Arizona Cardinals (4-0) @ St. Louis Rams (2-2) (ARZ -1.5)
I've picked one TNF game correctly so far and that was the only one that has really followed the formula of TNF's games past, where the home team dominates a sloppy game. I have no feel for this game. I think the Cardinals are good, but the Rams are quite good in that building. Jeff Fisher's defense could harass Kolb the way Wake and the Dolphins did. I'm almost chalking this down as a loss already for me. I'll go with the Rams to win a tight game, partly because I think they'll win in their first home prime-time game since Bush was president (that is NOT a lie), and also because I can't imagine the Cardinals actually being 5-0.
Cardinals 17 Rams 20 (STL +1.5)
Atlanta Falcons (4-0) @ Washington Redskins (2-2) (ATL -3)
This should be a fun game, and another good test for the Falcons. So far, a group that has not been too much of a sure thing on the road (the Smith/Ryan Falcons) have been dominant on the road. Here, they get another shot against Griffin, who's still looking for his first home win. I can really see this game going either way. That said, the Falcons giving just three seems like a good value. They're better than the Redskins, and should score a lot against that porous Redskins defense. I'm going with Atlanta to win, and because of that low line, cover.
Falcons 35 Redskins 27 (ATL -3)
Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) (PIT -3.5)
Interesting game. The Eagles are the worst 3-1 team in the NFL statistically (empirically, it is probably Minnesota), while Pittsburgh should finally get Polamalu and Harrison back. The last time these two teams met, the Eagles sacked Roethlisberger 8 times. I doubt they get him down that many times, but they still stop suprress what has quietly been quite a good offense in Pittsburgh. The other side is the more interesting one. The Steelers defense has been bad save for one game against a Jets offense. They get their guys back, and they'll need him. In the end, I don't think the Eagles are that much better than a finally healthy Pittsburgh team to give that many points in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are great at home, and I think we see that here.
Eagles 20 Steelers 23 (PHI +3.5)
Green Bay Packers (2-2) @ Indianapolis Colts (1-2) (GB -7)
Nice easy game for the Packers here. If they don't get 30 points here, then we have serious problems going forward with the Packers offense. The Colts are not that good anyway, but now will be in their first game without their coach (Thoughts & Prayers with you Coach Pagano). Some would think that this personal issue would inspire a team, but seeing from the Colts and Packers after their coach's had tragedies, or the Saints this year, that doesn't really happen. If Luck gets any time at all, he should be able to find holes in that secondary, but I doubt he gets too much time.
Packers 34 Colts 17 (GB -7)
Cleveland Browns (0-4) @ New York Giants (2-2) (NYG -9)
The Giants will either do one of two things: 1 - play a lazy game where they win with a late field goal, or 2 - blow the doors off the Browns. People like to point out the Giants playing lazy, slow games at home, but that isn't always true. In 2008-2010, they were notorious for smashing bad teams early in seasons. I can see that happening here. The case for the Browns is that they've been competitive, and have 10 days of rest against a team that played a SNF game, but I don't always buy that, especially if the team off the shorter rest is the better team playing at home.
Browns 13 Giants 27 (NYG -9)
Tennessee Titans (1-3) @ Minnesota Vikings (3-1) (MIN -5.5)
I like this spot for Tennessee. The Vikings are 3-1, but really have played just one good game. They needed two return TDs to beat Detroit, and OT to beat a bad Jags team. On the other side, Tennessee is probably better than they've shown. They've been blown out badly by three of the best teams in the NFL (Patriots, Chargers, Texans) and played the Lions about as well as Minnesota did. I think this line is too high, and I can see Chris Johnson having another big game. I think the Vikings win the game, but the Titans keep it rather close. That line is just too high for me to feel comfortable picking the Vikings.
