoff success. Out of the three great Raider reclamation projects (Daryl, Gannon, Plunkett), Lamonica was the best. Al Davis, Jim Otto, Gene Upshaw, Art Shell. All of these guys overshadowed Daryl, but his importance on those early Raiders teams shouild not be forgotten.


27.) Warren Moon



It is hard to separate Warren Moon's playing career from his historical legacy. Warren Moon was the first African-American QB to really succeed at QB. He himself would say he was far from the first with the talent, but he was the first to truly make it. He begat Cunningham and McNabb, McNair, Culpepper, and to the point know where it isn't really a big issue. The one difference, and maybe this is why he really lasted and became such a great trailblazer, is that he wasn't played for athelticism, or as a 'dual-threat'; he was played, paid and persevered, because he was a great passer. Warren Moon came closest to making the run-and-shoot work. He had some amazing years, including the back-to-back stellar seasons in 1990-91. Despite it seeming recent, 1990-91 was a long time ago, and his 4,690 yard seasons were something out of the future at the time. Moon is a deserving Hall of Famer on his playing career alone, but his legacy gets deservedly bumped for what he represented. Let's not forget he lost years of his career playing in the CFL. His career in the NFL started at 28, he peaked at 34-35, he had a long tail to end his career of slightly mediocre play, but that peak is good enough to be one of the best 25 to date. It may have been better had he been in the NFL the whole time. In that way, his career is a lot like...


26.) Philip Rivers



In many ways, Philip Rivers is the anti-Eli Manning. Forget the fact they were basically traded for each other, but Rivers has been good in all the ways Eli has not. Rivers has been far more consistent, a more accomplished passer in statistically and performance-wise in the regular season. He has been the QB of teams that went 13-3 and 14-2. He has been on multiple occassions, one of the Top-3 QBs in the NFL (2008, 2009, 2013), including leading the league in Y/A three straight years. He's piled up 'black ink', including leading the NFL in completion percentage twice, yards once (on the way in 2015), yards per completion once, and passer rating once. He';s done it all... except have a good 3-4 game stretch in January. However, unlike Manning, or Rodgers (2011 onwards), or other guys who have not fared well in the playoffs, his stats match someone who has not been a good performer. He hasn't been unlucky, he's just been plain bad in a lot of those games. He was bad in his one-and-done's. He was gritty playing on a torn ACL in the 2007 AFC Championship, but it showed with his performance. Rivers is better than Manning because the regular season makes up 80%-90% of a player's career, but had he had Manning's playoff career, he may be well in the Top-15 of all time. People I guess feel the Manning vs. Rivers debate is over - and in a way it is. The Giants got what they wanted: 2 Super Bowls. But in terms of who was actually the better player, it was Rivers - and depending on how much you feel those 8 games matter for Eli, it ranges from a lot better to just marginally better. But either way, it was better.


25.) Matt Ryan




His career will always be undershadowed - assuming he never wins a Super Bowl - by both the plethora of all time greats whose peak he crossed paths with, and the fact that the man drafted the same year as him as won a Super Bowl. But let's not lose sight of just how good Matt Ryan has been in his career. His 2016 season will go down as one of the best seasons in NFL history, with a sterling 117.4 passer rating (higher than Brady's 2007 season). I don't think anyone thought he had that in him, and he was amazing, a deserving MVP.  I think his rookie season has also somehow become underrated. Michael Turner got all the headlines, but as a rookie Matt Ryan was arguably one of the 8 best QBs in the NFL. He inherited a team trying to come back from the Mike Vick mess, and with Michael Jenkins and a then unkown Roddy White, proceeded to have a really good season. Matt Ryan's criticism are obvious, in that he's not as good as Rodgers, Manning, Brady, Roethlibserger, Brees. Well, most people aren't, but most QBs are also worse than Matt Ryan. Had his team not choked away a 28-3 lead (still can't believe that actually happened), he may have gone even further up the list. He has continued his top level of play for a few more seasons now, and while his resume is similar to a Philip Rivers, he has that 2016 season, and that MVP to rest on.


