No time to speak, too much picking to do.
Last Week: 10-4
Season-to-Date: 62-40-2 (60.6%) (That's right, bitches, I'm over 60% for the year now, but by one game. Gotta keep making salad with these picks).
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)
This line seems a little strange, since the Chiefs just blew out a team at home, and the Bills are 0-6. Of course, the Bills have done a good job of playing close on the road, evidenced by their eight point loss in New England, and overtime loss in Baltimore, which are comparable teams with the Chiefs. The Bills offense has improved under the guidance of Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Lee Evans finally decided to strangle his QBs until they throw at him. Their defense is still a mess, which is a big problem, since the Bills are the worst team against the run in the league, and the Chiefs are the best running team in the league. This spells a major problem. I feel like this game will turn out like the Jaguars/Chiefs game, which was close for a while, but the Chiefs eventually took over and covered. The Bills might keep it close for a while, but the Chiefs are a better team, at home. There is a slight chance that they overlook the Bills, and focus at their game in Oakland next week, but I don't think a Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis coached team (they are the real coaches, not Todd Haley) will overlook any team. Not really the "Patriot Way."
Bills 17 Chiefs 31 (KC)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)
For one week at least, the Cowboys will rally behind Jon Kitna. Backup QBs can win a couple games. Of course, if the rest of the team was motivated, or they had a solid foundation of leaders outside of the QB, they could win quite a few games (The Cassel' Patriots are a prime example), but the Cowboys aren't that team. They can be for one week. Plus, I really don't see the Cowboys approaching 0-4 at home. The real question will be if the Cowboys can cover or not? The Jaguars are horrific against the pass, giving up 8.1 yards per attempt. That is, how you say, nightmarish. The Cowboys are having a tough time running the ball this season, but don't worry, since the Jaguars can't really stop that either. It really doesn't matter who the Jaguars start at QB. If the Cowboys can't cover this, then Wade should honestly just be escorted of the premises.
Jaguars 14 Cowboys 28 (DAL)
Carolina Panthers @ St. Louis Rams (-3)
The Rams really are not that much better than the Panthers with Matt Moore starting and Steve Smith healthy. The Rams, however, are quite good at home, going 3-1, beating the Redskins, Seahawks and Chargers all at home (two +.500 teams as well as the Chargers - who if not for earning the title "the dumbest fucking team in the history of the NFL" would be like 5-2 or 6-1). The Rams aren't particularly good at any facet of defense, but their pass defense is better than their rush defense, which probably hurts them in this game, as the Panthers should have success pounding the rock. As for those Panthers, their defense should be able to bottle up Sam Bradford and his cast of randoms pretty well. I fear that they will not be able to have a good answer for Steven Jackson, who should play. I like the Panthers here, but the Rams at home have been solid all year. Call it a hunch, but I think I will for one game, go against my head, and take the Panthers.
Panthers 23 Rams 20 (CAR)
Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals (-.5)
I am truly astonished that the Bengals are favored, given all the shit that has been piled on this team. This is the type of game the Bengals win, just to get some people back on their bandwagon, until they go out and lose to the Browns, again. The Bengals have some advantageous matchups in this game. The Dolphins have struggled against the pass since the bye, which might not bode well against Palmer, who looked a lot better last week. The Bengals, on the other hand, have been better at stopping the run of late, which is the key. When Henne is forced to put the team in the back, he can't quite meet the pressure, yet. If the Dolphins run game struggles, they will lose. The Bengals are due for another win. They really play up or down to their competition, and this is a game I think they will get up for.
Dolphins 17 Bengals 23 (CIN)
Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions (-2.5)
I know Stafford is back, but really? The Lions are really favored against a team that is 4-3, and has beaten four quality teams this year? This is a huge surprise. The Redskins have been awful against the pass, but the stat that truly matters, y/a, they have been better than awful, as they are only below average. What helps them is the fact that the Lions run defense is bad in every way, which should work great for Ryan Torain, who has put up two straight 100 yard games. What gives me caution is the fact that the Redskins have already shown they can't be trusted on the road, looking flaccid in St. Louis, and this is the second of two road games, and the first one was quite physical. What I do like is the fact that the Redskins pass rush is looking better in each game, while the Lions pass protection is getting worse. I love the Redskins here.
