Looking Back at Last Week's Picks
Colts (-3) over Jaguars (CORRECT = 1-0)
Bills (+11) over Patriots (CORRECT = 2-0)
Giants (-4) over Bengals (WRONG = 2-1)
Chargers (+3) over Buccaneers (WRONG = 2-2) (UPSET)
Broncos (-4) over Panthers (CORRECT = 3-2)
Titans (+5.5) over Dolphins (CORRECT = 4-2)
Ravens (-8) over Raiders (CORRECT = 5-2)
Falcons (-2.5) over Saints (WRONG = 5-3)
Lions (-2) over Vikings (WRONG = 5-4)
Seahawks (-6) over Jets (CORRECT = 6-4) (LOCK)
49ers (-11) over Rams (WRONG = 6-5)
Eagles (+1.5) over Cowboys (WRONG = 6-6)
Bears (-1) over Texans (WRONG = 6-7)
Steelers (-12) over Chiefs (WRONG = 6-8)
Week 10: 6-8 (LOCK: 1-0; UPSET: 0-1)
Year-to-Date: 79-64-3 (LOCK: 8-2; UPSET: 8-2)
Best Picks: Nothing. Just a bad week. The wheels have fallen off.
Power Rankings
32.) Kansas City Chiefs (1-8 = 146-256)
I'll admit, I write most of this on Monday, and I don't feel like dropping them ahead of the Jaguars. That was a nice performance, but they couldn't beat Byron Leftwich. That's not a recipe for success. Matt Cassel once again showed exactly why I never trusted this team. Cassel is garbage. The rest of that team isn't. Cassel is so bad that they are the worst team in the NFL.
31.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8 = 127-246)
Blaine Gabbert is so cared to throw picks he is incapable of throwing easy routes. That isn't a problem that is going to suddenly disappear. The bigger issue is what has happened to that defense. They were a top-half defense in 2011, and then added Aaron Ross and Dawan Landry, and have gotten substantially worse.
30.) New York Jets (3-6 = 175-228)
Although that was a predictable beatdown, I would have thought the Jets would do a little better (not sure why I would have thought that, though). Mark Sanchez looks so lost, and it speaks volumes that despite his average to awful play, Rex hasn't gone to Tebow. What that really shows is Tebow was definitely not Rex's idea, or not even one he wanted to sign off on.
29.) Carolina Panthers (2-7 = 163-216)
The Panthers again played slow. Cam Newton got little protection, but even when he did, he held the ball way too long and let that Broncos rush get to him a little too much. His throw when being hit that resulted in teh pick was awful. I guess the Panthers defense was OK, but it never really stopped the Broncos during the game.
28.) Oakland Raiders (3-6 = 191-284)
That was ugly, obviously. I have no idea how they can be so bad despite not turning it over all that much, and despite Carson Palmer having good games mostly every week. If they could have just had a slightly better defense, this team could have been in the Wild-Card mix. Instead, everyone is going to pile on the Palmer trade
27.) Tennessee Titans (4-6 = 219-311)
Where did that come from? That will almost certainly be the strangest game all season long, with the Titans, who have lost so many embarrassing games, fresh off giving up 51 points, beating the Dolphins, whom everyone considers a respectable team, by 34 in Miami. I have no words. I guess Jake Locker is better than I thought.
26.) St. Louis Rams (3-5-1 = 161-210)
Really? A tie? Really??
25.) Cleveland Browns (2-7 = 169-211)
Hopefully the Browns used their bye week well. There are winnable games coming up, and a lot of coaches and even players are really playing for their job with new management coming in in the form of Joe Banner and "insert head coach here". I still say the Browns have a good core, but I doubt Haslam and Co. let them play out other than Richardson.
24.) Buffalo Bills (3-6 = 211-285)
That is a tough loss to comeback from. For the second time this season against the Pats, Fred Jackson fumbled at the 1-yard line (why does it seem like the Pats always get three or four of those a year). Ryan Fitzpatrick nearly threw a perfect pass to win the game, and then followed that up with an abhorrent interception to end it. Their defense played better, and the refs screwed them (does the word 'uncatchable' mean anything?). Anyway, now they go fall back to earth like we all know they will.
23.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-6 = 156-221)
I feel bad for them because I think if Vick stays in, they win the game. Let's remember that the defense let up just 17 points, but the rest of the team failed them. So in other words, the Eagles from the Juan Castillo era of 2012 are back!
