I'm sure this happens every year, but we get a nice weekend with a ton of important division games (SEA @ SF, WAS @ NYG, NYJ @ NE, PIT @ CIN, DET @ CHI) and no AFC vs. NFC matchups at all. Also, because of the baseball playoffs, only two late afternoon games. Strange, but still interesting, much like every weekend.
Seattle Seahawks (4-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (4-2) (SF -7)
I really like the NFC West. I was a little disappointed by the Cardinals @ Rams TNF game two weeks ago, but that was more about the inability of the Cards to block. This game should be fun for someone who likes defense, who likes seeing QBs not easily throw for 300 yards. The 49ers will not let the Seahawks go deep on them like the Patriots did. The Seahawks are 3-0 at home, but 0-2 on the road, both at their more inferior division rivals. The 49ers have got to play with incredible passion after they were stripped of their manhood last weekend. I think the Seahawks won't give up too many points, but the 49ers are still better, at home on Thursday, and looking for blood.
Seahawks 10 49ers 20 (SF -7)
Tennessee Titans (2-4) @ Buffalo Bills (3-3) (BUF -3)
I was very wrong about both teams last week as they both won games I expected them to lose. The Bills are back in this. They were embarrassed two weeks in a row, but playing a bad offense ails bad defenses. It will be interesting to see if CJ1K can run against a porous rush defense. The Bills offense should have success against the Titans, as most offenses do against them. I just think the Bills are better and at home, and other than the run game, which is extremely volatile for Tennessee anyway, have no discernable disadvantage against the Titans.
Titans 17 Bills 27 (BUF -3)
Arizona Cardinals (4-2) @ Minnesota Vikings (4-2) (MIN -6)
Can you say overreaction? The Vikings are not that much better than the Cardinals. The Cardinals blocked better, and have clutch QB extraordinaire John Skelton back in the fold. The Vikings probably won't get much going offensively against a Cardinals team that still played great defense through their two losses. The Cardinals should be able to rush Ponder in a way that the Redskins couldn't, and the Vikings don't have anyone to take out Fitzgerald. I think the Vikings win, as they are at home and playing the backup (and make no mistake, Kolb is better).
Cardinals 13 Vikings 20 (MIN -6)
Cleveland Browns (1-5) @ Indianapolis Colts (2-3) (IND -2.5)
I was right thinking the Browns could get their first win last week against the Bengals, but I don't think they get a second win here. The Colts have been better at home so far this season (not a huge statement to make given their two road games were 41-21 and 35-9 losses), as Luck gets better protection at home. Their defense is much better against the pass which works well against the Browns who despite drafting Richardson still have a middling run game. I think the Browns are better than their record, and keep it close, but getting a line under a field goal is great value.
Browns 24 Colts 27 (IND -2.5)
Baltimore Ravens (5-1) @ Houston Texans (5-1) (HOU -6.5)
I guess I'm not surprised that a game between two 5-1 teams is not getting much publicity, despite them not only being the top two teams by record in the AFC as well as both two games clear of the rest of the AFC (still a ridiculous stat just six weeks in). A lot of it has to do with the waxing the Texans took on SNF and the fact that Ray Lewis and Webb are gone. Anyway, back to this game, the Texans are a better team right now with the Ravens hurt. Their run game should do well against what has been a bad run defense recently. Without Webb, the Ravens lost their best option to pit against Andre. Their pass rush is still not there without Suggs (even if he does play, it will undoubtedly be limited). Right now, this points to Houston.
Ravens 20 Texans 27 (HOU -6.5)
Green Bay Packers (3-3) @ St. Louis Rams (3-3) (GB -5.5)
Let's get this out of way: I'm picking the Rams to cover. OK, now that you are done laughing at me, I'll explain why. There is really just one reason - the Rams are a very good pass defense that matches up well against the Packers, with press corners in Finnegan and a game Janoris Jenkins, as well as an at-times dominant pass rush with Chris Long and Robert Quinn leading the way. On the other side, the Rams offense plays quite a bit better at home, and the Rams also have a huge special teams edge. I'm not insane enough to pick the Rams to win, but to cover, I'll go for it.
Packers 27 Rams 24 (STL +5.5)
Dallas Cowboys (2-3) @ Carolina Panthers (1-4) (DAL -2)
This is a strange line at first, but considering the Cowboys are a strong public team, and really put up the numberzz last week, I can see many overrating them after their near loss. That said, with Morris Claiborne out, I can see the Panthers offense finally breaking out. The Panthers had two weeks to prepare for this game, and really need a win. They are the more desperate team, and with the Cowboys pass rush a little muted so far, a bad matchup for the Cowboys. The line just makes it easier. The Panthers get their second win.
