Another so-so week of picks
Looking Back at Last Week's Picks
Steelers (-5.5) over Titans (WRONG = 0-1)
Browns (+1) over Bengals (CORRECT = 1-1)
Colts (+3) over Jets (WRONG = 1-2)
Buccaneers (-3.5) over Chiefs (CORRECT = 2-2)
Raiders (+8.5) over Falcons (CORRECT = 3-2)
Ravens (-3.5) over Cowboys (WRONG = 3-3)
Lions (+4.5) over Eagles (CORRECT = 4-3)
Rams (+3.5) over Dolphins (CORRECT = 5-3)
Patriots (-3.5) over Seahawks (WRONG = 5-4)
Cardinals (-4.5) over Bills (WRONG = 5-5) (LOCK)
Redskins (-2) over Vikings (CORRECT = 6-5)
Giants (+5) over 49ers (CORRECT = 7-5)
Texans (-3.5) over Packers (WRONG = 7-6)
Broncos (-2) over Chargers (CORRECT = 8-6) (UPSET)
Week 7: 8-6 (LOCK: 0-1; UPSET: 1-0)
Year-to-Date: 52-38-1 (5-1; 6-0)
Best Picks: Closest pick was the Lions beating the Eagles 27-24, when they won 23-20. The other two were the Browns over the Bengals 27-24 (they won 34-24) and the Broncos over the Chargers 31-24 (they won 35-24).
Power Rankings
32.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4 = 65-138)
That bye week couldn't have come at a better time for the Jaguars. People can forget about their sad performance through 5 games, with an inept offense and a mediocre defense. They now get a winnable game and can put themselves in the mix in a messed-up and watered-down AFC, but even that wouldn't make anyone forget that their QB is Blaine Gabbert.
31.) Kansas City Chiefs (1-5 = 104-183)
Tampa Bay is not a great team. In fact, they are not even a good team, yet the Chiefs lost to them by 28 and never looked close to competitive in that game. Brady Quinn is no better than Matt Cassel, and Matt Cassel is not very good. The Chiefs were a really trendy pick in the preseason. I've been wrong about quite a few things this year (Hello, Pittsburgh!!) but not the Chiefs.
30.) Tennessee Titans (2-4 = 114-204)
Nice win. Nice performance by Chris Johnson against something other than the Lions defense. Nice game by Hasselbeck, who is Jeff Garcia, five years later. That said, that game to me said more about Pittsburgh. The Titans are a bad team, but the Steelers aren't much better. That is why the Titans get a deserved, TNF win.
29.) Cleveland Browns (1-5 = 134-163)
Nice win, and that offense continues to play well. Brandon Weeden was horrific in Week 1, and since has been quite manageable as an NFL caliber starting QB. The Browns absolutely deserved that game, and have still yet to truly been blown out. Their schedule gets tough, but this is still about a 4-5 win team in terms of talent.
28.) Carolina Panthers (1-4 = 92-125)
Another team that really needed that bye week. The Panthers need to figure out how to readjust to the fact that the NFL has mostly adjusted to their offense that was so dynamic last year. They still have the pieces (losing Ryan Kalil hurts, though), but this year should be about figuring out what the next evolution of the offense is.
27.) Oakland Raiders (1-4 = 87-148)
Tough loss for a game Raiders team that played the Falcons well. The Raiders came out on a 1PM game and played about as well as they could. Carson Palmer still doesn't have his complement of weapons and McFadden hasn't gotten going yet in earnest, but the team is still playing tough. The schedule does get easier and if they can capitalize the next couple weeks, they can get into the Wild Card picture.
26.) Indianapolis Colts (2-3 = 110-145)
That was a tough loss, but I should have seen it coming. It was a huge letdown to go on the road to a team that doesn't inspire much emotion after that incredible win. Hopefully it is a fluke, because the next four games are still winnable. If they can win them, they'll be in the thick of the Wild Card race, but they have to shore up that run defense. Just awful. That said, #CHUCKSTRONG
25.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3 = 120-101)
Nice performance, but the Chiefs are just awful. If they can have a similar game against the Saints (not exactly a great team either), then I'll take them a little more seriously. I still don't buy that offense or defense against a real team.
24.) Buffalo Bills (3-3 = 137-192)
Hello, Buffalo. Welcome back to the NFL. That was a really nice performance. The Cardinals might not be as good as I thought, but they still fought and clawed their way to a win. The Bills finally showed some mettle defensively, again albeit against an awful offense in almost ever way (btw, want to point out that that previous sentence had 9 straight words start with vowels. That's why I'm not a professional writer).
