Not a great week, but not a bad one either.
Looking Back at Last Week's Picks
Rams (+1.5) over Cardinals (CORRECT = 1-0) (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Falcons (-3) over Redskins (CORRECT = 2-0)
Eagles (+3.5) over Steelers (CORRECT = 3-0)
Packers (-7) over Colts (WRONG = 3-1)
Giants (-9) over Browns (CORRECT = 4-1)
Titans (+5.5) over Vikings (WRONG = 4-2)
Bengals (-3.5) over Dolphins (WRONG = 4-3)
Ravens (-6) over Chiefs (WRONG = 4-4)
Panthers (-3) over Seahawks (WRONG = 4-5)
Bears (-6) over Jaguars (CORRECT = 5-5) (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
49ers (-9.5) over Bills (CORRECT = 6-5)
Patriots (-7) over Broncos (CORRECT = 7-5)
Chargers (+3.5) over Saints (WRONG = 7-6)
Texans (-9) over Jets (WRONG = 7-7)
Week 5: 7-7 (Lock: 1-0; Upset: 1-0)
Year-to-Date: 44-32-1 (4-1; 4-0)
Best Picks: Nothing perfect this week. Closest was my pick of Patriots beating the Broncos 31-21, while they won 31-23. Nothing else was in the realm of close. Oh, and by the way, I once again missed the prime-time games, and am now 1-8 in the last three weeks, and 5-11 overall.
Power Rankings
32.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4 = 65-138)
Tennessee might be a worse team, and we'll get a good look when they meet later this season, but when you lose at home by 38, you deserve this spot. I realize the Bears are good, and so far three of the Jaguars losses are to teams a combined 13-2, but they've been utterly uncompetitive in their last three losses, and have a fluke 80-yard TD to thank for in their win. The defense is regressing. The offense still can't get anything going. Mike Mularkey 2.0 is going worse than 1.0.
31.) Tennessee Titans (1-4 = 88-181)
I can't believe I'm not ranking a team with one fluke win (three return TDs) and four losses by 20+, but this is really picking one turd over a true whopper. The Titans have the league's most schizophrenic running back. Their defense cannot rush the passer or cover receivers. Matt Hasselbeck look's old out there. Mike Munchak someone got this team to 9-7 last year, but that was as much of a mirage as it seemed at the time.
30.) Kansas City Chiefs (1-4 = 94-145)
Credit them for having a plan (run all the damn time) and sticking to it, and for playing very good defense. They still play hard for Romeo Crennel. But it is just hard to win a lot of games in the NFL with Matt Cassel, or now Brady Quinn, at quarterback. Also, screw the Chiefs fans for cheering when Cassel got hurt. That's an awful move from what is trumpeted up as a classy, dedicated fan base.
29.) Cleveland Browns (0-5 = 100-139)
In each of the past two years, the league's last winless team wasn't all that bad, and ended with .500+ second halfs (2010 Bills, 2011 Dolphins). I think it is the same this year, but the Browns don't have that easy schedule those two had. They have two winnable games up next (vs CIN, @ IND) then a three game stretch late with (@ OAK, vs KC, vs WAS). Target those games for their wins.
28.) Buffalo Bills (2-3 = 118-176)
Losing 52-28 after leading 21-7 to New England? Bad. Losing 45-3 and giving up 300 yards passing as well as 300 yards rushing? Historically bad. The Bills actually played substantially worse this week than they did against the Pats. Since that 21-7 lead, they've been outscored 90-10. The 49ers made them look completely amateurish. Best part is, because of the soft middle of teh AFC, they still have a shot at a Wild Card.
26.) Carolina Panthers (1-4 = 92-125)
Year 2 of Cam is going a lot worse than Year 1. Of course, his Year 1 stats were inflated from the juiced Week 1-6 era of 2011, but one would've thought he would have improved from last year to this. I still like Cam long term, but he's got to play better at home. I realize Carolina isn't a great field to play in, but they have been so much better in their road games so far this season.
25.) Oakland Raiders (1-3 = 67-125)
Hopefully they can use their week off to prepare for what could be another road blowout this week in Atlanta. That are work on making the Zone-Blocking Scheme and Darren McFadden gel. Or maybe sign corners that can actually play the position. The Raiders offense is still decent, but that defense is just atrocious. Reggie McKenzie better have a plan, because he gutted an average team.
24.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3 = 82-91)
It's nice that they have a -9 point differential. It is true they have been in every game, that they have played hard - however, they were incredibly outplayed against teh Giants and Cowboys, regardless of the final score. That all works early, but if they can't put together more wins, those close losses will explode into bigger losses. The 2011 Buccaneers lost some close games early as well.
27.) New York Jets (2-3 = 98-132)
That was a good performance, but that really belies the problem with the Jets. They played well. They played aggresive, going with a fake punt on their side of the field. They got a special teams TD, and their defense held up in the red zone. Yet, they still lost by 6. Either the Jets turn this into a moral victory and run through an easier schedule, or this was the last stand of the Alamo.
