Back for another week of action. I went 9-5 last week, which is good. I am not too comfortably under my 60% projection for the year, so I really need to step up my game. No more going with my heart, or at least I'll limit my "go with my heart" to two each week.. I am doing this at 3 in the morning, which probably doesn't bode well for the effectiveness of these picks. Anyway, let's get to them
Last Week: 9-5
Year-to-Date: 52-36-2 (58.9%)
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins have only struggled defensively against one team in the league this year, the Jets. The Pats dropped 41, but a lot of that was due to special teams TDs. The Jets are actually a good baseline on offense of what the Steelers could be, with their solid running game, and a passing game that relies more on big plays, because of the sometimes off accuracy of their quarterback. The Steelers are better passing than the Jets, which doesn't bode too well with the Dolphins, since they are better against the pass. As for the other side, the Dolphins offensive line has been solid, which could help soften the greatest advantage the Steelers have on defense. The Steelers also struggle to contain big receivers, which bodes well for Brandon Marshall. My head is pointing to Miami, as nearly all of these points I listed above favor the Dolphins.
Steelers 17 Dolphins 16 (MIA)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
Atlanta is not built to win this game, but it is in Atlanta, where Matt Ryan is 15-1 as a starting QB. That is a scary good stat, which also points to them being able to beat any team in Atlanta, even one that does matchup well with them. The Falcons struggle against these more physical teams, but being indoors does negate some of that advantage. If there ever was a week for the Bengals to show up, it is this one, as they had their bye. The Falcons are in a tough position here, playing a team on their bye, after a physical game against the Eagles. The Bengals should be able to run and pass with more effectiveness than before. Also, the Falcons offense is very up and down. My head tells me to go with Cincinnati.
Bengals 24 Falcons 20 (CIN)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs (-10)
Todd Bouman is expected to be the starting QB for the Jaguars on Sunday, which is, to put it mildly, not a good thing. Bouman last threw a pass in the NFL in 2005, when he QBed the post-Katrina Saints team, and his numbers were not any good. What is worse is the Chiefs defensive strength is against the rush, so Maurice Jones Drew and the running game probably won't contribute as much as they usually do. The Jaguars are also horrible on the road against any team not named Buffalo. That is why I really should not have any trouble with this line. The Chiefs are not, in my mind, a great team, but they should be able to beat a team QBd by someone who hasn't thrown a pass in five years at home. This is probably the easiest play on the week.
Jaguars 10 Chiefs 27 (KC)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans (-3)
The Eagles can grab sole possession of the best record in the AFC South with a win here, and at home, they probably are a good play. The Eagles will be without DeSean Jackson, which is great for the Titans, as giving up the big play is a major weakness. The Eagles o-line has been great this year, giving up just one sack per game. The Titans have registered 3.5 sacks per game. Something has to give, and I usually go with the defense on those types of stats. What scares me is that the Titans seem complacent at home. Their two losses have both come at home, including one to Denver, a team that is probably on par with an Eagles team missing DeSean Jackson. The Eagles rush defense, albeit being better each of the last two weeks, has not been good overall, which might signal a big game for CJnot2K. The Eagles are riding a little too high after that win over the Falcons, but the Titans may be doing the same. I will take the points and go with the team I have more week-to-week trust in, the Titans.
Eagles 17 Titans 24 (TEN)
Washington Redskins @ Chicago Bears (-2.5)
The Bears are at home, where despite the Seahawks game (which might be their "that game" where nothing goes right, and the team looks about twice as bad as it actually is), they are a solid team. The Redskins have already lost to the Rams on the road, and have the second worst pass defense in the NFL. The Bears can shut down the Redskins run offense easily, which will lead to Julius Peppers and Israel Idonije being able to tee off a slightly injured Chris Williams. I like the Bears here. The amazing public sentiment for the Redskins is amazing, considering all three of their wins were by less than a touchdown. The Redskins do have three nice wins, over the Eagles, Cowboys and Packers. However, the Bears beat the Cowboys and Packers as well, just as unconvincingly.