23.) New York Jets (3-3 = 133-141)
That was the Jets at their best. The defense schemed their way to putting some pressure on Luck and dominating the run game, while the offense grounded and pounded their way to 200 rushing yards of their won. Sanchez had to do little, but when he did throw he was accurate and quick with his decisions. If this Jets team plays the rest of the season, they can, and I know how crazy this sounds, make the playoffs.
22.) New Orleans Saints (1-4 = 141-154)
The Saints better win in Tampa this week because that schedule is not easy going forward with Denver, Atlanta (2), San Fran and the Giants in the next eight weeks. The Saints still have problems. They still have to fix that bad defense. There were signs of improvement in the pass rush, but their coverage is still just awful.
21.) Cincinnati Bengals (3-3 = 149-163)
Another tough loss. This team, if they took care of business, could have been 5-1. Seriously. They blew their chance to do what they did last year. Actually, luckily for them the AFC is a mess so they are still in it. That offense is dynamic, but they turn over the ball too much and their run game needs to improve.
20.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-3 = 103-125)
The Eagles have, how you say, fallen back to earth, haven't they. That was just a colossal collapse. People will talk more about New England, but the Eagles blew a 10 point lead with 5 minutes to go. Vick was bad, but so was Stafford. The real key to the game was Andy Reid going away from the run for the umpteenth time in his tenure.
19.) Miami Dolphins (3-3 = 120-117)
Another win for the Dolphins, but how exactly did they win. I haven't watched the game, but they were outgained 440-190. They only won the turnover battle by 1. I see that Greg the Leg missed three field goals, but still, the Dolphins were really lucky to finish that off with a win. I like this team, and I like Tannehill, but I don't think they can seriously make the playoffs.
18.) Pittsburgh Steelers (2-3 = 116-115)
It may be time to just realize that the Steelers aren't that good, and won't be for 2012. Now, I've seen teams start out 2-3 or 3-3 before and still have a great season (Chargers 2009) and with the injuries in Baltimore it certainly could happen, but the Steelers can't get healthy on defense losing Troy again and now LaMarr is gimpy. That offense is fine, but the defense is a problem for the first time since 2002.
17.) Dallas Cowboys (2-3 = 94-119)
Tough loss for a game Cowboys team that finally converted yards into points. They still are one of the lowest-scoring teams in the NFL, but that offense played quite well. Dez Bryant still has problems with drops, but I think a bigger issue is the Cowboys defense is just not that good. They aren't good enough to hide an inconsistent offense.
16.) Washington Redskins (3-3 = 178-173)
Man, RGIII is exciting. I still like Luck more long term, because RGIII could have Cam-like issues in Year 2, but he really makes that offense go. But so does Alfred Morris, who continues to play really well. The real surprise to me, though, was the Redskins defense which continues to play splendid defense in the red zone. The NFC is a lot tougher than the AFC, but a Wild-Card spot is definitely possible.
15.) Detroit Lions (2-3 = 126-137)
The Lions could easily be 4-1 had they not have suffered five crazy TDs against them in two close losses to the Titans and Vikings, but really, they haven't played 4-1 good. Matt Stafford has been so erratic, and that defense is still not capable of stopping anyone if they don't get consistent pressure. The Lions overall still have a shot at the playoffs if they can win against the Pack directly, but Stafford has to get better.
14.) St. Louis Rams (3-3 = 110-111)
I still like the Rams, and racking up 440 yards against a good defense makes me like them even more. Sure, they somehow just scored 14 points, but that was good offensive production for a QB that hasn't had much help from his receivers. The Rams defense is still very good. They have two massive games coming up with the Packers and Patriots coming to town. I doubt they win either, but I think they show up for both.
13.) San Diego Chargers (3-3 = 148-137)
That is just an awful loss, obviously, and what makes it worse is the circumstances that surrounded that game. Despite not really being a very good team, the Chargers could have gone up two games in the division over the Broncos with a head-to-head win. Instead, they are tied, with a head-to-head loss and a trip to Denver coming later in the year. Philip Rivers continues to throw way, way too many picks. He's not getting help from his receivers, but that was the low point of his career, truthfully.
12.) Arizona Cardinals (4-2 = 110-97)
I might start eating crow, but I still think the Cardinals are a good team. They were due to lose a close game that either team could have won for once. They had won too many of those over the years. The Cardinals are still a good team. Their defense is still good. Their passing game can still move the ball, but the Cardinals need to get back to efficient, turnover-free football.