23.) Detroit Lions (1-3 = 92-125)
It says something about how weak the bad teams are that the Lions are only my 10th worse team. That said, some of that has to do with them allowing 4 Special Teams TDs the last two weeks, which swung two wins into losses. They've been better than that 1-3 record, but you look at the struggles of Matthew Stafford, the running game and the secondary (which hasn't been improved at all in the Mayhew/Schwartz era) and you think that maybe they aren't.
22.) Washington Redskins (2-3 = 140-147)
I hope RGIII isn't out long-term. Partly because he's fun to watch play, but mostly because it will just continue to propigate this bias against QBs who can run. RGIII isn't Vick as much as he is like Cam. That said, there is a risk and it has presented itself. I guess this is why Shanahan drafted another QB in a middle round in the draft. Lost in all of that was a better performance by the Redskins defense, who are slowly adjusting to the loss of Orakpo and Carriker.
21.) Miami Dolphins (2-3 = 103-103)
The Dolphins had a really nice win on Sunday, beating a good team on the road. Coupled with their two OT losses, they could be 4-1, or at least 3-2. That said, what we saw in Week 1, when they were thoroughly outclassed by the Texans, wasn't a mistake. I like this team, and they are another team unlikely in play for a Wild Card, but I think some will overrate their recent performance a little too much.
20.) New Orleans Saints (1-4 = 141-154)
Congrats on getting off the schneid. Now, at least admit you were fortunate with a really questionable pass interference call late in the game. I actually came away from that game more impressed with the Chargers, but that was a good comeback by the Saints. Because the NFC is more top-heavy than expected, the Saints will have a tough time getting back into the mix. That loss to the Packers will loom larger each week.
19.) Indianapolis Colts (2-2 = 91-110)
I hope Pagano's first treatment went as well as the Colts in the 2nd half. What a performance. Reggie Wayne isn't a HOF player, but that was a HOF performance. Andrew Luck had his first great comeback, and it was similar to Manning's best, coming back from 21-3 down late in the 2nd half. The real development, however, was the Colts finally showed some life with their new 3-4.
18.) Dallas Cowboys (2-2 = 65-88)
Honestly, after their dreadful performance on MNF, that was a good time to have a bye. The Cowboys hopefully used it to make sure Romo doesn't throw 5 (or really 4) picks against the Ravens, and hopefully they used it to figure out how to turn their high yardage numbers into more points. Scoring 260 points (what the Cowboys are on pace for) is not exactly going to cut it in a high-scoring division.
17.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-2 = 80-99)
That was an OK performance, but man, can Mike Vick hold onto the ball. That first fumble at the Steelers 2 was awful. They could have still won, but their defense was gashed late. No OPI this time around for the Eagles. They've played 4 close games and gone 3-1. If that stays, they still have a shot, but if that equalizes to about .500, that is where the Eagles will, deservedly, be.
16.) Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2 = 93-89)
Good win for a team that sorely needed it. If they lost to Philly at home to drop to 1-3 then they would really be in a tough spot. Losing Polamalu again hurts as their defense finally did look like a defense that resembled the Steelers from 2008-2011. Harrison looks a little slow, but that could improve. Mike Wallace is really struggling early. I didn't watch much of the game, so it could be that Nnamdi was covering him most of the day.
15.) Seattle Seahawks (3-2 = 86-70)
This is a 'show-me' game for the Seahawks. They get the NFL's second hottest rushing attack (lest anyone forget, the 49ers have put up better rush numbers the last two weeks than New England), but get them in that bandbox in Seattle. They've made every opposing offense look flaccid, and need to do that to the Patriots. On the other side, it was good to see Wilson getting easier throws to make. He's not very good, but what he did against Carolina would be passable most weeks.
14.) St. Louis Rams (3-2 = 96-94)
Through 5 weeks, all four NFC West teams are in my Top-15. Let that sink in. The Rams pass rush was incredible against Arizona. Now, that was against Arizona, but if they can do that more or less in most of their games, they are a definite Wild-Card competitors. Sam Bradford still has no weapons, but at some point, boy's gotta get more accurate. They are really tough to beat in that dome, but I want to see them show up outside. Last time they left, they were neutered 23-6 by the Bears.
13.) Cincinnati Bengals (3-2 = 125-129)
What a missed opportunity. They can't drop games to teams like the Dolphins if they want to win a Wild Card again. The 2011 Bengals didn't do it, the 2012 version can't either. I still like this team, and their defense has really stepped up the past two weeks, but with that loss, they've just let a ton of teams get near them in the standings.
12.) San Diego Chargers (3-2 = 124-102)
That was a tough loss. They just fell apart after that roughing the passer call negated the pick-6. They played well, but losing to the Saints in New Orleans isn't as forgiveable as it was a year ago. Philip Rivers put up nice stats, but he just doesn't look right. That was an awful pick he threw. The Chargers need to show up for this game on Monday. They've been able to beat Manning by doing two teams: pressuring him up the middle, throttling the run game. Both will be hard to do against Denver, at least harder than it was against Indianapolis.
