Bad week last time out, going just 5-9-1, my worst week of the year. Maybe that's because I started off the column saying 'this will be quick'. Well, this might be quick. We'll see.
New Orleans Saints (8-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (2-8) (NO -9.5)
This line is too high. Road teams have a tough time covering on Thursday Night, especially against inflated spreads. The Falcons have to show up for this game, and I think they will. The Saints offense is a little banged up, with Jahri Evans expected to miss the game. I just think this is way too high a line to pick to win and cover on a Thursday Night in a major rivalry game where only one side would be too interested in the rivalry aspect of the game (Atlanta), while the other has a far more important game 10 days later (New Orleans).
Saints 27 Falcons 21 (ATL +9.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8) @ Detroit Lions (6-4) (DET -8)
I also think this line is too high. At least in this game the team favored by a lot are at home, but the Buccaneers, under the Reign of Glennon, have come together to at least play consistently decent football. Detroit is good at home (losing there to just Cincinnati), but after mistakenly trusting them to cover on the road against Pittsburgh, I really don't have much faith here. I think they'll win, and they could easily cover, but I've really lost faith in them last week. And they, much like New Orleans, have a far more important game coming up.
Buccaneers 20 Lions 24 (TB +8)
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) @ Houston Texans (2-8) (HOU -10)
The Texans were 2-0. That happened. That was real. Now, they could have very easily lost either of those games, but they've lost their last 8 games, and now they are a 10 point favorite. That is how bad the Jacksonville Jaguars are. After their deserved win to allow them to avoid an 0-16 season, they were back to their best losing easily at home to Arizona. I've done pretty badly picking them to cover really high spreads. It hasn't worked. I'm giving up that theory. The Texans are still a far, far more talented team than Jacksonville, and they have to win sooner or later. Sooner happens now, they take out their frustrations.
Jaguars 10 Texans 27 (HOU -10)
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-6) @ Cleveland Browns (4-6) (CLE -1)
This pathetic Steelers team that is leaking Roethlisberger trade rumors, that has one of the worst hires ever as their Offensive Coordinators, which gave up 55 points 20 days ago, they are just one game back of the #6 seed (and they've beaten the current #6 seeded Jets). This can't be happening. The Browns are a decent team at home, but a checkdown machine like Jason Campbell is the exact wrong QB to take advantage of the problems in the Steelers defense. I think the Steelers win, setting up somehow what will be a really big game on Thanksgiving Night.
Steelers 20 Browns 13 (PIT +1)
Chicago Bears (6-4) @ St. Louis Rams (6-4) (STL -1)
This is a really tough game to pick. The low line essentially makes this about picking a winner. There's not one matchup on either side that I really like for either team. The closest to any real advantage is the Bears receivers against a secondary that just lost Cortland Finnegan, and a scheme that can neutralize the Rams pass rush. The other side should allow Zack Stacy to have a nice game against a terrible defense. I think the Bears are a better team, and Josh McCown is playing well, but the Rams are at home coming off of a bye. I really have no idea, but I'll give it to St. Louis, who's own backup QB could succeed against a defense that is more injured than ever.
Bears 20 Rams 23 (STL -1)
Minnesota Vikings (2-8) @ Green Bay Packers (5-5) (GB -5.5)
Aaron Rodgers might or might not be back for the Thanksgiving game, and there is a legitimate chance the Packers go 0-5 without Rodgers (Aaron playing one drive of the first game). The Packers were 5-2, cruising to the NFC North with an easy schedule ahead. A 1st-round bye was on the table, and now it is probably more likely than not the Packers aren't in the playoffs. Just sad. Anyway, Christian Ponder is starting once again, as is Scott Tolzein, who didn't look terrible. Considering the backup, this line seems a little high to me. I can easily see the Vikings winning, controlling the clock the same way the Giants did. I'll take the Packers to win, but not cover this number.
