The rankings are not based on what they have done for their careers. The rankings are not based on what some hack on SI says about him while getting hard. The rankings are mostly based on how good they are now (the majority), and their outlook for the future (the minority). Basically, if two guys are about even, I went with the younger guy. Last year, I was dumb and did it with players who were starters but only because of injury and the like, so this year I decided to rank the actual starting QBs (if the team still had two starting QBs, I flipped a coin. Fine, I didn't flip a coin, but who gives a shit - I'm not decided NFC Wild Cards, I don't need ten rounds of tiebreakers). Here is a quick guide to the movers off last years' list.
Kurt Warner retired, so he has an excuse for leaving the list. Everyone else pretty much earned their way off the list by exemplifying their inner Ryan Leaf. Kerry Collins, Derek Anderson, Jake Delhomme, Jason Campbell, Josh Johnson, Shaun Hill, Trent Edwards, and Marc Bulger have all left the building. This comprised 32-26 and 24-23 of the list, so I did my job. I put the guys that didn't last 366 days at the bottom of the list, to be replaced by another 9 guys who might not be there next here. Anyway, here we go:
32.) Max Hall (Not Ranked Last Year) - 25, 1st year
I have a feeling that Whisenhunt stays with him unless he starts really sucking, which is a possibility, given that he is not all that good to begin with. I loved how before his first start, the always jolly and fat Peter King wrote something about how Kurt Warner told him that Max Hall reminded Warner of himself. Undrafted, and playing for the Cardinals. The one difference is that at least Warner was an Arena League and Euro League MVP in his day. Max Hall is not. He won a game against the defending champs, but really did nothing to win that game. The Cardinals one offensive drive came courtesy of a Brees interception out of his own endzone. The other two came via defensive returns. I'm not saying that Max Hall will not become the next Kurt Warner. I am saying that there is a better chance that I become the next Kurt Warner.
31.) Ryan Fitzpatrick (NR) - 28, 6th year
He had a nice start against the Patriots, but every QB has had nice numbers against the Patriots. He doesn't have a great arm at all, and really struggles to make out throws. He is a smart player, and I am saying this not entirely because he went to Harvard. To give him credit, the Bills don't have anything much to offer him as weapons, and can't protect for dick, but his physical skills might be the worst in the league. There is a reason he wasn't even the Bills starter at the beginning of the year, and probably won't be next year.
30.) Matt Moore (NR) - 26, 4th year
I totally had this guy wrong. I admit when I make mistakes, and I made a big mistake reading him. He has some physical tools, and hasn't had much to work with, but he is nowhere near the player that even Jake Delhomme on an average day was. He didn't get much protection, but lacked pocket awareness to escape anyway. He has the physical skills to be a journeyman, much like the two people above him.
29.) Alex Smith (NR) - 26, 6th year
People actually clamored to see David Carr over him after seeing him play. Alex Smith is a player who will have flashes of good-ness, but those just mask his horrible decision making, and awful touch on passes. He wildly overthrows way too many passes, and gets confused on making reads. This is really odd, considering his mental ability was his strongsuit coming into the league back in the 2005 draft. I love how the Bay Area has the three biggest #1 overall draft busts of the decade, and two are on the same team. I will say this, in the right system, he has a chance, but I don't know what that system is, since he has played in so many and failed in so many already.
28.) Colt McCoy (NR) - 24, 1st year
That was a great performance, but I cannot legitimately mark him any higher with only one game in his career. Colt McCoy barely got the ball downfield. He makes quick reads, and good decisions, from what I can see. He seems to be a more check-downy version of Drew Brees, which might not be a terrible thing. However, those last two sentences also described one Mr. Timothy Couch Potato. You need to have at least a good arm to play in the cold, outdoors, so this might not be as good as it looked in Game 1.
27.) Matt Cassel (25 Last Year) - 28, 6th year
Here is my take about Cassel, the first QB to be ranked last year as well: He has not regressed, but he has not progressed. It is painfully obvious that his success was really a product of having Randy Moss on his team, as well as Wes Welker, and a great Offensive Coordinator. Matt should not be ashamed or saddened, since he still has a nice contract to live off of, and is not the first QB to have his career made by Randy Moss. All that does is put him level with Jeff George, Randall Cunningham, Daunte Culpepper and Tom Brad.... (Okay, I couldn't do it).
