Most of my preseason italicized predictions are all wrong, so I'm not even going to go back over those.
Instead, I'm going to do the following for my Midseason Review
1.) Award Races
2.) 1st-Half All-Pros
3.) Predicting Each game of the 2nd Half and the Division Races (2nd post)
Handicapping the Award Races
MVP
1.) Peyton Manning (QB - DEN)
2.) Drew Brees (QB - NO)
3.) Calvin Johnson (WR - DET)
4.) Muhammad Wilkerson (DT - NYJ)
5.) Andrew Luck (QB - IND)
Hon. Mention: Aaron Rodgers (QB - GB)
With Rodgers essentially injuring himself out of the race (if he misses three games, he's basically done), there's really no good argument for anyone other than Peyton Manning. Calvin has a shot, but historically, WRs never get any MVP love (the only recent name I can think of was Steve Smith in 2005). Rodgers was basically the only one who's stats were in Manning's stratosphere and had to deal with injuries to skill position players. Lost in what has been just great play instead of best-of-all-time play, Peyton Manning is still on pace for 5,800 yards and 58 TDs. Even if he ends up with 5,100 yards and 51 TDs, he's getting the MVP. He deserved it last year, and he deserves it more this year.
Offensive Player of the Year
1.) Peyton Manning (QB-DEN)
2.) Calvin Johnson (WR-DET)
3.) Jimmy Graham (TE-NO)
4.) Philip Rivers (QB-SD)
5.) Drew Brees (QB-NO)
Peyton Manning deserves this for the same reason he deserves the MVP. He's having a season that no one has approached in terms of volume. His efficiency has now dropped below his '04 season, as well as Brady's '07, but as a player who could easily break both the yardage and TD record, that should be enough to win this award. Calvin Johnon's pace is slightly less than last year, but he's having another ridiculous season and getting better by the week. Graham is on pace to break some of Gronk's numbers from 2011. Rivers and Brees are having the 2nd and 3rd best seasons of any QB statistically, not counting the injured Rodgers.
Defensive Player of the Year
1.) JJ Watt (DE-HOU)
2.) Muhammad Wilkerson (DT-NYJ)
3.) Justin Houston (DE-KC)
4.) Robert Mathis (OLB-IND)
5.) Richard Sherman (CB-SEA)
Watt probably won't win the award, because he's not having the season he was last year, numbers-wise, but he's been about as disruptive overall, and is still the best defensive player in the NFL. I have Wilkerson ranked ahead of Houston because he's been better against the run and doesn't have pro bowlers all around him on defense. Wilkerson is making that defense run. Houston is playing great on his own, but being on the same defense as Tamba Hali and Dontari Poe will make him seem less important. Robert Mathis has slowed down in recent games, but he's still the leader in sacks and could easily end up with 17-19 sacks. Sherman has been the best secondary player this season, to me, so I give him his notional award, but it a Front-7 league on defense.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
1.) Eddie Lacy (RB-GB)
2.) Keenan Allen (WR-SD)
3.) DeAndre Hopkins (WR-HOU)
Geno Smith will probably win the award if the Jets make the playoffs, but while I think he has a bright future, I don't this his play really warrants it. Eddie Lacy has been great in Green Bay, providing them the one thing they were missing on offense (also, with Rodgers out 3-4 games, Lacy has a chance to lock this up). Keenan Allen has quietly had a great year, showing up greatly for the Chargers as they've missed their #1-2 receivers from 2013. Hopkins has shown that he could finally be the #2 in Houston opposite Andre Johnson.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
1.) Kiko Alonso (OLB-BUF)
2.) Sheldon Richardson (DT-NYJ)
3.) Tyrann Mathieu (CB-ARZ)
Really strong crop this year, which is nice after Luke Kuechly ran away with the award, fleeing past no real competitor. Kiko Alonso is having a very good year, slotting in really nicely in that Bills defense, playing great Linebacker so far. Richardson, though, is really close. There is a case for him. Sure, the Jets have a bunch of other talented players on defense (including Wilkerson, who is a best), but Richardson has been a really tough Nose Tackle, already necessitating double blocks. Tyrann Mathieu has been actually better as a corner than Peterson was as a rookie. I don't know if he'll match the improvements Peterson has made as a sophomore player, but Tyrann Mathieu was a great 3rd round pick.