Titans 20 Vikings 24 (TEN +5.5)
Miami Dolphins (1-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (3-1) (CIN -3.5)
On the other hand, this seems like too much respect for Miami after losing two games in OT. Yeah, they could easily be 3-1, but they are not. They just lost an emotional OT game and have to play another road game against the league's best hidden team. The Bengals are doing exactly what they did a year ago, winning all the games they should win. It might have helped them in a weird way to get blasted in Baltimore in Week 1. No one is really concentrating that they've won three games, two of which on the road. This seems like a clear undervaluation of a good team. The Bengals line should hold down the Dolphins pass rush, while the Bengals defense gets another chance to improve after a rough start.
Dolphins 17 Bengals 27 (CIN -3.5)
Baltimore Ravens (3-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-3) (BAL -6)
The last time these two teams squared off was the 2010 Wild Card Game, where teh Ravens drummed the Chiefs 30-7. Nothing much has really changed since then. The Chiefs are worse, as Matt Cassel is regressing to what he really is (a pick-prone QB that lacks pocket-presence). The Ravens defense is worse, but their offense is better. The Chiefs still haven't really stopped anyone, and I can't see them beating Baltimore. I also think this line is low. The Chiefs are not a good team. They had a close, lucky win against an 0-4 team, and outside of that they've lost by 16, 18 and 17. That's what I see from them here as well.
Ravens 31 Chiefs 13 (BAL -6)
Seattle Seahawks (2-2) @ Carolina Panthers (1-3) (CAR -3)
I wish the Seahawks were favorites by 3. I would have felt a lot more confident. I think Vegas, and the public in general, has kind of caught on that the Seahawks offense, at Russel Wilson, just isn't that good. The Panthers defense isn't either, but they should be able to hold down the Seahawks enough. The other side of teh ball pits a good defense against a volatile but good offense. It is really hard to make a good pick of how that matchup plays out. I'm leaning towards the Panthers, so I'll take them to win and cover (I would buy the half-point had I been actually betting here).
Seahawks 17 Panthers 23 (CAR -3)
Chicago Bears (3-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) (CHI -6)
Oh, mercy. Blaine Gabbert and the Jags offense was awful against the Bengals at home. What exactly will they do against the NFL's most active defense through four weeks. They might get some run-game going (at least more so than last week), but sooner or later, the Bears will take that away. On the other side, if Forte plays, that Chicago offense is easily good enough to score 20+. This spread is low, for some reason. I have a feeling one or two of my clear blowout picks (this, Ravens over Chiefs, Giants over Browns, the one coming up) falters, but that is okay if the others work out like I think they will.
Bears 27 Jaguars 10 (CHI -6)
Buffalo Bills (2-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (3-1) (SF -9.5)
This line seems high, but I can't relly make any sort of case for the Bills here. Their run game will probably have another innefective week. The 49ers run game is about as good as New England's (that's right, New England, despite what you have heard, did not invent running the football), and about as diverse. Their defense is much better. In the Bills losses, they've given up 100 points and turned the ball over 10 times. If their turnover number comes close to 5, then no way do they stay even close. The 49ers are too good to play a complacent game at home (especially after a complacent game two weeks ago). They get the win, and the cover, but I don't think the Bills embarrass themselves this time.
Bills 17 49ers 30 (SF -9.5)
Denver Broncos (2-2) @ New England Patriots (2-2) (NE -7)
It is easy to overreact to what just happened. The Patriots just scored 45 second half points. They just ran for 200 yards and gained 500 yards. They just had their QB throw for 300+ yards and 3 TDs. Apparently, they've reinvented the way offense is played, and what transpired in Weeks 2 and 3 are irrelevant. Of course, the Broncos just had a game where they scored 31 second half points (in fewer possessions), gained over 500 yards and had their QB throw for 300+ yards and 3 TDs. Yet, what is people's reaction about that game: It was the Raiders. Well... It Was the Bills. Anyway, getting to this game. The Patriots aren't suddenly the best team in the NFL. Their defense isn't suddenly good because FItz threw up some lobs. Their run game isn't suddenly the 2008 Panthers because they ran against dime coverage. That all said, at this stage, they are better than teh Broncos enough to beat them at home. My key for Denver is 3-3 at the bye, and winning next week's game is more important.