24.) Sunny Jurgenson



While Dawson was dominating the AFL in the mid-60's, Jurgenson was doing the same thing to the more-established NFL. His team wasn't as good as Dallas, or Green Bay, or even the LA Rams, but the Redskins were a consistent winner without much talent surrounding good ol' Sonny Boy. Between 1961 and 1968, Jurgenson led the NFL in completions four times, yards five times, TDs three times, and passer rating twice. Jurgenson was in many ways playing a different sport than most of the other 'winner' QBs of the time, passing shorter and more accurately. Jurgenson was the player most thought Archie Manning was - a guy playing for a franchise that really didn't given him much to work with, succeeding to all-pro levels. Jurgenson retired with the all-time lead in passer rating in the modern era, and again did this without hall of famers surrounding him like the other great QBs of his day.


23.) Ken Anderson



It has become almost passe to say that Anderson is the best QB not in the Hall of Fame. He likely will get in the Hall of Fame through the Veteran's Committee sometime soon. It's good too that he will, because it is hard to argue Anderson, a man who was the first QB to thrive and play well in Bill Walsh's offense, was not deserving. Ken Anderson has done more in his career with less around him than nearly any other QB in his era. Anderson had four different seasons that would play well in the 1990's, let alone his own era. His 1974-75 seasons, are something absurd for that era, averaging 62% completions, along with Y/A above 8.0, and passer ratings around 94.0. Those were Troy Aikman seasons from 20 years later, not seasons in the heart of deadball playing for a Northern team in an open-air stadium. Anderson then almost had a Kurt Warner-esque dip in the middle of his career, but rebounded with an even better two-season stretch in 1981-82, this time he averaged a 65% completion percentage, and a 97.0 passer rating. These are not normal seasons for QBs of that day not named Marino or Montana. Anderson was also a pretty good playoff QB, with a career 93.5 rating, albeit in only 6 playoff games. Anderson did everything well, did them in different eras with different coaches, and at his best he was putting up stats that Troy Aikman would blush at. That's good enough to be in the Hall of Fame, guys.


22.) Kurt Warner



No QB may have been harder to place than Warner. Let's state the facts first. Warner is a two-time league MVP. Not many QBs have done that, and the one's that have (Manning, Favre, Montana, Rodgers, Brady, Young) are, spoiler alert, in the Top-20 of this list. Warner led two moribund franchises to the Super Bowl, and put up some of the best playoff stats of all-time. Warner was the key cog in an offense that was revolutionary, that put up volume stats that hold up 15 years later in a wildly more conducive to offense era. Those are all pluses. Kurt Warner was also bad enough in 2002-03 that the Rams were almost forced to release him. It is easy to call Warner's career one of peaks and valleys, but we should qualify that. The peaks were being the best QB in the league ('99-'01), and a Top-5 QB ('07-'09), and the valleys, apart from 2002, weren't all that bad. His QB Rating+ (adjusted for league conditions), was only below 100 (average) one time in a season that he started more than 2 games. He was anywhere from 106-111 in his first three years in Arizona, where injuries held him back. Once he stayed healthy, and the team got slightly better, he was a consistent QB again.  Kurt Warner was as good as we remember him at his best, but he was also better than the player we remember him being at his worst. Guys who complete 65.5% of their career passes, with a career Y/A of 7.9, and a career passer rating of 93.7, playing mostly before passing stats exploded, is a player deserving of a Hall of Fame nod. Add in the playoff dominance, two league MVPs, and you get what was a shoo-in.


