OK, so, we are at the three-quarter pole this year. Every team has played 12 games. At this point, I care less about how teams are perceived in total, but how they stack up in their conferences. The playoffs are approaching. So, I'm still going to review my picks like normal, and rank next week's games like normal, but the other two parts will have changes. First, instead of a 32-1 power ranking, I will be doing one for each conference, breaking them down into groups of non-playoff teams, playoff hopefuls and the top of each conference. I still will make playoff projections, but I'll make it more detailed by giving a prediction for each team's remaining games. Finally, I am adding an award watch part as well.
Looking Back at Last Week's Picks
Falcons (-3) over Saints (CORRECT = 1-0 = +1000) (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
Bears (-3.5) over Seahawks (WRONG = 1-1 = -1000)
Vikings (+9) over Packers (PUSH = 1-1-1 = 0)
STL (+7.5*) over Rams (CORRECT = 2-1-1 = +1000)
Jets (-4.5) over Cardinals (WRONG = 2-2-1 = -1000)
Panthers (-2.5*) over Chiefs (WRONG = 2-3-1 = -1200)
Colts (+5) over Lions (CORRECT = 3-3-1 = +1000)
Patriots (-7) over Dolphins (PUSH = 3-3-2 = 0)
Jagaurs (+5.5) over Bills (WRONG = 3-4-2 = -1000) (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Texans (-6) over Titans (CORRECT = 4-4-2 = +1000)
Broncos (-7) over Buccaneers (CORRECT = 5-4-2 = +1000)
Browns (-3) over Raiders (CORRECT = 6-4-2 = +1000)
Bengals (-1.5) over Chargers (CORRECT = 7-4-2 = +1000)
Ravens (-8.5) over Steelers (WRONG = 7-5-2 = -1000)
Eagles (+10) over Cowboys (CORRECT = 8-5-2 = +1000)
Giants (-2.5) over Redskins (WRONG = 8-6-2 = -1000)
Week 13: 8-6-2 (LOCK: 1-0; UPSET: 0-1) (+1,800)
Year-to-Date: 106-79-7 (LOCK: 11-2; UPSET: 9-4) (+26,800)
Best Picks: Nothing really that close this week.
Power Rankings
AFC
Welcome to the "Insert Average Overranked QB Here" Sweepstakes*
* - for the rest of the season, the blurbs for this section will be really, really short.
16.) Kansas City Chiefs (2-10 = 188-322)
I'm happy they got their win, for more than one reason. Of course, there is the obvious reason of them fighting through the adversity of losing a teammate (a teammate that, let's remember, killed someone), and also the reason that they will avoid losing all their games at home. That should never happen.
15.) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10 = 206-342)
I guess Chad Henne wouldn't make that team decent all of a sudden, huh? Also, is Maurice Jones-Drew even alive at this point?
14.) Oakland Raiders (3-9 = 235-376)
No one can stat-pad like Carson Palmer, who is going to have the worst 4,500 yard season of all time. Same with Brandon Myers, who is even more quietly having a good season at Tight End.
13.) Tennessee Titans (4-8 = 248-359)
Well, their defense didn't quit, but the offense kept giving the ball away. You can't do any of that if you want to beat a 10-1 team.
12.) New York Jets (5-7 = 228-296)
Personally, I don't think Greg McElroy is the answer, but I hope he gets the rest of the season to prove himself. It will help that he gets to face a soft slate of defenses.
11.) San Diego Chargers (4-8 = 258-257)
Something is very, very wrong with Philip Rivers. I excused his lackluster 2011 season as a one-off abberation, but this is now really wrong. He doesn't have that beautiful deep ball. In the end, it looks like Philip Rivers will flame out far earlier than anyone would have imagined.
10.) Miami Dolphins (5-7 = 227-249)
Good performance by that defense, but I am worried about Ryan Tannehill. He was OK against Seattle, but he missed open guys all game against New England. Not a good sign to play that way against a bad defense.
9.) Buffalo Bills (5-7 = 277-337)
Good win for a team that has at least remained competitive and interesting throughout this season. It could have been so much more though.
8.) Cleveland Browns (4-8 = 229-265)
They play the Chiefs next, and have a chance to get to 5 wins and win three straight games. That defense really is good, and they have a solid core. Just find a QB, for once.
The Muddled Mess of Mediocrity
7.) Indianapolis Colts (8-4 = 265-306)
I have no idea how they won. I have no idea how Luck could have 30 incompletions and three picks, and the Colts still be able to win. I have no idea how Calvin Johnson didn't have 250 yards receiving. I have no idea how they were able to pull that off. I have no idea how I might get my wish and the Colts drawing Baltimore in Round 1.
6.) Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5 = 254-230)
That was a huge win, with the Bengals also winning, as they stay level for the #6 seed with Ben presumably back this weekend. They have a chance to run the table with two easy games, and then a trip to Dallas and that gauntlet game against Cincinnati. That defense continues to improve each week, and is now starting to get turnovers. Whoever Cortez Allen is, he is playing really well at corner.
5.) Cincinnati Bengals (7-5 = 302-260)
Take care of business. That is what the Bengals failed to do against the Dolphins and Browns earlier this year, but that is what they've done the last two weeks, blowing out the Raiders and then going to San Diego in a tricky game and beating them. Their schedule is a bit harder than Pittsburgh's down the stretch, but they still have a chance.
The Team that Can't Possibly go to New Orleans, Could They?
4.) Baltimore Ravens (9-3 = 303-242)
Well, the worst 9-2 team of all time (as judged by how people perceived them) is now just one of the worst 9-3 teams of all time. How could the Ravens blow a 13-3, and 20-13 lead at home against a Charlie Batch led team. The Ravens got one of the biggest breaks of all time, with Roethlisberger's injury coinciding with both games against Baltimore, and they couldn't take advantage. They still have a shot at a bye, but it will be tough. Either way, I don't think anyone will pick them to go on the road in the Divisional Round and win if they get there.