22.) Washington Redskins (3-6 = 226-248)
Hopefully Mike Shanahan used the bye week to come to the conclusion that just because you have RGIII and this weird offense, doesn't mean the team will always be able to get 4th Downs. I never thought I would say this, but shrink your balls, Shanny.
21.) Arizona Cardinals (4-5 = 144-173)
The bye has come and gone, and the Cardinals can regroup. They are still in the race, with a win over Seattle, but they need to start winning soon. I have no idea who their QB is going to be, and I doubt it matters. All the Cards need to do is block, but I have little faith they can just learn that overnight.
20.) Cincinnati Bengals (4-5 = 220-231)
Nice win, and a nice, calm performance by Dalton who took everything underneath, never forced the ball, and looked like the QB he needs to be. AJ Green didn't really call out the Giants, but did say "they have holes in the defense" and AJ Green seemed to be quite knowledgeable, finding them often. Their pass rush returned in full, and overall it was just a monster performance to end a slow death losing streak.
19.) Detroit Lions (4-5 = 216-222)
I really thought that their climb back to .500 would inspire them to do greater things, but that was a lifeless performance. The Lions made Christian Ponder look like Rich Gannon again, and didn't even stop Peterson, so they can't say that they were focusing on him and not the pass. Good to see Calvin finally catch a TD from Stafford, but that just overscores what a disappoint they have been in fantasy, that most people probably assume they are worse than they are.
18.) Miami Dolphins (4-5 = 173-186)
Again, what was that? It is hard to tell what teams will fall after an emotional loss, but I guessed right with Miami (guessed wrong with Cincinnati). The Dolphins were flat, and just plain awful, in every phase. Ryan Tannehill had his worst game of the year against an awful defense, and the defense was incapable of doing anything.
17.) San Diego Chargers (4-5 = 209-191)
This might be the worst Norv season yet. They have an extremely winnable Wild Card spot and they are letting it slip away. The worst part is unlike 2010, when it was due to a historically shitty Special Teams, this is just because the teams isn't that good anymore. Phil Riveres is pressing because his average receivers don't get open. The rest of the team has bled talent for years and is paying the price.
16.) Dallas Cowboys (4-5 = 188-204)
Good win, but that offense still is far less than the sum of their parts. The defense stepped up though, and put that awful Maclin TD defense behind them to dominate Foles and the Eagles offense the rest of the game, saving their season. The Cowboys have a shot (though the h2h loss to Seattle hurts) and it starts with these next three home games against Cleveland, Washington and Philadelphia.
15.) Minnesota Vikings (6-4 = 238-221)
Christian Ponder is back to emulating Rich Gannon (instead of Rick Mirer) and the Vikings win again. Just a huge game for Minnesota, who keeps a half-game in front of Seattle. The only negative for Minnesota is the games they have left, with both meetings with Chicago and Green Bay still to come. If they can win just one out of those four, they have a shot.
14.) New Orleans Saints (4-5 = 249-256)
There's a precedent to what the Saints are doing. Coming off their miracle 10-6 2006 season, they started 2007 0-4. After nine games, they were 4-5. The ended 7-9 and far out of a playoff spot, choking it away with losses in Weeks 16-17 to two teams starting backups (the Week 17 game was meaningless). I doubt this year ends as unceremoniously, but the Saints are in bad shape, with three conference losses, and tough games ahead. That said, good on the defense for making a stand when I'm sure no one had any confidence in them.
13.) Indianapolis Colts (6-3 = 186-201)
They're for real in that they are a .500 type team. Their point differential is no longer indicative of a 6-10 team. If they just play .500 ball from here on out, they'll make the playoffs, being a full two games ahead of any other AFC team (and with a win over the Dolphins). That said, if they want to make a statement, all they really have to do is stay competitive with New England. That's a good enough message that they won't be an easy out come January 5th or 6th.
12.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-4 = 260-209)
I'm still wrong about Tampa, but they easily could have lost that game. I still don't trust their defense (they won't have QBs just gift-wrap them interceptions like that), but that offense is for real. I never envisioned Josh Freeman being a downfield thrower like that, but he is having a season that is quite close to the years Philip Rivers used to put, with a league-leading YPA.
11.) New York Giants (6-4 = 267-216)
If you don't want to hear the questions, don't give them the chance. The Giants have allowed themselves to be questioned about their second half swoon once again, and for good reason. Apart from 2008 (where they fall apart a month later), November has been the real culprit, and it has been again. They have two massive games coming up after their bye, with a trip to Washington following their game at home against Green Bay. If they win one, they'll probably hold onto the division, but they better win one of them.
