Looking Back at Last Week's Picks
Bills (-2.5) over Dolphins (CORRECT = 1-0) (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
Redskins (-3.5) over Eagles (CORRECT = 2-0)
Lions (+3) over Packers (WRONG = 2-1)
Cardinals (+9.5) over Falcons (CORRECT = 3-1)
Panthers (+1) over Buccaneers (WRONG = 3-2) (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Browns (+8) over Cowboys (CORRECT = 4-2)
Jets (+3) over Rams (CORRECT = 5-2)
Jaguars (+15) over Texans (CORRECT = 6-2)
Bengals (-3) over Chiefs (CORRECT = 7-2)
Raiders (+4.5) over Saints (WRONG = 7-3)
Broncos (-7.5) over Chargers (WRONG = 7-4)
Patriots (-9.5) over Colts (CORRECT = 8-4)
Ravens (-3.5) over Steelers (WRONG = 8-5)
Bears (+7) over 49ers (WRONG = 8-6)
Week 11: 8-6 (LOCK: 1-0; UPSET: 0-1)
Year-to-Date: 87-70-3 (LOCK: 9-2; UPSET: 8-3)
Best Picks:
Power Rankings
32.) Kansas City Chiefs (1-9 = 152-284)
Twenty-Point loss at home to the Bengals might be the new low-point for the Chiefs, who are having an epic collapse. Now is where I will mention that the Chiefs were a really trendy preseason pick in the AFC West, despite still employing Romeo Crennel and Matt Cassel.
31.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9 = 164-289)
I move them up after a nice performance, and a breakout game for Justin Blackmon. Chad Henne once again showed just how epically awful Blaine Gabbert is, even if Henne's big game was a little flukey. The continued abhorrent play of that defense is just amazing, though.
30.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-7 = 162-252)
So, I guess Michael Vick should get some credit, because at least he wasn't THAT bad. The defense is just atrocious, furthering the idea that firing Juan Castillo was a ridiculous short-sighted move. The Andy Reid era is over, but that isn't going to be a magical panacea for all of the Eagles problems.
29.) Carolina Panthers (2-8 = 184-243)
How exactly did they blow that game? The Panthers were one out of four painful wrong picks (along with San Diego's backdoor cover, the Ravens winning by 3 as 3.5 favorites, and the Packers getting that garbage Field Goal to cover), and the one where I have no idea how it happened as I was watching RedZone which didn't really show much of that game. Anyway, another failed close game for the Panthers.
28.) Cleveland Browns (2-8 = 189-234)
Tough loss made possible by some shady penalties for the Cowboys, but the Browns defense was, for the most part, fantastic, covering up for not having Joe Haden (who was really missed) with insane pressure on Romo. The Browns were even decent on offense. I still feel like this ownership change (and GM change) is coming at a bad time, as the corp of the Browns isn't all that bad.
27.) St. Louis Rams (3-6-1 = 174-237)
Remember when they were 3-2? Well, three disastrous home losses and a tie later, we have the Rams exactly where they were so many times since the GSOT era ended: in last place in the AFC West.
26.) Miami Dolphins (4-6 = 187-205)
Remember when they were 4-3 heading into a game with the Colts for the right to get a leg up in the race for 5/6th in the AFC? Well, that loss seems to have absolutely crushed the Dolphins in every way, as they've lost two more after that, including a sullen loss in Buffalo.
25.) Oakland Raiders (3-7 = 208-322)
So many turnovers are ruining so many decent offensive performances. This season might even be more aggravating as a Raiders backer than either 2010 or 2011, where some close losses cost the Raiders a chance at the playoffs.
24.) Tennessee Titans (4-6 = 219-311)
I'm still stunned they are 4-6, and they have a good chance to get to 5-6 heading into their game against Houston. The Titans aren't dead yet, but they really should be, and if they do finagle their way into a Wild Card spot, we could be in for an epic beatdown in January.
23.) Buffalo Bills (4-6 = 230-299)
If Fitzpatrick just made a better throw at the end of the Pats game, the Bills would be 5-5 right now and purely in the mix. It would also make their game against Indy this week all the more interesting. Anyway, it still is interesting, but this is their season this week.
22.) Arizona Cardinals (4-6 = 163-196)
That offense is so bad, while that defense is so good. The Cardinals definitely need to fix the o-line, but they really, really, really need to get a QB, and soon if Ken Whisenhunt wants to be coaching in 2014. The Cardinals pass defense is still really, really good.