11.) Minnesota Vikings (4-2 = 146-117)
That was a return to reality for a defense that has been playing really well so far. The Vikings aren't a talent-laden team, but they still have a good scheme and mostly play it really well. Christian Ponder's limitations showed as they were forced into three early short field goals in red-zone situations. I still like them going forward, but they can't drop winnable games with four games to come with the Bears and Packers.
10.) Seattle Seahawks (4-2 = 110-93)
That was an impressive performance on both fronts. Sure, the Patriots had 480 yards of offense, but only had 5.7 yards per play. The Seahawks bottled up the team that has reinvented how to run the football, while locking down Gronk (who seems to be the player defenses have keyed on so far over Welker). The didn't get much pressure on Brady, but stiffened in the red zone. The could have had more picks as well. They limited the Patriots to 23 points and deserved to. That said, Russell Wilson will go back to playing real NFL defenses next week.
8.) Denver Broncos (3-3 = 170-138)
It was heavily reported that Manning tied Marino's record for most Game Winning Drives. Of course, more importantly he broke Marino's record with his 37th 4th Quarter Comeback, and it was the biggest of his career. Manning was really fine in the first half (the pick was definitely not his fault), and became vintage Peytao in the 2nd half. That defense finally woke up, as did the Broncos inability to finally recover fumbles (through 5.5 games, they had recovered 2 of 16). Good win for a team that can now enter the bye leading their division with a tissue soft schedule ahead.
9.) New England Patriots (3-3 = 188-137)
Tough loss. Sure, they could easily be 6-0 if we change some things, but I see a lot of what I saw from the 2009 Patriots from this team. When they are on, they are unstoppable (that team won 59-0 against the Titans). When they aren't, they can't close games they start out well. That was the issue in the 2009 Patriots losses to the Jets, Broncos and Dolphins, and even the Colts. Their 4-minute offense has never been all that good, but now it is more apparent because the defense is unable to cover for it.
7.) Green Bay Packers (3-3 = 154-135)
That was an awesome performance by Rodgers. He was inhuman, but for once he really got a lot of help from his receivers. That second James Jones TD was just a great catch from a guy that drops the ball a lot. The defense, though, continued to look impressive in 2012. It still isn't close to the level from 2010 when they won the Super Bowl but unlike the Patriots who haven't gotten too much better from their abhorrent 2011 numbers, the Packers have.
6.) San Francisco 49ers (4-2 = 152-94)
Tough loss, as for the first time the 49ers under Harbaugh just got beat up. Actually, the Ravens did it to them last year on Thanksgiving as well, but there the defense played better. Here, the 49ers couldn't pressure Eli Manning too much, letting him have all day. More importantly, they let Ahmad Bradshaw, of all people, run for 116 yards. That was a sad performance at home.
5.) Baltimore Ravens (5-1 = 161-118)
Another close win where the Ravens defense doesn't play too well, but still, the Ravens won and are now 5-1, two games better than any AFC team outside of Houston. The Ravens, though, are in flux because of injuries. Losing Lewis might not hurt too much (they played well without him in 2011 and he wasn't playing that good anyway) but losing Lardarius Webb is huge. The Ravens have schemed around secondary problems in the past, but unless Suggs comes back in full force, that will be more difficult.
4.) New York Giants (4-2 = 178-114)
The Giants, when they want to, are the best team in the NFL. I am trying to come up with a comparable team in another sport that has done what the 2007-2012 GIants have done, where they can lose to bad teams, but will dominate good teams. The closest I came up with is the St. Louis Cardinals, as they have become the MLB's Giants in the playoffs. But really, what they do is unprecedented, and a lot of fun to watch.
3.) Houston Texans (5-1 = 173-115)
Hard to really fault them. Every team has a bad game. They just had their at home in prime-time. In the grand scheme of things, no team could've stopped the Packers the way they were playing last night, especially Rodgers. What is more worrying is the run game still hasn't really gotten going in 2012, and Foster is being really overrused.
2.) Atlanta Falcons (6-0 = 171-113)
Another close game, but another win. So far, the Falcons have played three home games, where they are usually dominant, and have won each in close, tight fashion. They need to lay the hammer down every now and then. The Falcons still have the schedule to get that #1 seed, but the way they've slept through home games, maybe they might do better going away in January.
