Looking Back at Last Week's Picks
VIKINGS (+1.5) over Redskins (CORRECT = 1-0)
Jaguars (+13) over TITANS (CORRECT = 2-0)
PACKERS (-1.5) over Eagles (WRONG = 2-1)
Bills (+3) over STEELERS (WRONG = 2-2)
Seahawks (-4.5) over FALCONS (CORRECT = 3-2)
GIANTS (-7.5) over Raiders (WRONG = 3-3)
Rams (+9.5) over COLTS (CORRECT = 4-3)
Bengals (-1.5) over RAVENS (WRONG = 4-4)
Lions (-1) over BEARS (CORRECT = 5-4)
CARDINALS (-3) over Texans (PUSH = 5-4-1)
Panthers (+6.5) over 49ERS (CORRECT = 6-4-1)
Broncos (-7) over CHARGERS (CORRECT = 7-4-1)
SAINTS (-7) over Cowboys (CORRECT = 8-4-1)
BUCCANEERS (+2.5) over Dolphins (CORRECT = 9-4-1)
Week 10: 9-4-1
Year-to-Date: 84-61-2
Power Rankings
32.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8 = 111-295)
I'm happy they got a win, no team deserves to go 0-16. It worked out OK for the Lions, who three years later were in the playoffs and five years later are in great position to win their division, but who knows if Teddy Bridgewater is a Matthew Stafford type player. Anyway, the Jaguars got their win. Now they can go back to being a historically bad team.
31.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8 = 146-209)
I'm happy they got a win, no team deserves to go 0-16. Of course, it didn't work out OK for the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who wouldn't make the playoffs in back-to-back seasons for another 20 years. Also, the Buccaneers will probably still fire their coach and start all over again. However, they should go out and hire Lovie Smith, and do what the Chiefs are doing this year in 2014.
30.) Atlanta Falcons (2-7 = 186-251)
The Falcons were 9-0 through nine games last year. Now they're 2-7. I hate to do this, but what would the reaction be if the same fate happens to the Chiefs next year? Would it be shock? Surprise? I don't think it would be as surprising as what has happened to Atlanta. Julio Jones meant a lot to that team, but so did so many of their pieces on defense. Matt Ryan deserves better than this, but chances are this is a one-year lag, not a long-term swim in mediocrity, like what could easily happen in Pittsburgh.
29.) Oakland Raiders (3-6 = 166-223)
Ever since I, and so many other people, gave Terrelle Pryor so much love after a good game against Pittsburgh, with the Raiders at 3-4, Pryor has been bad, and the Raiders worse. Now, their defense played a lot better last week than it did against Philadelphia, but the offense isn't good enough yet. The future is bright with Oakland, as Pryor is still developing and Reggie McKenzie has a solid plan, but this is still a team devoid of a lot of talent.
28.) Minnesota Vikings (2-7 = 220-279)
That was a good win for Minnesota. They didn't blink when falling down 27-10, scoring the last 24 points of the game. Ponder is expected to play in Seattle, and that is great news, because he's actually been very competent since regaining the starting job against Green Bay three weeks ago. The Vikings have intriguing pieces on offense (I won't lie, I forgot they had Greg Jennings). The defense is still terrible, but they can play a huge role in deciding the fate of the NFC North.
27.) Washington Redskins (3-6 = 230-287)
As good as a win as that was for Minnesota, it was that bad a loss for Washington. They could have been tied in the loss column with the Eagles and Cowboys. Instead, they are tied with the Giants. Many people will point to the Redskins being 3-6 last year through 10 games and coming back to win the division, but winning 7 straight games to end a season from 3-6 is pretty much unprecedented. They won't need to go 10-6 to win the division, but even a 6-1 finish seems really unlikely with games against all of their NFC East foes still to come, and games against the 49ers and Chiefs.
26.) Houston Texans (2-7 = 170-248)
The Falcons are shocking, but the Texans being 2-7, especially after a 2-0 start, is equally, if not more, shocking. The weird part is the team is actually playing pretty well. Andre Johnson is having another stellar year. The defense is playing decently well, and JJ Watt has staved off natural regression better than anyone could imagine. What is different? They've been extremely unlucky in giving up defensive TDs, and their kicking has been awful. They could be a massive late season spoiler.
25.) Tennessee Titans (4-5 = 200-196)
The Titans will rue that loss. They have tiebreak wins over the Jets and Chargers, but that might not matter. Their schedule is tough coming up (Colts twice, Broncos still to come), and they can't just give away games to one of the worst teams ever. I feel bad for Jake Locker. At this point, he's basically proven injury-prone. I wish I could see him play a full season, but that may not ever happen. Still, I think he's easily the best of the three overdrafted QBs from the 2011 draft (Locker, Gabbert, Ponder).
24.) Buffalo Bills (3-7 = 199-259)
That was a terrible performance in Pittsburgh. I get it, Dick LeBeau's defense has been amazing against rookies. But this is the worst Dick LeBeau defense in eons. The Bills had a chance to stay somewhat relevant in the Wild Card race and just blew it with a lifeless performance. They have spoiler potential coming up, but I can't imagine them doing too much with games like that. I still like the Doug Marrone hiring long term, but this might be a bad finish to an otherwise good season.
