Eff Ronnie Hillman. He ruined what would have been a classic ending, to see if Manning could pull another great comeback. Anyway, on to the next week.
They're still terrible. So bad that they couldn't score a TD in another home game. The Jaguars defense has definitely played better the last few weeks, holding two of the better offenses in the NFL to a combined 59 points, but saying that allowing 59 points over two weeks is an improvement shows just how bad this Jaguars team is. It will be hilarious if the only game they win ATS is that Denver game.
31.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-6 = 87-132)
It's hard to remember that the Buccaneers were, at one point, 6-4 last year. They then barely lost to Atlanta at home by 1 point, and followed that by losing by 8 in Denver (game was 31-13 with four minutes to go). Counting those two losses, Schiano's Men have followed up a 6-4 start with a 1-11 run. The only win, of course, was in Week 17 against a resting Falcons team. Greg Schiano, really, may become the posterboy for a terrible College Coach.
30.) Minnesota Vikings (1-5 = 132-181)
Speaking of Schiano, his most spiteful act was the hatchetjob he did against Freeman, but it onverscored the fact that Freeman just isn't that good anymore. He was terrible late last season in Tampa, and looked totally lost in Minnesota. Sure, maybe he doesn't know enough of that offense yet, but then why was he playing? Anyway, when you can't score a single point on offense against what had been one of the worst defenses in the league, where else can you rank? Lovie Smith has to be crazy right now, seeing as this team's miracle run last season cost him his job.
29.) Oakland Raiders (2-4 = 105-132)
Oddly, there aren't really that many terrible teams in the league, so when I rank the Raiders as my 4th worst team, I don't actually think they would make the Top 6 worst teams in most seasons. The Raiders still have some intriguing areas, like a defense that is playing better than anyone would have expected considering they employ the quintessential example of a unit built by spare parts. Terrelle Pryor still offers some excitement as well. The Raiders may be bad, but they have a cogent plan and at least they are exciting.
28.) St. Louis Rams (3-4 = 156-184)
This ranking is definitely impacted by Sam Bradford's ACL tear. Bradford quietly was having a really nice year. Not a great year. Not a year that represents what a team would expect from a #1 overall pick, but by far the best year of his career. He had 14 TDs on the season before he got hurt, which was just one less than Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger combined (which is insane). I have no idea how they'll survive with Kellen Clemens. By the way, I'm shocked Kellen Clemens is still in the NFL. Here's a guy who's claim to fame was probably starting the 2007 Revenge Game between the Jets and Patriots (1st matchup after Spygate broke).
27.) Atlanta Falcons (2-4 = 153-157)
The Falcons got a win, and they won more convincingly than that score, but the Buccaneers are a terrible team. The Falcons still have no real explosiveness of offense unless Harry Douglas does what he did each week going forward. The defense is still manned by mostly no-names. The schedule gets tougher as most of their toughest games are still upcoming. Matt Ryan is quietly having another stellar season, though, which is a nice bone to throw to Atlanta fans.
26.) Washington Redskins (2-4 = 152-184)
What a game. The Redskins did something extremely rare, beating the Bears when Devin Hester returns a punt for a TD. That's only happened three other times (because it's Hester, that's actually really bad since he's returned kicks for TDs way more times than 3). The Redskins offense had by far its best day of the season, but the Bears defense is awful right now. The Broncos defense is not much better right now, so they could do something similar against them this week. The Redskins defense remains terrible, though, which hurts their chances in Denver more than their offense helps.
25.) New York Giants (1-6 = 126-216)
Living in New York, I'm not surprised to hear most Giants fans being totally unexcited about getting their first win. That was ugly. I'll be honest, I didn't watch it. That may be the best decision I've made this season. The Giants have a chance next week to win another game against Philadelphia, but it won't matter. This season is gone, and even in victory, the Giants are inspiring absolutely no confidence, and worse, no joy for their fans.
24.) Houston Texans (2-5 = 122-194)
Case Keenum wasn't bad. He has little pocket presence, but Schaub didn't really have any either. Case Keenum, I would say, wasn't the main reason they lost, but it say something about the talent on the rest of that team that they could hang with KC for most of the game. JJ Watt is still incredible, and the rest of the D-Line is still playing well. The Texans won't disappear, but I think their playoff chances are basically shot by now. They HAVE to beat Indy at home in two weeks to have any shot.
23.) Cleveland Browns (3-4 = 131-156)
The Browns didn't play any worse in Green Bay than it seemed. They just aren't good enough with Brandon Weeden. The scoreline would've been closer had they kicked FGs instead of going for it on 4th so often, but you shouldn't settle for FGs when trying to beat a team as explosive as the Packers. The defense continues to play tough under Ray Horton, and it was nice for Paul Kruger to finally show up. The Browns still aren't a very good team, and their 3-2 start seems like months ago.