1.) Chicago Bears (4-1 = 149-71)
Other than having the Packers wake up, the Bears had everything go for them. The Vikings lost. The 49ers lost. The Falcons still won, but they don't play them anyway. The Bears are the most dominant team through 6 games. Now, the co-most dominant teams prior to last week just lost 68-27, so that might not mean much, but the Bears have four dominant wins to pair with a strange, TNF induced loss.
Ranking the Upcoming Week's Games
13.) Tennessee Titans (2-4) @ Buffalo Bills (3-3)
12.) Cleveland Browns (1-5) @ Indianapolis Colts (2-3)
11.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4) @ Oakland Raiders (1-4)
Bad teams on parade!!! These are six teams in that mess of an AFC where every team other than Cleveland and Jacksonville (and probably Oakland) is alive for that potential #6 seed. The Bills look to continue to turn around, and the Colts could bounce back with a win. The Raiders deserve to be better than 1-4, and they should be after this week.
10.) Green Bay Packers (3-3) @ St. Louis Rams (3-3)
9.) New Orleans Saints (1-4) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3)
The Packers looked absolutely dominant against a good defense yesterday. Well, they get a very good defense this weekend in another dome. The Saints go to a place where they haven't always had that much success (witness what happened last year n TB). The Packers and Saints should fly, but chances are one gets tested heavily.
8.) Dallas Cowboys (2-3) @ Carolina Panthers (1-4)
This has to be the most fun matchup of two sub-.500 teams this year. Both teams have explosive offenses that have been unable to put together consistent games. The Panthers desperately need a win, but the Cowboys do as well as they are looking up at everyone in the NFC East with five division games still to play.
7.) Arizona Cardinals (4-2) @ Minnesota Vikings (4-2)
Yes, both teams are 4-2 and both teams have been surprising, but this could be something of an elimination game. Neither team is going to fall too far behind the pack, but they are both coming off bad losses, and in the Cardinals case, they haven't had a great game since Week 3. It's time for them to show up again.
6.) New York Jets (3-3) @ New England Patriots (3-3)
5.) Detroit Lions (2-3) @ Chicago Bears (4-1)4.) Pittsburgh Steelers (2-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (3-3)
Three divisional games, two of them of the night variety, get the next billing. Odd that five of the six teams are .500 or worse (while the Bears are the most dominant team in the NFL through six weeks). The Jets have a real chance to put the 34-0 laugher behind them. If they can go into Foxboro and give the Patriots another loss, then, well, prepare for the world to end in December. The Lions are a fiesty 2-3 and could give the Bears problems. The other game is another separation game in the tight AFC Wild Card race.
3.) Washington Redskins (3-3) @ New York Giants (4-2)
This divisional game is a step-up from those three (as is the next one), and features the most exciting offense in the NFL against a defense that is starting to hum. The Giants were dominant against the 49ers. They need to be motivated for this game. They have to pretend no one is once again giving them any respect. If they do that, they'll be fine. Two notes to consider, the Redskins swept the Giants last year, and the Giants are 0-2 in division so far.
2.) Seattle Seahawks (4-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (4-2)
Another division game, and in all honesty, the TNF slate is turning out much better than it looked. The Seahawks are the team with all the momentum, but they have to leave their friendly confines, and the 49ers are at home on Thursday. They'll be stark-raving mad after being de-pantsed against the Giants. I can see a bounce back for them and a letdown for the Seahawks.
1.) Baltimore Ravens (5-1) @ Houston Texans (5-1)
Yeah, this game looked a lot bigger a week ago, before the Texans fell victim to Aaron Rodgers at his best, and before the Ravens lost Lardarius Webb and Ray Lewis. That said, it still does feature the two best teams in the AFC, and the only AFC teams with fewer than three losses (how incredibly pathetic is that for the rest of the AFC?). The winner gets a one game and head-to-head lead on the other, and a two game lead on everyone else. Scary.
Playoff Projections
AFC
1.) Houston Texans (13-3)
2.) Baltimore Ravens (12-4)
3.) Denver Broncos (12-4)
4.) New England Patriots (11-5)
5.) San Diego Chargers (10-6)
6.) Who Knows and Who Cares, because New England will Kill Them (9-7)
NFC
1.) Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
2.) Chicago Bears (13-3)
3.) New York Giants (12-4)
4.) San Francisco 49ers (12-4) //Quick tangent, if this happens, that is the strongest set of division winners in the NFC since realignment.