21.) Len Dawson



I'm stretching my 'Super Bowl Era' rules with this and the next pick. Len Dawson played many years before the mgerger; his best year's came right before or during the merger; his stats were not as good after the merger. Yet, there are two reasons why I want to include him, and put him so highly. First, it wasn't like he played in the 40's-50's. The per-merger AFL was far closer to the NFL than, say, the AAFC was. Second, his stats were so amazing pre-merger, far better than Namath, or Lamonica, or the other great AFL QBs. Len Dawson also didn't drop nearly as much as some of his contemporaries. Len Dawson was the Peyton Manning of the AFL, black ink on his stat page everywhere. From 1962-1968, Dawson led the NFL in completion percentage six times, passer rating six times, TDs four times, and yards per attempt three times. The league's merged the year after, and while the black ink stopped, his passer rating adjusted for era was on average 12% better than league average. Dawson dominated the AFL because that was his peak, but he was pretty darn good in the merged league, leading a Super Bowl champion that first year. Becuase he didn't win with a guarantee, he''ll always be overlooked, by Len Dawson was, and will always be, the best QB ever to play in the AFL.

Friday, April 24, 2020

My Top 50 QBs: #40-31

40.) Bert Jones



Here's another guy who would have been a lot better with better teammates. Bert Jones had the ability to be the best QB in the NFL, but was in a situation devoid of much talent in Baltimore in the 70's. They had left the Unitas and Shula era, and would end devolving into a situation where they moved to Indianapolis. That is the life Bert Jones had to play in, and my word was he able to play in it. His season in 1976 was one of the best dead-ball era NFL QB seasons, something that guys like Staubach, Stabler and Bradshaw would have loved to put up. To have a deserved 100+ QB rating in the 70's is like having a 115+ today. Bert Jones should have been better because he should have had better teammates, but in the 70's, if you have a bad owner who doesn't spend and a team that doesn't draft well, there's only so much you can do.


39.) Rich Gannon



Gannon's career is in a way like Kurt Warner, one with incredible highs but also significant lows. Now, it wasn't as good as Warner's when both were at their best, and unlike Warner, Gannon had a more surprising background. Warner came out of nowhere. Gannon just came out of mediocrity. For years in Minnesota and Kansas City, Rich Gannon was a mediocre, Matt Cassel-level QB. Of course, Matt Cassel wouldn't be in a Top-200 QBs list. What makes Rich Gannon special is that 4-year run in Oakland from 1999-2002, when he was a Top-25 QB of all time. Guys with multiple all-pro seasons, a deserved MVP, and a 4,600 yard passing season in 2002, are right at home in a Top-50 QBs of all time. Rich Gannon masterfully ran that offense along with Jon Gruden. He revived Tim Brown's career, extended Jerry Rice's, and turned guys like Charlie Garner and Roland Williams and Jerry Porter into legitimate threats. If you get Belichick on a good day, he will tell you how much of the Raiders short-passing game they used so well in 2002 he took and co-opted into what the Patriots have used since. Rich Gannon used so many years wandering the midwest, but in that time he cultivated enough knowledge to still run offenses to an exacting level. His downfall in '03 and '04 was shocking in how quick it was, but for a guy who's best years started when he was 34-37, it wasn't that surprising. Gannon developed slowly, but he definitely developed.


38.) John Hadl



10 years before Fouts exploded in San Diego, there was a QB coached by Coryell's mentor that basically did the same thing. John Hadl was great, throwing deep ball after deep ball into the waiting arms of Lance Alworth and co. He in many ways was the 60's version of Jim Hart, running an offense that was 10 years before its true prime, where both it was still in development and also ahead of the rest of the league. Hadl put up TD and Y/A numbers that were crazy for the 60's and 70's, and while he was never the most accurate, that was never really going to be a strong point for a system that relied a lot on 20-30 yard throws. Hadl will be remembered more fondly than Jim Hart and Bert Jones, other 60's-70's stars who never won a ring mainly because they never had a defense good enough, and Hadl was slightly better than those two.