22.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-4 = 169-196)
There might not be a more surprising final score than the Eagles, and their good but inefficient offense losing 17-3 to the Cowboys and their bad defense. Of course, getting Nick Foles injured hurts, but Foles was terrible up to that point anyway. It's humorous how bad Matt Barkley was running that offense, throwing 3 picks in just 20 attempts, but it is clear that he is definitely not the answer at QB in Philadelphia. Michael Vick appears to be ready to go next Sunday, and they need him because the division is still there for them, but they can't afford to suffer through more Matt Barkley performances.
21.) Arizona Cardinals (3-4 = 133-161)
That pass protection was decent the first few weeks, and I put most of that on Palmer, who over the years is good at getting rid of the ball (of course, with Palmer in recent years 'getting rid of the ball' meant 'giving it to the other team after a hurried throw'). The pass protection fell to a D'Anthony Batiste level (he was one of the Tackles from last year) in that game. The defense played decently well, but Wilson had some ridiculous throws. The schedule does get really soft in the next six weeks, but unless that pass protection gets tougher, it won't matter.
20.) Miami Dolphins (3-3 = 135-140)
The Dolphins 3-0 start seems like it was a lifetime ago. Ryan Tannehill looked so good back then, but ever since that interception right before the half against the Saints, he's been really bad. In the last three games, Tannehill has completed around 55% of his passes, with 5 TDs and 5 INTs. He better play a lot better this weekend in Gillette for them to have chance to beat New England.
19.) Tennessee Titans (3-4 = 145-146)
The return of Jake Locker didn't go quite as anticipated. On one hand, they had an extremely tough three game run when Locker was out/not yet fully healthy (vs.KC, @SEA, vs.SF), but the offense looks lost right now. It is about now I mention that in two of their wins, their offense was mostly terrible, as they barely moved the ball both in Pittsburgh in Week 1 and then a Hail Mary bailed them out against San Diego. Locker's return might rejuvenate the team later, and they still have both games against Indy left, so there's a chance, but they'll have to hope Locker was just rusty.
18.) Buffalo Bills (3-4 = 159-178)
Good win on the road for a team that hadn't really done much on the road so far. The Bills never blinked in that game after losing their early lead. Their battalion of defensive backs continues to play really well (they lead the league in INTs) and the D-Line is coming close to doing all the things we all expected from them last season. All is right in Bills land, except the upcoming schedule of three tough games coming up. The schedule gets easier after their late bye, setting the Bills up for one of their patented 7-9 seasons.
17.) Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4 = 107-132)
Yes, some of this ranking is me picking them preseason to go 12-4 and make the AFC Title Game. Now, that won't happen. It just won't because it's pretty hard to see them not losing another game, especially when their defense still isn't getting nearly enough pressure on the QB. The offense is getting better though. Le'Veon Bel doesn't have great stats, but he's definitely invigorated that run game. Ben is getting more time to get it to Sanders and Brown.
16.) Chicago Bears (4-3 = 213-206)
The Bears defense masked its serious holes due to injury and retirement with doing what they always do, create turnovers. That stopped for one game against Washington, and they gave up 45 points and yards and TDs at will. Now Briggs is out, and Cutler is out, again. The Bears have made a living off of fast starts and terrible finishes, and it looks like it could easily happen again in 2013. I believe in Marc Trestman long term, but they might have ruined the one part of the defense that was always good in that defense.
15.) Dallas Cowboys (4-3 = 200-155)
Stunning win, really, with DeMarcus Ware out and to still put up that defensive performance against the Eagles. The defense has really bought into the Tampa-2, and they've made it work despite losing a bunch of lineman. The offense has been stagnant the past two weeks, but they've shown what their peak can be. In a lot of ways, they remind me of last year's Ravens, but they won't win as many games, and have a basically zero percent chance of winning the Super Bowl.
14.) New York Jets (4-3 = 134-162)
Really good performance by that defense. They only gave up 20 points on D in the game, 7 coming off of a short field. Completely shut down the Patriots offense, getting to Brady time and time again, holding him again under 50% completion, this time with no bad weather excuse. Sure, they won by some obscure rule, but they were the better team on Sunday Now, if only they could play that way outside the division. The schedule gets tougher, but not so much so that a 9-7 season and sneaking in with the #6 seed is out of the question.
13.) Baltimore Ravens (3-4 = 150-148)
Another tough loss for the Ravens, who have lost three close games so far this season. The Packers loss was more disturbing, but their defense, which had been good apart from Week 1, looked bad in allowing 16 points in 7 drives (not a good per-drive number). The red zone defense has stayed good, though. The offense still needs more players. There is talk of Dennis Pitta returning in about a month, but that might be too late for a team that still has a shot at a Wild Card, or division if Cincinnati stumbles.
12.) San Diego Chargers (4-3 = 168-144)
The Chargers might end up ruing that effing Hail Mary by Jake Locker. They still have all four games against the Chiefs and Broncos, and while the most likely scenario there is going 1-3, that means they either need to hope for some nice tiebreakers (all their losses are to AFC teams) at 9-7, or win all their other games. The Chargers may not make the playoffs, but at least Philip Rivers has continued to be amazing. Imagine how good he would be if he had all his players? Yeah, there are QBs out there succeeding without their top weapons, unlike Tom Brady.
