Miami Dolphins (3-6) @ Buffalo Bills (3-6) (BUF -2.5)
The Dolphins are desolate. They are bad, and after losing that crucial game to Indianapolis, are only getting worse, and bad teams don't win on the road on Thursday Night. Let's not think too much about this.
Dolphins 17 Bills 23 (BUF -2.5) (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) @ Washington Redskins (3-6) (WAS -3.5)
Would the line have been any different if Michael Vick was the starter? I say, probably not, but I would have had a lot more confidence in backing the Eagles. I didn't like what I saw from Nick Foles last week. He's a rookie. He'll get better, but this is a tough position for him, to come into a team in freefall and get them back on the right track. The Redskins have lost three in a row so they aren't in a great position as well. I feel like the Redskins will come to play after their bye against an Eagles team that essentially lost its season last week.
Eagles 17 Redskins 21 (WAS -3.5)
Green Bay Packers (6-3) @ Detroit Lions (4-5) (GB -3)
Cards on the table, I am picking a TON of underdogs this week to cover or win, and it starts here. The Lions built themselves to beat the Aaron Rodgers Packers, and while it didn't work last year, it did in the larger sense. The Packers held Rodgers to 9/17 in the 1st Half last year (he did go 13/16 in the 2nd) and trailed just 7-0, before a spate of turnovers, and Ndamukong Suh's ejection, ended the game. The year before, Rodgers left the game with a concussion, but he was doing little before then, going 7/11 for 46 yards with a pick. Despite gaudy numbers, the Packers offense has been nothing like it was last year, and I can see the Lions coming out to play here in a huge game for them. There is a lot much more to win for the Lions here, and I think they pull it off.
Packers 24 Lions 27 (DET +3)
Arizona Cardinals (4-5) @ Atlanta Falcons (8-1) (ATL -9.5)
I have no idea why I keep picking the Cardinals to cover. I have an illness. Is there a support group for this? Anyway, looking farther than this game, I think the Falcons are now somehow underrated. They aren't 8-1 good, but they are 6-3 or 7-2 good, but people just assume this team is about average. They aren't. That said, they aren't good at rushing the passer, and if the Cardinals can keep their QB upright, they can stay in the game.
Cardinals 20 Falcons 26 (ARZ +9.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-4) @ Carolina Panthers (2-7) (TB -1)
A symptom of the Cardinals sickness is also liking the Panthers week after week. The Buccaneers do not have a good defense at all, and the Panthers should be able to move the ball well. The Panthers defense, on the other hand, has been playing better. Even against Denver, their defense hung tough. Cam Newton should have time to find guys open deep, which is what they've been doing recently. This, a lazy 1 PM game the week before a massive game in Tampa against the Falcons, is the type of game the Bucs are ripe to drop.
Buccaneers 24 Panthers 27 (CAR +1) (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Cleveland Browns (2-7) @ Dallas Cowboys (4-5) (DAL -8)
This line just seems high. Let's remember before a fluky spate of return TDs (Punt Return, INT Return, Fumble Recovery) the Cowboys were tied with the Eagles 17-17. The Browns have rarely been blown out in any game. They've lost three games by this number, two by 10 (Bills, Ravens) and by 14 to the Giants. They have played better of late, and their offense should be able to do something against that Dallas defense. Rob Ryan would love to stick it to the Browns, but I don't trust those types of motivations altering games. The Cowboys are not a good home team, and I can see them having a lazy performance, overlooking this game for their upcoming Thanksgiving tilt against the Redskins (btw, three good Thanksgiving games this year, a rarity).
Browns 24 Cowboys 27 (CLE +8)
New York Jets (3-6) @ St. Louis Rams (3-5-1) (STL -3)
The Jets are a bad team, but they way they have been portrayed is that they are the worst thing to ever be put on a football field. The Rams are a mediocre team that just took the 49ers to OT. I can see an emotional drop from the Rams here, with two Divisional Games upcoming. This is a game where the Jets can do well. They can handle mediocre offenses with their offense, and they should give Sam Bradford troubles. I can see the Jets, after being pounded over the last week, coming out and having a good game, stealing one, even.
Jets 23 Rams 20 (NYJ +3)
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) @ Houston Texans (8-1) (HOU -15)
There's no point in analyzing these two teams. The Texans are the best team in the NFL. The Jaguars are the worst, or at best the 2nd worst. The issue is can the Texans cover a 15 point spread. The Jaguars have actually been better on the road, but the Texans have been better at home. I can also see the Texans wanting to put up a big number on offense after that slow performance in Chicago last week.In the end, though, this line seems too high. The Texans aren't teh 2007 Patriots.