11.) Green Bay Packers (2-3 = 112-111)
Losing to the 49ers: OK, the 49ers are a great team. Losing to the Seahawks: OK, they are tough to beat at home and have a great defense, and the Packers should have won. Losing to the Colts: Not OK. They were up 21-3. What happened to that O-Line in the 2nd Half. The Packers offense seems to go into huge stretches where they get nothing. Greg Jennings being 100% seems to mean a lot more to that offense than people think.
10.) Minnesota Vikings (4-1 = 120-79)
They just dominated a team in a trap game. Good teams dominate bad teams. They just did that to the Titans. That was a bigger statement to me than any of their previous games (especially that fluke win in Detroit). The Vikings have found a way to make a supposed shortcoming (lack of weapons) be erased by great play-calling and utilizing Percy Harvin the way he should be. That defense is so improved from last year. They don't need Jared Allen to be superman to hold a team down anymore. I always thought Leslie Frazier would be a good coach. I had no idea.
9.) Denver Broncos (2-3 = 135-114)
Again, part of this is pure homerism, but the three Denver losses were by 6, 6 and 10 to three teams in my Top-6, two being on the road. They've had an extremely tough schedule, and getting a road MNF game against doesn't help, but look at their schedule after the bye. Look at the way Manning has been playing. Look at that defense against bad to above average rush offenses (they've been shredded by two of the better ones in Houston and New England). They're going on a run soon, the only question is will that start this weekend or not.
8.) Arizona Cardinals (4-1 = 94-78)
I'm not dropping them too far by looking bad on the road on TNF against a good team. The Bears did the same thing in Week 2. Didn't seem to hurt them too much. I'm definitely worried about that O-Line, but the Dolphins and Rams are both great pass rush teams. Larry FItzgerald is being utilized more now. They have to fix that run game. Thankfully, they still have a great defense. That is good enough considering they've already won four games.
7.) New York Giants (3-2 = 152-111)
The Giants are one missed field goal away from 4-1 (much like the team up next). They've twice fell behind two lesser teams, which is a trend they can't keep doing, but they've reacted by dropping 41 points. Eli Manning is having a great season without his top target for much of it. They've pulled these guys from nowhere, like Barden, and plugged them in. One question I have for them, though, is that when is that pass rush going to show itself?
6.) New England Patriots (3-2 = 165-113)
Their quick-no-huddle worked really well, and that run game is scary. But, as we've seen from the Bills and Broncos, they have trouble handling good rush offenses (especially the Bills). The Patriots offense is humming but I'll like to see them run close to that effectively in Seattle. It is obvious that we've overreacted to Welker having a spotty two games, but I think no one is even talking about Gronk's slow start, which is partly due to his gimpy back. He missed his senior season of college because of a back injury. This could potentially be far more serious than Hernandez's ankle.
5.) Baltimore Ravens (4-1 = 130-89)
Unimpressive win on the road. Who cares. They still won. They still were never really threatened. It happens. All great teams win unimpressive games every now and then. Winning ugly is better than losing close. The Ravens are still a great team and their defense has picked itself up the last two weeks. Suggs might also be back after the bye for the stretch run, which would be a huge lift for them.
4.) Atlanta Falcons (5-0 = 148-93)
Unimpressive win on the road. Who cares. They still won. They still were never really threatened. It happens. All great teams win unimpressive games every now and then. Winning ugly is better than losing close. The Falcons are still a great team. They are now 3-0 on the road, and have been great at home in recent years. One thing to look for is their run game. They need to use Rodgers more. It is clear that Turner is about done.
3.) Chicago Bears (4-1 = 149-71)
So, this game was 3-3 at halftime. It ended 41-3. That was just a ridiculous performance all around by the Bears in teh 2nd half. Cutler to Marshall looked great. Tillman and Briggs continued their stellar play. Corey Wootton continued his good season. The Bears defense is playing as well as it did in 2006. They are getting contributions from offense and defense. Just a complete team playing really, really well.
2.) San Francisco 49ers (4-1 = 149-68)
All you need to know is that they were the first team ever to have 300+ yards passing and rushing. They averaged 8.1 ypc on 38 carries. That is insane. That makes what the Patriots have done the last two weeks on the ground look pedestrian. Alex Smith utilized all his WR targets, with Kyle Williams even making a cameo appearance. This team is scary right now, even moreso when they beat the Packers and Lions in great fashion. Winning two games 79-3 is about as dominant as it gets.
1.) Houston Texans (5-0 = 149-73)
Did I expect more from there in that game, yes I did. Was I slightly disappointed in their offense playing conservative, knowing their defense could take care of business? Yes. That said, teams can't play their best each week. I still think we haven't seem the Texans best. The closest was the first three quarters against Denver. That said, the Jets got some breaks (KO Ret TD, three Red Zone Field Goals forced, fake punt) and the Texans still won. They still haven't trailed in the second half. They still have about as complete a team as any in the NFL.
