Finally a good week. If only I actually did "buy a half point", I could have avoided two pushes, but without actually putting (fake) money, "buying a point" makes no sense in this situation. Anyway, a good week nonetheless.
Looking Back at Last Week's Picks
Texans (-3) over Lions (PUSH = 0-0-1)
Redskins (+3) over Cowboys (CORRECT = 1-0-1) (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Patriots (-7) over Jets (CORRECT = 2-0-1)
Bengals (-8) over Raiders (CORRECT = 3-0-1)
Colts (-2) over Bills (CORRECT = 4-0-1)
Steelers (pick) over Browns (WRONG = 4-1-1)
Broncos (-10) over Chiefs (WRONG = 4-2-1)
Jaguars (+3) over Titans (CORRECT = 5-2-1)
Bears (-6.5) over Vikings (CORRECT = 6-2-1) (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
Falcons (-1) over Buccaneers (PUSH = 6-2-2)
Dolphins (+3) over Seahawks (CORRECT = 7-2-2)
Chargers (+1) over Ravens (WRONG = 7-3-2)
Rams (+2.5) over Cardinals (CORRECT = 8-3-2)
49ers (-1) over Saints (CORRECT = 9-3-2)
Giants (-3) over Packers (CORRECT = 10-3-2)
Panthers (-2) over Eagles (CORRECT = 11-3-2)
Week 12: 11-3-2 (LOCK: 1-0; UPSET: 1-0)
Year-to-Date: 98-73-5 (LOCK: 10-2; UPSET: 9-3)
Best Picks: Nothing exact. Closest was picking the Jaguars to beat the Titans 24-20 (they won 24-19). Other close ones were picking the Colts to win 23-17 (they won 20-13), picking the Falcons to win 30-23 (they won 24-23) or picking the 49ers to beat the Saints 27-20 (they won 31-21).
Power Rankings
Their Team MVP: The College Scouting Director Planning the 2013 Draft
32.) Kansas City Chiefs (1-10 = 161-301)
I still love how bad the Chiefs offense is, and it isn't even Matt Cassel's fault anymore. Whatever happened to breakout candidate Jonathan Baldwin? Do people realize that the Chiefs QBs have thrown 6 TDs and 16 INTs this season? Do people remember just how many people picked the Chiefs to win the AFC West this year? 4 out of ESPN's 16 experts picked them, which is four too many.
31.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-8 = 184-282)
They have a realistic chance of finishing the season 3-13, with road games still against Dallas, Tampa and the Giants sandwhiching home games against wild-card hopefuls Cincinnati and Washington. Other than the Giants potentially resting in Week 17, all of those teams are both better than the Eagles and have something to play for. All in all, this could be a sad end to the Andy Reid era.
30.) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9 = 188-308)
It is amazing how competent the Jaguars are when Blaine Gabbert is not playing. Chad Henne continues to be a respectable NFL QB, a guy who is still better than Mark Sanchez (something I claimed back in mid-2009). The Jaguars defense finally showed up as well. Word is Maurice Jones-Drew might finally be resurrected this week, which is nice to know.
29.) Oakland Raiders (3-8 = 218-356)
That defense continues to be just atrocious, and the lack of running options is finally catching up to that offense. Darren McFadden might be back next week, but it won't matter much. Totally random thought, but how does Marcel Reese continue to get open all the time as a passing threat? Barely anyone on that Raiders team can do anything, yet he somehow finds a way to contribute each week.
28.) Tennessee Titans (4-7 = 238-335)
The Titans had a slim chance at the playoffs, but that door slammed shut. They probably aren't the worst four win team by as great a margin, but they still have two more wins than they should have. They can still play spoiler though, with games against Houston and Indianapolis left. I'll curse them if they derail Indy's shot at the playoffs with a garbage win in two weeks.
27.) New York Jets (4-7 = 221-290)
Three TDs allowed in 52 seconds?? There are no words....
26.) Buffalo Bills (4-7 = 243-319)
That was a decent performance in Indy, but like so many of the Colts opponents this year, they couldn't finish drives. I have no idea how a team could get over 6 yards per play and get decent field position, yet score just 13 points. Good to see that Mario Williams isn't going to totally check out after getting that contract, as he was a terror for the first time in a while.
25.) Carolina Panthers (3-8 = 214-265)
The Panthers have a chance to pick up some wins, and save Ron Rivera's job in the process. Their toughest game left is a home date against the Falcons, while they have trips to KC, San Diego and New Orleans, and another home game against the Raiders. 6-10 is not out of the question, which would probably leave the Panthers pretty happy, considering how disastrous much of this season has been.
24.) Arizona Cardinals (4-7 = 180-227)
Seven straight losses, a third straight QB. I still believe Ken Whisenhunt is a good coach, and if a team has a QB, he would be a great hire (hello, San Diego??), but here's just a list of the people that have attempted to take hold of the QB job since Kurt Warner left: Kevin Kob, John Skelton, Derek Anderson, Max Hall, Ryan Lindley.