26.) David Garrard (19) - 32, 9th year
The man who defined "average" is now worse than "average". He might be hurt longterm, which hurts this lists' credibility, but I didn't want to hurt whatever Bill fan may be reading this by listing Trent Edwards here as well. Garrard, when he has time to throw, or when he plays the Colts, can still be effective, but he is not the best decision maker on the field. He has a propensity for critical interceptions. His mobility gives him some upside, but he has already peaked.
25.) Bruce Gradkowski (NR) - 27, 5th year
I think that he is the starter when he gets healthy, so he gets the nod as the Raiders' representative. Gradkowski doesn't have the greatest arm, and is not the most accurate player, but he does one thing at about a top-10 level which makes him better than the seven QBs above: he can play well under pressure. This is extremely important as he plays behind the Raiders o-line. He can change his arm angle and throw with people in his face. Average player, which for the Raiders is better than most of what they've had of late.
24.) Josh Freeman (NR) - 22, 2nd year
He's a player that could jump up this list by next year. Freeman has gotten to the point where he will play effectively against bad to mediocre teams. He still struggles against the better teams, which puts him a level below the other young QBs in the league. Freeman is not your prototypical black QB, in that he is much more willing to stay in the pocket. He reminds me of Roethlisberger. He uses his athletic abilities to avoid rush and stay in the pocket, not to rush for yards. He has one of the best arms, and seems to be getting better, but I would love to see him step up and play good against a good team.
23.) Vince Young (NR) - 27, 5th year
He is really the perfect game manager. Against bad teams, Young will play good. That is fine. All QBs will play good against bad teams, and if they don't they belong in the UFL (Tim Rattay, for instance). Young is the type of player that will throw up a 17-30, for 180 yards, and one TD and one INT against good teams. That is not enough to win the game by itself, but it won't necessarily lose it. He doesn't seem to be near the runner he was in his rookie and sophomore season, which may be by design. He is finally firmly entrenched in that starting spot, though.
22.) Kevin Kolb (NR) - 26, 4th year
I want to see him perform against a good defense on the road before I make any final decision on Kolb. He struggled mightily early in the year against a good Packers defense. He played well against the 49ers (ass) and Falcons (not hard to do at home). He gets his chance this weekend against the Titans. Kolb has a much better arm than I expected, manly since the only thing he did in his performance against the Redskins was throw screens. His accuracy seems to be an issue, but it could get better. Physically, there is not much time for him to grow, as he already is 26.
21.) Matt Hasselbeck (17) - 35, 13th year
What is more shocking: That the Matthew is having a nice bounceback season, or that he is the second oldest starting QB in the league. I find it hilarious that Brett Favre is so old, that the second oldest QB in the league was once Favre's young backup. Hasselbeck had a great game against the Bears because he had time to throw, but there are two problems. First, he's old so his future prospects are whatever is worse than 'bleak', and he is extremely injury prone. On any play, he has about a 40% higher chance of getting injured than the average QB (note: not totally true), so that hurts his rankings. Still love the guy, though.
20.) Matthew Stafford (18) - 22, 2nd year
Hard to really rate him since he hasn't played much this year. His physical tools are off the charts, and in limited action against teams that were average to bad, his accuracy was much better than it translated to be in the NFL. He has great weapons to work with. There is a slight concern that I have that he might be injury prone, since this is the second time he hurt the same shoulder, but neither separation came when he was throwing the ball. He has a bright future, but he has to stay healthy.
19.) Kyle Orton (20) - 27, 6th year
Kyle Orton is having a dream season running Josh McDaniels' offense. If I was Tom Brady I would slap McDaniels. The endless line of QBs putting up huge numbers in McDaniels' offense while sucking elsewhere is really hurting Brady's image (of course it isn't because too many people are milking the goat that Brady held in that photograph to care, but whatever). The problem with Orton is that he kills you at the worst times, like his two failed 4th downs against Indy, or that fumbled snap and fumbled fumble recovery against the Jets. There is a limit to where Orton can take you, and that limit is about 8-8, unless you have the 2005 Bears defense behind him.
18.) Chad Henne (21) - 25, 3rd year
Although Chad Henne has fallen behind a certain other QB from the AFC East, he's still showing promise. His performance against the Patriots was a total nightmare, but in reality, he's not that bad. He still stares down his receivers too much, and relies too much on short routes, but that could change once the Dolphins get any viable deep threat. Brandon Marshall has really helped him to get consistent. What also helps his ranking is that he is still young. There is still room to grow physically, which is key.