11.) Carolina Panthers (3-3 = 139-83)
Might this be high? Well, Football Outsiders has them even higher by DVOA. Their three wins have all been by 15+ points. Two of their losses have been close games they easily could have won. The schedule isn't too bad, and they could even steal that division with both of their games against the Saints coming late in the season. With the safe assumption that San Francisco stays good and makes the playoffs, the Panthers will have to fight to the death for the #6 seed with the loser of the Lions/Packers dance.
10.) Detroit Lions (4-3 = 186-167)
That is a tough loss, and really just an average performance overall. For the first time all year, the run game gave them nothing, and the Lions had to rely on some ridiculous jump-ball TDs to make it a game. Now, the Bengals are a really good team, and that was a really good game, but the Lions have to win those at home. The division isn't gone with the return leg against the Packers still to come, but they need more production from the other receivers, and need more production from their D-Line.
9.) New England Patriots (5-2 = 152-127)
The Patriots may be 5-2, but they're easily the worst two-loss team in the NFL. Consider: they came like three plays away from being 2-5 right now. Tom Brady's passer rating of 75.6 is almost 10 points below the NFL average, and he's 29th in completion percentage. The defense is missing two of their three best players, and the third was injured last week. Outside of them being extremely well coached, this is a .500 team. They'll probably win that division because they just do, but this is the least scary New England team since 2005. Of course, after saying that, they're going to go 13-3.
8.) Indianapolis Colts (5-2 = 187-131)
I don't know why I'm putting them this low. Really, the teams in the 8-5 range are all interchangeable. The Colts have the best wins, but the worst losses, of all of these teams. This team has beaten two teams ahead of it, but six days before their big win over Denver they looked lazy and slow in their 19-9 loss to San Diego. Those are as much the Colts as the team that's beaten Denver and Seattle at home. With Reggie Wayne out for the year, that either means the team is going to start involving Levon Brazill (who's done nothing) or start running even more. Neither of those options seem appealing. The best part about the Colts is how amazing they could be come 2015.
7.) Green Bay Packers (4-2 = 168-127)
James Jones is out. Randall Cobb is gone for a long time. Jermichael Finley is probably out for the year. I guarantee that Aaron Rodgers won't suddenly have a 55.6% completion percentage or a 75.6 passer rating (yes, I'm taking another shot at Tom Brady). He's survived so far, and that defense is still playing really well even without Clay Matthews. It might not work against better offenses, but they aren't playing too many more of those. They should roll over the Vikings this weekend.
6.) San Francisco 49ers (5-2 = 176-135)
Four straight wins after that 1-2 start, and suddenly no one is claiming that Jim Harbaugh has lost his team. Colin Kaepernick is still not playing too well, but that defense has survived the loss of Aldon Smith really well. The 49ers schedule is quite light going forward, and that loss to Indianapolis seems more explainable each week. They just don't lose to bad teams. Quietly, we could have two of the best Wild Card teams ever since the 32-team expansion in 2002 in the same year.
5.) Cincinnati Bengals (5-2 = 148-135)
They finally beat a good team on the road in the Dalton era. That was a big win, especially after blowing the 21-10 lead, which is exactly what they did in their Week 1 loss to Chicago. The Bengals defense traveled well, getting a ton of pressure on Stafford (didn't sack him, though). That Marvin Jones is turning into a really nice complementary weapon to AJ Green, and Tyler Eifert looks better by the week. The Bengals are a really well built team. If Andy Dalton can sustain his level from the last two weeks, they could easily get a bye.
4.) New Orleans Saints (5-1 = 161-103)
The Saints are an interesting team. With the Seahawks amazing start to the season, the Saints were shuttled into the background. Then, when they got a giant national game, they cough up a 4 point lead by giving Tom Brady three chances to get a comeback. Then they went off to the bye. Let's just say this, there are only three teams in the NFL with a two game lead in their division. The Saints are one of them (Colts, Bengals are the others). The Saints defense has still played awfully well, and while that offense isn't what it was in '09 or '11, if Graham can get back healthy and stay that way, their as good as any offense outside of Denver. Considering how much time was spent on the Saints over the past decade, I've found it interesting how under-the-radar they are.
3.) Kansas City Chiefs (7-0 = 169-81)
The Chiefs, the worst team in the NFL last year, are the last unbeaten team this year. They have many landmines to lose that perfect record, starting two weeks from now in Buffalo. Then comes @DEN, vs.SD, vs.DEN back-to-back-to-back. They've won two games at 17-16, and needed a late push to put away Tennessee with Fitzpatrick. There is one good comparable in recent years, which is Tennessee in 2008, who started 10-0 off the back of a great running game, a game-managing QB (Kerry Collins) and a top notch defense. The Chiefs might go 13-3. But that might not be good enough to win their division.
2.) Seattle Seahawks (6-1 = 191-116)
That was an impressive performance. They destroyed Arizona (final score was closer than the game) in Arizona, which barely anyone does. That offense still is a tad overrated, but Wilson rarely puts the ball in harms way. They can't block, but he's a better thrower on the run than anyone not named Rodgers. The defense is still incredible. Of course, they are getting Percy Harvin back any week. The Seahawks got past their first loss by getting back to basics. Still an excellent team.
