I was miserable at picking games last week. Utterly horrible. It was one of my worst performances of my handicapping career. Thank God I did not decide to place any bets with the bookie that week (the bookie in my mind, of course). I have to redeem myself, much like the Bears after that lousy performance. I'll try my best, but like Cutler, I am still a bit concussed after each game I picked wrong repeatedly hit me on the head.
Last Week: 5-9
Year-to-Date Record: 33-27-2
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens (-7)
This is a large line for a team that just went on the road and won, in the Broncos. However, playing the second straight physical road game might be hard for a pretty finnesse-type team like the Broncos. If you remember, the Broncos started out 6-0 last year, then went to Baltimore. They were crushed, and were never the same again. Obviously, they are nowhere near 6-0, but they are riding high off that 4th quarter comeback against the Titans. The Ravens are playing just their second home game, and would probably like to play a bit better than they did in that initial one, which they had to come back in the 4th against the Browns. The Ravens are built to beat the Broncos, and they might finally get that running game going.
Broncos 14 Ravens 24 (BAL)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills (PK)
Not sure why this is a pick. As far as I know, no major player is out for either team, but it probably doesn't matter. The Jaguars are set up perfectly for a let down. They won their Super Bowl in beating the Colts, and unlike Houston (who also won their Super Bowl by beating the Colts) aren't really in contention for that actual Super Bowl. The Bills won't have many chances to win games. They have this, the Lions game and the Browns game. That's about it. The Bills are home, which did not serve them too well last week, but I keep coming back to the fact that the Jaguars, who don't travel well anyway, spent so much in beating the Colts, that it might be hard to focus for this Bills team.
Jaguars 17 Bills 20 (BUF)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts (-7)
This line has come down since the start of the week. That makes picking the Colts an easier pick. The Colts have played one home game this year, and that was off a loss. They destroyed the Giants 38-14 in a game that was nowhere near that close. The worry is that the Chiefs running game could gash the Colts, but the Colts run defense is usually a hell of a lot better at home than on the road. Plus, the Colts usually aren't crushed on the ground by the good running teams (with the exception of that Miami game last year). They held Chris Johnson in check both times last year. The Colts offense should be able to shred the Chiefs defense. The only good offense the Chiefs played was the Chargers in a rainstorm, and still the Chargers moved the ball effectively. The Colts come back home and right the ship. They need to.
Chiefs 13 Colts 34 (IND)
St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions (-3)
The Rams can't win three in a row, can they? Shaun Hill has been productive in his time starting for Stafford, and Megatron should go off against the Rams secondary. The Lions defense has been pretty stable, giving up only three big plays a game (instead of seventeen). The Rams haven't won a road game in God knows how long (its been a fucking long time). The Lions are better than 0-4, and actually sold out this game, as even their fans see this as an opportunity to pick up a win. I do too.
Rams 17 Lions 24 (DET)
Atlanta Falcons (-3) @ Cleveland Browns
If the Falcons are serious contenders for "Best Team in the NFC" they win this game, and win it easily. The Falcons need to learn to not mess around with games. They are 3-1, but they could easily be 1-3. The Browns are a sneaky, frisky team that has a habit of pulling off games like this. Expect to see a big dose of Peyton Hillis this game, but the Falcons offense should be able to outscore anything the Hillis machine throws up. Three seems like a pessimistic margin of victory. The Falcons are appreciably better than the Browns.
Falcons 27 Browns 17 (ATL)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5)
The Bengals may not score that many points, because the Bucs defense can shut down the running game, and I don't trust Palmer to be that consistent against an above average secondary when he has no running help. Luckily for me, and the Bengals, their defense should eat Josh Freeman alive. Freeman struggled mightily against the Steelers went they went to man coverage, which is what the Bengals use most of the time. Freeman hasn't faced a duo of corners this good in his life. He will get a nice welcome to what the NFL really is, which is a nice finishing lesson after he learned just how good a pass rush can be when he played the Steelers.
