Year-to-Date: 42-35
New York Giants (0-5) @ Chicago Bears (3-2) (CHI -8)
Just because I have picked the Giants to cover four times, and gone 0-4, the Giants have me remembering my epic streak last year, when I picked the Redskins to lose each of their last seven games. Of course, they won those seven games. Then, I picked them to cover against the Seahawks, and they lost. So, I'm not dumb enough to leave the Giants yet.
Giants 17 Bears 23 (NYG +8)
Oakland Raiders (2-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs (5-0) (KC -8)
The Raiders are one of the bigger surprises of the season considering how people viewed them heading in. Most people saw the Raiders are basically the equivalent of the Jaguars, a team totally bereft of talent. What people didn't see was Terrelle Pryor being a completely legitimate, effective NFL QB. Of course, he hasn't really played the best of defenses. Now he does, as Pryor gets the best pass defense in the NFL. I have to think he is far less effective in this game than any other so far this season. Also, with Darren McFadden out, they won't really be able to take advantage of a relatively weak run defense. The Chiefs offense should be able to make enough plays against the Raiders to cover this line. I can't believe this, but I think the Chiefs go to 6-0.
Raiders 13 Chiefs 24 (KC -8)
Philadelphia Eagles (2-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4) (PHI -2.5)
Nick Foles vs. Mike Glennon. Honestly, this is almost as intriguing as Mike Vick vs. Josh Freeman would have been. Of course, I wouldn't want to watch either version. The Buccaneers defense has been good all year and does match up well. The Bucs have a pretty great rush defense, and Foles might struggle if McCoy is bottled up. Honestly, I like the Buccaneers from a matchup perspective, but I don't like that team at all. They've all but quit on Schiano, and are now in the midst of another controversy with a third member of the team developing a Staph infection. Still, go with my head. I always should.
Eagles 17 Buccaneers 20 (TB +2.5)
Detroit Lions (3-2) @ Cleveland Browns (3-2) (DET -3)
The Lions may or may not have Calvin Johnson, and I'm holding off on this until I know.
Carolina Panthers (1-3) @ Minnesota Vikings (1-3) (MIN -2.5)
The Vikings are starting Matt Cassel again. That may have worked against the Steelers, but the Panthers defense is a level or two above the Steelers defense (there's words I never expected to write). The Panthers can get all sorts of pressure on Cassel and shut down Peterson from running (as they've done to basically everyone all year long). The Vikings did have 17 days to prepare for this, but I just think the Panthers are a better team, record and rest be damned. The fact that they are getting points from the Vikings makes this a pretty simple wager from my side.
Panthers 23 Vikings 13 (CAR +2.5)
St. Louis Rams (2-3) @ Houston Texans (2-3) (HOU -8)
The Rams, the NFL's worst 2-3 team, gets to go to Houston and play the league's most embattled QB. What I would love to bet on is Matt Schaub's pick-six streak ending. There have been studies showing that the length of interception returns are essentially random. No player is more or less likely to throw a pick-six, yet Schaub's have been comical at times. The Rams defense can't really stop the run, which should allow for both Arian Foster and Ben Tate to have good games. I believe Andre Johnson is going to play as well, which should help the Texans offense get back. The line is high for a team that has been a disaster in recent weeks, but let's not forget that the Texans outplayed the Seahawks, badly, for about 50 minutes at home just two weeks ago.
Rams 16 Texans 27 (HOU -8)
Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) @ Buffalo Bills (2-3) (CIN -6)
Bengals defense vs. Thad Lewis? I'll take my chances with the better team with the far better matchup with a line below a TD.
Bengals 24 Bills 16 (CIN -6)
Pittsburgh Steelers (0-4) @ New York Jets (3-2) (PIT -1)
This is a weird line. It opened at Steelers -2.5, which made no sense, and while the public has pounded the Jets since, dropping it a point-and-a-half, the Steelers, who are 0-4 and last seen losing to winless Minnesota, are favorites against a Jets team that is 3-2 and a few plays away from being 4-1. The Jets just played a bad team with a great QB on Monday and beat them. That was on the road. I guess statistics to show that teams off of their byes do well, but I can't see the Steelers winning this game. The Jets are even a safe pick as a number since they're underdogs, which again makes no sense.