23.) Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6 = 179-218)
The Steelers might fall into the trap of focusing on their good games and forgetting about the bad ones. Who are the real Steelers? The team that beat the Jets in New York 19-6, and beat the Bills 23-10, or the team that lost to a Matt Cassel-led Vikings team in London and were waxed by New England 55-31? I honestly think they're closer to the latter. The Steelers just don't have good enough personnel on defense, and I think that won't change until the leadership does. One thing I do know is that the answer is not trading away Ben Roethlisberger. This isn't baseball. One Great QB is worth more than two 1st-round picks.
22.) Miami Dolphins (4-5 = 193-209)
I'll credit the Dolphins for coming back after starting out miserably against Tampa Bay. That showed some ability to look past the ridiculous stuff going on in Miami right now. I don't want to comment on that situation, and because no one cares what I would say, I won't. The Dolphins, as a team, are still built well, but their O-Line is so bad, and Ryan Tannehill's pocket presence so equally bad, that it won't matter. They are still in the Wild Card hunt, but they need to turn this around, now.
21.) Cleveland Browns (4-5 = 172-197)
The Browns are somehow just a game back in the wild card race. I still can't imagine them getting there just because of their remaining schedule (4 road games, all against decent teams, if not better, home game against Chicago), but the Browns are definitely in the race. I don't know what this team is long term, because they still don't have a QB, and it never worked for Mike Lombardi before, but I'll give the man some credit. They've played well.
20.) Baltimore Ravens (4-5 = 188-189)
They overcame the Hail Mary going against them, and that takes a lot. They basically produced their only offensive drive of note since the 1st quarter in OT to steal the win. I really wanted them to lose just so Ravens' fans can come close to realizing what pain it was for Denver (and Manning) fans when the Ravens got their Hail Mary last year in the playoffs. That Ravens defense is really good, and if they do sneak into the playoffs, well, we've seen it before.
19.) St. Louis Rams (4-6 = 224-234)
Well, that was surprising. That was just shocking. That was the ideal Jeff Fisher game. Get some huge plays, play solid defense, not have to do too much on offense in terms of consistent drives, and just stop teams drive after drive. Jeff Fisher didn't get many chances to do that to the Colts in his tenure in Tennessee, but he took it all out on them. Nice to see Tavon Austin have a breakout game. He can be special, but they have to find ways to consistently get him the ball outside of playing the Colts defense.
18.) Dallas Cowboys (5-5 = 274-258)
The Cowboys just had one of the most embarrassing performances I have ever seen. Their defense was so unrepetently bad it goes beyond words. I can't imagine that defense holding up, with the ridiculous amount of injuries, but here they are, tied for 1st place in the division, with their 2nd game against the Eagles in Dallas. They have to throw Dez the ball more than twice. It honestly seemed like they just gave up.
17.) New York Giants (3-6 = 165-243)
Somehow, the Giants have a legitimate top-10 defense right now. The points allowed total doesn't match, mainly because of early season results, and special teams, and Eli pick-sixes, but the defense itself has been really good for a while now. The D-Line is slowly getting back to form, and the secondary has been really good for most of the season. Prince Amukamara is having a really nice season, and Antrel Rolle continues to quietly be one of the league's best safeties.
16.) Green Bay Packers (5-4 = 245-212)
This ranking is still going off the idea that Aaron Rodgers is not coming back until after the Thanksgiving Game in Detroit. Honestly, I'm more pessimistic than before, because unless the backup is going to be a long term good player, backups generally play well in their first start and then become worse as teams get more tape on those teams. The Packers didn't look that great against Philadelphia, and while their schedule is still easy coming up, they can't really afford to lose two more games, as they lose the tiebreaker to San Francisco (the current #6 seed).
15.) San Diego Chargers (4-5 = 212-202)
Well, the Chargers are still in it because no one is running away with that #6 seed, but they might have to win two of their remaining three games against the Chiefs and Broncos, which will be really hard. They have a chance to get a tiebreaker over Miami this week, but losses like Washington and Tennessee will keep this team out of the playoffs just like strange losses kept them out in 2010 and almost did in 2008, despite similarly good seasons by Philip Rivers.
14.) Philadelphia Eagles (5-5 = 252-244)
It's almost like the Eagles are somehow under the radar now. After they put up 10 points combined in two home game losses, people just assumed they were dead. Well, they are now tied for first place, with an easier schedule ahead than Dallas. Their division record is worse (as in 2-2 vs. 3-0), but all they really have to do is start being able to win home games. One last quibble, Nick Foles might be the Greatest QB EVARR!!, but he was terrible in the two-thirds of the game he played against Dallas.
13.) New York Jets (5-4 = 169-231)
That must have been a nice bye week for the Jets, who in not playing, gained sole possession of the #6 seed in the AFC. It is in their hands. It is right there for the taking. The Titans, who have a tiebreaker over them, lost. The Chargers lost. They have a chance to effectively end this themselves, since they have 5-loss Baltimore, Cleveland and Miami (twice) still on the schedule.
12.) Arizona Cardinals (5-4 = 187-198)
I said this three weeks ago, that the Cardinals have a quietly cushy schedule ahead of them, and could make a silent playoff push. They probably won't get there, since playing both Seattle and San Francisco in Weeks 16-17 is not a good recipe to make it, but how much fun would a Week 17 game between the 49ers and Cardinals in Arizona for the #6 seed. I really want that to happen. I'll give the Cardinals fans never-ending credit for continuing to be a really good home fanbase after the Warner era ended.
