That was an interesting night. First came the meltdown of the Braves' famed defense. Then the meltdown of the umpire. Then the meltdown of the Rangers. Anyway, in the end we are left with two intra-division DSes for the first time ever. I really like this slate of playoff teams, overall. A couple Cinderella stories (Orioles, A's), two wire-to-wire juggernauts (Nationals, Reds), a quietly dominant team in teh 2nd half (Giants), the token bad-record team (Tigers), the defending Champs (Cardinals) and the team we all get to hate (Yankees). You couldn't script it any better.
NLDS
(1) Washington Nationals (98-64) vs (5) St. Louis Cardinals (88-74)
I think the Nationals are a little overrated. They're a good team, but not 10 games better than St. Louis. The Nationals have better pitching, even without Strasburg, with Gio, Zimmerman, Edwin Jackson and, I guess, Ross Detweiler. That's better than St. Louis's foursome of Wainwright (who had just a decent year, for him), Lynn, Lohse and the other guy. That said, I have no idea how the Nationals won this many games with that offense. They have just one player with an OBP above .350 (Jayson Werth). Bryce Harper is one of their three best hitters and he didn't even have that great of a year. On the other side, the Cardinals have the best offense in the MLB. I think this goes 5 games (as easily could all of the series), and I'll take the Nationals but if I'm Washington, I would rather have faced the Braves.
Nationals in 5.
(2) Cincinnati Reds (97-65) vs (3) San Francisco Giants (94-68)
For years, the Reds hit gobs of Home Runs, while the Giants had great pitching. Well, you know what? This is a complete role reversal. The Reds can still hit home runs, but they have major pieces of the lineup that don't get on base or hit with too much power (Zack Cozart, Drew Stubbs). They do have the best hitter in baseball (Joey Votto, screw Cabrera and Trout, he's the best hitter in baseball). They do have a deep, good pitching staff with a great bullpen. All their four starters pitched 200+ innings, with ERAs under 4.00. Cueto, Latos, Bailey and Arroyo is a great playoff rotation. They might have the best bullpen in baseball is well, with Chapman finishing it off with his tidy 15.3 K/9. On the other side, considering park factors, the Giants offense is quite good. Buster Posey is the presumptive MVP leader. Brandon Belt had a nice campaign. Sandoval had a bounce-back year, and Angel Pagan had a nice season. Their pitching is what could kill them. I don't know if they plan to pitch Lincecum as a starter, but Zito should get that 4th spot. Bumgarner and Vogelsong both had mediocre second halves. Without Wilson, I don't trust their bullpen. The Giants are a good team. The Reds are just better, and better in the ways that recent history would've favored the Giants.
Reds in 4.
ALDS
(1) New York Yankees (95-67) vs (5) Baltimore Orioles (93-69)
I like the Rangers, but I'm happy that the incredible run of the 2012 Baltimore Orioles was not wasted in one playoff game. They'll get a playoff game in Camden Yards. The atmosphere should be incredible. Anyway, as for the series. The Yankees might not be close to the offense they were from 2004-2007, but in a sport with lower offensive levels, they are just as effective. The worry is, though, that some of their more effective players in 2012, like Nick Swisher, are historically unreliable in the playoffs. Their rotation really goes two deep, but Girardi's overmanaging of a bullpen might work better with a really effective bullpen with Soriano, Robertson, Rapada, Logan and Eppley all being effective. As for the Orioles, we all know that they have a poor run differential. They are a .500 team that managed to win ten extra games. That said, they have a decent lineup with a ton of power. They'll need that power as putting together a rally with singles and doubles won't work with a bad OBP team. With their rotation, who knows. The bullpen is great, but the starters are mostly erratic and awful. I have no idea if they can hold the Yankees at bay, but I want to believe it. This isn't a great Yankee team. I'll ride momentum, and the best story in baseball.
Orioles in 5
(2) Oakland Athletics (94-68) vs (3) Detroit Tigers (88-74)
The A's are a strange team. They have very little hitting outside of Cespedes, Gomes, Reddick and Carter, but they are really deep in their bench, providing them great pinch options. The key is that their pitching holds up to what it was in the regular season. Griffin seemed to tire late in the season, but he still can be an option. Tommy Millone can't do anything on the road, but if they plan it well, they can use him just at home. McCarthy and Parker have both had good years, and there is the potential for staff ace Brett Anderson to return from injury. Their bullpen is great. On the other side is the most top-heavy team in the tournament. They have four regulars with OPS+'s above 130, including Mr. Triple Crown. They have four under 100. If Cabrera, Fielder and Austin Jackson have good postseasons, the sky is the limit. Their pitching has Verlander, who was about 95% as good as he was in 2011. Max Scherzer was incredible in the 2nd half, quietly being #2 in K/9 in all of baseball behind Strasburg, and Doug Fister also had a good second half. They bullpen, though, is the issue. The Tigers have the worst bullpen of any team left in the playoffs, and those always factor in a large way in October. I have no idea. Do I really want to be left with a potential Cinderella bowl with the A's and Orioles? Sadly, no. I like the idea of the Tigers and Orioles, playing in two of the AL's most beautiful retro parks. It's fate, really.
