Every now and then a gambler has these types of weeks, where everything goes wrong, where nothing goes right, where all the bets are wrong. This was a Holy Shit type of weekend for me, my worst in a long, long time. It's weekends like this that reminds you that no one knows anything.
Looking Back at Last Week's Pick
Colts (-2.5) over TITANS (CORRECT = 1-0)
TEXANS (-9) over Raiders (WRONG = 1-1)
JAGUARS (+9) over Cardinals (WRONG = 1-2)
Falcons (-1) over BUCCANEERS (WRONG = 1-3)
BENGALS (-6.5) over Browns (CORRECT = 2-3)
Jets (-2) over BILLS (WRONG = 2-4)
Lions (-3) over STEELERS (WRONG = 2-5)
Redskins (+4) over EAGLES (WRONG = 2-6)
Ravens (+3) over BEARS (PUSH = 2-6-1)
DOLPHINS (+2.5) over Chargers (CORRECT = 3-6-1)
Vikings (+12.5) over SEAHAWKS (WRONG = 3-7-1)
GIANTS (-4.5) over Packers (CORRECT = 4-7-1)
SAINTS (-3.5) over 49ers (WRONG = 4-8-1)
BRONCOS (-7.5) over Chiefs (CORRECT = 5-8-1)
Patriots (+1.5) over PANTHERS (WRONG = 5-9-1)
Week 11: 5-9-1
Year-to-Date: 89-70-3
Power Rankings
32.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9 = 129-318)
Welcome back, terrible Jaguars!!! Their one week trip to Disneyworld with a win over Tennessee put firmly in the rear-view mirror, they went back out and continued their march to the #1 overall pick. They made Carson Palmer look like a good QB, and their offense has returned to horrible levels. Glad to have you back.
31.) Atlanta Falcons (2-8 = 214-292)
I find it amazing how far the Falcons have come. Matt Ryan is still a good player, and this could easily be just one terrible year in a great run. There is no way this team is in a vacuum a 2-8 team. There are two teams that are in great position to do next year what the Chiefs did this year. One is the Falcons, who can't be this injured again.
30.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8 = 187-237)
The other is Tampa. Despite this little renaissance the last two weeks, I think Schaino still gets fired. This team is loaded with talent on defense (David, Revis, McCoy, Bowers), has a Top-10 WR in Vincent Jackson, a decent O-Line, and an intriguing QB prospect. That is actually more than what KC had last year. Lovie Smith should take over this team, and go 12-4 next year.
29.) Houston Texans (2-8 = 193-276)
I guess Houston could do the same. It is amazing that there are five teams that have less than three wins through 10 games, and two of them went a combined 25-7 last year (and a 3rd was a playoff team). Is there a better representation of how crazy the NFL is than this? It repeats saying, but JJ Watt is a monster. He's from another planet. He's having one of the Greatest starts to a career ever. Ever.
28.) Washington Redskins (3-7 = 246-311)
What a terrible performance in Washington. The offense didn't do a thing until they were down big. Yes, they made a game effort at coming back, but then that ends with one of the worst throws I've seen RGIII make. It is somewhat surprising how inaccurate RGIII has been this season. I hope for his sake it is just a matter of him getting confidence and strength in his plant leg.
27.) Minnesota Vikings (2-8 = 240-320)
I picked the Vikings to cover, and then saw them tied at 10-10 midway through the 2nd quarter. That didn't last long, as the Seahawks went on a 31-3 run. The Vikings have to stick with a QB, and I still think their best option is Ponder. He's just more calm and consistent than the other two. He might have less upside, but the chances of Freeman or Cassel hitting that upside are really, really low.
26.) Tennessee Titans (4-6 = 227-226)
The Titans begin a string of teams that are either 4-6, 4-7 or 5-5. The NFL is more mediocre than ever with their teams this year, and in the AFC, that is a great thing. There are only two AFC teams more than one game behind the current #6 seed Jets the Jags and Texans). The Titans are the only one of those 5-5/4-6 AFC Teams with a positive point differential, but they are also one missing their starting QB for the year, and with a relatively tough schedule left.
25.) Oakland Raiders (4-6 = 194-246)
I'll get to this more in the preview of next week's games, but the Raiders have a huge game coming up against the Titans. The Raiders are 4-6, but they could easily end 5-11 or 6-10. McGloin played well, I guess, but I feel like he'll be exposed as more teams get a look at him. The Raiders have a solid future, but somehow, someway, they could be the #6 seed, as wins over both Pittsburgh and, potentially, Tennessee could help.
24.) Cleveland Browns (4-6 = 192-238)
They had to protect a 13-point lead for 45 minutes, and they would essentially be leading the AFC North. Instead, they couldn't protect it for 5 minutes, and were down 31-13 by halftime. Just a stunning collapse. Hard to believe they could hold Andy Dalton to under 100 yards, and lose by 21 and give up 41 points. Just another example of how overrated yards allowed is. Jason Campbell returned to being Captain Checkdown in full in that game also.