Ranking the Upcoming Week's Games
14.) Kansas City Chiefs (1-4) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3) (1:00 - CBS)
First up is a game that I could be pleased not seeing one singly play of, especially if Brady Quinn is involved. Neither of these two teams are going anywhere. Let's just move on,
13.) Oakland Raiders (1-3) @ Atlanta Falcons (5-0) (1:00 - CBS)12.) Buffalo Bills (2-3) @ Arizona Cardinals (4-1) (4:05 - CBS)
Now we get to the usual bad games, where one poor team is going on the road to a good to great team. The Raiders did get a week to prepare, but they aren't nearly as good as the Falcons. Their defense will be exposed. That exact same sentence can be written for the next game, but the Cardinals offense isn't great. This will be an interesting game pitting two teams with opposite strengths and weaknesses.
11.) Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) @ Tennessee Titans (1-4) (TNF)10.) Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) @ Cleveland Browns (0-5) (1:00 - CBS)
It's amazing that going into the week, this TNF game looks more unwatchable than last weeks Arizona @ St. Louis game. The Steelers should roll here, but if hte Titans can get their offense goign then it might be time to give up on the Steelers defense for 2012. As for the other game, they played a fun game three weeks ago, but that just sets up for a classic disappointing 20-10 type game.
9.) St. Louis Rams (3-2) @ Miami Dolphins (2-3) (1:00 - FOX)8.) Indianapolis Colts (2-2) @ New York Jets (X-X) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it 'Bracket Buster Week' just like they have for college basketball. The Rams are 3-2, but looking up at surprising 4-1's Minnesota and Arizona (of course, STL is surprising as well). The Dolphins are in that race for the Wild Cards with about 10 other teams. Two of their competitors are in teh next game. Yes, Andrew Luck might just lead the Colts to the playoffs. Will be interesting to see if the Jets have the same trouble selling tickets for this game.
7.) Detroit Lions (1-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-2) (1:00 - FOX)6.) Minnesota Vikings (4-1) @ Washington Redskins (2-3) (4:25 - FOX)
These next two games feature two NFC North vs. NFC East matchups, featuring two teams that have overperformed (the Eagles wildly so) against one underformer (Hello, Detroit!) and one exciting team that supposedly will be with its QB. For the Lions, if they fall to 1-4, count them out of any potential wild card chase because of the amount of teams that will be in front of them. In a way, same for the Redskins, who still have to play all six divisional games.
5.) Dallas Cowboys (2-2) @ Baltimore Ravens (4-1) (1:00 - FOX)4.) New England Patriots (3-2) @ Seattle Seahawks (3-2) (4:05 - CBS)
Two interesting intra-conference matchups here. The Cowboys are the league's second lowest scoring team, which doesn't bode well for them against a Ravens team that has rediscovered its defense. The last time these two played, teh Ravens shut down old Texas Stadium with two game-icing 75+ yard TD runs. As for the Patriots, it will be an interesting test of their new-found run game against a great defense in their house. The Seahawks have made every opposing offense look bad so far, and just manhandled last year's best rush offense. The Pats ran wild on two bad rush defenses. This could be different.
3.) Green Bay Packers (2-3) @ Houston Texans (5-0) (SNF)
Chase for Perfection + First home primetime game as a favorite against a team playing desperate. Who to take? I know where I'm leaning, because the desperation of Green Bay didn't help them against the Colts. If the Packers do lose, they'll be 2-4. Their schedule gets a lot easier, but still includes trips to MetLife, Soldier Field and Detroit. They need this win.
2.) Denver Broncos (2-3) @ San Diego Chargers (3-2) (MNF)
Talk about a team that needs a win. The Broncos have had the hardship of playing three of their four best opponents in the season's first five games (the remaining one is a trip to Baltimore). If they win this game, they tie the Chargers, have a head-to-head win on the road, and get a slate of easy games. If they lose, they're still in it for the division because of said easy schedule, but they probably can count out any shot at a bye. The CHargers can make a statement that they can beat a good team.
1.) New York Giants (3-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (4-1) (4:25 - FOX)
Even before the season this game looked good. Now, with the 49ers winning their past two games 79-3 (how crazy is that), while the Giants won by 14 after trailing by 14, this game looks even better. We all know what happened the last time these two met. It was an epic dominated by the two defensive lines. Both D-Lines have struggled relative to what was expected, while both offenses have flown high. The Giants get up for these big games (try to think of the last big game that they didn't show up for, outside of trips to New Orleans), and it should be great. As much as I like the Packers @ Texans game, this should've been the Sunday Night game.