23.) Miami Dolphins (5-6 = 211-226)
They won the game and kept their playoff hopes alive, but can we talk about that whole sprinkler incident. The Dolphins definitely played better after it. Are we sure that wasn't planned? Why so quick to assume it was a mistake by the groundscrew?
22.) Cleveland Browns (3-8 = 209-248)
I would love to see some work done on how the team that underperforms their pythagoreon projected win total and how they do the next year. I feel like I have seen such and usually that team improves. Case in point was the 2008 Wildcat Dolphins, who were much better than the 1-15 they were in 2007. Anyway, the Browns are a fully decent team. Too bad they are going in a new direction in terms of the GM, and almost inevitably, the coach.
21.) Dallas Cowboys (5-6 = 242-262)
I've never seen a team that I'm more confident will make a game out of a 20-point deficit, but also equally confident in their ability to still lose that game. That was so expected. Romo piles up big numbers after playing like garbage, but they still lose anyway. It was just extra special that once again it happened at home, and once again in primetime.
20.) San Diego Chargers (4-7 = 245-237)
Despite my thinking that Ray Rice was down before the first-down line, they don't even deserve the real call in that case. How they continue to search, and find, new ways to lose games is mesmerizing. The Chargers should have won that game, and the Broncos and Patriots fans are cursing them for not finishing the damn job.
19.) Detroit Lions (4-7 = 267-280)
Despite their record, I feel like they can still beat any team at any time. Calvin Johnson is still unstoppable (outside of the red zone), and that defense can dominate any game, but they just aren't able to close it out. The Lions are better than their record, and they are still young at most positions. I hope there is no reactionary changes this offseason in Detroit.
18.) St. Louis Rams (4-6-1 = 205-254)
Sam Bradford continues to have the most impressive under-50% completion percentage games I have ever seen (vs and @ ARZ). Janoris Jenkins had another good game, and the Rams continue to be undefeated in that division (3-0-1). The Rams are still young, and Fisher has a plan, but I don't know if Bradford can ever get good enough to make this a Super Bowl caliber team.
The Bad Good Team
17.) Indianapolis Colts (7-4 = 230-273)
I'm done putting them up high in the rankings purely because of their record. In the end, they still have a team that is good enough to beat any bad team in the NFL. They also have no way of beating good teams other than a mysterious, karmically affected game against Green Bay. Do you know what that reminds me of: the 2011 Cincinnati Bengals, a rookie-QB-led team that were 9-0 against non-playoff teams and 0-7 against playoff teams.
The Great NFC Wild Card Mess of 2012
16.) New Orleans Saints (5-6 = 308-304)
The Saints finally showed their true selves. They still have beaten one good team all year, which was a close win against Atlanta at home. In their last two big games outside of that, they were smacked around by Denver and San Francisco. The Saints have suffered so much on their o-line since last season and it showed yesterday.
15.) Washington Redskins (5-6 = 295-285)
RGIII alternates from great games to bad games way more than Luck (who is consistently decent all the time), and last week was one of his great games. They have a huge game upcoming, where if they win they could have a shot at the NFC East, but it would be nice to see RGIII have a good game against a good defense and good pass rush.
14.) Minnesota Vikings (6-5 = 248-249)
That was Week 1 of a six-game jaunt through Hell for the Vikings, as they still have another game against the Bears, and two against Green Bay, and a trip to Houston included as well. The Vikings were competent in that game, but turnovers screwed them. The Bears did expose again how limited Christian Ponder is, a fact that may be exposed quite a few more times.
13.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5 = 310-254)
Tough loss there, and they have a huge trip to Denver coming up, a team they don't really match up with all. The Buccaneers are still in the thick of the hunt, especially if they can beat the Saints in their remaining game, but the Buccaneers need to play better defensively. Teams just pass over them at will, and they will go nowhere long term until they fix it.
12.) Seattle Seahawks (6-5 = 219-185)
They will rue that loss, as well as the loss earlier to Detroit, and it could easily keep them out of the playoffs. They still have the h2h win over the Packers, and that was a non-conference loss, but the Seahawks are now on the tightrope, especially if they lose Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner for four games. Russell Wilson, and the rest of that defense, is still playing well enough to nab that last spot, though.
2 Teams, 1 Spot: A Rivalry Renewed
11.) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5 = 231-210)
Before the Ravens Rebirth under Harbaugh/Flacco, the Steelers and Bengals were a nasty rivalry. The intensity isn't there, but the Steelers and Bengals are rivals for that last playoff spot. The Steelers probably won't win even if Ben is playing, but if Roethlisberger is there for the last four games, I like their chances to get that final spot, and be a potentially dangerous team in Wild Card Weekend.
10.) Cincinnati Bengals (6-5 = 282-247)
Has there been a more Jekyll and Hyde than the Bengals this year? They had a three game losing streak to Miami, Cleveland and Pittsburgh, but then dominated the Giants, Chiefs and Raiders the last two weeks. The Bengals have the talent, and the opening. It really all comes down to that Week 16 game in Cincinnati, but they have a shot to take care of business these next three weeks to make that game a lot more comfortable.