23.) St. Louis Rams (4-6 = 224-234)
The Rams are basically slightly worse than what they were a year ago (while the Cardinals are slightly better than what they were a year ago). Kellen Clemens is a decent QB and knows that system, but they'll be playing against a lot of teams that have way more to play for than themselves (Arizona, San Francisco, Seattle, New Orleans, Chicago). The season could end really badly.
22.) Buffalo Bills (4-7 = 236-273)
A nice win for the Bills, but they probably weren't as impressive as the score indicates since they took advantage of one of the worst QB performances I have ever seen. EJ Manuel was alright, and Marquise Goodwin is a find, but I think tehy need more from their supposedly good running game and they need Stevie Johnson back to have any real chance, which I don't think they do.
21.) New York Jets (5-5 = 183-268)
Out of all the 4-6/5-5 teams in the AFC race for the #6 seed, the Jets have been outscored the most, but they also have the best wins, with games over the Patriots and Saints. The Jets have a relatively easy schedule, but they have to figure out a way to win back-to-back games, and figure out a way to play on the road, and that starts this week against the Ravens, one of the team of 9 (SD, MIA, PIT, BAL, BUF, CLE, OAK, TEN, NYJ). There are a lot of head-to-head games between these teams, and really those will decide everything.
20.) Pittsburgh Steelers (4-6 = 216-245)
The Steelers lost 31-55, and have now won their last two games, both at home. I have no idea what to think of this team. All I know is I don't want them to be the #6 seed. In this crazy season, if there has to be an AFC Wild-Card team at 8-8, let it be new blood, not a blue-blood team having a bad season. I still think there are massive underlying problems with the Steelers, but there are with all of these teams in the Gang of 9.
19.) Miami Dolphins (5-5 = 213-225)
Big win by Miami, who's pass rush is continuing to keep them in all of their games. Just imagine if their pass rush could go up against the Dolphins depleted-due-to-bullying O-Line in a real game. Tannehill might be ruined forever. The Dolphins are still in this, with two games against the current #6 seed Jets left, and haven't gotten squat from Mike Wallace. I have to think he makes in impact on this race sooner or later.
18.) Dallas Cowboys (5-5 = 274-258)
I hope the Cowboys looked internally on that defense during their bye. There are injury issues that won't get fixed, but the Giants offense had its best game of the year last week against Green Bay, and now can get some revenge on that Week 1 loss to Dallas. The Cowboys offense hopefully got some time to rest and get Miles Austin healthy as well. With their 3-0 division record, they still have many tiebreaker advantages, but for a team that looked so bad, it may not matter.
17.) San Diego Chargers (4-6 = 228-222)
I lied when I said the Titans were the only one of the Gang of 9 that had a positive points differential. The Chargers have one as well. The Chargers lost a few really close games early, and are now just losing games they should win. Their season really resides in this game this weekend. Are they good enough to beat Kansas City? Yes. Will they? I have my doubts, as the Chargers really have just one good road performance this year, their Week 2 win in Philadelphia.
16.) New York Giants (4-6 = 192-256)
Four in a row, and now they get to put the loss that sent them in their death spiral behind them and beat the Cowboys. Let's go back to Week 1, when the Giants, my preseason pick to win the NFC, mostly dominated the Cowboys, but turned it over six times, including a pick six when driving down 30-24 with a chance to win. The Giants are a much better team today, especially defensively, than they were then. The Giants are in this, but they'll need help from someone with Philadelphia.
15.) Baltimore Ravens (4-6 = 208-212)
The Ravens have had a really bad case of the Super Bowl Hangover. They've lost major offensive contributors for long stretches. Joe Flacco hasn't done too much to actually earn that ridiculous contract he was given. Ray Rice has about one good name. Yet, here they are, just one game back of the #6 seed, with the chance to beat the Jets next weekend. They might just squeak in as a #6 seed, and automatically become the most dangerous #6 seed in a while.
14.) Green Bay Packers (5-5 = 258-239)
If the Packers were in the AFC, they could have survived another two weeks without Rodgers and still been alive for a Wild Card. Alas, they're in the NFC, and are now a full game behind Chicago, San Francisco and Arizona (the first two they've lost to). The Packers have played decently without Rodgers, but it is amazing how less scary those position players are without Rodgers throwing filthy passes to them.
13.) Philadelphia Eagles (6-5 = 276-260)
Are the Eagles actually good? Nick Foles ridiculous streak without a pick will end, and maybe spectacularily so (see David Garrard, 2007, or Damon Huard, 2006), but he's a decent QB, and that defense is playing so much better than it was early in the season. The team reminds me a lot of the 2012 Redskins, an offense people haven't totally figured out yet, and a defense that is playing better than its personnel dictates it should. That might be good enough for a division title, but no way near enough for Carolina/New Orleans in Round 1.
12.) Arizona Cardinals (6-4 = 214-212)
I said it weeks ago, that this time was going to quietly make a playoff push, and they still could. I also said a few weeks ago that ending with @SEA/vs.SF will kill their chances, but what if that Week 17 game is for the #6 seed. The game is in Arizona. Sure, the Bears/Lions loser and Packers are still in that Wild Card picture, but the Cardinals have an easier schedule until those last two games. It would be really fun to see that defense that should be getting more national attention play a playoff game, or at least a Week 17 play-in game.
