Year-to-Date: 67-53
Cincinnati Bengals (6-2) @ Miami Dolphins (3-4) (CIN -3)
The Bengals are entering having won their last four games. The Dolphins are entering having lost their last four games. Of course, it only seems logical that I like the Dolphins to cover and win. The Dolphins play well at night home games, the only games where they really get any sort of Home Field advantage. The Bengals are getting a little overhyped right now, and historically, teams coming off giant wins like the Bengals 49-9 win over the Jets fail to cover the next week. Since the line is this low, not covering essentially means losing.
Bengals 17 Dolphins 24 (MIA +3)
Minnesota Vikings (1-6) @ Dallas Cowboys (4-4) (DAL -10.5)
This is a classic case where I think the line is too high, but the favorite plays like the favorite should and they blow they lid off the underdog. I can totally see the Cowboys destroying Minnesota's awful defense, with Dez Bryant having a 'fuck you' game and getting like 175 yards and two TDs. Of course, I could see Adrian Peterson having the same stat line, and Ponder wasn't awful last week. In the end, I'll go with my head and go against 10 point favorites (especially ones as mediocre as the Cowboys), but my gut is really disagreeing with this.
Vikings 20 Cowboys 28 (MIN +10.5)
Tennessee Titans (3-4) @ St. Louis Rams (3-5) (TEN -3)
Jeff Fisher's first game against the Rams isn't getting any attention, nor should it. Instead of the Rams being the plucky underdog, it is the Titans, who were emulating everything great about vintage-era Fisher teams in their 3-1 start. Jake Locker should be better off the bye than he was two weeks ago. I'm surprised the Titans are favored by three, though, in St. Louis. I realize the Titans have a better resume, but the Rams showed a lot on Monday Night. I had a theory that they left it all out on the field on MNF, and might be emotionally spent this week, against a non-conference opponent. With the low line, there's good value in picking Tennessee, and I'll do it. The Titans beat Jeff Fisher.
Titans 20 Rams 13 (TEN -3)
San Diego Chargers (4-3) @ Washington Redskins (2-5) (SD -0.5)
I'm stunned the Chargers aren't bigger favorites in this game. They've shown twice this year that they can travel East and play well (win in Philadelphia, should-have-been-win in Tennessee). The Redskins defense showed that it still isn't any good last week, and their offense had no control against Denver. They might get some lift by playing at home, but the Chargers are just a better team, off of their bye. They can't afford to lose any games with all four of their Denver/KC games coming up (they host Denver next week). I don't think they will.
Chargers 34 Redskins 24 (SD -0.5)
Atlanta Falcons (2-5) @ Carolina Panthers (4-3) (CAR -7.5)
High line, as Vegas is starting to really respect the Panthers, who've blown out the four teams they played that were clearly worse than them (the Bills aren't clearly worse). At home, they've been great (2 wins and 1 close loss to Seattle). The Falcons, even if Roddy White plays, are clearly worse than the Panthers are right now. I thought the Panthers were better than a healthy Atlanta team. The Panthers are just playing really well right now (I already envision picking them to beat New England two Monday's from now). They can abuse that makeshift O-Line of Atlanta, shutting down any semblance of a run game, and tee off on Ryan just like Arizona did. It is amazing the Falcons, who started 10-0 last season, are in this bad shape but life changes quickly in the NFL.
Falcons 17 Panthers 30 (CAR -7.5)
Kansas City Chiefs (8-0) @ Buffalo Bills (3-5) (KC -4)
If Thad Lewis was definitely starting, I would pick Buffalo to win. They have the type of offense that could give Kansas City trouble, they have a good D-Line that can get to Alex Smith, and an array of coverage linebackers that can stop the Chiefs' screen game. Alas, Thad Lewis is doubtful, and I don't trust Jeff Tuel at all. It is amazing the Chiefs get to play a 3rd straight 3rd-string QB (Keenum, Campbell). Sometimes the breaks just happen all year long. They're in for a rude awakening, with five of the last seven games featuring Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers and Andrew Luck, the three best QBs in the AFC this season.
If Thad Lewis Somehow Starts: Chiefs 17 Bills 20 (BUF +4)
If Jeff Tuel starts: Chiefs 23 Bills 13 (KC -4)
New Orleans Saints (6-1) @ New York Jets (4-4) (NO -7)
I love this game for the Jets. First, the reverse of the Bengals high-win theory applies here, as teams that lose games by a ton generally cover the next week. The Jets have played well at home, and the Saints are still nowhere near as dynamic offensively outside of the Dome. The Jets can get to Brees (many teams have, actually) with their line having good matchups against an overrated O-Line for New Orleans. Rex will know Rob's defense, and I can see the Saints defense struggling against the Jets offense. The problem is against a defense like Rob Ryan's, Geno could have a 3-4 turnover game, but I can't see him having another one.