Buccaneers 10 Bengals 24 (CIN)
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers (-1)
The Panthers are favored because of Cutler missing the game. Todd Collins, of 2007 Redskins fame, is the starting QB, which is not good news. Better news is that the Panthers are not very good. Their running game finally got going, but the Bears are one of the best run defenses in the league. Jimmy Clausen did not look all that good against the Saints, and the Bears defense is better. Plus, there are reports of Steve Smith not being able to establish the rules and regulations of the game with Jimmy Clausen right now. The fact that the Panthers are favored makes this an easy choice. Backup QBs can win one game, especially if that game is against a team that is 0-4.
Bears 17 Panthers 7 (CHI)
Green Bay Packers (-2.5) @ Washington Redskins
The Redskins have been able to play well against good teams. They were a field goal away from beating the Texans, and their defense was solid against both Dallas and Philadelphia. The Redskins have given up a ton of yards, but not that many points. Do you know what team excels at putting up tons of yards, but not that many points (other than the Ravens and Cowboys): The Green Bay Rodgers. That team that came laughably close to clusterfucklossing to the Lions. The Redskins need to make a statement out of their division, because somehow, despite being essentially in first place with a 2-0 division record, the Redskins are getting no respect. That all changes.
Packers 20 Redskins 24 (WAS)
New York Giants @ Houston Texans (-3)
Andre Johnson is still hit or miss, which makes me lean towards the Giants. I am skeptical that their d-line really is back, because the Bears o-lineman seemed to have had their arms cryogenically frozen, but their 10 sack performance is impressive regardless of opponent. The Texans are suddenly a bit overrated. They are 3-1, but have one of the worst defenses in the league. They lead the league in yards allowed, in the way that they have allowed the most yards of any team. They especially suck at Pass defense, which should make Eli happy. The Giants seem like really live dogs. What really makes me want to pick the Giants is the fact that Tiki called them out. They love to fuck with Tiki. This might not be as good as when they won a Super Bowl without his jailbait-loving ass, but it is close.
Giants 27 Texans 21 (NYG)
New Orleans Saints (-6.5) @ Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals stink. The Cardinals are starting Max Hall. The Cardinals were outgained by over 400 yards in the last two weeks combined. The Cardinals were just sacked 9 times by a team that entered the game with only 6 sacks. The Saints are good in domes. The Saints should explode one of these weeks, and the Cardinals gave up 41 points twice already. The Saints need to make a statement. The Saints blew this team out 45-14 when Warner was playing. The math is the math.
Saints 34 Cardinals 14 (NO)
San Diego Chargers (-6) @ Oakland Raiders
The Riaders pull of one huge upset at home every year (some years more than one). The Raiders are substantially better than that 1-3 record. They should be 2-2. They can finally consistently move the ball. The Chargers have a myriad of problems on the road, including the fact that they are 0-2 on the road, become turnover-happy and give up special teams touchdowns. The Raiders defense has been able to control the Chargers in the past, and I think they do just enough to finally beat the Chargers.
Chargers 17 Raiders 21 (OAK)
Tennessee Titans @ Dallas Cowboys (-7)
The Cowboys have o-line problems. They have only given up one sack, but Romo has been pressure much more than that. The Titans have one of the best d-lines in the league. The Cowboy rush defense is good enough to contain CJ2K (who won't sniff 2K this year). The Titans offense needs to play better though, they need to at least attempt to air it out a little more. The Cowboys are off a bye, so they should be rested. The Titans are coming off of a tough loss, so they should be jacked up. The Cowboys probably win this one, since if they don't Jerry might kill them if they start 0-2 in their building, but it will be close.
Titans 17 Cowboys 20 (TEN)
Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
This is the worst Sunday Night Game in a long, long time. What is more bastardized, the 49ers are favored despite being 0-4. Either way, I will give this game the same amount of time that the NBC people took in considering this as a game. Who gives a fuck. Also, how the hell did the 49ers get two home prime-time games this year?
Eagles 28 49ers 21 (PHI)
Minnesota Vikings @ New York Jets (-4)
The Jets are riding high 3-1. The Vikings are riding high with Randy Moss in tow. I don't think Darrelle Revis is 100%. The Vikings have motivation. The Vikings defense is quietly one of the best in the league. I can't see the Vikings starting 1-3. I just can't. Plus, Randy Moss is beast in prime-time. He's great when first coming to a team. Moss is also motivated to crush Revis, again. I like the Vikings to pull an upset.
Vikings 24 Jets 20 (MIN)
Enjoy the Games!!!!