21.) Washington Redskins (4-6 = 257-254)
Nice game for RGIII. Actually, great game for RGIII, but the Eagles defense left guys way, way, way too open yesterday. What was more impressive was their defense really played well against the Eagles, limiting the receivers and playing very good coverage. Their defense has been really surprising after Orakpo and Kerrigan went out.
20.) San Diego Chargers (4-6 = 232-221)
Another bad game, cosmetically made better by a late TD to cover. Anyway, that offense is just staggering in its inability to replace their o-lineman for yore. It is now obvious that Norv is going to be gone, but AJ Smith better be gone as well.
19.) New York Jets (4-6 = 202-241)
With that win, they've made the Thanksgiving game a little more interesting (the Pats losing Gronk helps in that capacity as well). It is amazing how good the Jets defense can look against mediocre offenses, but looks lost against good ones. The Jets usually play New England well, but in the Rex Ryan era, the 2nd of the two meetings has been a Pats blowout each time (other than the 3rd meeting in 2010... what a GLORIOUS day).
18.) Dallas Cowboys (5-5 = 221-224)
I haven't seen protection that bad since the Eagles on MNF against New Orleans. The Cowboys showed some gumption coming back in the game, but they should absolutely not be in that situation against a team like Cleveland. They have a chance in this division, but they need to stomp these bad teams.
17.) Detroit Lions (4-6 = 236-246)
Tough, tough loss, but that is all on their offense. The Lions turned the ball over way too much. For the 2nd straight year, the Lions defense held the Packers offense at bay in Detroit, but their offense wasn't able to score enough against a bad Packers defense. Had they just gotten three more yards on their drive that ended to make it 20-14, they would have most likely won.
16.) Indianapolis Colts (6-4 = 210-260)
That was a "welcome to the NFL" moment for the Colts, and for Andrew Luck, who looked a little overwhelmed trying to keep up with the Patriots machine. The Colts still have a one game lead on the conference (and the Bengals have five conference losses, to the Colts three), but they aren't in the clear yet. They have to get past that performance and they have a chance, with a seemingly easy game at home against Buffalo coming up.
15.) New Orleans Saints (5-5 = 287-273)
The Saints, again, did this almost exactly in 2007, starting 0-4 and then climbing back. I have a feeling that this year won't end up like that year (7-9), but I still don't think they'll be able to climb back into the playoffs. What helps them is just three conference losses, but their schedule coming up gets a lot harder than most of the teams they just beat (SD, PHI, OAK).
14.) Cincinnati Bengals (5-5 = 248-237)
I still can't believe that if not for a still unexplainable four-game losing streak, there would be a good chance that the AFC returns ALL SIX playoff teams. It could still happen. They impressed me by really taking care of business in KC. The Chiefs were coming off of a mini-bye, and the Bengals had already dropped similar games (Cleveland), but they manned up and just pounded KC.
13.) Minnesota Vikings (6-4 = 238-221)
Just when you think they are dead, they rise back. The Vikings are still in good position for the #6 seed (as of now, behind SEA due to a h2h loss), but their schedule becomes real now. They still have two games with Chicago and two with Green Bay to come. If they can scramble up two wins out of those two games, they have a shot. Still a year to build off of, though.
12.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4 = 287-230)
I continue to be wrong about the Buccaneers (picked Carolina), but they definitely did not deserve that game. Josh Freeman fell back to earth, but he showed some of the late-game resiliency that made the 2010 Bucs the most unimpressive 10-6 team ever. They still have a good chance for the #6 seed, and unbelievably, if they beat the Falcons, maybe even the division (but let's not get greedy).
11.) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4 = 217-190)
The Steelers, for really the third time in the modern Steelers-Ravens rivalry (born in 2008 - another reason to love that season), lost by three points to Baltimore without Big Ben. In each game, you left thinking the Steelers were better (one of them was an OT loss with Dennis Dixon as the QB), but all that matters is they still lost. They definitely played competently, though, and other than the return leg in Baltimore, they should be able to tread water till Ben gets back.
10.) Seattle Seahawks (6-4 = 198-161)
They return to action this week having seen their Wild Card lead disappear, but the great news for them is that the Lions (who beat them) lost. The division is probably out of reach by now with the 49ers win, but the Seahawks still have a ton to play for. What they really need is to get Marshawn Lynch going again after a couple of so-so games.
