After next week, each team will have played 12 games, officially meaning that the NFL has entered the home-stretch. With that comes a real look at the MVP, and playoff seeding. What I'm really saying is that there will be changes to the format of the Power Rankings column. But that is for another time. Let's get to Week 13 picks.
Actually, before we do that, let's stop and first let me explain that after losing a couple of these picks because I didn't buy a half point or point, I'm going to start pretending to bet fake money. To make it easy, I'm placing 1,000 fake dollars on each game. I'm also pretending I have done that on every game so far, and I am using a fake system where I am laying an additional 20% to buy half a point, and an additional 30% to buy a full point. I am assuming no vig (hooray!!). So, this season, I have gone 98-75-3 so far through 11 weeks, and assuming no vig and 1,000 per bet, I am up a tidy $23,000 (BOOM!!). Starting this week, I'm going to keep track, and indicate if I am actually buying a half point or full point (which I would rarely do).
OK, now let's get to those picks.
New Orleans Saints (5-6) @ Atlanta Falcons (10-1) (ATL -3)
If the Saints were a little better, this might have been the best TNF game of the year. Instead, the Saints come in after a harrowing loss, while the Falcons are coming in slightly banged up, with Asante Samuel in doubt. Anyway, the game is probably more meaningful for the Saints who have some sliver of a Wild Card hope at this point, but the Falcons would love to finally get a win in this rivalry again. To me, this line is really low. The Falcons are definitely not as good as their record, but the Saints aren't exactly better than a .500 type team. Other than their close win against the Falcons, they've beaten zero good teams this season, and the last two times they played a good team, they lost by double digits (@DEN, vs. SF). This line essentially means that Vegas sees the teams as equals (three point bump for the home Falcons), and I completely disagree.
Saints 24 Falcons 31 (ATL -3)
Seattle Seahawks (6-5) @ Chicago Bears (8-3) (CHI -3.5)
Another line that seems staggeringly low. The Bears, in which Jay Cutler played the whole game, are 8-1, and have given up 20 or more points just twice (and both needed D/ST TDs to get there). The Seahawks don't travel particularly well to places not named Carolina (losses in all their other road games). Russell Wilson has never faced a defense like this outside of San Francisco, where he played badly. Jay Cutler also hasn't fared well against great defenses, but he doesn't have to do much in this one.
Seahawks 13 Bears 23 (CHI -3.5)
Minnesota Vikings (6-5) @ Green Bay Packers (7-4) (GB -9)
This is a high line for a team that, outside of their shock blowout win over Houston, hasn't looked too convincing in winning any of their games. They are still listing a bunch of people as questionable for the game. It is hard to project who plays or not, but I actually don't think against a team like Minnesota it matters too much. The Packers are definitely a better team, but the Vikings have two things that can help them keep this one close. They have a great running game and ball control pass offense that can hold the ball (what they did last year in the home game against Green Bay), and they have a rejuvenated pass rush that can get to Rodgers. Will they be able to do both? I'm not sure. There are quite a few high lines, and a couple that I like less than this one, so I'll say the Packers don't cover.
Vikings 23 Packers 31 (MIN +9)
San Francisco 49ers (8-2-1) @ St. Louis Rams (4-6-1) (SF -7)
The Rams still haven't lost a divisional game, going 3-0-1 against their divisional opponents. They've won both their other two home divisional games. That all said, I like the 49ers here to win, but that number is what I'm worried about. The Rams have a defense that could give Kaepernick problems. I don't think Colin is the athlete (in terms of sack escapability) that Roethlisberger, Newton or even Vick in his day were, and the Rams could get to him. On the other side, the 49ers defense is on a roll right now, and I don't think Bradford will have anything close to a good game. Anyway, back to the number. The 7 scares me, so I will use, for the first time, my new fake power of buying half a point, and making the line San Francisco -7.5, and then taking the Rams.
Rams 20 49ers 27 (STL bought to +7.5)
Arizona Cardinals (4-7) @ New York Jets (4-7) (NYJ -4.5)
Are the Cardinals still starting Ryan Lindley? Yes, they are. Are the Jets still starting Tim Tebow? Yes, they are. This might be the worst combined QB game of the year. I can't imagine the Jets playing any worse than they did on Thanksgiving, and they get extra rest against a Mountain Time team coming East to play an early game. Combining that with them starting Ryan Lindley, and I think the Jets give the Cardinals, amazingly, their eighth straight loss.