Redskins 16 Bears 21 (CHI)
Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints (-13)
This is an awfully high line for a team that up until last week had won all its games by 5 points or less, isn't it? The Browns haven't been blown out yet, and they have good numbers against the pass, except for one area: y/a. They are 28th in y/a allowed, which doesn't bode well against a team who has struggled throwing deep. Forcing the Saints to throw short is the easiest way to beat them, or at least stay close, and the Browns will have trouble doing that. Also, it really is about time the Saints put together a full performance in front of their hometown fans. The one thing I keep coming back to is the fact that the Browns have kept every game close. The caveat: the best team they played was the Ravens, who just don't have the offensive power to blow out the Browns when the Browns are moving the ball. The Saints do. I am really afraid of a backdoor cover, but I will say that the Saints pull it out.
Browns 14 Saints 31 (NO)
Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens (-13)
Another huge line. I don't see how the Bills keep this game close, especially since the Ravens will be amped up to get the taste of that horrible loss to New England out of their mouths. The Bills are not a good team, and the Ravens have shown that with this cast of players, they are capable of laying the wood to a team, and crushing them. Basically, covering these high lines. I don't see a way it doesn't happen here. Flacco struggles when he gets pressure in his face (not from the sides) which the Bills really struggle at. This will give Flacco time to step up into his throws. Also, the Ravens will be able to control the clock in this one too with the running game. Taking two -13 lines is pushing it, and here is why I think the Bills cover. The Ravens had to play a physical overtime game, while the Bills had two weeks.
Bills 17 Ravens 27 (BUF)
San Francisco 49ers (-3) @ Carolina Panthers
West Coast teams playing at 10 am PT (the 1 pm game on the East Coast) like what the 49ers are doing have never been good plays at all. The 49ers rush defense has mysteriously fallen off this year, which is good news for DeAngelo Williams who is starting to hit his stride this year. DeAngelo has had back-to0back 5+ypc days, which bodes well in this game. Plus, Steve Smith will be back in the game as well. The 49ers will probably be flat, or overlooking the 0-5 Panthers, or, and this is most likely, both. I like the Panthers here to score their first win against a tired, sleeepy 49er team.
49ers 17 Panthers 20 (CAR)
St. Louis Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)
I don't know what world I am ready for more: One where St. Louis is 4-3, or one where Tampa Bay is 4-2. Both are astonishing, and one will happen. I think both these teams, at the end of the year, will be decidedly below average (between 5-11 and 7-9). The Buccaneers have been blown out in each of their past two home games, although both of those games were against pretty good teams (Pittsburgh and New Orleans). The Rams are 0-2 on the road, losing in Oakland and getting smacked 44-6 in Detroit. Neither team is anything better than mediocre in any facet of the game, except that St. Louis' pass rush might have a marked advantage against the Bucs o-line, but even that is marginal at best. I'm going to have to use my gut on this one, and say that the Rams run defense is their weaker unit, which is good since the Bucs running game is not good. I think the Rams will get pressure to Freeman, and do just enough offensively (heavy dose of Steven Jackson) to steal this game.
Rams 21 Buccaneers 16 (STL)
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)
If this was an eliminator pool, this would be my lock of the week. There is no way the Seahawks lose in Qwest to Max Hall. The Seahawks have registerd 17 sacks, and the Cardinals have allowed 18 which is a recipe for a young QB who won't have great pocket presence. Max Hall is making his first road start in his NFL career, and it just so happens it is in the loudest stadium in the league. Matt Hasselbeck looked invigorated last week against Chicago. The Seahawks 2nd ranked run defense should be able to negate the Cardinals run game, which puts this game in the balance between the Seahawks horrible pass coverage and the Cardinals lousy passing game. I'll go with the defensive side. I really don't see how the Cardinals cover, unless their defense plays with an intensity they haven't come close to showing on the road.