9.) New York Giants (6-4 = 267-216)
I'll stick with them here for now, but the Giants need to show up. Their schedule is still really tough (GB, @WAS, vs NO, @ATL, @BAL all still left), but they have to talent to manage it. They might rue their loss to Philly, which for now gives the Cowboys a tiebreaker on Division Record, but if they just do what they are capable of, it won't matter much. Eli Manning's arm better have as much 'pop' as he says it does because he'll need to outgun three good offenses in the next three weeks.
8.) Baltimore Ravens (8-2 = 267-206)
They have a chance to be one of the most uninspiring, underwhelming 12-4 teams of all time. Their schedule is pretty easy, especially with the Ben injury (only two tough games are DEN and NYG back-to-back, but both are at home), but they don't really inspire any confidence at all against good defenses. If the Ravens are lucky, they get the Colts in Round 1, can have their fun, and then meet their eventual demise in Denver, New England or Houston. You know, like what they did in 2009 and 2010.
7.) New England Patriots (7-3 = 358-223)
I have no issue with Belichick continuing to throw. Whatever. If he wants to risk injury, so be it. The argument about Gronk is that should he be playing Special Teams anyway? That is the real argument, and many teams do have their star players on ST duty. I wouldn't if I were a head coach, but whatever. It is unfortunate. That said, I doubt any team is crying for the Patriots bad luck. Namely, the Jets.
6.) Green Bay Packers (7-3 = 263-207)
Five straight wins have made their slow, plodding 2-3 start a distant memory. Of course, they still haven't come close to the offensive efficiency of 2011 (which was nearly impossible anyway). The Packers continue to have to throw short way too much with Jennings out and Nelson hobbling. The amazing thing, though, is their defense, despite losing Woodson and Clay Matthews, is continuing to play quite well. This is a slightly more offense-heavy version of the 2010 Packers, and that formula worked for them.
5.) Chicago Bears (7-3 = 249-165)
I thought about dropping them further, but since I believe Jay Cutler will be back next week (of course, I am basing this off of nothing other than the fact that most QBs don't miss more than one game for a concussion), I think they still have a strong chance to win the division. That Week 16 game at home against Green Bay will be gigantic, though. Week 16. Soldier Field. Cold. Packers and Bears? Sign me up right now.
4.) Denver Broncos (7-3 = 301-212)
You know a team is good when they beat their divisional rival who is playing for their life by 7, with a late TD in garbage time making it closer than that (and another TD coming off of a fluke pick-6) and that is considered a listless performance. You know your QB is good when he can go 25/42 for 270 yards and 3 TDs with 1 pick and that is his second WORST game of the season. The Broncos are one of the three most complete teams in the NFL (the other two rank #1 and #2), and they are still getting better.
3.) Atlanta Falcons (9-1 = 270-193)
I have no words. They are becoming exactly what the public thinks of them at this point. They continue to win regular season games with absolutely no force. They continue to, strangely, win games at home without playing well. Matt Ryan just threw five picks. Who knows, right now. As bad of an 8-2 as the Ravens are, the Falcons might be a worse 9-1.
2.) San Francisco 49ers (7-2-1 = 245-134)
Personally, I think they should go back to Alex Smith. It's not like Smith was playing badly before he got concussed. Conversely, in his last full game, Smith went 18-19 for 237 yards and 3 TDs in Arizona (not exactly a bad defense). Kaepernick was bad, but the Bears were playing a defense that reminded me a lot of the defense Pittsburgh played against Denver in the WC game last year. That said, I have never seen a more varied, inventive offense. Just imagine what San Francisco would be right now if they wooed Manning a little bit harder.
1.) Houston Texans (9-1 = 293-180)
Look, no team wins all of their 'wins' comfortably. I have heard about a dozen times in the past two days that there is no dominant team in the NFL this year. In a way, there isn't because there is no historically good team (like the '04 Pats, '05 Colts, '06 Chargers, '07 Pats, '11 Packers), but there are great teams, and Houston is one of them. They played bad in their loss, but outside of the '07 Pats, every team has lost, and played bad in it. They were taken to the wire by the Jaguars. The 2007 Pats were taken to the wire by AJ Feeley's Eagles and Kyle Boller's Ravens. It happens. No team can be firing on all cylinders every week. Hell, the Pats barely escaped Buffalo a week ago. The Texans are still really good, and best yet, Andre Johnson finally looks healthy.
Previewing This Week's Games
16.) Tennessee Titans (4-6) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) (1:00 - CBS)
15.) St. Louis Rams (3-6-1) @ Arizona Cardinals (4-6) (4:25 - FOX)
14.) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) @ Cleveland Browns (2-8) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it Division Games Shouldn't Be This Bad Sunday, with three division games that really have nothing going for them, other than seeing if the Steelers, on their 3rd string QB, can beat the Browns anyway.