37.) Joe Theismann



We remember Joe Theismann for two reasons: his leg getting broken in 1985, and his (mis)adventurous broadcasting career. We should also remember him for being an excellent QB, the bridge between the 'Over-the-hill Gang' Redskins under George Allen to the Joe Gibbs era. Theismann had some of the best early-80's season aside form all-timers like Marino and Montana. His 1983 season, with 29 TDs and an 8.1 y/a is good for a 97.0 passer rating, a pristine number for that era against that competition. Sure, we are partial to other parts of the Redskins legacy for that era, like Art Monk and Gary Clark and the various Hogs, but Theismann made it work early on. While Joe Gibbs is famous for winning three Super Bowls with three QBs, he may not have needed the 2nd QB if not for Theismann's injury. His career adjusted passer rating is 14% above average, which is a really good number (all-timers are look 25% above average). Joe Theismann's personal legacy is enhanced by the bad-luck injury, but his playing career shouldn't get short-changed for that.


36.) Steve McNair



Nothing was easy for Steve McNair. He came from a small town in Mississippi, had to play college at Division 1-AA Alcorn State, basically sat on the bench for two years, and had to be integrated to the starting line-up when his team was moving from Houston, to Memphis and finally Nashville. Through this time, McNair developed a undoing sense of leadership, commitment and intensity that if anything exceeded his already large bounty of talent. Starting in 1999, when the team finally settled on a stadium and a name that would last, it all came together. For a five year stretch, he was a Top-3 QB in the NFL - a stretch that was bookended by a Super Bowl season on one end, and an MVP season on the other. No season really said more about McNair than the 2002 team. By that point the run game with Eddie George had basically dried up, and it all was put on his shoulders. It took years of improving his craft but by then he had reached the stage that he could win games with his arms and brain. He led a Titans team from 1-4 to the AFC Championship Game, all while being somewhat banged up. That really was the lasting legacy of McNair, playing through pain, and letting his passion and poise take over. McNair's legacy is pretty well set in place. He fought an up-hill battle his whole career, but was in a rare situation that he got deserved credit for that as well. I don't think any QB got more credit for losing a Super Bowl than he did - but nothing better encapsulates McNair's career. They lost, but he left everything on the field.


35.) Jim Hart



Don Coryell was a great coach, a legend of the game, and while he is more famously tied to a certain QB still to come, what he did along with Jim Hart was something we shouldn't easily forget. In the middle of the 70's, competing with the likes of Dallas and St. Louis and Washington and Minnesota, the St. Louis Cardinals made the playoffs three straight years, mainly off the back of Jim Hart's brilliance. This bombs away offense makes his stats look pretty average in retrospect, but the personnel he had to work with was not close to that of Dan Fouts. Air Coryell was still in the development phase during this time, and it still had to work out a lot of kinks, but Hart made it go. What Hart also did amazingly well was limit sacks; a fearless thrower that flung the ball in the face of heavy rush game after game. Jim Hart, like so many mid-70's QBs, will be lost in the annals of history, back when defense and running were still more important, but he was a guy whose career was limited by circumstance, but what he and Coryell did together cultivated what Fouts would perfect.


34.) Russell Wilson



The last time I did this, I said that Wilson was following a Roethlisberger-like career, and while that is largely still true, he is nicely blending in a bit of Aaron Rodgers. Like Big Ben, Wilson was thrust into a perfect situation, with a great running game, incredible defense, and it led to a Super Bowl title in Year 2. Following that, Wilson slowly graduated from system player to incredible QB. Wilson's 2015 season was something special, ending with 34 TDs, and an NFL leading 110.1 passer rating. I don't think anyone thought Wilson had that in him. Last year was similar to Ben's mid career (2009 or 2012-2013) when he dragged weakened teams to respectable seasons based on his brilliance. Of course, Wilson continue that level of insanity, also cut his interceptions down (like Rodgers) and became a machine. He still is not as old or consistent as those guys, but the trajectory he is on easily would allow him to be another 10-15 spots further up (assuming there's no separate leap). Wilson has had the bad luck of having his best seasons when there are other great seasons, which has had him end up without an MVP, but even that seems a matter of when, not if.