Broncos 23 Patriots 31 (NE -7)
San Diego Chargers (3-1) @ New Orleans Saints (0-4) (NO -3.5)
Has there ever been a line like this, where an team with three fewer losses is favored? It is even worse when it comes in Week 4, so a winless team is a favorite agaisnt a 3-1 team? This is just a stunning line. Yes, the Chargers were awful in their one loss, but the Saints HAVEN'T WON A GAME. They are 0-2 at home losing to two teams worse than the Chargers. If this line was normal (like a pick, or Chargers by 1 or 2), I would think about the Saints, but this is ludicrous. It is an affront. The Saints could very well win, but what is this line about? Anyway, going to the game, the Chargers offense should have an easy time against the Saints flaccid D. On the other side, I don't think the Saints offense is back to normal because of that game. Brees still threw too many incompletions, and they still didn't cross 30 points (which they did once, with a garbage-time TD). I'm taking the Chargers, and if they do win, that Broncos @ Chargers MNF game next week becomes all that much more important.
Chargers 31 Saints 27 (SD +3.5)
Houston Texans (4-0) @ New York Jets (2-2) (HOU -8)
I'm taking way too many high favorites to cover. 7 teams are favored by at least 6, and I've taken them all to cover. Hopefully, that goes at least 4-2. By the way, it is obvious, now, who I am picking in this game. The Jets are worse than the team that just played the 49ers in now that Santonio is gone. They won't be able to move the ball any easier against the NFL's best pass defense (and a Top-5 run defense). The Texans offense can run the ball well, and should against a suddenly porous Jets defense. 5-0 will be upon us, and two major tests are coming up (Packers & Ravens, both in Houston).
Texans 30 Jets 13 (HOU -8)
Enjoy the Games!!!
I've picked one TNF game correctly so far and that was the only one that has really followed the formula of TNF's games past, where the home team dominates a sloppy game. I have no feel for this game. I think the Cardinals are good, but the Rams are quite good in that building. Jeff Fisher's defense could harass Kolb the way Wake and the Dolphins did. I'm almost chalking this down as a loss already for me. I'll go with the Rams to win a tight game, partly because I think they'll win in their first home prime-time game since Bush was president (that is NOT a lie), and also because I can't imagine the Cardinals actually being 5-0.
Cardinals 17 Rams 20 (STL +1.5)
Atlanta Falcons (4-0) @ Washington Redskins (2-2) (ATL -3)
This should be a fun game, and another good test for the Falcons. So far, a group that has not been too much of a sure thing on the road (the Smith/Ryan Falcons) have been dominant on the road. Here, they get another shot against Griffin, who's still looking for his first home win. I can really see this game going either way. That said, the Falcons giving just three seems like a good value. They're better than the Redskins, and should score a lot against that porous Redskins defense. I'm going with Atlanta to win, and because of that low line, cover.
Falcons 35 Redskins 27 (ATL -3)
Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) (PIT -3.5)
Interesting game. The Eagles are the worst 3-1 team in the NFL statistically (empirically, it is probably Minnesota), while Pittsburgh should finally get Polamalu and Harrison back. The last time these two teams met, the Eagles sacked Roethlisberger 8 times. I doubt they get him down that many times, but they still stop suprress what has quietly been quite a good offense in Pittsburgh. The other side is the more interesting one. The Steelers defense has been bad save for one game against a Jets offense. They get their guys back, and they'll need him. In the end, I don't think the Eagles are that much better than a finally healthy Pittsburgh team to give that many points in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are great at home, and I think we see that here.