17.) Carson Palmer (9) - 30, 8th year
I'm done defending him. He is nowhere near as bad as some people (Bill "I love Mad Men and Jersey Shore so much I would fuck Don Draper wearing Snooki's tan" Simmons, for instance) think he is, but he is clearly not, and probably never get to, where he was even in 2006-2007. I forgot that he decided not to have Tommy John surgery after the 2008 season, instead deciding to let his elbow heal naturally. That might be as big of a factor as that gruesome knee injury back in 2005, but that it more becuase if Kimo von Olhoffen never shredded Palmers' knee (and career), the Colts win the title that year. Fuck You Kimo.
16.) Sam Bradford (NR) - 23, 1st year
Man, I am totally on board with the Bradford Machine. He looks great. He has no weapons at all but random rookies from Missourri. He lost the teams incumbent No. 1 starter and then lost his security blanket and favorite target in Mark Clayton. All he did was beat the Chargers. He is getting a lot better pass protection than most #1 overall picks, but still. The guy is great. He inherited one of the least talented teams of any #1 overall pick ever, and has already TRIPLED his teams' win total from last season. Sign me up.
15.) Mark Sanchez (22) - 23, 2nd year
He has really impressed me this year becuase he is far less of a gunslinger than he was last year. His decision making was not good at all last season, and he has cleaned up that part of his game tremendously. He has a lot better pocket presence than last year as well. Sanchez can throw a beautiful deep ball, but has also improved his short and intermediate game as well. He is the most improved QB from 2009 to 2010. Well done, Sanchize.
14.) Tony Romo (15) - 30, 8th year
Here is the problem with Bromo. He has peaked. He's already 30 years old. There is no real getting better for him. He still has the same problems he always did. He has enough Roethlisberger-esque moments to make himself think that he can elude pressure, which he can't do. He doesn't read zone blitzes well at all (case in point, the Vikings intercepted him on pretty much the same zone blitz in last weeks game and the divisional playoff game last year). Romo has ability to throw a great deep ball, but struggles in the red zone too much. There is just not enough there to grow to go higher.
13.) Donovan McNabb (13) - 33, 12th year
He is getting better in Shanahan's system every week, which gives him nice potential. His strung of serious, but freak, injuries have probably kept him fresh, in the game-worn sense. McNabb still throws one of the best deep balls in the league, and still is maddeningly wildly accurate in short throws. McNabb remains one of the hardest QBs to sack in the NFL, which is amazing. He was able to fend off a serious Colts pass rush and deliver good throws. Obviously, he is up there in age, but still seems to have all the physical skills that he had five year ago, as far as his arm is concerned.
12.) Joe Flacco (6) - 25, 3rd year
I did actually believe that he was the 6th best QB in the league this time last year, but he has regressed. In crunch time, he turns into a shell and starts checking down way too much. He also relies way too much in his arm, failing to step up into a lot of throws. Flacco is still not that great at reading defenses. Flacco is young, and he can improve, but I am just not seeing it. He has good enough physical tools that he is this good without any of the things I mentioned above. Joe Flacco is now the overrated member of the 2008 QB draft class, which is a nice change from last season.
11.) Jay Cutler (8) - 27, 5th year
If he gets protection he is one of the better players, but he has seen so battered the last couple of years that he might turn into Marc Bulger (with better ability). When he did get time, in the Green Bay and Dallas games, he was great. He is not making the same mistakes last year. He seems to have truly learned that his physical ability will not take him everywhere. Cutler is still easily the best QB out of that draft class, and can win games for a team if he gets protection. He has even proved that he doesn't necessarily need good receivers to win games either. The dumbest notion in the league is that he wouldn't have been better than Orton if he was still with Denver.
10.) Brett Favre (16) - 41, 20th year
With Moss, he has started playing like he did in 2009. That Favre was a completely great player. He didn't take many chances. He did not force balls (NFC Championship Game excluded). Favre's arm is fine. If the Favre of the past two weeks was him with a bad elbow, then he would be the best QB in the league with a good elbow. Brett Favre is still one of the best QBs in this league if he gets enough protection, and that is the key. However, he is one of the better QBs in the league under heavy rush, which was showed for 58 minutes of that NFC Title Game.
9.) Matt Ryan (10) - 25, 3rd year
I love Matt Ryan. He is still only 25 so he has a couple years of growing to do physically, but he is a far more mentally progressed QB than Flacco. Matt Ryan was overrated as a rookie, but then became underrated because he was so overrated. He doesn't have the weapons Flacco does. He doesn't have the defense that Flacco does. He's won just as many games as Flacco. Matt Ryan's quick release allows him to get away with not great protection. He goes through his progressions quickly, and makes good decisions. He can get flustered when pressured, but that should get better as he gets more experienced.