13.) Seattle Seahawks (6-4) @ Miami Dolphins (4-6) (1:00 - CBS)
12.) Carolina Panthers (2-8) @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-7) (MNF - ESPN)
11.) Oakland Raiders (3-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals (5-5) (1:00 - CBS)
10.) Denver Broncos (7-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-9) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it Lazy Sunday. Four games, none with any real story other than the dual collapses of Carolina and Philadelphia. The Seahawks have a chance to show they aren't frauds on the road on the East Coast. Carson Palmer does return to Cincinnati, but since the Bengals have adequately replaced him, I don't think there is much hostility there. The Broncos also finally get their first shot at KC, in what could be another embarrassing Sunday in Arrowhead.
9.) Buffalo Bills (4-6) @ Indianapolis Colts (6-4) (1:00 - CBS)
8.) Minnesota Vikings (6-4) @ Chicago Bears (7-3) (1:00 - FOX)
7.) Baltimore Ravens (8-2) @ San Diego Chargers (4-6) (4:05 - CBS)
I call it Prove Yourself Sunday, with every game featuring things for each team to prove. The Bills want to prove that they are for real in their Wild Card push, and the Colts need to prove that what we saw in Gillette wasn't totally the real Colts. The Bears, hopefully with Cutler back, look to prove that they aren't going to collapse again, while the Vikings look to prove that they are back in the playoff race as they enter a BRUTAL stretch. The Ravens look to prove they can beat a legitimate QB on the road, while Philip Rivers looks to prove that he is still a legitimate QB.
6.) Houston Texans (9-1) @ Detroit Lions (4-6) (Thank. - CBS)
5.) Washington Redskins (4-6) @ Dallas Cowboys (5-5) (Thanks. - FOX)
4.) New York Jets (4-6) @ New England Patriots (7-3) (Thanks. - NBC)
I don't think there has been a better slate of Thanksgiving games in a while. Kudos to Scott Kacsmar for pointing this out, but this is the 4th time in 5 years the Lions are hosting a team with the NFL's best record (10-0 Titans in '08, 8-2 Patriots in '10, and 10-0 Packers in '11). The Redskins and Cowboys sets up for a really entertaining game with RGIII's first game in Dallas, and the nightcap means something after the Jets win in St. Louis, and has a chance of being competitive, with Gronkowski out (the one guy the Jets have never been able to cover) and it being a short week in MetLife.
3.) Atlanta Falcons (9-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4) (1:00 - FOX)
I'm stunned this is a big game, and although the division is still probably Atlanta's even with a loss (especially with a return leg still to play in Atlanta), but the Buccaneers are in a good position as far as the Wild Card is concerned, but with a trip to Denver looming, they need this game badly. The Falcons can make a statement by beating a media-darling team like the Bucs.
2.) Green Bay Packers (7-3) @ New York Giants (6-4) (SNF - NBC)
Last year, just one week later, the Giants (losers of three straight) barely lost to the Packers (10-0 at the time) 38-35 in MetLife. Well, here we go again. The Giants need this game, especially if Dallas beats the Redskins on Thanksgiving. The Packers also escaped against Detroit, and this is another tough test, one of the last few before a Week 16 showdown in Chicago. The Giants better show up after losing two straight before their bye. They have a while to prepare, to hear people throw dirt on them, and when that happens, they usually show up.
1.) San Francisco 49ers (7-2-1) @ New Orleans Saints (5-5) (4:25 - FOX)
The Saints are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, winners of three straight, but the 49ers are just as hot. Since losing badly to the Giants, they have won three of four (tying the other game). My gut tells me Harbaugh goes back to Alex Smith (remember, in his last full game, he went 18-29 against the Cardinals. This is also a rematch of last year's playoff classic, but the location (and all the advantages that gave the 49ers last January) changes. Will the result too?