11.) Chicago Bears (6-4 = 282-267)
I've read a few people state that maybe Josh McCown is just better than Jay Cutler, but I have to vehemently disagree. McCown has faced just one defense that is even above average (Baltimore), and didn't play all that well against them. He's a good QB, but I put that more on Marshall/Jefferey/Bennett and Marc Trestman. Cutler will be fine long term, and should (and will) reclaim his starting QB job when he gets healthy, but unlike in 2011 down the stretch, the Bears have a more than capable backup. More importantly, they have a more than competent offensive system.
10.) Detroit Lions (6-4 = 265-253)
Oh, what a terrible loss. They had a shot at a bye (and I guess still do). They had a shot to put the hammer down on their division. They had a chance to give the Steelers more misery than they've felt in decades. They probably could have done many of these things. I haven't seen much of this game, but I can't understand how the Steeers defense suddenly found out how to play defense again in that 2nd half. The Lions defense is better than they showed, but that defense can't travel at all.
9.) San Francisco 49ers (6-4 = 247-178)
The 49ers are what we all thought the Panthers were, the team that can beat the living shit out of bad teams, but will struggle to beat any good team. They've played four teams with a winning, and have lost to all of them. They've scored 3, 7, 9 and 20 points in those games, and the 20 points came mostly off of short fields on various turnovers. Colin Kaepernick is part of the problem, but the bigger one is that the league has more or less figured out the passing game run in that pistol offense, and the O-Line just isn't where it was even last year.
8.) Indianapolis Colts (7-3 = 252-220)
The Colts have to stop falling behind by 14. If they do it against Arizona, there is little chance of them coming back against that defense. Andrew Luck hasn't really risen to the occasion since Wayne's injury, but his WRs are even further behind in rising to the occasion. DHB has been a bust, and TY Hilton can only do so much. The Colts defense does one thing good, though, in that they make great adjustments at halftime. Their 2nd half defense is so much better than in the 1st half.
7.) Cincinnati Bengals (7-4 = 275-206)
Since they really didn't deserve to win the Ravens game, I can't say they've been unlucky to lose two games in OT, but if you give them one of those as wins, they would be the current #2 seed, and be the overall favorites to get there if they beat the Colts. They still have a shot since they have a chance at having the head-to-head win over both Indianapolis and New England, but it will be tough. I give a ton of credit to the Bengals for continuing to play excellent defense even after the Geno Atkins injury.
6.) Kansas City Chiefs (9-1 = 232-138)
Honestly, my opinion of Kansas City barely changed after that game. I still don't think their offense is good enough to score 30 points if they ever need to. I think their defense is very good. If I have any concern, it is that maybe their pass rush was slightly overrated with that sacks number. 10 of the 36 sacks came in one game, and they now have just 1 sack in the last three games combined. The bigger game for them was always the 2nd Broncos game in Arrowhead, but just like the Broncos, they have a tricky game coming up with San Diego. They can't afford to overlook them.
5.) New England Patriots (7-3 = 254-199)
OK, about the no-call. I was fine with it. First, if the back judge never throws the flag, this is not even a story. He did, but the referees conferred, and two other referees said they strongly believed the ball was uncatchable. That is how the process is supposed to work. The process worked correctly. They just ended up choosing a judgement (on a completely judgement call) that went against what most people believed to be the correct judgement. As for the game, it's odd to see the Patriots play rather well, and still lose. The last time I remember this happening in earnest was against the Giants in Super Bowl XLVI. Generally, when the Patriots lose, they don't play very well. Here, not much to complain about their play, but maybe they just aren't as good as Carolina right now.
4.) Carolina Panthers (7-3 = 238-135)
Speaking of which, I want Steve Smith to appear once a year on MNF for the next 20 years just so he can come up with a great put down line. First, it was introducing 'that young'n' to the 'rules and regulations of the game' in a 2009 MNF win over Minnesota, and now it was 'Ice Up, Son!' towards Aqib Talib (who Steve Smith dominated, physically and mentally). I love Steve Smith, but I loved the calmness of the Pantheres more. They never panicked in that game. They never seemed to think they had to play out of their head. They never went down after going 3-and-out after the Patriots tied in at 17. The Panthers played a really good game, and most people will forget that in the wake of the call.
3.) New Orleans Saints (8-2 = 288-183)
Did the Saints deserve to win that game? Honestly, yes. They were play-by-play, the better team, but turned over the ball too many times. If the 49ers did prove one thing, it is that the Saints are not invincible at home, and that good defenses can contain them. Still, that was a huge win, made even bigger due to Carolina also winning. They need to enter their two-in-three-week showdown with Carolina a game up. They have some landmines left in that schedule, but their defense hasn't slowed down all year.