Tigers in 4
NLDS
(1) Washington Nationals (98-64) vs (5) St. Louis Cardinals (88-74)
I think the Nationals are a little overrated. They're a good team, but not 10 games better than St. Louis. The Nationals have better pitching, even without Strasburg, with Gio, Zimmerman, Edwin Jackson and, I guess, Ross Detweiler. That's better than St. Louis's foursome of Wainwright (who had just a decent year, for him), Lynn, Lohse and the other guy. That said, I have no idea how the Nationals won this many games with that offense. They have just one player with an OBP above .350 (Jayson Werth). Bryce Harper is one of their three best hitters and he didn't even have that great of a year. On the other side, the Cardinals have the best offense in the MLB. I think this goes 5 games (as easily could all of the series), and I'll take the Nationals but if I'm Washington, I would rather have faced the Braves.
Nationals in 5.
(2) Cincinnati Reds (97-65) vs (3) San Francisco Giants (94-68)
For years, the Reds hit gobs of Home Runs, while the Giants had great pitching. Well, you know what? This is a complete role reversal. The Reds can still hit home runs, but they have major pieces of the lineup that don't get on base or hit with too much power (Zack Cozart, Drew Stubbs). They do have the best hitter in baseball (Joey Votto, screw Cabrera and Trout, he's the best hitter in baseball). They do have a deep, good pitching staff with a great bullpen. All their four starters pitched 200+ innings, with ERAs under 4.00. Cueto, Latos, Bailey and Arroyo is a great playoff rotation. They might have the best bullpen in baseball is well, with Chapman finishing it off with his tidy 15.3 K/9. On the other side, considering park factors, the Giants offense is quite good. Buster Posey is the presumptive MVP leader. Brandon Belt had a nice campaign. Sandoval had a bounce-back year, and Angel Pagan had a nice season. Their pitching is what could kill them. I don't know if they plan to pitch Lincecum as a starter, but Zito should get that 4th spot. Bumgarner and Vogelsong both had mediocre second halves. Without Wilson, I don't trust their bullpen. The Giants are a good team. The Reds are just better, and better in the ways that recent history would've favored the Giants.
Reds in 4.
ALDS
(1) New York Yankees (95-67) vs (5) Baltimore Orioles (93-69)
I like the Rangers, but I'm happy that the incredible run of the 2012 Baltimore Orioles was not wasted in one playoff game. They'll get a playoff game in Camden Yards. The atmosphere should be incredible. Anyway, as for the series. The Yankees might not be close to the offense they were from 2004-2007, but in a sport with lower offensive levels, they are just as effective. The worry is, though, that some of their more effective players in 2012, like Nick Swisher, are historically unreliable in the playoffs. Their rotation really goes two deep, but Girardi's overmanaging of a bullpen might work better with a really effective bullpen with Soriano, Robertson, Rapada, Logan and Eppley all being effective. As for the Orioles, we all know that they have a poor run differential. They are a .500 team that managed to win ten extra games. That said, they have a decent lineup with a ton of power. They'll need that power as putting together a rally with singles and doubles won't work with a bad OBP team. With their rotation, who knows. The bullpen is great, but the starters are mostly erratic and awful. I have no idea if they can hold the Yankees at bay, but I want to believe it. This isn't a great Yankee team. I'll ride momentum, and the best story in baseball.
Orioles in 5
(2) Oakland Athletics (94-68) vs (3) Detroit Tigers (88-74)
The A's are a strange team. They have very little hitting outside of Cespedes, Gomes, Reddick and Carter, but they are really deep in their bench, providing them great pinch options. The key is that their pitching holds up to what it was in the regular season. Griffin seemed to tire late in the season, but he still can be an option. Tommy Millone can't do anything on the road, but if they plan it well, they can use him just at home. McCarthy and Parker have both had good years, and there is the potential for staff ace Brett Anderson to return from injury. Their bullpen is great. On the other side is the most top-heavy team in the tournament. They have four regulars with OPS+'s above 130, including Mr. Triple Crown. They have four under 100. If Cabrera, Fielder and Austin Jackson have good postseasons, the sky is the limit. Their pitching has Verlander, who was about 95% as good as he was in 2011. Max Scherzer was incredible in the 2nd half, quietly being #2 in K/9 in all of baseball behind Strasburg, and Doug Fister also had a good second half. They bullpen, though, is the issue. The Tigers have the worst bullpen of any team left in the playoffs, and those always factor in a large way in October. I have no idea. Do I really want to be left with a potential Cinderella bowl with the A's and Orioles? Sadly, no. I like the idea of the Tigers and Orioles, playing in two of the AL's most beautiful retro parks. It's fate, really.
Tigers in 4