10.) Seattle Seahawks (6-4 = 198-161)
That was a statement. Russell Wilson continues to play well at home (sadly for them, there is little chance they have a home playoff game), but that team as a whole had a home game against a mediocre team, and did to the Jets what playoff-caliber teams should, destroy them. I love that pitchout WR-Pass by Tate. Random Question, why are so many of these types of plays called for Lefties?
9.) New England Patriots (6-3 = 299-201)
They have played exactly one good game at home so far, which was their 31-21 win over Denver (where they got extreme fumble luck). Other than that, they've lost to Arizona and dramatically held off the Jets and Bills. This team just isn't that great. Their TEs are banged up, and while they are still great, they can't get deep as much. No one still can get deep consistently, and good defenses will be able to limit them. The question is can the defense show up against a good offense when they need to.
8.) Green Bay Packers (6-3 = 239-187)
They must have loved what they saw last night, as that division is definitely still in play (will probably come down to a MASSIVE Week 16 game in Chicago), but they still need to figure out a way to get their main receivers deep more often (instead of scheming stuff to get the likes of Tom Crabtree open deep). Their defense has improved so much from last season though, and I really have no idea why, but if it keeps working, who cares. Two big road games coming up though.
7.) Baltimore Ravens (7-2 = 254-196)
I still say they have a much better chance of holding off the Steelers to win the North than most would give them. They did lose Webb and Ray Lewis, but that doesn't make a team that was 5-1 with them into suddenly a .500 type team. They still have loads of talent, and if that offense can consistently play, then they will be fine. The key for them will be to win two of these three games: @ San Diego, vs Denver and vs New York, assuming they split with Pittsburgh. Can they? I think they can.
6.) San Francisco 49ers (6-2-1 = 213-127)
Tough loss, and the loss of Smith could be more important. Hopefully he will be fine. The real story is that defense being up-and-down and not being able to consistently get pressure on the QB. They still have a comfortable lead in the division, but hard games remain (vs CHI, @ NO, @ SEA) that makes their situation less comfortable than it would have been had David Akers just hit a 43 yard field goal.
5.) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3 = 207-177)
I wanted to drop them further because I don't know if Roethlisberger will play or not, but this is where I would rank them if Ben was healthy in full. The defense continues to play really well despite not getting a ton of pressure on the QB, or intercepting many passes. It is amazing how that defense just went into a different mode when they had to cover for Byron Leftwich. That injury could not have come at a worse time, though, with two of their next three against the Ravens.
4.) Atlanta Falcons (8-1 = 247-174)
They came two yards away from keeping their dream for 16-0 alive. In the end, it was a little too much, but I like the way their offense played. This team is still better, in my mind, than the 2010 Falcons that went 13-3 and then were obliterated by the Packers in the Divisional Round. Their offense is still deadly, and Tony Gonzalez is becoming the Mariano Rivera of TEs, where I can never imagine him being anything other than very good.
3.) Denver Broncos (6-3 = 271-189)
That could have been a tricky game. They even trailed 7-0 early, on the road against a team that had been playing better of late. Of course, they proceeded to score the next 29 points. Some quick stats on Denver. They are 2nd in the league with 6.1 yards per play, and tied for 1st in yards per play allowed with 4.8. They lead the NFL in sacks, and in QB Rating. If they had average fumble recovery luck, they would probably be 7-2 right now. Either way, this team still has some challenges, but, assuming Week 17 is meaningful, 13-3 is a possibility.
2.) Chicago Bears (7-2 = 242-133)
I can't drop them too far. Their fumble luck was bad (three fumbles, all recovered by Houston), but their defense was still dominant, making Matt Schaub look lost and that offense stagnant. If Cutler stays in, that could have been a fun game. The defense, much like they did in the 2010 NFC Title Game, stepped up after Cutler went down, but Campbell was nowhere near Caleb Hanie (at least Hanie in that game).
1.) Houston Texans (8-1 = 250-143)
That was a huge win. First, it keeps their 1.5 game lead on the AFC (h2h over the 7-2 Ravens, everyone else 6-3 or worse), with just a couple tough games left (@ DET, @ NE). The Texans went into Chicago, played as good defensively against the best defense in the NFL, in the rain. That was not a game the 2007-2009 Texans come close to winning, but the 2012 Texans are a different animal. With Schaub starting, they are now 12-1 in their last 13 games (dating back to 2011). They were the best team in the AFC when Schaub went down last year, and they are clearly the best team in the AFC right now.