Cowboys 23 Panthers 31 (CAR +2)
Washington Redskins (3-3) @ New York Giants (4-2) (NYG -5.5)
What an interesting game. First, we have the idea that the Giants won't get up for the Redskins at home because they never get up for the Redskins at home (see their losses to the Redskins at home in 2007 and 2011). That said, it is different this time. The Redskins are getting a lot of buzz after their dramatic, insane win over the Vikings. RGIII is playing great. That said, you know who is playing better: Eli Manning. Eli Manning also gets to go against a flaccid pass rush and an overall awful defense in Washington. They'll get up for a divisional game against a team that swept them last year. The Redskins are good enough to require the Giants full effort.
Redskins 20 Giants 30 (NYG -5.5)
New Orleans Saints (1-4) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3) (NO -3)
I see a lot of people picking the underdog home Bucs to cover or even win. I guess a lot of people like the Buccaneers a lot more than I do, and I guess that is fair. My distaste for the Bucs is more about what they will become. Anyway, back to this game, the Saints have had tough losses in Tampa before, including a stunning 28-20 loss last year which was the game where Sean Payton tore his ACL. The Saints had a week to prepare for this and should come out better, and I don't think the Buccaneers defense can really stop Drew Brees and that offense unless Brees makes a lot of mistakes. I guess that is possible, but if the Saints want to even dream of wild card, they can't drop this with the Broncos, 49ers, Giants still on the schedule, plus the Falcons twice.
Saints 28 Buccaneers 24 (NO -3)
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4) @ Oakland Raiders (1-4) (OAK -4)
Only two late afternoon games this weekend due to NLCS Game 6 if it actually happens.
*Quick Sidebar*
This is a slap in the face to the NL. Last year, when FOX had the AL, they put this game at 8:00 at promoted a sports triple-header. The Giants and Cardinals, the two defending champs, should get that billing, plus FOX lost the opportunity to air a football game at 4:05.
*End Sidebar*
I'll go through this one quickly. The Raiders are better than Jacksonville. Their biggest weakness is the secondary, but Blaine Gabbert and the Jaguars pass offense is awful. The Jags weakness on defense is mostly everything, which should not work too well against a good Raiders offense. Because of how pitiful much of the AFC is, if they win, they really are back in the race. They will win, and cover what seems to be a slightly low line.
Jaguars 16 Raiders 27 (OAK -4)
New York Jets (3-3) @ New England Patriots (3-3) (NE -10.5)
I have two thoughts about this game. First is that when the Patriots are on, they have looked great, trouncing the Titans and Bills and beating a good Broncos team. When they've looked bad they looked OK, but unable to put teams away. What has stunned me was the Patriots rolling out this ultra-fast no-huddle has almost perfectly coincided with the defense returning to absolute garbage. The Patriots have many advantages here and will almost assuredly win, but are they really that much better? I say no, at least for this game. The Jets are nowhere near as their worst performance (loss to San Fran), and their passing game has been better against much better pass defenses the last two weeks. They'll keep it relatively close and that is enough to cover a high, high line.
Jets 20 Patriots 28 (NYJ +10.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (3-3) (PIT -1.5)
Despite both teams being disappointing (the Bengals especially, dropping consecutive games to Miami and Cleveland when they could've been 5-1) this is a fun game. They are similar teams now, with explosive but inconsistent offenses and average defenses. Over the years, they have played quite a few primetime games, and while the Steelers have won most they've usually been considerably better. I don't think they are this time. This is a good chance for Cincinnati to really show America that they are for real, that they can make it back to the playoffs, for Andy Dalton to show that he can step up. I just don't see it. I can't see the Steelers at 2-4. I said the same thing last week with the Packers, but picked the Texans anyway. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.
Steelers 23 Bengals 20 (PIT -1.5)
Detroit Lions (2-3) @ Chicago Bears (4-1) (CHI -6)
Another division game to round ourselves off. Last year's meeting in Chicago was a huge 37-13 win for the Bears where they picked off Stafford three times. The Bears defense is even more pick-happy this year, playing at a level that I really haven't seen since the 2002 Bucs (of course, it has only been five games, let's see them do it for 11 more). The Lions are not the team to beat them, as they won't be able to get deep on the Bears Cover-2, and can't really attack the Bears relative weakness in their run defense. The Bears should have success moving the ball, and unless Cutler has a turnover-filled day they should win.