The Super Bowl Players
9.) Green Bay Packers (7-4 = 273-245)
That was the worst game in the Aaron Rodgers era. The only thing that comes close is a 29-51 loss to New Orleans in 2008 in the Superdome. It was clear they couldn't block, but even when teh Giants rushed three, Rodgers had nothing downfield. The injuries might be catching up on the offense. They should start to get guys back, and they could do what they did in 2010, but that offense just isn't the same.
8.) Baltimore Ravens (9-2 = 283-219)
How are they 10-2? You know what they remind me of? A slightly more offense heavy and slightly less defense heavy version of the 2003 Patriots, who started 2-2 and then rolled off 12 straight wins despite rarely looking that dominant. The Ravens still don't have a fully healthy Suggs or Ngata, yet they continue to play good enough defense. Also, converting a 4th and 29 is the type of bullshit the 2001-2004 Patriots used to pull all the time.
7.) New York Giants (7-4 = 305-226)
Is there any team that can get up for games like the Giants? I can't think of any good comparison in any other sport, really, for a team that is never that great in the regular season, but just dominant in these types of games. That said, the Packers were the perfect matchup, a team missing o-lineman, with no running game, and little in the secondary. That was the recipe for a blowout, yet it was still impressive.
6.) Atlanta Falcons (10-1 = 294-216)
Just remember, if Matt Bryant hits his two field goals, they win a little more comfortably. They definitely looked like the better team on Sunday, and that was a big game, going to a good divisional rival and beating them. The Falcons still have the inside track at the #1 seed, but they have another chance to quiet some more doubters two weeks from now against the Giants.
5.) Denver Broncos (8-3 = 318-221)
I'm dropping them a bit after a slow performance against Kansas City, but if Matt Prater hits two makeable field goals, it is 23-9, which is a little better (plus, a cover). The Broncos were able to win a game on the road with their 'C' game, which is not a bad thing, but that game better get better against better competition, which they'll face in the playoffs.
4.) New England Patriots (8-3 = 407-244)
I'm moving them up after two straight blowouts, but they aren't as good as the team they looked like the past two wees, just like they weren't as bad as the team that nearly lost to the Bills the week before that. Tom Brady is in another interception-free streak, like 2010, which hopefully will end in a shriek-inducing pick on a screen-pass, much like 2010.
3.) Chicago Bears (8-3 = 277-175)
It is astounding what a different Jay Cutler makes to that team. He isn't a great QB, but if anyone, and I mean you Jason Whitlock, tries to assert that Cutler isn't tough, they should lose their job. The guy is behind a pathetic o-line, and makes the Bears offense competent. Good to see that defense back to their turnover-creating ways. Cutler's injury lost their chance at a bye, but they still have their division lead back. They need to hold onto that thing.
2.) San Francisco 49ers (8-2-1 = 276-155)
I don't know if I'm totally wrong about the Kaepernick move yet, but the 49ers aren't any worse with him. My concern is he has a bad game in the playoffs, but Alex Smith could also have a bad game in the playoffs. What is good is that pass rush has heated up the last few weeks, outside of Aldon Smith, who has been great all year long. That is great for a team that is still in an offense-heavy conference.
1.) Houston Texans (10-1 = 327-211)
They played nearly 10 quarters of football in five days, and went 2-0. They have some of the best wins this year (beating Denver in Denver, killing Baltimore), and have had just one bad game. Andre Johnson is clearly healthy and dominant once again, and that offense just seems different now. They still have some challenges left, including what could be a huge game in New England in two weeks, but they are still in good position to win the #1 seed in the AFC.
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
16.) Carolina Panthers (3-8) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-10) (1:00 - FOX)
15.) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) @ Buffalo Bills (4-7) (1:00 - CBS)
14.) Arizona Cardinals (4-7) @ New York Jets (4-7) (1:00 - FOX)
13.) Cleveland Browns (3-8) @ Oakland Raiders (3-8) (4:25 - CBS)
I call it "Who Gives a Shit" Sunday. These are the only three games with absolutely no playoff implications (one coming up has minimal). None of these teams are going anywhere. It is good, actually, in a way that they have to play each other, instead of ruining other games.
12.) Houston Texans (10-1) @ Tennessee Titans (4-7) (1:00 - CBS)
11.) San Francisco 49ers (8-2-1) @ St. Louis Rams (4-6-1) (1:00 - FOX)
10.) New England Patriots (8-3) @ Miami Dolphins (5-6) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Don't Look Past It Sunday", with three divisional games where the road team has a 1st-Round Bye (or in Houston's case, the #1 seed) on their mind, but absolutely cannot drop this game. Divisional games some times are tough. The Texans have usually done well in Tennessee, but the Rams have been fiesty at home against their divisional opponents, and the Patriots have alternated horrific (2004, 2006, 2009) and huge (2007, 2010, 2011) games in Miami. My guess is one of these games is much closer than the line.