Redskins 27 Lions 20 (WAS)
Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) [in London]
Will we ever send a good game to London. They got a nice one in 2008, with the Chargers and Saints, but neither team was that good at the time of the game. This one is probably the worst one yet. The 49ers are starting Troy Smith, and the Broncos just had the worst loss in franchise history, and now have to travel eight time zones. The Broncos are not a very good team. The 49ers are worse in a lot of ways, but they have the pass defense to at least control Kyle Orton. The niners rush defense is about average, but that wouldn't matter since the Broncos couldn't run the ball against Boise St. at this point. I would like to think the Broncos would be extra motivated to show up after that type of loss, but if they were effected by such types of motivation, they wouldn't have lost that type of game in the first place. That was truly embarrassing. The 49ers are still a team good enough to beat the Broncos on a neutral field, Troy Smith be damned. The Broncos can't stop the run at all, and Frank Gore will have a field day.
Broncos 23 49ers 27 (SF)
Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets (-6)
The Packers should be getting Al Harris and Ryan Pickett back. Al Harris is old, and probably won't be able to cover anyone that well. On the other hand, getting Pickett back is huge, as he adds a ton of size to the Packers front and should help stop LT and Shonn Greene. The Packers are a good team, off of a huge win, and should be inspired to play well. They generally are a good road team as well. Aaron Rodgers is getting good protection, and I can't imagine that he will have as bad miscommunication problems with his receivers two weeks in a row. As for the Jets, to me, the key is Sanchez. The Packers pass defense has been good, and has a tendency to force turnovers. Clay Matthews probably won't be his usual beast self, with D'Brickshaw being able to slow him down, but the Jets' offense hasn't fully clicked in any game since the Buffalo game. Being off of a bye helps, but I am always wary of teams that go into byes with long winning streaks like the Jets. I think the Jets win this game, but not by that much. That line is awfully high.
Packers 20 Jets 23 (NYJ)
Tennessee Titans @ San Diego Chargers (-3)
The Chargers will still be missing Malcolm Floyd, but Legedu Nanneee should be back, and Antonio Gates should be closer to 100%. The Titans pass defense has been great, but if you take out the Oakland game, and the Steelers game (Dennis Dixon, Chaz Batch), the numbers aren't other-worldly. For the Chargers, it comes down to turnovers, again. At some point, they have to stop these ridiculous turnovers. Even for a team as scatter-brained as the Chargers, this is too much. Their propensity to fumble has to regress to the mean at some point, right? I think it will be this week. The Titans did not play well in the game in New York against the Giants, but capitalized on Giants' turnovers, which is a good sign for them, since the Chargers have even more maddening turnovers. Everything I have said points to a Chargers loss, as they are a playing a team that capitalizes on turnovers better than any other team in the league. However, this matchup has never worked for the Titans. The Titans have lost their last four games to the Chargers, and most of them haven't been close (their last two meetings were a 17-6 Chargers win in the 2007 playoffs, and then there was a Chargers 42-17 win in Tennessee last year). The Chargers just match up really, really well with the Titans. The Chargers, finally, get a much needed win over a good team.
Titans 14 Chargers 24 (SD)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Arizona Cardinals (-3)
This is a really tough game to pick. The Cardinals don't deserve to be favored over anyone, but their defense usually steps it up a notch when they play at home. The Buccaneers have done a great job of avoiding turnovers, which is what the Cardinals make their living off of. I really don't feel like this game deserves much time. The Buccaneers are pretty much the 2010 version of the 2008 Miami Dolphins, which is not necessarily a bad thing. They win these close games by hanging around and stealing them in the end. The Cardinals QB, whoever it will be, will get time, since the Bucs can't get a pass rush on anyone, but again, that might not necessarily be a bad thing, given the fact that Max Hall and Derek Anderson are not very accurate and struggle with no rush anyway. I think the Bucs are the better team, and they win the game.