Cardinals 17 Jets 24 (NYJ -4.5)
Carolina Panthers (3-8) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-10) (CAR -3)
The Chiefs have to win another game sooner or later, right? This can't just keep happening forever, them barely crossing 10 points at home game after game. Either way, I love the Panthers in this game. The Panthers, I'll say right now, are one of my picks to surprise and make the playoffs next year. Their string of losing close games is unsustainable, much like it was for the Texans from 2008-2010. That finally corrected itself, and this will too. Brian Burke's Advanced NFL Stats has them ranked #3 in the NFL by his metrics. Their defense is playing well now, and their offense is still good. They are better than the Chiefs, and this is a low number. That said, I will by half a point here, just to save myself from a field-goal push.
Panthers 31 Chiefs 17 (CAR bought to -2.5)
Indianapolis Colts (7-4) @ Detroit Lions (4-7) (DET -5)
I like way too many underdogs this week. I feel about the Lions much of the same way as I feel about the Panthers, in that they'll bounce back in 2013, as they are quite a bit better than their 4-7 record. Conversely, the Colts are worse than their 7-4 record. The Colts don't really need this game. If the take care of business home to Tennessee next week and at KC two weeks after that, they'll make the playoffs. The Colts don't match up well with the Lions, as they have no one to stop Calvin Johnson, and their interior line could be absolutely dominated by the Lions D-Line. The line is rather high, so I'll take the Colts to at least get to the number, but I doubt they win.
Colts 23 Lions 27 (IND +5)
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) @ Buffalo Bills (4-7) (BUF -5.5)
I don't want to dwell on this too much, but I like the Jaguars, yes, the Jaguars, to be competitive and cover a line on the road. The Jaguars are a different team with Chad Henne leading them. I'll have to say that the problem with Justin Blackmon was more about Gabbert than himself. The Jaguars have a decent team, especially in Mo-Jo Drew comes back to life, and the Bills, to me, aren't good enough to lay this many point. The Bills are technically still alive, so they have much more to play for, so I think they win, but for a rejuvenated Jaguars team, that number is too high.
Jaguars 17 Bills 20 (JAX +5.5)
New England Patriots (8-3) @ Miami Dolphins (5-6) (NE -7)
The Patriots won't score 50. That is all I know. The only reason why I am not too concerned about this spate of Patriots scoring is again, it has happened against the Rams, Bills, Colts and Jets. They have real defenses coming up. The Pats can clinch here, and I would think they would be motivated to end the AFC East race heading into their two game gauntlet of Houston and San Francisco back-to-back. One quirky streak, the last three times the Pats and Dolphins played in Miami in December, the Dolphins won each time (2004, 2006, 2009). I don't think that streak reaches four, though.
Patriots 34 Dolphins 23 (NE -7)
Houston Texans (10-1) @ Tennessee Titans (4-7) (HOU -6)
This line seems a little easy. The Titans were essentially eliminated after losing to the Jaguars last week, and now face the best team in the NFL coming off of 10 days rest. The Texans have won all but one of their games by at least 6 (the only exception was last week in Detroit). They'll win the game, especially with a massive game coming up, and I think they will cover. The Texans rush defense has been great the past two weeks, and I think they will be able to shut down Chris Johnson. Jake Locker hasn't looked the same since he has returned from his injury. The Texans also have an offense that is really starting to click right now, and I think it continues.
Texans 31 Titans 16 (HOU -6)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5) @ Denver Broncos (8-3) (DEN -7)
I'm surprised the line is this high, as the Buccaneers are everyone's favorite team right now, but it is high for a reason. The Broncos are a better team than the Buccaneers. Their biggest strength is their passing game, while the Buccaneers are historically bad at pass defense in terms of yards given up. The Buccaneers depend on their offense to keep them in games, and the Broncos defense is quietly a really good defense in 2012. I can't see the Buccaneers really giving the Broncos too much trouble in Denver, especially since they would love to show up and dominate after a slow game last week in Kansas City.
Buccaneers 17 Broncos 34 (DEN -7)
Cleveland Browns (3-8) @ Oakland Raiders (3-8) (CLE -1.5)
Now that Weeden is set to play, the Browns are the favorite. I don't disagree, because the Browns have played competitive in basically all of their games, while the Raiders have regressed to their 2003-2007 type performance. It is just sad thinking about this game. I would love picking the Raiders here, and there is a chance they show up, but the Browns defense is good enough to hold them down. McFadden might be back, but it probably won't matter.