Postseason Projections
AFC
1.) Houston Texans (14-2)
2.) Baltimore Ravens (12-4 - beat NE)
3.) New England Patriots (12-4)
4.) Denver Broncos (11-5)
5.) San Diego Chargers (10-6)
6.) Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
NFC
1.) San Francisco 49ers (13-3 - conference record)
2.) Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
3.) Chicago Bears (12-4)
4.) New York Giants (11-5)
5.) Minnesota Vikings (11-5)
6.) Green Bay Packers (10-6)
Looking Back at Last Week's Picks
Rams (+1.5) over Cardinals (CORRECT = 1-0) (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Falcons (-3) over Redskins (CORRECT = 2-0)
Eagles (+3.5) over Steelers (CORRECT = 3-0)
Packers (-7) over Colts (WRONG = 3-1)
Giants (-9) over Browns (CORRECT = 4-1)
Titans (+5.5) over Vikings (WRONG = 4-2)
Bengals (-3.5) over Dolphins (WRONG = 4-3)
Ravens (-6) over Chiefs (WRONG = 4-4)
Panthers (-3) over Seahawks (WRONG = 4-5)
Bears (-6) over Jaguars (CORRECT = 5-5) (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
49ers (-9.5) over Bills (CORRECT = 6-5)
Patriots (-7) over Broncos (CORRECT = 7-5)
Chargers (+3.5) over Saints (WRONG = 7-6)
Texans (-9) over Jets (WRONG = 7-7)
Week 5: 7-7 (Lock: 1-0; Upset: 1-0)
Year-to-Date: 44-32-1 (4-1; 4-0)
Best Picks: Nothing perfect this week. Closest was my pick of Patriots beating the Broncos 31-21, while they won 31-23. Nothing else was in the realm of close. Oh, and by the way, I once again missed the prime-time games, and am now 1-8 in the last three weeks, and 5-11 overall.
Power Rankings
32.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4 = 65-138)
Tennessee might be a worse team, and we'll get a good look when they meet later this season, but when you lose at home by 38, you deserve this spot. I realize the Bears are good, and so far three of the Jaguars losses are to teams a combined 13-2, but they've been utterly uncompetitive in their last three losses, and have a fluke 80-yard TD to thank for in their win. The defense is regressing. The offense still can't get anything going. Mike Mularkey 2.0 is going worse than 1.0.
31.) Tennessee Titans (1-4 = 88-181)
I can't believe I'm not ranking a team with one fluke win (three return TDs) and four losses by 20+, but this is really picking one turd over a true whopper. The Titans have the league's most schizophrenic running back. Their defense cannot rush the passer or cover receivers. Matt Hasselbeck look's old out there. Mike Munchak someone got this team to 9-7 last year, but that was as much of a mirage as it seemed at the time.
30.) Kansas City Chiefs (1-4 = 94-145)
Credit them for having a plan (run all the damn time) and sticking to it, and for playing very good defense. They still play hard for Romeo Crennel. But it is just hard to win a lot of games in the NFL with Matt Cassel, or now Brady Quinn, at quarterback. Also, screw the Chiefs fans for cheering when Cassel got hurt. That's an awful move from what is trumpeted up as a classy, dedicated fan base.
29.) Cleveland Browns (0-5 = 100-139)
In each of the past two years, the league's last winless team wasn't all that bad, and ended with .500+ second halfs (2010 Bills, 2011 Dolphins). I think it is the same this year, but the Browns don't have that easy schedule those two had. They have two winnable games up next (vs CIN, @ IND) then a three game stretch late with (@ OAK, vs KC, vs WAS). Target those games for their wins.
28.) Buffalo Bills (2-3 = 118-176)
Losing 52-28 after leading 21-7 to New England? Bad. Losing 45-3 and giving up 300 yards passing as well as 300 yards rushing? Historically bad. The Bills actually played substantially worse this week than they did against the Pats. Since that 21-7 lead, they've been outscored 90-10. The 49ers made them look completely amateurish. Best part is, because of the soft middle of teh AFC, they still have a shot at a Wild Card.
26.) Carolina Panthers (1-4 = 92-125)
Year 2 of Cam is going a lot worse than Year 1. Of course, his Year 1 stats were inflated from the juiced Week 1-6 era of 2011, but one would've thought he would have improved from last year to this. I still like Cam long term, but he's got to play better at home. I realize Carolina isn't a great field to play in, but they have been so much better in their road games so far this season.
25.) Oakland Raiders (1-3 = 67-125)
Hopefully they can use their week off to prepare for what could be another road blowout this week in Atlanta. That are work on making the Zone-Blocking Scheme and Darren McFadden gel. Or maybe sign corners that can actually play the position. The Raiders offense is still decent, but that defense is just atrocious. Reggie McKenzie better have a plan, because he gutted an average team.
24.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3 = 82-91)
It's nice that they have a -9 point differential. It is true they have been in every game, that they have played hard - however, they were incredibly outplayed against teh Giants and Cowboys, regardless of the final score. That all works early, but if they can't put together more wins, those close losses will explode into bigger losses. The 2011 Buccaneers lost some close games early as well.
27.) New York Jets (2-3 = 98-132)
That was a good performance, but that really belies the problem with the Jets. They played well. They played aggresive, going with a fake punt on their side of the field. They got a special teams TD, and their defense held up in the red zone. Yet, they still lost by 6. Either the Jets turn this into a moral victory and run through an easier schedule, or this was the last stand of the Alamo.