9.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-8) @ Dallas Cowboys (5-6) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "I guess NBC ONLY cares about money", as they have failed to use thier flex right's to switch out a game between two sub-.500 teams. They've done this before, keeping a game with the Eagles and Cowboys late in 2010 in this spot. At least that time the Eagles were fresh with Vick and an eventual division winner, but the Cowboys were missing Romo. There are definitely better options, including some that I am sure CBS or FOX did not block, like Tampa @ Denver. That said, all the seemingly good primetime games this season have been duds, so maybe this is an unexpected classic.
8.) Cincinnati Bengals (6-5) @ San Diego Chargers (4-7) (4:25 - CBS)
7.) Indianapolis Colts (7-4) @ Detroit Lions (4-7) (1:00 - CBS)
6.) Minnesota Vikings (6-5) @ Green Bay Packers (7-4) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Clear it or Fog it Up Sunday" as the Bengals, Colts and Packers have a chance to pull away in their Wild Card races. The Bengals best get a nice lead before a trip to Heinz Field in a few weeks. The Colts have to play the Texans twice, and I think way too many Colts fans are banking on the Texans having nothing to play for in Week 17. A Colts win in Detroit close to guarantees them a Wild Card spot. As for the final game, the Vikings continue their trek into real football, as they get the Packers for the first time. The Packers are vulnerable to good pass rushes, but the Vikings aren't really a team that can take advantage of the Packers defensive weaknesses.
5.) New Orleans Saints (5-6) @ Atlanta Falcons (10-1) (TNF - NFLN)
4.) New York Giants (7-4) @ Washington Redskins (5-6) (MNF - ESPN)
I call it "It Sure Looked a lot Better Last Week" Sunday. Had the Saints won, or Giants lost (or Falcons lost), yesterday, these would be two massive games. The Saints would have a shot to continue their unlikely jaunt back to the playoffs against a Falcons team still looking to beat their big brother again after four straight losses. The Giants, had they lost, would have just a one game lead over the Redskins and Cowboys, making their trip to Washington that much bigger. Instead, we only get slightly less entertaining storylines for the two good primetime games this week.
3.) Seattle Seahawks (6-5) @ Chicago Bears (8-3) (1:00 - FOX)
2.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5) @ Denver Broncos (8-3) (4:05 - FOX)
I call it "What is the Bigger Motivating Factor" Sunday, as the Seahawks and Buccaneers are playing for their lives in teh Wild Card race, while the Broncos and Bears are playing for byes (or I guess in Chicago's case for the division, but it is unlikely they fall out of the playoffs altogether), The Bears and Broncos are better teams, and the Seahawks haven't traveled well, while the Buccaneers haven't really beaten a good team on the road yet, but these are games that both can drop. I doubt either do, but in a slow week all around, they still provide an intriguing matchup.
1.) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5) @ Baltimore Ravens (9-2) (4:25 - CBS)*
The asterisk is just to point out that if Roethlisberger is out, place this way back, because then the Steelers are entering the Gladiators Den on crutches. Anyway, for now I'll assume Ben Roethlisberger plays, which makes this game that much more fun. Much like the two above, this pits a team playing in the Wild Card hunt against a team looking for a bye. The Ravens can come really close to wrapping up the AFC North with a win here, and might even push the Steelers out of the playoffs.\
Projected Playoff Seedings
AFC
1.) Houston Texans (14-2)
2.) Denver Broncos (13-3)
3.) Baltimore Ravens (12-4)
4.) New England Patriots (12-4)
5.) Indianapolis Colts (9-7)
6.) Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
The Texans are still in the driver's seat, and if they take care of business, even a loss in New England wouldn't derail them (though it could derail the Colts, as then most likely Week 17 will be meaningful). I still think the Broncos run the table. At that point, they could do no worse than the #3 seed (with a h2h win over the at-best Ravens). I think the Pats drop one of their two games in six days stretch against the Texans and 49ers, but they could easily prove me wrong. The Ravens, amazingly, are 9-2 and are still in good position for the #2 seed, and their h2h win keeps them ahead of New England in any tiebreaker. The Colts are pretty solidly in, and with just two AFC losses so far, they are in good position to get tiebreakers, which I think they'll get in this case against Pittsburgh, who I feel wins their "win and in" game in Week 16 against Cincinnati.
NFC
1.) Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
2.) San Francisco 49ers (12-3-1)
3.) Chicago Bears (12-4)
4.) New York Giants (11-5)
5.) Green Bay Packers (10-6)
6.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)
The Falcons are in the drivers seat, and it is hard to see them falling too far. The 49ers still have just two losses, and I could see them stealing that #1 seed, but I think Keapernick will have a game where he plays bad enough to lose the game. The Bears are a really good team as long as Cutler is healthy, and the Giants are back. As for the Wild Cards, I think the Packers lose their game in Chicago, which ends their shot at the division. That probably leaves a meaningless (for them) Week 17 game in Minnesota. My guess is given the pounding Aaron Rodgers has taken, Mike McCarthy sits him if he can. The only change here is the Buccaneers going above the Seahawks. Some of this has to do with the Seahawks possibly losing Sherman and Browner for four games, and I think the Vikings, with their tough schedule coming up, falling off. I could see a team climbing back in it, but the Cowboys and Redskins I don't trust, and the Saints have a really tough schedule.
