Looking Back at Last Week's Picks
Giants (+8) over BEARS (CORRECT = 1-0)
CHIEFS (-8) over Raiders (CORRECT = 2-0)
BUCCANEERS (+2.5) over Eagles (WRONG = 2-1)
Lions (-3) over BROWNS (CORRECT = 3-1)
Panthers (+2.5) over VIKINGS (CORRECT = 4-1)
TEXANS (-8) over Rams (WRONG = 4-2)
RAVENS (+3.5) over Packers (CORRECT = 5-2)
Bengals (-6) over BILLS (WRONG = 5-3)
JETS (-1) over Steelers (WRONG = 5-4)
Titans (+13.5) over SEAHAWKS (CORRECT = 6-4)
Jaguars (+26.5) over BRONCOS (CORRECT = 7-4)
Cardinals (+10.5) over 49ERS (WRONG = 7-5)
Saints (+1) over PATRIOTS (WRONG = 7-6)
COWBOYS (-6) over Redskins (CORRECT = 8-6)
CHARGERS (+2.5) over Colts (CORRECT = 9-6)
Week 6: 9-6
Year-to-Date: 51-41
Power Rankings
32.) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6 = 70-198)
Still a terrible team, but they made a game effort on Sunday, playing the Manning offense better than anyone has this year. Strange this oddly close games against the Jaguars followed Peyton to Denver with him, just like losing excruciating playoff games. Anyway, Chad Henne makes that offense so much better than Blaine Gabbert does, same with getting Justin Blackmon back in the fold. Also, I loved the way Gus Bradley played the game, with a fake punt and a 4th down attempt early in their own territory. Have to play that way when you are the massively less talented team, but so few ever do.
31.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5 = 64-101)
Mike Glennon is OK, but I think that team has about given up by now. The one positive abut the Buccaneers was their defense, and it was terrible. The Eagles have a good offense, but it shouldn't have been that good against the Buccaneers. If the defense gives up, the offense won't be far behind, and the coach's head will fall pretty quickly. It is amazing how many teams can make such bad coaching hires time and time again. Firing Jon Gruden after they went from 9-3 to 9-7 back in 2008 seems a little short-sighted now.
30.) Minnesota Vikings (1-4 = 125-158)
Well, Matt Cassel is Matt Cassel. Maybe Josh Freeman can do better, but the season people keep bringing up regarding Freeman's potential potential is his 2010 season. Guess who else had a really good 2010 season? Matt Cassel. I'm with Christian Ponder here. I'm not sure why he was so quickly thrown out as the loser in this battle, so much so they went out and got someone else. Seems like a huge lack of belief in someone that the current regime picked #12 overall just three years ago.
29.) New York Giants (0-6 = 103-209)
Another game, another loss. The Giants finally played decently well on defense, keeping them in that game a lot longer than they should have, but the offense just can't make enough plays. I don't really know what the problem is. The receivers are healthy, the O-Line was good enough, Eli is just off and they don't have enough possessions to toss away three with turnovers. The Giants have no real shot at a division title, but they should at least try to hold onto some respect and not send Tom Coughlin away with a 3-13 type season.
28.) Washington Redskins (1-4 = 107-143)
The defense actually played rather well on Sunday against on offense that was coming off of a 48-point game. They got pressure on Romo, covered well. Did everything they didn't do in their 0-3 start. Of course, the offense still can't get anything going outside of a few Alfred Morris runs in the game. RGIII still can't throw well with his knee, and it might stay that way until 2014. As someone who thought RGIII was overhyped as a rookie, even I am sad that it may be a while before we see the real RGIII agan.
27.) Oakland Raiders (2-4 = 105-132)
The Raiders hung tough for a half, but many teams have with Kansas City this year. Terrelle Pryor played his first really good pass defense and looked unsurprisingly lost, taking way too many sacks and forcing too many throws. Still, he held his composure, blamed himself for everything after the game, and vowed to get better. I still think the Raiders have a keeper in Pryor and their defense is far, far better than I, and let's be honest, anyone else, expected.
26.) Atlanta Falcons (1-4 = 122-134)
This might be low, but why do the Falcons deserve to be any higher right now? They are so aggressively injured it is comical. The injuries in New England and Green Bay will get more play because those are better teams that will have to deal with them through January, but the Falcons have it worse. Julio? Gone. Sam Baker? Gone. Sean Weatherspoon? Gone. Asante Samuel? Hobbled. They are starting rookies everywhere, and not in the good way. Matt Ryan alone keeps this team in games, but they haven't close them out. Yes, they could easily be 4-1 right now, but their future in 2013 is far from bright even had that been their record.
25.) Houston Texans (2-4 = 106-177)
Every year there is a team that starts out slow, losing some catastrophic game, and then collapses in on itself, and I wonder if the collapse would have happened had they just won those early games. My go-to example is the 2010 Vikings, who blew a bunch of winnable games early, and then collapsed into total mediocrity. The 2010 Texans did the same thing. The 2013 Texans may be the poster-child, though. They were 2-1 at one point, and leading the 3-0 Seahawks 20-6. If Matt Schaub doesn't throw the Pikc-6 to Sherman, they probably win that game, go to 3-1, and I seriously doubt they get blown the eff out in back-to-back weeks if that happens. Now, Schaub may have crossed the point of no return in Houston, and Gary Kubiak is on a majorly hot seat.
