Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) @ Tennessee Titans (1-4) (PIT -5.5)
These two teams were the #1-2 seeds in the AFC in 2008, my favorite regular season to date in my time watching football. They played the season opener the next season, which the Steelers won 16-13 in OT. Since then, the Steelers have kept up their great standing, while the Titans fluttered through different QBs and the entirety of the CJ2K era. Anyway, back to today's reality. The Titans are without Locker, still with Johnson and have a deteriorating defense and a coach that I don't trust. The Steelers have none of these things except for no Polamalu again. Luckily for them, the Titans have little offense these days and the Steelers should do fine.
Steelers 27 - Titans 16 (PIT -5.5)
Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) @ Cleveland Browns (0-5) (CIN -1)
I feel like this line is taunting me for overrating the Bengals before last week. That said, they are still good enough to beat bad teams. Cleveland isn't awful the way Tennessee and Jacksonville are, but that doesn't mean they are good either. They played three weeks ago and the Bengals won rather comfortably. The Browns defense was awful against the Giants and I could see some of the same problems creeping up here. That said, I don't think they'll go 0-16, and other than a three game stretch later, this is the Browns most winnable game, and it is at home. They get it done.
Bengals 24 - Browns 27 (CLE +1)
Indianapolis Colts (2-2) @ New York Jets (2-3) (NYJ -3)
Some see the Jets performance on MNF, where they fought about as hard as they could, as a sign that they were back. I saw it differently, a sign that they were desperate, still lost and this might be a let down off of a short week. Of course, the Colts might be ready for a letdown after their emotional, incredible win. As for the game itself, the Colts just lost Donald Brown, who had been running decently, but the Jets have an awful rush defense anyway. The Jets also don't have much of a pass rush so Luck might have time, a luxury he hasn't had in any game so far other than against Jacksonville. Call me crazy, but I like the Colts here. There will still be some emotion for playing for Pagano (this is morbid, but unlike a death, the coach is still sick and recovering). The Jets have a short week. The Colts defense also looked alive for the first time. I can see that continuing.
Colts 23 - Jets 20 (IND +3)
Kansas City Chiefs (1-4) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3) (TB -3.5)
I can't stand even looking at this particular game. It just seems so, well, ugly. I realize there are about one of these a week, but this just seems so much worse. The matchup lacks any historical significance and they aren't that good now. I'm at a loss of who to pick and for what reason. If I was placing bets, I probably wouldn't touch this game, which doesn't even feature a value-line either way. At gunpoint, I'll take the team coming off the bye at home over the team that just lost a physical game against Baltimore, going on the road without their starting QB (even if Quinn is barely any worse).
Chiefs 16 - Buccaneers 24 (TB -3.5)
Oakland Raiders (1-3) @ Atlanta Falcons (5-0) (ATL -8.5)
Does the bye week really mean that much? There is really no other reason I can think of for why the Falcons are only favored by 8.5 in this game. They are definitely better than Oakland, and get them at a 1PM start at home. The Raiders pass defense is awful. The Raiders offense is good, and they are as healthy as they have been, but then I can't see them keeping up. Again, with the lack of value in this line, I probably would stay away. I've been burned by the line before, so this time, I'll go with the people who know this stuff.
Raiders 24 - Falcons 31 (OAK +8.5)
Dallas Cowboys (2-2) @ Baltimore Ravens (4-1) (BAL -3.5)
Another odd line. I guess the bye week theory is real. That said, the Cowboys aren't great after the bye, and the last three times they went on the road after the bye they lost. Baltimore is a tough place to play, lest we forget. The Ravens haven't lost a home game since a Week 14 loss to the Steelers back in 2010. Since then, they've won 12 straight, rarely being challenged (only thrice winning by less than a TD, against the Saints in 2010, a flukey comeback against Arizona last year, and the Patriots in Week 3 this year). They are better than Dallas. Their weakness is their defense (which is merely good instead of great) but the Cowboys have huge problems scoring right now. I don't like this pick because it seems too easy, but the line has great value. If I was betting, I would buy a point and bet the Ravens -2.5, but alas, this isn't Vegas.