1.) Denver Broncos (6-1 = 298-197)
Yes, that was surprising. Manning got terrible protection, some odd playcalling, and fumbles, which have been a problem in his whole tenure in Denver. The last fumble effectively ended the chance at a legendary finish, with Manning trying to pull off another insane comeback in Indianapolis, this time against the Colts. Anyway, the offense had its worst game of the season, and sleepwalked to 33 points. That's not a problem on that side. The defense is still terrible. Von looked understandably rusty, and they should be getting some guys back soon, but the defense is getting more concerning each week. Their magic number should be 27. Keep teams under 27, they'll win basically every game. I just don't know if they can.
I call it "Yah, another NFC East matchup" Sunday, as the division rivalry is the only interesting part of this matchup. They played an uninspiring game three weeks ago. The Giants will pretend that a win here makes them contenders in the division. The Eagles can potentially tie themselves right back up with Dallas, making last weekend's clusterfuck a thing of the past.
5.) Washington Redskins (2-4) @ Denver Broncos (6-1) (4:25 - FOX)
4.) New York Jets (4-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) (4:05 - CBS)
Looking Back at Last Week's Picks
CARDINALS (+6.5) over Seahawks (WRONG = 0-1)
Patriots (-4) over JETS (WRONG = 0-2)
Chargers (-7) over JAGUARS (CORRECT = 1-2)
Bills (+7) over DOLPHINS (CORRECT = 2-2)
Bears (+1) over REDSKINS (WRONG = 2-3)
PANTHERS (-7) over Rams (CORRECT = 3-3)
FALCONS (-6.5) over Buccaneers (CORRECT = 4-3)
EAGLES (-2.5) over Cowboys (CORRECT = 5-3)
LIONS (-2.5) over Bengals (WRONG = 5-4)
TITANS (+3.5) over 49ers (WRONG = 5-5)
Texans (+6.5) over CHIEFS (CORRECT = 6-5)
PACKERS (-10) over Browns (CORRECT = 7-5)
STEELERS (-1.5) over Ravens (CORRECT = 8-5)
Broncos (-6.5) over COLTS (WRONG = 8-6)
GIANTS (-3.5) over Vikings (CORRECT = 9-6)
Year-to-Date: 60-47
Power Rankings
32.) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-7 = 76-222)
They're still terrible. So bad that they couldn't score a TD in another home game. The Jaguars defense has definitely played better the last few weeks, holding two of the better offenses in the NFL to a combined 59 points, but saying that allowing 59 points over two weeks is an improvement shows just how bad this Jaguars team is. It will be hilarious if the only game they win ATS is that Denver game.
31.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-6 = 87-132)
It's hard to remember that the Buccaneers were, at one point, 6-4 last year. They then barely lost to Atlanta at home by 1 point, and followed that by losing by 8 in Denver (game was 31-13 with four minutes to go). Counting those two losses, Schiano's Men have followed up a 6-4 start with a 1-11 run. The only win, of course, was in Week 17 against a resting Falcons team. Greg Schiano, really, may become the posterboy for a terrible College Coach.
30.) Minnesota Vikings (1-5 = 132-181)
Speaking of Schiano, his most spiteful act was the hatchetjob he did against Freeman, but it onverscored the fact that Freeman just isn't that good anymore. He was terrible late last season in Tampa, and looked totally lost in Minnesota. Sure, maybe he doesn't know enough of that offense yet, but then why was he playing? Anyway, when you can't score a single point on offense against what had been one of the worst defenses in the league, where else can you rank? Lovie Smith has to be crazy right now, seeing as this team's miracle run last season cost him his job.
29.) Oakland Raiders (2-4 = 105-132)
Oddly, there aren't really that many terrible teams in the league, so when I rank the Raiders as my 4th worst team, I don't actually think they would make the Top 6 worst teams in most seasons. The Raiders still have some intriguing areas, like a defense that is playing better than anyone would have expected considering they employ the quintessential example of a unit built by spare parts. Terrelle Pryor still offers some excitement as well. The Raiders may be bad, but they have a cogent plan and at least they are exciting.
28.) St. Louis Rams (3-4 = 156-184)
This ranking is definitely impacted by Sam Bradford's ACL tear. Bradford quietly was having a really nice year. Not a great year. Not a year that represents what a team would expect from a #1 overall pick, but by far the best year of his career. He had 14 TDs on the season before he got hurt, which was just one less than Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger combined (which is insane). I have no idea how they'll survive with Kellen Clemens. By the way, I'm shocked Kellen Clemens is still in the NFL. Here's a guy who's claim to fame was probably starting the 2007 Revenge Game between the Jets and Patriots (1st matchup after Spygate broke).
27.) Atlanta Falcons (2-4 = 153-157)
The Falcons got a win, and they won more convincingly than that score, but the Buccaneers are a terrible team. The Falcons still have no real explosiveness of offense unless Harry Douglas does what he did each week going forward. The defense is still manned by mostly no-names. The schedule gets tougher as most of their toughest games are still upcoming. Matt Ryan is quietly having another stellar season, though, which is a nice bone to throw to Atlanta fans.