Jaguars 17 Texans 31 (JAX +15)
Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-8) (CIN -3)
The Chiefs might be emotionally spent after losing that game to Pittsburgh, while the Bengals, facing a relatively easy schedule are now back in play. If the Bengals have any hope of making it back to the playoffs, they have to win this game. The Chiefs defense has been average against #1 receivers, so I can see AJ Green having another nice game. The Bengals have actually traveled decently this year, and this is the easiest road game that they will have. Add in the low line (would probably buy half-a-point, though), and it makes to a seemingly easy pick.
Bengals 27 Chiefs 20 (CIN -3)
Oakland Raiders (3-6) @ New Orleans Saints (4-5) (NO -4.5)
The Raiders are undervalued having been just blowed out in Baltimore (not exactly an easy place to play), and are now up against a Saints team that has a historically bad defense overall (giving up an astounding 469.3 yards per game), and is awful against #1 receivers and RBs, and the Raiders throw to their RBs, especially Fullback Marcel Reese, all the time. I like this matchup for Oakland. I'm not sure how they play defense, but every year, once or twice, the Raiders defense will show up and win a game they really shouldn't, and that high line makes me think that this is the week.
Raiders 31 Saints 27 (OAK +4.5)
San Diego Chargers (4-5) @ Denver Broncos (6-3) (DEN -7.5)
The Chargers aren't out of the playoff race, but the 2012 Season could end up being defined by the Chargers blowing a 24-0 halftime lead in Week 6 to the Broncos. The Broncos haven't lost (and barely trailed) since. The Chargers are 1-2 since, with losses in Cleveland and Tampa Bay. The Chargers haven't traveled well all season, and Denver is playing really well right now. I can see them wanting to put a lock in this division right now, end any chance of the AFC West being up for grabs in December, and just putting the nail in the Chargers coffin, something that Peyton, given his history against the Chargers, would really want to do.
Chargers 17 Broncos 31 (DEN -7.5)
Indianapolis Colts (6-3) @ New England Patriots (6-3) (NE -9.5)
I really hope this isn't a playoff preview. I don't want to see the Colts play either New England or Denver in the playoffs, as I would hate competing emotions. Anyway, as for this game, this is a 'barometer game' for the Colts. If they stay competitive, that says a lot about this team, least of all that if they make the playoffs (which is a good chance, right now), they won't have a haunting performance on January 5th or 6th. Andrew Luck and the Colts offense should be able to move the ball on New England against that awful defense, but New England will still move it more. The Colts do a good job of limiting posessions, so while I doubt they will really stop the Patriots, but I think they can keep it relatively low scoring. This is a high line but I can see them keeping up well enough. I wish the line was back above 10, because the Pats are notoriously bad at covering double digit lines, but alas, Vegas is torturing me.
Colts 24 Patriots 35 (NE -9.5)
Baltimore Ravens (7-2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) (BAL -3.5)
There are precedents for Armageddons without Roethlisberger, as the Ravens beat the Steelers by 3 in 2009 and 2010 without Ben Roethlisberger. The 2010 win was in Pittsburgh as well. The Ravens have a great chance to put some distance between themselves and the Steelers here. The one difference between the Steelers without Ben now and then is their defense isn't as good as they were in 2009 and 2010 to hold the Ravens down, and Leftwich isn't as good right now as either Dennis Dixon (2009) or Charlie Batch (2010). The Steelers looked lost without Ben last week. I think the Ravens, having being criticized for Weeks, come out strong and put some distance between themselves and the Steelers before their return leg in two weeks at M&T.
Ravens 23 Steelers 16 (BAL -3.5)
Chicago Bears (7-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (6-2-1) (SF -6)
This is the line with Alex Smith playing and Jason Campbell coming in place of Cutler. This is a big loss for the Bears, but they are the one team who I think can be very competitive without Cutler because of how well that defense is playing. The 49ers should be able to pull this out, but even without Cutler, that line seems high. This is a big game for the Bears though, because if the Packers do beat the Lions, the Bears are in risk of falling into 2nd place with a loss here after being 7-1 two weeks ago. Either way, I see the 49ers winning a close game, but the Bears covering a high 6-point spread.