Steelers 16 Jets 23 (NYJ -1)
Tennessee Titans (3-2) @ Seattle Seahawks (4-1) (SEA -13.5)
The Titans may be starting a backup QB, but they are starting their starters on defense, and that defense is good. They held the Chiefs at bay until the end. I don't expect Ryan Fitzpatrick to do too well in Seattle, but I think this Titans defense can contain the Seattle offense. If the Seahawks don't get to 30, then covering this line will be tough. I don't think the Seahawks get to 30, as there are reports that Marshawn Lynch will play, but will likely be gimpy with a hamstring pull. I think the Titans score just enough and play just enough defense to cover.
Titans 16 Seahawks 27 (TEN +13.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5) @ Denver Broncos (5-0) (DEN -26.5)
There's no real point in analyzing this game. The Broncos are almost assuredly going to win. Peyton Manning likely will not play all four quarters. That becomes important because I can so easily see a case where the Jags are down 28-30 points and score a TD late to cut in under the number. There is so little historical precedent. Most games that had lines above 20 were decades ago, and those teams usually covered. The most recent example of these lines was the good ol' 2007 Patriots, who would have covered many 20 point spreads, but by the time Vegas started giving them lines this high they had cooled off and didn't cover any of them. I just can't bet on a team to win by this much. It seems unwise.
Jaguars 17 Broncos 41 (JAX +26.5)
Arizona Cardinals (3-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (3-2) (SF -10.5)
The Cardinals are probably the most under-the-radar 3-2 team in the NFL. They have a relatively easy schedule at this point, and I honestly could see them making a random wild card push. All of this basically means that I think this line is too high. The 49ers have been great over the past two weeks, but the Cardinals offer different challenges, from both a familiarity perspective and a defensive perspective. I don't know how the Cardinals will score enough, but I don't think the 49ers defense is as good as the Panthers, for instance. I'm going with my head and saying that this line is way too high. Of course, I felt the same way when the Cardinals went to New Orleans, and was wrong then.
Cardinals 17 49ers 23 (ARZ +10.5)
New Orleans Saints (5-0) @ New England Patriots (4-1) (NE -1)
Fun game here, with the Patriots defense getting their next biggest test, and probably second biggest all year outside of when Denver comes to town in six weeks. The Saints offense is starting to really click after having turnover and protection issues the first few weeks. Jimmy Graham is close to unstoppable. The Patriots offense will most likely be without Gronk, and I can see Brady struggling against Rob Ryan's defense since he normally has (witness his average performance in a 20-16 win over Dallas in 2011). It's odd being slightly confident the Patriots are going to lose. The last time I was confident probably was last year in Baltimore in Week 3, and of course the Ravens won, but by one point. I think it will be more than one point, but even if it is, the Patriots are favored so it won't matter.
Saints 30 Patriots 20 (NO +1)
Washington Redskins (1-3) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-3) (DAL -6)
The line is probably right, if not too low, but I think Washington will be game. I saw RGIII finally playing free and confident against Oakland, and with a week off that might even get better this game. The Redskins defense has played the Cowboys well over the past few years. The Cowboys offense can't possibly play better than it did last week. Of course, it probably will. I have no idea what to do here. This is the pick I am least confident over, so I'm really just taking a shot in the dark.
Redskins 23 Cowboys 31 (DAL -6)
Indianapolis Colts (4-1) @ San Diego Chargers (2-3) (IND -2.5)
What a good game. The Chargers are better than a 2-3 team, with losing two games each by three points and one on a Hail Mary. This is by far the best traditional passer the Colts have faced, and while the Colts have done well defending the pass, I can see Philip Rivers having a big game. Rivers plays better at home, and he has the weapons to attack this Colts defense, especially Danny Woodhead, who I can see having a big game against an overly-aggressive Colts defensive front. The Colts can score points, but they just don't. Their offense is efficient, but at the end they rarely score over 30. I just don't see them clicking fully in this game, both an emotional letdown from last week's stirring win over Seattle and next week's impending showdown with Manning. Tough spot for them, and I think the Chargers steal it.
Colts 24 Chargers 27 (SD +2.5)
Enjoy the Games!!
