No way am I forgetting them this week. Anyway, I'll do a quickie version, as I should at least put up the front that I am studying for three exams.
Record So Far: 28-18-2
Denver Broncos @ Tennessee Titans (-6.5)
The Broncos are not any good away from home. They were beaten by the Jaguars comfortably in Jacksonville. That should say it all right there. The Titans are a team that capitalizes on their opponents mistakes to a high, high degree, seeing by their two blowout wins in games that they didn't really outplay their opponent that dramatically. Luckily for the Titans, the Broncos are a good matchup. They can't really run the ball, which will force Denver back to the air. The Titans have been great in 2010 at stopping the pass so far. The Titans are at home, which makes the line that high. The line scares me, but I see Tennessee maybe getting another turnover-filled victory.
Broncos 16 Titans 27 (TEN)
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)
The Steelers are now the peoples' choice as the best team in the NFL, due to their 3-0 start without Ben Roethlisberger. Of course, their going 3-0 is a great surprise. However, they haven't played a team good enough to totally make their offense incapable. The Titans were that team, but the Titans offense had a breakdown. The Ravens are a good team, and are better suited to beat Pittsburgh than Atlanta was. To beat Pittsburgh, you have to hit them right back in the mouth. You can't finesse your way to a win, especially in Heinz Field. Despite a 2-1 start, the Ravens have a bit of discomfort around them. A big win in Pittsburgh should help ease that. There is a little too much hype around the Steelers right now.
Ravens 20 Steelers 14 (BAL)
Cincinnati Bengals (-3) @ Cleveland Browns
The Bengals are the Bears of the AFC, in that no one gives them any credit. I have to admit that everyone is mostly right when they say that Carson Palmer has not been good, but to call him a horrible quarterback is probably too far. Also, the Bengals have a defense, a really, really good one. The Browns offense is right below average, at best, and the Bengals, in all reality, should be favored by more. Also, it will be fun to have three 3-1 teams in the same division. Either way, the Bengals should win, and should cover. With the Browns defense struggling a little, look for Palmer to have a better game.
Bengals 27 Browns 13 (CIN)
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (-14.5)
This is a large line, and I usually don't like to lay the points on a large line, but the case for Green Bay is big. They should be fuming after that loss, and the Lions still don't have Stafford back. The Lions defensive-line will really test the Packers o-line this week though. The Lions offense is good enough to at least put up 14-20. The key is if the Lions can hold the Packers to 24-28. I have my doubts, as the Packers do love to throw the ball deep, which is not that difficult against one of the more porous secondaries in the league.
Lions 17 Packers 31 (DET)
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (-13)
Despite his bad play, if Matt Moore was starting this game, I would have taken Carolina to cover. The Jimmy Clausen experience is just so bad. Cincinnati was a challenge because they can cover as a team better than any in the NFL. The Saints are a new challenge, because they will come with blitzes that Clausen doesn't even know exist in football. The two biggest things that college QBs have to learn when going to the NFL are that corners cover a helluva lot better, and people blitz, in that they really blitz. So far, Clausen has learned his first lesson. The Saints will abide and give him lesson 2.
Panthers 10 Saints 28 (NO)
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons (-6.5)
The last two road games the 49ers have played, they were embarrased (losing 31-6 and 31-10). When they hosted the Falcons last year, they were embarrassed (losing 45-10 - again, at home). Add that up, and the Falcons should easily cover a touchdown spread. If this was in the bay, I might give some credence to the niners playing desperate, but they should have been playing desperate a week ago against an easier team. Singletary has to go, it is as simple as that. He can keep blaming "rats" and "offensive-coordinators" as long as he wants. The Falcons are one of the best teams in the league, especially indoors. Matt Ryan has really taken that next step. You know, the one everyone was sure he would take after year one, and the one everyone was sure Joe Flacco would take after year two.
49ers 17 Falcons 27 (ATL)
Seattle Seahawks (-2) @ St. Louis Rams
The Rams were actually favored before the Steven Jackson injury. He's their only hope. The Rams have no way of winning this game without their only offensive weapon. People shouldn't overreact to the Rams winning a game for once. I mean, they have been the worst team in the NFL over the last three seasons, and even then, they never made it through a season without winning a game. They'll win a couple, but this won't be one of them. The Seahawks have the ability to distance themselves from the Rams, having already done so with the 49ers. Matt Hasselbeck is back, and if the Seahawks know anything, it is beating the Rams, as they have done it 10 straight times.
