Each year when the schedule comes out, I create an excel spreadsheet here I put in each teams schedule and try to choose a simple winner/loser for each game and see how teams stack up. Now, I'm rarely right (the closest I came was in 2010, picking 9 or the 12 playoff teams correctly preseason), but it is a fun exercise. So, I'm going to do that again, and put my guesses here as my predictions for how the 2nd half goes.
A few notes:
Now the Division-by-Division
AFC East
New England Patriots: 11-5 (4); Despite their big win, I don't consider the Patriots a great team, anything close to their recent ones. They have a tough finishing schedule, with more road games than home ones. It's probably a bad choice to have them losing two straight off a bye, but I don't think they're a great team.
New York Jets: 10-6 (6); I think the Jets finally win two in a row, and actually do that three times. They have an easy schedule. The key for the Jets was to be in striking distance heading into their bye. Not only are they in striking distance, they're the front-runner for this sixth seed.
Miami Dolphins: 7-9; I don't think the Dolphins have a good home field advantage, so picking them to lose a bunch of home games isn't that ridiculous. They have a touch finishing schedule. What I'm not confident at all is picking them to get swept by the Jets. I'm sure the Chargers hope I'm wrong there.
Buffalo Bills: 5-11; The Bills schedule is just too tough. Of course, I'm pessimistic on them, picking them to lose to the Falcons, Steelers and Buccaneers, but hey, those teams have to win games sooner or later.
AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals: 12-4 (2); The Bengals are in the envious position of being able to hold tiebreakers over both the Patriots and Colts, their two most likely competitors for the #2 seed (assuming the AFC West winner gets the #1, or at least a bye). Having the Colts game at home is huge. They have just three road games left, and if they go 2-1 in those games, I don't see how they don't win the division.
Baltimore Ravens: 7-9; I foresee a very strange second half for the Ravens. First, they lose two more games to finish off a five game losing streak, dropping to 3-7, then they'll win four in a row, including a huge win in Detroit (I picked few true upsets, but that is one of them), before dropping their last two. In my scenario, they could win Week 17, as if everything goes according to my plan, that is a meaningless game for the Bengals.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 5-11; The Steelers are 2-6, and their schedule actually gets tougher, with games against Detroit, Cincinnati and Green Bay, when Rodgers is probably back, left. Now, some of these tough ones are at home, but the Steelers aren't going to suddenly get better.
Cleveland Browns: 5-11; Predicting them to go just 1-6 to finish the season might be extreme, but four are on the road (they're only road win is against Minnesota), and the schedule just gets tougher. Outside of Pittsburgh, none of those non-Jaguars games have the Browns as the better team.
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts: 11-5 (3); The Colts are winning this division. That enough is obvious. The key question is can they nab a first round bye. The Colts right now are behind New England even if Colts win next week and level at 7-2 with the Patriots. This is due to their loss to Miami. Most of their common games are left. The way I worked this out, they're eve, with each team sweeping Houston, New England splitting with Miami (to Indy's loss), and both losing to Cincinnati. Where does Indy get the #3 seed, their win over Denver.
Tennessee Titans: 8-8; The Titans were one of the major surprises, and possibly could still be had Jake Locker not gotten hurt. I think the Titans are what they are. They'll beat teams worse than them, they'll lose to those better than them. I won't be surprised if they split with Tennessee.
Houston Texans: 5-11; What a complete disaster of a season for Houston. I think they'll win a few games, mainly because they still have two against Jacksonville. Picking them to lose every other game they play miht not be smart, but how could I pick them at this point.
Jacksonville Jaguars: 0-16; They have the worst DVOA ever through 9 weeks (since 1989). They lost their best offensive player. They're schedule isn't even that easy. The have a shot in that three-game homestand to pull a win, but it would be wrong to pick them.
AFC West
Denver Broncos: 15-1 (1); I think the Broncos win out. They're just better than the Chiefs, and the only game I think is a toss-up is their visit to New England, but Manning rarely loses at night (especially to the Pats, all his wins against New England in recent years have come in primetime). They might sit that Week 17 game, so I guess they could lose there.
Kansas City Chiefs; 12-4 (5); The Chiefs are 9-0, and recent results indicate to me that they are one of the worst 9-0 teams ever, barely worse than the 2006 Colts. I think they'll get a rude awakening, with five games left against the three best AFC QBs this year. I think they beat Indy because I don't know if Indy is ready to win a road game like that. They'll have nothing to play for in Week 17, but I might pick the Chargers even if they did.
San Diego Chargers: 9-7; The Chargers will rue that loss to Washington, as that, to me, will keep them out of the playoffs. I have them going 1-3 against the Chiefs and Broncos, and winning everything else, but that only gives them 9 wins. That could easily be enough, but I have them just outside.