5.) Green Bay Packers (11-5)
6.) Minnesota Vikings (10-6)
Looking Back at Last Week's Picks
Steelers (-5.5) over Titans (WRONG = 0-1)
Browns (+1) over Bengals (CORRECT = 1-1)
Colts (+3) over Jets (WRONG = 1-2)
Buccaneers (-3.5) over Chiefs (CORRECT = 2-2)
Raiders (+8.5) over Falcons (CORRECT = 3-2)
Ravens (-3.5) over Cowboys (WRONG = 3-3)
Lions (+4.5) over Eagles (CORRECT = 4-3)
Rams (+3.5) over Dolphins (CORRECT = 5-3)
Patriots (-3.5) over Seahawks (WRONG = 5-4)
Cardinals (-4.5) over Bills (WRONG = 5-5) (LOCK)
Redskins (-2) over Vikings (CORRECT = 6-5)
Giants (+5) over 49ers (CORRECT = 7-5)
Texans (-3.5) over Packers (WRONG = 7-6)
Broncos (-2) over Chargers (CORRECT = 8-6) (UPSET)
Week 7: 8-6 (LOCK: 0-1; UPSET: 1-0)
Year-to-Date: 52-38-1 (5-1; 6-0)
Best Picks: Closest pick was the Lions beating the Eagles 27-24, when they won 23-20. The other two were the Browns over the Bengals 27-24 (they won 34-24) and the Broncos over the Chargers 31-24 (they won 35-24).
Power Rankings
32.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4 = 65-138)
That bye week couldn't have come at a better time for the Jaguars. People can forget about their sad performance through 5 games, with an inept offense and a mediocre defense. They now get a winnable game and can put themselves in the mix in a messed-up and watered-down AFC, but even that wouldn't make anyone forget that their QB is Blaine Gabbert.
31.) Kansas City Chiefs (1-5 = 104-183)
Tampa Bay is not a great team. In fact, they are not even a good team, yet the Chiefs lost to them by 28 and never looked close to competitive in that game. Brady Quinn is no better than Matt Cassel, and Matt Cassel is not very good. The Chiefs were a really trendy pick in the preseason. I've been wrong about quite a few things this year (Hello, Pittsburgh!!) but not the Chiefs.
30.) Tennessee Titans (2-4 = 114-204)
Nice win. Nice performance by Chris Johnson against something other than the Lions defense. Nice game by Hasselbeck, who is Jeff Garcia, five years later. That said, that game to me said more about Pittsburgh. The Titans are a bad team, but the Steelers aren't much better. That is why the Titans get a deserved, TNF win.
29.) Cleveland Browns (1-5 = 134-163)
Nice win, and that offense continues to play well. Brandon Weeden was horrific in Week 1, and since has been quite manageable as an NFL caliber starting QB. The Browns absolutely deserved that game, and have still yet to truly been blown out. Their schedule gets tough, but this is still about a 4-5 win team in terms of talent.
28.) Carolina Panthers (1-4 = 92-125)
Another team that really needed that bye week. The Panthers need to figure out how to readjust to the fact that the NFL has mostly adjusted to their offense that was so dynamic last year. They still have the pieces (losing Ryan Kalil hurts, though), but this year should be about figuring out what the next evolution of the offense is.
27.) Oakland Raiders (1-4 = 87-148)
Tough loss for a game Raiders team that played the Falcons well. The Raiders came out on a 1PM game and played about as well as they could. Carson Palmer still doesn't have his complement of weapons and McFadden hasn't gotten going yet in earnest, but the team is still playing tough. The schedule does get easier and if they can capitalize the next couple weeks, they can get into the Wild Card picture.
26.) Indianapolis Colts (2-3 = 110-145)
That was a tough loss, but I should have seen it coming. It was a huge letdown to go on the road to a team that doesn't inspire much emotion after that incredible win. Hopefully it is a fluke, because the next four games are still winnable. If they can win them, they'll be in the thick of the Wild Card race, but they have to shore up that run defense. Just awful. That said, #CHUCKSTRONG
25.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3 = 120-101)
Nice performance, but the Chiefs are just awful. If they can have a similar game against the Saints (not exactly a great team either), then I'll take them a little more seriously. I still don't buy that offense or defense against a real team.
24.) Buffalo Bills (3-3 = 137-192)
Hello, Buffalo. Welcome back to the NFL. That was a really nice performance. The Cardinals might not be as good as I thought, but they still fought and clawed their way to a win. The Bills finally showed some mettle defensively, again albeit against an awful offense in almost ever way (btw, want to point out that that previous sentence had 9 straight words start with vowels. That's why I'm not a professional writer).