Browns 23 Raiders 20 (CLE -1.5)
Cincinnati Bengals (6-5) @ San Diego Chargers (4-7) (CIN -1.5)
This seems like a low line, but I guess there isn't a lot of confidence in the Bengals traveling yet, while the Chargers are getting some credit for their close loss to the Ravens. The Chargers struggle to contain good receivers, and the Bengals have one of those, in AJ Green. The Bengals need this game way more than the Chargers, and they would love to take another step ahead of the Steelers before their game in three weeks. The line is low enough to make it close to a pick here.
Bengals 27 Chargers 24 (CIN -1.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5) @ Baltimore Ravens (9-2) (BAL -8.5)
Roethlisberger has been officially been ruled out, which makes this line really high and more interesting. Unpredictably, the Ravens beat a Leftwich-led Steelers team by three in Heinz Field two games ago. The Steelers really just can't compete with the Ravens without Ben, especially in M&T Bank Stadium. The last time the Steelers visited the place was Week 1 in 2011, and lost 35-7. The Ravens can essentially end the division right now, and make the Steelers path to the playoffs far more precarious, and I think they do. This is a great chance for the Ravens to just blowout an opponent for once, go to 10-2 and still defy all the people that say they aren't any good.
Steelers 10 Ravens 24 (BAL -8.5)
Philadelphia Eagles (3-8) @ Dallas Cowboys (5-6) (DAL -10)
I am still mad at NBC for sticking with this game. What complete garbage. I hope no one watches. I hope it is a complete blowout. That said, the Eagles offense at least looked competent against Carolina, who's defense really isn't any worse than the Cowboys. This line is really high for the Cowboys. I don't really trust the Cowboys with a line this high, but I find it hard to really depend on the Eagles. That said, big national game, I feel like the Eagles show up a little bit.
Eagles 24 Cowboys 30 (PHI +10)
New York Giants (7-4) @ Washington Redskins (5-6) (NYG -2.5)
I wish they could switch this game and the other primetime NFC East game. The Giants @ Redskins is a lot better matchup, and the return leg of a very good 1st Leg in MetLife a month ago. The Giants do need this game because their schedule going forward is tougher than Washington's. The Giants offense is clicking again, and seeing how they played against the Packers, their defense should show up as well. I like the Giants in this game, because these primetime games are the ones that they really show up for, especially on the raod.
Giants 27 Redskins 21 (NYG -2.5)
Enjoy the Games!!
Actually, before we do that, let's stop and first let me explain that after losing a couple of these picks because I didn't buy a half point or point, I'm going to start pretending to bet fake money. To make it easy, I'm placing 1,000 fake dollars on each game. I'm also pretending I have done that on every game so far, and I am using a fake system where I am laying an additional 20% to buy half a point, and an additional 30% to buy a full point. I am assuming no vig (hooray!!). So, this season, I have gone 98-75-3 so far through 11 weeks, and assuming no vig and 1,000 per bet, I am up a tidy $23,000 (BOOM!!). Starting this week, I'm going to keep track, and indicate if I am actually buying a half point or full point (which I would rarely do).
OK, now let's get to those picks.
New Orleans Saints (5-6) @ Atlanta Falcons (10-1) (ATL -3)
If the Saints were a little better, this might have been the best TNF game of the year. Instead, the Saints come in after a harrowing loss, while the Falcons are coming in slightly banged up, with Asante Samuel in doubt. Anyway, the game is probably more meaningful for the Saints who have some sliver of a Wild Card hope at this point, but the Falcons would love to finally get a win in this rivalry again. To me, this line is really low. The Falcons are definitely not as good as their record, but the Saints aren't exactly better than a .500 type team. Other than their close win against the Falcons, they've beaten zero good teams this season, and the last two times they played a good team, they lost by double digits (@DEN, vs. SF). This line essentially means that Vegas sees the teams as equals (three point bump for the home Falcons), and I completely disagree.
Saints 24 Falcons 31 (ATL -3)
Seattle Seahawks (6-5) @ Chicago Bears (8-3) (CHI -3.5)
Another line that seems staggeringly low. The Bears, in which Jay Cutler played the whole game, are 8-1, and have given up 20 or more points just twice (and both needed D/ST TDs to get there). The Seahawks don't travel particularly well to places not named Carolina (losses in all their other road games). Russell Wilson has never faced a defense like this outside of San Francisco, where he played badly. Jay Cutler also hasn't fared well against great defenses, but he doesn't have to do much in this one.