Looking Back at Last Week's Picks
Texans (-3) over Lions (PUSH = 0-0-1)
Redskins (+3) over Cowboys (CORRECT = 1-0-1) (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Patriots (-7) over Jets (CORRECT = 2-0-1)
Bengals (-8) over Raiders (CORRECT = 3-0-1)
Colts (-2) over Bills (CORRECT = 4-0-1)
Steelers (pick) over Browns (WRONG = 4-1-1)
Broncos (-10) over Chiefs (WRONG = 4-2-1)
Jaguars (+3) over Titans (CORRECT = 5-2-1)
Bears (-6.5) over Vikings (CORRECT = 6-2-1) (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
Falcons (-1) over Buccaneers (PUSH = 6-2-2)
Dolphins (+3) over Seahawks (CORRECT = 7-2-2)
Chargers (+1) over Ravens (WRONG = 7-3-2)
Rams (+2.5) over Cardinals (CORRECT = 8-3-2)
49ers (-1) over Saints (CORRECT = 9-3-2)
Giants (-3) over Packers (CORRECT = 10-3-2)
Panthers (-2) over Eagles (CORRECT = 11-3-2)
Week 12: 11-3-2 (LOCK: 1-0; UPSET: 1-0)
Year-to-Date: 98-73-5 (LOCK: 10-2; UPSET: 9-3)
Best Picks: Nothing exact. Closest was picking the Jaguars to beat the Titans 24-20 (they won 24-19). Other close ones were picking the Colts to win 23-17 (they won 20-13), picking the Falcons to win 30-23 (they won 24-23) or picking the 49ers to beat the Saints 27-20 (they won 31-21).
Power Rankings
Their Team MVP: The College Scouting Director Planning the 2013 Draft
32.) Kansas City Chiefs (1-10 = 161-301)
I still love how bad the Chiefs offense is, and it isn't even Matt Cassel's fault anymore. Whatever happened to breakout candidate Jonathan Baldwin? Do people realize that the Chiefs QBs have thrown 6 TDs and 16 INTs this season? Do people remember just how many people picked the Chiefs to win the AFC West this year? 4 out of ESPN's 16 experts picked them, which is four too many.
31.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-8 = 184-282)
They have a realistic chance of finishing the season 3-13, with road games still against Dallas, Tampa and the Giants sandwhiching home games against wild-card hopefuls Cincinnati and Washington. Other than the Giants potentially resting in Week 17, all of those teams are both better than the Eagles and have something to play for. All in all, this could be a sad end to the Andy Reid era.
30.) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9 = 188-308)
It is amazing how competent the Jaguars are when Blaine Gabbert is not playing. Chad Henne continues to be a respectable NFL QB, a guy who is still better than Mark Sanchez (something I claimed back in mid-2009). The Jaguars defense finally showed up as well. Word is Maurice Jones-Drew might finally be resurrected this week, which is nice to know.
29.) Oakland Raiders (3-8 = 218-356)
That defense continues to be just atrocious, and the lack of running options is finally catching up to that offense. Darren McFadden might be back next week, but it won't matter much. Totally random thought, but how does Marcel Reese continue to get open all the time as a passing threat? Barely anyone on that Raiders team can do anything, yet he somehow finds a way to contribute each week.
28.) Tennessee Titans (4-7 = 238-335)
The Titans had a slim chance at the playoffs, but that door slammed shut. They probably aren't the worst four win team by as great a margin, but they still have two more wins than they should have. They can still play spoiler though, with games against Houston and Indianapolis left. I'll curse them if they derail Indy's shot at the playoffs with a garbage win in two weeks.
27.) New York Jets (4-7 = 221-290)
Three TDs allowed in 52 seconds?? There are no words....
26.) Buffalo Bills (4-7 = 243-319)
That was a decent performance in Indy, but like so many of the Colts opponents this year, they couldn't finish drives. I have no idea how a team could get over 6 yards per play and get decent field position, yet score just 13 points. Good to see that Mario Williams isn't going to totally check out after getting that contract, as he was a terror for the first time in a while.
25.) Carolina Panthers (3-8 = 214-265)
The Panthers have a chance to pick up some wins, and save Ron Rivera's job in the process. Their toughest game left is a home date against the Falcons, while they have trips to KC, San Diego and New Orleans, and another home game against the Raiders. 6-10 is not out of the question, which would probably leave the Panthers pretty happy, considering how disastrous much of this season has been.
24.) Arizona Cardinals (4-7 = 180-227)
Seven straight losses, a third straight QB. I still believe Ken Whisenhunt is a good coach, and if a team has a QB, he would be a great hire (hello, San Diego??), but here's just a list of the people that have attempted to take hold of the QB job since Kurt Warner left: Kevin Kob, John Skelton, Derek Anderson, Max Hall, Ryan Lindley.
23.) Miami Dolphins (5-6 = 211-226)
They won the game and kept their playoff hopes alive, but can we talk about that whole sprinkler incident. The Dolphins definitely played better after it. Are we sure that wasn't planned? Why so quick to assume it was a mistake by the groundscrew?