11.) Chicago Bears (5-4 = 259-247)
Tough loss in what was a really good game. Yes, Jay Cutler looked rusty, but I think it is unfair to criticize Marc Trestman for bringing him back too soon. First, it is totally hypocritical to do this since Cutler caught a stupid amount of shit for not coming back too soon in the NFC Championship Game three years ago. But mostly, because his new injury is a different one. They weren't related. And while he wasn't playing well, he wasn't exactly playing badly either. They just lost a hard-fought game to a good team. It happens.
10.) Indianapolis Colts (6-3 = 222-193)
Well, that was a disaster. If they lose on Thursday, this could be the real first time Irsay/Grigson/Pagano are questioned since the start of last season. I don't think they will, but the Colts had a shot at a bye, and they still do, but they can't fail to show up this often. Usually, they are able to keep it close enough and figure it out, but that never happened. I'm not afraid to say it: Andrew Luck is being overrated. He's a very good player. He's the 3rd best QB in the AFC based purely on play in 2013, but that says a lot more about the state of the AFC than it does about Luck. I'm fearful of Colts fans who I respect starting to use the same defenses Patriots fans used to use for Brady in defending and praising Luck. Luck will be great. I believe he could be a Top-3 QB legitimately by 2015. He's not there yet, and the team around him isn't good enough to make up for when he plays badly.
9.) Kansas City Chiefs (9-0 = 215-111)
Ryan Fitzpatrick. Terrelle Pryor. Case Keenum. Jason Campbell. Jeff Tuel. Those were the last five QBs the Kansas City Chiefs have faced. They won those games by 9, 17, 1, 6, 10. That period is over. The rest of the QBs go: Manning, Rivers, Manning, Griffin, Pryor, Luck, Rivers. Only one less than good QB in that bunch, and four elite ones. I think the Chiefs get slightly exposed. They're not a bad team, but they're not a 9-0 team either.
8.) Cincinnati Bengals (6-4 = 234-186)
Before people start freaking out about the Bengals, the last two losses were both against decent, desperate teams on the road and both in OT. The Bengals are still a good team, clearly the best in the AFC North when you look at their larger performance metrics. They should still win that division, and a win this weekend in Cleveland goes a long way to ending it. The Bengals problem, oddly, wasn't on defense without Atkins, but offense, but that offense plays well at home, and if they win all their remaining home games, they'll be fine. If the Patriots fall back a bit, they still have an outside shot at the #2 seed with the head-to-head win.
7.) San Francisco 49ers (6-3 = 227-155)
I don't want to make too much of one game, but Kaepernick looks totally lost. I never thought he was the most accurate thrower in coverage, and with a scheme that has been somewhat figured out, reducing confusion, and receivers who don't get separation as much, he has to throw in traffic. It isn't working. He's only crossed 200 yards once since his 412 yard performance in Week 1. That's unconscionable. The 49eres are starting to get their guys back, so there still could be life, but to me, they seem a little but like the Chiefs of the NFC, but a team with a more realistic record.
6.) Detroit Lions (6-3 = 238-216)
Big win. Huge win. Season defining win. It should be all of those things, and if the Lions play as well as they should, it will be all of those things. They have the league's easiest schedule going forward, with their toughest remaining game by record being at home, on a short week, against a team that could easily be starting its backup QB. The Lions, in all seriousness, could easily get the #1 seed. What has come of this world?
5.) New England Patriots (7-2 = 234-175)
The Patriots never looked good early. Were one first down away from losing to Buffalo in Week 1, and one stupid offensive series by New Orleans away from losing to the Saints, and while those bad performance might be a sign of a team that is worse than its record, it could also be a sign to the NFL that people should have taken advantage when they could. The most interesting thing for New England will be to see if their offense can carry on what they did against Pittsburgh, or was that a one-game mirage in a lifeless season, like their 59-0 thumping of Tennessee was in 2009.
4.) Carolina Panthers (6-3 = 214-115)
No matter what happens the rest of the season, Ron Rivera should be the long term coach for this team. He's got a team that is playing better defense than anyone else in the NFL, and that is with a still average secondary. He's learned from his 4th-down mistakes and is now as aggressive as anyone in the NFL. They have another statement game coming up, this time at home. It can really go one of two ways. It can be like an infamous Patriots MNF game around this time of the year in 2009, when the Saints had their National Coronation in a 38-17 win, or it can be like what happened to Houston in what was supposed to be their National coming out party in last year on MNF in Foxboro. I have a bad feeling the Panthers might be a little too pumped in this game at home.
3.) New Orleans Saints (7-2 = 265-163)
Drew Brees had put up great stats in their home games so far, but that was the first time the Saints offense really resembled what they were at home in 2011, when they average 40+ points and nearly 450 yards in their home games. 60 first downs is absurd. 242 yards rushing when you also throw for 380 is absurd. The defense holding Dallas, in that same game, to under 200 yards is more absurd. That might have been the single best performance this year. The problem for New Orleans is they haven't been nearly as good on the road, and they'll most likely have to win a certain game on the road to avoid having to win games on the road in the playoffs.