Oakland Raiders: 4-12; Even though I think the Raiders go just 1-7 the rest of the way (note, the 'W' for te vs PHI game is a misprint, but the record counter is correct at 3-5), they'll be one of the more entertaining 4-12 teams in recent memory, a more entertaining and hopeful 4-12 than the Raiders were in 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2012.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: 8-8 (4); This division is so damn hard to forceast. I don't think the Cowboys are going to win any road games apparently (probably went overboard on that one), but for once, the Cowboys get the potential win-and-your-in Week 17 game in their building, and that's the edge I give the Cowboys.
New York Giants: 7-9; From 0-6 to 7-9 is pretty good work. I actually think what will kill them is those road games. The Lions and Chargers are both, to me, better teams, and the Giants seem to have yearly problems with beating the Seahawks. I would love to be right to see the Giants beat both Green Bay and Seattle, but still not accomplish their miracle run to the playoffs.
Philadelphia Eagles: 7-9; There might not be a better Jekyll & Hyde team all decade. What are teh Eagles. The team that scored 10 points in two games, or 49 in 3.25 quarters? Anyway, I'm going with the whole "they'll beat the bad teams and lose to the good ones" routine, except for a loss in Minnesota.
Washington Redskins: 6-10; That win over the Chargers overscores the larger problem with the Redskins. I think they lose on Thursday, and keep losing. I did give them the biggest perceived upset win of the second half, in beating the 49ers.
NFC North
Detroit Lions: 12-4 (2); The Lions are the team that will benefit the most from Rodgers injury, in my opinion. It seems likely that they won't have to face Rodgers on Thanksgiving, and although it would be very Lion-ish for them to lose that game, I can't see it. The rest of their schedule is easy. If they don't lose games they shouldn't this team should win the division.
Green Bay Packers: 10-6; That Aaron Rodgers injury ruins that team. I actually have them going 1-2 in the three games people through Rodgers would miss. I assumed Rodgers was missing the Thanksgiving game as well. If they don't lose to Dallas, they have a chance, but that could easily be Rodgers first game back.
Chicago Bears: 10-6; Having two 10-win teams not make the playoffs in the same conference is not unheard of. In fact, it happened in the NFC just three years ago (in 2010, both Tampa and the Giants went 10-6 and missed the playoffs). The Bears have an easy schedule, but a whole bunch of road games. I can't see them going 4-0 in road games, even if they're the better team on paper in all of them.
Minnesota Vikings: 2-14; That 10-6 season is going to look like more and more of a mirage. I probably could have thrown them a bone and given them a win against Philly at home, but the real issue is that that is not an easy schedule. It's slightly easier since Rodgers won't be there in the Packers game, but they'll have a tough time beating the Packers even without him.
NFC South
Carolina Panthers: 12-4 (3); Yup, I think this is happening. They have a hard schedule, but they're also really, really good. Is it likely that they week @SF/vs.NE? I'm sure most won't pick it, but I think it happens. The Panthers are just a really, really good team.
New Orleans Saints: 11-5 (6); I thought they were playing with fire the whole season with that defense and they are just so bad against the run. That is not a good recipe when you have to play the 49ers, Seahawks and Panthers twice in the remainder of the schedule. The Saints won't fall out of the playoff picture, but at 5-0 and 20 seconds away from beating New England, the #1 seed wasn't out of the question.
Atlanta Falcons: 4-12; They might steal some of these games I predicted them to lose (Green Bay, if Rodgers is still out), but that is a tough schedule and they look so lost without so many of their players. Because they're already out of it, people won't mention them as being as injured as New England or Green Bay, but they are.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2-14; They are better than a normal 0-8 team, but looking at that schedule, who are they beating? They're home games are against tough teams, and their road games are against three teams that are definitely better, and a Rams team that probably is.
NFC West
Seattle Seahawks: 13-3 (1); Ever since they escaped in Week 1 with a win in Carolina, they've been a team of destiny for that #1 seed. They probably should be no better than 6-3 right now, but they are better. That schedule only gets easier these next two weeks. They only have one 10AM PST game left. They should fly to that 1st overall seed.
San Franscisco 49ers: 12-4 (5); We might have the best set of #5 seeds since realignment, with the Chiefs/Broncos and 49ers. I think they're 2nd half will eerily resemble the first half. They start 1-2, with beating one high powered offensive team, and then win five in a row to finish it.
Arizona Cardinals: 9-7; The Cardinals schedule really is easy. The upcoming six games are all winnable. Now, I can't see them winning all six, because after all, they are still the Cardinals, but there is a chance they are 10-4 heading into those last two games. They might even have a shot of beating the 49ers at home.
St. Louis Rams: 5-11; With Sam Bradford playing, this time might have approached .500 again, but probably they would have a similar record, just more close losses. That is a tough schedule. I still like the Rams long term, but this is as tough a division as advertised.