23.) New York Jets (3-3 = 133-141)
That was the Jets at their best. The defense schemed their way to putting some pressure on Luck and dominating the run game, while the offense grounded and pounded their way to 200 rushing yards of their won. Sanchez had to do little, but when he did throw he was accurate and quick with his decisions. If this Jets team plays the rest of the season, they can, and I know how crazy this sounds, make the playoffs.
22.) New Orleans Saints (1-4 = 141-154)
The Saints better win in Tampa this week because that schedule is not easy going forward with Denver, Atlanta (2), San Fran and the Giants in the next eight weeks. The Saints still have problems. They still have to fix that bad defense. There were signs of improvement in the pass rush, but their coverage is still just awful.
21.) Cincinnati Bengals (3-3 = 149-163)
Another tough loss. This team, if they took care of business, could have been 5-1. Seriously. They blew their chance to do what they did last year. Actually, luckily for them the AFC is a mess so they are still in it. That offense is dynamic, but they turn over the ball too much and their run game needs to improve.
20.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-3 = 103-125)
The Eagles have, how you say, fallen back to earth, haven't they. That was just a colossal collapse. People will talk more about New England, but the Eagles blew a 10 point lead with 5 minutes to go. Vick was bad, but so was Stafford. The real key to the game was Andy Reid going away from the run for the umpteenth time in his tenure.
19.) Miami Dolphins (3-3 = 120-117)
Another win for the Dolphins, but how exactly did they win. I haven't watched the game, but they were outgained 440-190. They only won the turnover battle by 1. I see that Greg the Leg missed three field goals, but still, the Dolphins were really lucky to finish that off with a win. I like this team, and I like Tannehill, but I don't think they can seriously make the playoffs.
18.) Pittsburgh Steelers (2-3 = 116-115)
It may be time to just realize that the Steelers aren't that good, and won't be for 2012. Now, I've seen teams start out 2-3 or 3-3 before and still have a great season (Chargers 2009) and with the injuries in Baltimore it certainly could happen, but the Steelers can't get healthy on defense losing Troy again and now LaMarr is gimpy. That offense is fine, but the defense is a problem for the first time since 2002.
17.) Dallas Cowboys (2-3 = 94-119)
Tough loss for a game Cowboys team that finally converted yards into points. They still are one of the lowest-scoring teams in the NFL, but that offense played quite well. Dez Bryant still has problems with drops, but I think a bigger issue is the Cowboys defense is just not that good. They aren't good enough to hide an inconsistent offense.
16.) Washington Redskins (3-3 = 178-173)
Man, RGIII is exciting. I still like Luck more long term, because RGIII could have Cam-like issues in Year 2, but he really makes that offense go. But so does Alfred Morris, who continues to play really well. The real surprise to me, though, was the Redskins defense which continues to play splendid defense in the red zone. The NFC is a lot tougher than the AFC, but a Wild-Card spot is definitely possible.
15.) Detroit Lions (2-3 = 126-137)
The Lions could easily be 4-1 had they not have suffered five crazy TDs against them in two close losses to the Titans and Vikings, but really, they haven't played 4-1 good. Matt Stafford has been so erratic, and that defense is still not capable of stopping anyone if they don't get consistent pressure. The Lions overall still have a shot at the playoffs if they can win against the Pack directly, but Stafford has to get better.
14.) St. Louis Rams (3-3 = 110-111)
I still like the Rams, and racking up 440 yards against a good defense makes me like them even more. Sure, they somehow just scored 14 points, but that was good offensive production for a QB that hasn't had much help from his receivers. The Rams defense is still very good. They have two massive games coming up with the Packers and Patriots coming to town. I doubt they win either, but I think they show up for both.
13.) San Diego Chargers (3-3 = 148-137)
That is just an awful loss, obviously, and what makes it worse is the circumstances that surrounded that game. Despite not really being a very good team, the Chargers could have gone up two games in the division over the Broncos with a head-to-head win. Instead, they are tied, with a head-to-head loss and a trip to Denver coming later in the year. Philip Rivers continues to throw way, way too many picks. He's not getting help from his receivers, but that was the low point of his career, truthfully.
12.) Arizona Cardinals (4-2 = 110-97)
I might start eating crow, but I still think the Cardinals are a good team. They were due to lose a close game that either team could have won for once. They had won too many of those over the years. The Cardinals are still a good team. Their defense is still good. Their passing game can still move the ball, but the Cardinals need to get back to efficient, turnover-free football.