Vikings 21 Packers 24 (MIN +5.5)
San Diego Chargers (4-6) @ Kansas City Chiefs (9-1) (KC -4.5)
After taking way too many favorites last week and getting owned for it, I'm taking way too many underdogs in this week. This is a classic trap game for the Chiefs, combining a little come-down after a big loss, with a massive, massive game coming up next week. The Chargers have much more to play for in this game, as a loss here is so hurtful to their playoff chances. The Chargers quick-throw offense should do well against the Chiefs defense. It's the other side I worry about. I think this line is fine, and ATS, this is a 50/50 prop. I'll go with San Diego, but I don't feel too confident about it.
Chargers 23 Chiefs 20 (SD +4.5)
New York Jets (4-6) @ Baltimore Ravens (4-6) (BAL -3.5)
Ravens. Two years ago, Mark Sanchez took a 2-1 Jets team to Baltimore in Week 4. The Jets got slaughtered 34-17 (in a game where each team had two Defense or Special Teams TDs). Mark Sanchez was never really the same again. Geno Smith, honestly, has worse stats than Mark Sanchez did in his rookie season. He's had better games than Mark did, but also, and this is hard to believe, has had worse ones. The Jets are entering a buzz-saw, to me, right now. They'll finally break their win-one-lose-one streak in the worse of the two ways.
Jets 14 Ravens 24 (BAL -3.5)
Carolina Panthers (7-3) @ Miami Dolphins (5-5) (CAR -5)
This line scares me. The Panthers are a very good team, but there's some trends going against them. First, they're playing off of a short week. Then, they're playing a team playing its 2nd straight home game (teams cover a 2nd straight home game more often than not). The Dolphins quietly, are still in the thick of the Wild Card race, and they need this game. The Panthers do to, needing to keep pace with New Orleans. I'll go with the Panthers, a team I've ridden the past six weeks, where they're 6-0 straight up and ATS, but I wouldn't be shocked if the Dolphins win this. What decides it for me, though, is the Panthers front seven, and D-Line in particular (which will be without Charles Johnson) against that mess of an O-Line for Miami.
Panthers 26 Dolphins 13 (CAR -5)
Tennessee Titans (4-6) @ Oakland Raiders (4-6) (TEN -1)
Why are the Titans the favorite here? Both teams are starting a backup QB. Ryan Fitzpatrick has yet to win a game. The Raiders have won with McGloin as a starter. The Raiders defense has held up outside of one terrible performance against Philadelphia. The Raiders offense is missing McFadden but not like that has stopped them from being frisky before. The only thing Tennessee has going for it is they're coming off a Thursday Night Game. I think the Raiders will get way more of the public action, and that is why I'm taking Tennessee.
Titans 30 Raiders 20 (TEN -1)
Indianapolis Colts (7-3) @ Arizona Cardinals (6-4) (ARZ -3)
After claiming I was taking too many underdogs, I took three straight favorites, and I love the Cardinals here. What do we know about Indianapolis? They start slow. Even in the games the high profile games they've won, they have started slow (12-0 to Seattle, 7-0 to Denver). The Cardinals are good enough defensively that they won't let the Colts comeback from down by too much. Bruce Arians is playing his former team here. And, the Colts have far less to play for here, as yes, they still have to play to win a first-round bye, but a loss to an NFC team is the loss you can live with. The Cardinals need to keep pace with the other 6-4 teams in the wild card race (Chicago/Detroit, San Francisco). They can't afford to lose these winnable games. So... I think they will. I like the Colts, who's defense should do really well against this marginal offense.
Colts 24 Cardinals 20 (IND +3)
Dallas Cowboys (5-5) @ New York Giants (4-6) (NYG -2.5)
This line is dumb. It should be higher. Dallas is not very good. They're defense is really injured, and the Giants are finding some form offensively. The Giants offense has been good for a month now, and the Cowboys offense has been average for about as long. The Giants are at home, with more to play for, and they rarely get swept by the Cowboys (hasn't happened since 2007 - when of course they won the 3rd game between the two teams). The Giants should be favored by more, and I think they win and cover this low spread.