Bears 17 49ers 20 (CHI +6)
Enjoy the Games!!!
The Dolphins are desolate. They are bad, and after losing that crucial game to Indianapolis, are only getting worse, and bad teams don't win on the road on Thursday Night. Let's not think too much about this.
Dolphins 17 Bills 23 (BUF -2.5) (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) @ Washington Redskins (3-6) (WAS -3.5)
Would the line have been any different if Michael Vick was the starter? I say, probably not, but I would have had a lot more confidence in backing the Eagles. I didn't like what I saw from Nick Foles last week. He's a rookie. He'll get better, but this is a tough position for him, to come into a team in freefall and get them back on the right track. The Redskins have lost three in a row so they aren't in a great position as well. I feel like the Redskins will come to play after their bye against an Eagles team that essentially lost its season last week.
Eagles 17 Redskins 21 (WAS -3.5)
Green Bay Packers (6-3) @ Detroit Lions (4-5) (GB -3)
Cards on the table, I am picking a TON of underdogs this week to cover or win, and it starts here. The Lions built themselves to beat the Aaron Rodgers Packers, and while it didn't work last year, it did in the larger sense. The Packers held Rodgers to 9/17 in the 1st Half last year (he did go 13/16 in the 2nd) and trailed just 7-0, before a spate of turnovers, and Ndamukong Suh's ejection, ended the game. The year before, Rodgers left the game with a concussion, but he was doing little before then, going 7/11 for 46 yards with a pick. Despite gaudy numbers, the Packers offense has been nothing like it was last year, and I can see the Lions coming out to play here in a huge game for them. There is a lot much more to win for the Lions here, and I think they pull it off.
Packers 24 Lions 27 (DET +3)
Arizona Cardinals (4-5) @ Atlanta Falcons (8-1) (ATL -9.5)
I have no idea why I keep picking the Cardinals to cover. I have an illness. Is there a support group for this? Anyway, looking farther than this game, I think the Falcons are now somehow underrated. They aren't 8-1 good, but they are 6-3 or 7-2 good, but people just assume this team is about average. They aren't. That said, they aren't good at rushing the passer, and if the Cardinals can keep their QB upright, they can stay in the game.
Cardinals 20 Falcons 26 (ARZ +9.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-4) @ Carolina Panthers (2-7) (TB -1)
A symptom of the Cardinals sickness is also liking the Panthers week after week. The Buccaneers do not have a good defense at all, and the Panthers should be able to move the ball well. The Panthers defense, on the other hand, has been playing better. Even against Denver, their defense hung tough. Cam Newton should have time to find guys open deep, which is what they've been doing recently. This, a lazy 1 PM game the week before a massive game in Tampa against the Falcons, is the type of game the Bucs are ripe to drop.
Buccaneers 24 Panthers 27 (CAR +1) (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Cleveland Browns (2-7) @ Dallas Cowboys (4-5) (DAL -8)
This line just seems high. Let's remember before a fluky spate of return TDs (Punt Return, INT Return, Fumble Recovery) the Cowboys were tied with the Eagles 17-17. The Browns have rarely been blown out in any game. They've lost three games by this number, two by 10 (Bills, Ravens) and by 14 to the Giants. They have played better of late, and their offense should be able to do something against that Dallas defense. Rob Ryan would love to stick it to the Browns, but I don't trust those types of motivations altering games. The Cowboys are not a good home team, and I can see them having a lazy performance, overlooking this game for their upcoming Thanksgiving tilt against the Redskins (btw, three good Thanksgiving games this year, a rarity).
Browns 24 Cowboys 27 (CLE +8)
New York Jets (3-6) @ St. Louis Rams (3-5-1) (STL -3)
The Jets are a bad team, but they way they have been portrayed is that they are the worst thing to ever be put on a football field. The Rams are a mediocre team that just took the 49ers to OT. I can see an emotional drop from the Rams here, with two Divisional Games upcoming. This is a game where the Jets can do well. They can handle mediocre offenses with their offense, and they should give Sam Bradford troubles. I can see the Jets, after being pounded over the last week, coming out and having a good game, stealing one, even.
Jets 23 Rams 20 (NYJ +3)
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) @ Houston Texans (8-1) (HOU -15)
There's no point in analyzing these two teams. The Texans are the best team in the NFL. The Jaguars are the worst, or at best the 2nd worst. The issue is can the Texans cover a 15 point spread. The Jaguars have actually been better on the road, but the Texans have been better at home. I can also see the Texans wanting to put up a big number on offense after that slow performance in Chicago last week.In the end, though, this line seems too high. The Texans aren't teh 2007 Patriots.
