Is it really Week 12 already? The NFL season just goes by too quickly.
Houston Texans (9-1) @ Detroit Lions (4-6) (HOU -3)
This is a really tough spot for Houston. They are staring down back-to-back road games coming up (including the all important trip to New England at the end of the streak), and they just played a long OT game the last week. Road teams usually don't do well on Thursday, but that goes for the night games. Even then, the one exception is the road team will do fine if they are just appreciably better, and the Texans are. That was a fluke game. No way they don't tackle that well again, and they should get the same pressure on Stafford that the Packers did. I don't see the Lions getting to Schaub the way they got to Rodgers because of the Texans superior pass-blocking line. Plus, that OT scare has kind of devalued the Texans here. They are FIVE games better than the Lions, and the Lions haven't exactly been playing too well recently. This line should be higher, and that makes this pick easy.
Texans 27 Lions 17 (HOU -3)
Washington Redskins (4-6) @ Dallas Cowboys (5-5) (DAL -3)
The Cowboys have actually covered all but one game on Thanksgiving since Romo was the starter, and that was last year's close 20-19 win over Miami. They usually get scrub teams (the '06 Bucs, '07 Jets, '08 Seahawks and '09 Raiders) which makes their task easier, but the Redskins are far from a scrub team. They've really become better in coverage after their pass rush was washed away with injuries to Orakpo and Carriker. This will also be the Cowboys first look at RGIII. That is probably the key matchup, and I actually like how the Cowboys match up with RGIII. They have the speed on the edges in Ware to contain him. That said, looking forward at these picks, I am barely picking a handful of underdogs to even cover, so I'll go with underdogs where I can make an argument, and this is one.
Redskins 27 Cowboys 24 (WAS +3)
New England Patriots (7-3) @ New York Jets (4-6) (NE -7)
If the Jets have any pride in their team, if they have any belief in their chances in 2012, if they have any shot at the playoffs, they win this game. It is perfectly set up for them. They are at home on a short week. Their opponent is missing three key players. Gronkowski is the biggest, but rookie stud Chandler Jones and Logan Mankins are both out as well. They usually play the Patriots well (though never in the 2nd matchup each year under Rex, which have ended 31-14, 45-3 and 37-16). That is just overwhelming me right now, especially since this is the worst of any of those Jets teams.
Patriots 34 Jets 23 (NE -7)
Oakland Raiders (3-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals (5-5) (CIN -8)
The return of Carson Palmer has the Bengals better off anyway, but not that much better. It may easy to take the Bengals here, as they've been quality each of the past two weeks, and are now fully in the Wild Card race, but let's remember these same Bengals dropped four straight games at one point, including losses to Miami and Cleveland. Anyway, I can't see the Raiders winning, but can they keep this close? I'm conflicted because I've backed the Raiders to cover recently and been burned, but I don't want to jump off of them the one week they do cover. That said, the Bengals, quietly, have a really good pass rush, and defense overall. I definitely can see them slowing down the Raiders enough. I'll go with the head.
Raiders 17 Bengals 30 (CIN -8)
Buffalo Bills (4-6) @ Indianapolis Colts (6-4) (IND -2)
The Colts have been really good at home all year, and they have admirably taken care of business in all but one of their games that they should win (save for one fluke 80-yard TD to Cecil Shorts). The Bills are in better form right now, coming off of a much needed win and extra-rest, while the Colts enter off of a disastrous loss in New England, but I like the Colts here. Not much to say about this game. The Colts, despite their ills, are still the better team, and should win.
Bills 17 Colts 23 (IND -2)
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) @ Cleveland Browns (2-8) (PICK)
I'm assuming Charlie Batch is starting. The last time we saw Charlie in real action was when he came in during Ben's suspension in 2010, where he was competent in wins over Tennessee and Tampa Bay, and a loss to Baltimore. The Browns have been better recently, but I can see them not getting up for the Steelers in the same way without Ben, and I can see the Steelers getting up for this game even more without Ben. Being a pick, I love the position here. I can't see the Steelers losing another game heading into the battle next weekend at M&T.