2.) Seattle Seahawks (10-1 = 306-179)
The Seattle Seahawks are a really good team. They are doing exactly what they did a year ago, go on a run and dominate their opponents late in the season. I don't think they can dominate the Saints in two weeks, (or the 49ers in San Francisco), but the Seahawks are a great team right now, and the NFC should have taken games off of them when they could. Unless the Saints can shock them in Seattle, the Seahawks should be the #1 seed, and as they showed with a slightly less talented team in 2005, Seattle with a #1 seed is bad news for the NFC.
1.) Denver Broncos (9-1 = 398-255)
The good news is Peyton Manning did not look the least bit hobbled in that game, and they were able to move the ball and never really be challenged against one of the best defenses in the NFL. The bad news, they have the ultra-important 2nd meeting the week after the most hyped game of the season. The greatest news for Denver is that with New England's loss, they go back to controlling their destiny for the #1 seed even if they lose to New England. In a way, they can put the Patriots game on the side and really focus on the game in Arrowhead. They won't do that (I hope), but they can, and that is excellent news.
Playoff Projections
AFC
1.) Denver Broncos (14-2)
2.) New England Patriots (12-4)
3.) Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)
4.) Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
5.) Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)
6.) Who the hell knows (9-7)
NFC
1.) Seattle Seahawks (14-2)
2.) New Orleans Saints (12-4)
3.) Detroit Lions (10-6)
4.) Philadelphia Eagles (9-7)
5.) Carolina Panthers (12-4)
6.) Chicago Bears (10-6)
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
14.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) @ Houston Texans (2-8) (1:00 - CBS)
13.) Minnesota Vikings (2-8) @ Green Bay Packers (5-6) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Yes, these teams still have to play this season" Sunday, as the Jaguars, Texans and Vikings all have to continue playing football. If the Packers can't beat the Vikings in a must-win game without Aaron Rodgers, then Ted Thompson should be questioned about the build of that team. Scott Tolzein isn't much worse than any of the three potential Vikings' QBs.
12.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8) @ Detroit Lions (6-4) (1:00 - FOX)
11.) New Orleans Saints (8-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (2-8) (TNF - NFLN)
10.) San Francisco 49ers (6-4) @ Washington Redskins (3-7) (MNF - ESPN)
I call it "Upset Watch in the NFC" Sunday, as three NFC teams that are playoff teams if the playoffs started today (I believe the 49ers would be the #6 seed today) play three bad teams. Two have to go on the road in primetime, which is a great spot for a shock upset (Washington is probably more likely, but Atlanta might show a pulse this week).
9.) San Diego Chargers (4-6) @ Kansas City Chiefs (9-1) (1:00 - CBS)
8.) Tennessee Titans (4-6) @ Oakland Raiders (4-6) (4:05 - CBS)
7.) Pittsburgh Steelers (4-6) @ Cleveland Browns (4-6) (1:00 - CBS)
6.) New York Jets (5-5) @ Baltimore Ravens (4-6) (1:00 - CBS)
5.) Carolina Panthers (7-3) @ Miami Dolphins (5-5) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Don't You Love the Gang of 9!" Sunday, as 8 of the 9 members of the Gang play in games that could really help pare out some teams as we head towards December. The Bills (4-7) are the only team not playing, which is nice since they are the longest shot with their already 7 losses. Three are games featuring two of The Gang, and they are all somewhat interesting. The Chargers get to play the Chiefs for the first time in a must-win game and a huge trap game for the Chiefs. The Panthers get to take their six game win streak into Miami to play a team that quietly is right back in the playoff picture.
4.) Chicago Bears (6-4) @ St. Louis Rams (4-6) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "A Good Old Fashioned Game" Sunday, that is saved by the presence of two backups that have looked far better than anticipated. The Rams D-Line is a nice test of the Bears O-Line. The Bears definitely need this game more, and it will fun to watch their WRs go up against the Rams defense play after play.
3.) Indianapolis Colts (7-3) @ Arizona Cardinals (6-4) (4:05 - CBS)
I call it "The Best Inter-Conference Game Money Can Buy" Sunday, as Bruce Arians, a nice candidate for Coach of the Year, matches wits against the coach he replaced on an interim basis. The Colts can't afford a slow start in this one, as the Cardinals defense is far better than those that let the Colts off the hook. The Colts have to be up for this game, as the Cardinals have knocked off similar or better teams at home this season.
2.) Dallas Cowboys (5-5) @ New York Giants (4-6) (4:25 - FOX)
I call it "The First of Too Many Mediocre NFC East vs. NFC East Matchups" Sunday, as the Cowboys and Giants play a big game. If the Giants win, the NFC East is basically a beautiful three team race of mediocre teams. If the Cowboys win, we can almost pencil in that Week 17 game between the Eagles and Cowboys in Dallas as the game for the division. Fun game, really.
1.) Denver Broncos (9-1) @ New England Patriots (7-3) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "The War of 18/12" Sunday, as the league gets what they've gotten every year since 2013 (save for 2008 and 2011, where one of the two main players was gone - of course, the matchup still happened). Brady is 9-4 overall, but that is 4-3 for Manning since 2005. Also, in primetime, Manning is 4-1, winning in 2005, 2006, 2009 and in the 2006 AFC Championship. Also, the team with the better record entering the game has won each of the last five matchups. Should be awesome, as per usual.