Eagles 20 Steelers 23 (PHI +3.5)
Green Bay Packers (2-2) @ Indianapolis Colts (1-2) (GB -7)
Nice easy game for the Packers here. If they don't get 30 points here, then we have serious problems going forward with the Packers offense. The Colts are not that good anyway, but now will be in their first game without their coach (Thoughts & Prayers with you Coach Pagano). Some would think that this personal issue would inspire a team, but seeing from the Colts and Packers after their coach's had tragedies, or the Saints this year, that doesn't really happen. If Luck gets any time at all, he should be able to find holes in that secondary, but I doubt he gets too much time.
Packers 34 Colts 17 (GB -7)
Cleveland Browns (0-4) @ New York Giants (2-2) (NYG -9)
The Giants will either do one of two things: 1 - play a lazy game where they win with a late field goal, or 2 - blow the doors off the Browns. People like to point out the Giants playing lazy, slow games at home, but that isn't always true. In 2008-2010, they were notorious for smashing bad teams early in seasons. I can see that happening here. The case for the Browns is that they've been competitive, and have 10 days of rest against a team that played a SNF game, but I don't always buy that, especially if the team off the shorter rest is the better team playing at home.
Browns 13 Giants 27 (NYG -9)
Tennessee Titans (1-3) @ Minnesota Vikings (3-1) (MIN -5.5)
I like this spot for Tennessee. The Vikings are 3-1, but really have played just one good game. They needed two return TDs to beat Detroit, and OT to beat a bad Jags team. On the other side, Tennessee is probably better than they've shown. They've been blown out badly by three of the best teams in the NFL (Patriots, Chargers, Texans) and played the Lions about as well as Minnesota did. I think this line is too high, and I can see Chris Johnson having another big game. I think the Vikings win the game, but the Titans keep it rather close. That line is just too high for me to feel comfortable picking the Vikings.
Titans 20 Vikings 24 (TEN +5.5)
Miami Dolphins (1-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (3-1) (CIN -3.5)
On the other hand, this seems like too much respect for Miami after losing two games in OT. Yeah, they could easily be 3-1, but they are not. They just lost an emotional OT game and have to play another road game against the league's best hidden team. The Bengals are doing exactly what they did a year ago, winning all the games they should win. It might have helped them in a weird way to get blasted in Baltimore in Week 1. No one is really concentrating that they've won three games, two of which on the road. This seems like a clear undervaluation of a good team. The Bengals line should hold down the Dolphins pass rush, while the Bengals defense gets another chance to improve after a rough start.
Dolphins 17 Bengals 27 (CIN -3.5)
Baltimore Ravens (3-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-3) (BAL -6)
The last time these two teams squared off was the 2010 Wild Card Game, where teh Ravens drummed the Chiefs 30-7. Nothing much has really changed since then. The Chiefs are worse, as Matt Cassel is regressing to what he really is (a pick-prone QB that lacks pocket-presence). The Ravens defense is worse, but their offense is better. The Chiefs still haven't really stopped anyone, and I can't see them beating Baltimore. I also think this line is low. The Chiefs are not a good team. They had a close, lucky win against an 0-4 team, and outside of that they've lost by 16, 18 and 17. That's what I see from them here as well.
Ravens 31 Chiefs 13 (BAL -6)
Seattle Seahawks (2-2) @ Carolina Panthers (1-3) (CAR -3)
I wish the Seahawks were favorites by 3. I would have felt a lot more confident. I think Vegas, and the public in general, has kind of caught on that the Seahawks offense, at Russel Wilson, just isn't that good. The Panthers defense isn't either, but they should be able to hold down the Seahawks enough. The other side of teh ball pits a good defense against a volatile but good offense. It is really hard to make a good pick of how that matchup plays out. I'm leaning towards the Panthers, so I'll take them to win and cover (I would buy the half-point had I been actually betting here).