26.) Washington Redskins (2-4 = 152-184)
What a game. The Redskins did something extremely rare, beating the Bears when Devin Hester returns a punt for a TD. That's only happened three other times (because it's Hester, that's actually really bad since he's returned kicks for TDs way more times than 3). The Redskins offense had by far its best day of the season, but the Bears defense is awful right now. The Broncos defense is not much better right now, so they could do something similar against them this week. The Redskins defense remains terrible, though, which hurts their chances in Denver more than their offense helps.
25.) New York Giants (1-6 = 126-216)
Living in New York, I'm not surprised to hear most Giants fans being totally unexcited about getting their first win. That was ugly. I'll be honest, I didn't watch it. That may be the best decision I've made this season. The Giants have a chance next week to win another game against Philadelphia, but it won't matter. This season is gone, and even in victory, the Giants are inspiring absolutely no confidence, and worse, no joy for their fans.
24.) Houston Texans (2-5 = 122-194)
Case Keenum wasn't bad. He has little pocket presence, but Schaub didn't really have any either. Case Keenum, I would say, wasn't the main reason they lost, but it say something about the talent on the rest of that team that they could hang with KC for most of the game. JJ Watt is still incredible, and the rest of the D-Line is still playing well. The Texans won't disappear, but I think their playoff chances are basically shot by now. They HAVE to beat Indy at home in two weeks to have any shot.
23.) Cleveland Browns (3-4 = 131-156)
The Browns didn't play any worse in Green Bay than it seemed. They just aren't good enough with Brandon Weeden. The scoreline would've been closer had they kicked FGs instead of going for it on 4th so often, but you shouldn't settle for FGs when trying to beat a team as explosive as the Packers. The defense continues to play tough under Ray Horton, and it was nice for Paul Kruger to finally show up. The Browns still aren't a very good team, and their 3-2 start seems like months ago.
22.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-4 = 169-196)
There might not be a more surprising final score than the Eagles, and their good but inefficient offense losing 17-3 to the Cowboys and their bad defense. Of course, getting Nick Foles injured hurts, but Foles was terrible up to that point anyway. It's humorous how bad Matt Barkley was running that offense, throwing 3 picks in just 20 attempts, but it is clear that he is definitely not the answer at QB in Philadelphia. Michael Vick appears to be ready to go next Sunday, and they need him because the division is still there for them, but they can't afford to suffer through more Matt Barkley performances.
21.) Arizona Cardinals (3-4 = 133-161)
That pass protection was decent the first few weeks, and I put most of that on Palmer, who over the years is good at getting rid of the ball (of course, with Palmer in recent years 'getting rid of the ball' meant 'giving it to the other team after a hurried throw'). The pass protection fell to a D'Anthony Batiste level (he was one of the Tackles from last year) in that game. The defense played decently well, but Wilson had some ridiculous throws. The schedule does get really soft in the next six weeks, but unless that pass protection gets tougher, it won't matter.
20.) Miami Dolphins (3-3 = 135-140)
The Dolphins 3-0 start seems like it was a lifetime ago. Ryan Tannehill looked so good back then, but ever since that interception right before the half against the Saints, he's been really bad. In the last three games, Tannehill has completed around 55% of his passes, with 5 TDs and 5 INTs. He better play a lot better this weekend in Gillette for them to have chance to beat New England.
19.) Tennessee Titans (3-4 = 145-146)
The return of Jake Locker didn't go quite as anticipated. On one hand, they had an extremely tough three game run when Locker was out/not yet fully healthy (vs.KC, @SEA, vs.SF), but the offense looks lost right now. It is about now I mention that in two of their wins, their offense was mostly terrible, as they barely moved the ball both in Pittsburgh in Week 1 and then a Hail Mary bailed them out against San Diego. Locker's return might rejuvenate the team later, and they still have both games against Indy left, so there's a chance, but they'll have to hope Locker was just rusty.
18.) Buffalo Bills (3-4 = 159-178)
Good win on the road for a team that hadn't really done much on the road so far. The Bills never blinked in that game after losing their early lead. Their battalion of defensive backs continues to play really well (they lead the league in INTs) and the D-Line is coming close to doing all the things we all expected from them last season. All is right in Bills land, except the upcoming schedule of three tough games coming up. The schedule gets easier after their late bye, setting the Bills up for one of their patented 7-9 seasons.
17.) Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4 = 107-132)
Yes, some of this ranking is me picking them preseason to go 12-4 and make the AFC Title Game. Now, that won't happen. It just won't because it's pretty hard to see them not losing another game, especially when their defense still isn't getting nearly enough pressure on the QB. The offense is getting better though. Le'Veon Bel doesn't have great stats, but he's definitely invigorated that run game. Ben is getting more time to get it to Sanders and Brown.