Cowboys 17 - Ravens 27 (BAL -3.5)
Detroit Lions (1-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-2) (PHI -4.5)
For the first time, I don't think this is a line that is low purely because the Lions are coming off a bye, but a signal from Vegas that they don't believe the Eagles are a good team, and I completely agree. The Lions aren't great either, but they get two weeks to prepare, and they must've been hammered in that time by Schwartz and company for blowing that Vikings game. What worries me about picking the Lions is that Nnamdi could do well against Calvin, but the Lions do have other weapons. I don't like picking them here, but that line for Philly is quite high. Good value here, and I can see the Lions d-line pounding Vick time and time again behind a porous o-line.
Lions 27 - Eagles 24 (DET +4.5)
St. Louis Rams (3-2) @ Miami Dolphins (2-3) (MIA -3.5)
I get it, the Dolphins are a decent team. They will probably be hanging around competing for a Wild Card spot all season. But, so will the Rams. That defense has played well outside of St. Louis (even if they are 0-2 on the road), and they had 10 days to prepare. The Rams have the defense to shut down the resurgent Dolphins offense, but will they score enough points? Who knows. Bradford has been decent, but now he's without his security blanket in Amendola. I really have no idea where to go with this game, but I think the Rams are a better team, and they are used to playing 1PM games since that's when most of their home games are. I don't like the Dolphins at home. That place has no energy, and they often look lethargic.
Rams 20 - Dolphins 17 (STL +3.5)
New England Patriots (3-2) @ Seattle Seahawks (3-2) (NE -3.5)
The Patriots have run for 500 yards over the last two weeks. Of course, one of the teams they played gave up 300 yards last week to San Francisco. The other was Denver, who was carved up by the other good run offense they played (Houston). The Seahawks are a different animal. They are a top-5 rush defense in every major basic category (yards, y/c), and in my choice advanced stat, ranking #3 in Football Outsiders's DVOA for rush defense. Their pass defense is no slouch, with one of the best secondaries and a good pass rush. That stadium will be a tough place. There is little chance the Patriots put up anything close to what they have on the ground the last two weeks. Also, lost in that rushing bonanza has been a regressing defense from a team that started out the year great on D. I can't see the Seahawks putting up a lot of points, but they'll make it competitive. Sadly, Vegas feels this way as well, and the line is lower than most Patriots games. Here's another case where I would buy the point and make it Pats -2.5
Patriots 24 - Seahawks 20 (NE -3.5)
Buffalo Bills (2-3) @ Arizona Cardinals (4-1) (ARZ -4.5)
The Bills finally get a chance on defense. They have the worst defense in the NFL, worse than the Saints. Their hyped D-Line can't stop the run at all. They have a hard time stopping the pass. That said, they get a team with an o-line that has played about as bad as any o-line can play the last two weeks, and a team with no run game that lost its top two runners. That all said, the Cardinals are still just a much better team. Their defense is for real, and while Fitzpatrick is good at getting the ball out quickly in that offense, they have the corners and cover guys to get some picks that Fitz will definitely throw them. While this is a better matchup for the Bills than NE or SF, they are still just not as good and playing on the road in a really tough place to win.
Bills 17 - Cardinals 27 (ARZ -4.5) (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
Minnesota Vikings (4-1) @ Washington Redskins (2-3) (WAS -2)
Obviously, this is a tough game to pick with the Griffin situation up in the air. He's been cleared, but he can easily take one hit and have his symptoms reoccur. (BTW, I love because it is a QB that I haven't heard one person question him being cleared just two days after his concussion). If he does play, that team is dangerous. They can upset Minnesota. Their defense has really stepped up the last two weeks after losing Orakpo and Carriker. Their run game is still humming. The Vikings also might have a harder time with their Special Teams on the road outside. At some point, the Vikings will have a game that resembles what they are: a good but far from great team. Better teams have dropped games to worse teams.
Vikings 23 - Redskins 27 (WAS -2)
New York Giants (3-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (4-1) (SF -5)
This was the hardest game for me to pick. The high line screams taking the Giants. There is great value in picking a team that, with the exception of games in New Orleans, rarely gets beat by a touchdown or more. The Giants pass rush is a sleeping giant right now, and could explode in any given game. It easily could be this one. The 49ers are not as good as they've been the last two weeks because, frankly, no team is ever that good. There is a revenge factor for the 49ers from the NFC Title game, but also the Giants are notorious for showing up in big spots like this. Despite the 49ers explosion last week, I still don't think they have the pass game to take advantage of the Giants suspect secondary. Call it a hunch, and more than that, sticking with a team that has never started worse than 6-2 since 2004, Coughlin and Eli's first seasons in NYG.