Seahawks 13 Bears 23 (CHI -3.5)
Minnesota Vikings (6-5) @ Green Bay Packers (7-4) (GB -9)
This is a high line for a team that, outside of their shock blowout win over Houston, hasn't looked too convincing in winning any of their games. They are still listing a bunch of people as questionable for the game. It is hard to project who plays or not, but I actually don't think against a team like Minnesota it matters too much. The Packers are definitely a better team, but the Vikings have two things that can help them keep this one close. They have a great running game and ball control pass offense that can hold the ball (what they did last year in the home game against Green Bay), and they have a rejuvenated pass rush that can get to Rodgers. Will they be able to do both? I'm not sure. There are quite a few high lines, and a couple that I like less than this one, so I'll say the Packers don't cover.
Vikings 23 Packers 31 (MIN +9)
San Francisco 49ers (8-2-1) @ St. Louis Rams (4-6-1) (SF -7)
The Rams still haven't lost a divisional game, going 3-0-1 against their divisional opponents. They've won both their other two home divisional games. That all said, I like the 49ers here to win, but that number is what I'm worried about. The Rams have a defense that could give Kaepernick problems. I don't think Colin is the athlete (in terms of sack escapability) that Roethlisberger, Newton or even Vick in his day were, and the Rams could get to him. On the other side, the 49ers defense is on a roll right now, and I don't think Bradford will have anything close to a good game. Anyway, back to the number. The 7 scares me, so I will use, for the first time, my new fake power of buying half a point, and making the line San Francisco -7.5, and then taking the Rams.
Rams 20 49ers 27 (STL bought to +7.5)
Arizona Cardinals (4-7) @ New York Jets (4-7) (NYJ -4.5)
Are the Cardinals still starting Ryan Lindley? Yes, they are. Are the Jets still starting Tim Tebow? Yes, they are. This might be the worst combined QB game of the year. I can't imagine the Jets playing any worse than they did on Thanksgiving, and they get extra rest against a Mountain Time team coming East to play an early game. Combining that with them starting Ryan Lindley, and I think the Jets give the Cardinals, amazingly, their eighth straight loss.
Cardinals 17 Jets 24 (NYJ -4.5)
Carolina Panthers (3-8) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-10) (CAR -3)
The Chiefs have to win another game sooner or later, right? This can't just keep happening forever, them barely crossing 10 points at home game after game. Either way, I love the Panthers in this game. The Panthers, I'll say right now, are one of my picks to surprise and make the playoffs next year. Their string of losing close games is unsustainable, much like it was for the Texans from 2008-2010. That finally corrected itself, and this will too. Brian Burke's Advanced NFL Stats has them ranked #3 in the NFL by his metrics. Their defense is playing well now, and their offense is still good. They are better than the Chiefs, and this is a low number. That said, I will by half a point here, just to save myself from a field-goal push.
Panthers 31 Chiefs 17 (CAR bought to -2.5)
Indianapolis Colts (7-4) @ Detroit Lions (4-7) (DET -5)
I like way too many underdogs this week. I feel about the Lions much of the same way as I feel about the Panthers, in that they'll bounce back in 2013, as they are quite a bit better than their 4-7 record. Conversely, the Colts are worse than their 7-4 record. The Colts don't really need this game. If the take care of business home to Tennessee next week and at KC two weeks after that, they'll make the playoffs. The Colts don't match up well with the Lions, as they have no one to stop Calvin Johnson, and their interior line could be absolutely dominated by the Lions D-Line. The line is rather high, so I'll take the Colts to at least get to the number, but I doubt they win.
Colts 23 Lions 27 (IND +5)
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) @ Buffalo Bills (4-7) (BUF -5.5)
I don't want to dwell on this too much, but I like the Jaguars, yes, the Jaguars, to be competitive and cover a line on the road. The Jaguars are a different team with Chad Henne leading them. I'll have to say that the problem with Justin Blackmon was more about Gabbert than himself. The Jaguars have a decent team, especially in Mo-Jo Drew comes back to life, and the Bills, to me, aren't good enough to lay this many point. The Bills are technically still alive, so they have much more to play for, so I think they win, but for a rejuvenated Jaguars team, that number is too high.
Jaguars 17 Bills 20 (JAX +5.5)
New England Patriots (8-3) @ Miami Dolphins (5-6) (NE -7)
The Patriots won't score 50. That is all I know. The only reason why I am not too concerned about this spate of Patriots scoring is again, it has happened against the Rams, Bills, Colts and Jets. They have real defenses coming up. The Pats can clinch here, and I would think they would be motivated to end the AFC East race heading into their two game gauntlet of Houston and San Francisco back-to-back. One quirky streak, the last three times the Pats and Dolphins played in Miami in December, the Dolphins won each time (2004, 2006, 2009). I don't think that streak reaches four, though.
