Looking Back at my '10 Underlined Predictions'
1.) Defenses rerun in force, as no QB throws for 5,000 yards or 40 TDs, and at most one team scores 500 points.
Defenses haven't really returned in force, as scoring and yardage is essentially what it was a year ago, but it is more pervasive and less top-heavy this year. As I predicted, only one team is on pace for 500, as the Pats are on pace for 524. No other team is even on pace for 480. Drew Brees is the only QB on pace for 5,000 yards (5,104), while the next set are all at 4,800 pace. Passing numbers generally decrease as the season goes on as well. The TDs predictions is most likely to be wrong, with Peyton on pace for 40, and Brees and Rodgers on pace for 44.
2.) Andrew Luck and RGIII don't make like Dalton and make the playoffs, but another rookie QB does.
The other rookie QB was Russell Wilson. I might get this absolutely right, and I might get only two or or one of the predictions right. RGIII almost certainly won't make the playoffs. As it stands right now, Luck and Wilson will be there. Luck probably has a better shot, especially if they can win against Jacksonville on Thursday. Wilson's Seahawks are in a dog-fight. That won't get settled soon.
3.) The Cowboys become the Eagles, and the Eagles become, well, the McNabb era Eagles.
What this essentially meant was that the Cowboys would implode like the nebulous group of stars they are, and the Eagles would solidify themselves off of a good finish to 2011 to make the playoffs in 2012. Well, one of those two things certainly happened. The Cowboys have imploded, dropping winnable games in a variety of ways. The Eagles, however, are still the Eagles from 2011 as well, turning the ball over way too much, and not playing sound football. They've also made headlines with the unnecessary firing of Juan Castillo.
4.) The Texans get the AFC's top seed as they capitalize on the league's weakest division.
This one I really locked down. The Texans are the best team in the AFC at 7-1, having beaten the only two -loss team, and having a chance to beat both of the two best three-loss teams. That division isn't as easy because the Colts are decent, but the Texans still have been the best team.
5.) Peyton Manning has one of the three best seasons of any QB in the NFL.
Nailed this one as well. Through the first half, Peyton Manning has had the best season of any QB in the NFL. He leads in the NFL in completion percentage, yards per attempt and passer rating if you want to go conventional (he's also third in yards and TDs too). If you want to go advanced, he leads the NFL in DYAR and DVOA per Football Outsiders, and despite being skeptical of the stat, he leads in ESPN's Total QB Rating to boot.
6.) The Steelers, despite having a defense as old as the city of Pittsburgh itself, will have the NFL's best defense, and LaMarr Woodley will be the centerpiece.
Despite the Steelers have the #1 defense in terms of yards allowed, this was wrong. They've been better, but the best defense has absolutely been Chicago, with San Francisco, Seattle and Houston behind them. The Steelers are coming on though. Despite not getting as much pressure as usual, and still not getting many picks, their pass coverage has been surprisingly excellent so far.
7.) The Falcons do what they do, win a division despite being the 2nd or 3rd most captivating team.
I think I got this one quite right as well. The only captivating thing about the Falcons is that they are undefeated. If they lose next week in New Orleans (possible) or in two weeks in Tampa (possible), they could and probably will, still get the #1 seed and go back to being less captivating than Chicago, San Francisco or New York in the NFC.
8.) There's a surprise sleeper Wild Card team in the AFC, and it isn't one of the two logical choices (Bills or Chiefs).
I got this right and wrong. My thinking that the Bills and Chiefs wouldn't make the playoffs despite getting some preseason love was right on the money. My thinking that the sleeper would be either the Jets, Raiders or Chargers will probably be wrong. The Chargers still have a shot. In reality, the real sleeper I guess is Indy, but San Diego can still get that #6 seed (their conference record will probably be better).
9.) Week 17 will be crazy, and it will probably end with a little bit of 2011 dejavu on NBC.
What this is referring to is how many of the Week 17 games seemed interesting, and I thought it would all end with another winner-take-division game in teh NFC East, with the Giants hosting the Eagles. I was completely wrong. Other than the 6 seed in each conference, and maybe some playoff jockeying, the playoff field might be set by then. I have no idea what game will be the SNF game on Week 17, and it could end with a game where a team needs to win to get in against another teams backups (happened in 2007, when the 13-2 Colts rested against the 9-6 Titans, who beat them to get the #6 seed).