Looking Back at Last Week's Pick
Colts (-2.5) over TITANS (CORRECT = 1-0)
TEXANS (-9) over Raiders (WRONG = 1-1)
JAGUARS (+9) over Cardinals (WRONG = 1-2)
Falcons (-1) over BUCCANEERS (WRONG = 1-3)
BENGALS (-6.5) over Browns (CORRECT = 2-3)
Jets (-2) over BILLS (WRONG = 2-4)
Lions (-3) over STEELERS (WRONG = 2-5)
Redskins (+4) over EAGLES (WRONG = 2-6)
Ravens (+3) over BEARS (PUSH = 2-6-1)
DOLPHINS (+2.5) over Chargers (CORRECT = 3-6-1)
Vikings (+12.5) over SEAHAWKS (WRONG = 3-7-1)
GIANTS (-4.5) over Packers (CORRECT = 4-7-1)
SAINTS (-3.5) over 49ers (WRONG = 4-8-1)
BRONCOS (-7.5) over Chiefs (CORRECT = 5-8-1)
Patriots (+1.5) over PANTHERS (WRONG = 5-9-1)
Week 11: 5-9-1
Year-to-Date: 89-70-3
Power Rankings
32.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9 = 129-318)
Welcome back, terrible Jaguars!!! Their one week trip to Disneyworld with a win over Tennessee put firmly in the rear-view mirror, they went back out and continued their march to the #1 overall pick. They made Carson Palmer look like a good QB, and their offense has returned to horrible levels. Glad to have you back.
31.) Atlanta Falcons (2-8 = 214-292)
I find it amazing how far the Falcons have come. Matt Ryan is still a good player, and this could easily be just one terrible year in a great run. There is no way this team is in a vacuum a 2-8 team. There are two teams that are in great position to do next year what the Chiefs did this year. One is the Falcons, who can't be this injured again.
30.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8 = 187-237)
The other is Tampa. Despite this little renaissance the last two weeks, I think Schaino still gets fired. This team is loaded with talent on defense (David, Revis, McCoy, Bowers), has a Top-10 WR in Vincent Jackson, a decent O-Line, and an intriguing QB prospect. That is actually more than what KC had last year. Lovie Smith should take over this team, and go 12-4 next year.
29.) Houston Texans (2-8 = 193-276)
I guess Houston could do the same. It is amazing that there are five teams that have less than three wins through 10 games, and two of them went a combined 25-7 last year (and a 3rd was a playoff team). Is there a better representation of how crazy the NFL is than this? It repeats saying, but JJ Watt is a monster. He's from another planet. He's having one of the Greatest starts to a career ever. Ever.
28.) Washington Redskins (3-7 = 246-311)
What a terrible performance in Washington. The offense didn't do a thing until they were down big. Yes, they made a game effort at coming back, but then that ends with one of the worst throws I've seen RGIII make. It is somewhat surprising how inaccurate RGIII has been this season. I hope for his sake it is just a matter of him getting confidence and strength in his plant leg.
27.) Minnesota Vikings (2-8 = 240-320)
I picked the Vikings to cover, and then saw them tied at 10-10 midway through the 2nd quarter. That didn't last long, as the Seahawks went on a 31-3 run. The Vikings have to stick with a QB, and I still think their best option is Ponder. He's just more calm and consistent than the other two. He might have less upside, but the chances of Freeman or Cassel hitting that upside are really, really low.
26.) Tennessee Titans (4-6 = 227-226)
The Titans begin a string of teams that are either 4-6, 4-7 or 5-5. The NFL is more mediocre than ever with their teams this year, and in the AFC, that is a great thing. There are only two AFC teams more than one game behind the current #6 seed Jets the Jags and Texans). The Titans are the only one of those 5-5/4-6 AFC Teams with a positive point differential, but they are also one missing their starting QB for the year, and with a relatively tough schedule left.
25.) Oakland Raiders (4-6 = 194-246)
I'll get to this more in the preview of next week's games, but the Raiders have a huge game coming up against the Titans. The Raiders are 4-6, but they could easily end 5-11 or 6-10. McGloin played well, I guess, but I feel like he'll be exposed as more teams get a look at him. The Raiders have a solid future, but somehow, someway, they could be the #6 seed, as wins over both Pittsburgh and, potentially, Tennessee could help.
24.) Cleveland Browns (4-6 = 192-238)
They had to protect a 13-point lead for 45 minutes, and they would essentially be leading the AFC North. Instead, they couldn't protect it for 5 minutes, and were down 31-13 by halftime. Just a stunning collapse. Hard to believe they could hold Andy Dalton to under 100 yards, and lose by 21 and give up 41 points. Just another example of how overrated yards allowed is. Jason Campbell returned to being Captain Checkdown in full in that game also.
23.) St. Louis Rams (4-6 = 224-234)
The Rams are basically slightly worse than what they were a year ago (while the Cardinals are slightly better than what they were a year ago). Kellen Clemens is a decent QB and knows that system, but they'll be playing against a lot of teams that have way more to play for than themselves (Arizona, San Francisco, Seattle, New Orleans, Chicago). The season could end really badly.
