Washington Redskins (3-5) @ Minnesota Vikings (1-7) (WAS -1.5)
In my Excel-starring projection of the 2nd Half of the NFL season, I had the Vikings winning this game, and I still think they do. Home teams cover on Thursday Night two out of three times. It is just a massive advantage, especially when there is a considerable distance that the road team has to travel. I really don't have much in a way of a breakdown, but I like what I saw in the Vikings last week with Ponder. I think he's a stablizing presence after they dealt with Cassel and Freeman.
Redskins 20 Vikings 27 (MIN +1.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-8) @ Tennessee Titans (4-4) (TEN -13)
Like most Jaguars games this year, the spread is high enough to make it against any trend to bet against the Jaguars. Of course, they're 1-7 ATS (the win being the 26.5 point line against Denver). I'll continue to back the trend, but more and more evidence is showing that the 2013 Jaguars are one of the worst teams ever.
Jaguars 17 Titans 27 (JAX +13)
Philadelphia Eagles (4-5) @ Green Bay Packers (5-3) (PHI -1.5)
For most of the week, the line was off the board as Vegas had to figure out how to react to Rodgers injury. Well, what do you know? Everyone's overreacting to the injury. The Packers are still the home team. I mean, how many points is Rodgers worth? What would the line have been if Rodgers was healthy? I think this is an overreaction, and I can see the Packers team (who is getting Matthews and Jones back) rallying around Seneca Wallace for at least one week at home.
Eagles 23 Packers 27 (GB -1.5)
Buffalo Bills (3-6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6) (PIT -3)
It's pretty amazing that the Steelers have the worse record coming into this game. Obviously, since I picked them to go 12-4, I'm pretty stunned. I honestly bought into the Steelers mystique and overlooked that there are major, systemic problems with that organization right now. The Bills have a plan, I don't know if the Steelers do. I can see that crowd being a little slow in this game, leading to the healthy EJ Manuel being calm and not flustered. I've done a 180 on the Steelers, and while i picked them in my 2nd Half projections, I'm going against that now and picking the Bills to cover and win outright.
Bills 26 @ Steelers 23 (BUF +3)
Seattle Seahawks (8-1) @ Atlanta Falcons (2-6) (SEA -4.5)
This should have been an exciting game, a rematch of a thrilling divisional round game from a year ago, a litmus test for the Seahawks on the road. Instead, it is still a litmus test, but for the opposite reason. Despite winning four straight, there are concerns about the Seahawks, and those are founded. I just don't think the Falcons are a team that can take advantage of them. The Falcons can't run the ball and have a tough time getting pressure on the passer, the two easiest ways to control this Seattle team. Despite Roddy White returning, I just don't see the Falcons of having a good shot of covering this game.
Seahawks 27 Falcons 16 (SEA -4.5)
Oakland Raiders (3-5) @ New York Giants (2-6) (NYG -7.5)
This is a high line for the Giants, but let's remember what the Raiders are right now. They won't have McFadden, and their defense was putrid last week. It can't be that bad again on that side of the ball, but it doesn't need to be. The Giants had a week off, and the Raiders have to fly cross-country. It is a high line, and trusting a 2-6 team with that line isn't easy, but I think this is as safe a situation as that could ever be.
Raiders 21 Giants 31 (NYG -7.5)
St. Louis Rams (3-6) @ Indianapolis Colts (6-2) (IND -9.5)
This line, though, is way too high. The Colts haven't been able to blow out anyone but Jacksonville. Their last two games against less-than-great competition they've started slow and either lost or not covered. Kellen Clemens looks competent in the Rams offense, adn Zack Stacy should have a good game against a bad Colts rush defense. The Colts are good enough to still win the game despite all of these issues, but the Colts have a habit of playing down to their competition, and I can see that happening here.
Rams 19 Colts 27 (STL +9.5)
Cincinnati Bengals (6-3) @ Baltimore Ravens (3-5) (CIN -1.5)
Can the Ravens really lose four in a row? Can they really lose two straight road games? Can the Bengals throw the hammer down and eliminate the Ravens from the AFC North race? I'm happy the line is low, because it should be. This is a tough game for the Bengals. The Ravens defense has played well at home, and you have to figure that their run game might finally have a good game without needing to block for Geno Atkins. Still, I think the Bengals are just better and are good enough to win this game. Since covering allows a win by even less than a field goal, that is a safe cover bet.
Bengals 20 Ravens 16 (CIN -1.5)
Detroit Lions (5-3) @ Chicago Bears (5-3) (DET -1)
A lot of what I wrote about the Bengals @ Ravens game applies here, but the Bears are a lot better than the Ravens. Honestly, I don't know why the Lions are favored here. One advantage the Lions have here is they're playing off of a bye against a team coming off a MNF game. I don't know off hand, but that has to be an edge for Detroit. The Bears get Cutler back, but he may not be 100%, and this is the type of game where Bad Jay Cutler might show up. I hate picking so many road favorites to cover (this is the 3rd one), but I'll just hope for 2 out of 3.