22.) Cleveland Browns (3-8 = 209-248)
I would love to see some work done on how the team that underperforms their pythagoreon projected win total and how they do the next year. I feel like I have seen such and usually that team improves. Case in point was the 2008 Wildcat Dolphins, who were much better than the 1-15 they were in 2007. Anyway, the Browns are a fully decent team. Too bad they are going in a new direction in terms of the GM, and almost inevitably, the coach.
21.) Dallas Cowboys (5-6 = 242-262)
I've never seen a team that I'm more confident will make a game out of a 20-point deficit, but also equally confident in their ability to still lose that game. That was so expected. Romo piles up big numbers after playing like garbage, but they still lose anyway. It was just extra special that once again it happened at home, and once again in primetime.
20.) San Diego Chargers (4-7 = 245-237)
Despite my thinking that Ray Rice was down before the first-down line, they don't even deserve the real call in that case. How they continue to search, and find, new ways to lose games is mesmerizing. The Chargers should have won that game, and the Broncos and Patriots fans are cursing them for not finishing the damn job.
19.) Detroit Lions (4-7 = 267-280)
Despite their record, I feel like they can still beat any team at any time. Calvin Johnson is still unstoppable (outside of the red zone), and that defense can dominate any game, but they just aren't able to close it out. The Lions are better than their record, and they are still young at most positions. I hope there is no reactionary changes this offseason in Detroit.
18.) St. Louis Rams (4-6-1 = 205-254)
Sam Bradford continues to have the most impressive under-50% completion percentage games I have ever seen (vs and @ ARZ). Janoris Jenkins had another good game, and the Rams continue to be undefeated in that division (3-0-1). The Rams are still young, and Fisher has a plan, but I don't know if Bradford can ever get good enough to make this a Super Bowl caliber team.
The Bad Good Team
17.) Indianapolis Colts (7-4 = 230-273)
I'm done putting them up high in the rankings purely because of their record. In the end, they still have a team that is good enough to beat any bad team in the NFL. They also have no way of beating good teams other than a mysterious, karmically affected game against Green Bay. Do you know what that reminds me of: the 2011 Cincinnati Bengals, a rookie-QB-led team that were 9-0 against non-playoff teams and 0-7 against playoff teams.
The Great NFC Wild Card Mess of 2012
16.) New Orleans Saints (5-6 = 308-304)
The Saints finally showed their true selves. They still have beaten one good team all year, which was a close win against Atlanta at home. In their last two big games outside of that, they were smacked around by Denver and San Francisco. The Saints have suffered so much on their o-line since last season and it showed yesterday.
15.) Washington Redskins (5-6 = 295-285)
RGIII alternates from great games to bad games way more than Luck (who is consistently decent all the time), and last week was one of his great games. They have a huge game upcoming, where if they win they could have a shot at the NFC East, but it would be nice to see RGIII have a good game against a good defense and good pass rush.
14.) Minnesota Vikings (6-5 = 248-249)
That was Week 1 of a six-game jaunt through Hell for the Vikings, as they still have another game against the Bears, and two against Green Bay, and a trip to Houston included as well. The Vikings were competent in that game, but turnovers screwed them. The Bears did expose again how limited Christian Ponder is, a fact that may be exposed quite a few more times.
13.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5 = 310-254)
Tough loss there, and they have a huge trip to Denver coming up, a team they don't really match up with all. The Buccaneers are still in the thick of the hunt, especially if they can beat the Saints in their remaining game, but the Buccaneers need to play better defensively. Teams just pass over them at will, and they will go nowhere long term until they fix it.
12.) Seattle Seahawks (6-5 = 219-185)
They will rue that loss, as well as the loss earlier to Detroit, and it could easily keep them out of the playoffs. They still have the h2h win over the Packers, and that was a non-conference loss, but the Seahawks are now on the tightrope, especially if they lose Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner for four games. Russell Wilson, and the rest of that defense, is still playing well enough to nab that last spot, though.
2 Teams, 1 Spot: A Rivalry Renewed
11.) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5 = 231-210)
Before the Ravens Rebirth under Harbaugh/Flacco, the Steelers and Bengals were a nasty rivalry. The intensity isn't there, but the Steelers and Bengals are rivals for that last playoff spot. The Steelers probably won't win even if Ben is playing, but if Roethlisberger is there for the last four games, I like their chances to get that final spot, and be a potentially dangerous team in Wild Card Weekend.
10.) Cincinnati Bengals (6-5 = 282-247)
Has there been a more Jekyll and Hyde than the Bengals this year? They had a three game losing streak to Miami, Cleveland and Pittsburgh, but then dominated the Giants, Chiefs and Raiders the last two weeks. The Bengals have the talent, and the opening. It really all comes down to that Week 16 game in Cincinnati, but they have a shot to take care of business these next three weeks to make that game a lot more comfortable.
