Week 10: 9-4-1
Year-to-Date: 84-61-2
This will be a quicker version than normal, so let's go:
Indianapolis Colts (6-3) @ Tennessee Titans (4-5) (IND -3)
The Colts can't possibly be that bad again. They have a tendency to play down to mediocre teams, but I have to think the Colts will respond to being embarrased at home. The Titans don't really match up well with the Colts either, with an average run defense and no one that can really cover Coby Fleener. Anyway, this is good value for an Indianapolis team that is far better than the one that presented itself on Sunday.
Colts 27 Titans 17 (IND -3)
Oakland Raiders (3-6) @ Houston Texans (2-7) (HOU -9)
Mike McGloin is expected to start, which cannot possibly go well against a team that still has a bunch of talent defensively. JJ Watt is having another dominant season, and he should absolutely abuse the soft interior of the Raiders o-line. I can see the Raiders defense having a bad game, playing down to an average offense. The Texans are far better than their record, and this line proves that.
Raiders 13 Texans 27 (HOU -9)
Arizona Cardinals (5-4) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) (ARZ -9)
This line seems high, but I can't see the Jaguars really doing anything offensively against one of the league's best defenses. Bruce Arians had a habit of playing bad teams way too close, which gives me pause about them covering nine points, and I like way too many favorites this week overall. Some of the underdogs have to cover, right? Why not pick one of those against a team favored by more than ever on the road.
Cardinals 23 Jaguars 17 (JAX +9)
Atlanta Falcons (2-7) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8) (ATL -1)
There is some support for the Buccaneers in this game, off of their first win, but I really don't see it. The Buccaneers did win their first game, but that was against a team in total disarray, and they blew a 15-0 lead in that game before recovering last minute to win. The Falcons are also more talented than their record, and this is a perfect situation to pick up a win with a tough remaining schedule to come.
Falcons 27 Buccaneers 23 (ATL -1)
Cleveland Browns (4-5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (6-4) (CIN -6.5)
High line, considering the Browns won their first matchup against the Bengals 17-6 in Cleveland. The Bengals are undefeated at home, and have covered all four games. They are just a much better team at home, especially defensively, and they have the good linebackers and tacklers to stop the Browns short passing game with Jason Campbell.
Browns 13 Bengals 23 (CIN -6.5)
New York Jets (5-4) @ Buffalo Bills (3-7) (NYJ -2)
I hate that I like basically all the favorites. It burns me terribly to keep picking them, but I just have to. The Jets defense is good enough to stop this Bills offense that has looked a little lifeless since EJ Manuel's first injury. Steve Johnson is out against the Jets, and their rush defense should neutralize Jackson/Spiller. The Jets are just a better team, and off of a bye I would have to think their offense should have some nice plays against Buffalo.
Jets 20 Bills 13 (NYJ -2)
Detroit Lions (6-3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6) (DET -3)
If the Lions really want to win the division, and compete potentially for the #2 seed, they have to win these winnable games, and there are a lot of them left. A lot of people don't expect the Lions to win a game like this because, well, they are the Lions. I'm sure their fans are completely skeptical, but last week they went on the road against a better team and won. This is a new Lions team, and this is a new, worse than in years, Steelers team.
Lions 30 Steelers 20 (DET -3)
Washington Redskins (3-6) @ Philadelphia Eagles (5-5) (PHI -4)
Hey look! I'm going to pick an underdog to win outright. The Redskins are coming off a TNF game, and teams cover a lot after playing on Thursday Night, with the extra days to prepare. The Eagles are getting a little too much love right now, and the Eagles are 0-5 at home this season. I would love to see the Redskins win and tighten this ridiculous NFC East race even further.
Redskins 31 Eagles 27 (WAS +4)
Baltimore Ravens (4-5) @ Chicago Bears (5-4) (CHI -3)
I'm doing it again!! This is too much!! The Ravens are playing a backup QB and they are playing damn good defense ever since the Manning 7-TD game in Week 1. The Bears could get by with Josh McCown against the Packers, but the Ravens defense is a bigger story. The Ravens might also get their run game going a little bit against one of the worst run defenses in the league. I can also see an emotional letdown for the Bears after losing last week's tough game to Detroit.
Ravens 23 Bears 20 (BAL +3)
San Diego Chargers (4-5) @ Miami Dolphins (4-5) (SD -2.5)
This is a tough spot for the Chargers, but a crucial one. After blowing the Redskins game, and losing at home to Denver, the Chargers are back in a tough spot, and have a game at Arrowhead next week. They need this game. The Dolphins can survive even with a loss here with two games left against the Jets. The Dolphins are still in disarray a bit, but that is obviously being factored into the line. With the line less than a field goal, there is still some good value with the Chargers.
Chargers 27 Dolphins 24 (SD -2.5)
Minnesota Vikings (2-7) @ Seattle Seahawks (9-1) (SEA -12.5)
This line is high, and I've gone with the underdog covering all double digit lines, and I'm not stopping now, especially for a Seahawks team that hasn't been great against the run against a team they might overlook, just like they did against Tampa Bay two years.