Steelers 17 Browns 13 (PIT - PICK)
Denver Broncos (7-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-9) (DEN -10)
This is a high line. There are various reasons why I would pick against the Broncos covering. First, this is a road division game at 1PM, and more interestingly, Romeo Crennel defenses have always done well against Peyton (remember, the second Romeo left New England, Peyton has been great against the Pats). That said, all the Broncos need to do, realistically, is break 20 here to have a great shot at covering. The Chiefs offense is awful, whether it is Brady Quinn or Matt Cassel, and the Broncos defense, and I'm serious, is a Top-5 defense in the NFL right now. The Chiefs haven't shown any fight at home against lesser teams, and I can't see them really doing it here either.
Broncos 27 Chiefs 10 (DEN -10)
Tennessee Titans (4-6) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) (TEN -3)
The Jaguars have been atrocious at home, but this is a different story, as Chad Henne is now the official starter with Blaine Gabbert on IR (and his overall career in critical condition). Henne looked good last week, and I have to think the Jaguars bother showing up for at least one home game. This is a big game for the Titans, as a loss all but eliminates them from any playoff picture. The last time we saw the Titans, they were busy intercepting and dominating Miami in arguably the biggest shock scoreline (Titans 37; Dolphins 3) of the season. The bye might have cooled them off. I'll be honest, I'm really trying to talk myself into an underdog here. I want to think the Jaguars have some pride, and they looked good last weekend. They have to win another game some time, right??
Titans 20 Jaguars 24 (JAX +3)
Minnesota Vikings (6-4) @ Chicago Bears (7-3) (CHI -6.5)
So, it looks like the Bears will return to being a real NFL team now that Cutler is back. Jay Cutler is far, far from a great QB, but he really can make that Bears offense look decent, compared to the utter filth that we saw the last 1.5 games. Anyway, now that Cutler is back, the Bears should win this game. The Vikings are without Harvin, and I guess I can see Adrian Peterson potentially go off, but I can't see that doing enough.
Vikings 13 Bears 24 (CHI -6.5)
Atlanta Falcons (9-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4) (ATL -1)
Yes, the Falcons are not as good as a 9-1 team. But they aren't exactly a bad team that some are making them out to be. It is like so many people are so mad that they keep winning games (and that they've been one-and-done in their recent playoff trips) they are envisioning a far worse team then the Falcons really are. As for the Buccaneers, they have been a good team, but in their biggest game (vs NO), the lost, and they nearly blew a huge lead in Oakland two weeks ago. There is a lot of judgements propping up the Bucs and batting down the Falcons, and I just don't like it.
Falcons 30 Buccaneers 23 (ATL -1)
Seattle Seahawks (6-4) @ Miami Dolphins (4-6) (SEA -3)
Interesting game. The Seahawks have shown a slight ability to travel this year, but they still haven't played really well away from Qwest, including a close comeback win in Carolina. The Dolphins have been awful the last couple weeks, but losses by the Colts and Steelers have at least made them relevant one more week. They need this game, and I haven't picked any underdogs really so far, which annoys me, especially since underdogs have been doing so good recently.
Seahawks 17 Dolphins 20 (MIA +3)
Baltimore Ravens (8-2) @ San Diego Chargers (4-6) (BAL -1)
The Chargers are basically playing for Norv Turner's job here, and possibly even Philip Rivers as well. The Ravens are hurting all over, and have a much bigger game coming up next week against the Steelers, a game in which they can essentially ice the division. They can almost literally do it with two wins in the next two games, but that's for another day. The Ravens haven't traveled well either, and could be susceptible to the Chargers passing game. Last time they played was a late season game last year where the Chargers blew the doors off of the Ravens, costing the Ravens the #1 seed in the AFC. I see the winner repeating, if not as one-sided.
Ravens 20 Chargers 27 (SD +1)
St. Louis Rams (3-6-1) @ Arizona Cardinals (4-6) (ARZ -2.5)
These two played what was thought to be a surprisingly meaningful game back in Week 5, with the 4-0 Cardinals visiting the 2-2 Rams on a Thursday Night. The teams are a combined 1-10-1 since, with the only win coming against, obviously, the other. The Cardinals still have a pretty good performance record at home. The Rams have the pass rush to absolutely kill the Cardinals, while the Cardinals are still starting sir Ryan Lindley. It seems way too obvious to pick the easy underdog, but sometimes ease makes sense.