One of These Three Will be in New Orleans, Won't They?
3.) New England Patriots (9-3 = 430-260)
The Patriots finally faced a real defense and a team that wouldn't butt-fumble, and despite still getting some breaks (the Dolphins punter going out there with them greasy hands), the Patriots looked mortal. It took a week, but we might be seeing the real impact of losing Gronkowski. Everyone remaining is coverable. Brandon Lloyd was totally taken away. The run game didn't work (admittedly, it did when they needed it to late). The o-line took a hit. He better be back soon for them.
2.) Denver Broncos (9-3 = 349-240)
The Broncos are doing what the Colts perfected, which is giving up garbage time points to make games seem closer than they were. They did this against the Chargers (winning 30-23 instead of 30-16), and did it again here. Matt Prater is now missing field goals. That said, they made a good offense look totally average, and took over after a slow second half. It is easy for them to look past these games to that showdown with Baltimore, but trailing at half time woke them up, and they woke up in a rage.
1.) Houston Texans (11-1 = 351-221)
If they win next week, not only will they almost assuredly get the #1 seed, but they will have one of the best resumes of any recent team (maybe with the exception of the '07 and '10 Pats) in terms of who they beat. Anyway, the defense returned to form, and the offense did just enough, as they always seem to do. Next week is huge, and getting Jonathan Joseph back for the game is about as big.
NFC
Welcome to the "Insert Average Overranked QB Here" Sweepstakes
16.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-9 = 217-320)
Nick Foles looked good. He looked confident. Bryce Brown looked even better. The defense was just terrible. Kudos to CaptainComeback, but the Eagles have allowed opposing QBs to have a passer rating above 120 for the 6th straight game.
15.) Arizona Cardinals (4-8 = 186-234)
The defense looked good, and Patrick Peterson looked even better. The offense was just terrible. How can Ryan Lindley continue to be played. The only reason I can think of is Ken Whisenhunt is basically firing himself at this point.
14.) Carolina Panthers (3-9 = 235-292)
Tough position for them, but they should have been able to win that game. The Panthers played it like they weren't even aware the Chiefs only true ability on offense is their run game.
13.) Detroit Lions (4-8 = 300-315)
They could so easily be 7-5 right now, as they've blown three straight home games. The Lions will rue their missed chances, but I still do like this team long term.
The Even More Muddled Mess of Mediocrity
12.) St. Louis Rams (5-6-1 = 221-267)
They are 4-0-1 against other NFC West teams. Their only game left is @SEA, which seems like it would probably be a loss, but if the Rams could win that game, they might be the worst team ever to go undefeated in their division. They play really tough and Janoris Jenkins has really come on the last couple of weeks. He has a bright future, as does that team.
11.) New Orleans Saints (5-7 = 321-327)
I want to make an assertion: Discounting Philip Rivers because of his regression, Drew Brees is the most run-game dependent great QB of this era. He has yet to really have a great season with a bad run game, something Peyton has done all the time, and something Brady, Rodgers, Eli and Ben have done in the past.
10.) Minnesota Vikings (6-6 = 262-272)
They have an issue at QB that needs addressing. Christian Ponder might do a fine poor-man's-Rich-Gannon impression, but he is definitely not the long term answer in any rational line of thinking. They are wasting away Adrian Peterson's incredible career (although you can make the argument that his fumbles played a part in wasting away the 2009 NFC Title Game), and it is sad to see. He is so good, but the QB is so average, that the team is stuck being third banana in a two-team division.
9.) Dallas Cowboys (6-6 = 280-295)
Good win by the Cowboys, who could have folded numerous times, but it folding is hard to do when playing the Eagles defense as currently constituted. I'm just so grateful that they gave up that punt return late which allowed the Eagles to cover. Thank you so much, 'Boys. The Cowboys still have a shot at the division, but they have to win at least one of their two games against the AFC North.
8.) Washington Redskins (6-6 = 312-301)
They have a realistic chance of winning the division, but I don't think they will pull it off with the schedule they have coming up. They still host Dallas (who would love to pull some revenge off), and a trip to Cleveland could be tricky. That said, the schedule is easier than the Giants. They actually have a shot at the division, which is scary.
7.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6 = 333-285)
They looked really inferior in that game, despite being ahead at halftime. Josh Freeman just couldn't do anything after a hot start in the first quarter, but that isn't a surprise against what is becoming a really good pass defense. Their defense played well, but this team is still a few steps away. What scares me, though, is I could have written the exact same first three sentences about the 2010 Buccaneers.
The Team Who's Rookie QB and Flaky Play on the Road Will End Their Chances
6.) Seattle Seahawks (7-5 = 242-202)
Big, big win for a frustrating team. They blow multiple leads to the Dolphins one week and then drive 97 and 80 yards to win the game against the Bears. Great game by Russell Wilson when his run game wasn't exactly working. I would sign up for a playoff rematch right now. That said, I fear for that type of team in the playoffs.
The Only Fun Race Left
5.) Green Bay Packers (8-4 = 296-259)
I still have them behind Chicago because outside of two games (@ HOU, @ STL), their offense hasn't clicked all year. Even yesterday, Aaron Rodgers had a good game, but the team deservedly just mustered 23 points. They haven't played great at home all year long, which makes next weeks game more interesting as they host Detroit on SNF. Their defense did look a bit better though, and they should get Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson back soon.
4.) Chicago Bears (8-4 = 294-198)
Another game they should have won. It comes down to this, if they win their Week 15 game at home against the Packers, they can hold onto the division, and maybe even still get a bye. On the other side, they could drop to the #6 seed because the Seahawks have the head-to-head over the Bears. Jay Cutler looked good, but for the second time in three games, the defense looked a little slow.