Vikings 20 Seahawks 31 (MIN +12.5)
Green Bay Packers (5-4) @ New York Giants (3-6) (NYG -4.5)
Scott Tolzein on the road against a defense that is better than people think? Seems pretty easy. The Packers have also been horrible at creating turnovers this season, which is bad against a QB so willing to throw pick-sixes. The Giants have a great matchup here, and they've matched up well in the past against a Rodgers-led Packers offense.
Packers 17 Giants 26 (NYG -4.5)
San Francisco 49ers (6-3) @ New Orleans Saints (7-2) (NO -3.5)
I would love to pick the 49ers here, a team with linebackers good enough in coverage to maybe slow down Jimmy Graham, and a physical pass rush that can get to Brees, who's been far more susceptible to pass rush this year than in the past, with a sack percentage of 5.5%, the highest of his career at New Orleans. However, the Saints are just so much better at home, and the 49ers don't really have a good enough offense to make up for that. I could easily be wrong, but my head and heart tells me that the Saints cover a game with a line low enough that they might be undervalued.
49ers 23 49ers 28 (NO -3.5)
Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) @ Denver Broncos (8-1) (DEN -7.5)
So many opinions on this game. First, I don't think Manning's ankle injury will impact him more than normal. People are also way overestimating the amount of hits Manning has taken. Yes, he's been slightly injured, but that doesn't really mean he's getting hit more than usual. His sack percentage is actually lower this year than last year. Also, the Chiefs may have a league-leading 36 sacks, but only one has occured in the last two games. The Chiefs offense, really, is just not good enough in my mind to keep up with the Broncos, even if their defense limits the Broncos to like 27 points. The bigger matchup is the one in two weeks.
Chiefs 17 Broncos 27 (DEN -7.5)
New England Patriots (7-2) @ Carolina Panthers (6-3) (CAR -1.5)
The Panthers actually matchup pretty well with New England, with a run offense that can play well against a porous rush defense, controlling the clock, and a pass rush that can get pressure on Brady with just their front four, but there are so many reasons to take New England. First, they're coming off of a bye, while the Panthers had to fly cross-country after a really physical game. Then, the Patriots are still the Patriots, and are generally really good in primetime. Finally, I think the Panthers might be a little too high right now, their fans making a little too much of their team in advance of this game.
Patriots 27 Panthers 21 (NE +1.5)
Enjoy the Games!!
Year-to-Date: 84-61-2
This will be a quicker version than normal, so let's go:
Indianapolis Colts (6-3) @ Tennessee Titans (4-5) (IND -3)
The Colts can't possibly be that bad again. They have a tendency to play down to mediocre teams, but I have to think the Colts will respond to being embarrased at home. The Titans don't really match up well with the Colts either, with an average run defense and no one that can really cover Coby Fleener. Anyway, this is good value for an Indianapolis team that is far better than the one that presented itself on Sunday.
Colts 27 Titans 17 (IND -3)
Oakland Raiders (3-6) @ Houston Texans (2-7) (HOU -9)
Mike McGloin is expected to start, which cannot possibly go well against a team that still has a bunch of talent defensively. JJ Watt is having another dominant season, and he should absolutely abuse the soft interior of the Raiders o-line. I can see the Raiders defense having a bad game, playing down to an average offense. The Texans are far better than their record, and this line proves that.
Raiders 13 Texans 27 (HOU -9)
Arizona Cardinals (5-4) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) (ARZ -9)
This line seems high, but I can't see the Jaguars really doing anything offensively against one of the league's best defenses. Bruce Arians had a habit of playing bad teams way too close, which gives me pause about them covering nine points, and I like way too many favorites this week overall. Some of the underdogs have to cover, right? Why not pick one of those against a team favored by more than ever on the road.
Cardinals 23 Jaguars 17 (JAX +9)
Atlanta Falcons (2-7) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8) (ATL -1)
There is some support for the Buccaneers in this game, off of their first win, but I really don't see it. The Buccaneers did win their first game, but that was against a team in total disarray, and they blew a 15-0 lead in that game before recovering last minute to win. The Falcons are also more talented than their record, and this is a perfect situation to pick up a win with a tough remaining schedule to come.
Falcons 27 Buccaneers 23 (ATL -1)
Cleveland Browns (4-5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (6-4) (CIN -6.5)
High line, considering the Browns won their first matchup against the Bengals 17-6 in Cleveland. The Bengals are undefeated at home, and have covered all four games. They are just a much better team at home, especially defensively, and they have the good linebackers and tacklers to stop the Browns short passing game with Jason Campbell.
Browns 13 Bengals 23 (CIN -6.5)
New York Jets (5-4) @ Buffalo Bills (3-7) (NYJ -2)
I hate that I like basically all the favorites. It burns me terribly to keep picking them, but I just have to. The Jets defense is good enough to stop this Bills offense that has looked a little lifeless since EJ Manuel's first injury. Steve Johnson is out against the Jets, and their rush defense should neutralize Jackson/Spiller. The Jets are just a better team, and off of a bye I would have to think their offense should have some nice plays against Buffalo.