Ranking Next Week's Games
14.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) @ Houston Texans (8-1) (1:00 - CBS)
This could get ugly. My guess is Schaub will want to take the poor taste out of his mouth from the awful passing performance against Chicago, and what better way to do that against one of the worst teams in the NFL.
13.) New York Jets (3-6) @ St. Louis Rams (3-5-1) (1:00 - CBS)
12.) Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-8) (1:00 - CBS)
11.) Miami Dolphins (4-5) @ Buffalo Bills (3-6) (TNF - NFLN)
I call it Mediocrity Sunday. Only the Bengals have any real shot at the playoffs at this point (Miami would, but they lost to the Colts), and they do get the easiest game here. The others are teams already playing out the string of their season. It is amazing how many teams with more than two wins have nothing to play for in reality already.
10.) Arizona Cardinals (4-5) @ Atlanta Falcons (8-1) (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Cleveland Browns (2-7) @ Dallas Cowboys (4-5) (1:00 - CBS)
8.) New Orleans Saints (4-5) @ Oakland Raiders (3-6) (4:05 - FOX)
I call it Likely Blowout Sunday. The Falcons need to step up and blast a team at home for once, especially with a trip to Tampa looming the following week. They'll still win that division, but the #1 seed is no sure bet right now. The Cowboys, if they want any shot at making a run, can't pussy-dick around and drop games to Cleveland. The Saints defense will get another test in Oakland, but their offense should asplode on the Raiders.
7.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) @ Washington Redskins (3-6) (1:00 - FOX)
6.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-4) @ Carolina Panthers (2-7) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it (I like this gimmick, by the way) Sad Divisional Sunday. Only the Bucs have a shot, and they get a possible lifeless Carolina team (by the way, Cam Newton's first two years are similar to Josh Freeman's 2010-11 seasons). The Eagles probably without Mike Vick will get a rookie-bowl with RGIII, in his debut in this rivalry, which is by far the least interesting of all the NFC East combinations.
5.) Green Bay Packers (6-3) @ Detroit Lions (4-5) (1:00 - FOX)
4.) San Diego Chargers (4-5) @ Denver Broncos (6-3) (4:25 - CBS)
I call it Fun Divisional Sunday. The Packers and Broncos are two of the hottest teams and they employ the best two QBs in the NFL. The other two would love, love, love to end the Packers and Broncos four-game win streaks. The Chargers were embarrassed in that MNF game, and the Lions love beating down Rodgers. Both could potentially be interesting games.
3.) Indianapolis Colts (6-3) @ New England Patriots (6-3) (4:25 - CBS)
I call it Bizarro Sunday. I love that even after the Manning rivalry, this will be an important game. There is a chance it isn't close, because the Colts are closer to a .500 team, but the Pats have been very vulnerable at home this season (barely beating New York and Buffalo). Andrew Luck should have fun against a defense that was hopeless against Mark Sanchez and Ryan Fitzpatrick.
2.) Chicago Bears (7-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (6-2-1) (MNF - ESPN)
If both teams are missing their starting QBs, this game probably will be about as competitive (but not as pretty) as if both Cutler and Smith play. If only one is missing, then the game becomes a mismatch. This game has a chance to be a slightly more offense-present version of teh Texans @ Bears game. Should also be a great crowd at Candlestick for a game that is really important in terms of 1st Round Bye implications (and possible division implications with Seattle, and especially Green Bay, breathing down their neck).
1.) Baltimore Ravens (7-2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) (SNF - NBC)
Here we go again, with or without Ben Roethlisberger. I have a feeling he will play. How good will he be is another matter. The Roethlisberger injury can factor huge into the AFC North race, with the return leg in two weeks at M&T Bank. Should be a fun game like always, and I have to think both defenses show up.
Postseason Projections
AFC
1.) Houston Texans 14-2
2.) Denver Broncos 13-3
3.) Baltimore Ravens 12-4
4.) New England Patriots 11-5
5.) Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5*
6.) Indianapolis Colts 10-6
* - If it is a long term injury with Ben, then drop them out, put the Colts at the #5, and the Chargers at the #6.
NFC
1.) Atlanta Falcons 13-3
2.) Chicago Bears 12-4
3.) San Francisco 49ers 11-4-1
4.) New York Giants 10-6
5.) Green Bay Packers 11-5
6.) Seattle Seahawks 9-7
I'm assuming Smith and Cutler miss no more than one game, and if they both do, it is against each other, so it doesn't really change their matchup.