The Three Teams that will Most Likely Get to New Orleans, but are Far Less Sure Things than those Three in the AFC
3.) New York Giants (7-5 = 321-243)
I still think the Giants pull together, finish 3-1 and win the division, but that was a tough and potentially devastating loss for the Giants. Their defense looked completely unable to stop the run, again. The Giants right now have to man up and go on a run, or they will blow a division they once led by two games. For a team that is used to stepping up in big moments, that was a failure.
2.) San Francisco 49ers (8-3-1 = 289-171)
I really wanted another tie for them. I would wonder if they tied both games if they could petition the NFL to just give the Rams and 49ers a win and a loss. Anyway, this is the first question to Jim Harbaugh's plan to go with Colin Kaepernick. His reasoning was the Kap had the "hot hand", and now that hand is no longer all that hot. My guess is he stick with Kaepernick, but that decision looks far more precarious now than it did last week.
1.) Atlanta Falcons (11-1 = 317-229)
The NFC has now become way more muddled than the NFC, and it is because of that that I have the Falcons, the worst 11-1 team of all time, at #1. They still haven't lost a home game, and their defense has been solid all year long. Despite the gobs of people that will pick against them come divisional weekend, that will not be an easy place to play. They won't lose 48-21, I'll tell you that.
Playoff Projections
AFC
7.) Cincinnati Bengals (10-6 - vs DAL (W), @ PHI (W), @ PIT (L), @ BAL (W))
******************
6.) Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6 - vs SD (W), @ DAL (L), vs CIN (W), vs CLE (W))*
5.) Indianapolis Colts (11-5 - vs TEN (W), @ HOU (L), @ KC (W), vs HOU (W))
4.) Baltimore Ravens (11-5 - @ WAS (W), vs DEN (L), vs NYG (W), @ CIN (L))
3.) New England Patriots (12-4 - vs HOU (L), vs SF (L), @ JAX (W), vs MIA (W))
2.) Denver Broncos (13-3 - @ OAK (W), @ BAL (W), vs CLE (W), vs KC (W))
1.) Houston Texans (14-2 - @ NE (W), vs. IND (W), vs MIN (W), @ IND (L))
* - Steelers get in over the Bengals because of head-to-head record (2-0)
NFC
6.) Seattle Seahawks (10-6 - vs ARZ (W), @ BUF (W), vs SF (L), vs STL (W))
5.) Green Bay Packers (11-5 - vs DET (W), @ CHI (L), vs TEN (W), @ MIN (W))
4.) New York Giants (10-6 - vs NO (W), @ ATL (W), @ BAL (L), vs PHI (W))
3.) San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1 - vs MIA (W), @ NE (L), @ SEA (W), vs ARZ (W))
2.) Chicago Bears (12-4 - @ MIN (W), vs GB (W), @ ARZ (W), @ DET (W))
1.) Atlanta Falcons (14-2 - @ CAR (W), vs NYG (L), @ DET (W), vs TB (W))
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
16.) Kansas City Chiefs (2-10) @ Cleveland Browns (4-8) (1:00 - CBS)
15.) New York Jets (5-7) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10) (1:00 - CBS)
14.) St. Louis Rams (5-6-1) @ Buffalo Bills (5-7) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "What Actually Motivates the Teams in These Games" Sunday, with six teams, none of them with any realistic playoff chances (how bad are they: The Rams probably have the best chance). Anyway, the big stories are the Jets can string their fans along one more game, the Browns can actually get a three game win streak, and the Rams or Bills will have six wins.
13.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-9) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6) (1:00 - FOX)
12.) Miami Dolphins (5-7) @ San Francisco 49ers (8-3-1) (4:05 - CBS)
I call it "If teams play games between a good team and a bad team, does it actually really happen?" Sunday, as I have really nothing to say about these teams. The Eagles have a little bit of momentum on offense, but the Eagles pass defense has been beyond atrocious since they fired Juan Castillo.
11.) Arizona Cardinals (4-8) @ Seattle Seahawks (7-5) (4:25 - FOX)
10.) Denver Broncos (9-3) @ Oakland Raiders (3-9) (TNF - NLFN)
9.) Tennessee Titans (4-8) @ Indianapolis Colts (8-4) (1:00 - CBS)
8.) Chicago Bears (8-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (6-6) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Divisional Games are Always Either Really Interesting, or Really Disappointing, and this Weekend Will Prove It" Sunday. Here we have four divisional games where one team is good and the other isn't. The Cardinals will look to avoid a 9th straight loss, and Ryan Lindley will look to avoid being the worst QB imagineable again. The Broncos get a short week, which could be tricky, I guess. The Colts look to essentially clinch a playoff spot, and the Bears look to keep pace with the Packers before their Week 15 game.
7.) San Diego Chargers (4-8) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) (1:00 - CBS)
6.) Atlanta Falcons (11-1) @ Carolina Panthers (3-9) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "If Trap Games are Real, Here are Two of Them" Sunday, as the Steelers, hopefully with Roethlisberger back for the game, get a reeling Chargers team. The Steelers have generally owned the Chargers during the Rivers era in San Diego, but there is always a chance for things to change. The Falcons passed another test, and get another one here against a semi-dangerous Panthers team who came within one bomb to Roddy White of beating Atlanta in Atlanta.
5.) Dallas Cowboys (6-6) @ Cincinnati Bengals (7-5) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Battle of the Wild Card Hopefuls" Sunday, as both teams look to keep pace in teh Wild Card race. The Cowboys are further away, having lost to Seattle earlier in the season (and Chicago, if they continue to fall), but are playing well right now. The Bengals are playing really well, and have dominated their last two home games. This is a type of game the Bengals should win, and they need to as that Week 16 game looms larger and larger.