8.) Matt Schaub (12) - 29, 7th year
He hasn't been hurt in two years, which is really the only the thing he had to prove. He is just as good as anyone now. He can lead comebacks as good as almost every other QB in the league. He has great rapport with Schaub. The biggest weakness in his game is that he gets flustered under pressure, and doesn't move well around the pocket. What aids this weakness is the fact that he is great on the run, which Kubiak uses a lot. He doesn't seem to have a great arm, but has fantastic accuracy, and touch. He's great.
7.) Aaron Rodgers (7) - 26, 6th year
He's a tad overrated now, as Steve Young already labelled him as a hall-of-famer. His play last year was great, but that Int% was in no way sustainable, and we have seen that this year. He's already matched his interception total from last year in six games. Here are the positives. He is the best thrower on the run in the league. His weird top down release allows him to easily throw running either side. Rodgers also has great touch. The one thing though is that he forces WAY too many balls into tight coverage, which results in quite a few incompletions.
6.) Eli Manning (11) - 29, 7th year
Since the rankings last year, no player has done more to cement his top-10 status more than Eli Manning. Sure, he has thrown 8 interceptions, but six of those were first in the hands of his receivers but bounced off and were picked. His completion percentage has rised four straight years. He doesn't have any more crap games, except for that Indy one where he got no protection at all. The Giants pass offense is now one of the most quietly formidable in the league. He's advanced so much since that 2007 postseason. He will never be his brother, but he's finally entrenched as a player of his own.
5.) Tom Brady (5) - 33, 11th year
He's about where he was last year. One nice quarter won't change anything. Tom is a QB who will do well late in games because defenses usually get conservative late in games. He is one of the best timing passers in the league, and will dominate with short and intermediate routes. Here is the concern. This was the first game since the opener against Buffalo in 2009 where he successfully led a 4th quarter comeback, and that was aided by the Bills fumbling a kickoff. He's nowhere near as consistent as he used to be.
4.) Philip Rivers (4) - 28, 7th year
Rivers' performance without Vincent Jackson has really made him grow up in my eyes. It may not show in the rankings, since the top-3 are all hall-of-fame QBs, but his continues to get better every year. He still has an ungodly throwing motion, but his incredible accuracy is astounding. He is one of the smartest QBs at identifying blitzers and coverages, and his headiness allows him to overcome massive athleticism deficiencies (speed, mainly). I am now at the point where I respect the hell out of him. His GM has done nothing right by him, by feuding with his best weapon, but he has put that team on his back, and if not for ungodly special teams, he would have a 4-2 or 5-1 team.
3.) Drew Brees (2) - 31, 10th year
How do you win a Super Bowl and drop? Not quite sure, but his performance this year has been less than. Brees from 2006-2008 would have been in the top-5. Brees in 2009 might have been a perfect storm of greatness. His numbers in 2010 are much more indicative of the QB from before, one who could put up great numbers, complete a hell of a lot of short passes, but throw untimely interceptions, and not see coverages as well as other great QBs. Having Sean Payton really helps though.
2.) Ben Roethlisberger (3) - 28, 7th year
He was great in his return, and by all accounts has started to become even more of a film-junkie than he was before. Physically, he is one of the best QBs EVER. His numbers have been great throughout his career. Early in his career, the Steelers ran it a lot, and his rate numbers (Y/A, cmp%, passer rating) were amazing. Then, they started to air it out, and his conventional numbers became amazing as well. He has played his whole career behind an average at best o-line, and has excelled. Roethlisberger may not be the greatest citizen in the world, or more accurately, he is nowhere near that, but as a QB, there is only one better in the league.
1.) Peyton Manning (1) - 34, 13th year
This guy. He's the 3rd oldest starting QB in the league, which might be cause for concern, but the all-time greats like Unitas, Elway, Montana, Marino and Favre aged pretty well physically. Mentally, he's as good as ever. Defenses are taking the deep ball away more and more, and he has become more and more cerebral. He rarely forces balls, and reads defenses about as well as anyone in the league. For a long time, the quip was "What would he do with a bad o-line?" The past two years have made it plainly obvious that he has had a bad o-line the whole time, but he's able to read blitzes and get rid of the ball that it doesn't matter. 2010 might be his strongest test, with all his receivers banged up, Dallas Clark potentially missing the rest of the season and Joe Addai injured. I'll be damned if he doesn't do what he always does, play amazingly well.
We'll see what the list looks like in 2011. The top-10 is pretty entrenched, but there is room for newbies. Just ask Eli Manning.