10.) Both Manning's play in Title Games, and mirroring the brother's Harbaugh in 2011, both lose, to the Texans and Bears respectively.
Obviously, this will take a while to actually be right or wrong, but both could easily happen. The Giants probably will have to go on the road in Round 2 again to get there, but it is hard to bet against them. Same with the Broncos, who still need the Pats to slip up at some point to get that #2 seed. The Texans and Bears, though, are my top teams in each conference. They also play this week in what should be a great game.
Okay, so numbers 2 (rookie QBs), 3 (Cowbys & Eagles), 6 (Steelers best defense), 8 (Bills and Chiefs don't make it but either Jets, Raiders or Chargers do) and 9 (Week 17 will be crazy ending with Giants vs. Eagles for NFC East) are either wrong or pointless. Instead, I'll keep numbers 1 (defenses return the favor in 2012), 4 (Texans get AFC #1 seed), 5 (Peyton one of Top-3 QBs), 7 (Falcons win division) and 10 (Both Manning's play in Title Games but lose to Houston and Chicago) and add five more predictions for the 2nd half.
2nd Half Predictions.
1.) The Ravens, somehow and someway, win their division despite no one thinking they are any good.
At this point, no one thinks the Ravens are close to a 6-2 type team, or even the best team in the AFC North. The Steelers have risen off the mat to contend, and are now one game back with both head-to-heads to come. That said, I like this Ravens team still. They are so damn resourceful, which they've been for so many years. If the Ravens just split with Pittsburgh, they are in great shape. The first tiebreaker after head-to-head for a division race is the division record. Neither have lost one yet. The Ravens still have to go to Cincy, while the Steelers still have to go to Cleveland (and play them at home as well). Then comes record in common games. The Steelers have already played both their uncommon games (Jets, Titans) and went 1-1. The Ravens have played theirs as well (New England, Houston) and went 1-1. It will be close, but I'll take the team with the one game lead right now.
2.) The Packers and Steelers become the 'Hot Wild-Card team no-one wants to play' entering the playoffs.
The Packers are 6-3 and the Steelers are 5-3. Both teams were 2-3. Both teams have QBs playing really well (I'm serious, Ben is playing well). Their defenses are playing better, and their offenses are playing great. The Steelers have a better shot at the division (the Packers have an additional game to make up), but I think the Ravens will hang on in the North. These will probably both be the #5 seeds, and that sets up for two interesting first round games, no matter who the opponents are. I can already see tons of pundits picking the Packers and Steelers to make runs, because that is what they do. I don't know if they will or not, but I think these will be the two teams that the public will get pounded with come January.
3.) Atlanta loses either @ New Orleans or @ Tampa Bay, but still gets the top seed, and for once, doesn't flame out in their first playoff game.
Atlanta can't go undefeated. The only team to reach 8-0 that I can remember being worse was the 2006 Colts. They ended up winning the Super Bowl, but they won quite a few close games and their run defense was pathetic. They ended up losing a strange game in Dallas in Week 11. The Falcons have passed all their tests, but that division, while still being completely in Atlanta's control, is not as bad anymore. In the next three weeks they will go to New Orleans and Tampa Bay. I can't see the Falcons winning both. Those are high powered offenses that can play a shoot-out with the Falcons, and both are desperate in the Wild-Card race. That said, the Falcons should still get the #1 seed. The Bears are 7-1, but their schedule is tougher going forward, with two road divisional games as well, and a trip to San Francisco and Arizona. This all said, no one seems to care about what the Falcons are doing because they haven't won a playoff game in the Ryan/Smith era, and the last time they got the #1 seed they were blasted 48-21 at home by the Packers. I think they win at least one playoff game. The NFC is really tough, but teams rarely lose four straight playoff games. Manning and Brady have both had streaks of three straight playoff losses, but they didn't let it go to 4. I don't think Ryan and Smith do it either. This team is better set to win, with a better passing game and an option outside of just Roddy White in Julio Jones, Their defense is also better, with Asante Samuel joining the fold. I think they can beat any team in one game at home. Can they do both, probably not. I'm thinking about dropping this prediction because this and my prediction of Giants vs Bears as a Title Game conflict, but who cares. Spread out my risk, I guess.