Giants 27 - 49ers 24 (NYG +5)
Green Bay Packers (2-3) @ Houston Texans (5-0) (HOU -3.5)
Can I see the Packers at 2-4? Not really, but here we are. It could easily happen. They just aren't nearly as good offensively of last year. Some of that is natural regression from one of the most exact and efficient offenses ever. Some of it is Greg Jennings' injury (even if he plays against Houston, hard to see him at 100%). Some of it is the line playing worse than it has since 2009. Add it all up, and they are 2-3, and two of those losses are uncontroversially deserved. The Texans have zero losses and haven't yet trailed in the 2nd half. This is a tough spot for the Packers, against a team playing its first real huge primetime game at home. No one on the Packers can really block Watt, Barwin, Smith and Co. They have no running game to exploit a merely good rush defense. The Texans on the other side have the run game to exploit the Packers average rush defense, and the pass game to boot, with the o-line to slow Matthews. Just not a good matchup. I don't know who is against Houston.
Packers 20 - Texans 30 (HOU -3.5)
Denver Broncos (2-3) @ San Diego Chargers (3-2) (SD -2)
Even if the Broncos lose, I still think they make the playoffs. That schedule going forward is just so soft. That said, a win here would be huge. They would tie the Chargers at 3-3 with a head-to-head win in San Diego having just finished the toughest opening six games I can ever remember. Manning has actually been fantastic. What hasn't is their third down defense, which has been bad in every game apart from Atlanta and Oakland. The Chargers have been mediocre on 3rd down, and have no real running game. Finally, their o-line isn't looking too good, and neither are their corners. The Chargers 'owning' Manning wasn't really ever about Manning, but about 'owning' Saturday, the running game and the Colts defense. All those things are gone and this isn't a very good Charger team.
Broncos 31 - Chargers 24 (DEN +2) (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
These two teams were the #1-2 seeds in the AFC in 2008, my favorite regular season to date in my time watching football. They played the season opener the next season, which the Steelers won 16-13 in OT. Since then, the Steelers have kept up their great standing, while the Titans fluttered through different QBs and the entirety of the CJ2K era. Anyway, back to today's reality. The Titans are without Locker, still with Johnson and have a deteriorating defense and a coach that I don't trust. The Steelers have none of these things except for no Polamalu again. Luckily for them, the Titans have little offense these days and the Steelers should do fine.
Steelers 27 - Titans 16 (PIT -5.5)
Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) @ Cleveland Browns (0-5) (CIN -1)
I feel like this line is taunting me for overrating the Bengals before last week. That said, they are still good enough to beat bad teams. Cleveland isn't awful the way Tennessee and Jacksonville are, but that doesn't mean they are good either. They played three weeks ago and the Bengals won rather comfortably. The Browns defense was awful against the Giants and I could see some of the same problems creeping up here. That said, I don't think they'll go 0-16, and other than a three game stretch later, this is the Browns most winnable game, and it is at home. They get it done.
Bengals 24 - Browns 27 (CLE +1)
Indianapolis Colts (2-2) @ New York Jets (2-3) (NYJ -3)
Some see the Jets performance on MNF, where they fought about as hard as they could, as a sign that they were back. I saw it differently, a sign that they were desperate, still lost and this might be a let down off of a short week. Of course, the Colts might be ready for a letdown after their emotional, incredible win. As for the game itself, the Colts just lost Donald Brown, who had been running decently, but the Jets have an awful rush defense anyway. The Jets also don't have much of a pass rush so Luck might have time, a luxury he hasn't had in any game so far other than against Jacksonville. Call me crazy, but I like the Colts here. There will still be some emotion for playing for Pagano (this is morbid, but unlike a death, the coach is still sick and recovering). The Jets have a short week. The Colts defense also looked alive for the first time. I can see that continuing.