Coach of the Year
1.) Andy Reid (KC)
2.) Mike McCoy (SD)
3.) Sean Payton (NO)
Andy Reid is the obvious answer. Even if the Chiefs finish 2-5, he'll deservedly run away with the award. He's taken a team that was 2-14 last season to a 9-0 start. No matter how many backup QBs they face, that is wildly impressive. Picking McCoy over Payton may be odd, but many predicted this from Payton's return to New Orleans, and what's really made the Saints 6-2 is their defense, not the improvement from the offense. Mike McCoy inherited a mess of a situation, and despite losing key players on both sides of the ball, he's coached Philip Rivers back into a pro-bowl QB. They may not make the playoffs, but there is a bright future in San Diego, and Mike McCoy is part of that.
1st Half All-Pro Team
*-This is purely for the 1st half. Rodgers went get it, but unlike me excluding Rodgers from MVP, he was #2 in my 1st-Half All-Pro QB
QB - Peyton Manning
Just read what is above regarding Manning in the MVP area. This is pretty obvious.
WR - Calvin Johnson (DET)
WR - AJ Green (CIN)
WR - Andre Johnson (HOU)
The first two are obvious. Calvin Johnson, despite missing a game, is 3rd in the league in receiving yards (and the guys at #1-2 haven't had their bye yet). His numbers are below what they were last year, but he is still every bit as good. AJ Green is rounding into form as a dominant receiver, and he might got more opportunities if Marvin Jones continues to play well and teams can't triple team Green. Andre Johnson is basically the NFL WR equivalent of Albert Pujols, quietly putting up monster numbers year after year. He's 4th in the league in yards per game (and two of those ahead of them are either suspended for the year or broke their foot four weeks ago).
RB - Jamaal Charles (KC)
TE - Jimmy Graham (NO)
Jimmy Graham is obvious, having a year that might have contended for All-Pro even if he was a WR. He's on pace to break many of his records from 2011, and break Gronk's TD record for a TE also. Graham vs. LeSean McCoy was a close call, but I'm going with the guy who plays in an offense that is harder to get rushing lanes (just look at the y/c numbers for running backs in Michael Vick offenses), and Charles has done more in the passing game (not by too much, though). Charles has gotten some MVP love, which is absurd, but he's having another great season.
T - Duane Brown (HOU)
T - Joe Staley (SF)
G - Marshal Yanda (BAL)
G - Mike Iupati (SF)
C - Nick Mangold (NYJ)
As I have said and will always so, I have no idea how to judge O-Lineman in the NFL. These to me are all having good years. The Jets run game is back, and some of that has to do with Mangold having his best year since his dominant 2010 campaign. Iupati and Staley lead the league's best O-Line, who've opened wholes for the best running attack in the NFL. Brown has been great in Houston, and Yanda has been the only stable O-Lineman for the Ravens.
DL - JJ Watt (HOU)
DL - Muhammad Wilkerson (NYJ)
DL - Robert Quinn (STL)
DL - Mario Williams (BUF)
I'm going with a 4-4-4 defense. Yes, that's wrong, but screw it. I've combined these two positions because they should be in All-Pro voting, so we don't get a situation like last year where JJ Watt was named an All-Pro at DT and DE. Watt is still the best defensive player in football, and Wilkerson has been nearly as good. Robert Quinn has been an absolutely dominant edge rusher, the best 4-3 DE in football so far, and Mario Williams has done a lot to earn the sick amount of money he's getting paid.
OLB - Robert Mathis (IND)
OLB - Justin Houston (KC)
Robert Mathis has been incredible so far this season, just abusing the lineman that try to block him. He's still on pace to break Strahan's sack record. He won't get there, but he's been the best 3-4 OLB so far this season, and basically single-handidly making the Colts an above-average pass rush team.
ILB - NaVarro Bowman (SF)
ILB - Sean Lee (DAL)
NaVarro Bowman has been great, even with Patrick Willis next to him for some of them, still as good against both the pass and rush as he's ever been. He might be given the Lance Briggs treatment in terms of the way he's eventually viewed, where Willis (to Briggs' Urlacher), the more famous player, goes into the HOF, while Bowman, about 95% as good, doesn't. Sean Lee has perfectly meshed with the Tampa-2, regaining his spot as the best coverage linebacker in the NFL (though Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis have done great work in Carolina).
CB - Richard Sherman (SEA)
CB - Alterraun Verner (TEN)
Richard Sherman is obviously having a great season, with 4 interceptions, and lockdown coverage against basically everyone he's played. I had a tough time picking a 2nd player, but Verner is a good choice. He's had a great season, picking his play up to make that whole Titans defense better. Verner a few years ago was a top notch slot corner, but now he's gone outside and become even more effective.
S - Earl Thomas (SEA)
S - Glover Quin (DET)
Earl Thomas was an easy selection, for all of the reasons that Sherman was at corner. Thomas has raised his game, making up for surprisingly middling play by Kam Chancellor. The second safety was a tough choice. Glover Quin is having a really good year in Detroit, stabilizing a secondary that had been anything but in recent seasons.