Seahawks 24 Rams 20 (SEA)
New York Jets (-6) @ Buffalo
There is a large talent gap here, but the Bills are the one team that always gives the Jets fits. The Dolphins gave the Pats fits when the Pats were actually a dynasty, and the Dolphins were gasping for air. The Jets are now a top-10 team, while the Bills are surely a top-10 pick team, but the Bills give them trouble. The Bills offense is better with Fitzpatrick, but not good enough to win this game. The Bills defense has to play a lot better than they did against New England. Sanchez is in a zone right now. This is probably my most "heart over head" call of the week, but I say the Bills cover (you know a team sucks when it is incredibly gutsy to have them covering a game).
Jets 20 Bills 17 (BUF)
Indianapolis Colts (-8) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
This is a perfect match for the Colts. The Colts will always be able to score against the Jaguars, but especially this year as the Jaguars pass defense is worse than normal. The Jaguars also are nowhere near as potent on offense as they have been in the past. Garrard has been playing more pedestrain than normal. However, the real hush-hush situation in JAX is that Maurice Jones-Drew is not his normal self. Whether it be injury or just frustration of being stuck in a quagmire for years (former more likely, latter more funny). The Jaguars don't have what it takes this year to make it what this matchup was each of the past two years (Colts 31-24 and Colts 35-31).
Colts 34 Jaguars 14 (IND)
Houston Texans (-3) @ Oakland Raiders
The Raiders are finally letting Nnamdi play man against the opponents top receiver on both sides. What were the results? He held Larry Fitzgerald to two catches and 26 yards on 7 pass attempts his way. Andre Johnson is his next test. The Raiders at home have been able to pull of big upsets when they suck. The Raiders don't suck. They are actually mediocre, and they should be 2-1, as they heniouslly outplayed the Cardinals (far more than the Packers outplayed the Bears). The Raiders passing game is more deep-threat now, which is good against a secondary that has given up more yards than any in the league. This is a perfect game for the Raiders to steal.
Texans 20 Raiders 24 (OAK)
Arizona Cardinals @ San Diego Chargers (-9)
The Cardinals are probably the second worst 2-1 team in the league (behind those Buccaneers). The Chargers are one of the best 1-2 teams (not really sure who is better, maybe Minnesota). The Chargers are at home. The Cardinals are on the road, where they can't beat anyone not named St. Louis. The Chargers passing game is running fine without Vincent Jackson (because they haven't played any good defenses, which the Cardinals will continue that trend). The Chargers are an easy pick here.
Cardinals 17 Chargers 31 (SD)
Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5)
The Redskins get up for big games, almost always. This is a huge game for McNabb and Shanahan, as the former wants to stick it to the team that disregarded and dumped him, while the latter wants to show that he still has it. If the Redskins win, despite being 2-2, they will be tied for first place, with also holding a 2-0 division record. That is a good position to be in. This line also seems high. Vick hasn't faced any good defenses yet, but the Redskins have the possibility to be good, or at least better than the Lions and Jaguars. I like the Redskins to pull off another big NFC East win, force every NFC East team to be 2-2 or worse, and make the NFC East one big mediocre mess.
Redskins 24 Eagles 21 (WAS)
Chicago Bears @ New York Giants (-3.5)
I think if the Giants win, they win close, so this is a hard line to play with. The Bears are the better team in my mind, but the Giants are desperate. The Giants are also better than that mistake-riddled suck-cream-cone that played against the Titans. The Bears might have a let down, plus playing the second of back-to-back night games on the road is really difficult. In the first prime-time game in the new Meadowlands Stadium (for them), I think the Giants pull out a squeaker.
Bears 17 Giants 21 (NYG)
New England Patriots (-1) @ Miami Dolphins
Miami is a hard place to play for the Patriots when the Patriots are good. The difference between these two teams in nowhere near as much as it was in 2004 or 2006 or even 2008, in which all years the Dolphins beat the Pats in Miami. Now, this is a night game. Here is a good stat to live by. The Patriots are 1-7 in there last 8 true road games (they won a "road" game in London last year), and that win was against the Bills. The Last time Tom Brady beat a good team on the road? The 2007 16-0 game against the Giants. It is been a while. And now, if you bet the Patriots, you are essentially betting that they beat the Dolphins (a team more or less as good as the Pats) in Miami? Logic just adds up to Miami, as does my hatred for the Pats anyway.
Patriots 20 Dolphins 23 (MIA)
Enjoy the games, but before you do, here is my revised astoundingly-early playoff predictions:
AFC
1.) Indianapolis Colts 13-3
2.) Pittsburgh Steelers 13-3
3.) New York Jets 11-5
4.) San Diego Chargers 9-7
5.) Cincinnati Bengals 11-5
6.) Houston Texans 10-6
NFC
1.) Chicago Bears 12-4
2.) Atlanta Falcons 12-4
3.) New York Giants 10-6
4.) Seattle Seahawks 9-7
5.) Green Bay Packers 11-5
6.) New Orleans Saints 11-5