2.) Seattle Seahawks (9-1 = 265-159)
The Seahawks finally came out and put the hammer down after a few questionable performances against St. Louis and Tampa Bay. In a way, why was anyone surprised? Despite Atlanta's record and position this year, that was a revenge game for Seattle after they lost in Atlanta in the playoffs last year. The Seahawks are getting Sidney Rice back, and I think there are two big goals for them in the rest of the regular season: 1 - lock down home field; 2 - get Sidney Rice acclimated to this offense.
1.) Denver Broncos (8-1 = 371-238)
These three weeks will define the Broncos season (unless Peyton Manning wants to win a Super Bowl in the most un-Manning way and win some road playoff games), so of course this is when Manning's health will be at its most questionable. I honestly think Manning is overplaying this. He won't tell the media that he's getting an MRI if it was serious. He looked fine against San Diego, and if not for some drops, they tack on some more points in the 2nd half. His deep throws also looked like they had more life against San Diego than they did before. The best news for Denver, though, was that their defense continues to get better each week and resemble the dynamic unit they had last year. Quietly, Shaun Phillips has replaced Elvis Dumervil rather well.
Playoff Projections
AFC
1.) Denver Broncos (14-2)
2.) New England Patriots (12-4)
3.) Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)
4.) Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
5.) Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)
6.) New York Jets (9-7)
NFC
1.) Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
2.) Carolina Panthers (12-4)
3.) Detroit Lions (12-4)
4.) Philadelphia Eagles (9-7)
5.) San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
6.) New Orleans Saints (11-5)
Looking Forward to Next Weeks Games
Byes: Dallas (5-5), St. louis (4-6)
14.) Atlanta Falcons (2-7) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8) (1:00 - FOX)
13.) Arizona Cardinals (5-4) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) (1:00 - FOX)
12.) Oakland Raiders (3-6) @ Houston Texans (2-7) (1:00 - CBS)
11.) Minnesota Vikings (2-7) @ Seattle Seahawks (9-1) (4:25 - FOX)
I call it the "There's still some bad games in a good weekend" Sunday, as these four games are the ones every can just look past. Luckily, none of them will be broadcast in the NYC & Philly TV markets, which makes me happy. None of them have any real storylines, unless the Cardinals/Jaguars game gets close, as the Cardinals are the only real bubble-team in this mix.
10.) Green Bay Packers (5-4) @ New York Giants (3-6) (4:25 - FOX)
9.) Detroit Lions (6-3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Can My Preseason Black Marks Make Me Happy" Sunday, as the 3-6 Giants and 3-6 Steelers, two teams I predicted to go 12-4 before the season, try to continue to claw out of their early season terribleness and save their seasons. The Steelers are only two games back of the Jets (and they beat the Jets), and the Giants are only one game back in the loss column of Philly and Dallas. The Packers will also try to keep pace with the Lions, or maybe tie them up if the Lions lose early.
8.) New York Jets (5-4) @ Buffalo Bills (3-7) (1:00 - CBS)
7.) Washington Redskins (3-6) @ Philadelphia Eagles (5-5) (1:00 - FOX)
6.) Indianapolis Colts (6-3) @ Tennessee Titans (4-5) (TNF - NFLN)
5.) Cleveland Browns (4-5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (6-4) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "The Underrated Division Rivalry" Sunday, as these are four division games that all have some interesting playoff implications, but are overshadowed by the four go come. The most interesting is Browns @ Bengals, as the Browns can essentially take the lead on Cincinnati with a win (season sweep). The Titans can also close the game. The Redskins can also tie the Eagles in the loss column, but let's be real, I hate that NFC East race, and finally, the Jets can basically eliminate the Bills and can get a huge win to stay in pole position for the #6 seed.
4.) San Diego Chargers (4-5) @ Miami Dolphins (4-5) (4:05 - CBS)
I call it "Bubble-Watch" Sunday, as the Chargers and Dolphins, both with five losses, get to fight to claim the spot as the likeliest team to overtake the Jets. The Chargers need this game more, considering the Dolphins still get to play the Jets twice head-to-head. This is also the Dolphins first home game after all that madness started in full.
3.) San Francisco 49ers (6-3) @ New Orleans Saints (7-2) (4:25 - FOX)
I call it "Can Anyone Kill the Saints at Home Myth?" Sunday, as the 49ers return to the place of Colin Kaepernick's first real triumph (locking down the starting job in a 31-21 win over New Orleans last year), and his lowest moment (Super Bowl loss). The Saints have been untouchable at home (ironically, the Falcons are the only team that came close to beating them there), but the 49ers are a team good enough to give the Saints a load of problems at home.
2.) New England Patriots (7-2) @ Carolina Panthers (6-3) (MNF - ESPN)
I call it "Finally a Good MNF Game" Monday, as ESPN gets their money's worth. Actually, ESPN is getting their money's worth for most of the rest of the season, but it starts here. After Tirico & Gruden having to pump up shitty games, they get a great one. The #2 team in the AFC vs. the hottest team in the NFL. Can it get better?
1.) Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) @ Denver Broncos (8-1) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "Big Game, but the Game 2 Weeks Fromm Now is Bigger" Sunday, and yes, this is better. The Chiefs get their first real test since early in the season. The Broncos get a chance to make up for their SNF loss to the Colts and regain control of the division. Of course, everyone should remember that the return leg in Arrowhead is in just two weeks, and whoever wins this game could give their edge right back in two weeks.