22.) Buffalo Bills (4-7 = 236-273)
A nice win for the Bills, but they probably weren't as impressive as the score indicates since they took advantage of one of the worst QB performances I have ever seen. EJ Manuel was alright, and Marquise Goodwin is a find, but I think tehy need more from their supposedly good running game and they need Stevie Johnson back to have any real chance, which I don't think they do.
21.) New York Jets (5-5 = 183-268)
Out of all the 4-6/5-5 teams in the AFC race for the #6 seed, the Jets have been outscored the most, but they also have the best wins, with games over the Patriots and Saints. The Jets have a relatively easy schedule, but they have to figure out a way to win back-to-back games, and figure out a way to play on the road, and that starts this week against the Ravens, one of the team of 9 (SD, MIA, PIT, BAL, BUF, CLE, OAK, TEN, NYJ). There are a lot of head-to-head games between these teams, and really those will decide everything.
20.) Pittsburgh Steelers (4-6 = 216-245)
The Steelers lost 31-55, and have now won their last two games, both at home. I have no idea what to think of this team. All I know is I don't want them to be the #6 seed. In this crazy season, if there has to be an AFC Wild-Card team at 8-8, let it be new blood, not a blue-blood team having a bad season. I still think there are massive underlying problems with the Steelers, but there are with all of these teams in the Gang of 9.
19.) Miami Dolphins (5-5 = 213-225)
Big win by Miami, who's pass rush is continuing to keep them in all of their games. Just imagine if their pass rush could go up against the Dolphins depleted-due-to-bullying O-Line in a real game. Tannehill might be ruined forever. The Dolphins are still in this, with two games against the current #6 seed Jets left, and haven't gotten squat from Mike Wallace. I have to think he makes in impact on this race sooner or later.
18.) Dallas Cowboys (5-5 = 274-258)
I hope the Cowboys looked internally on that defense during their bye. There are injury issues that won't get fixed, but the Giants offense had its best game of the year last week against Green Bay, and now can get some revenge on that Week 1 loss to Dallas. The Cowboys offense hopefully got some time to rest and get Miles Austin healthy as well. With their 3-0 division record, they still have many tiebreaker advantages, but for a team that looked so bad, it may not matter.
17.) San Diego Chargers (4-6 = 228-222)
I lied when I said the Titans were the only one of the Gang of 9 that had a positive points differential. The Chargers have one as well. The Chargers lost a few really close games early, and are now just losing games they should win. Their season really resides in this game this weekend. Are they good enough to beat Kansas City? Yes. Will they? I have my doubts, as the Chargers really have just one good road performance this year, their Week 2 win in Philadelphia.
16.) New York Giants (4-6 = 192-256)
Four in a row, and now they get to put the loss that sent them in their death spiral behind them and beat the Cowboys. Let's go back to Week 1, when the Giants, my preseason pick to win the NFC, mostly dominated the Cowboys, but turned it over six times, including a pick six when driving down 30-24 with a chance to win. The Giants are a much better team today, especially defensively, than they were then. The Giants are in this, but they'll need help from someone with Philadelphia.
15.) Baltimore Ravens (4-6 = 208-212)
The Ravens have had a really bad case of the Super Bowl Hangover. They've lost major offensive contributors for long stretches. Joe Flacco hasn't done too much to actually earn that ridiculous contract he was given. Ray Rice has about one good name. Yet, here they are, just one game back of the #6 seed, with the chance to beat the Jets next weekend. They might just squeak in as a #6 seed, and automatically become the most dangerous #6 seed in a while.
14.) Green Bay Packers (5-5 = 258-239)
If the Packers were in the AFC, they could have survived another two weeks without Rodgers and still been alive for a Wild Card. Alas, they're in the NFC, and are now a full game behind Chicago, San Francisco and Arizona (the first two they've lost to). The Packers have played decently without Rodgers, but it is amazing how less scary those position players are without Rodgers throwing filthy passes to them.
13.) Philadelphia Eagles (6-5 = 276-260)
Are the Eagles actually good? Nick Foles ridiculous streak without a pick will end, and maybe spectacularily so (see David Garrard, 2007, or Damon Huard, 2006), but he's a decent QB, and that defense is playing so much better than it was early in the season. The team reminds me a lot of the 2012 Redskins, an offense people haven't totally figured out yet, and a defense that is playing better than its personnel dictates it should. That might be good enough for a division title, but no way near enough for Carolina/New Orleans in Round 1.
12.) Arizona Cardinals (6-4 = 214-212)
I said it weeks ago, that this time was going to quietly make a playoff push, and they still could. I also said a few weeks ago that ending with @SEA/vs.SF will kill their chances, but what if that Week 17 game is for the #6 seed. The game is in Arizona. Sure, the Bears/Lions loser and Packers are still in that Wild Card picture, but the Cardinals have an easier schedule until those last two games. It would be really fun to see that defense that should be getting more national attention play a playoff game, or at least a Week 17 play-in game.