Instead, I'm going to do the following for my Midseason Review
1.) Award Races
2.) 1st-Half All-Pros
3.) Predicting Each game of the 2nd Half and the Division Races (2nd post)
Handicapping the Award Races
MVP
1.) Peyton Manning (QB - DEN)
2.) Drew Brees (QB - NO)
3.) Calvin Johnson (WR - DET)
4.) Muhammad Wilkerson (DT - NYJ)
5.) Andrew Luck (QB - IND)
Hon. Mention: Aaron Rodgers (QB - GB)
With Rodgers essentially injuring himself out of the race (if he misses three games, he's basically done), there's really no good argument for anyone other than Peyton Manning. Calvin has a shot, but historically, WRs never get any MVP love (the only recent name I can think of was Steve Smith in 2005). Rodgers was basically the only one who's stats were in Manning's stratosphere and had to deal with injuries to skill position players. Lost in what has been just great play instead of best-of-all-time play, Peyton Manning is still on pace for 5,800 yards and 58 TDs. Even if he ends up with 5,100 yards and 51 TDs, he's getting the MVP. He deserved it last year, and he deserves it more this year.
Offensive Player of the Year
1.) Peyton Manning (QB-DEN)
2.) Calvin Johnson (WR-DET)
3.) Jimmy Graham (TE-NO)
4.) Philip Rivers (QB-SD)
5.) Drew Brees (QB-NO)
Peyton Manning deserves this for the same reason he deserves the MVP. He's having a season that no one has approached in terms of volume. His efficiency has now dropped below his '04 season, as well as Brady's '07, but as a player who could easily break both the yardage and TD record, that should be enough to win this award. Calvin Johnon's pace is slightly less than last year, but he's having another ridiculous season and getting better by the week. Graham is on pace to break some of Gronk's numbers from 2011. Rivers and Brees are having the 2nd and 3rd best seasons of any QB statistically, not counting the injured Rodgers.
Defensive Player of the Year
1.) JJ Watt (DE-HOU)
2.) Muhammad Wilkerson (DT-NYJ)
3.) Justin Houston (DE-KC)
4.) Robert Mathis (OLB-IND)
5.) Richard Sherman (CB-SEA)
Watt probably won't win the award, because he's not having the season he was last year, numbers-wise, but he's been about as disruptive overall, and is still the best defensive player in the NFL. I have Wilkerson ranked ahead of Houston because he's been better against the run and doesn't have pro bowlers all around him on defense. Wilkerson is making that defense run. Houston is playing great on his own, but being on the same defense as Tamba Hali and Dontari Poe will make him seem less important. Robert Mathis has slowed down in recent games, but he's still the leader in sacks and could easily end up with 17-19 sacks. Sherman has been the best secondary player this season, to me, so I give him his notional award, but it a Front-7 league on defense.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
1.) Eddie Lacy (RB-GB)
2.) Keenan Allen (WR-SD)
3.) DeAndre Hopkins (WR-HOU)
Geno Smith will probably win the award if the Jets make the playoffs, but while I think he has a bright future, I don't this his play really warrants it. Eddie Lacy has been great in Green Bay, providing them the one thing they were missing on offense (also, with Rodgers out 3-4 games, Lacy has a chance to lock this up). Keenan Allen has quietly had a great year, showing up greatly for the Chargers as they've missed their #1-2 receivers from 2013. Hopkins has shown that he could finally be the #2 in Houston opposite Andre Johnson.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
1.) Kiko Alonso (OLB-BUF)
2.) Sheldon Richardson (DT-NYJ)
3.) Tyrann Mathieu (CB-ARZ)
Really strong crop this year, which is nice after Luke Kuechly ran away with the award, fleeing past no real competitor. Kiko Alonso is having a very good year, slotting in really nicely in that Bills defense, playing great Linebacker so far. Richardson, though, is really close. There is a case for him. Sure, the Jets have a bunch of other talented players on defense (including Wilkerson, who is a best), but Richardson has been a really tough Nose Tackle, already necessitating double blocks. Tyrann Mathieu has been actually better as a corner than Peterson was as a rookie. I don't know if he'll match the improvements Peterson has made as a sophomore player, but Tyrann Mathieu was a great 3rd round pick.
Coach of the Year
1.) Andy Reid (KC)
2.) Mike McCoy (SD)
3.) Sean Payton (NO)
Andy Reid is the obvious answer. Even if the Chiefs finish 2-5, he'll deservedly run away with the award. He's taken a team that was 2-14 last season to a 9-0 start. No matter how many backup QBs they face, that is wildly impressive. Picking McCoy over Payton may be odd, but many predicted this from Payton's return to New Orleans, and what's really made the Saints 6-2 is their defense, not the improvement from the offense. Mike McCoy inherited a mess of a situation, and despite losing key players on both sides of the ball, he's coached Philip Rivers back into a pro-bowl QB. They may not make the playoffs, but there is a bright future in San Diego, and Mike McCoy is part of that.