New York Giants (0-5) @ Chicago Bears (3-2) (CHI -8)
Just because I have picked the Giants to cover four times, and gone 0-4, the Giants have me remembering my epic streak last year, when I picked the Redskins to lose each of their last seven games. Of course, they won those seven games. Then, I picked them to cover against the Seahawks, and they lost. So, I'm not dumb enough to leave the Giants yet.
Giants 17 Bears 23 (NYG +8)
Oakland Raiders (2-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs (5-0) (KC -8)
The Raiders are one of the bigger surprises of the season considering how people viewed them heading in. Most people saw the Raiders are basically the equivalent of the Jaguars, a team totally bereft of talent. What people didn't see was Terrelle Pryor being a completely legitimate, effective NFL QB. Of course, he hasn't really played the best of defenses. Now he does, as Pryor gets the best pass defense in the NFL. I have to think he is far less effective in this game than any other so far this season. Also, with Darren McFadden out, they won't really be able to take advantage of a relatively weak run defense. The Chiefs offense should be able to make enough plays against the Raiders to cover this line. I can't believe this, but I think the Chiefs go to 6-0.
Raiders 13 Chiefs 24 (KC -8)
Philadelphia Eagles (2-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4) (PHI -2.5)
Nick Foles vs. Mike Glennon. Honestly, this is almost as intriguing as Mike Vick vs. Josh Freeman would have been. Of course, I wouldn't want to watch either version. The Buccaneers defense has been good all year and does match up well. The Bucs have a pretty great rush defense, and Foles might struggle if McCoy is bottled up. Honestly, I like the Buccaneers from a matchup perspective, but I don't like that team at all. They've all but quit on Schiano, and are now in the midst of another controversy with a third member of the team developing a Staph infection. Still, go with my head. I always should.
Eagles 17 Buccaneers 20 (TB +2.5)
Detroit Lions (3-2) @ Cleveland Browns (3-2) (DET -3)
The Lions may or may not have Calvin Johnson, and I'm holding off on this until I know.
Carolina Panthers (1-3) @ Minnesota Vikings (1-3) (MIN -2.5)
The Vikings are starting Matt Cassel again. That may have worked against the Steelers, but the Panthers defense is a level or two above the Steelers defense (there's words I never expected to write). The Panthers can get all sorts of pressure on Cassel and shut down Peterson from running (as they've done to basically everyone all year long). The Vikings did have 17 days to prepare for this, but I just think the Panthers are a better team, record and rest be damned. The fact that they are getting points from the Vikings makes this a pretty simple wager from my side.
Panthers 23 Vikings 13 (CAR +2.5)
St. Louis Rams (2-3) @ Houston Texans (2-3) (HOU -8)
The Rams, the NFL's worst 2-3 team, gets to go to Houston and play the league's most embattled QB. What I would love to bet on is Matt Schaub's pick-six streak ending. There have been studies showing that the length of interception returns are essentially random. No player is more or less likely to throw a pick-six, yet Schaub's have been comical at times. The Rams defense can't really stop the run, which should allow for both Arian Foster and Ben Tate to have good games. I believe Andre Johnson is going to play as well, which should help the Texans offense get back. The line is high for a team that has been a disaster in recent weeks, but let's not forget that the Texans outplayed the Seahawks, badly, for about 50 minutes at home just two weeks ago.
Rams 16 Texans 27 (HOU -8)
Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) @ Buffalo Bills (2-3) (CIN -6)
Bengals defense vs. Thad Lewis? I'll take my chances with the better team with the far better matchup with a line below a TD.
Bengals 24 Bills 16 (CIN -6)
Pittsburgh Steelers (0-4) @ New York Jets (3-2) (PIT -1)
This is a weird line. It opened at Steelers -2.5, which made no sense, and while the public has pounded the Jets since, dropping it a point-and-a-half, the Steelers, who are 0-4 and last seen losing to winless Minnesota, are favorites against a Jets team that is 3-2 and a few plays away from being 4-1. The Jets just played a bad team with a great QB on Monday and beat them. That was on the road. I guess statistics to show that teams off of their byes do well, but I can't see the Steelers winning this game. The Jets are even a safe pick as a number since they're underdogs, which again makes no sense.