Colts 23 - Jets 20 (IND +3)
Kansas City Chiefs (1-4) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3) (TB -3.5)
I can't stand even looking at this particular game. It just seems so, well, ugly. I realize there are about one of these a week, but this just seems so much worse. The matchup lacks any historical significance and they aren't that good now. I'm at a loss of who to pick and for what reason. If I was placing bets, I probably wouldn't touch this game, which doesn't even feature a value-line either way. At gunpoint, I'll take the team coming off the bye at home over the team that just lost a physical game against Baltimore, going on the road without their starting QB (even if Quinn is barely any worse).
Chiefs 16 - Buccaneers 24 (TB -3.5)
Oakland Raiders (1-3) @ Atlanta Falcons (5-0) (ATL -8.5)
Does the bye week really mean that much? There is really no other reason I can think of for why the Falcons are only favored by 8.5 in this game. They are definitely better than Oakland, and get them at a 1PM start at home. The Raiders pass defense is awful. The Raiders offense is good, and they are as healthy as they have been, but then I can't see them keeping up. Again, with the lack of value in this line, I probably would stay away. I've been burned by the line before, so this time, I'll go with the people who know this stuff.
Raiders 24 - Falcons 31 (OAK +8.5)
Dallas Cowboys (2-2) @ Baltimore Ravens (4-1) (BAL -3.5)
Another odd line. I guess the bye week theory is real. That said, the Cowboys aren't great after the bye, and the last three times they went on the road after the bye they lost. Baltimore is a tough place to play, lest we forget. The Ravens haven't lost a home game since a Week 14 loss to the Steelers back in 2010. Since then, they've won 12 straight, rarely being challenged (only thrice winning by less than a TD, against the Saints in 2010, a flukey comeback against Arizona last year, and the Patriots in Week 3 this year). They are better than Dallas. Their weakness is their defense (which is merely good instead of great) but the Cowboys have huge problems scoring right now. I don't like this pick because it seems too easy, but the line has great value. If I was betting, I would buy a point and bet the Ravens -2.5, but alas, this isn't Vegas.
Cowboys 17 - Ravens 27 (BAL -3.5)
Detroit Lions (1-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-2) (PHI -4.5)
For the first time, I don't think this is a line that is low purely because the Lions are coming off a bye, but a signal from Vegas that they don't believe the Eagles are a good team, and I completely agree. The Lions aren't great either, but they get two weeks to prepare, and they must've been hammered in that time by Schwartz and company for blowing that Vikings game. What worries me about picking the Lions is that Nnamdi could do well against Calvin, but the Lions do have other weapons. I don't like picking them here, but that line for Philly is quite high. Good value here, and I can see the Lions d-line pounding Vick time and time again behind a porous o-line.
Lions 27 - Eagles 24 (DET +4.5)
St. Louis Rams (3-2) @ Miami Dolphins (2-3) (MIA -3.5)
I get it, the Dolphins are a decent team. They will probably be hanging around competing for a Wild Card spot all season. But, so will the Rams. That defense has played well outside of St. Louis (even if they are 0-2 on the road), and they had 10 days to prepare. The Rams have the defense to shut down the resurgent Dolphins offense, but will they score enough points? Who knows. Bradford has been decent, but now he's without his security blanket in Amendola. I really have no idea where to go with this game, but I think the Rams are a better team, and they are used to playing 1PM games since that's when most of their home games are. I don't like the Dolphins at home. That place has no energy, and they often look lethargic.
Rams 20 - Dolphins 17 (STL +3.5)
New England Patriots (3-2) @ Seattle Seahawks (3-2) (NE -3.5)
The Patriots have run for 500 yards over the last two weeks. Of course, one of the teams they played gave up 300 yards last week to San Francisco. The other was Denver, who was carved up by the other good run offense they played (Houston). The Seahawks are a different animal. They are a top-5 rush defense in every major basic category (yards, y/c), and in my choice advanced stat, ranking #3 in Football Outsiders's DVOA for rush defense. Their pass defense is no slouch, with one of the best secondaries and a good pass rush. That stadium will be a tough place. There is little chance the Patriots put up anything close to what they have on the ground the last two weeks. Also, lost in that rushing bonanza has been a regressing defense from a team that started out the year great on D. I can't see the Seahawks putting up a lot of points, but they'll make it competitive. Sadly, Vegas feels this way as well, and the line is lower than most Patriots games. Here's another case where I would buy the point and make it Pats -2.5
Patriots 24 - Seahawks 20 (NE -3.5)
Buffalo Bills (2-3) @ Arizona Cardinals (4-1) (ARZ -4.5)
The Bills finally get a chance on defense. They have the worst defense in the NFL, worse than the Saints. Their hyped D-Line can't stop the run at all. They have a hard time stopping the pass. That said, they get a team with an o-line that has played about as bad as any o-line can play the last two weeks, and a team with no run game that lost its top two runners. That all said, the Cardinals are still just a much better team. Their defense is for real, and while Fitzpatrick is good at getting the ball out quickly in that offense, they have the corners and cover guys to get some picks that Fitz will definitely throw them. While this is a better matchup for the Bills than NE or SF, they are still just not as good and playing on the road in a really tough place to win.