Postseason Projections
AFC
1.) Houston Texans (13-3)
2.) Denver Broncos (13-3)
3.) Baltimore Ravens (12-4)
4.) New England Patriots (12-4)
5.) Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
6.) Indianapolis Colts (9-7)
NFC
1.) Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
2.) San Francisco 49ers (12-3-1)
3.) Chicago Bears (12-4)*
4.) New York Giants (10-6)
5.) Green Bay Packers (11-5)
6.) Seattle Seahawks (10-6)
* - Cutler comes back Sunday
Bills (-2.5) over Dolphins (CORRECT = 1-0) (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
Redskins (-3.5) over Eagles (CORRECT = 2-0)
Lions (+3) over Packers (WRONG = 2-1)
Cardinals (+9.5) over Falcons (CORRECT = 3-1)
Panthers (+1) over Buccaneers (WRONG = 3-2) (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Browns (+8) over Cowboys (CORRECT = 4-2)
Jets (+3) over Rams (CORRECT = 5-2)
Jaguars (+15) over Texans (CORRECT = 6-2)
Bengals (-3) over Chiefs (CORRECT = 7-2)
Raiders (+4.5) over Saints (WRONG = 7-3)
Broncos (-7.5) over Chargers (WRONG = 7-4)
Patriots (-9.5) over Colts (CORRECT = 8-4)
Ravens (-3.5) over Steelers (WRONG = 8-5)
Bears (+7) over 49ers (WRONG = 8-6)
Week 11: 8-6 (LOCK: 1-0; UPSET: 0-1)
Year-to-Date: 87-70-3 (LOCK: 9-2; UPSET: 8-3)
Best Picks:
Power Rankings
32.) Kansas City Chiefs (1-9 = 152-284)
Twenty-Point loss at home to the Bengals might be the new low-point for the Chiefs, who are having an epic collapse. Now is where I will mention that the Chiefs were a really trendy preseason pick in the AFC West, despite still employing Romeo Crennel and Matt Cassel.
31.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9 = 164-289)
I move them up after a nice performance, and a breakout game for Justin Blackmon. Chad Henne once again showed just how epically awful Blaine Gabbert is, even if Henne's big game was a little flukey. The continued abhorrent play of that defense is just amazing, though.
30.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-7 = 162-252)
So, I guess Michael Vick should get some credit, because at least he wasn't THAT bad. The defense is just atrocious, furthering the idea that firing Juan Castillo was a ridiculous short-sighted move. The Andy Reid era is over, but that isn't going to be a magical panacea for all of the Eagles problems.
29.) Carolina Panthers (2-8 = 184-243)
How exactly did they blow that game? The Panthers were one out of four painful wrong picks (along with San Diego's backdoor cover, the Ravens winning by 3 as 3.5 favorites, and the Packers getting that garbage Field Goal to cover), and the one where I have no idea how it happened as I was watching RedZone which didn't really show much of that game. Anyway, another failed close game for the Panthers.
28.) Cleveland Browns (2-8 = 189-234)
Tough loss made possible by some shady penalties for the Cowboys, but the Browns defense was, for the most part, fantastic, covering up for not having Joe Haden (who was really missed) with insane pressure on Romo. The Browns were even decent on offense. I still feel like this ownership change (and GM change) is coming at a bad time, as the corp of the Browns isn't all that bad.
27.) St. Louis Rams (3-6-1 = 174-237)
Remember when they were 3-2? Well, three disastrous home losses and a tie later, we have the Rams exactly where they were so many times since the GSOT era ended: in last place in the AFC West.
26.) Miami Dolphins (4-6 = 187-205)
Remember when they were 4-3 heading into a game with the Colts for the right to get a leg up in the race for 5/6th in the AFC? Well, that loss seems to have absolutely crushed the Dolphins in every way, as they've lost two more after that, including a sullen loss in Buffalo.
25.) Oakland Raiders (3-7 = 208-322)
So many turnovers are ruining so many decent offensive performances. This season might even be more aggravating as a Raiders backer than either 2010 or 2011, where some close losses cost the Raiders a chance at the playoffs.
24.) Tennessee Titans (4-6 = 219-311)
I'm still stunned they are 4-6, and they have a good chance to get to 5-6 heading into their game against Houston. The Titans aren't dead yet, but they really should be, and if they do finagle their way into a Wild Card spot, we could be in for an epic beatdown in January.
23.) Buffalo Bills (4-6 = 230-299)
If Fitzpatrick just made a better throw at the end of the Pats game, the Bills would be 5-5 right now and purely in the mix. It would also make their game against Indy this week all the more interesting. Anyway, it still is interesting, but this is their season this week.
22.) Arizona Cardinals (4-6 = 163-196)
That offense is so bad, while that defense is so good. The Cardinals definitely need to fix the o-line, but they really, really, really need to get a QB, and soon if Ken Whisenhunt wants to be coaching in 2014. The Cardinals pass defense is still really, really good.