VIKINGS (+1.5) over Redskins (CORRECT = 1-0)
Jaguars (+13) over TITANS (CORRECT = 2-0)
PACKERS (-1.5) over Eagles (WRONG = 2-1)
Bills (+3) over STEELERS (WRONG = 2-2)
Seahawks (-4.5) over FALCONS (CORRECT = 3-2)
GIANTS (-7.5) over Raiders (WRONG = 3-3)
Rams (+9.5) over COLTS (CORRECT = 4-3)
Bengals (-1.5) over RAVENS (WRONG = 4-4)
Lions (-1) over BEARS (CORRECT = 5-4)
CARDINALS (-3) over Texans (PUSH = 5-4-1)
Panthers (+6.5) over 49ERS (CORRECT = 6-4-1)
Broncos (-7) over CHARGERS (CORRECT = 7-4-1)
SAINTS (-7) over Cowboys (CORRECT = 8-4-1)
BUCCANEERS (+2.5) over Dolphins (CORRECT = 9-4-1)
Week 10: 9-4-1
Year-to-Date: 84-61-2
Power Rankings
32.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8 = 111-295)
I'm happy they got a win, no team deserves to go 0-16. It worked out OK for the Lions, who three years later were in the playoffs and five years later are in great position to win their division, but who knows if Teddy Bridgewater is a Matthew Stafford type player. Anyway, the Jaguars got their win. Now they can go back to being a historically bad team.
31.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8 = 146-209)
I'm happy they got a win, no team deserves to go 0-16. Of course, it didn't work out OK for the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who wouldn't make the playoffs in back-to-back seasons for another 20 years. Also, the Buccaneers will probably still fire their coach and start all over again. However, they should go out and hire Lovie Smith, and do what the Chiefs are doing this year in 2014.
30.) Atlanta Falcons (2-7 = 186-251)
The Falcons were 9-0 through nine games last year. Now they're 2-7. I hate to do this, but what would the reaction be if the same fate happens to the Chiefs next year? Would it be shock? Surprise? I don't think it would be as surprising as what has happened to Atlanta. Julio Jones meant a lot to that team, but so did so many of their pieces on defense. Matt Ryan deserves better than this, but chances are this is a one-year lag, not a long-term swim in mediocrity, like what could easily happen in Pittsburgh.
29.) Oakland Raiders (3-6 = 166-223)
Ever since I, and so many other people, gave Terrelle Pryor so much love after a good game against Pittsburgh, with the Raiders at 3-4, Pryor has been bad, and the Raiders worse. Now, their defense played a lot better last week than it did against Philadelphia, but the offense isn't good enough yet. The future is bright with Oakland, as Pryor is still developing and Reggie McKenzie has a solid plan, but this is still a team devoid of a lot of talent.
28.) Minnesota Vikings (2-7 = 220-279)
That was a good win for Minnesota. They didn't blink when falling down 27-10, scoring the last 24 points of the game. Ponder is expected to play in Seattle, and that is great news, because he's actually been very competent since regaining the starting job against Green Bay three weeks ago. The Vikings have intriguing pieces on offense (I won't lie, I forgot they had Greg Jennings). The defense is still terrible, but they can play a huge role in deciding the fate of the NFC North.
27.) Washington Redskins (3-6 = 230-287)
As good as a win as that was for Minnesota, it was that bad a loss for Washington. They could have been tied in the loss column with the Eagles and Cowboys. Instead, they are tied with the Giants. Many people will point to the Redskins being 3-6 last year through 10 games and coming back to win the division, but winning 7 straight games to end a season from 3-6 is pretty much unprecedented. They won't need to go 10-6 to win the division, but even a 6-1 finish seems really unlikely with games against all of their NFC East foes still to come, and games against the 49ers and Chiefs.
26.) Houston Texans (2-7 = 170-248)
The Falcons are shocking, but the Texans being 2-7, especially after a 2-0 start, is equally, if not more, shocking. The weird part is the team is actually playing pretty well. Andre Johnson is having another stellar year. The defense is playing decently well, and JJ Watt has staved off natural regression better than anyone could imagine. What is different? They've been extremely unlucky in giving up defensive TDs, and their kicking has been awful. They could be a massive late season spoiler.
25.) Tennessee Titans (4-5 = 200-196)
The Titans will rue that loss. They have tiebreak wins over the Jets and Chargers, but that might not matter. Their schedule is tough coming up (Colts twice, Broncos still to come), and they can't just give away games to one of the worst teams ever. I feel bad for Jake Locker. At this point, he's basically proven injury-prone. I wish I could see him play a full season, but that may not ever happen. Still, I think he's easily the best of the three overdrafted QBs from the 2011 draft (Locker, Gabbert, Ponder).
24.) Buffalo Bills (3-7 = 199-259)
That was a terrible performance in Pittsburgh. I get it, Dick LeBeau's defense has been amazing against rookies. But this is the worst Dick LeBeau defense in eons. The Bills had a chance to stay somewhat relevant in the Wild Card race and just blew it with a lifeless performance. They have spoiler potential coming up, but I can't imagine them doing too much with games like that. I still like the Doug Marrone hiring long term, but this might be a bad finish to an otherwise good season.