Colts (-3) over Jaguars (CORRECT = 1-0)
Bills (+11) over Patriots (CORRECT = 2-0)
Giants (-4) over Bengals (WRONG = 2-1)
Chargers (+3) over Buccaneers (WRONG = 2-2) (UPSET)
Broncos (-4) over Panthers (CORRECT = 3-2)
Titans (+5.5) over Dolphins (CORRECT = 4-2)
Ravens (-8) over Raiders (CORRECT = 5-2)
Falcons (-2.5) over Saints (WRONG = 5-3)
Lions (-2) over Vikings (WRONG = 5-4)
Seahawks (-6) over Jets (CORRECT = 6-4) (LOCK)
49ers (-11) over Rams (WRONG = 6-5)
Eagles (+1.5) over Cowboys (WRONG = 6-6)
Bears (-1) over Texans (WRONG = 6-7)
Steelers (-12) over Chiefs (WRONG = 6-8)
Week 10: 6-8 (LOCK: 1-0; UPSET: 0-1)
Year-to-Date: 79-64-3 (LOCK: 8-2; UPSET: 8-2)
Best Picks: Nothing. Just a bad week. The wheels have fallen off.
Power Rankings
32.) Kansas City Chiefs (1-8 = 146-256)
I'll admit, I write most of this on Monday, and I don't feel like dropping them ahead of the Jaguars. That was a nice performance, but they couldn't beat Byron Leftwich. That's not a recipe for success. Matt Cassel once again showed exactly why I never trusted this team. Cassel is garbage. The rest of that team isn't. Cassel is so bad that they are the worst team in the NFL.
31.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8 = 127-246)
Blaine Gabbert is so cared to throw picks he is incapable of throwing easy routes. That isn't a problem that is going to suddenly disappear. The bigger issue is what has happened to that defense. They were a top-half defense in 2011, and then added Aaron Ross and Dawan Landry, and have gotten substantially worse.
30.) New York Jets (3-6 = 175-228)
Although that was a predictable beatdown, I would have thought the Jets would do a little better (not sure why I would have thought that, though). Mark Sanchez looks so lost, and it speaks volumes that despite his average to awful play, Rex hasn't gone to Tebow. What that really shows is Tebow was definitely not Rex's idea, or not even one he wanted to sign off on.
29.) Carolina Panthers (2-7 = 163-216)
The Panthers again played slow. Cam Newton got little protection, but even when he did, he held the ball way too long and let that Broncos rush get to him a little too much. His throw when being hit that resulted in teh pick was awful. I guess the Panthers defense was OK, but it never really stopped the Broncos during the game.
28.) Oakland Raiders (3-6 = 191-284)
That was ugly, obviously. I have no idea how they can be so bad despite not turning it over all that much, and despite Carson Palmer having good games mostly every week. If they could have just had a slightly better defense, this team could have been in the Wild-Card mix. Instead, everyone is going to pile on the Palmer trade
27.) Tennessee Titans (4-6 = 219-311)
Where did that come from? That will almost certainly be the strangest game all season long, with the Titans, who have lost so many embarrassing games, fresh off giving up 51 points, beating the Dolphins, whom everyone considers a respectable team, by 34 in Miami. I have no words. I guess Jake Locker is better than I thought.
26.) St. Louis Rams (3-5-1 = 161-210)
Really? A tie? Really??
25.) Cleveland Browns (2-7 = 169-211)
Hopefully the Browns used their bye week well. There are winnable games coming up, and a lot of coaches and even players are really playing for their job with new management coming in in the form of Joe Banner and "insert head coach here". I still say the Browns have a good core, but I doubt Haslam and Co. let them play out other than Richardson.
24.) Buffalo Bills (3-6 = 211-285)
That is a tough loss to comeback from. For the second time this season against the Pats, Fred Jackson fumbled at the 1-yard line (why does it seem like the Pats always get three or four of those a year). Ryan Fitzpatrick nearly threw a perfect pass to win the game, and then followed that up with an abhorrent interception to end it. Their defense played better, and the refs screwed them (does the word 'uncatchable' mean anything?). Anyway, now they go fall back to earth like we all know they will.
23.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-6 = 156-221)
I feel bad for them because I think if Vick stays in, they win the game. Let's remember that the defense let up just 17 points, but the rest of the team failed them. So in other words, the Eagles from the Juan Castillo era of 2012 are back!