Rams 20 Cardinals 16 (STL +1)
San Francisco 49ers (7-2-1) @ New Orleans Saints (5-5) (SF -1)
All signs point to Colin Kaepernick starting, which personally, I think is a mistake on multiple levels. First, he's trusting a green player with a Super Bowl caliber team. This isn't the 1980's, where a Jim Hostettler could take over late in the year for Phil Simms to lead the Giants to a Super Bowl. I mean, Tom Brady got 14 starts. Also, this starts a bad precedent for QBs (or any players) losing their jobs because they were unfortunate enough to get concussed. Anyway, as for this game, after all I just said, I like the 49ers. The Saints still have beaten just one good team, and that was a team that would let them play their wide-open passing game. The last time the Saints played a good defense, Brees barely completed half of his passes, the Saints had one of their worst offensive games in the Brees era, and they lost 34-14, with a garbage-time TD included there. It won't be as one sided, because the Saints are at home, and they aren't facing Peyton Manning, but I still think they'll lose.
49ers 27 Saints 20 (SF -1)
Green Bay Packers (7-3) @ New York Giants (6-4) (NYG -3)
Big game. Fun game. Most of the prime-time games have been duds, even the ones that seem great going in, and this one seems great. They played a great game last year in the regular season, with the 11-0 Packers beating the 6-5 (losers of three straight) Giants 38-35, and then of course the Giants returned the favor with a 37-20 beatdown in Lambeau in the playoffs. The Packers will again be missing a cadre of players, which despite a win, definitely seemed to hurt them against the Lions. The worst development was bad protection for Rodgers, again, which might even be worse against the Giants. The Giants need this game (though not as much, given the Cowboys loss earlier in the week), and I think they'll get it. I would buy half the point here to make in 2.5, but either way, I think they will cover.
Packers 24 Giants 31 (NYG -3)
Carolina Panthers (2-8) @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-7) (CAR -2)
Who Gives A Shit.....
Panthers 27 Eagles 16 (CAR -2)
Enjoy the Games!!
Houston Texans (9-1) @ Detroit Lions (4-6) (HOU -3)
This is a really tough spot for Houston. They are staring down back-to-back road games coming up (including the all important trip to New England at the end of the streak), and they just played a long OT game the last week. Road teams usually don't do well on Thursday, but that goes for the night games. Even then, the one exception is the road team will do fine if they are just appreciably better, and the Texans are. That was a fluke game. No way they don't tackle that well again, and they should get the same pressure on Stafford that the Packers did. I don't see the Lions getting to Schaub the way they got to Rodgers because of the Texans superior pass-blocking line. Plus, that OT scare has kind of devalued the Texans here. They are FIVE games better than the Lions, and the Lions haven't exactly been playing too well recently. This line should be higher, and that makes this pick easy.
Texans 27 Lions 17 (HOU -3)
Washington Redskins (4-6) @ Dallas Cowboys (5-5) (DAL -3)
The Cowboys have actually covered all but one game on Thanksgiving since Romo was the starter, and that was last year's close 20-19 win over Miami. They usually get scrub teams (the '06 Bucs, '07 Jets, '08 Seahawks and '09 Raiders) which makes their task easier, but the Redskins are far from a scrub team. They've really become better in coverage after their pass rush was washed away with injuries to Orakpo and Carriker. This will also be the Cowboys first look at RGIII. That is probably the key matchup, and I actually like how the Cowboys match up with RGIII. They have the speed on the edges in Ware to contain him. That said, looking forward at these picks, I am barely picking a handful of underdogs to even cover, so I'll go with underdogs where I can make an argument, and this is one.
Redskins 27 Cowboys 24 (WAS +3)
New England Patriots (7-3) @ New York Jets (4-6) (NE -7)
If the Jets have any pride in their team, if they have any belief in their chances in 2012, if they have any shot at the playoffs, they win this game. It is perfectly set up for them. They are at home on a short week. Their opponent is missing three key players. Gronkowski is the biggest, but rookie stud Chandler Jones and Logan Mankins are both out as well. They usually play the Patriots well (though never in the 2nd matchup each year under Rex, which have ended 31-14, 45-3 and 37-16). That is just overwhelming me right now, especially since this is the worst of any of those Jets teams.