11.) Minnesota Vikings (4-2 = 146-117)
That was a return to reality for a defense that has been playing really well so far. The Vikings aren't a talent-laden team, but they still have a good scheme and mostly play it really well. Christian Ponder's limitations showed as they were forced into three early short field goals in red-zone situations. I still like them going forward, but they can't drop winnable games with four games to come with the Bears and Packers.
10.) Seattle Seahawks (4-2 = 110-93)
That was an impressive performance on both fronts. Sure, the Patriots had 480 yards of offense, but only had 5.7 yards per play. The Seahawks bottled up the team that has reinvented how to run the football, while locking down Gronk (who seems to be the player defenses have keyed on so far over Welker). The didn't get much pressure on Brady, but stiffened in the red zone. The could have had more picks as well. They limited the Patriots to 23 points and deserved to. That said, Russell Wilson will go back to playing real NFL defenses next week.
8.) Denver Broncos (3-3 = 170-138)
It was heavily reported that Manning tied Marino's record for most Game Winning Drives. Of course, more importantly he broke Marino's record with his 37th 4th Quarter Comeback, and it was the biggest of his career. Manning was really fine in the first half (the pick was definitely not his fault), and became vintage Peytao in the 2nd half. That defense finally woke up, as did the Broncos inability to finally recover fumbles (through 5.5 games, they had recovered 2 of 16). Good win for a team that can now enter the bye leading their division with a tissue soft schedule ahead.
9.) New England Patriots (3-3 = 188-137)
Tough loss. Sure, they could easily be 6-0 if we change some things, but I see a lot of what I saw from the 2009 Patriots from this team. When they are on, they are unstoppable (that team won 59-0 against the Titans). When they aren't, they can't close games they start out well. That was the issue in the 2009 Patriots losses to the Jets, Broncos and Dolphins, and even the Colts. Their 4-minute offense has never been all that good, but now it is more apparent because the defense is unable to cover for it.
7.) Green Bay Packers (3-3 = 154-135)
That was an awesome performance by Rodgers. He was inhuman, but for once he really got a lot of help from his receivers. That second James Jones TD was just a great catch from a guy that drops the ball a lot. The defense, though, continued to look impressive in 2012. It still isn't close to the level from 2010 when they won the Super Bowl but unlike the Patriots who haven't gotten too much better from their abhorrent 2011 numbers, the Packers have.
6.) San Francisco 49ers (4-2 = 152-94)
Tough loss, as for the first time the 49ers under Harbaugh just got beat up. Actually, the Ravens did it to them last year on Thanksgiving as well, but there the defense played better. Here, the 49ers couldn't pressure Eli Manning too much, letting him have all day. More importantly, they let Ahmad Bradshaw, of all people, run for 116 yards. That was a sad performance at home.
5.) Baltimore Ravens (5-1 = 161-118)
Another close win where the Ravens defense doesn't play too well, but still, the Ravens won and are now 5-1, two games better than any AFC team outside of Houston. The Ravens, though, are in flux because of injuries. Losing Lewis might not hurt too much (they played well without him in 2011 and he wasn't playing that good anyway) but losing Lardarius Webb is huge. The Ravens have schemed around secondary problems in the past, but unless Suggs comes back in full force, that will be more difficult.
4.) New York Giants (4-2 = 178-114)
The Giants, when they want to, are the best team in the NFL. I am trying to come up with a comparable team in another sport that has done what the 2007-2012 GIants have done, where they can lose to bad teams, but will dominate good teams. The closest I came up with is the St. Louis Cardinals, as they have become the MLB's Giants in the playoffs. But really, what they do is unprecedented, and a lot of fun to watch.
3.) Houston Texans (5-1 = 173-115)
Hard to really fault them. Every team has a bad game. They just had their at home in prime-time. In the grand scheme of things, no team could've stopped the Packers the way they were playing last night, especially Rodgers. What is more worrying is the run game still hasn't really gotten going in 2012, and Foster is being really overrused.
2.) Atlanta Falcons (6-0 = 171-113)
Another close game, but another win. So far, the Falcons have played three home games, where they are usually dominant, and have won each in close, tight fashion. They need to lay the hammer down every now and then. The Falcons still have the schedule to get that #1 seed, but the way they've slept through home games, maybe they might do better going away in January.