21.) Washington Redskins (4-6 = 257-254)
Nice game for RGIII. Actually, great game for RGIII, but the Eagles defense left guys way, way, way too open yesterday. What was more impressive was their defense really played well against the Eagles, limiting the receivers and playing very good coverage. Their defense has been really surprising after Orakpo and Kerrigan went out.
20.) San Diego Chargers (4-6 = 232-221)
Another bad game, cosmetically made better by a late TD to cover. Anyway, that offense is just staggering in its inability to replace their o-lineman for yore. It is now obvious that Norv is going to be gone, but AJ Smith better be gone as well.
19.) New York Jets (4-6 = 202-241)
With that win, they've made the Thanksgiving game a little more interesting (the Pats losing Gronk helps in that capacity as well). It is amazing how good the Jets defense can look against mediocre offenses, but looks lost against good ones. The Jets usually play New England well, but in the Rex Ryan era, the 2nd of the two meetings has been a Pats blowout each time (other than the 3rd meeting in 2010... what a GLORIOUS day).
18.) Dallas Cowboys (5-5 = 221-224)
I haven't seen protection that bad since the Eagles on MNF against New Orleans. The Cowboys showed some gumption coming back in the game, but they should absolutely not be in that situation against a team like Cleveland. They have a chance in this division, but they need to stomp these bad teams.
17.) Detroit Lions (4-6 = 236-246)
Tough, tough loss, but that is all on their offense. The Lions turned the ball over way too much. For the 2nd straight year, the Lions defense held the Packers offense at bay in Detroit, but their offense wasn't able to score enough against a bad Packers defense. Had they just gotten three more yards on their drive that ended to make it 20-14, they would have most likely won.
16.) Indianapolis Colts (6-4 = 210-260)
That was a "welcome to the NFL" moment for the Colts, and for Andrew Luck, who looked a little overwhelmed trying to keep up with the Patriots machine. The Colts still have a one game lead on the conference (and the Bengals have five conference losses, to the Colts three), but they aren't in the clear yet. They have to get past that performance and they have a chance, with a seemingly easy game at home against Buffalo coming up.
15.) New Orleans Saints (5-5 = 287-273)
The Saints, again, did this almost exactly in 2007, starting 0-4 and then climbing back. I have a feeling that this year won't end up like that year (7-9), but I still don't think they'll be able to climb back into the playoffs. What helps them is just three conference losses, but their schedule coming up gets a lot harder than most of the teams they just beat (SD, PHI, OAK).
14.) Cincinnati Bengals (5-5 = 248-237)
I still can't believe that if not for a still unexplainable four-game losing streak, there would be a good chance that the AFC returns ALL SIX playoff teams. It could still happen. They impressed me by really taking care of business in KC. The Chiefs were coming off of a mini-bye, and the Bengals had already dropped similar games (Cleveland), but they manned up and just pounded KC.
13.) Minnesota Vikings (6-4 = 238-221)
Just when you think they are dead, they rise back. The Vikings are still in good position for the #6 seed (as of now, behind SEA due to a h2h loss), but their schedule becomes real now. They still have two games with Chicago and two with Green Bay to come. If they can scramble up two wins out of those two games, they have a shot. Still a year to build off of, though.
12.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4 = 287-230)
I continue to be wrong about the Buccaneers (picked Carolina), but they definitely did not deserve that game. Josh Freeman fell back to earth, but he showed some of the late-game resiliency that made the 2010 Bucs the most unimpressive 10-6 team ever. They still have a good chance for the #6 seed, and unbelievably, if they beat the Falcons, maybe even the division (but let's not get greedy).
11.) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4 = 217-190)
The Steelers, for really the third time in the modern Steelers-Ravens rivalry (born in 2008 - another reason to love that season), lost by three points to Baltimore without Big Ben. In each game, you left thinking the Steelers were better (one of them was an OT loss with Dennis Dixon as the QB), but all that matters is they still lost. They definitely played competently, though, and other than the return leg in Baltimore, they should be able to tread water till Ben gets back.
10.) Seattle Seahawks (6-4 = 198-161)
They return to action this week having seen their Wild Card lead disappear, but the great news for them is that the Lions (who beat them) lost. The division is probably out of reach by now with the 49ers win, but the Seahawks still have a ton to play for. What they really need is to get Marshawn Lynch going again after a couple of so-so games.