16.) Chicago Bears (4-3 = 213-206)
The Bears defense masked its serious holes due to injury and retirement with doing what they always do, create turnovers. That stopped for one game against Washington, and they gave up 45 points and yards and TDs at will. Now Briggs is out, and Cutler is out, again. The Bears have made a living off of fast starts and terrible finishes, and it looks like it could easily happen again in 2013. I believe in Marc Trestman long term, but they might have ruined the one part of the defense that was always good in that defense.
15.) Dallas Cowboys (4-3 = 200-155)
Stunning win, really, with DeMarcus Ware out and to still put up that defensive performance against the Eagles. The defense has really bought into the Tampa-2, and they've made it work despite losing a bunch of lineman. The offense has been stagnant the past two weeks, but they've shown what their peak can be. In a lot of ways, they remind me of last year's Ravens, but they won't win as many games, and have a basically zero percent chance of winning the Super Bowl.
14.) New York Jets (4-3 = 134-162)
Really good performance by that defense. They only gave up 20 points on D in the game, 7 coming off of a short field. Completely shut down the Patriots offense, getting to Brady time and time again, holding him again under 50% completion, this time with no bad weather excuse. Sure, they won by some obscure rule, but they were the better team on Sunday Now, if only they could play that way outside the division. The schedule gets tougher, but not so much so that a 9-7 season and sneaking in with the #6 seed is out of the question.
13.) Baltimore Ravens (3-4 = 150-148)
Another tough loss for the Ravens, who have lost three close games so far this season. The Packers loss was more disturbing, but their defense, which had been good apart from Week 1, looked bad in allowing 16 points in 7 drives (not a good per-drive number). The red zone defense has stayed good, though. The offense still needs more players. There is talk of Dennis Pitta returning in about a month, but that might be too late for a team that still has a shot at a Wild Card, or division if Cincinnati stumbles.
12.) San Diego Chargers (4-3 = 168-144)
The Chargers might end up ruing that effing Hail Mary by Jake Locker. They still have all four games against the Chiefs and Broncos, and while the most likely scenario there is going 1-3, that means they either need to hope for some nice tiebreakers (all their losses are to AFC teams) at 9-7, or win all their other games. The Chargers may not make the playoffs, but at least Philip Rivers has continued to be amazing. Imagine how good he would be if he had all his players? Yeah, there are QBs out there succeeding without their top weapons, unlike Tom Brady.
11.) Carolina Panthers (3-3 = 139-83)
Might this be high? Well, Football Outsiders has them even higher by DVOA. Their three wins have all been by 15+ points. Two of their losses have been close games they easily could have won. The schedule isn't too bad, and they could even steal that division with both of their games against the Saints coming late in the season. With the safe assumption that San Francisco stays good and makes the playoffs, the Panthers will have to fight to the death for the #6 seed with the loser of the Lions/Packers dance.
10.) Detroit Lions (4-3 = 186-167)
That is a tough loss, and really just an average performance overall. For the first time all year, the run game gave them nothing, and the Lions had to rely on some ridiculous jump-ball TDs to make it a game. Now, the Bengals are a really good team, and that was a really good game, but the Lions have to win those at home. The division isn't gone with the return leg against the Packers still to come, but they need more production from the other receivers, and need more production from their D-Line.
9.) New England Patriots (5-2 = 152-127)
The Patriots may be 5-2, but they're easily the worst two-loss team in the NFL. Consider: they came like three plays away from being 2-5 right now. Tom Brady's passer rating of 75.6 is almost 10 points below the NFL average, and he's 29th in completion percentage. The defense is missing two of their three best players, and the third was injured last week. Outside of them being extremely well coached, this is a .500 team. They'll probably win that division because they just do, but this is the least scary New England team since 2005. Of course, after saying that, they're going to go 13-3.
8.) Indianapolis Colts (5-2 = 187-131)
I don't know why I'm putting them this low. Really, the teams in the 8-5 range are all interchangeable. The Colts have the best wins, but the worst losses, of all of these teams. This team has beaten two teams ahead of it, but six days before their big win over Denver they looked lazy and slow in their 19-9 loss to San Diego. Those are as much the Colts as the team that's beaten Denver and Seattle at home. With Reggie Wayne out for the year, that either means the team is going to start involving Levon Brazill (who's done nothing) or start running even more. Neither of those options seem appealing. The best part about the Colts is how amazing they could be come 2015.
7.) Green Bay Packers (4-2 = 168-127)
James Jones is out. Randall Cobb is gone for a long time. Jermichael Finley is probably out for the year. I guarantee that Aaron Rodgers won't suddenly have a 55.6% completion percentage or a 75.6 passer rating (yes, I'm taking another shot at Tom Brady). He's survived so far, and that defense is still playing really well even without Clay Matthews. It might not work against better offenses, but they aren't playing too many more of those. They should roll over the Vikings this weekend.
6.) San Francisco 49ers (5-2 = 176-135)
Four straight wins after that 1-2 start, and suddenly no one is claiming that Jim Harbaugh has lost his team. Colin Kaepernick is still not playing too well, but that defense has survived the loss of Aldon Smith really well. The 49ers schedule is quite light going forward, and that loss to Indianapolis seems more explainable each week. They just don't lose to bad teams. Quietly, we could have two of the best Wild Card teams ever since the 32-team expansion in 2002 in the same year.