4.) New Orleans Saints (5-7) @ New York Giants (7-5) (4:25 - FOX)
3.) Detroit Lions (4-8) @ Green Bay Packers (8-4) (SNF - ESPN)
2.) Baltimore Ravens (9-3) @ Washington Redskins (6-6) (1:00 - CBS)
Keeping Pace is important, and all these three better teams have to. The Giants have historically been awful against teh Saints during the Brees era, including giving up 48 and 49 points to the Saints in their last two meetings. Both of those games were against better Saints teams in the Superdome, though. The Lions should have beaten the Packers (just like they should have beaten the Texans and Colts) three weeks ago, and get a shot to return the favor here, and the Ravens look to keep their two-game lead, and outside shot at a bye, over the Steelers. That is also a nice rivalry game, and for the first time, the Redskins really have something to bring to the table with RGIII.
1.) Houston Texans (11-1) @ New England Patriots (9-3) (MNF - ESPN)
And now we get to the best game of the Week, and at least on paper going in, one of the best games of the year. If the Texans win this game, just give them the #1 seed. They would be 12-1, have a two game lead over the rest of the conference, and have a head-to-head win over the Patriots, Broncos and Ravens. The Patriots, with a win, would be in striking distance of stealing that #1 seed, and put them in great position to hold onto at least the #2 seed. It should be a contrast in styles. Pass-heavy teams have done well against Houston, but they should have Jonathan Joseph back, which should help.
Award Watch
Coach of the Year
3.) Mike Smith (ATL)
2.) Gary Kubiak (HOU)
1.) Lovie Smith (CHI)
I'm not sure if an interim has ever won the award, so I'm not putting Bruce Arians here. I have Lovie Smith on top just because of how good his defense has been, but Kubiak and Smith have good shots as they lead the best teams in a weak year overall for miracle stories.
DROTY
3.) Chandler Jones (DE - NE - 6 sacks, 3 FF, 18 Tackles)
2.) Janoris Jenkins (CB - STL -3 INTs, 2 FRs, 3 TDs, 44 Tackles)
1.) Lavonte David (OLB - TB - 87 Tackles, 1 INT, 3 FF)
All three players are in different situations right now. Chandler Jones, who is currently hurt, has cooled off recently, while Janoris Jenkins has three TDs in the last two games. In the end, I'm placing the most consistent player at the top, as Lavonte David has been key in helping the Buccaneers become the league's best run defense.
OROTY
3.) Doug Martin (RB - TB -236 rush, 1,106 yards, 4.7 y/r, 9 TDs, 32 rec, 374 yds)
2.) Robert Griffin III (QB - WAS -
1.) Andrew Luck (QB - IND - 279/503 (55.5%), 3,596 yards, 17 TDs, 16 INTs, 5 rush TDs)
The two QBs are now taking over (I guess Russell Wilson is there too, but he inherited a better team). For right now, because of their better record (by two games), their close wins and his great performance in close games, I'm going with Luck, who is asked to do more, throw deeper, and carry a worse team, over RGIII.
DPOTY
3.) Charles Tillman (CB - CHI - 2 INTs, 2 TDs, 2 FRs, 8 FFs, 58 Tackles)
2.) Von Miller (OLB - DEN - 15.0 Sacks, 5 FFs, 1 INT, 1 TD, 44 Tackles)
1.) JJ Watt (DE - HOU - 15.5 Sacks, 15 Passes Defended, 49 Tackles)
Tillman is holding onto that last spot, but Aldon Smith (who is still a sack machine but with little else) from his early season performance, with TDs, and a ridiculous amount of forced fumbles. Von Miller has been great getting to the passer, dominant against the run, and now with a game-changing interception. In the end, though, JJ Watt is having one of the greatest seasons ever for a 3-4 DE. He is now not #1 in sacks (but just 2 behind Aldon), but still incredibly high at Passes Defensed for a lineman, and dominant against the rush.
OPOTY
3.) Peyton Manning (QB - DEN - 304/447 (68.0%), 3,502 yards, 29 TDs, 9 INTs, 104.6 RAT)
2.) Calvin Johnson (WR - DET - 86 Rec, 1,428 yards, 119.0 y/g, 5 TDs)
1.) Adrian Peterson (RB - MIN - 234 rush, 1,446 yards, 120.5 y/g, 8 TDs)
Peyton gets the nod for being the best QB so far, but the top two are having incredible years. Calvin is on pace to beat Jerry Rice's record for Yards in a season. His TD numbers are down, but that is mostly because the Lions are using him almost as a decoy in the red zone. I'm giving it to Peterson right now, though, because he's come back from ACL surgery and having his best year yet. He has a legitimate shot at 2,000 yards. He has no passing game to relieve pressure off of him, but he's continued to play extremely well.
MVP
5.) Adrian Peterson (RB - MIN - 234 rush, 1,446 yards, 120.5 y/g, 8 TDs)
4.) JJ Watt (DE - HOU - 15.5 Sacks, 15 Passes Defended, 49 Tackles)
3.) Tom Brady (QB - NE - 298/460 (64.8%), 3,537 yards, 25 TDs, 4 INTs, 102.6 RAT)
2.) Aaron Rodgers (QB - GB- 279/414 (67.4%), 3,124 yards, 29 TDs, 8 INTs, 105.0 RAT)
1.) Peyton Manning (QB - DEN - 304/447 (68.0%), 3,502 yards, 29 TDs, 9 INTs, 104.6 RAT)
Peterson makes the list because he is the sole reason the Vikings are even close to the Wild Card hunt. Watt gets there because he is the best player on the league's best team, and he's having the biggest impact of any defensive player that I've seen in years. The top three are the league's best three QBs. I have Brady behind the other two because he has the best talent around him of the three, and a reliable running game. Rodgers has had to go through incredible upheaval at the receiver position and a weak o-line (he doesn't help matters), and still been very good. In the end, Manning gets it right now for having almost as good stats (in some ways, better), and doing it on a new team with new weapons, and completely changing the franchise in Denver.