9.) New York Giants (6-4 = 267-216)
I'll stick with them here for now, but the Giants need to show up. Their schedule is still really tough (GB, @WAS, vs NO, @ATL, @BAL all still left), but they have to talent to manage it. They might rue their loss to Philly, which for now gives the Cowboys a tiebreaker on Division Record, but if they just do what they are capable of, it won't matter much. Eli Manning's arm better have as much 'pop' as he says it does because he'll need to outgun three good offenses in the next three weeks.
8.) Baltimore Ravens (8-2 = 267-206)
They have a chance to be one of the most uninspiring, underwhelming 12-4 teams of all time. Their schedule is pretty easy, especially with the Ben injury (only two tough games are DEN and NYG back-to-back, but both are at home), but they don't really inspire any confidence at all against good defenses. If the Ravens are lucky, they get the Colts in Round 1, can have their fun, and then meet their eventual demise in Denver, New England or Houston. You know, like what they did in 2009 and 2010.
7.) New England Patriots (7-3 = 358-223)
I have no issue with Belichick continuing to throw. Whatever. If he wants to risk injury, so be it. The argument about Gronk is that should he be playing Special Teams anyway? That is the real argument, and many teams do have their star players on ST duty. I wouldn't if I were a head coach, but whatever. It is unfortunate. That said, I doubt any team is crying for the Patriots bad luck. Namely, the Jets.
6.) Green Bay Packers (7-3 = 263-207)
Five straight wins have made their slow, plodding 2-3 start a distant memory. Of course, they still haven't come close to the offensive efficiency of 2011 (which was nearly impossible anyway). The Packers continue to have to throw short way too much with Jennings out and Nelson hobbling. The amazing thing, though, is their defense, despite losing Woodson and Clay Matthews, is continuing to play quite well. This is a slightly more offense-heavy version of the 2010 Packers, and that formula worked for them.
5.) Chicago Bears (7-3 = 249-165)
I thought about dropping them further, but since I believe Jay Cutler will be back next week (of course, I am basing this off of nothing other than the fact that most QBs don't miss more than one game for a concussion), I think they still have a strong chance to win the division. That Week 16 game at home against Green Bay will be gigantic, though. Week 16. Soldier Field. Cold. Packers and Bears? Sign me up right now.
4.) Denver Broncos (7-3 = 301-212)
You know a team is good when they beat their divisional rival who is playing for their life by 7, with a late TD in garbage time making it closer than that (and another TD coming off of a fluke pick-6) and that is considered a listless performance. You know your QB is good when he can go 25/42 for 270 yards and 3 TDs with 1 pick and that is his second WORST game of the season. The Broncos are one of the three most complete teams in the NFL (the other two rank #1 and #2), and they are still getting better.
3.) Atlanta Falcons (9-1 = 270-193)
I have no words. They are becoming exactly what the public thinks of them at this point. They continue to win regular season games with absolutely no force. They continue to, strangely, win games at home without playing well. Matt Ryan just threw five picks. Who knows, right now. As bad of an 8-2 as the Ravens are, the Falcons might be a worse 9-1.
2.) San Francisco 49ers (7-2-1 = 245-134)
Personally, I think they should go back to Alex Smith. It's not like Smith was playing badly before he got concussed. Conversely, in his last full game, Smith went 18-19 for 237 yards and 3 TDs in Arizona (not exactly a bad defense). Kaepernick was bad, but the Bears were playing a defense that reminded me a lot of the defense Pittsburgh played against Denver in the WC game last year. That said, I have never seen a more varied, inventive offense. Just imagine what San Francisco would be right now if they wooed Manning a little bit harder.
1.) Houston Texans (9-1 = 293-180)
Look, no team wins all of their 'wins' comfortably. I have heard about a dozen times in the past two days that there is no dominant team in the NFL this year. In a way, there isn't because there is no historically good team (like the '04 Pats, '05 Colts, '06 Chargers, '07 Pats, '11 Packers), but there are great teams, and Houston is one of them. They played bad in their loss, but outside of the '07 Pats, every team has lost, and played bad in it. They were taken to the wire by the Jaguars. The 2007 Pats were taken to the wire by AJ Feeley's Eagles and Kyle Boller's Ravens. It happens. No team can be firing on all cylinders every week. Hell, the Pats barely escaped Buffalo a week ago. The Texans are still really good, and best yet, Andre Johnson finally looks healthy.
Previewing This Week's Games
16.) Tennessee Titans (4-6) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) (1:00 - CBS)
15.) St. Louis Rams (3-6-1) @ Arizona Cardinals (4-6) (4:25 - FOX)
14.) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) @ Cleveland Browns (2-8) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it Division Games Shouldn't Be This Bad Sunday, with three division games that really have nothing going for them, other than seeing if the Steelers, on their 3rd string QB, can beat the Browns anyway.