Steelers 16 Jets 23 (NYJ -1)
Tennessee Titans (3-2) @ Seattle Seahawks (4-1) (SEA -13.5)
The Titans may be starting a backup QB, but they are starting their starters on defense, and that defense is good. They held the Chiefs at bay until the end. I don't expect Ryan Fitzpatrick to do too well in Seattle, but I think this Titans defense can contain the Seattle offense. If the Seahawks don't get to 30, then covering this line will be tough. I don't think the Seahawks get to 30, as there are reports that Marshawn Lynch will play, but will likely be gimpy with a hamstring pull. I think the Titans score just enough and play just enough defense to cover.
Titans 16 Seahawks 27 (TEN +13.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5) @ Denver Broncos (5-0) (DEN -26.5)
There's no real point in analyzing this game. The Broncos are almost assuredly going to win. Peyton Manning likely will not play all four quarters. That becomes important because I can so easily see a case where the Jags are down 28-30 points and score a TD late to cut in under the number. There is so little historical precedent. Most games that had lines above 20 were decades ago, and those teams usually covered. The most recent example of these lines was the good ol' 2007 Patriots, who would have covered many 20 point spreads, but by the time Vegas started giving them lines this high they had cooled off and didn't cover any of them. I just can't bet on a team to win by this much. It seems unwise.
Jaguars 17 Broncos 41 (JAX +26.5)
Arizona Cardinals (3-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (3-2) (SF -10.5)
The Cardinals are probably the most under-the-radar 3-2 team in the NFL. They have a relatively easy schedule at this point, and I honestly could see them making a random wild card push. All of this basically means that I think this line is too high. The 49ers have been great over the past two weeks, but the Cardinals offer different challenges, from both a familiarity perspective and a defensive perspective. I don't know how the Cardinals will score enough, but I don't think the 49ers defense is as good as the Panthers, for instance. I'm going with my head and saying that this line is way too high. Of course, I felt the same way when the Cardinals went to New Orleans, and was wrong then.
Cardinals 17 49ers 23 (ARZ +10.5)
New Orleans Saints (5-0) @ New England Patriots (4-1) (NE -1)
Fun game here, with the Patriots defense getting their next biggest test, and probably second biggest all year outside of when Denver comes to town in six weeks. The Saints offense is starting to really click after having turnover and protection issues the first few weeks. Jimmy Graham is close to unstoppable. The Patriots offense will most likely be without Gronk, and I can see Brady struggling against Rob Ryan's defense since he normally has (witness his average performance in a 20-16 win over Dallas in 2011). It's odd being slightly confident the Patriots are going to lose. The last time I was confident probably was last year in Baltimore in Week 3, and of course the Ravens won, but by one point. I think it will be more than one point, but even if it is, the Patriots are favored so it won't matter.
Saints 30 Patriots 20 (NO +1)
Washington Redskins (1-3) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-3) (DAL -6)
The line is probably right, if not too low, but I think Washington will be game. I saw RGIII finally playing free and confident against Oakland, and with a week off that might even get better this game. The Redskins defense has played the Cowboys well over the past few years. The Cowboys offense can't possibly play better than it did last week. Of course, it probably will. I have no idea what to do here. This is the pick I am least confident over, so I'm really just taking a shot in the dark.
Redskins 23 Cowboys 31 (DAL -6)
Indianapolis Colts (4-1) @ San Diego Chargers (2-3) (IND -2.5)
What a good game. The Chargers are better than a 2-3 team, with losing two games each by three points and one on a Hail Mary. This is by far the best traditional passer the Colts have faced, and while the Colts have done well defending the pass, I can see Philip Rivers having a big game. Rivers plays better at home, and he has the weapons to attack this Colts defense, especially Danny Woodhead, who I can see having a big game against an overly-aggressive Colts defensive front. The Colts can score points, but they just don't. Their offense is efficient, but at the end they rarely score over 30. I just don't see them clicking fully in this game, both an emotional letdown from last week's stirring win over Seattle and next week's impending showdown with Manning. Tough spot for them, and I think the Chargers steal it.
Colts 24 Chargers 27 (SD +2.5)
Enjoy the Games!!