22.) Washington Redskins (3-6 = 226-248)
Hopefully Mike Shanahan used the bye week to come to the conclusion that just because you have RGIII and this weird offense, doesn't mean the team will always be able to get 4th Downs. I never thought I would say this, but shrink your balls, Shanny.
21.) Arizona Cardinals (4-5 = 144-173)
The bye has come and gone, and the Cardinals can regroup. They are still in the race, with a win over Seattle, but they need to start winning soon. I have no idea who their QB is going to be, and I doubt it matters. All the Cards need to do is block, but I have little faith they can just learn that overnight.
20.) Cincinnati Bengals (4-5 = 220-231)
Nice win, and a nice, calm performance by Dalton who took everything underneath, never forced the ball, and looked like the QB he needs to be. AJ Green didn't really call out the Giants, but did say "they have holes in the defense" and AJ Green seemed to be quite knowledgeable, finding them often. Their pass rush returned in full, and overall it was just a monster performance to end a slow death losing streak.
19.) Detroit Lions (4-5 = 216-222)
I really thought that their climb back to .500 would inspire them to do greater things, but that was a lifeless performance. The Lions made Christian Ponder look like Rich Gannon again, and didn't even stop Peterson, so they can't say that they were focusing on him and not the pass. Good to see Calvin finally catch a TD from Stafford, but that just overscores what a disappoint they have been in fantasy, that most people probably assume they are worse than they are.
18.) Miami Dolphins (4-5 = 173-186)
Again, what was that? It is hard to tell what teams will fall after an emotional loss, but I guessed right with Miami (guessed wrong with Cincinnati). The Dolphins were flat, and just plain awful, in every phase. Ryan Tannehill had his worst game of the year against an awful defense, and the defense was incapable of doing anything.
17.) San Diego Chargers (4-5 = 209-191)
This might be the worst Norv season yet. They have an extremely winnable Wild Card spot and they are letting it slip away. The worst part is unlike 2010, when it was due to a historically shitty Special Teams, this is just because the teams isn't that good anymore. Phil Riveres is pressing because his average receivers don't get open. The rest of the team has bled talent for years and is paying the price.
16.) Dallas Cowboys (4-5 = 188-204)
Good win, but that offense still is far less than the sum of their parts. The defense stepped up though, and put that awful Maclin TD defense behind them to dominate Foles and the Eagles offense the rest of the game, saving their season. The Cowboys have a shot (though the h2h loss to Seattle hurts) and it starts with these next three home games against Cleveland, Washington and Philadelphia.
15.) Minnesota Vikings (6-4 = 238-221)
Christian Ponder is back to emulating Rich Gannon (instead of Rick Mirer) and the Vikings win again. Just a huge game for Minnesota, who keeps a half-game in front of Seattle. The only negative for Minnesota is the games they have left, with both meetings with Chicago and Green Bay still to come. If they can win just one out of those four, they have a shot.
14.) New Orleans Saints (4-5 = 249-256)
There's a precedent to what the Saints are doing. Coming off their miracle 10-6 2006 season, they started 2007 0-4. After nine games, they were 4-5. The ended 7-9 and far out of a playoff spot, choking it away with losses in Weeks 16-17 to two teams starting backups (the Week 17 game was meaningless). I doubt this year ends as unceremoniously, but the Saints are in bad shape, with three conference losses, and tough games ahead. That said, good on the defense for making a stand when I'm sure no one had any confidence in them.
13.) Indianapolis Colts (6-3 = 186-201)
They're for real in that they are a .500 type team. Their point differential is no longer indicative of a 6-10 team. If they just play .500 ball from here on out, they'll make the playoffs, being a full two games ahead of any other AFC team (and with a win over the Dolphins). That said, if they want to make a statement, all they really have to do is stay competitive with New England. That's a good enough message that they won't be an easy out come January 5th or 6th.
12.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-4 = 260-209)
I'm still wrong about Tampa, but they easily could have lost that game. I still don't trust their defense (they won't have QBs just gift-wrap them interceptions like that), but that offense is for real. I never envisioned Josh Freeman being a downfield thrower like that, but he is having a season that is quite close to the years Philip Rivers used to put, with a league-leading YPA.
11.) New York Giants (6-4 = 267-216)
If you don't want to hear the questions, don't give them the chance. The Giants have allowed themselves to be questioned about their second half swoon once again, and for good reason. Apart from 2008 (where they fall apart a month later), November has been the real culprit, and it has been again. They have two massive games coming up after their bye, with a trip to Washington following their game at home against Green Bay. If they win one, they'll probably hold onto the division, but they better win one of them.