Saints 23 Jets 27 (NYJ +7)
Philadelphia Eagles (3-5) @ Oakland Raiders (3-4) (OAK -2.5)
The Raiders are favored for the 2nd time this year, and they covered the first time. Of course, that was against the Jaguars. It is hard to believe the Raiders have a greater than 50% chance of being 4-4 at the halfway point. No one would have expected that. No one could have imagined their band-of-castoffs defense playing this well. That defense gets to play against an offense similar to their own, against a potentially rusty Nick Foles. The less-than-a-field goal line gives great value in picking the Raiders. I'm ready for my mind to be blown, for the AFC West to have all four teams above .500 halfway through.
Eagles 20 Raiders 26 (OAK -2.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-7) @ Seattle Seahawks (7-1) (SEA -16)
This is a high line. The Seahawks have had a few, covering easily against Jacksonville and not coming close to covering against the Rams. There are some easy logic in picking against Seattle. First, their offense is in disarray, and not only is Percy Harvin not back yet, but Sidney Rice is gone, and their two tackles are still not back. The Bucs still have a really talented defense, and Revis looked like Revis last TNF. Secondly, teams cover at a ridiculous percentage the week after they play on TNF. The Buccaneers mutiny of a season likely reached its nadir last week as well. This is the time to bet on Tampa Bay to cover. As a rule, I would always pick an underdog by more than 15, but those are reasons why that pick is more sensible than just blindly following a trend. Of course, this could easily be wrong when it is 34-3 in the 3rd quarter.
Buccaneers 13 Seahawks 27 (TB +16)
Baltimore Ravens (3-4) @ Cleveland Browns (3-5) (BAL -2.5)
Jason Campbell's starting again, which could be a good thing. He played rather well last weekend, against the league's best defense. The Ravens defense isn't as good, but it isn't that far away. They also play more conservative coverage defensively, which could lead to scores of Jason Campbell checkdowns. The Ravens offense, I would hope, would be a little better off of their bye. Their run game has to get going sooner or later. The line is low (as are many this weekend), and I just can't pick the Ravens to go two games under .500. They also have dominated the Browns in recent years (in win-loss more than actual games), and I think that continues.
Ravens 23 Browns 13 (BAL -2.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-5) @ New England Patriots (6-2) (NE -7)
I feel strongly about this game. I would feel more strongly had Shaun Shuisam not (mis)kicked away last weeks game in Oakland, but I think the talent level here is closer than people would think. First, despite records, Ben Roethlisberger's having a better season than Tom Brady. The Patriots run game is better. The defense for Ne England is better, but with current injuries they're probably about equal. Of course, those judgements are biased, as I'm the same person who picked the Steelers to go 12-4 in the preseason. Looking past that, I think the Steelers keep this close. I wish the line was a little higher, but even Vegas has seemingly softened on New England. I wouldn't be shocked if the Steelers win, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Patriots cover in a win, but I doubt it is a blowout and I think the most likely outcome is another sluggish, semi-ugly Patriots win.
Steelers 21 Patriots 24 (PIT +7)
Indianapolis Colts (5-2) @ Houston Texans (2-5) (IND -3)
This game terrifies me as a Colts fan. Actually, the only thing that terrifies me is the loss of Reggie Wayne. My worst fear is Andrew Luck struggling early without Wayne and Pep Hamilton becoming more insular and determined in pushing his run-first offense. The Texans still have a good defense, and JJ Watt could, and more likely will, be as dominant as he ever and always is. The Colts defense matches up reasonably well with the Texans offense, but the Colts struggle against the run, the one thing that could keep an underdog Houston in the game. Also, just like in the San Diego game three weeks ago, the Colts don't have much to play for (even with a loss, they'll be at least 1.5 games up in the division), while the Texans are playing for their season. I hate doing this, but I think it is the right pick.
Colts 20 Texans 24 (HOU +3)
Chicago Bears (4-3) @ Green Bay Packers (5-2) (GB -11)
So many conflicting ideas in picking this game. The Bears are much better prepared to absorb the loss of Cutler this year than they were two years ago when it was Caleb Hanie replaced him (not only is McCown better than Hanie, but the outside players in Chicago are far better than two years ago), and I still don't trust the Packers defense. There's also the double digit line. The Packers, though, have a long history of just dominating divisional rivals when they're down (35-7 over a Hanie-led Bears team in 2011, last week, Detroit in 2008-09). The Bears defense just isn't very good right now, and the Packers offense is still humming with a running game picking up the missing offense of Cobb and Finley. In the end, I'll go with the double digit line, as it works over the long haul. Not confident about either the Buccaneers or Bears covering the double digits, but hopefully at least one does.
Bears 24 Packers 34 (CHI +11)
Enjoy the games!!
/Sure, it is a bad slate of games, but better days are ahead)