Lions 27 Bears 24 (DET -1)
Houston Texans (2-6) @ Arizona Cardinals (5-4) (ARZ -3)
This line seems really low, as it implies that the Texans and Cardinals are even, and that cannot be true. The Cardinals are 2.5 games better, they are really good at home, their defense should dominate the Texans offense. The only problem is the Texans defense could do the same to the Cardinals offense, but all I need is a field goal win to cover. It makes sense that they should win this game. They are just better and the three points is great, great value.
Texans 13 Cardinals 23 (ARZ -3)
Carolina Panthers (5-3) @ San Francisco 49ers (6-2) (SF -6.5)
This might be the strangest line of the week. There is no way if this game was played today in Carolina the 49ers should be favored, as this line suggests. The Panthers defense is better than San Francisco's, even with Aldon Smith coming back. The 49ers O-Line hasn't been as dominant this year, and this is the first time since the first Seahawks game that the 49ers will have to throw the ball to win. I don;t think they will be able to. The greatest bit of pause I have is the 49ers are coming off of a bye, but in the Harbaugh era, the 49ers have mustered a soulless 20-10 win over Cleveland in 2011 and the tie against St. Louis after their byes.
Panthers 23 49ers 20 (CAR +6.5)
Denver Broncos (7-1) @ San Diego Chargers (4-4) (DEN -7)
The Broncos are coming off of a bye, where Peyton Manning should be more healed from his ankle injury (not that it effected him much against Washington), and the defensive guys that were back at half-mast against Washington (Woodyard, Ayers), should be back in full. The Broncos needed that break and I think they'll make good use of it. The Chargers are a good team, but they're coming off of a demoralizing OT loss, and that passing game has lost some of its effectiveness since the early part of this season. I like the Broncos chances to start a big 2nd half run now.
Broncos 34 Chargers 21 (DEN -7)
Dallas Cowboys (5-4) @ New Orleans Saints (6-2) (NO -7)
The line might be a little high, but what is going for Dallas here? Their defense has alternated between mediocre and awful. The Saints offense has been amazing at home, and they've won and covered their last 12 home games, which is kind of ridiculous. The Cowboys scored a big win in New Orleans in 2009, but that was a far better defensive Cowboys team. This Cowboys team just doesn't have the horses to do that.
Cowboys 23 Saints 35 (NO -7)
Miami Dolphins (4-4) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-8) (MIA -2.5)
I have nothing to say about this game. Both teams have issues. Both teams are breaking down before our eyes. I have no desire to watch this game, and barely any desire to pick it.
Dolphins 17 Buccaneers 20 (TB +2.5)
Enjoy the Games!!
In my Excel-starring projection of the 2nd Half of the NFL season, I had the Vikings winning this game, and I still think they do. Home teams cover on Thursday Night two out of three times. It is just a massive advantage, especially when there is a considerable distance that the road team has to travel. I really don't have much in a way of a breakdown, but I like what I saw in the Vikings last week with Ponder. I think he's a stablizing presence after they dealt with Cassel and Freeman.
Redskins 20 Vikings 27 (MIN +1.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-8) @ Tennessee Titans (4-4) (TEN -13)
Like most Jaguars games this year, the spread is high enough to make it against any trend to bet against the Jaguars. Of course, they're 1-7 ATS (the win being the 26.5 point line against Denver). I'll continue to back the trend, but more and more evidence is showing that the 2013 Jaguars are one of the worst teams ever.
Jaguars 17 Titans 27 (JAX +13)
Philadelphia Eagles (4-5) @ Green Bay Packers (5-3) (PHI -1.5)
For most of the week, the line was off the board as Vegas had to figure out how to react to Rodgers injury. Well, what do you know? Everyone's overreacting to the injury. The Packers are still the home team. I mean, how many points is Rodgers worth? What would the line have been if Rodgers was healthy? I think this is an overreaction, and I can see the Packers team (who is getting Matthews and Jones back) rallying around Seneca Wallace for at least one week at home.
Eagles 23 Packers 27 (GB -1.5)
Buffalo Bills (3-6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6) (PIT -3)
It's pretty amazing that the Steelers have the worse record coming into this game. Obviously, since I picked them to go 12-4, I'm pretty stunned. I honestly bought into the Steelers mystique and overlooked that there are major, systemic problems with that organization right now. The Bills have a plan, I don't know if the Steelers do. I can see that crowd being a little slow in this game, leading to the healthy EJ Manuel being calm and not flustered. I've done a 180 on the Steelers, and while i picked them in my 2nd Half projections, I'm going against that now and picking the Bills to cover and win outright.
Bills 26 @ Steelers 23 (BUF +3)
Seattle Seahawks (8-1) @ Atlanta Falcons (2-6) (SEA -4.5)
This should have been an exciting game, a rematch of a thrilling divisional round game from a year ago, a litmus test for the Seahawks on the road. Instead, it is still a litmus test, but for the opposite reason. Despite winning four straight, there are concerns about the Seahawks, and those are founded. I just don't think the Falcons are a team that can take advantage of them. The Falcons can't run the ball and have a tough time getting pressure on the passer, the two easiest ways to control this Seattle team. Despite Roddy White returning, I just don't see the Falcons of having a good shot of covering this game.