23.) Detroit Lions (1-3 = 92-125)
It says something about how weak the bad teams are that the Lions are only my 10th worse team. That said, some of that has to do with them allowing 4 Special Teams TDs the last two weeks, which swung two wins into losses. They've been better than that 1-3 record, but you look at the struggles of Matthew Stafford, the running game and the secondary (which hasn't been improved at all in the Mayhew/Schwartz era) and you think that maybe they aren't.
22.) Washington Redskins (2-3 = 140-147)
I hope RGIII isn't out long-term. Partly because he's fun to watch play, but mostly because it will just continue to propigate this bias against QBs who can run. RGIII isn't Vick as much as he is like Cam. That said, there is a risk and it has presented itself. I guess this is why Shanahan drafted another QB in a middle round in the draft. Lost in all of that was a better performance by the Redskins defense, who are slowly adjusting to the loss of Orakpo and Carriker.
21.) Miami Dolphins (2-3 = 103-103)
The Dolphins had a really nice win on Sunday, beating a good team on the road. Coupled with their two OT losses, they could be 4-1, or at least 3-2. That said, what we saw in Week 1, when they were thoroughly outclassed by the Texans, wasn't a mistake. I like this team, and they are another team unlikely in play for a Wild Card, but I think some will overrate their recent performance a little too much.
20.) New Orleans Saints (1-4 = 141-154)
Congrats on getting off the schneid. Now, at least admit you were fortunate with a really questionable pass interference call late in the game. I actually came away from that game more impressed with the Chargers, but that was a good comeback by the Saints. Because the NFC is more top-heavy than expected, the Saints will have a tough time getting back into the mix. That loss to the Packers will loom larger each week.
19.) Indianapolis Colts (2-2 = 91-110)
I hope Pagano's first treatment went as well as the Colts in the 2nd half. What a performance. Reggie Wayne isn't a HOF player, but that was a HOF performance. Andrew Luck had his first great comeback, and it was similar to Manning's best, coming back from 21-3 down late in the 2nd half. The real development, however, was the Colts finally showed some life with their new 3-4.
18.) Dallas Cowboys (2-2 = 65-88)
Honestly, after their dreadful performance on MNF, that was a good time to have a bye. The Cowboys hopefully used it to make sure Romo doesn't throw 5 (or really 4) picks against the Ravens, and hopefully they used it to figure out how to turn their high yardage numbers into more points. Scoring 260 points (what the Cowboys are on pace for) is not exactly going to cut it in a high-scoring division.
17.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-2 = 80-99)
That was an OK performance, but man, can Mike Vick hold onto the ball. That first fumble at the Steelers 2 was awful. They could have still won, but their defense was gashed late. No OPI this time around for the Eagles. They've played 4 close games and gone 3-1. If that stays, they still have a shot, but if that equalizes to about .500, that is where the Eagles will, deservedly, be.
16.) Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2 = 93-89)
Good win for a team that sorely needed it. If they lost to Philly at home to drop to 1-3 then they would really be in a tough spot. Losing Polamalu again hurts as their defense finally did look like a defense that resembled the Steelers from 2008-2011. Harrison looks a little slow, but that could improve. Mike Wallace is really struggling early. I didn't watch much of the game, so it could be that Nnamdi was covering him most of the day.
15.) Seattle Seahawks (3-2 = 86-70)
This is a 'show-me' game for the Seahawks. They get the NFL's second hottest rushing attack (lest anyone forget, the 49ers have put up better rush numbers the last two weeks than New England), but get them in that bandbox in Seattle. They've made every opposing offense look flaccid, and need to do that to the Patriots. On the other side, it was good to see Wilson getting easier throws to make. He's not very good, but what he did against Carolina would be passable most weeks.
14.) St. Louis Rams (3-2 = 96-94)
Through 5 weeks, all four NFC West teams are in my Top-15. Let that sink in. The Rams pass rush was incredible against Arizona. Now, that was against Arizona, but if they can do that more or less in most of their games, they are a definite Wild-Card competitors. Sam Bradford still has no weapons, but at some point, boy's gotta get more accurate. They are really tough to beat in that dome, but I want to see them show up outside. Last time they left, they were neutered 23-6 by the Bears.
13.) Cincinnati Bengals (3-2 = 125-129)
What a missed opportunity. They can't drop games to teams like the Dolphins if they want to win a Wild Card again. The 2011 Bengals didn't do it, the 2012 version can't either. I still like this team, and their defense has really stepped up the past two weeks, but with that loss, they've just let a ton of teams get near them in the standings.
12.) San Diego Chargers (3-2 = 124-102)
That was a tough loss. They just fell apart after that roughing the passer call negated the pick-6. They played well, but losing to the Saints in New Orleans isn't as forgiveable as it was a year ago. Philip Rivers put up nice stats, but he just doesn't look right. That was an awful pick he threw. The Chargers need to show up for this game on Monday. They've been able to beat Manning by doing two teams: pressuring him up the middle, throttling the run game. Both will be hard to do against Denver, at least harder than it was against Indianapolis.