Patriots 34 Dolphins 23 (NE -7)
Houston Texans (10-1) @ Tennessee Titans (4-7) (HOU -6)
This line seems a little easy. The Titans were essentially eliminated after losing to the Jaguars last week, and now face the best team in the NFL coming off of 10 days rest. The Texans have won all but one of their games by at least 6 (the only exception was last week in Detroit). They'll win the game, especially with a massive game coming up, and I think they will cover. The Texans rush defense has been great the past two weeks, and I think they will be able to shut down Chris Johnson. Jake Locker hasn't looked the same since he has returned from his injury. The Texans also have an offense that is really starting to click right now, and I think it continues.
Texans 31 Titans 16 (HOU -6)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5) @ Denver Broncos (8-3) (DEN -7)
I'm surprised the line is this high, as the Buccaneers are everyone's favorite team right now, but it is high for a reason. The Broncos are a better team than the Buccaneers. Their biggest strength is their passing game, while the Buccaneers are historically bad at pass defense in terms of yards given up. The Buccaneers depend on their offense to keep them in games, and the Broncos defense is quietly a really good defense in 2012. I can't see the Buccaneers really giving the Broncos too much trouble in Denver, especially since they would love to show up and dominate after a slow game last week in Kansas City.
Buccaneers 17 Broncos 34 (DEN -7)
Cleveland Browns (3-8) @ Oakland Raiders (3-8) (CLE -1.5)
Now that Weeden is set to play, the Browns are the favorite. I don't disagree, because the Browns have played competitive in basically all of their games, while the Raiders have regressed to their 2003-2007 type performance. It is just sad thinking about this game. I would love picking the Raiders here, and there is a chance they show up, but the Browns defense is good enough to hold them down. McFadden might be back, but it probably won't matter.
Browns 23 Raiders 20 (CLE -1.5)
Cincinnati Bengals (6-5) @ San Diego Chargers (4-7) (CIN -1.5)
This seems like a low line, but I guess there isn't a lot of confidence in the Bengals traveling yet, while the Chargers are getting some credit for their close loss to the Ravens. The Chargers struggle to contain good receivers, and the Bengals have one of those, in AJ Green. The Bengals need this game way more than the Chargers, and they would love to take another step ahead of the Steelers before their game in three weeks. The line is low enough to make it close to a pick here.
Bengals 27 Chargers 24 (CIN -1.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5) @ Baltimore Ravens (9-2) (BAL -8.5)
Roethlisberger has been officially been ruled out, which makes this line really high and more interesting. Unpredictably, the Ravens beat a Leftwich-led Steelers team by three in Heinz Field two games ago. The Steelers really just can't compete with the Ravens without Ben, especially in M&T Bank Stadium. The last time the Steelers visited the place was Week 1 in 2011, and lost 35-7. The Ravens can essentially end the division right now, and make the Steelers path to the playoffs far more precarious, and I think they do. This is a great chance for the Ravens to just blowout an opponent for once, go to 10-2 and still defy all the people that say they aren't any good.
Steelers 10 Ravens 24 (BAL -8.5)
Philadelphia Eagles (3-8) @ Dallas Cowboys (5-6) (DAL -10)
I am still mad at NBC for sticking with this game. What complete garbage. I hope no one watches. I hope it is a complete blowout. That said, the Eagles offense at least looked competent against Carolina, who's defense really isn't any worse than the Cowboys. This line is really high for the Cowboys. I don't really trust the Cowboys with a line this high, but I find it hard to really depend on the Eagles. That said, big national game, I feel like the Eagles show up a little bit.
Eagles 24 Cowboys 30 (PHI +10)
New York Giants (7-4) @ Washington Redskins (5-6) (NYG -2.5)
I wish they could switch this game and the other primetime NFC East game. The Giants @ Redskins is a lot better matchup, and the return leg of a very good 1st Leg in MetLife a month ago. The Giants do need this game because their schedule going forward is tougher than Washington's. The Giants offense is clicking again, and seeing how they played against the Packers, their defense should show up as well. I like the Giants in this game, because these primetime games are the ones that they really show up for, especially on the raod.
Giants 27 Redskins 21 (NYG -2.5)
Enjoy the Games!!