Patriots 34 Jets 23 (NE -7)
Oakland Raiders (3-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals (5-5) (CIN -8)
The return of Carson Palmer has the Bengals better off anyway, but not that much better. It may easy to take the Bengals here, as they've been quality each of the past two weeks, and are now fully in the Wild Card race, but let's remember these same Bengals dropped four straight games at one point, including losses to Miami and Cleveland. Anyway, I can't see the Raiders winning, but can they keep this close? I'm conflicted because I've backed the Raiders to cover recently and been burned, but I don't want to jump off of them the one week they do cover. That said, the Bengals, quietly, have a really good pass rush, and defense overall. I definitely can see them slowing down the Raiders enough. I'll go with the head.
Raiders 17 Bengals 30 (CIN -8)
Buffalo Bills (4-6) @ Indianapolis Colts (6-4) (IND -2)
The Colts have been really good at home all year, and they have admirably taken care of business in all but one of their games that they should win (save for one fluke 80-yard TD to Cecil Shorts). The Bills are in better form right now, coming off of a much needed win and extra-rest, while the Colts enter off of a disastrous loss in New England, but I like the Colts here. Not much to say about this game. The Colts, despite their ills, are still the better team, and should win.
Bills 17 Colts 23 (IND -2)
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) @ Cleveland Browns (2-8) (PICK)
I'm assuming Charlie Batch is starting. The last time we saw Charlie in real action was when he came in during Ben's suspension in 2010, where he was competent in wins over Tennessee and Tampa Bay, and a loss to Baltimore. The Browns have been better recently, but I can see them not getting up for the Steelers in the same way without Ben, and I can see the Steelers getting up for this game even more without Ben. Being a pick, I love the position here. I can't see the Steelers losing another game heading into the battle next weekend at M&T.
Steelers 17 Browns 13 (PIT - PICK)
Denver Broncos (7-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-9) (DEN -10)
This is a high line. There are various reasons why I would pick against the Broncos covering. First, this is a road division game at 1PM, and more interestingly, Romeo Crennel defenses have always done well against Peyton (remember, the second Romeo left New England, Peyton has been great against the Pats). That said, all the Broncos need to do, realistically, is break 20 here to have a great shot at covering. The Chiefs offense is awful, whether it is Brady Quinn or Matt Cassel, and the Broncos defense, and I'm serious, is a Top-5 defense in the NFL right now. The Chiefs haven't shown any fight at home against lesser teams, and I can't see them really doing it here either.
Broncos 27 Chiefs 10 (DEN -10)
Tennessee Titans (4-6) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) (TEN -3)
The Jaguars have been atrocious at home, but this is a different story, as Chad Henne is now the official starter with Blaine Gabbert on IR (and his overall career in critical condition). Henne looked good last week, and I have to think the Jaguars bother showing up for at least one home game. This is a big game for the Titans, as a loss all but eliminates them from any playoff picture. The last time we saw the Titans, they were busy intercepting and dominating Miami in arguably the biggest shock scoreline (Titans 37; Dolphins 3) of the season. The bye might have cooled them off. I'll be honest, I'm really trying to talk myself into an underdog here. I want to think the Jaguars have some pride, and they looked good last weekend. They have to win another game some time, right??
Titans 20 Jaguars 24 (JAX +3)
Minnesota Vikings (6-4) @ Chicago Bears (7-3) (CHI -6.5)
So, it looks like the Bears will return to being a real NFL team now that Cutler is back. Jay Cutler is far, far from a great QB, but he really can make that Bears offense look decent, compared to the utter filth that we saw the last 1.5 games. Anyway, now that Cutler is back, the Bears should win this game. The Vikings are without Harvin, and I guess I can see Adrian Peterson potentially go off, but I can't see that doing enough.