A few notes:
- I'm assuming Aaron Rodgers misses four games (vs.PHI, @NYG, vs.MIN, @DET)
- These won't impact my Weekly picks. They probably will align this week, but either way I'm picking ATS.
- Yeah, that's it.
Now the Division-by-Division
AFC East
New England Patriots: 11-5 (4); Despite their big win, I don't consider the Patriots a great team, anything close to their recent ones. They have a tough finishing schedule, with more road games than home ones. It's probably a bad choice to have them losing two straight off a bye, but I don't think they're a great team.
New York Jets: 10-6 (6); I think the Jets finally win two in a row, and actually do that three times. They have an easy schedule. The key for the Jets was to be in striking distance heading into their bye. Not only are they in striking distance, they're the front-runner for this sixth seed.
Miami Dolphins: 7-9; I don't think the Dolphins have a good home field advantage, so picking them to lose a bunch of home games isn't that ridiculous. They have a touch finishing schedule. What I'm not confident at all is picking them to get swept by the Jets. I'm sure the Chargers hope I'm wrong there.
Buffalo Bills: 5-11; The Bills schedule is just too tough. Of course, I'm pessimistic on them, picking them to lose to the Falcons, Steelers and Buccaneers, but hey, those teams have to win games sooner or later.
AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals: 12-4 (2); The Bengals are in the envious position of being able to hold tiebreakers over both the Patriots and Colts, their two most likely competitors for the #2 seed (assuming the AFC West winner gets the #1, or at least a bye). Having the Colts game at home is huge. They have just three road games left, and if they go 2-1 in those games, I don't see how they don't win the division.
Baltimore Ravens: 7-9; I foresee a very strange second half for the Ravens. First, they lose two more games to finish off a five game losing streak, dropping to 3-7, then they'll win four in a row, including a huge win in Detroit (I picked few true upsets, but that is one of them), before dropping their last two. In my scenario, they could win Week 17, as if everything goes according to my plan, that is a meaningless game for the Bengals.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 5-11; The Steelers are 2-6, and their schedule actually gets tougher, with games against Detroit, Cincinnati and Green Bay, when Rodgers is probably back, left. Now, some of these tough ones are at home, but the Steelers aren't going to suddenly get better.
Cleveland Browns: 5-11; Predicting them to go just 1-6 to finish the season might be extreme, but four are on the road (they're only road win is against Minnesota), and the schedule just gets tougher. Outside of Pittsburgh, none of those non-Jaguars games have the Browns as the better team.
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts: 11-5 (3); The Colts are winning this division. That enough is obvious. The key question is can they nab a first round bye. The Colts right now are behind New England even if Colts win next week and level at 7-2 with the Patriots. This is due to their loss to Miami. Most of their common games are left. The way I worked this out, they're eve, with each team sweeping Houston, New England splitting with Miami (to Indy's loss), and both losing to Cincinnati. Where does Indy get the #3 seed, their win over Denver.
Tennessee Titans: 8-8; The Titans were one of the major surprises, and possibly could still be had Jake Locker not gotten hurt. I think the Titans are what they are. They'll beat teams worse than them, they'll lose to those better than them. I won't be surprised if they split with Tennessee.
Houston Texans: 5-11; What a complete disaster of a season for Houston. I think they'll win a few games, mainly because they still have two against Jacksonville. Picking them to lose every other game they play miht not be smart, but how could I pick them at this point.
Jacksonville Jaguars: 0-16; They have the worst DVOA ever through 9 weeks (since 1989). They lost their best offensive player. They're schedule isn't even that easy. The have a shot in that three-game homestand to pull a win, but it would be wrong to pick them.
AFC West
Denver Broncos: 15-1 (1); I think the Broncos win out. They're just better than the Chiefs, and the only game I think is a toss-up is their visit to New England, but Manning rarely loses at night (especially to the Pats, all his wins against New England in recent years have come in primetime). They might sit that Week 17 game, so I guess they could lose there.
Kansas City Chiefs; 12-4 (5); The Chiefs are 9-0, and recent results indicate to me that they are one of the worst 9-0 teams ever, barely worse than the 2006 Colts. I think they'll get a rude awakening, with five games left against the three best AFC QBs this year. I think they beat Indy because I don't know if Indy is ready to win a road game like that. They'll have nothing to play for in Week 17, but I might pick the Chargers even if they did.
San Diego Chargers: 9-7; The Chargers will rue that loss to Washington, as that, to me, will keep them out of the playoffs. I have them going 1-3 against the Chiefs and Broncos, and winning everything else, but that only gives them 9 wins. That could easily be enough, but I have them just outside.