33.) Joe Namath



There is no better way to trump up yourself more than be in New York and guarantee a win. That's really about it. Apart from that, it helps if you had a semi-memorable college career. I'm not saying that Joe Namath was a bad player. He wasn't; he was a very good player. But what he really is was an overrated player - if not a wildly overrated one. Joe Namath had two very good seasons, the last two seasons of the AFL before the merger. These are real seasons, worth considering. One's that ended in
Super Bowls - but they still represent two seasons. He passed for 4,000 yards in one of them, becoming the first player ever to do that. Still, it is hard to look at his stats page and realize that even when you convert for 1970's offensive levels, and the fact that his teammates were not good in the 70's, and not think that this is a guy that peaked at 26. For his career, he was 2% above average in adjusted passer rating, but that number is closer to 10% if you take away the last three years of his career when he was a mess. At his best, Joe Namath was a very good player, a legendary QB. Problem was 'his best' was far shorter than people remember.


32.) Tony Romo



Quick, who led the NFL in passer rating in 2014? Hint: it wasn't league MVP Aaron Rodgers, he of the 38-to-5 QB to INT. No, it was Tony Romo, the guy who complted 69.9% of his passes, threw for 34 TDs on just 435 throws, and had he not gotten injured for two games, the Cowboys likely get the #1 seed, and maybe make the Super Bowl. Tony Romo's 2014 season wasn't the start of a new Romo, it was the cap to an already great career. We haven't yet reached 'Hall of Fame' territory, and Romo's outside perception of a choker probably would restrict him anyway, but with all the focus we spend on his mistakes, dating back to bobbling a field goal hold, we overlook the brilliance. Tony Romo's career stats are basically a 2000's version of Steve Young. Of course, Young doing what he did in the 90's is more impressive than Romo in the 00's-10's, but its not THAT different. Each of the 9 full years that Romo has been a starter, he has been between 6% better than league average and 30%, and more often closer to the higher number. And he's done this all on a team that mismanaged itself away from a dominant set of talent in 2008-09 to a team mostly bereft of it in 2012-13. It is still surprising that Romo's career ended so suddenly, with a Week 1 injury in 2016 thrusting Dak into the starting role, which he didn't give up. The NFLs loss (and yes, he would have been a starter in a lot of places if he wanted to push the matter in 2017) is everyone elses gain as he's transitioned into being the best new announcer in decades.


31.) Roman Gabriel



He's the first of a handful of QBs who have a large chunk of their career that played out before the Super Bowl era. I am counting those stats and team results as legitimate if it came in the NFL (and not AFL), so that helps Gabriel a lot here. His stats weren't as good as his contemporaries, and his early career instructions were basically to not screw up and allow the Fearsome Foursome to do their thing. There were so many more storied teams in the NFL/NFC at the time in Green Bay, Dallas, Minnesota, and the Colts for the beginning bit, that Gabriel's mad-bomber exploits are somewhat forgotten. But all that should change by his two great seasons. In 1969, he had a INT% of 1.8%, which is a number that would be great in 2015, let alone 1969. Then, in 1973, for a bad Eagles team, he led the league in everything, putting up one of the best dead-ball (1969-1979) era QB seasons. Gabriel is easily the best Rams QB before Warner, and still has enough of that mythic status to make up for a bad tail end.

My Top 50 QBs: #50-41

Re-doing this partially because I wanted to update the modern players that have moved and shaken their way up the list, and also because I want to right a few wrongs from teh first list, and finally because I want to actually finish it this time (e.g. not stop at #8).

50.) Patrick Mahomes

Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes an NFL great in the making - Sports ...

Yes, it has only been two years, but the list of names for QBs that have won an MVP and led a Super Bowl winning offense is extremely short and stacked with Hall of Famers. Mahomes has had the best two-year start of any QB in NFL history, matching Marino for production and Brady (or Warner, I guess) for winning. He will rocket up this list in no time, but for now, even if he retires tomorrow and follow's his dad's footsteps as a pitcher, he is a Top-50 QB.