11.) Chicago Bears (6-4 = 282-267)
I've read a few people state that maybe Josh McCown is just better than Jay Cutler, but I have to vehemently disagree. McCown has faced just one defense that is even above average (Baltimore), and didn't play all that well against them. He's a good QB, but I put that more on Marshall/Jefferey/Bennett and Marc Trestman. Cutler will be fine long term, and should (and will) reclaim his starting QB job when he gets healthy, but unlike in 2011 down the stretch, the Bears have a more than capable backup. More importantly, they have a more than competent offensive system.
10.) Detroit Lions (6-4 = 265-253)
Oh, what a terrible loss. They had a shot at a bye (and I guess still do). They had a shot to put the hammer down on their division. They had a chance to give the Steelers more misery than they've felt in decades. They probably could have done many of these things. I haven't seen much of this game, but I can't understand how the Steeers defense suddenly found out how to play defense again in that 2nd half. The Lions defense is better than they showed, but that defense can't travel at all.
9.) San Francisco 49ers (6-4 = 247-178)
The 49ers are what we all thought the Panthers were, the team that can beat the living shit out of bad teams, but will struggle to beat any good team. They've played four teams with a winning, and have lost to all of them. They've scored 3, 7, 9 and 20 points in those games, and the 20 points came mostly off of short fields on various turnovers. Colin Kaepernick is part of the problem, but the bigger one is that the league has more or less figured out the passing game run in that pistol offense, and the O-Line just isn't where it was even last year.
8.) Indianapolis Colts (7-3 = 252-220)
The Colts have to stop falling behind by 14. If they do it against Arizona, there is little chance of them coming back against that defense. Andrew Luck hasn't really risen to the occasion since Wayne's injury, but his WRs are even further behind in rising to the occasion. DHB has been a bust, and TY Hilton can only do so much. The Colts defense does one thing good, though, in that they make great adjustments at halftime. Their 2nd half defense is so much better than in the 1st half.
7.) Cincinnati Bengals (7-4 = 275-206)
Since they really didn't deserve to win the Ravens game, I can't say they've been unlucky to lose two games in OT, but if you give them one of those as wins, they would be the current #2 seed, and be the overall favorites to get there if they beat the Colts. They still have a shot since they have a chance at having the head-to-head win over both Indianapolis and New England, but it will be tough. I give a ton of credit to the Bengals for continuing to play excellent defense even after the Geno Atkins injury.
6.) Kansas City Chiefs (9-1 = 232-138)
Honestly, my opinion of Kansas City barely changed after that game. I still don't think their offense is good enough to score 30 points if they ever need to. I think their defense is very good. If I have any concern, it is that maybe their pass rush was slightly overrated with that sacks number. 10 of the 36 sacks came in one game, and they now have just 1 sack in the last three games combined. The bigger game for them was always the 2nd Broncos game in Arrowhead, but just like the Broncos, they have a tricky game coming up with San Diego. They can't afford to overlook them.
5.) New England Patriots (7-3 = 254-199)
OK, about the no-call. I was fine with it. First, if the back judge never throws the flag, this is not even a story. He did, but the referees conferred, and two other referees said they strongly believed the ball was uncatchable. That is how the process is supposed to work. The process worked correctly. They just ended up choosing a judgement (on a completely judgement call) that went against what most people believed to be the correct judgement. As for the game, it's odd to see the Patriots play rather well, and still lose. The last time I remember this happening in earnest was against the Giants in Super Bowl XLVI. Generally, when the Patriots lose, they don't play very well. Here, not much to complain about their play, but maybe they just aren't as good as Carolina right now.
4.) Carolina Panthers (7-3 = 238-135)
Speaking of which, I want Steve Smith to appear once a year on MNF for the next 20 years just so he can come up with a great put down line. First, it was introducing 'that young'n' to the 'rules and regulations of the game' in a 2009 MNF win over Minnesota, and now it was 'Ice Up, Son!' towards Aqib Talib (who Steve Smith dominated, physically and mentally). I love Steve Smith, but I loved the calmness of the Pantheres more. They never panicked in that game. They never seemed to think they had to play out of their head. They never went down after going 3-and-out after the Patriots tied in at 17. The Panthers played a really good game, and most people will forget that in the wake of the call.
3.) New Orleans Saints (8-2 = 288-183)
Did the Saints deserve to win that game? Honestly, yes. They were play-by-play, the better team, but turned over the ball too many times. If the 49ers did prove one thing, it is that the Saints are not invincible at home, and that good defenses can contain them. Still, that was a huge win, made even bigger due to Carolina also winning. They need to enter their two-in-three-week showdown with Carolina a game up. They have some landmines left in that schedule, but their defense hasn't slowed down all year.
2.) Seattle Seahawks (10-1 = 306-179)
The Seattle Seahawks are a really good team. They are doing exactly what they did a year ago, go on a run and dominate their opponents late in the season. I don't think they can dominate the Saints in two weeks, (or the 49ers in San Francisco), but the Seahawks are a great team right now, and the NFC should have taken games off of them when they could. Unless the Saints can shock them in Seattle, the Seahawks should be the #1 seed, and as they showed with a slightly less talented team in 2005, Seattle with a #1 seed is bad news for the NFC.