Lions 17 Bears 31 (CHI -6)
Enjoy the Games!!
Seattle Seahawks (4-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (4-2) (SF -7)
I really like the NFC West. I was a little disappointed by the Cardinals @ Rams TNF game two weeks ago, but that was more about the inability of the Cards to block. This game should be fun for someone who likes defense, who likes seeing QBs not easily throw for 300 yards. The 49ers will not let the Seahawks go deep on them like the Patriots did. The Seahawks are 3-0 at home, but 0-2 on the road, both at their more inferior division rivals. The 49ers have got to play with incredible passion after they were stripped of their manhood last weekend. I think the Seahawks won't give up too many points, but the 49ers are still better, at home on Thursday, and looking for blood.
Seahawks 10 49ers 20 (SF -7)
Tennessee Titans (2-4) @ Buffalo Bills (3-3) (BUF -3)
I was very wrong about both teams last week as they both won games I expected them to lose. The Bills are back in this. They were embarrassed two weeks in a row, but playing a bad offense ails bad defenses. It will be interesting to see if CJ1K can run against a porous rush defense. The Bills offense should have success against the Titans, as most offenses do against them. I just think the Bills are better and at home, and other than the run game, which is extremely volatile for Tennessee anyway, have no discernable disadvantage against the Titans.
Titans 17 Bills 27 (BUF -3)
Arizona Cardinals (4-2) @ Minnesota Vikings (4-2) (MIN -6)
Can you say overreaction? The Vikings are not that much better than the Cardinals. The Cardinals blocked better, and have clutch QB extraordinaire John Skelton back in the fold. The Vikings probably won't get much going offensively against a Cardinals team that still played great defense through their two losses. The Cardinals should be able to rush Ponder in a way that the Redskins couldn't, and the Vikings don't have anyone to take out Fitzgerald. I think the Vikings win, as they are at home and playing the backup (and make no mistake, Kolb is better).
Cardinals 13 Vikings 20 (MIN -6)
Cleveland Browns (1-5) @ Indianapolis Colts (2-3) (IND -2.5)
I was right thinking the Browns could get their first win last week against the Bengals, but I don't think they get a second win here. The Colts have been better at home so far this season (not a huge statement to make given their two road games were 41-21 and 35-9 losses), as Luck gets better protection at home. Their defense is much better against the pass which works well against the Browns who despite drafting Richardson still have a middling run game. I think the Browns are better than their record, and keep it close, but getting a line under a field goal is great value.
Browns 24 Colts 27 (IND -2.5)
Baltimore Ravens (5-1) @ Houston Texans (5-1) (HOU -6.5)
I guess I'm not surprised that a game between two 5-1 teams is not getting much publicity, despite them not only being the top two teams by record in the AFC as well as both two games clear of the rest of the AFC (still a ridiculous stat just six weeks in). A lot of it has to do with the waxing the Texans took on SNF and the fact that Ray Lewis and Webb are gone. Anyway, back to this game, the Texans are a better team right now with the Ravens hurt. Their run game should do well against what has been a bad run defense recently. Without Webb, the Ravens lost their best option to pit against Andre. Their pass rush is still not there without Suggs (even if he does play, it will undoubtedly be limited). Right now, this points to Houston.
Ravens 20 Texans 27 (HOU -6.5)
Green Bay Packers (3-3) @ St. Louis Rams (3-3) (GB -5.5)
Let's get this out of way: I'm picking the Rams to cover. OK, now that you are done laughing at me, I'll explain why. There is really just one reason - the Rams are a very good pass defense that matches up well against the Packers, with press corners in Finnegan and a game Janoris Jenkins, as well as an at-times dominant pass rush with Chris Long and Robert Quinn leading the way. On the other side, the Rams offense plays quite a bit better at home, and the Rams also have a huge special teams edge. I'm not insane enough to pick the Rams to win, but to cover, I'll go for it.
Packers 27 Rams 24 (STL +5.5)
Dallas Cowboys (2-3) @ Carolina Panthers (1-4) (DAL -2)
This is a strange line at first, but considering the Cowboys are a strong public team, and really put up the numberzz last week, I can see many overrating them after their near loss. That said, with Morris Claiborne out, I can see the Panthers offense finally breaking out. The Panthers had two weeks to prepare for this game, and really need a win. They are the more desperate team, and with the Cowboys pass rush a little muted so far, a bad matchup for the Cowboys. The line just makes it easier. The Panthers get their second win.