49.) Dave Krieg



My number 48 was a Seahawk. Quick spoiler, but my #46 is a Seahawk, but in between is the forgotten Seahawk. Most people will probably remember Jim Zorn over Krieg, but Dave Krieg, much like another Dave that was famous in the Emerald City, could do a few things really well. One is throw deep and the other is throw TDs. People like the use the black ink test, which is how many times a player led the league in anything, and Krieg has more black ink than you would think. He led the NFL in TD% three times, and led in completion percentage one year. For a guy who had limited team success, he also had limited team embarrassment, going 98-77 for his career as a starter, including 70-49 with Seattle. Krieg is now the third best QB in franchise history, but a franchise that did so little before Mike Holmgren came on board, that's a better position than you would think. Krieg had a really nice 4-5 year peak, and a long tail period that hurts his rate stats, but he's honestly perfectly at home in a Top-50 QB list, and through the period of this paragraph I've started to feel that I've underrated him.


48.) Jim Everett



Life isn't fair, and Everett staying on the Rams after they lost all their good players and collapsing until they would eventually move to St. Louis isn't fair, because it ruined the legacy of a guy who was good enough to lead the NFL in TDs in 1988 and 1989. Now, if Joe Montana was healthy enough to play 16 games, that doesn't happen, but at his best Everett was the standout player on offense for a playoff team. At his best Jim Everett was a really good QB, but one that will be remembered more because he threw a table at Jim Rome. To talk about that for a minute, obviously Everett came across poorly, as the prototypical 'dumb jock' with teh short fuse; but no one came across worse than Jim Rome, who kept on repeating that blindingly dumb 'Chris' line. Of course, the worst part of this whole thing was that Jim Everett should have taken it as a compliment, as Chris Evert is so much more accomplished than he is as a QB (or Rome as a broadcaster), no one should feel more insulted than her.


47.) Jim Plunkett



This is controversial as Plunkett was a plainly bad QB for a 5-6 year stretch with New England, even if you use 1970's passing adjustments. He was just bad, posting a passer rating just under 60. However, with Oakland, it all turned around. Still, his overall stats aren't great in totality, but Oakland didn't play a passer-rating friendly style with deep throws in a league that was becoming more addicted to teh Walsh-ian way. However, Plunkett does have those Super Bowl runs. I'm not in the mindset that Super Bowl and/or Playoff stats should completely outweight what one does in the regular season, but it does matter that Plunkett was great in the Raiders two Super Bowl runs, including a deserved Super Bowl MVP in 1980. The Raiders post Plunkett were mired in the QB wasteland until another outcast came and rescued them 15 years later (he's still to come), but the man who saw out the great Raiders era of dominance deserves a spot on this last, if only as the 1980's slightly less good Eli Manning.


46.) Matt Hasselbeck



Matthew had a really nice 5-year run with Seattle, with some good half-season performances in the two years preceding that, and a two-week renaissance in the 2010 playoffs. He's now doing what a lot of players on this list wouldn't do: live on as a backup, one without real hope of playing unless Andrew Luck gets hurt. Still, what he did in those five seasons, leading the Seahawks to five straight playoff seasons, and putting up nice playoff stats in taking them to their first Super Bowl, gets him his spot on the list. Matthew Hasselbeck passed Mark Brunell as the best ex-Favre backup (non-Rodgers edition) and it was a reunion with Holmgren that made it happen. He was a weird player who played and carried himself like an underdog despite him being one of the league's best and most present QBs for a 5-year period. He threw in a weird way that belied an actual brilliant arm that could throw with incredible touch. He was limited in part by a system that was slowly getting figured out, in part by receivers that could never stay healthy, and mostly in part by receivers that when healthy dropped the ball, a lot. Still, his memory should live on as a true professional. QBs that put up 5-year runs like Matt did from '03-'07 are not that common.


45.) Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford stays true to himself, loved ones by keeping ...