More to come later in the Week.
Looking Back at Last Week's Picks
Falcons (-3) over Saints (CORRECT = 1-0 = +1000) (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
Bears (-3.5) over Seahawks (WRONG = 1-1 = -1000)
Vikings (+9) over Packers (PUSH = 1-1-1 = 0)
STL (+7.5*) over Rams (CORRECT = 2-1-1 = +1000)
Jets (-4.5) over Cardinals (WRONG = 2-2-1 = -1000)
Panthers (-2.5*) over Chiefs (WRONG = 2-3-1 = -1200)
Colts (+5) over Lions (CORRECT = 3-3-1 = +1000)
Patriots (-7) over Dolphins (PUSH = 3-3-2 = 0)
Jagaurs (+5.5) over Bills (WRONG = 3-4-2 = -1000) (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Texans (-6) over Titans (CORRECT = 4-4-2 = +1000)
Broncos (-7) over Buccaneers (CORRECT = 5-4-2 = +1000)
Browns (-3) over Raiders (CORRECT = 6-4-2 = +1000)
Bengals (-1.5) over Chargers (CORRECT = 7-4-2 = +1000)
Ravens (-8.5) over Steelers (WRONG = 7-5-2 = -1000)
Eagles (+10) over Cowboys (CORRECT = 8-5-2 = +1000)
Giants (-2.5) over Redskins (WRONG = 8-6-2 = -1000)
Week 13: 8-6-2 (LOCK: 1-0; UPSET: 0-1) (+1,800)
Year-to-Date: 106-79-7 (LOCK: 11-2; UPSET: 9-4) (+26,800)
Best Picks: Nothing really that close this week.
Power Rankings
AFC
Welcome to the "Insert Average Overranked QB Here" Sweepstakes*
* - for the rest of the season, the blurbs for this section will be really, really short.
16.) Kansas City Chiefs (2-10 = 188-322)
I'm happy they got their win, for more than one reason. Of course, there is the obvious reason of them fighting through the adversity of losing a teammate (a teammate that, let's remember, killed someone), and also the reason that they will avoid losing all their games at home. That should never happen.
15.) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10 = 206-342)
I guess Chad Henne wouldn't make that team decent all of a sudden, huh? Also, is Maurice Jones-Drew even alive at this point?
14.) Oakland Raiders (3-9 = 235-376)
No one can stat-pad like Carson Palmer, who is going to have the worst 4,500 yard season of all time. Same with Brandon Myers, who is even more quietly having a good season at Tight End.
13.) Tennessee Titans (4-8 = 248-359)
Well, their defense didn't quit, but the offense kept giving the ball away. You can't do any of that if you want to beat a 10-1 team.
12.) New York Jets (5-7 = 228-296)
Personally, I don't think Greg McElroy is the answer, but I hope he gets the rest of the season to prove himself. It will help that he gets to face a soft slate of defenses.
11.) San Diego Chargers (4-8 = 258-257)
Something is very, very wrong with Philip Rivers. I excused his lackluster 2011 season as a one-off abberation, but this is now really wrong. He doesn't have that beautiful deep ball. In the end, it looks like Philip Rivers will flame out far earlier than anyone would have imagined.
10.) Miami Dolphins (5-7 = 227-249)
Good performance by that defense, but I am worried about Ryan Tannehill. He was OK against Seattle, but he missed open guys all game against New England. Not a good sign to play that way against a bad defense.
9.) Buffalo Bills (5-7 = 277-337)
Good win for a team that has at least remained competitive and interesting throughout this season. It could have been so much more though.
8.) Cleveland Browns (4-8 = 229-265)
They play the Chiefs next, and have a chance to get to 5 wins and win three straight games. That defense really is good, and they have a solid core. Just find a QB, for once.
The Muddled Mess of Mediocrity
7.) Indianapolis Colts (8-4 = 265-306)
I have no idea how they won. I have no idea how Luck could have 30 incompletions and three picks, and the Colts still be able to win. I have no idea how Calvin Johnson didn't have 250 yards receiving. I have no idea how they were able to pull that off. I have no idea how I might get my wish and the Colts drawing Baltimore in Round 1.
6.) Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5 = 254-230)
That was a huge win, with the Bengals also winning, as they stay level for the #6 seed with Ben presumably back this weekend. They have a chance to run the table with two easy games, and then a trip to Dallas and that gauntlet game against Cincinnati. That defense continues to improve each week, and is now starting to get turnovers. Whoever Cortez Allen is, he is playing really well at corner.
5.) Cincinnati Bengals (7-5 = 302-260)
Take care of business. That is what the Bengals failed to do against the Dolphins and Browns earlier this year, but that is what they've done the last two weeks, blowing out the Raiders and then going to San Diego in a tricky game and beating them. Their schedule is a bit harder than Pittsburgh's down the stretch, but they still have a chance.
The Team that Can't Possibly go to New Orleans, Could They?
4.) Baltimore Ravens (9-3 = 303-242)
Well, the worst 9-2 team of all time (as judged by how people perceived them) is now just one of the worst 9-3 teams of all time. How could the Ravens blow a 13-3, and 20-13 lead at home against a Charlie Batch led team. The Ravens got one of the biggest breaks of all time, with Roethlisberger's injury coinciding with both games against Baltimore, and they couldn't take advantage. They still have a shot at a bye, but it will be tough. Either way, I don't think anyone will pick them to go on the road in the Divisional Round and win if they get there.
One of These Three Will be in New Orleans, Won't They?