5.) Cincinnati Bengals (5-2 = 148-135)
They finally beat a good team on the road in the Dalton era. That was a big win, especially after blowing the 21-10 lead, which is exactly what they did in their Week 1 loss to Chicago. The Bengals defense traveled well, getting a ton of pressure on Stafford (didn't sack him, though). That Marvin Jones is turning into a really nice complementary weapon to AJ Green, and Tyler Eifert looks better by the week. The Bengals are a really well built team. If Andy Dalton can sustain his level from the last two weeks, they could easily get a bye.
4.) New Orleans Saints (5-1 = 161-103)
The Saints are an interesting team. With the Seahawks amazing start to the season, the Saints were shuttled into the background. Then, when they got a giant national game, they cough up a 4 point lead by giving Tom Brady three chances to get a comeback. Then they went off to the bye. Let's just say this, there are only three teams in the NFL with a two game lead in their division. The Saints are one of them (Colts, Bengals are the others). The Saints defense has still played awfully well, and while that offense isn't what it was in '09 or '11, if Graham can get back healthy and stay that way, their as good as any offense outside of Denver. Considering how much time was spent on the Saints over the past decade, I've found it interesting how under-the-radar they are.
3.) Kansas City Chiefs (7-0 = 169-81)
The Chiefs, the worst team in the NFL last year, are the last unbeaten team this year. They have many landmines to lose that perfect record, starting two weeks from now in Buffalo. Then comes @DEN, vs.SD, vs.DEN back-to-back-to-back. They've won two games at 17-16, and needed a late push to put away Tennessee with Fitzpatrick. There is one good comparable in recent years, which is Tennessee in 2008, who started 10-0 off the back of a great running game, a game-managing QB (Kerry Collins) and a top notch defense. The Chiefs might go 13-3. But that might not be good enough to win their division.
2.) Seattle Seahawks (6-1 = 191-116)
That was an impressive performance. They destroyed Arizona (final score was closer than the game) in Arizona, which barely anyone does. That offense still is a tad overrated, but Wilson rarely puts the ball in harms way. They can't block, but he's a better thrower on the run than anyone not named Rodgers. The defense is still incredible. Of course, they are getting Percy Harvin back any week. The Seahawks got past their first loss by getting back to basics. Still an excellent team.
1.) Denver Broncos (6-1 = 298-197)
Yes, that was surprising. Manning got terrible protection, some odd playcalling, and fumbles, which have been a problem in his whole tenure in Denver. The last fumble effectively ended the chance at a legendary finish, with Manning trying to pull off another insane comeback in Indianapolis, this time against the Colts. Anyway, the offense had its worst game of the season, and sleepwalked to 33 points. That's not a problem on that side. The defense is still terrible. Von looked understandably rusty, and they should be getting some guys back soon, but the defense is getting more concerning each week. Their magic number should be 27. Keep teams under 27, they'll win basically every game. I just don't know if they can.
Playoff Projections
AFC
1.) Denver Broncos = 14-2
2.) Cincinnati Bengals = 12-4
3.) Indianapolis Colts = 12-4
4.) New England Patriots = 11-5
5.) Kansas City Chiefs = 12-4
6.) San Diego Chargers = 9-7
NFC
1.) Seattle Seahawks = 13-3
2.) New Orleans Saints = 12-4
3.) Green Bay Packers = 11-5
4.) Dallas Cowboys = 9-7
5.) San Francisco 49ers = 11-5
6.) Carolina Panthers = 10-6
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
Byes: Indianapolis (5-2), Tennessee (3-4), Chicago (4-3), San Diego (4-3) Baltimore (3-4), Houston (2-5)
13.) Green Bay Packers (4-2) @ Minnesota Vikings (1-5) (SNF-NBC)
12.) Seattle Seahawks (6-1) @ St. Louis Rams (3-4) (MNF-ESPN)
12.) Seattle Seahawks (6-1) @ St. Louis Rams (3-4) (MNF-ESPN)
11.) Carolina Panthers (3-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-6) (TNF-NFLN)
I call it "Hey, Look! The NFL is trying to let us do other things during nighttime" Weekend, as we get arguably the worst trio of primetime games in eons. None of these games looks fun. If Bradford was healthy, you could talk me into caring about Seahawks @ Rams, but these games are all terrible. Of course, because this is the NFL, one of the terrible home teams will shock us all and win.
10.) San Francisco 49ers (5-2) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (0-7) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "I guess the NFL doesn't want to sell football in England" Sunday, as the 2nd London game gets played featuring a team that has a chance to be one of the worst of all time. Vikings/Steelers was terrible on paper but ended up being a pretty good game. This one looks like the two times when New England went to Old England to play Tampa (38-7) and St. Louis (45-7). This is not fun.
I call it "Hey, Look! The NFL is trying to let us do other things during nighttime" Weekend, as we get arguably the worst trio of primetime games in eons. None of these games looks fun. If Bradford was healthy, you could talk me into caring about Seahawks @ Rams, but these games are all terrible. Of course, because this is the NFL, one of the terrible home teams will shock us all and win.
