In Part 1 of my two-part look back at the first half of the NFL season, I'll take a quick trip down my (surprisingly good) preseason predicted standings, and then give out my first half awards.
Looking Back at my Preseason Predicted Standings
AFC
AFC East
1.) New England Patriots 12-4 (4)
So far so good. Their schedule is easy enough that going 12-4 is pretty reasonable. They probably won't have the 4 seed if they do, though.
2.) Buffalo Bills 8-8
Got this one wrong, but let's be honest, a lot of people did.
3.) New York Jets 7-9
This has a chance to be right on, but the Jets easily could do worse.
4.) Miami Dolphins 3-13
This is easily my worst AFC pick. I even made this my lock Under (for 7 wins) which is embarrassing.
AFC North
1.) Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4 (3)
This didn't look so good early, but 12-4 is not ridiculous, and the Steelers should make the playoffs.
2.) Baltimore Ravens 9-7
Because of a 5-1 start, they almost certainly won't go 9-7, but was I really that far off?
3.) Cincinnati Bengals 7-9
Despite a 3-1 start, I might have overestimated the Bengals in 2012.
4.) Cleveland Browns 5-11
They probably won't win five games, but they are good enough.
AFC South
1.) Houston Texans 13-3 (1)
Oh yeah! Unless Schaub gets injured again, 13-3 is the expectation, and they could do better.
2.) Indianapolis Colts 6-10
Before the season, I debated putting them at 8-8, but felt that would be too homerish. Anyway, I was wrong with the record, but at least I had them 2nd in the division.
3.) Tennessee Titans 5-11
Despite being putrid, they have a reasonable shot to make it to 5 wins.
4.) Jacksonville Jaguars 5-11
They have no reasonable shot to make it to 5 wins.
AFC West
1.) Denver Broncos 12-4 (2)
Again, there's a chance of hitting this, and if it does, there is a good chance to getting that #2 seed.
2.) Oakland Raiders 10-6 (5)
/wallowing head in shame
//they aren't that bad, though
3.) San Diego Chargers 9-7 (6)
This has a chance of being right. Still can't believe they dropped that game against Cleveland.
4.) Kansas City Chiefs 4-12
So many people loved KC and now have egg on their face. I am egg-free.
NFC
NFC East
1.) New York Giants 13-3 (1)
I overestimated them a little. 13-3 is still possible, but really unlikely. They still should make the playoffs though.
2.) Philadelphia Eagles 11-5 (5)
I have no idea. I have a sickness with the Eagles, really.
3.) Dallas Cowboys 7-9
This has a good shot of landing perfectly. They might do a little better with the schedule they have left, though.
4.) Washington Redskins 6-10
This has a good shot of landing perfectly.
NFC North
1.) Chicago Bears 12-4 (2)
This has a good shot of landing, and the Bears actually could easily go better than 12-4.
2.) Green Bay Packers 11-5 (5)
Another pick that could easily be right. The Pack could do better, but I still don't think this is a great team.
3.) Detroit Lions 7-9
Another pick that has a good shot of landing. I have to say, I picked a lot of teams to be average (between 7-9 wins) and almost all of them are in that range.
4.) Minnesota Vikings 3-13
This is the equivalent of picking the Dolphins to go 3-13 in the AFC. Just wrong.
NFC South
1.) Atlanta Falcons 10-6 (3)
I think they are closer to this than the 13-3 or 14-2 they will end up with, but at least I picked them to win teh division.
2.) New Orleans Saints 9-7
Probably underestimated how much Sean Payton meant, and how ill-equipped they are to run Spagnuolo's stuff.
3.) Carolina Panthers 7-9
They probably won't win seven, but, and I can't stress this enough, CAM IS NOT THE PROBLEM.
4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-11
I thought about picking them to do worse, but I'll admit I was wrong about Greg Schiano.
NFC West
1.) Seattle Seahawks 9-7 (4)
They won't win the division, but they have a good shot of getting 9 wins and getting into the playoffs.
2.) San Francisco 49ers 9-7
I bought into the regression theory. But sometimes teams that get better just stay better.
3.) Arizona Cardinals 6-10
Somehow, even with a 4-0 start, I might have overestimated the Cardinals wins, but this was pretty accurate.
4.) St. Louis Rams 4-12
They have a chance to end up 4-12, but will probably do a game or so better.
My Title Game picks:
AFC Championship: Houston (1) def. Denver (2) 30-24
This is still a good pick, and could easily happen.
NFC Championship: Chicago (2) def. New York (1) 24-21
I guess this matchup could still happen, but it probably would be in New York.
Super Bowl XLVII: Texans (A1) def. Bears (N2) 27-20
This has a good chance, but since both teams are doing so well, it probably won't happen.
First Half Awards
Most Valuable Player: JJ Watt, DE, Houston
I think Manning will overtake him eventually, but through the first half of the season, I'll give it to Watt, who has played his position better than anyone I have ever seen. He has 10.5 sacks playing 3-4 DE, which leads the NFL. This is unprecedented really. Add to that his 10 passes defended, which is basically among the tops for D-Backs. He's spearheaded that defense that lost Cushing and hasn't had the same production from Reed and Barwin that they had in 2011. He's brilliant, really.
Offensive Player of the Year: Peyton Manning, QB, Denver
Adrian Peterson and Reggie Wayne have arguments as well, but Peyton has been the best QB in the NFL. I'll remove volume stats because some QBs have played more games (Eli and Rodgers, who lead Peyton in yards and TDs, respectively), but by rate stats, Peyton is tops in completion percentage (69.5%), and yards per attempt (8.2) a tandem which is so rarely done. He is 2nd in TD% (behind Rodgers), 2nd in Yards per Game, tops in passer rating. He's tops in the advanced stats I care about (Football Outsider's DVOA and DYAR), and tops in an advanced stat I care little about (ESPN's Total QB Rating). Add to that the fact that he missed the entire season last year and is playing with new teammates.
Defensive Player of the Year: JJ Watt, DE, Houston
Just read everything I wrote in the MVP part. Charles Tillman has a good case as well with his recent spate of brilliant play.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis
RGIII led this early, and Doug Martin has been on a role recently, but Andrew Luck is the largest reason that the NFL's biggest surprise is 5-3. He's taken a team with no proven weapons after Reggie Wayne, a sad o-line and fungible backs and led them to being a pretty good offenses. Just watching him and you can see that there is something special going on right now in Indianapolis.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Chandler Jones, DE, New England
Honestly, other than Luke Kuechly who's picked it up recently, and Janoris Jenkins, who started out well, and Bruce Irvin, who's slowed down, there isn't much competition. Chandler Jones has been great from the beginning, and the Patriots have needed it because their pass rush otherwise has regressed a lot from last season after losing dual 10-sack men Anderson and Carter. Jones has been good against the run as well. Bill Belichick traded up in the draft for once, and it worked.
Coach of the Year: Lovie Smith, Chicago
You can make a case for interim coach Bruce Arians, who is 4-1 in his tenure after Pagano left with the Luekemia diagnosis. An interim would be unprecedented. Gary Kubiak has a case as well, but that team is more about defense right now. I'll give it to Lovie Smith. The Bears were 8-8 last season, so this is a step up, and his defense is playing incredible right now.
Executive of the Year: John Elway, Denver
He took a chance on Peyton Manning. He brought in Tamme and Dreessen to help him. After JD Walton went down, he moved quickly and brought in Dan Koppen. He brought in Tracy Porter, who's played decent before he was injured, and Mike Adams, who's played really well. This is a hard one to really guage, but Elway got the biggest fish.