1st Half All-Pro Team
*-This is purely for the 1st half. Rodgers went get it, but unlike me excluding Rodgers from MVP, he was #2 in my 1st-Half All-Pro QB
QB - Peyton Manning
Just read what is above regarding Manning in the MVP area. This is pretty obvious.
WR - Calvin Johnson (DET)
WR - AJ Green (CIN)
WR - Andre Johnson (HOU)
The first two are obvious. Calvin Johnson, despite missing a game, is 3rd in the league in receiving yards (and the guys at #1-2 haven't had their bye yet). His numbers are below what they were last year, but he is still every bit as good. AJ Green is rounding into form as a dominant receiver, and he might got more opportunities if Marvin Jones continues to play well and teams can't triple team Green. Andre Johnson is basically the NFL WR equivalent of Albert Pujols, quietly putting up monster numbers year after year. He's 4th in the league in yards per game (and two of those ahead of them are either suspended for the year or broke their foot four weeks ago).
RB - Jamaal Charles (KC)
TE - Jimmy Graham (NO)
Jimmy Graham is obvious, having a year that might have contended for All-Pro even if he was a WR. He's on pace to break many of his records from 2011, and break Gronk's TD record for a TE also. Graham vs. LeSean McCoy was a close call, but I'm going with the guy who plays in an offense that is harder to get rushing lanes (just look at the y/c numbers for running backs in Michael Vick offenses), and Charles has done more in the passing game (not by too much, though). Charles has gotten some MVP love, which is absurd, but he's having another great season.
T - Duane Brown (HOU)
T - Joe Staley (SF)
G - Marshal Yanda (BAL)
G - Mike Iupati (SF)
C - Nick Mangold (NYJ)
As I have said and will always so, I have no idea how to judge O-Lineman in the NFL. These to me are all having good years. The Jets run game is back, and some of that has to do with Mangold having his best year since his dominant 2010 campaign. Iupati and Staley lead the league's best O-Line, who've opened wholes for the best running attack in the NFL. Brown has been great in Houston, and Yanda has been the only stable O-Lineman for the Ravens.
DL - JJ Watt (HOU)
DL - Muhammad Wilkerson (NYJ)
DL - Robert Quinn (STL)
DL - Mario Williams (BUF)
I'm going with a 4-4-4 defense. Yes, that's wrong, but screw it. I've combined these two positions because they should be in All-Pro voting, so we don't get a situation like last year where JJ Watt was named an All-Pro at DT and DE. Watt is still the best defensive player in football, and Wilkerson has been nearly as good. Robert Quinn has been an absolutely dominant edge rusher, the best 4-3 DE in football so far, and Mario Williams has done a lot to earn the sick amount of money he's getting paid.
OLB - Robert Mathis (IND)
OLB - Justin Houston (KC)
Robert Mathis has been incredible so far this season, just abusing the lineman that try to block him. He's still on pace to break Strahan's sack record. He won't get there, but he's been the best 3-4 OLB so far this season, and basically single-handidly making the Colts an above-average pass rush team.
ILB - NaVarro Bowman (SF)
ILB - Sean Lee (DAL)
NaVarro Bowman has been great, even with Patrick Willis next to him for some of them, still as good against both the pass and rush as he's ever been. He might be given the Lance Briggs treatment in terms of the way he's eventually viewed, where Willis (to Briggs' Urlacher), the more famous player, goes into the HOF, while Bowman, about 95% as good, doesn't. Sean Lee has perfectly meshed with the Tampa-2, regaining his spot as the best coverage linebacker in the NFL (though Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis have done great work in Carolina).
CB - Richard Sherman (SEA)
CB - Alterraun Verner (TEN)
Richard Sherman is obviously having a great season, with 4 interceptions, and lockdown coverage against basically everyone he's played. I had a tough time picking a 2nd player, but Verner is a good choice. He's had a great season, picking his play up to make that whole Titans defense better. Verner a few years ago was a top notch slot corner, but now he's gone outside and become even more effective.
S - Earl Thomas (SEA)
S - Glover Quin (DET)
Earl Thomas was an easy selection, for all of the reasons that Sherman was at corner. Thomas has raised his game, making up for surprisingly middling play by Kam Chancellor. The second safety was a tough choice. Glover Quin is having a really good year in Detroit, stabilizing a secondary that had been anything but in recent seasons.