13.) Seattle Seahawks (6-4) @ Miami Dolphins (4-6) (1:00 - CBS)
12.) Carolina Panthers (2-8) @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-7) (MNF - ESPN)
11.) Oakland Raiders (3-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals (5-5) (1:00 - CBS)
10.) Denver Broncos (7-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-9) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it Lazy Sunday. Four games, none with any real story other than the dual collapses of Carolina and Philadelphia. The Seahawks have a chance to show they aren't frauds on the road on the East Coast. Carson Palmer does return to Cincinnati, but since the Bengals have adequately replaced him, I don't think there is much hostility there. The Broncos also finally get their first shot at KC, in what could be another embarrassing Sunday in Arrowhead.
9.) Buffalo Bills (4-6) @ Indianapolis Colts (6-4) (1:00 - CBS)
8.) Minnesota Vikings (6-4) @ Chicago Bears (7-3) (1:00 - FOX)
7.) Baltimore Ravens (8-2) @ San Diego Chargers (4-6) (4:05 - CBS)
I call it Prove Yourself Sunday, with every game featuring things for each team to prove. The Bills want to prove that they are for real in their Wild Card push, and the Colts need to prove that what we saw in Gillette wasn't totally the real Colts. The Bears, hopefully with Cutler back, look to prove that they aren't going to collapse again, while the Vikings look to prove that they are back in the playoff race as they enter a BRUTAL stretch. The Ravens look to prove they can beat a legitimate QB on the road, while Philip Rivers looks to prove that he is still a legitimate QB.
6.) Houston Texans (9-1) @ Detroit Lions (4-6) (Thank. - CBS)
5.) Washington Redskins (4-6) @ Dallas Cowboys (5-5) (Thanks. - FOX)
4.) New York Jets (4-6) @ New England Patriots (7-3) (Thanks. - NBC)
I don't think there has been a better slate of Thanksgiving games in a while. Kudos to Scott Kacsmar for pointing this out, but this is the 4th time in 5 years the Lions are hosting a team with the NFL's best record (10-0 Titans in '08, 8-2 Patriots in '10, and 10-0 Packers in '11). The Redskins and Cowboys sets up for a really entertaining game with RGIII's first game in Dallas, and the nightcap means something after the Jets win in St. Louis, and has a chance of being competitive, with Gronkowski out (the one guy the Jets have never been able to cover) and it being a short week in MetLife.
3.) Atlanta Falcons (9-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4) (1:00 - FOX)
I'm stunned this is a big game, and although the division is still probably Atlanta's even with a loss (especially with a return leg still to play in Atlanta), but the Buccaneers are in a good position as far as the Wild Card is concerned, but with a trip to Denver looming, they need this game badly. The Falcons can make a statement by beating a media-darling team like the Bucs.
2.) Green Bay Packers (7-3) @ New York Giants (6-4) (SNF - NBC)
Last year, just one week later, the Giants (losers of three straight) barely lost to the Packers (10-0 at the time) 38-35 in MetLife. Well, here we go again. The Giants need this game, especially if Dallas beats the Redskins on Thanksgiving. The Packers also escaped against Detroit, and this is another tough test, one of the last few before a Week 16 showdown in Chicago. The Giants better show up after losing two straight before their bye. They have a while to prepare, to hear people throw dirt on them, and when that happens, they usually show up.
1.) San Francisco 49ers (7-2-1) @ New Orleans Saints (5-5) (4:25 - FOX)
The Saints are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, winners of three straight, but the 49ers are just as hot. Since losing badly to the Giants, they have won three of four (tying the other game). My gut tells me Harbaugh goes back to Alex Smith (remember, in his last full game, he went 18-29 against the Cardinals. This is also a rematch of last year's playoff classic, but the location (and all the advantages that gave the 49ers last January) changes. Will the result too?
Postseason Projections
AFC
1.) Houston Texans (13-3)
2.) Denver Broncos (13-3)
3.) Baltimore Ravens (12-4)
4.) New England Patriots (12-4)
5.) Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
6.) Indianapolis Colts (9-7)
NFC
1.) Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
2.) San Francisco 49ers (12-3-1)
3.) Chicago Bears (12-4)*
4.) New York Giants (10-6)
5.) Green Bay Packers (11-5)
6.) Seattle Seahawks (10-6)
* - Cutler comes back Sunday