Cowboys 20 Giants 28 (NYG -2.5)
Denver Broncos (9-1) @ New England Patriots (7-3) (NE -2.5)
I listen to the Grantland NFL Podcast, and one of their co-hosts, Bill Barnwell, asked a really good question: "What do the Patriots do better than Denver?". In reality, because of injuries up front to Wilfork, Kelly and Mayo, and a banged-up secondary, the answer, really, is nothing. They have a better coaching staff, probably. They have a better special teams, but Denver's isn't bad. Denver's passing offense is better. It's rush offense is basically the same (DVOA has Denver's better). Their rush defense is better, and since the return of Von Miller, their pass defense and New England's have gone in opposite directions. That all said, this game is way, way, way more important for New England. A loss here, really, means nothing for Denver if they can beat Kansas City next week. That game is far more important. They can lose this game, and still be in full control of getting the #1 seed. The Patriots don't have that luxury. I don't think the Broncos are overlooking New England. But I think the Patriots are a good team, and they're desperate. This is going against the historical trend of the rivalry (which is, outside of 2008 when Brady wasn't there, the better record going into the game wins - held in 2003-4 playoffs, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009 and 2010, it was tied the other years), but I think desperation matters.
Broncos 27 Patriots 30 (NE -2.5)
San Francisco 49ers (6-4) @ Washington Redskins (3-7) (SF -6)
I feel a lot about this game that I feel about the Saints vs. Falcons game, where the underdog will be throwing everything at this game. The one difference is the Saints may have misplaced focus, with a clearly bigger game coming next. The 49ers don't have that. They have to stop this losing streak and win. In many ways, there a ton of similarities between this game and the 49ers @ Rams game back in Week 4, when the 49ers were coming off of two straight losses and had to play a road primetime game. They slaughtered the Rams. If the 49ers have shown anything, it is that they can beat up on bad teams. The Redskins are a bad team, and the 49ers should beat them badly enough.
49ers 34 Redskins 17 (SF -6)
Enjoy the Games!!
New Orleans Saints (8-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (2-8) (NO -9.5)
This line is too high. Road teams have a tough time covering on Thursday Night, especially against inflated spreads. The Falcons have to show up for this game, and I think they will. The Saints offense is a little banged up, with Jahri Evans expected to miss the game. I just think this is way too high a line to pick to win and cover on a Thursday Night in a major rivalry game where only one side would be too interested in the rivalry aspect of the game (Atlanta), while the other has a far more important game 10 days later (New Orleans).
Saints 27 Falcons 21 (ATL +9.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8) @ Detroit Lions (6-4) (DET -8)
I also think this line is too high. At least in this game the team favored by a lot are at home, but the Buccaneers, under the Reign of Glennon, have come together to at least play consistently decent football. Detroit is good at home (losing there to just Cincinnati), but after mistakenly trusting them to cover on the road against Pittsburgh, I really don't have much faith here. I think they'll win, and they could easily cover, but I've really lost faith in them last week. And they, much like New Orleans, have a far more important game coming up.
Buccaneers 20 Lions 24 (TB +8)
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) @ Houston Texans (2-8) (HOU -10)
The Texans were 2-0. That happened. That was real. Now, they could have very easily lost either of those games, but they've lost their last 8 games, and now they are a 10 point favorite. That is how bad the Jacksonville Jaguars are. After their deserved win to allow them to avoid an 0-16 season, they were back to their best losing easily at home to Arizona. I've done pretty badly picking them to cover really high spreads. It hasn't worked. I'm giving up that theory. The Texans are still a far, far more talented team than Jacksonville, and they have to win sooner or later. Sooner happens now, they take out their frustrations.