3.) New England Patriots (9-3 = 430-260)
The Patriots finally faced a real defense and a team that wouldn't butt-fumble, and despite still getting some breaks (the Dolphins punter going out there with them greasy hands), the Patriots looked mortal. It took a week, but we might be seeing the real impact of losing Gronkowski. Everyone remaining is coverable. Brandon Lloyd was totally taken away. The run game didn't work (admittedly, it did when they needed it to late). The o-line took a hit. He better be back soon for them.
2.) Denver Broncos (9-3 = 349-240)
The Broncos are doing what the Colts perfected, which is giving up garbage time points to make games seem closer than they were. They did this against the Chargers (winning 30-23 instead of 30-16), and did it again here. Matt Prater is now missing field goals. That said, they made a good offense look totally average, and took over after a slow second half. It is easy for them to look past these games to that showdown with Baltimore, but trailing at half time woke them up, and they woke up in a rage.
1.) Houston Texans (11-1 = 351-221)
If they win next week, not only will they almost assuredly get the #1 seed, but they will have one of the best resumes of any recent team (maybe with the exception of the '07 and '10 Pats) in terms of who they beat. Anyway, the defense returned to form, and the offense did just enough, as they always seem to do. Next week is huge, and getting Jonathan Joseph back for the game is about as big.
NFC
Welcome to the "Insert Average Overranked QB Here" Sweepstakes
16.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-9 = 217-320)
Nick Foles looked good. He looked confident. Bryce Brown looked even better. The defense was just terrible. Kudos to CaptainComeback, but the Eagles have allowed opposing QBs to have a passer rating above 120 for the 6th straight game.
15.) Arizona Cardinals (4-8 = 186-234)
The defense looked good, and Patrick Peterson looked even better. The offense was just terrible. How can Ryan Lindley continue to be played. The only reason I can think of is Ken Whisenhunt is basically firing himself at this point.
14.) Carolina Panthers (3-9 = 235-292)
Tough position for them, but they should have been able to win that game. The Panthers played it like they weren't even aware the Chiefs only true ability on offense is their run game.
13.) Detroit Lions (4-8 = 300-315)
They could so easily be 7-5 right now, as they've blown three straight home games. The Lions will rue their missed chances, but I still do like this team long term.
The Even More Muddled Mess of Mediocrity
12.) St. Louis Rams (5-6-1 = 221-267)
They are 4-0-1 against other NFC West teams. Their only game left is @SEA, which seems like it would probably be a loss, but if the Rams could win that game, they might be the worst team ever to go undefeated in their division. They play really tough and Janoris Jenkins has really come on the last couple of weeks. He has a bright future, as does that team.
11.) New Orleans Saints (5-7 = 321-327)
I want to make an assertion: Discounting Philip Rivers because of his regression, Drew Brees is the most run-game dependent great QB of this era. He has yet to really have a great season with a bad run game, something Peyton has done all the time, and something Brady, Rodgers, Eli and Ben have done in the past.
10.) Minnesota Vikings (6-6 = 262-272)
They have an issue at QB that needs addressing. Christian Ponder might do a fine poor-man's-Rich-Gannon impression, but he is definitely not the long term answer in any rational line of thinking. They are wasting away Adrian Peterson's incredible career (although you can make the argument that his fumbles played a part in wasting away the 2009 NFC Title Game), and it is sad to see. He is so good, but the QB is so average, that the team is stuck being third banana in a two-team division.
9.) Dallas Cowboys (6-6 = 280-295)
Good win by the Cowboys, who could have folded numerous times, but it folding is hard to do when playing the Eagles defense as currently constituted. I'm just so grateful that they gave up that punt return late which allowed the Eagles to cover. Thank you so much, 'Boys. The Cowboys still have a shot at the division, but they have to win at least one of their two games against the AFC North.
8.) Washington Redskins (6-6 = 312-301)
They have a realistic chance of winning the division, but I don't think they will pull it off with the schedule they have coming up. They still host Dallas (who would love to pull some revenge off), and a trip to Cleveland could be tricky. That said, the schedule is easier than the Giants. They actually have a shot at the division, which is scary.
7.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6 = 333-285)
They looked really inferior in that game, despite being ahead at halftime. Josh Freeman just couldn't do anything after a hot start in the first quarter, but that isn't a surprise against what is becoming a really good pass defense. Their defense played well, but this team is still a few steps away. What scares me, though, is I could have written the exact same first three sentences about the 2010 Buccaneers.
The Team Who's Rookie QB and Flaky Play on the Road Will End Their Chances
6.) Seattle Seahawks (7-5 = 242-202)
Big, big win for a frustrating team. They blow multiple leads to the Dolphins one week and then drive 97 and 80 yards to win the game against the Bears. Great game by Russell Wilson when his run game wasn't exactly working. I would sign up for a playoff rematch right now. That said, I fear for that type of team in the playoffs.
The Only Fun Race Left
5.) Green Bay Packers (8-4 = 296-259)
I still have them behind Chicago because outside of two games (@ HOU, @ STL), their offense hasn't clicked all year. Even yesterday, Aaron Rodgers had a good game, but the team deservedly just mustered 23 points. They haven't played great at home all year long, which makes next weeks game more interesting as they host Detroit on SNF. Their defense did look a bit better though, and they should get Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson back soon.
4.) Chicago Bears (8-4 = 294-198)
Another game they should have won. It comes down to this, if they win their Week 15 game at home against the Packers, they can hold onto the division, and maybe even still get a bye. On the other side, they could drop to the #6 seed because the Seahawks have the head-to-head over the Bears. Jay Cutler looked good, but for the second time in three games, the defense looked a little slow.