Bills 17 - Cardinals 27 (ARZ -4.5) (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
Minnesota Vikings (4-1) @ Washington Redskins (2-3) (WAS -2)
Obviously, this is a tough game to pick with the Griffin situation up in the air. He's been cleared, but he can easily take one hit and have his symptoms reoccur. (BTW, I love because it is a QB that I haven't heard one person question him being cleared just two days after his concussion). If he does play, that team is dangerous. They can upset Minnesota. Their defense has really stepped up the last two weeks after losing Orakpo and Carriker. Their run game is still humming. The Vikings also might have a harder time with their Special Teams on the road outside. At some point, the Vikings will have a game that resembles what they are: a good but far from great team. Better teams have dropped games to worse teams.
Vikings 23 - Redskins 27 (WAS -2)
New York Giants (3-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (4-1) (SF -5)
This was the hardest game for me to pick. The high line screams taking the Giants. There is great value in picking a team that, with the exception of games in New Orleans, rarely gets beat by a touchdown or more. The Giants pass rush is a sleeping giant right now, and could explode in any given game. It easily could be this one. The 49ers are not as good as they've been the last two weeks because, frankly, no team is ever that good. There is a revenge factor for the 49ers from the NFC Title game, but also the Giants are notorious for showing up in big spots like this. Despite the 49ers explosion last week, I still don't think they have the pass game to take advantage of the Giants suspect secondary. Call it a hunch, and more than that, sticking with a team that has never started worse than 6-2 since 2004, Coughlin and Eli's first seasons in NYG.
Giants 27 - 49ers 24 (NYG +5)
Green Bay Packers (2-3) @ Houston Texans (5-0) (HOU -3.5)
Can I see the Packers at 2-4? Not really, but here we are. It could easily happen. They just aren't nearly as good offensively of last year. Some of that is natural regression from one of the most exact and efficient offenses ever. Some of it is Greg Jennings' injury (even if he plays against Houston, hard to see him at 100%). Some of it is the line playing worse than it has since 2009. Add it all up, and they are 2-3, and two of those losses are uncontroversially deserved. The Texans have zero losses and haven't yet trailed in the 2nd half. This is a tough spot for the Packers, against a team playing its first real huge primetime game at home. No one on the Packers can really block Watt, Barwin, Smith and Co. They have no running game to exploit a merely good rush defense. The Texans on the other side have the run game to exploit the Packers average rush defense, and the pass game to boot, with the o-line to slow Matthews. Just not a good matchup. I don't know who is against Houston.
Packers 20 - Texans 30 (HOU -3.5)
Denver Broncos (2-3) @ San Diego Chargers (3-2) (SD -2)
Even if the Broncos lose, I still think they make the playoffs. That schedule going forward is just so soft. That said, a win here would be huge. They would tie the Chargers at 3-3 with a head-to-head win in San Diego having just finished the toughest opening six games I can ever remember. Manning has actually been fantastic. What hasn't is their third down defense, which has been bad in every game apart from Atlanta and Oakland. The Chargers have been mediocre on 3rd down, and have no real running game. Finally, their o-line isn't looking too good, and neither are their corners. The Chargers 'owning' Manning wasn't really ever about Manning, but about 'owning' Saturday, the running game and the Colts defense. All those things are gone and this isn't a very good Charger team.
Broncos 31 - Chargers 24 (DEN +2) (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