1.) Denver Broncos (9-1 = 398-255)
The good news is Peyton Manning did not look the least bit hobbled in that game, and they were able to move the ball and never really be challenged against one of the best defenses in the NFL. The bad news, they have the ultra-important 2nd meeting the week after the most hyped game of the season. The greatest news for Denver is that with New England's loss, they go back to controlling their destiny for the #1 seed even if they lose to New England. In a way, they can put the Patriots game on the side and really focus on the game in Arrowhead. They won't do that (I hope), but they can, and that is excellent news.
Playoff Projections
AFC
1.) Denver Broncos (14-2)
2.) New England Patriots (12-4)
3.) Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)
4.) Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
5.) Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)
6.) Who the hell knows (9-7)
NFC
1.) Seattle Seahawks (14-2)
2.) New Orleans Saints (12-4)
3.) Detroit Lions (10-6)
4.) Philadelphia Eagles (9-7)
5.) Carolina Panthers (12-4)
6.) Chicago Bears (10-6)
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
14.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) @ Houston Texans (2-8) (1:00 - CBS)
13.) Minnesota Vikings (2-8) @ Green Bay Packers (5-6) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Yes, these teams still have to play this season" Sunday, as the Jaguars, Texans and Vikings all have to continue playing football. If the Packers can't beat the Vikings in a must-win game without Aaron Rodgers, then Ted Thompson should be questioned about the build of that team. Scott Tolzein isn't much worse than any of the three potential Vikings' QBs.
12.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8) @ Detroit Lions (6-4) (1:00 - FOX)
11.) New Orleans Saints (8-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (2-8) (TNF - NFLN)
10.) San Francisco 49ers (6-4) @ Washington Redskins (3-7) (MNF - ESPN)
I call it "Upset Watch in the NFC" Sunday, as three NFC teams that are playoff teams if the playoffs started today (I believe the 49ers would be the #6 seed today) play three bad teams. Two have to go on the road in primetime, which is a great spot for a shock upset (Washington is probably more likely, but Atlanta might show a pulse this week).
9.) San Diego Chargers (4-6) @ Kansas City Chiefs (9-1) (1:00 - CBS)
8.) Tennessee Titans (4-6) @ Oakland Raiders (4-6) (4:05 - CBS)
7.) Pittsburgh Steelers (4-6) @ Cleveland Browns (4-6) (1:00 - CBS)
6.) New York Jets (5-5) @ Baltimore Ravens (4-6) (1:00 - CBS)
5.) Carolina Panthers (7-3) @ Miami Dolphins (5-5) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Don't You Love the Gang of 9!" Sunday, as 8 of the 9 members of the Gang play in games that could really help pare out some teams as we head towards December. The Bills (4-7) are the only team not playing, which is nice since they are the longest shot with their already 7 losses. Three are games featuring two of The Gang, and they are all somewhat interesting. The Chargers get to play the Chiefs for the first time in a must-win game and a huge trap game for the Chiefs. The Panthers get to take their six game win streak into Miami to play a team that quietly is right back in the playoff picture.
4.) Chicago Bears (6-4) @ St. Louis Rams (4-6) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "A Good Old Fashioned Game" Sunday, that is saved by the presence of two backups that have looked far better than anticipated. The Rams D-Line is a nice test of the Bears O-Line. The Bears definitely need this game more, and it will fun to watch their WRs go up against the Rams defense play after play.
3.) Indianapolis Colts (7-3) @ Arizona Cardinals (6-4) (4:05 - CBS)
I call it "The Best Inter-Conference Game Money Can Buy" Sunday, as Bruce Arians, a nice candidate for Coach of the Year, matches wits against the coach he replaced on an interim basis. The Colts can't afford a slow start in this one, as the Cardinals defense is far better than those that let the Colts off the hook. The Colts have to be up for this game, as the Cardinals have knocked off similar or better teams at home this season.
2.) Dallas Cowboys (5-5) @ New York Giants (4-6) (4:25 - FOX)
I call it "The First of Too Many Mediocre NFC East vs. NFC East Matchups" Sunday, as the Cowboys and Giants play a big game. If the Giants win, the NFC East is basically a beautiful three team race of mediocre teams. If the Cowboys win, we can almost pencil in that Week 17 game between the Eagles and Cowboys in Dallas as the game for the division. Fun game, really.
1.) Denver Broncos (9-1) @ New England Patriots (7-3) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "The War of 18/12" Sunday, as the league gets what they've gotten every year since 2013 (save for 2008 and 2011, where one of the two main players was gone - of course, the matchup still happened). Brady is 9-4 overall, but that is 4-3 for Manning since 2005. Also, in primetime, Manning is 4-1, winning in 2005, 2006, 2009 and in the 2006 AFC Championship. Also, the team with the better record entering the game has won each of the last five matchups. Should be awesome, as per usual.