Vikings 13 Bears 24 (CHI -6.5)
Atlanta Falcons (9-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4) (ATL -1)
Yes, the Falcons are not as good as a 9-1 team. But they aren't exactly a bad team that some are making them out to be. It is like so many people are so mad that they keep winning games (and that they've been one-and-done in their recent playoff trips) they are envisioning a far worse team then the Falcons really are. As for the Buccaneers, they have been a good team, but in their biggest game (vs NO), the lost, and they nearly blew a huge lead in Oakland two weeks ago. There is a lot of judgements propping up the Bucs and batting down the Falcons, and I just don't like it.
Falcons 30 Buccaneers 23 (ATL -1)
Seattle Seahawks (6-4) @ Miami Dolphins (4-6) (SEA -3)
Interesting game. The Seahawks have shown a slight ability to travel this year, but they still haven't played really well away from Qwest, including a close comeback win in Carolina. The Dolphins have been awful the last couple weeks, but losses by the Colts and Steelers have at least made them relevant one more week. They need this game, and I haven't picked any underdogs really so far, which annoys me, especially since underdogs have been doing so good recently.
Seahawks 17 Dolphins 20 (MIA +3)
Baltimore Ravens (8-2) @ San Diego Chargers (4-6) (BAL -1)
The Chargers are basically playing for Norv Turner's job here, and possibly even Philip Rivers as well. The Ravens are hurting all over, and have a much bigger game coming up next week against the Steelers, a game in which they can essentially ice the division. They can almost literally do it with two wins in the next two games, but that's for another day. The Ravens haven't traveled well either, and could be susceptible to the Chargers passing game. Last time they played was a late season game last year where the Chargers blew the doors off of the Ravens, costing the Ravens the #1 seed in the AFC. I see the winner repeating, if not as one-sided.
Ravens 20 Chargers 27 (SD +1)
St. Louis Rams (3-6-1) @ Arizona Cardinals (4-6) (ARZ -2.5)
These two played what was thought to be a surprisingly meaningful game back in Week 5, with the 4-0 Cardinals visiting the 2-2 Rams on a Thursday Night. The teams are a combined 1-10-1 since, with the only win coming against, obviously, the other. The Cardinals still have a pretty good performance record at home. The Rams have the pass rush to absolutely kill the Cardinals, while the Cardinals are still starting sir Ryan Lindley. It seems way too obvious to pick the easy underdog, but sometimes ease makes sense.
Rams 20 Cardinals 16 (STL +1)
San Francisco 49ers (7-2-1) @ New Orleans Saints (5-5) (SF -1)
All signs point to Colin Kaepernick starting, which personally, I think is a mistake on multiple levels. First, he's trusting a green player with a Super Bowl caliber team. This isn't the 1980's, where a Jim Hostettler could take over late in the year for Phil Simms to lead the Giants to a Super Bowl. I mean, Tom Brady got 14 starts. Also, this starts a bad precedent for QBs (or any players) losing their jobs because they were unfortunate enough to get concussed. Anyway, as for this game, after all I just said, I like the 49ers. The Saints still have beaten just one good team, and that was a team that would let them play their wide-open passing game. The last time the Saints played a good defense, Brees barely completed half of his passes, the Saints had one of their worst offensive games in the Brees era, and they lost 34-14, with a garbage-time TD included there. It won't be as one sided, because the Saints are at home, and they aren't facing Peyton Manning, but I still think they'll lose.
49ers 27 Saints 20 (SF -1)
Green Bay Packers (7-3) @ New York Giants (6-4) (NYG -3)
Big game. Fun game. Most of the prime-time games have been duds, even the ones that seem great going in, and this one seems great. They played a great game last year in the regular season, with the 11-0 Packers beating the 6-5 (losers of three straight) Giants 38-35, and then of course the Giants returned the favor with a 37-20 beatdown in Lambeau in the playoffs. The Packers will again be missing a cadre of players, which despite a win, definitely seemed to hurt them against the Lions. The worst development was bad protection for Rodgers, again, which might even be worse against the Giants. The Giants need this game (though not as much, given the Cowboys loss earlier in the week), and I think they'll get it. I would buy half the point here to make in 2.5, but either way, I think they will cover.
Packers 24 Giants 31 (NYG -3)
Carolina Panthers (2-8) @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-7) (CAR -2)
Who Gives A Shit.....
Panthers 27 Eagles 16 (CAR -2)
Enjoy the Games!!