Jets 20 Bills 13 (NYJ -2)
Detroit Lions (6-3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6) (DET -3)
If the Lions really want to win the division, and compete potentially for the #2 seed, they have to win these winnable games, and there are a lot of them left. A lot of people don't expect the Lions to win a game like this because, well, they are the Lions. I'm sure their fans are completely skeptical, but last week they went on the road against a better team and won. This is a new Lions team, and this is a new, worse than in years, Steelers team.
Lions 30 Steelers 20 (DET -3)
Washington Redskins (3-6) @ Philadelphia Eagles (5-5) (PHI -4)
Hey look! I'm going to pick an underdog to win outright. The Redskins are coming off a TNF game, and teams cover a lot after playing on Thursday Night, with the extra days to prepare. The Eagles are getting a little too much love right now, and the Eagles are 0-5 at home this season. I would love to see the Redskins win and tighten this ridiculous NFC East race even further.
Redskins 31 Eagles 27 (WAS +4)
Baltimore Ravens (4-5) @ Chicago Bears (5-4) (CHI -3)
I'm doing it again!! This is too much!! The Ravens are playing a backup QB and they are playing damn good defense ever since the Manning 7-TD game in Week 1. The Bears could get by with Josh McCown against the Packers, but the Ravens defense is a bigger story. The Ravens might also get their run game going a little bit against one of the worst run defenses in the league. I can also see an emotional letdown for the Bears after losing last week's tough game to Detroit.
Ravens 23 Bears 20 (BAL +3)
San Diego Chargers (4-5) @ Miami Dolphins (4-5) (SD -2.5)
This is a tough spot for the Chargers, but a crucial one. After blowing the Redskins game, and losing at home to Denver, the Chargers are back in a tough spot, and have a game at Arrowhead next week. They need this game. The Dolphins can survive even with a loss here with two games left against the Jets. The Dolphins are still in disarray a bit, but that is obviously being factored into the line. With the line less than a field goal, there is still some good value with the Chargers.
Chargers 27 Dolphins 24 (SD -2.5)
Minnesota Vikings (2-7) @ Seattle Seahawks (9-1) (SEA -12.5)
This line is high, and I've gone with the underdog covering all double digit lines, and I'm not stopping now, especially for a Seahawks team that hasn't been great against the run against a team they might overlook, just like they did against Tampa Bay two years.
Vikings 20 Seahawks 31 (MIN +12.5)
Green Bay Packers (5-4) @ New York Giants (3-6) (NYG -4.5)
Scott Tolzein on the road against a defense that is better than people think? Seems pretty easy. The Packers have also been horrible at creating turnovers this season, which is bad against a QB so willing to throw pick-sixes. The Giants have a great matchup here, and they've matched up well in the past against a Rodgers-led Packers offense.
Packers 17 Giants 26 (NYG -4.5)
San Francisco 49ers (6-3) @ New Orleans Saints (7-2) (NO -3.5)
I would love to pick the 49ers here, a team with linebackers good enough in coverage to maybe slow down Jimmy Graham, and a physical pass rush that can get to Brees, who's been far more susceptible to pass rush this year than in the past, with a sack percentage of 5.5%, the highest of his career at New Orleans. However, the Saints are just so much better at home, and the 49ers don't really have a good enough offense to make up for that. I could easily be wrong, but my head and heart tells me that the Saints cover a game with a line low enough that they might be undervalued.
49ers 23 49ers 28 (NO -3.5)
Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) @ Denver Broncos (8-1) (DEN -7.5)
So many opinions on this game. First, I don't think Manning's ankle injury will impact him more than normal. People are also way overestimating the amount of hits Manning has taken. Yes, he's been slightly injured, but that doesn't really mean he's getting hit more than usual. His sack percentage is actually lower this year than last year. Also, the Chiefs may have a league-leading 36 sacks, but only one has occured in the last two games. The Chiefs offense, really, is just not good enough in my mind to keep up with the Broncos, even if their defense limits the Broncos to like 27 points. The bigger matchup is the one in two weeks.
Chiefs 17 Broncos 27 (DEN -7.5)
New England Patriots (7-2) @ Carolina Panthers (6-3) (CAR -1.5)
The Panthers actually matchup pretty well with New England, with a run offense that can play well against a porous rush defense, controlling the clock, and a pass rush that can get pressure on Brady with just their front four, but there are so many reasons to take New England. First, they're coming off of a bye, while the Panthers had to fly cross-country after a really physical game. Then, the Patriots are still the Patriots, and are generally really good in primetime. Finally, I think the Panthers might be a little too high right now, their fans making a little too much of their team in advance of this game.
Patriots 27 Panthers 21 (NE +1.5)
Enjoy the Games!!