11.) Green Bay Packers (2-3 = 112-111)
Losing to the 49ers: OK, the 49ers are a great team. Losing to the Seahawks: OK, they are tough to beat at home and have a great defense, and the Packers should have won. Losing to the Colts: Not OK. They were up 21-3. What happened to that O-Line in the 2nd Half. The Packers offense seems to go into huge stretches where they get nothing. Greg Jennings being 100% seems to mean a lot more to that offense than people think.
10.) Minnesota Vikings (4-1 = 120-79)
They just dominated a team in a trap game. Good teams dominate bad teams. They just did that to the Titans. That was a bigger statement to me than any of their previous games (especially that fluke win in Detroit). The Vikings have found a way to make a supposed shortcoming (lack of weapons) be erased by great play-calling and utilizing Percy Harvin the way he should be. That defense is so improved from last year. They don't need Jared Allen to be superman to hold a team down anymore. I always thought Leslie Frazier would be a good coach. I had no idea.
9.) Denver Broncos (2-3 = 135-114)
Again, part of this is pure homerism, but the three Denver losses were by 6, 6 and 10 to three teams in my Top-6, two being on the road. They've had an extremely tough schedule, and getting a road MNF game against doesn't help, but look at their schedule after the bye. Look at the way Manning has been playing. Look at that defense against bad to above average rush offenses (they've been shredded by two of the better ones in Houston and New England). They're going on a run soon, the only question is will that start this weekend or not.
8.) Arizona Cardinals (4-1 = 94-78)
I'm not dropping them too far by looking bad on the road on TNF against a good team. The Bears did the same thing in Week 2. Didn't seem to hurt them too much. I'm definitely worried about that O-Line, but the Dolphins and Rams are both great pass rush teams. Larry FItzgerald is being utilized more now. They have to fix that run game. Thankfully, they still have a great defense. That is good enough considering they've already won four games.
7.) New York Giants (3-2 = 152-111)
The Giants are one missed field goal away from 4-1 (much like the team up next). They've twice fell behind two lesser teams, which is a trend they can't keep doing, but they've reacted by dropping 41 points. Eli Manning is having a great season without his top target for much of it. They've pulled these guys from nowhere, like Barden, and plugged them in. One question I have for them, though, is that when is that pass rush going to show itself?
6.) New England Patriots (3-2 = 165-113)
Their quick-no-huddle worked really well, and that run game is scary. But, as we've seen from the Bills and Broncos, they have trouble handling good rush offenses (especially the Bills). The Patriots offense is humming but I'll like to see them run close to that effectively in Seattle. It is obvious that we've overreacted to Welker having a spotty two games, but I think no one is even talking about Gronk's slow start, which is partly due to his gimpy back. He missed his senior season of college because of a back injury. This could potentially be far more serious than Hernandez's ankle.
5.) Baltimore Ravens (4-1 = 130-89)
Unimpressive win on the road. Who cares. They still won. They still were never really threatened. It happens. All great teams win unimpressive games every now and then. Winning ugly is better than losing close. The Ravens are still a great team and their defense has picked itself up the last two weeks. Suggs might also be back after the bye for the stretch run, which would be a huge lift for them.
4.) Atlanta Falcons (5-0 = 148-93)
Unimpressive win on the road. Who cares. They still won. They still were never really threatened. It happens. All great teams win unimpressive games every now and then. Winning ugly is better than losing close. The Falcons are still a great team. They are now 3-0 on the road, and have been great at home in recent years. One thing to look for is their run game. They need to use Rodgers more. It is clear that Turner is about done.
3.) Chicago Bears (4-1 = 149-71)
So, this game was 3-3 at halftime. It ended 41-3. That was just a ridiculous performance all around by the Bears in teh 2nd half. Cutler to Marshall looked great. Tillman and Briggs continued their stellar play. Corey Wootton continued his good season. The Bears defense is playing as well as it did in 2006. They are getting contributions from offense and defense. Just a complete team playing really, really well.
2.) San Francisco 49ers (4-1 = 149-68)
All you need to know is that they were the first team ever to have 300+ yards passing and rushing. They averaged 8.1 ypc on 38 carries. That is insane. That makes what the Patriots have done the last two weeks on the ground look pedestrian. Alex Smith utilized all his WR targets, with Kyle Williams even making a cameo appearance. This team is scary right now, even moreso when they beat the Packers and Lions in great fashion. Winning two games 79-3 is about as dominant as it gets.
1.) Houston Texans (5-0 = 149-73)
Did I expect more from there in that game, yes I did. Was I slightly disappointed in their offense playing conservative, knowing their defense could take care of business? Yes. That said, teams can't play their best each week. I still think we haven't seem the Texans best. The closest was the first three quarters against Denver. That said, the Jets got some breaks (KO Ret TD, three Red Zone Field Goals forced, fake punt) and the Texans still won. They still haven't trailed in the second half. They still have about as complete a team as any in the NFL.