23.) Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6 = 179-218)
The Steelers might fall into the trap of focusing on their good games and forgetting about the bad ones. Who are the real Steelers? The team that beat the Jets in New York 19-6, and beat the Bills 23-10, or the team that lost to a Matt Cassel-led Vikings team in London and were waxed by New England 55-31? I honestly think they're closer to the latter. The Steelers just don't have good enough personnel on defense, and I think that won't change until the leadership does. One thing I do know is that the answer is not trading away Ben Roethlisberger. This isn't baseball. One Great QB is worth more than two 1st-round picks.
22.) Miami Dolphins (4-5 = 193-209)
I'll credit the Dolphins for coming back after starting out miserably against Tampa Bay. That showed some ability to look past the ridiculous stuff going on in Miami right now. I don't want to comment on that situation, and because no one cares what I would say, I won't. The Dolphins, as a team, are still built well, but their O-Line is so bad, and Ryan Tannehill's pocket presence so equally bad, that it won't matter. They are still in the Wild Card hunt, but they need to turn this around, now.
21.) Cleveland Browns (4-5 = 172-197)
The Browns are somehow just a game back in the wild card race. I still can't imagine them getting there just because of their remaining schedule (4 road games, all against decent teams, if not better, home game against Chicago), but the Browns are definitely in the race. I don't know what this team is long term, because they still don't have a QB, and it never worked for Mike Lombardi before, but I'll give the man some credit. They've played well.
20.) Baltimore Ravens (4-5 = 188-189)
They overcame the Hail Mary going against them, and that takes a lot. They basically produced their only offensive drive of note since the 1st quarter in OT to steal the win. I really wanted them to lose just so Ravens' fans can come close to realizing what pain it was for Denver (and Manning) fans when the Ravens got their Hail Mary last year in the playoffs. That Ravens defense is really good, and if they do sneak into the playoffs, well, we've seen it before.
19.) St. Louis Rams (4-6 = 224-234)
Well, that was surprising. That was just shocking. That was the ideal Jeff Fisher game. Get some huge plays, play solid defense, not have to do too much on offense in terms of consistent drives, and just stop teams drive after drive. Jeff Fisher didn't get many chances to do that to the Colts in his tenure in Tennessee, but he took it all out on them. Nice to see Tavon Austin have a breakout game. He can be special, but they have to find ways to consistently get him the ball outside of playing the Colts defense.
18.) Dallas Cowboys (5-5 = 274-258)
The Cowboys just had one of the most embarrassing performances I have ever seen. Their defense was so unrepetently bad it goes beyond words. I can't imagine that defense holding up, with the ridiculous amount of injuries, but here they are, tied for 1st place in the division, with their 2nd game against the Eagles in Dallas. They have to throw Dez the ball more than twice. It honestly seemed like they just gave up.
17.) New York Giants (3-6 = 165-243)
Somehow, the Giants have a legitimate top-10 defense right now. The points allowed total doesn't match, mainly because of early season results, and special teams, and Eli pick-sixes, but the defense itself has been really good for a while now. The D-Line is slowly getting back to form, and the secondary has been really good for most of the season. Prince Amukamara is having a really nice season, and Antrel Rolle continues to quietly be one of the league's best safeties.
16.) Green Bay Packers (5-4 = 245-212)
This ranking is still going off the idea that Aaron Rodgers is not coming back until after the Thanksgiving Game in Detroit. Honestly, I'm more pessimistic than before, because unless the backup is going to be a long term good player, backups generally play well in their first start and then become worse as teams get more tape on those teams. The Packers didn't look that great against Philadelphia, and while their schedule is still easy coming up, they can't really afford to lose two more games, as they lose the tiebreaker to San Francisco (the current #6 seed).
15.) San Diego Chargers (4-5 = 212-202)
Well, the Chargers are still in it because no one is running away with that #6 seed, but they might have to win two of their remaining three games against the Chiefs and Broncos, which will be really hard. They have a chance to get a tiebreaker over Miami this week, but losses like Washington and Tennessee will keep this team out of the playoffs just like strange losses kept them out in 2010 and almost did in 2008, despite similarly good seasons by Philip Rivers.
14.) Philadelphia Eagles (5-5 = 252-244)
It's almost like the Eagles are somehow under the radar now. After they put up 10 points combined in two home game losses, people just assumed they were dead. Well, they are now tied for first place, with an easier schedule ahead than Dallas. Their division record is worse (as in 2-2 vs. 3-0), but all they really have to do is start being able to win home games. One last quibble, Nick Foles might be the Greatest QB EVARR!!, but he was terrible in the two-thirds of the game he played against Dallas.
13.) New York Jets (5-4 = 169-231)
That must have been a nice bye week for the Jets, who in not playing, gained sole possession of the #6 seed in the AFC. It is in their hands. It is right there for the taking. The Titans, who have a tiebreaker over them, lost. The Chargers lost. They have a chance to effectively end this themselves, since they have 5-loss Baltimore, Cleveland and Miami (twice) still on the schedule.
12.) Arizona Cardinals (5-4 = 187-198)
I said this three weeks ago, that the Cardinals have a quietly cushy schedule ahead of them, and could make a silent playoff push. They probably won't get there, since playing both Seattle and San Francisco in Weeks 16-17 is not a good recipe to make it, but how much fun would a Week 17 game between the 49ers and Cardinals in Arizona for the #6 seed. I really want that to happen. I'll give the Cardinals fans never-ending credit for continuing to be a really good home fanbase after the Warner era ended.