The Three Teams that will Most Likely Get to New Orleans, but are Far Less Sure Things than those Three in the AFC
3.) New York Giants (7-5 = 321-243)
I still think the Giants pull together, finish 3-1 and win the division, but that was a tough and potentially devastating loss for the Giants. Their defense looked completely unable to stop the run, again. The Giants right now have to man up and go on a run, or they will blow a division they once led by two games. For a team that is used to stepping up in big moments, that was a failure.
2.) San Francisco 49ers (8-3-1 = 289-171)
I really wanted another tie for them. I would wonder if they tied both games if they could petition the NFL to just give the Rams and 49ers a win and a loss. Anyway, this is the first question to Jim Harbaugh's plan to go with Colin Kaepernick. His reasoning was the Kap had the "hot hand", and now that hand is no longer all that hot. My guess is he stick with Kaepernick, but that decision looks far more precarious now than it did last week.
1.) Atlanta Falcons (11-1 = 317-229)
The NFC has now become way more muddled than the NFC, and it is because of that that I have the Falcons, the worst 11-1 team of all time, at #1. They still haven't lost a home game, and their defense has been solid all year long. Despite the gobs of people that will pick against them come divisional weekend, that will not be an easy place to play. They won't lose 48-21, I'll tell you that.
Playoff Projections
AFC
7.) Cincinnati Bengals (10-6 - vs DAL (W), @ PHI (W), @ PIT (L), @ BAL (W))
******************
6.) Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6 - vs SD (W), @ DAL (L), vs CIN (W), vs CLE (W))*
5.) Indianapolis Colts (11-5 - vs TEN (W), @ HOU (L), @ KC (W), vs HOU (W))
4.) Baltimore Ravens (11-5 - @ WAS (W), vs DEN (L), vs NYG (W), @ CIN (L))
3.) New England Patriots (12-4 - vs HOU (L), vs SF (L), @ JAX (W), vs MIA (W))
2.) Denver Broncos (13-3 - @ OAK (W), @ BAL (W), vs CLE (W), vs KC (W))
1.) Houston Texans (14-2 - @ NE (W), vs. IND (W), vs MIN (W), @ IND (L))
* - Steelers get in over the Bengals because of head-to-head record (2-0)
NFC
6.) Seattle Seahawks (10-6 - vs ARZ (W), @ BUF (W), vs SF (L), vs STL (W))
5.) Green Bay Packers (11-5 - vs DET (W), @ CHI (L), vs TEN (W), @ MIN (W))
4.) New York Giants (10-6 - vs NO (W), @ ATL (W), @ BAL (L), vs PHI (W))
3.) San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1 - vs MIA (W), @ NE (L), @ SEA (W), vs ARZ (W))
2.) Chicago Bears (12-4 - @ MIN (W), vs GB (W), @ ARZ (W), @ DET (W))
1.) Atlanta Falcons (14-2 - @ CAR (W), vs NYG (L), @ DET (W), vs TB (W))
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
16.) Kansas City Chiefs (2-10) @ Cleveland Browns (4-8) (1:00 - CBS)
15.) New York Jets (5-7) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10) (1:00 - CBS)
14.) St. Louis Rams (5-6-1) @ Buffalo Bills (5-7) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "What Actually Motivates the Teams in These Games" Sunday, with six teams, none of them with any realistic playoff chances (how bad are they: The Rams probably have the best chance). Anyway, the big stories are the Jets can string their fans along one more game, the Browns can actually get a three game win streak, and the Rams or Bills will have six wins.
13.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-9) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6) (1:00 - FOX)
12.) Miami Dolphins (5-7) @ San Francisco 49ers (8-3-1) (4:05 - CBS)
I call it "If teams play games between a good team and a bad team, does it actually really happen?" Sunday, as I have really nothing to say about these teams. The Eagles have a little bit of momentum on offense, but the Eagles pass defense has been beyond atrocious since they fired Juan Castillo.
11.) Arizona Cardinals (4-8) @ Seattle Seahawks (7-5) (4:25 - FOX)
10.) Denver Broncos (9-3) @ Oakland Raiders (3-9) (TNF - NLFN)
9.) Tennessee Titans (4-8) @ Indianapolis Colts (8-4) (1:00 - CBS)
8.) Chicago Bears (8-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (6-6) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Divisional Games are Always Either Really Interesting, or Really Disappointing, and this Weekend Will Prove It" Sunday. Here we have four divisional games where one team is good and the other isn't. The Cardinals will look to avoid a 9th straight loss, and Ryan Lindley will look to avoid being the worst QB imagineable again. The Broncos get a short week, which could be tricky, I guess. The Colts look to essentially clinch a playoff spot, and the Bears look to keep pace with the Packers before their Week 15 game.
7.) San Diego Chargers (4-8) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) (1:00 - CBS)
6.) Atlanta Falcons (11-1) @ Carolina Panthers (3-9) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "If Trap Games are Real, Here are Two of Them" Sunday, as the Steelers, hopefully with Roethlisberger back for the game, get a reeling Chargers team. The Steelers have generally owned the Chargers during the Rivers era in San Diego, but there is always a chance for things to change. The Falcons passed another test, and get another one here against a semi-dangerous Panthers team who came within one bomb to Roddy White of beating Atlanta in Atlanta.
5.) Dallas Cowboys (6-6) @ Cincinnati Bengals (7-5) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Battle of the Wild Card Hopefuls" Sunday, as both teams look to keep pace in teh Wild Card race. The Cowboys are further away, having lost to Seattle earlier in the season (and Chicago, if they continue to fall), but are playing well right now. The Bengals are playing really well, and have dominated their last two home games. This is a type of game the Bengals should win, and they need to as that Week 16 game looms larger and larger.