The Super Bowl Players
9.) Green Bay Packers (7-4 = 273-245)
That was the worst game in the Aaron Rodgers era. The only thing that comes close is a 29-51 loss to New Orleans in 2008 in the Superdome. It was clear they couldn't block, but even when teh Giants rushed three, Rodgers had nothing downfield. The injuries might be catching up on the offense. They should start to get guys back, and they could do what they did in 2010, but that offense just isn't the same.
8.) Baltimore Ravens (9-2 = 283-219)
How are they 10-2? You know what they remind me of? A slightly more offense heavy and slightly less defense heavy version of the 2003 Patriots, who started 2-2 and then rolled off 12 straight wins despite rarely looking that dominant. The Ravens still don't have a fully healthy Suggs or Ngata, yet they continue to play good enough defense. Also, converting a 4th and 29 is the type of bullshit the 2001-2004 Patriots used to pull all the time.
7.) New York Giants (7-4 = 305-226)
Is there any team that can get up for games like the Giants? I can't think of any good comparison in any other sport, really, for a team that is never that great in the regular season, but just dominant in these types of games. That said, the Packers were the perfect matchup, a team missing o-lineman, with no running game, and little in the secondary. That was the recipe for a blowout, yet it was still impressive.
6.) Atlanta Falcons (10-1 = 294-216)
Just remember, if Matt Bryant hits his two field goals, they win a little more comfortably. They definitely looked like the better team on Sunday, and that was a big game, going to a good divisional rival and beating them. The Falcons still have the inside track at the #1 seed, but they have another chance to quiet some more doubters two weeks from now against the Giants.
5.) Denver Broncos (8-3 = 318-221)
I'm dropping them a bit after a slow performance against Kansas City, but if Matt Prater hits two makeable field goals, it is 23-9, which is a little better (plus, a cover). The Broncos were able to win a game on the road with their 'C' game, which is not a bad thing, but that game better get better against better competition, which they'll face in the playoffs.
4.) New England Patriots (8-3 = 407-244)
I'm moving them up after two straight blowouts, but they aren't as good as the team they looked like the past two wees, just like they weren't as bad as the team that nearly lost to the Bills the week before that. Tom Brady is in another interception-free streak, like 2010, which hopefully will end in a shriek-inducing pick on a screen-pass, much like 2010.
3.) Chicago Bears (8-3 = 277-175)
It is astounding what a different Jay Cutler makes to that team. He isn't a great QB, but if anyone, and I mean you Jason Whitlock, tries to assert that Cutler isn't tough, they should lose their job. The guy is behind a pathetic o-line, and makes the Bears offense competent. Good to see that defense back to their turnover-creating ways. Cutler's injury lost their chance at a bye, but they still have their division lead back. They need to hold onto that thing.
2.) San Francisco 49ers (8-2-1 = 276-155)
I don't know if I'm totally wrong about the Kaepernick move yet, but the 49ers aren't any worse with him. My concern is he has a bad game in the playoffs, but Alex Smith could also have a bad game in the playoffs. What is good is that pass rush has heated up the last few weeks, outside of Aldon Smith, who has been great all year long. That is great for a team that is still in an offense-heavy conference.
1.) Houston Texans (10-1 = 327-211)
They played nearly 10 quarters of football in five days, and went 2-0. They have some of the best wins this year (beating Denver in Denver, killing Baltimore), and have had just one bad game. Andre Johnson is clearly healthy and dominant once again, and that offense just seems different now. They still have some challenges left, including what could be a huge game in New England in two weeks, but they are still in good position to win the #1 seed in the AFC.
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
16.) Carolina Panthers (3-8) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-10) (1:00 - FOX)
15.) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) @ Buffalo Bills (4-7) (1:00 - CBS)
14.) Arizona Cardinals (4-7) @ New York Jets (4-7) (1:00 - FOX)
13.) Cleveland Browns (3-8) @ Oakland Raiders (3-8) (4:25 - CBS)
I call it "Who Gives a Shit" Sunday. These are the only three games with absolutely no playoff implications (one coming up has minimal). None of these teams are going anywhere. It is good, actually, in a way that they have to play each other, instead of ruining other games.
12.) Houston Texans (10-1) @ Tennessee Titans (4-7) (1:00 - CBS)
11.) San Francisco 49ers (8-2-1) @ St. Louis Rams (4-6-1) (1:00 - FOX)
10.) New England Patriots (8-3) @ Miami Dolphins (5-6) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Don't Look Past It Sunday", with three divisional games where the road team has a 1st-Round Bye (or in Houston's case, the #1 seed) on their mind, but absolutely cannot drop this game. Divisional games some times are tough. The Texans have usually done well in Tennessee, but the Rams have been fiesty at home against their divisional opponents, and the Patriots have alternated horrific (2004, 2006, 2009) and huge (2007, 2010, 2011) games in Miami. My guess is one of these games is much closer than the line.