Buccaneers 27 Cardinals 20 (TB)
Seattle Seahawks @ Oakland Raiders (-3)
I always get nervous when the Raiders are favorites. They usually don't do so well with that tag. Of course, this Raiders team is better than every Raiders team since 2005 (that team actually wasn't all that bad, but lost a ton of close games. This is not a good matchup for the Raiders, who will be missing their top 2 wide receivers. The only saving grace is that the Raiders wide receivers aren't that great, so it isn't like there will be much of a dropoff incurred. The Seahawks have really bottled up the run, but the Raiders are by far the best running team the Seahawks have faced so far, so this is a different test. The Raiders usually play teams pretty well at home, and I have called that team pretty well so far, picking them to win against both San Diego and Denver. I like them to win this game too. Historically, they have done well against the NFC teams (at least compared to their performance against AFC teams). Look for the Raiders to be .500 at the midpoint of the season for the first time since 2002 (the year they played in the Super Bowl; ironically, they were 4-4 in that year as well).
Seahawks 16 Raiders 24 (OAK)
Minnesota Vikings @ New England (-5)
The Patriots are geniuses again for making that Randy Moss trade. Of course, Brady is only 46-76 for 451 yards with 2 tds and 2 ints since the trade, but they are 2-0, so who gives a shit right. I mean, if Randy Moss was still on their team, the Chargers definitely remember to not fumble the ball without getting touched, or cover potential live balls, right? The only reason that happened is because the Patriots no longer have Randy Moss. The Patriots defense still can't really stop anyone, and their offense is now pretty average, but they keep winning games. They can't be beat. It is 2001, 2003 and 2004 all over again, despite the fact that the Patriots defense is nowhere near the teams of those years, and the fact that the Patriots have been outgained for the season. Of course, Brett Favre will play, which will only mean that he will throw for 10 ints against the Patriots young, but talented defense that gives up 260 yards per game passing and allows their opposition to convert over 50% of their third downs. How can the Patriots not win this game?
Vikings 23 Patriots 31 (NE)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints (-1)
The Saints are a surprise to be getting points against the best team in the league, but I understand it. The Saints still have the mystique of being able to feed of their home crowd in a night game. I mean, they've lost twice already at the Superdome, and lost to Colt McCoy and Max Hall, but those weren't at night (unlike above, I am being totally not sarcastic this time; I mean it). The Saints offense is just waiting to explode. The Steelers are also due for a little tumble, and the second straight road game, after a tough, physical emotional game, might be cause for concern. The Superdome should be jacked up. Also, here is a stat: Brees is 13-4 against 3-4 teams in New Orleans. That said, I like the Steelers. They are the best team in the NFL, and they too really get up for night games. The last time the Steelers lost a Sunday or Monday Night game in which Ben Roethlisberger started (to discount their Week 12 loss to Baltimore last year)? Week 7.... of the 2007 Season. Since, they have won 10 straight. They are also Colt-like in their ability to win when the lights are brightest.
Steelers 27 Saints 24 (PIT)
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts (-5.5)
No Addai, No Collie, No Clark? No problem. The Colts are thirsty for some sweet revenge. Here are a couple of stats for you. The Colts have given up just four sacks in the five games since Week 1, and here is another one: Manning is 22-3 in night games since 2005. Twenty Two and Fucking Three!!! Those three losses? Two were in Weeks 1 and 8 of the 2008 season, when Manning was still recovering from offseason knee surgery, and the team was in the midst of a 3-4 start. The other? Week 10 of the 2007 season, when they went to San Diego and played the team that would end up in the AFC Championship Game that year. In that game, Manning was missing Marvin Harrison, Anthony Gonzalez and, irony here, Dallas Clark. He threw six interceptions, yet led the team back from down 23-0 to within a 26-yard Adam Vinatieri field goal of winning. Yeah, so he almost won a night game on the road throwing to Reggie Wayne, Aaron Moorehead, Craphonso Thorpe, Bryan Fletcher and Ben Utecht. I'll think the guy will be just fine.
Texans 20 Colts 34 (IND)
Enjoy the Games!!!