Seahawks 27 Falcons 16 (SEA -4.5)
Oakland Raiders (3-5) @ New York Giants (2-6) (NYG -7.5)
This is a high line for the Giants, but let's remember what the Raiders are right now. They won't have McFadden, and their defense was putrid last week. It can't be that bad again on that side of the ball, but it doesn't need to be. The Giants had a week off, and the Raiders have to fly cross-country. It is a high line, and trusting a 2-6 team with that line isn't easy, but I think this is as safe a situation as that could ever be.
Raiders 21 Giants 31 (NYG -7.5)
St. Louis Rams (3-6) @ Indianapolis Colts (6-2) (IND -9.5)
This line, though, is way too high. The Colts haven't been able to blow out anyone but Jacksonville. Their last two games against less-than-great competition they've started slow and either lost or not covered. Kellen Clemens looks competent in the Rams offense, adn Zack Stacy should have a good game against a bad Colts rush defense. The Colts are good enough to still win the game despite all of these issues, but the Colts have a habit of playing down to their competition, and I can see that happening here.
Rams 19 Colts 27 (STL +9.5)
Cincinnati Bengals (6-3) @ Baltimore Ravens (3-5) (CIN -1.5)
Can the Ravens really lose four in a row? Can they really lose two straight road games? Can the Bengals throw the hammer down and eliminate the Ravens from the AFC North race? I'm happy the line is low, because it should be. This is a tough game for the Bengals. The Ravens defense has played well at home, and you have to figure that their run game might finally have a good game without needing to block for Geno Atkins. Still, I think the Bengals are just better and are good enough to win this game. Since covering allows a win by even less than a field goal, that is a safe cover bet.
Bengals 20 Ravens 16 (CIN -1.5)
Detroit Lions (5-3) @ Chicago Bears (5-3) (DET -1)
A lot of what I wrote about the Bengals @ Ravens game applies here, but the Bears are a lot better than the Ravens. Honestly, I don't know why the Lions are favored here. One advantage the Lions have here is they're playing off of a bye against a team coming off a MNF game. I don't know off hand, but that has to be an edge for Detroit. The Bears get Cutler back, but he may not be 100%, and this is the type of game where Bad Jay Cutler might show up. I hate picking so many road favorites to cover (this is the 3rd one), but I'll just hope for 2 out of 3.
Lions 27 Bears 24 (DET -1)
Houston Texans (2-6) @ Arizona Cardinals (5-4) (ARZ -3)
This line seems really low, as it implies that the Texans and Cardinals are even, and that cannot be true. The Cardinals are 2.5 games better, they are really good at home, their defense should dominate the Texans offense. The only problem is the Texans defense could do the same to the Cardinals offense, but all I need is a field goal win to cover. It makes sense that they should win this game. They are just better and the three points is great, great value.
Texans 13 Cardinals 23 (ARZ -3)
Carolina Panthers (5-3) @ San Francisco 49ers (6-2) (SF -6.5)
This might be the strangest line of the week. There is no way if this game was played today in Carolina the 49ers should be favored, as this line suggests. The Panthers defense is better than San Francisco's, even with Aldon Smith coming back. The 49ers O-Line hasn't been as dominant this year, and this is the first time since the first Seahawks game that the 49ers will have to throw the ball to win. I don;t think they will be able to. The greatest bit of pause I have is the 49ers are coming off of a bye, but in the Harbaugh era, the 49ers have mustered a soulless 20-10 win over Cleveland in 2011 and the tie against St. Louis after their byes.
Panthers 23 49ers 20 (CAR +6.5)
Denver Broncos (7-1) @ San Diego Chargers (4-4) (DEN -7)
The Broncos are coming off of a bye, where Peyton Manning should be more healed from his ankle injury (not that it effected him much against Washington), and the defensive guys that were back at half-mast against Washington (Woodyard, Ayers), should be back in full. The Broncos needed that break and I think they'll make good use of it. The Chargers are a good team, but they're coming off of a demoralizing OT loss, and that passing game has lost some of its effectiveness since the early part of this season. I like the Broncos chances to start a big 2nd half run now.
Broncos 34 Chargers 21 (DEN -7)
Dallas Cowboys (5-4) @ New Orleans Saints (6-2) (NO -7)
The line might be a little high, but what is going for Dallas here? Their defense has alternated between mediocre and awful. The Saints offense has been amazing at home, and they've won and covered their last 12 home games, which is kind of ridiculous. The Cowboys scored a big win in New Orleans in 2009, but that was a far better defensive Cowboys team. This Cowboys team just doesn't have the horses to do that.
Cowboys 23 Saints 35 (NO -7)
Miami Dolphins (4-4) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-8) (MIA -2.5)
I have nothing to say about this game. Both teams have issues. Both teams are breaking down before our eyes. I have no desire to watch this game, and barely any desire to pick it.
Dolphins 17 Buccaneers 20 (TB +2.5)
Enjoy the Games!!