Fifteen years from now when Stafford is retired and HOF eligible, there will be such amazing debates. He has far outpaced so many pre-2000s QBs in pure numbers already, and given his young age when he startered, he will probably outpace people like Manning and Brady in all-time volume stats. He's also nowhere near as efficient as those guys (career 89.3 passer rating). He had the nice benefit of Calvin Johnson, but had the less nice benefit of mix-and-match OLs, numerous failed running backs, and the Matt Patricia era. He was having the best year of his career last year, at still just 31, before an injury cost him half the season. It remains to be seen how he'll recover and if he can ever escape Matt Patricia, or Detroit itself, and be able to play with a team that has a good foundation. All I'll say is a took a while but we've ended up getting a very good career out of Stafford, even if he never has the overall W-L record or playoff success. At the end, you can't just ignore 40,000 yards, 250 TDs and more success in Detroit than anyone else to date.



44.) Cam Newton

Image result for cam newton

Even if he doesn't re-sign anywhere and gets weirdly black-balled from the league, Cam is the most unique QB of the modern era, someone indestrible but still efficient. He has such a brilliant arm. He put up an epic season in 2015 that culminated with a 15-1 season and 500 points despite losing his best WR in the preseason. Newton somewhat came back in 2017, and was having a great year in 2018 with Norv Turner has a surprising talisman, before injuries beset him. If he does return and has a nice last six years or so, his eventual place will likely be 5-10 steps up, but the talent is always there to go even higher. Cam is a truly unique talent, the first QB who could actually last as a runner for a number of years. Newton runs one of the more unique offenses ever, because he is a truly unique player.


43.) Phil Simms



Phil Simms is a strange player who's memory is enhanced by the talent that was on his teams (mostly on defense), and that incredible 22-25 performance in the Super Bowl. He was mostly useless in all his other playoff seasons, but his 1986 set of games, including that Super Bowl, was Flacco in 2012-level. Then again, Simms was largely a better regular season QB than people remember. With limited offensive talent, he was a consistently good player for a long time. From 1984 through his retirement in 1993, his lowest passer rating was 74.6, after that was 78.1. He had a passer rating+ above 100 every year but his first two seasons. The only things to take away are that he was asked to do basically nothing, and he took a lot of sacks (something not reflected in that passer rating stat). Phil Simms is a better QB than people think, but let's not also overstate the 22-25 game. He wasn't a mediocre player with one great game, but he wasn't a truly great player either. That's an important distinction to make some times.


42.) Boomer Esiason


In his favor, Boomer Esiason won an MVP, led a Bengals franchise away from the dark ages for another decade, extending their relevance for another few years and even another Super Bowl appearance. He was also the first QB to really implement a no-huddle offense. His offense was revolutionary at the time, coming before the Bills did the same with the K-Gun. On the other side, he had a long fall in Arizona and New York that hurt his career stats. Not having great receiving options (I mean, Cris Collinsworth was arguably his best receiver in his career - and he was not that good) hurt his stats as well. Esiason never reached the heights that he could have on a better team, but with that no-huddle offense, his memory will lie on. Also, I have a personal soft-spot for him as one of the co-hosts of the great morning show on WFAN with Craig Carton. Easily the most accessible great QB in history.



41.) Randall Cunningham 



Cunningham's career was defined by his amazing athleticism, the first truly transcendant running QB, one good enough to fundamentally change the way defenses tried to stop him. But behind that athleticism was a really good player who was surrounded for most of his career by awful O-Lines and marginal offensive talent in Philadelphia. For a 6-year run from 1987-1992, Cunningham was one of the best QBs in the NFL playing with no one but a coked-up Cris Carter. Randall's career rennaissance in Minnesota was more due to having Randy Moss and a non-coked-up Cris Carter who had reformed his life, but that showed what Cunningham was capable of with better talent. He had limitations like his propensity to take sacks and he melted down in a few playoff games, but Cunningham started an offensive revolution that now a few guys have taken over.


About Me

I am a man who will go by the moniker dmstorm22, or StormyD, but not really StormyD. I'll talk about sports, mainly football, sometimes TV, sometimes other random things, sometimes even bring out some lists (a lot, lot, lot of lists). Enjoy.