Oakland Raiders: 4-12; Even though I think the Raiders go just 1-7 the rest of the way (note, the 'W' for te vs PHI game is a misprint, but the record counter is correct at 3-5), they'll be one of the more entertaining 4-12 teams in recent memory, a more entertaining and hopeful 4-12 than the Raiders were in 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2012.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: 8-8 (4); This division is so damn hard to forceast. I don't think the Cowboys are going to win any road games apparently (probably went overboard on that one), but for once, the Cowboys get the potential win-and-your-in Week 17 game in their building, and that's the edge I give the Cowboys.
New York Giants: 7-9; From 0-6 to 7-9 is pretty good work. I actually think what will kill them is those road games. The Lions and Chargers are both, to me, better teams, and the Giants seem to have yearly problems with beating the Seahawks. I would love to be right to see the Giants beat both Green Bay and Seattle, but still not accomplish their miracle run to the playoffs.
Philadelphia Eagles: 7-9; There might not be a better Jekyll & Hyde team all decade. What are teh Eagles. The team that scored 10 points in two games, or 49 in 3.25 quarters? Anyway, I'm going with the whole "they'll beat the bad teams and lose to the good ones" routine, except for a loss in Minnesota.
Washington Redskins: 6-10; That win over the Chargers overscores the larger problem with the Redskins. I think they lose on Thursday, and keep losing. I did give them the biggest perceived upset win of the second half, in beating the 49ers.
NFC North
Detroit Lions: 12-4 (2); The Lions are the team that will benefit the most from Rodgers injury, in my opinion. It seems likely that they won't have to face Rodgers on Thanksgiving, and although it would be very Lion-ish for them to lose that game, I can't see it. The rest of their schedule is easy. If they don't lose games they shouldn't this team should win the division.
Green Bay Packers: 10-6; That Aaron Rodgers injury ruins that team. I actually have them going 1-2 in the three games people through Rodgers would miss. I assumed Rodgers was missing the Thanksgiving game as well. If they don't lose to Dallas, they have a chance, but that could easily be Rodgers first game back.
Chicago Bears: 10-6; Having two 10-win teams not make the playoffs in the same conference is not unheard of. In fact, it happened in the NFC just three years ago (in 2010, both Tampa and the Giants went 10-6 and missed the playoffs). The Bears have an easy schedule, but a whole bunch of road games. I can't see them going 4-0 in road games, even if they're the better team on paper in all of them.
Minnesota Vikings: 2-14; That 10-6 season is going to look like more and more of a mirage. I probably could have thrown them a bone and given them a win against Philly at home, but the real issue is that that is not an easy schedule. It's slightly easier since Rodgers won't be there in the Packers game, but they'll have a tough time beating the Packers even without him.
NFC South
Carolina Panthers: 12-4 (3); Yup, I think this is happening. They have a hard schedule, but they're also really, really good. Is it likely that they week @SF/vs.NE? I'm sure most won't pick it, but I think it happens. The Panthers are just a really, really good team.
New Orleans Saints: 11-5 (6); I thought they were playing with fire the whole season with that defense and they are just so bad against the run. That is not a good recipe when you have to play the 49ers, Seahawks and Panthers twice in the remainder of the schedule. The Saints won't fall out of the playoff picture, but at 5-0 and 20 seconds away from beating New England, the #1 seed wasn't out of the question.
Atlanta Falcons: 4-12; They might steal some of these games I predicted them to lose (Green Bay, if Rodgers is still out), but that is a tough schedule and they look so lost without so many of their players. Because they're already out of it, people won't mention them as being as injured as New England or Green Bay, but they are.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2-14; They are better than a normal 0-8 team, but looking at that schedule, who are they beating? They're home games are against tough teams, and their road games are against three teams that are definitely better, and a Rams team that probably is.
NFC West
Seattle Seahawks: 13-3 (1); Ever since they escaped in Week 1 with a win in Carolina, they've been a team of destiny for that #1 seed. They probably should be no better than 6-3 right now, but they are better. That schedule only gets easier these next two weeks. They only have one 10AM PST game left. They should fly to that 1st overall seed.
San Franscisco 49ers: 12-4 (5); We might have the best set of #5 seeds since realignment, with the Chiefs/Broncos and 49ers. I think they're 2nd half will eerily resemble the first half. They start 1-2, with beating one high powered offensive team, and then win five in a row to finish it.
Arizona Cardinals: 9-7; The Cardinals schedule really is easy. The upcoming six games are all winnable. Now, I can't see them winning all six, because after all, they are still the Cardinals, but there is a chance they are 10-4 heading into those last two games. They might even have a shot of beating the 49ers at home.
St. Louis Rams: 5-11; With Sam Bradford playing, this time might have approached .500 again, but probably they would have a similar record, just more close losses. That is a tough schedule. I still like the Rams long term, but this is as tough a division as advertised.