10.) San Francisco 49ers (5-2) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (0-7) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "I guess the NFL doesn't want to sell football in England" Sunday, as the 2nd London game gets played featuring a team that has a chance to be one of the worst of all time. Vikings/Steelers was terrible on paper but ended up being a pretty good game. This one looks like the two times when New England went to Old England to play Tampa (38-7) and St. Louis (45-7). This is not fun.
9.) Cleveland Browns (3-4) @ Kansas City Chiefs (7-0) (1:00 - CBS)
8.) Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4) @ Oakland Raiders (2-4) (4:05 - CBS)
7.) Atlanta Falcons (2-4) @ Arizona Cardinals (3-4) (4:25 - FOX)
I call it "A few intriguing storylines midst terrible games", as we can see if the Chiefs can hold newly appointed starter Jason Campbell to negative yards, and if Terrelle Pryor can make the Steelers look more slow than normal (weird note, the Raiders have won their last two against Pittsburgh), and if the Cardinals can get back to being the ulimate home team and beat Atlanta. In all honesty, can we just get to Week 12 to get some better matchups.
6.) New York Giants (1-6) @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) (1:00 - FOX)
8.) Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4) @ Oakland Raiders (2-4) (4:05 - CBS)
7.) Atlanta Falcons (2-4) @ Arizona Cardinals (3-4) (4:25 - FOX)
I call it "A few intriguing storylines midst terrible games", as we can see if the Chiefs can hold newly appointed starter Jason Campbell to negative yards, and if Terrelle Pryor can make the Steelers look more slow than normal (weird note, the Raiders have won their last two against Pittsburgh), and if the Cardinals can get back to being the ulimate home team and beat Atlanta. In all honesty, can we just get to Week 12 to get some better matchups.
6.) New York Giants (1-6) @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Yah, another NFC East matchup" Sunday, as the division rivalry is the only interesting part of this matchup. They played an uninspiring game three weeks ago. The Giants will pretend that a win here makes them contenders in the division. The Eagles can potentially tie themselves right back up with Dallas, making last weekend's clusterfuck a thing of the past.
5.) Washington Redskins (2-4) @ Denver Broncos (6-1) (4:25 - FOX)
4.) New York Jets (4-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) (4:05 - CBS)
3.) Buffalo Bills (3-4) @ New Orleans Saints (5-1) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Games that are trumped up because of having nothing to go against" Sunday, as in isolation these are all average games, but look better in such a light week. The Bills are a fun team who can give the Saints a run for 2.5 quarters. The Jets and Bengals get to play the battle of defenses, and the Redskins and Broncos get to play the battle of offenses. Redskins @ Broncos is the FOX National game, which makes this yet another Denver game that is seen by the majority of the country.
2.) Miami Dolphins (3-3) @ New England Patriots (5-2) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "The Game That Looked So Much Better Three Weeks Ago" Sunday, as the Dolphins try to end their 3 game losing streak in New England, a place tehy haven't won in since they unleashed the Wildcat. Honestly, the Patriots are beatable. The Dolphins can win this game. Will they? Probably not, because I don't trust Ryan Tannehill on the road, and they probably will not be able to block the Patriots pass rush at all.
1.) Dallas Cowboys (4-3) @ Detroit Lions (4-3) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Hopefully the Worst #1 Game of the Year" as the Lions and Cowboys play in a nice matchup of 4-3 teams. The Lions need a win to keep pressure on the Packers in the division. The Cowboys gets to maybe silence all the people makng NFC Least jokes by going two games over .500, and three straight wins since the loss against Denver. In all honesty, this should be a fun little game. And yes, I did just have two weeks in a row where my #1 game is a Lions home game. The world should be ending soon.
I call it "Games that are trumped up because of having nothing to go against" Sunday, as in isolation these are all average games, but look better in such a light week. The Bills are a fun team who can give the Saints a run for 2.5 quarters. The Jets and Bengals get to play the battle of defenses, and the Redskins and Broncos get to play the battle of offenses. Redskins @ Broncos is the FOX National game, which makes this yet another Denver game that is seen by the majority of the country.
2.) Miami Dolphins (3-3) @ New England Patriots (5-2) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "The Game That Looked So Much Better Three Weeks Ago" Sunday, as the Dolphins try to end their 3 game losing streak in New England, a place tehy haven't won in since they unleashed the Wildcat. Honestly, the Patriots are beatable. The Dolphins can win this game. Will they? Probably not, because I don't trust Ryan Tannehill on the road, and they probably will not be able to block the Patriots pass rush at all.
1.) Dallas Cowboys (4-3) @ Detroit Lions (4-3) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Hopefully the Worst #1 Game of the Year" as the Lions and Cowboys play in a nice matchup of 4-3 teams. The Lions need a win to keep pressure on the Packers in the division. The Cowboys gets to maybe silence all the people makng NFC Least jokes by going two games over .500, and three straight wins since the loss against Denver. In all honesty, this should be a fun little game. And yes, I did just have two weeks in a row where my #1 game is a Lions home game. The world should be ending soon.