Ranking the Upcoming Week's Games
14.) Kansas City Chiefs (1-4) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3) (1:00 - CBS)
First up is a game that I could be pleased not seeing one singly play of, especially if Brady Quinn is involved. Neither of these two teams are going anywhere. Let's just move on,
13.) Oakland Raiders (1-3) @ Atlanta Falcons (5-0) (1:00 - CBS)12.) Buffalo Bills (2-3) @ Arizona Cardinals (4-1) (4:05 - CBS)
Now we get to the usual bad games, where one poor team is going on the road to a good to great team. The Raiders did get a week to prepare, but they aren't nearly as good as the Falcons. Their defense will be exposed. That exact same sentence can be written for the next game, but the Cardinals offense isn't great. This will be an interesting game pitting two teams with opposite strengths and weaknesses.
11.) Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) @ Tennessee Titans (1-4) (TNF)10.) Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) @ Cleveland Browns (0-5) (1:00 - CBS)
It's amazing that going into the week, this TNF game looks more unwatchable than last weeks Arizona @ St. Louis game. The Steelers should roll here, but if hte Titans can get their offense goign then it might be time to give up on the Steelers defense for 2012. As for the other game, they played a fun game three weeks ago, but that just sets up for a classic disappointing 20-10 type game.
9.) St. Louis Rams (3-2) @ Miami Dolphins (2-3) (1:00 - FOX)8.) Indianapolis Colts (2-2) @ New York Jets (X-X) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it 'Bracket Buster Week' just like they have for college basketball. The Rams are 3-2, but looking up at surprising 4-1's Minnesota and Arizona (of course, STL is surprising as well). The Dolphins are in that race for the Wild Cards with about 10 other teams. Two of their competitors are in teh next game. Yes, Andrew Luck might just lead the Colts to the playoffs. Will be interesting to see if the Jets have the same trouble selling tickets for this game.
7.) Detroit Lions (1-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-2) (1:00 - FOX)6.) Minnesota Vikings (4-1) @ Washington Redskins (2-3) (4:25 - FOX)
These next two games feature two NFC North vs. NFC East matchups, featuring two teams that have overperformed (the Eagles wildly so) against one underformer (Hello, Detroit!) and one exciting team that supposedly will be with its QB. For the Lions, if they fall to 1-4, count them out of any potential wild card chase because of the amount of teams that will be in front of them. In a way, same for the Redskins, who still have to play all six divisional games.
5.) Dallas Cowboys (2-2) @ Baltimore Ravens (4-1) (1:00 - FOX)4.) New England Patriots (3-2) @ Seattle Seahawks (3-2) (4:05 - CBS)
Two interesting intra-conference matchups here. The Cowboys are the league's second lowest scoring team, which doesn't bode well for them against a Ravens team that has rediscovered its defense. The last time these two played, teh Ravens shut down old Texas Stadium with two game-icing 75+ yard TD runs. As for the Patriots, it will be an interesting test of their new-found run game against a great defense in their house. The Seahawks have made every opposing offense look bad so far, and just manhandled last year's best rush offense. The Pats ran wild on two bad rush defenses. This could be different.
3.) Green Bay Packers (2-3) @ Houston Texans (5-0) (SNF)
Chase for Perfection + First home primetime game as a favorite against a team playing desperate. Who to take? I know where I'm leaning, because the desperation of Green Bay didn't help them against the Colts. If the Packers do lose, they'll be 2-4. Their schedule gets a lot easier, but still includes trips to MetLife, Soldier Field and Detroit. They need this win.
2.) Denver Broncos (2-3) @ San Diego Chargers (3-2) (MNF)
Talk about a team that needs a win. The Broncos have had the hardship of playing three of their four best opponents in the season's first five games (the remaining one is a trip to Baltimore). If they win this game, they tie the Chargers, have a head-to-head win on the road, and get a slate of easy games. If they lose, they're still in it for the division because of said easy schedule, but they probably can count out any shot at a bye. The CHargers can make a statement that they can beat a good team.
1.) New York Giants (3-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (4-1) (4:25 - FOX)
Even before the season this game looked good. Now, with the 49ers winning their past two games 79-3 (how crazy is that), while the Giants won by 14 after trailing by 14, this game looks even better. We all know what happened the last time these two met. It was an epic dominated by the two defensive lines. Both D-Lines have struggled relative to what was expected, while both offenses have flown high. The Giants get up for these big games (try to think of the last big game that they didn't show up for, outside of trips to New Orleans), and it should be great. As much as I like the Packers @ Texans game, this should've been the Sunday Night game.
Postseason Projections
AFC
1.) Houston Texans (14-2)
2.) Baltimore Ravens (12-4 - beat NE)
3.) New England Patriots (12-4)
4.) Denver Broncos (11-5)
5.) San Diego Chargers (10-6)
6.) Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
NFC
1.) San Francisco 49ers (13-3 - conference record)
2.) Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
3.) Chicago Bears (12-4)
4.) New York Giants (11-5)
5.) Minnesota Vikings (11-5)
6.) Green Bay Packers (10-6)