11.) Chicago Bears (5-4 = 259-247)
Tough loss in what was a really good game. Yes, Jay Cutler looked rusty, but I think it is unfair to criticize Marc Trestman for bringing him back too soon. First, it is totally hypocritical to do this since Cutler caught a stupid amount of shit for not coming back too soon in the NFC Championship Game three years ago. But mostly, because his new injury is a different one. They weren't related. And while he wasn't playing well, he wasn't exactly playing badly either. They just lost a hard-fought game to a good team. It happens.
10.) Indianapolis Colts (6-3 = 222-193)
Well, that was a disaster. If they lose on Thursday, this could be the real first time Irsay/Grigson/Pagano are questioned since the start of last season. I don't think they will, but the Colts had a shot at a bye, and they still do, but they can't fail to show up this often. Usually, they are able to keep it close enough and figure it out, but that never happened. I'm not afraid to say it: Andrew Luck is being overrated. He's a very good player. He's the 3rd best QB in the AFC based purely on play in 2013, but that says a lot more about the state of the AFC than it does about Luck. I'm fearful of Colts fans who I respect starting to use the same defenses Patriots fans used to use for Brady in defending and praising Luck. Luck will be great. I believe he could be a Top-3 QB legitimately by 2015. He's not there yet, and the team around him isn't good enough to make up for when he plays badly.
9.) Kansas City Chiefs (9-0 = 215-111)
Ryan Fitzpatrick. Terrelle Pryor. Case Keenum. Jason Campbell. Jeff Tuel. Those were the last five QBs the Kansas City Chiefs have faced. They won those games by 9, 17, 1, 6, 10. That period is over. The rest of the QBs go: Manning, Rivers, Manning, Griffin, Pryor, Luck, Rivers. Only one less than good QB in that bunch, and four elite ones. I think the Chiefs get slightly exposed. They're not a bad team, but they're not a 9-0 team either.
8.) Cincinnati Bengals (6-4 = 234-186)
Before people start freaking out about the Bengals, the last two losses were both against decent, desperate teams on the road and both in OT. The Bengals are still a good team, clearly the best in the AFC North when you look at their larger performance metrics. They should still win that division, and a win this weekend in Cleveland goes a long way to ending it. The Bengals problem, oddly, wasn't on defense without Atkins, but offense, but that offense plays well at home, and if they win all their remaining home games, they'll be fine. If the Patriots fall back a bit, they still have an outside shot at the #2 seed with the head-to-head win.
7.) San Francisco 49ers (6-3 = 227-155)
I don't want to make too much of one game, but Kaepernick looks totally lost. I never thought he was the most accurate thrower in coverage, and with a scheme that has been somewhat figured out, reducing confusion, and receivers who don't get separation as much, he has to throw in traffic. It isn't working. He's only crossed 200 yards once since his 412 yard performance in Week 1. That's unconscionable. The 49eres are starting to get their guys back, so there still could be life, but to me, they seem a little but like the Chiefs of the NFC, but a team with a more realistic record.
6.) Detroit Lions (6-3 = 238-216)
Big win. Huge win. Season defining win. It should be all of those things, and if the Lions play as well as they should, it will be all of those things. They have the league's easiest schedule going forward, with their toughest remaining game by record being at home, on a short week, against a team that could easily be starting its backup QB. The Lions, in all seriousness, could easily get the #1 seed. What has come of this world?
5.) New England Patriots (7-2 = 234-175)
The Patriots never looked good early. Were one first down away from losing to Buffalo in Week 1, and one stupid offensive series by New Orleans away from losing to the Saints, and while those bad performance might be a sign of a team that is worse than its record, it could also be a sign to the NFL that people should have taken advantage when they could. The most interesting thing for New England will be to see if their offense can carry on what they did against Pittsburgh, or was that a one-game mirage in a lifeless season, like their 59-0 thumping of Tennessee was in 2009.
4.) Carolina Panthers (6-3 = 214-115)
No matter what happens the rest of the season, Ron Rivera should be the long term coach for this team. He's got a team that is playing better defense than anyone else in the NFL, and that is with a still average secondary. He's learned from his 4th-down mistakes and is now as aggressive as anyone in the NFL. They have another statement game coming up, this time at home. It can really go one of two ways. It can be like an infamous Patriots MNF game around this time of the year in 2009, when the Saints had their National Coronation in a 38-17 win, or it can be like what happened to Houston in what was supposed to be their National coming out party in last year on MNF in Foxboro. I have a bad feeling the Panthers might be a little too pumped in this game at home.
3.) New Orleans Saints (7-2 = 265-163)
Drew Brees had put up great stats in their home games so far, but that was the first time the Saints offense really resembled what they were at home in 2011, when they average 40+ points and nearly 450 yards in their home games. 60 first downs is absurd. 242 yards rushing when you also throw for 380 is absurd. The defense holding Dallas, in that same game, to under 200 yards is more absurd. That might have been the single best performance this year. The problem for New Orleans is they haven't been nearly as good on the road, and they'll most likely have to win a certain game on the road to avoid having to win games on the road in the playoffs.