Cowboys 23 Panthers 31 (CAR +2)
Washington Redskins (3-3) @ New York Giants (4-2) (NYG -5.5)
What an interesting game. First, we have the idea that the Giants won't get up for the Redskins at home because they never get up for the Redskins at home (see their losses to the Redskins at home in 2007 and 2011). That said, it is different this time. The Redskins are getting a lot of buzz after their dramatic, insane win over the Vikings. RGIII is playing great. That said, you know who is playing better: Eli Manning. Eli Manning also gets to go against a flaccid pass rush and an overall awful defense in Washington. They'll get up for a divisional game against a team that swept them last year. The Redskins are good enough to require the Giants full effort.
Redskins 20 Giants 30 (NYG -5.5)
New Orleans Saints (1-4) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3) (NO -3)
I see a lot of people picking the underdog home Bucs to cover or even win. I guess a lot of people like the Buccaneers a lot more than I do, and I guess that is fair. My distaste for the Bucs is more about what they will become. Anyway, back to this game, the Saints have had tough losses in Tampa before, including a stunning 28-20 loss last year which was the game where Sean Payton tore his ACL. The Saints had a week to prepare for this and should come out better, and I don't think the Buccaneers defense can really stop Drew Brees and that offense unless Brees makes a lot of mistakes. I guess that is possible, but if the Saints want to even dream of wild card, they can't drop this with the Broncos, 49ers, Giants still on the schedule, plus the Falcons twice.
Saints 28 Buccaneers 24 (NO -3)
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4) @ Oakland Raiders (1-4) (OAK -4)
Only two late afternoon games this weekend due to NLCS Game 6 if it actually happens.
*Quick Sidebar*
This is a slap in the face to the NL. Last year, when FOX had the AL, they put this game at 8:00 at promoted a sports triple-header. The Giants and Cardinals, the two defending champs, should get that billing, plus FOX lost the opportunity to air a football game at 4:05.
*End Sidebar*
I'll go through this one quickly. The Raiders are better than Jacksonville. Their biggest weakness is the secondary, but Blaine Gabbert and the Jaguars pass offense is awful. The Jags weakness on defense is mostly everything, which should not work too well against a good Raiders offense. Because of how pitiful much of the AFC is, if they win, they really are back in the race. They will win, and cover what seems to be a slightly low line.
Jaguars 16 Raiders 27 (OAK -4)
New York Jets (3-3) @ New England Patriots (3-3) (NE -10.5)
I have two thoughts about this game. First is that when the Patriots are on, they have looked great, trouncing the Titans and Bills and beating a good Broncos team. When they've looked bad they looked OK, but unable to put teams away. What has stunned me was the Patriots rolling out this ultra-fast no-huddle has almost perfectly coincided with the defense returning to absolute garbage. The Patriots have many advantages here and will almost assuredly win, but are they really that much better? I say no, at least for this game. The Jets are nowhere near as their worst performance (loss to San Fran), and their passing game has been better against much better pass defenses the last two weeks. They'll keep it relatively close and that is enough to cover a high, high line.
Jets 20 Patriots 28 (NYJ +10.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (3-3) (PIT -1.5)
Despite both teams being disappointing (the Bengals especially, dropping consecutive games to Miami and Cleveland when they could've been 5-1) this is a fun game. They are similar teams now, with explosive but inconsistent offenses and average defenses. Over the years, they have played quite a few primetime games, and while the Steelers have won most they've usually been considerably better. I don't think they are this time. This is a good chance for Cincinnati to really show America that they are for real, that they can make it back to the playoffs, for Andy Dalton to show that he can step up. I just don't see it. I can't see the Steelers at 2-4. I said the same thing last week with the Packers, but picked the Texans anyway. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.
Steelers 23 Bengals 20 (PIT -1.5)
Detroit Lions (2-3) @ Chicago Bears (4-1) (CHI -6)
Another division game to round ourselves off. Last year's meeting in Chicago was a huge 37-13 win for the Bears where they picked off Stafford three times. The Bears defense is even more pick-happy this year, playing at a level that I really haven't seen since the 2002 Bucs (of course, it has only been five games, let's see them do it for 11 more). The Lions are not the team to beat them, as they won't be able to get deep on the Bears Cover-2, and can't really attack the Bears relative weakness in their run defense. The Bears should have success moving the ball, and unless Cutler has a turnover-filled day they should win.
Lions 17 Bears 31 (CHI -6)
Enjoy the Games!!