4.) New Orleans Saints (5-7) @ New York Giants (7-5) (4:25 - FOX)
3.) Detroit Lions (4-8) @ Green Bay Packers (8-4) (SNF - ESPN)
2.) Baltimore Ravens (9-3) @ Washington Redskins (6-6) (1:00 - CBS)
Keeping Pace is important, and all these three better teams have to. The Giants have historically been awful against teh Saints during the Brees era, including giving up 48 and 49 points to the Saints in their last two meetings. Both of those games were against better Saints teams in the Superdome, though. The Lions should have beaten the Packers (just like they should have beaten the Texans and Colts) three weeks ago, and get a shot to return the favor here, and the Ravens look to keep their two-game lead, and outside shot at a bye, over the Steelers. That is also a nice rivalry game, and for the first time, the Redskins really have something to bring to the table with RGIII.
1.) Houston Texans (11-1) @ New England Patriots (9-3) (MNF - ESPN)
And now we get to the best game of the Week, and at least on paper going in, one of the best games of the year. If the Texans win this game, just give them the #1 seed. They would be 12-1, have a two game lead over the rest of the conference, and have a head-to-head win over the Patriots, Broncos and Ravens. The Patriots, with a win, would be in striking distance of stealing that #1 seed, and put them in great position to hold onto at least the #2 seed. It should be a contrast in styles. Pass-heavy teams have done well against Houston, but they should have Jonathan Joseph back, which should help.
Award Watch
Coach of the Year
3.) Mike Smith (ATL)
2.) Gary Kubiak (HOU)
1.) Lovie Smith (CHI)
I'm not sure if an interim has ever won the award, so I'm not putting Bruce Arians here. I have Lovie Smith on top just because of how good his defense has been, but Kubiak and Smith have good shots as they lead the best teams in a weak year overall for miracle stories.
DROTY
3.) Chandler Jones (DE - NE - 6 sacks, 3 FF, 18 Tackles)
2.) Janoris Jenkins (CB - STL -3 INTs, 2 FRs, 3 TDs, 44 Tackles)
1.) Lavonte David (OLB - TB - 87 Tackles, 1 INT, 3 FF)
All three players are in different situations right now. Chandler Jones, who is currently hurt, has cooled off recently, while Janoris Jenkins has three TDs in the last two games. In the end, I'm placing the most consistent player at the top, as Lavonte David has been key in helping the Buccaneers become the league's best run defense.
OROTY
3.) Doug Martin (RB - TB -236 rush, 1,106 yards, 4.7 y/r, 9 TDs, 32 rec, 374 yds)
2.) Robert Griffin III (QB - WAS -
1.) Andrew Luck (QB - IND - 279/503 (55.5%), 3,596 yards, 17 TDs, 16 INTs, 5 rush TDs)
The two QBs are now taking over (I guess Russell Wilson is there too, but he inherited a better team). For right now, because of their better record (by two games), their close wins and his great performance in close games, I'm going with Luck, who is asked to do more, throw deeper, and carry a worse team, over RGIII.
DPOTY
3.) Charles Tillman (CB - CHI - 2 INTs, 2 TDs, 2 FRs, 8 FFs, 58 Tackles)
2.) Von Miller (OLB - DEN - 15.0 Sacks, 5 FFs, 1 INT, 1 TD, 44 Tackles)
1.) JJ Watt (DE - HOU - 15.5 Sacks, 15 Passes Defended, 49 Tackles)
Tillman is holding onto that last spot, but Aldon Smith (who is still a sack machine but with little else) from his early season performance, with TDs, and a ridiculous amount of forced fumbles. Von Miller has been great getting to the passer, dominant against the run, and now with a game-changing interception. In the end, though, JJ Watt is having one of the greatest seasons ever for a 3-4 DE. He is now not #1 in sacks (but just 2 behind Aldon), but still incredibly high at Passes Defensed for a lineman, and dominant against the rush.
OPOTY
3.) Peyton Manning (QB - DEN - 304/447 (68.0%), 3,502 yards, 29 TDs, 9 INTs, 104.6 RAT)
2.) Calvin Johnson (WR - DET - 86 Rec, 1,428 yards, 119.0 y/g, 5 TDs)
1.) Adrian Peterson (RB - MIN - 234 rush, 1,446 yards, 120.5 y/g, 8 TDs)
Peyton gets the nod for being the best QB so far, but the top two are having incredible years. Calvin is on pace to beat Jerry Rice's record for Yards in a season. His TD numbers are down, but that is mostly because the Lions are using him almost as a decoy in the red zone. I'm giving it to Peterson right now, though, because he's come back from ACL surgery and having his best year yet. He has a legitimate shot at 2,000 yards. He has no passing game to relieve pressure off of him, but he's continued to play extremely well.
MVP
5.) Adrian Peterson (RB - MIN - 234 rush, 1,446 yards, 120.5 y/g, 8 TDs)
4.) JJ Watt (DE - HOU - 15.5 Sacks, 15 Passes Defended, 49 Tackles)
3.) Tom Brady (QB - NE - 298/460 (64.8%), 3,537 yards, 25 TDs, 4 INTs, 102.6 RAT)
2.) Aaron Rodgers (QB - GB- 279/414 (67.4%), 3,124 yards, 29 TDs, 8 INTs, 105.0 RAT)
1.) Peyton Manning (QB - DEN - 304/447 (68.0%), 3,502 yards, 29 TDs, 9 INTs, 104.6 RAT)
Peterson makes the list because he is the sole reason the Vikings are even close to the Wild Card hunt. Watt gets there because he is the best player on the league's best team, and he's having the biggest impact of any defensive player that I've seen in years. The top three are the league's best three QBs. I have Brady behind the other two because he has the best talent around him of the three, and a reliable running game. Rodgers has had to go through incredible upheaval at the receiver position and a weak o-line (he doesn't help matters), and still been very good. In the end, Manning gets it right now for having almost as good stats (in some ways, better), and doing it on a new team with new weapons, and completely changing the franchise in Denver.
More to come later in the Week.