2.) Seattle Seahawks (9-1 = 265-159)
The Seahawks finally came out and put the hammer down after a few questionable performances against St. Louis and Tampa Bay. In a way, why was anyone surprised? Despite Atlanta's record and position this year, that was a revenge game for Seattle after they lost in Atlanta in the playoffs last year. The Seahawks are getting Sidney Rice back, and I think there are two big goals for them in the rest of the regular season: 1 - lock down home field; 2 - get Sidney Rice acclimated to this offense.
1.) Denver Broncos (8-1 = 371-238)
These three weeks will define the Broncos season (unless Peyton Manning wants to win a Super Bowl in the most un-Manning way and win some road playoff games), so of course this is when Manning's health will be at its most questionable. I honestly think Manning is overplaying this. He won't tell the media that he's getting an MRI if it was serious. He looked fine against San Diego, and if not for some drops, they tack on some more points in the 2nd half. His deep throws also looked like they had more life against San Diego than they did before. The best news for Denver, though, was that their defense continues to get better each week and resemble the dynamic unit they had last year. Quietly, Shaun Phillips has replaced Elvis Dumervil rather well.
Playoff Projections
AFC
1.) Denver Broncos (14-2)
2.) New England Patriots (12-4)
3.) Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)
4.) Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
5.) Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)
6.) New York Jets (9-7)
NFC
1.) Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
2.) Carolina Panthers (12-4)
3.) Detroit Lions (12-4)
4.) Philadelphia Eagles (9-7)
5.) San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
6.) New Orleans Saints (11-5)
Looking Forward to Next Weeks Games
Byes: Dallas (5-5), St. louis (4-6)
14.) Atlanta Falcons (2-7) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8) (1:00 - FOX)
13.) Arizona Cardinals (5-4) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) (1:00 - FOX)
12.) Oakland Raiders (3-6) @ Houston Texans (2-7) (1:00 - CBS)
11.) Minnesota Vikings (2-7) @ Seattle Seahawks (9-1) (4:25 - FOX)
I call it the "There's still some bad games in a good weekend" Sunday, as these four games are the ones every can just look past. Luckily, none of them will be broadcast in the NYC & Philly TV markets, which makes me happy. None of them have any real storylines, unless the Cardinals/Jaguars game gets close, as the Cardinals are the only real bubble-team in this mix.
10.) Green Bay Packers (5-4) @ New York Giants (3-6) (4:25 - FOX)
9.) Detroit Lions (6-3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Can My Preseason Black Marks Make Me Happy" Sunday, as the 3-6 Giants and 3-6 Steelers, two teams I predicted to go 12-4 before the season, try to continue to claw out of their early season terribleness and save their seasons. The Steelers are only two games back of the Jets (and they beat the Jets), and the Giants are only one game back in the loss column of Philly and Dallas. The Packers will also try to keep pace with the Lions, or maybe tie them up if the Lions lose early.
8.) New York Jets (5-4) @ Buffalo Bills (3-7) (1:00 - CBS)
7.) Washington Redskins (3-6) @ Philadelphia Eagles (5-5) (1:00 - FOX)
6.) Indianapolis Colts (6-3) @ Tennessee Titans (4-5) (TNF - NFLN)
5.) Cleveland Browns (4-5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (6-4) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "The Underrated Division Rivalry" Sunday, as these are four division games that all have some interesting playoff implications, but are overshadowed by the four go come. The most interesting is Browns @ Bengals, as the Browns can essentially take the lead on Cincinnati with a win (season sweep). The Titans can also close the game. The Redskins can also tie the Eagles in the loss column, but let's be real, I hate that NFC East race, and finally, the Jets can basically eliminate the Bills and can get a huge win to stay in pole position for the #6 seed.
4.) San Diego Chargers (4-5) @ Miami Dolphins (4-5) (4:05 - CBS)
I call it "Bubble-Watch" Sunday, as the Chargers and Dolphins, both with five losses, get to fight to claim the spot as the likeliest team to overtake the Jets. The Chargers need this game more, considering the Dolphins still get to play the Jets twice head-to-head. This is also the Dolphins first home game after all that madness started in full.
3.) San Francisco 49ers (6-3) @ New Orleans Saints (7-2) (4:25 - FOX)
I call it "Can Anyone Kill the Saints at Home Myth?" Sunday, as the 49ers return to the place of Colin Kaepernick's first real triumph (locking down the starting job in a 31-21 win over New Orleans last year), and his lowest moment (Super Bowl loss). The Saints have been untouchable at home (ironically, the Falcons are the only team that came close to beating them there), but the 49ers are a team good enough to give the Saints a load of problems at home.
2.) New England Patriots (7-2) @ Carolina Panthers (6-3) (MNF - ESPN)
I call it "Finally a Good MNF Game" Monday, as ESPN gets their money's worth. Actually, ESPN is getting their money's worth for most of the rest of the season, but it starts here. After Tirico & Gruden having to pump up shitty games, they get a great one. The #2 team in the AFC vs. the hottest team in the NFL. Can it get better?
1.) Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) @ Denver Broncos (8-1) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "Big Game, but the Game 2 Weeks Fromm Now is Bigger" Sunday, and yes, this is better. The Chiefs get their first real test since early in the season. The Broncos get a chance to make up for their SNF loss to the Colts and regain control of the division. Of course, everyone should remember that the return leg in Arrowhead is in just two weeks, and whoever wins this game could give their edge right back in two weeks.