Cardinals 13 Seahawks 24 (SEA)
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos (-8)
Despite the assortment of average options the Raiders could start here, they should be able to make hay against the Broncos defense. Denver's run defense will not be able to contain the Raiders, especially with news that Darren McFadden should be back for Oakland. They have been gashed all year long. Even on pass defense, the Broncos have allowed 6.7 ypa, which is not great when coupled with their meager 7 sacks in 6 games. The Raider pass defense can be beaten, but the only QB to have a good game against them was Phil Rivers, which isn't saying much, since Rivers has torched every pass defense he's faced. Taking that game out of the equation, and their numbers go from bad to average. The Raiders have one of the worst run defenses, but the Broncos rushing game is abhorrently bad. The Raiders are also a team who's play can wildly change from week to week, and the @Broncos week is usually one of their more consistent weeks, from their epic win in the snow in 2004, their loss at the gun in 2007, and their back to back wins in Invesco Field in 2008 and 2009. I don't think the Raiders win, since the Broncos are tough to beat at home, but eight points seems like too many to give.
Raiders 17 Broncos 20 (OAK)
New England Patriots @ San Diego Chargers (-2.5)
Vegas must know something. Despite the fact that Malcolm Floyd is out, Legedu Nannee is most likely out, and Antonio Gates will be hobbled, it is amazing that the Chargers are favorites. I mean, the Pats defense is horrible, sure, and Phil Rivers is great, sure, and these two always play close games, and Rivers is in that class where he can make the others around him better. This is all true, but I still can't believe the Chargers are favored, given that Vegas has pumped a couple extra points to the Pats in the past couple of years. The Chargers have a great pass rush again, which should be able to help at least contain the Pats offense, and in there lies the key. The Pats offense is not explosive enough to put up more than 31 points, so can they hold the Chargers to under that. Normally, I would say no, but in this case, with all the weapons missing for Rivers, I think they can. I hope to God I am wrong, but I cannot go against a healthy team playing a most unhealthy underachieving team, despite the fact that the Chargers are a completely different animal in Qualcomm.
Patriots 27 Chargers 24 (NE)
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (-2.5)
Clay Matthews is supposed to be back, but I doubt he is nearing 100% just yet, which helps the Vikings tremendously. The Vikings o-line is the only thing holding them back, but that really was the case last year, and they played well against the Packers each time. The Packers did not get a single sack in either matchup last year, when the Packers pass rush, and Vikings pass protection was about the same as it is now. The Vikings pass rush, on the other hand, dominated the Packers o-line. The Packers o-line, ever since the Ryan Grant injury took away the threat of the run, has been falling back near the level that nearly got Aaron Rodgers killed early last year, giving up 11 sacks in their last three games. This doesn't point to good things against a Vikings d-line that finally showed up against Dallas. Brett Favre also clearly lives for this game, seeing by his performance in each game last season. I can't believe I am saying this, considering how much I was against the Vikings when the season started, and the Packers were my preseason pick as NFC Champions, but I like the Vikings.
Vikings 24 Packers 21 (MIN)
New York Giants (-3) @ Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have given up 7 sacks on the year. Sounds good, right? Well, 6 of those came in one game, against a team whose defensive pass rush formula is very much similar to the New York Giants, in the Tennessee Titans. The Giants pass rush has been on a tear of late, with 15 sacks in their last 3 games. As it does in so many games, and especially when it concerns the Cowboys, it comes down to pass rush. Look at the games where the Cowboys fail? The 2007 playoff loss the the Giants, where the pass rush broke down completely in the 4th quarter, or the playoff loss last year to Minnesota, where Romo basically became a tackling dummy for the Vikings d-line. The Giants probably can't wait for this game. Also, Ever since that Indianapolis game where the Giants played a ridiculous defense and basically asked the Colts to run, their run defense has been great. Really, really great. They will make the Cowboys one dimensional, which will help their cause. The Cowboys defense looks nice on paper, but their rate stats aren't great, with a 6.1 ypa and a 4.2 ypc (contrast this with a 5.0 and 3.5 respectively for the Giants). The Cowboys defense is not as good as the Giants defense, period. Defense wins, especially when the offenses are pretty evenly matched. Take the team that not only "knows how to win games" but is just plain better, especially where it really counts, on defense.
Giants 27 Cowboys 23 (NYG)
Enjoy the Games!!!!