Jaguars 17 Texans 31 (JAX +15)
Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-8) (CIN -3)
The Chiefs might be emotionally spent after losing that game to Pittsburgh, while the Bengals, facing a relatively easy schedule are now back in play. If the Bengals have any hope of making it back to the playoffs, they have to win this game. The Chiefs defense has been average against #1 receivers, so I can see AJ Green having another nice game. The Bengals have actually traveled decently this year, and this is the easiest road game that they will have. Add in the low line (would probably buy half-a-point, though), and it makes to a seemingly easy pick.
Bengals 27 Chiefs 20 (CIN -3)
Oakland Raiders (3-6) @ New Orleans Saints (4-5) (NO -4.5)
The Raiders are undervalued having been just blowed out in Baltimore (not exactly an easy place to play), and are now up against a Saints team that has a historically bad defense overall (giving up an astounding 469.3 yards per game), and is awful against #1 receivers and RBs, and the Raiders throw to their RBs, especially Fullback Marcel Reese, all the time. I like this matchup for Oakland. I'm not sure how they play defense, but every year, once or twice, the Raiders defense will show up and win a game they really shouldn't, and that high line makes me think that this is the week.
Raiders 31 Saints 27 (OAK +4.5)
San Diego Chargers (4-5) @ Denver Broncos (6-3) (DEN -7.5)
The Chargers aren't out of the playoff race, but the 2012 Season could end up being defined by the Chargers blowing a 24-0 halftime lead in Week 6 to the Broncos. The Broncos haven't lost (and barely trailed) since. The Chargers are 1-2 since, with losses in Cleveland and Tampa Bay. The Chargers haven't traveled well all season, and Denver is playing really well right now. I can see them wanting to put a lock in this division right now, end any chance of the AFC West being up for grabs in December, and just putting the nail in the Chargers coffin, something that Peyton, given his history against the Chargers, would really want to do.
Chargers 17 Broncos 31 (DEN -7.5)
Indianapolis Colts (6-3) @ New England Patriots (6-3) (NE -9.5)
I really hope this isn't a playoff preview. I don't want to see the Colts play either New England or Denver in the playoffs, as I would hate competing emotions. Anyway, as for this game, this is a 'barometer game' for the Colts. If they stay competitive, that says a lot about this team, least of all that if they make the playoffs (which is a good chance, right now), they won't have a haunting performance on January 5th or 6th. Andrew Luck and the Colts offense should be able to move the ball on New England against that awful defense, but New England will still move it more. The Colts do a good job of limiting posessions, so while I doubt they will really stop the Patriots, but I think they can keep it relatively low scoring. This is a high line but I can see them keeping up well enough. I wish the line was back above 10, because the Pats are notoriously bad at covering double digit lines, but alas, Vegas is torturing me.
Colts 24 Patriots 35 (NE -9.5)
Baltimore Ravens (7-2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) (BAL -3.5)
There are precedents for Armageddons without Roethlisberger, as the Ravens beat the Steelers by 3 in 2009 and 2010 without Ben Roethlisberger. The 2010 win was in Pittsburgh as well. The Ravens have a great chance to put some distance between themselves and the Steelers here. The one difference between the Steelers without Ben now and then is their defense isn't as good as they were in 2009 and 2010 to hold the Ravens down, and Leftwich isn't as good right now as either Dennis Dixon (2009) or Charlie Batch (2010). The Steelers looked lost without Ben last week. I think the Ravens, having being criticized for Weeks, come out strong and put some distance between themselves and the Steelers before their return leg in two weeks at M&T.
Ravens 23 Steelers 16 (BAL -3.5)
Chicago Bears (7-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (6-2-1) (SF -6)
This is the line with Alex Smith playing and Jason Campbell coming in place of Cutler. This is a big loss for the Bears, but they are the one team who I think can be very competitive without Cutler because of how well that defense is playing. The 49ers should be able to pull this out, but even without Cutler, that line seems high. This is a big game for the Bears though, because if the Packers do beat the Lions, the Bears are in risk of falling into 2nd place with a loss here after being 7-1 two weeks ago. Either way, I see the 49ers winning a close game, but the Bears covering a high 6-point spread.
Bears 17 49ers 20 (CHI +6)
Enjoy the Games!!!