Jaguars 10 Texans 27 (HOU -10)
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-6) @ Cleveland Browns (4-6) (CLE -1)
This pathetic Steelers team that is leaking Roethlisberger trade rumors, that has one of the worst hires ever as their Offensive Coordinators, which gave up 55 points 20 days ago, they are just one game back of the #6 seed (and they've beaten the current #6 seeded Jets). This can't be happening. The Browns are a decent team at home, but a checkdown machine like Jason Campbell is the exact wrong QB to take advantage of the problems in the Steelers defense. I think the Steelers win, setting up somehow what will be a really big game on Thanksgiving Night.
Steelers 20 Browns 13 (PIT +1)
Chicago Bears (6-4) @ St. Louis Rams (6-4) (STL -1)
This is a really tough game to pick. The low line essentially makes this about picking a winner. There's not one matchup on either side that I really like for either team. The closest to any real advantage is the Bears receivers against a secondary that just lost Cortland Finnegan, and a scheme that can neutralize the Rams pass rush. The other side should allow Zack Stacy to have a nice game against a terrible defense. I think the Bears are a better team, and Josh McCown is playing well, but the Rams are at home coming off of a bye. I really have no idea, but I'll give it to St. Louis, who's own backup QB could succeed against a defense that is more injured than ever.
Bears 20 Rams 23 (STL -1)
Minnesota Vikings (2-8) @ Green Bay Packers (5-5) (GB -5.5)
Aaron Rodgers might or might not be back for the Thanksgiving game, and there is a legitimate chance the Packers go 0-5 without Rodgers (Aaron playing one drive of the first game). The Packers were 5-2, cruising to the NFC North with an easy schedule ahead. A 1st-round bye was on the table, and now it is probably more likely than not the Packers aren't in the playoffs. Just sad. Anyway, Christian Ponder is starting once again, as is Scott Tolzein, who didn't look terrible. Considering the backup, this line seems a little high to me. I can easily see the Vikings winning, controlling the clock the same way the Giants did. I'll take the Packers to win, but not cover this number.
Vikings 21 Packers 24 (MIN +5.5)
San Diego Chargers (4-6) @ Kansas City Chiefs (9-1) (KC -4.5)
After taking way too many favorites last week and getting owned for it, I'm taking way too many underdogs in this week. This is a classic trap game for the Chiefs, combining a little come-down after a big loss, with a massive, massive game coming up next week. The Chargers have much more to play for in this game, as a loss here is so hurtful to their playoff chances. The Chargers quick-throw offense should do well against the Chiefs defense. It's the other side I worry about. I think this line is fine, and ATS, this is a 50/50 prop. I'll go with San Diego, but I don't feel too confident about it.
Chargers 23 Chiefs 20 (SD +4.5)
New York Jets (4-6) @ Baltimore Ravens (4-6) (BAL -3.5)
Ravens. Two years ago, Mark Sanchez took a 2-1 Jets team to Baltimore in Week 4. The Jets got slaughtered 34-17 (in a game where each team had two Defense or Special Teams TDs). Mark Sanchez was never really the same again. Geno Smith, honestly, has worse stats than Mark Sanchez did in his rookie season. He's had better games than Mark did, but also, and this is hard to believe, has had worse ones. The Jets are entering a buzz-saw, to me, right now. They'll finally break their win-one-lose-one streak in the worse of the two ways.
Jets 14 Ravens 24 (BAL -3.5)
Carolina Panthers (7-3) @ Miami Dolphins (5-5) (CAR -5)
This line scares me. The Panthers are a very good team, but there's some trends going against them. First, they're playing off of a short week. Then, they're playing a team playing its 2nd straight home game (teams cover a 2nd straight home game more often than not). The Dolphins quietly, are still in the thick of the Wild Card race, and they need this game. The Panthers do to, needing to keep pace with New Orleans. I'll go with the Panthers, a team I've ridden the past six weeks, where they're 6-0 straight up and ATS, but I wouldn't be shocked if the Dolphins win this. What decides it for me, though, is the Panthers front seven, and D-Line in particular (which will be without Charles Johnson) against that mess of an O-Line for Miami.