1.) Chicago Bears (4-1 = 149-71)
Other than having the Packers wake up, the Bears had everything go for them. The Vikings lost. The 49ers lost. The Falcons still won, but they don't play them anyway. The Bears are the most dominant team through 6 games. Now, the co-most dominant teams prior to last week just lost 68-27, so that might not mean much, but the Bears have four dominant wins to pair with a strange, TNF induced loss.
Ranking the Upcoming Week's Games
13.) Tennessee Titans (2-4) @ Buffalo Bills (3-3)
12.) Cleveland Browns (1-5) @ Indianapolis Colts (2-3)
11.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4) @ Oakland Raiders (1-4)
Bad teams on parade!!! These are six teams in that mess of an AFC where every team other than Cleveland and Jacksonville (and probably Oakland) is alive for that potential #6 seed. The Bills look to continue to turn around, and the Colts could bounce back with a win. The Raiders deserve to be better than 1-4, and they should be after this week.
10.) Green Bay Packers (3-3) @ St. Louis Rams (3-3)
9.) New Orleans Saints (1-4) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3)
The Packers looked absolutely dominant against a good defense yesterday. Well, they get a very good defense this weekend in another dome. The Saints go to a place where they haven't always had that much success (witness what happened last year n TB). The Packers and Saints should fly, but chances are one gets tested heavily.
8.) Dallas Cowboys (2-3) @ Carolina Panthers (1-4)
This has to be the most fun matchup of two sub-.500 teams this year. Both teams have explosive offenses that have been unable to put together consistent games. The Panthers desperately need a win, but the Cowboys do as well as they are looking up at everyone in the NFC East with five division games still to play.
7.) Arizona Cardinals (4-2) @ Minnesota Vikings (4-2)
Yes, both teams are 4-2 and both teams have been surprising, but this could be something of an elimination game. Neither team is going to fall too far behind the pack, but they are both coming off bad losses, and in the Cardinals case, they haven't had a great game since Week 3. It's time for them to show up again.
6.) New York Jets (3-3) @ New England Patriots (3-3)
5.) Detroit Lions (2-3) @ Chicago Bears (4-1)4.) Pittsburgh Steelers (2-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (3-3)
Three divisional games, two of them of the night variety, get the next billing. Odd that five of the six teams are .500 or worse (while the Bears are the most dominant team in the NFL through six weeks). The Jets have a real chance to put the 34-0 laugher behind them. If they can go into Foxboro and give the Patriots another loss, then, well, prepare for the world to end in December. The Lions are a fiesty 2-3 and could give the Bears problems. The other game is another separation game in the tight AFC Wild Card race.
3.) Washington Redskins (3-3) @ New York Giants (4-2)
This divisional game is a step-up from those three (as is the next one), and features the most exciting offense in the NFL against a defense that is starting to hum. The Giants were dominant against the 49ers. They need to be motivated for this game. They have to pretend no one is once again giving them any respect. If they do that, they'll be fine. Two notes to consider, the Redskins swept the Giants last year, and the Giants are 0-2 in division so far.
2.) Seattle Seahawks (4-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (4-2)
Another division game, and in all honesty, the TNF slate is turning out much better than it looked. The Seahawks are the team with all the momentum, but they have to leave their friendly confines, and the 49ers are at home on Thursday. They'll be stark-raving mad after being de-pantsed against the Giants. I can see a bounce back for them and a letdown for the Seahawks.
1.) Baltimore Ravens (5-1) @ Houston Texans (5-1)
Yeah, this game looked a lot bigger a week ago, before the Texans fell victim to Aaron Rodgers at his best, and before the Ravens lost Lardarius Webb and Ray Lewis. That said, it still does feature the two best teams in the AFC, and the only AFC teams with fewer than three losses (how incredibly pathetic is that for the rest of the AFC?). The winner gets a one game and head-to-head lead on the other, and a two game lead on everyone else. Scary.
Playoff Projections
AFC
1.) Houston Texans (13-3)
2.) Baltimore Ravens (12-4)
3.) Denver Broncos (12-4)
4.) New England Patriots (11-5)
5.) San Diego Chargers (10-6)
6.) Who Knows and Who Cares, because New England will Kill Them (9-7)
NFC
1.) Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
2.) Chicago Bears (13-3)
3.) New York Giants (12-4)
4.) San Francisco 49ers (12-4) //Quick tangent, if this happens, that is the strongest set of division winners in the NFC since realignment.
5.) Green Bay Packers (11-5)
6.) Minnesota Vikings (10-6)