4.) NBC doesn't get any good choices for Week 17, but takes good use of its flex-powers before that.
In 2007, 11 of the 12 playoff spots were locked up before Week 17. The only one remaining was if the Titans or Browns would get the #6 seed in the AFC. This left NBC nothing, and they chose to flex in the Titans @ Colts, where the Colts, locked into the #2 seed, rested their starters and the Titans flew into the playoffs. That was a stark contrast to 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011, where the last game was a winner-take-all division battle (Broncos @ Chargers, Eagles @ Cowboys, Rams @ Seahawks, and Cowboys @ Giants). This Week 17 looks dim. The races in the AFC South, East, West and NFC East, South and West should be wrapped up by then. The two Norths could be up for grabs, with the Bears and Packers in the NFC and Ravens and Steelers in the AFC. Sadly, none of those play each other. I guess we could see a Packers vs Vikings game, or a Steelers vs Browns type game. This is the risk of making the Week 17 games all inter-division matchups, because then it makes it harder to have a winner-take-all for a Wild Card type game.
That said, they can really use those flex powers. The last couple years, NBC hasn't flexed out too many games, but they have a shot here. Flex Scheduling starts in Week 11. Here is the scheduled games in Weeks 11-16: Ravens @ Steelers, Packers @ Giants, Eagles @ Cowboys, Lions @ Packers, 49ers @ Patriots, and Chargers @ Jets. The games in Week 11, 12 and 15 seem like locks to stay (Ravens @ Steelers, Packers @ Giants and 49ers @ Packers), but the other three seem ripe for change.
Week 13.) NBC might keep Eagles @ Cowboys because it is Dallas, but NBC shouldn't. Anyway, there are a lot better options for Week 13. There are many games with serious playoff implications. Unless the Lions or Colts crash, their matchup could be a prime candidate. If the Bucs and Seahawks stay afloat, their visits to Denver and Chicago seem like good choices as well. The best option, depending on what happens to Miami, the Patriots @ Dolphins game could be a good choice as well.
Week 14.) Lions @ Packers might be a good game with huge Wild Card implications, but I don't think it is truly safe here. Chargers @ Steelers could be the best option between two likely wild-card competitors. Bears @ Vikings could be an option as well if the Vikings stay afloat. Overall, I think Chargers @ Steelers takes this spot, and it should.
Week 16.) Just remove Chargers @ Jets right now. It might be an important game for the Chargers, but there is little chance it means anything for the Jets. The clear candidate is the other New York team, with the Giants @ Ravens. If the Seahawks play well, their game hosting the 49ers could be good as well, but Giants @ Ravens looks like the best game here.
5.) The NFL finally becomes what it doesn't want to, as way too many teams repeat in the playoffs.
Ever since I can remember, at least 5 playoff teams fail to make it back the next year. Last season, there were six teams in the playoffs that didn't make it in 2010 (Texans, Broncos, Bengals, 49ers, Giants, Lions). This year, there is a legitimate chance it could be just 2. The Texans, Patriots, Broncos are almost assured of getting in, and it is hard to see either the Ravens or Steelers both being caught. If they all make it, five of the six will get back in, and the funniest part? The new team could be the old team, the Colts. Over at the NFC, the Giants, Packers, 49ers, and Falcons seem all like locks. The Bears and Seahawks could be new (the Bears probably make it if Cutler doesn't get hurt), but there is a chance that the Lions (especially with their head-to-head win over Seattle) can get back again. There will be some familiar faces in January, but in different locations. The Falcons were a Wild-Card and probably will be the #1 seed. The two bye teams from 2012 could easily be the #3-4 seeds from 2011 in the AFC. It will still be new, but a lot of the same teams. Sounds a lot like the NBA. But this is what the NFL created by placing so much importance on passing.
Picks coming later in the Week. Can't believe the 1st Half is over, but I think the 2nd Half will be really fun.