9.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-8) @ Dallas Cowboys (5-6) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "I guess NBC ONLY cares about money", as they have failed to use thier flex right's to switch out a game between two sub-.500 teams. They've done this before, keeping a game with the Eagles and Cowboys late in 2010 in this spot. At least that time the Eagles were fresh with Vick and an eventual division winner, but the Cowboys were missing Romo. There are definitely better options, including some that I am sure CBS or FOX did not block, like Tampa @ Denver. That said, all the seemingly good primetime games this season have been duds, so maybe this is an unexpected classic.
8.) Cincinnati Bengals (6-5) @ San Diego Chargers (4-7) (4:25 - CBS)
7.) Indianapolis Colts (7-4) @ Detroit Lions (4-7) (1:00 - CBS)
6.) Minnesota Vikings (6-5) @ Green Bay Packers (7-4) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Clear it or Fog it Up Sunday" as the Bengals, Colts and Packers have a chance to pull away in their Wild Card races. The Bengals best get a nice lead before a trip to Heinz Field in a few weeks. The Colts have to play the Texans twice, and I think way too many Colts fans are banking on the Texans having nothing to play for in Week 17. A Colts win in Detroit close to guarantees them a Wild Card spot. As for the final game, the Vikings continue their trek into real football, as they get the Packers for the first time. The Packers are vulnerable to good pass rushes, but the Vikings aren't really a team that can take advantage of the Packers defensive weaknesses.
5.) New Orleans Saints (5-6) @ Atlanta Falcons (10-1) (TNF - NFLN)
4.) New York Giants (7-4) @ Washington Redskins (5-6) (MNF - ESPN)
I call it "It Sure Looked a lot Better Last Week" Sunday. Had the Saints won, or Giants lost (or Falcons lost), yesterday, these would be two massive games. The Saints would have a shot to continue their unlikely jaunt back to the playoffs against a Falcons team still looking to beat their big brother again after four straight losses. The Giants, had they lost, would have just a one game lead over the Redskins and Cowboys, making their trip to Washington that much bigger. Instead, we only get slightly less entertaining storylines for the two good primetime games this week.
3.) Seattle Seahawks (6-5) @ Chicago Bears (8-3) (1:00 - FOX)
2.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5) @ Denver Broncos (8-3) (4:05 - FOX)
I call it "What is the Bigger Motivating Factor" Sunday, as the Seahawks and Buccaneers are playing for their lives in teh Wild Card race, while the Broncos and Bears are playing for byes (or I guess in Chicago's case for the division, but it is unlikely they fall out of the playoffs altogether), The Bears and Broncos are better teams, and the Seahawks haven't traveled well, while the Buccaneers haven't really beaten a good team on the road yet, but these are games that both can drop. I doubt either do, but in a slow week all around, they still provide an intriguing matchup.
1.) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5) @ Baltimore Ravens (9-2) (4:25 - CBS)*
The asterisk is just to point out that if Roethlisberger is out, place this way back, because then the Steelers are entering the Gladiators Den on crutches. Anyway, for now I'll assume Ben Roethlisberger plays, which makes this game that much more fun. Much like the two above, this pits a team playing in the Wild Card hunt against a team looking for a bye. The Ravens can come really close to wrapping up the AFC North with a win here, and might even push the Steelers out of the playoffs.\
Projected Playoff Seedings
AFC
1.) Houston Texans (14-2)
2.) Denver Broncos (13-3)
3.) Baltimore Ravens (12-4)
4.) New England Patriots (12-4)
5.) Indianapolis Colts (9-7)
6.) Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
The Texans are still in the driver's seat, and if they take care of business, even a loss in New England wouldn't derail them (though it could derail the Colts, as then most likely Week 17 will be meaningful). I still think the Broncos run the table. At that point, they could do no worse than the #3 seed (with a h2h win over the at-best Ravens). I think the Pats drop one of their two games in six days stretch against the Texans and 49ers, but they could easily prove me wrong. The Ravens, amazingly, are 9-2 and are still in good position for the #2 seed, and their h2h win keeps them ahead of New England in any tiebreaker. The Colts are pretty solidly in, and with just two AFC losses so far, they are in good position to get tiebreakers, which I think they'll get in this case against Pittsburgh, who I feel wins their "win and in" game in Week 16 against Cincinnati.
NFC
1.) Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
2.) San Francisco 49ers (12-3-1)
3.) Chicago Bears (12-4)
4.) New York Giants (11-5)
5.) Green Bay Packers (10-6)
6.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)
The Falcons are in the drivers seat, and it is hard to see them falling too far. The 49ers still have just two losses, and I could see them stealing that #1 seed, but I think Keapernick will have a game where he plays bad enough to lose the game. The Bears are a really good team as long as Cutler is healthy, and the Giants are back. As for the Wild Cards, I think the Packers lose their game in Chicago, which ends their shot at the division. That probably leaves a meaningless (for them) Week 17 game in Minnesota. My guess is given the pounding Aaron Rodgers has taken, Mike McCarthy sits him if he can. The only change here is the Buccaneers going above the Seahawks. Some of this has to do with the Seahawks possibly losing Sherman and Browner for four games, and I think the Vikings, with their tough schedule coming up, falling off. I could see a team climbing back in it, but the Cowboys and Redskins I don't trust, and the Saints have a really tough schedule.