Seahawks 17 Panthers 23 (CAR -3)
Chicago Bears (3-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) (CHI -6)
Oh, mercy. Blaine Gabbert and the Jags offense was awful against the Bengals at home. What exactly will they do against the NFL's most active defense through four weeks. They might get some run-game going (at least more so than last week), but sooner or later, the Bears will take that away. On the other side, if Forte plays, that Chicago offense is easily good enough to score 20+. This spread is low, for some reason. I have a feeling one or two of my clear blowout picks (this, Ravens over Chiefs, Giants over Browns, the one coming up) falters, but that is okay if the others work out like I think they will.
Bears 27 Jaguars 10 (CHI -6)
Buffalo Bills (2-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (3-1) (SF -9.5)
This line seems high, but I can't relly make any sort of case for the Bills here. Their run game will probably have another innefective week. The 49ers run game is about as good as New England's (that's right, New England, despite what you have heard, did not invent running the football), and about as diverse. Their defense is much better. In the Bills losses, they've given up 100 points and turned the ball over 10 times. If their turnover number comes close to 5, then no way do they stay even close. The 49ers are too good to play a complacent game at home (especially after a complacent game two weeks ago). They get the win, and the cover, but I don't think the Bills embarrass themselves this time.
Bills 17 49ers 30 (SF -9.5)
Denver Broncos (2-2) @ New England Patriots (2-2) (NE -7)
It is easy to overreact to what just happened. The Patriots just scored 45 second half points. They just ran for 200 yards and gained 500 yards. They just had their QB throw for 300+ yards and 3 TDs. Apparently, they've reinvented the way offense is played, and what transpired in Weeks 2 and 3 are irrelevant. Of course, the Broncos just had a game where they scored 31 second half points (in fewer possessions), gained over 500 yards and had their QB throw for 300+ yards and 3 TDs. Yet, what is people's reaction about that game: It was the Raiders. Well... It Was the Bills. Anyway, getting to this game. The Patriots aren't suddenly the best team in the NFL. Their defense isn't suddenly good because FItz threw up some lobs. Their run game isn't suddenly the 2008 Panthers because they ran against dime coverage. That all said, at this stage, they are better than teh Broncos enough to beat them at home. My key for Denver is 3-3 at the bye, and winning next week's game is more important.
Broncos 23 Patriots 31 (NE -7)
San Diego Chargers (3-1) @ New Orleans Saints (0-4) (NO -3.5)
Has there ever been a line like this, where an team with three fewer losses is favored? It is even worse when it comes in Week 4, so a winless team is a favorite agaisnt a 3-1 team? This is just a stunning line. Yes, the Chargers were awful in their one loss, but the Saints HAVEN'T WON A GAME. They are 0-2 at home losing to two teams worse than the Chargers. If this line was normal (like a pick, or Chargers by 1 or 2), I would think about the Saints, but this is ludicrous. It is an affront. The Saints could very well win, but what is this line about? Anyway, going to the game, the Chargers offense should have an easy time against the Saints flaccid D. On the other side, I don't think the Saints offense is back to normal because of that game. Brees still threw too many incompletions, and they still didn't cross 30 points (which they did once, with a garbage-time TD). I'm taking the Chargers, and if they do win, that Broncos @ Chargers MNF game next week becomes all that much more important.
Chargers 31 Saints 27 (SD +3.5)
Houston Texans (4-0) @ New York Jets (2-2) (HOU -8)
I'm taking way too many high favorites to cover. 7 teams are favored by at least 6, and I've taken them all to cover. Hopefully, that goes at least 4-2. By the way, it is obvious, now, who I am picking in this game. The Jets are worse than the team that just played the 49ers in now that Santonio is gone. They won't be able to move the ball any easier against the NFL's best pass defense (and a Top-5 run defense). The Texans offense can run the ball well, and should against a suddenly porous Jets defense. 5-0 will be upon us, and two major tests are coming up (Packers & Ravens, both in Houston).
Texans 30 Jets 13 (HOU -8)
Enjoy the Games!!!