Panthers 26 Dolphins 13 (CAR -5)
Tennessee Titans (4-6) @ Oakland Raiders (4-6) (TEN -1)
Why are the Titans the favorite here? Both teams are starting a backup QB. Ryan Fitzpatrick has yet to win a game. The Raiders have won with McGloin as a starter. The Raiders defense has held up outside of one terrible performance against Philadelphia. The Raiders offense is missing McFadden but not like that has stopped them from being frisky before. The only thing Tennessee has going for it is they're coming off a Thursday Night Game. I think the Raiders will get way more of the public action, and that is why I'm taking Tennessee.
Titans 30 Raiders 20 (TEN -1)
Indianapolis Colts (7-3) @ Arizona Cardinals (6-4) (ARZ -3)
After claiming I was taking too many underdogs, I took three straight favorites, and I love the Cardinals here. What do we know about Indianapolis? They start slow. Even in the games the high profile games they've won, they have started slow (12-0 to Seattle, 7-0 to Denver). The Cardinals are good enough defensively that they won't let the Colts comeback from down by too much. Bruce Arians is playing his former team here. And, the Colts have far less to play for here, as yes, they still have to play to win a first-round bye, but a loss to an NFC team is the loss you can live with. The Cardinals need to keep pace with the other 6-4 teams in the wild card race (Chicago/Detroit, San Francisco). They can't afford to lose these winnable games. So... I think they will. I like the Colts, who's defense should do really well against this marginal offense.
Colts 24 Cardinals 20 (IND +3)
Dallas Cowboys (5-5) @ New York Giants (4-6) (NYG -2.5)
This line is dumb. It should be higher. Dallas is not very good. They're defense is really injured, and the Giants are finding some form offensively. The Giants offense has been good for a month now, and the Cowboys offense has been average for about as long. The Giants are at home, with more to play for, and they rarely get swept by the Cowboys (hasn't happened since 2007 - when of course they won the 3rd game between the two teams). The Giants should be favored by more, and I think they win and cover this low spread.
Cowboys 20 Giants 28 (NYG -2.5)
Denver Broncos (9-1) @ New England Patriots (7-3) (NE -2.5)
I listen to the Grantland NFL Podcast, and one of their co-hosts, Bill Barnwell, asked a really good question: "What do the Patriots do better than Denver?". In reality, because of injuries up front to Wilfork, Kelly and Mayo, and a banged-up secondary, the answer, really, is nothing. They have a better coaching staff, probably. They have a better special teams, but Denver's isn't bad. Denver's passing offense is better. It's rush offense is basically the same (DVOA has Denver's better). Their rush defense is better, and since the return of Von Miller, their pass defense and New England's have gone in opposite directions. That all said, this game is way, way, way more important for New England. A loss here, really, means nothing for Denver if they can beat Kansas City next week. That game is far more important. They can lose this game, and still be in full control of getting the #1 seed. The Patriots don't have that luxury. I don't think the Broncos are overlooking New England. But I think the Patriots are a good team, and they're desperate. This is going against the historical trend of the rivalry (which is, outside of 2008 when Brady wasn't there, the better record going into the game wins - held in 2003-4 playoffs, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009 and 2010, it was tied the other years), but I think desperation matters.
Broncos 27 Patriots 30 (NE -2.5)
San Francisco 49ers (6-4) @ Washington Redskins (3-7) (SF -6)
I feel a lot about this game that I feel about the Saints vs. Falcons game, where the underdog will be throwing everything at this game. The one difference is the Saints may have misplaced focus, with a clearly bigger game coming next. The 49ers don't have that. They have to stop this losing streak and win. In many ways, there a ton of similarities between this game and the 49ers @ Rams game back in Week 4, when the 49ers were coming off of two straight losses and had to play a road primetime game. They slaughtered the Rams. If the 49ers have shown anything, it is that they can beat up on bad teams. The Redskins are a bad team, and the 49ers should beat them badly enough.
49ers 34 Redskins 17 (SF -6)
Enjoy the Games!!