10.) Seattle Seahawks (6-4 = 198-161)
That was a statement. Russell Wilson continues to play well at home (sadly for them, there is little chance they have a home playoff game), but that team as a whole had a home game against a mediocre team, and did to the Jets what playoff-caliber teams should, destroy them. I love that pitchout WR-Pass by Tate. Random Question, why are so many of these types of plays called for Lefties?
9.) New England Patriots (6-3 = 299-201)
They have played exactly one good game at home so far, which was their 31-21 win over Denver (where they got extreme fumble luck). Other than that, they've lost to Arizona and dramatically held off the Jets and Bills. This team just isn't that great. Their TEs are banged up, and while they are still great, they can't get deep as much. No one still can get deep consistently, and good defenses will be able to limit them. The question is can the defense show up against a good offense when they need to.
8.) Green Bay Packers (6-3 = 239-187)
They must have loved what they saw last night, as that division is definitely still in play (will probably come down to a MASSIVE Week 16 game in Chicago), but they still need to figure out a way to get their main receivers deep more often (instead of scheming stuff to get the likes of Tom Crabtree open deep). Their defense has improved so much from last season though, and I really have no idea why, but if it keeps working, who cares. Two big road games coming up though.
7.) Baltimore Ravens (7-2 = 254-196)
I still say they have a much better chance of holding off the Steelers to win the North than most would give them. They did lose Webb and Ray Lewis, but that doesn't make a team that was 5-1 with them into suddenly a .500 type team. They still have loads of talent, and if that offense can consistently play, then they will be fine. The key for them will be to win two of these three games: @ San Diego, vs Denver and vs New York, assuming they split with Pittsburgh. Can they? I think they can.
6.) San Francisco 49ers (6-2-1 = 213-127)
Tough loss, and the loss of Smith could be more important. Hopefully he will be fine. The real story is that defense being up-and-down and not being able to consistently get pressure on the QB. They still have a comfortable lead in the division, but hard games remain (vs CHI, @ NO, @ SEA) that makes their situation less comfortable than it would have been had David Akers just hit a 43 yard field goal.
5.) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3 = 207-177)
I wanted to drop them further because I don't know if Roethlisberger will play or not, but this is where I would rank them if Ben was healthy in full. The defense continues to play really well despite not getting a ton of pressure on the QB, or intercepting many passes. It is amazing how that defense just went into a different mode when they had to cover for Byron Leftwich. That injury could not have come at a worse time, though, with two of their next three against the Ravens.
4.) Atlanta Falcons (8-1 = 247-174)
They came two yards away from keeping their dream for 16-0 alive. In the end, it was a little too much, but I like the way their offense played. This team is still better, in my mind, than the 2010 Falcons that went 13-3 and then were obliterated by the Packers in the Divisional Round. Their offense is still deadly, and Tony Gonzalez is becoming the Mariano Rivera of TEs, where I can never imagine him being anything other than very good.
3.) Denver Broncos (6-3 = 271-189)
That could have been a tricky game. They even trailed 7-0 early, on the road against a team that had been playing better of late. Of course, they proceeded to score the next 29 points. Some quick stats on Denver. They are 2nd in the league with 6.1 yards per play, and tied for 1st in yards per play allowed with 4.8. They lead the NFL in sacks, and in QB Rating. If they had average fumble recovery luck, they would probably be 7-2 right now. Either way, this team still has some challenges, but, assuming Week 17 is meaningful, 13-3 is a possibility.
2.) Chicago Bears (7-2 = 242-133)
I can't drop them too far. Their fumble luck was bad (three fumbles, all recovered by Houston), but their defense was still dominant, making Matt Schaub look lost and that offense stagnant. If Cutler stays in, that could have been a fun game. The defense, much like they did in the 2010 NFC Title Game, stepped up after Cutler went down, but Campbell was nowhere near Caleb Hanie (at least Hanie in that game).
1.) Houston Texans (8-1 = 250-143)
That was a huge win. First, it keeps their 1.5 game lead on the AFC (h2h over the 7-2 Ravens, everyone else 6-3 or worse), with just a couple tough games left (@ DET, @ NE). The Texans went into Chicago, played as good defensively against the best defense in the NFL, in the rain. That was not a game the 2007-2009 Texans come close to winning, but the 2012 Texans are a different animal. With Schaub starting, they are now 12-1 in their last 13 games (dating back to 2011). They were the best team in the AFC when Schaub went down last year, and they are clearly the best team in the AFC right now.
Ranking Next Week's Games
14.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) @ Houston Texans (8-1) (1:00 - CBS)
This could get ugly. My guess is Schaub will want to take the poor taste out of his mouth from the awful passing performance against Chicago, and what better way to do that against one of the worst teams in the NFL.
13.) New York Jets (3-6) @ St. Louis Rams (3-5-1) (1:00 - CBS)
12.) Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-8) (1:00 - CBS)
11.) Miami Dolphins (4-5) @ Buffalo Bills (3-6) (TNF - NFLN)
I call it Mediocrity Sunday. Only the Bengals have any real shot at the playoffs at this point (Miami would, but they lost to the Colts), and they do get the easiest game here. The others are teams already playing out the string of their season. It is amazing how many teams with more than two wins have nothing to play for in reality already.
10.) Arizona Cardinals (4-5) @ Atlanta Falcons (8-1) (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Cleveland Browns (2-7) @ Dallas Cowboys (4-5) (1:00 - CBS)
8.) New Orleans Saints (4-5) @ Oakland Raiders (3-6) (4:05 - FOX)
I call it Likely Blowout Sunday. The Falcons need to step up and blast a team at home for once, especially with a trip to Tampa looming the following week. They'll still win that division, but the #1 seed is no sure bet right now. The Cowboys, if they want any shot at making a run, can't pussy-dick around and drop games to Cleveland. The Saints defense will get another test in Oakland, but their offense should asplode on the Raiders.
7.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) @ Washington Redskins (3-6) (1:00 - FOX)
6.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-4) @ Carolina Panthers (2-7) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it (I like this gimmick, by the way) Sad Divisional Sunday. Only the Bucs have a shot, and they get a possible lifeless Carolina team (by the way, Cam Newton's first two years are similar to Josh Freeman's 2010-11 seasons). The Eagles probably without Mike Vick will get a rookie-bowl with RGIII, in his debut in this rivalry, which is by far the least interesting of all the NFC East combinations.
5.) Green Bay Packers (6-3) @ Detroit Lions (4-5) (1:00 - FOX)
4.) San Diego Chargers (4-5) @ Denver Broncos (6-3) (4:25 - CBS)
I call it Fun Divisional Sunday. The Packers and Broncos are two of the hottest teams and they employ the best two QBs in the NFL. The other two would love, love, love to end the Packers and Broncos four-game win streaks. The Chargers were embarrassed in that MNF game, and the Lions love beating down Rodgers. Both could potentially be interesting games.
3.) Indianapolis Colts (6-3) @ New England Patriots (6-3) (4:25 - CBS)
I call it Bizarro Sunday. I love that even after the Manning rivalry, this will be an important game. There is a chance it isn't close, because the Colts are closer to a .500 team, but the Pats have been very vulnerable at home this season (barely beating New York and Buffalo). Andrew Luck should have fun against a defense that was hopeless against Mark Sanchez and Ryan Fitzpatrick.
2.) Chicago Bears (7-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (6-2-1) (MNF - ESPN)
If both teams are missing their starting QBs, this game probably will be about as competitive (but not as pretty) as if both Cutler and Smith play. If only one is missing, then the game becomes a mismatch. This game has a chance to be a slightly more offense-present version of teh Texans @ Bears game. Should also be a great crowd at Candlestick for a game that is really important in terms of 1st Round Bye implications (and possible division implications with Seattle, and especially Green Bay, breathing down their neck).
1.) Baltimore Ravens (7-2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) (SNF - NBC)
Here we go again, with or without Ben Roethlisberger. I have a feeling he will play. How good will he be is another matter. The Roethlisberger injury can factor huge into the AFC North race, with the return leg in two weeks at M&T Bank. Should be a fun game like always, and I have to think both defenses show up.
Postseason Projections
AFC
1.) Houston Texans 14-2
2.) Denver Broncos 13-3
3.) Baltimore Ravens 12-4
4.) New England Patriots 11-5
5.) Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5*
6.) Indianapolis Colts 10-6
* - If it is a long term injury with Ben, then drop them out, put the Colts at the #5, and the Chargers at the #6.
NFC
1.) Atlanta Falcons 13-3
2.) Chicago Bears 12-4
3.) San Francisco 49ers 11-4-1
4.) New York Giants 10-6
5.) Green Bay Packers 11-5
6.) Seattle Seahawks 9-7
I'm assuming Smith and Cutler miss no more than one game, and if they both do, it is against each other, so it doesn't really change their matchup.