24.) St. Louis Rams (3-3 = 141-154)
The Rams might be the most non-descript, random closer to .500 team for the 2nd straight year. Last year, they were a tie away from 8-8. This year, despite having awful performances in all three of their losses, they have a win over another .500 team, and drubbed Houston in Houston (and beat the Jags by 14). Sam Bradford is redifining what it means to quietly put up good numbers, with a 13-3 TD-INT ratio. They are still a year or two away from doing anything real, but the Rams aren't the mess they were against Dallas and San Francisco. They probably aren't the juggernaut they appeared to be against Houston either.
23.) Buffalo Bills (2-4 = 136-157)
The Bills have played four home games so far. One was a last-second loss to New England, another a last-second win over Carolina, another a three-point win over Baltimore, and most recently there was an OT loss to Cincinnati after a stirring comeback by the Bills. Basically, the Bills are this years most exciting bad team, with all their home-games being close to must-see TV. They are basically this years' version of the 2011 Cardinals or last year's Lions.
22.) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4 = 88-116)
Am I crazy or can they make a run? I probably am crazy, but 9 wins might get that 2nd Wild Card (I think the loser in the Denver/KC AFC West race gets the #5 seed), and a 8-3 finish isn't crazy. They have a few really tough games left, like trips to Baltimore, New England and Green Bay, but if they even win one of those, the rest of the schedule is manageable. It won't happen, but there is enough talent on offense that they won't disappear like the Giants are in the process of doing.
21.) Cleveland Browns (3-3 = 118-125)
Speaking of AFC North teams that won't disappear, I don't like the Browns chances of being one of those. Brandon Weeden is just not an NFL caliber QB right now (or ever, given that Weeden is already 30). Their offense had a nice run with Hoyer, but even that I thought wouldn't last. Their defense is good enough to keep them in games, but they just don't have enough offensive weapons. I can easily see them falling to a 5-11 season in the end.
20.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-3 = 166-179)
I might be overrating them, but with Dallas' injuries coming into their showdown in Philly, the Eagles could very easily be in sole possession of 1st place come next Monday. Nick Foles seems fine in that offense, and McCoy's running hasn't slowed nearly as much as I expected it to. Their defense will still fare badly against anyone not named 'Hobbled RGIII', 'Eli 'Picks' Manning" or "Mike Glennon", but they might be able to win enough shootouts to steal that division. Once again, they could be the first team to make the playoffs with a rookie head coach off of a 4-12 season to still be underwhelming.
19.) Tennessee Titans (3-3 = 128-115)
I feel so bad watching them play so incredibly hard on offense, so stout on defense at each level, but be saddled with Ryan Fitzpatrick and not Jake Locker. The injury to Locker in the end doesn't seem to be as serious as initially feared, which is great. Watching him reminded me so much of Steve McNair in his prime, with his scrambling, his ability to extend plays, his unconventional, imperfect throwing motion. All of it. This was a prime Fisher-era team, and it could all be ruined because of one hard hit in a blowout win.
18.) Arizona Cardinals (3-3 = 111-127)
The Cardinals defense continues to play really well, confusing Kaepernick just like Seattle did. In a way, they are so much the same team as they were without John Skelton the 2011 version. Palmer is good enough to make their offense better with a higher potential, but so turnover prone that they turn it over more than that Cardinals vintage. This Andre Ellington is a nice little player, shifty back that works well in Bruce Arians offense. Quick look ahead for the Cardinals, here's their upcoming schedule: vs.SEA, vs.ATL, BYE, vs.HOU, @JAX, vs.IND, @PHI, vs.STL, @TEN. That all comes before finishing @SEA, vs.SF. That middle chunk of eight games, they could go 6-2. I'm not saying they will, but they can steal that #6 seed if GB struggles with its injury issues.
17.) New York Jets (3-3 = 104-135)
Huge game this weekend for the Jets, although in a one-week horizon not as big as it would have been had they beaten Pittsburgh. A win closes the gap between them and New England to just one game. The Jets can't afford to lose games to beatable teams like last week. They can't have these emotional lapses. Many people are comparing the Jets to the 2009 version, and while that team had a far better defense (even considering that this is a good defense, that one was a lot better), but unless they get lucky in Week 16-17 of teams laying down, 2009 Jets performance won't be good enough. They need to be the 2010 Jets instead. Of course, being the 2010 Jets doesn't mean losing your 2nd New England game 45-3.
16.) Dallas Cowboys (3-3 = 183-152)
I feel bad for Romo. He's having his best season of his career, but his team is more injured than ever. Losing Ware hurts, because he had transitioned well to the 4-3 and he's never missed a game. I have no idea how the defense adjusts with him out, and Kiffin's scheme is predicated on getting pressure with 4. Also, it would be nice if Miles Austin returns to being a capable NFL player. I mean what the hell happened to him. Random fact: in the infamous Romo bobbled hold game, Miles Austin, then wearing #15, returned a kick for a TD to give the Cowboys a 17-13 lead. This was a good three years before he would do anything in the NFL.
15.) Miami Dolphins (3-2 = 117-114)
The Dolphins had a quiet bye and while they don't get New England falling back to the ranks of the twice-beaten, they do get New England to get even more injured. Their season really starts two Sundays from now, when they go to Foxboro, with the return meeting coming in December in Miami. That's their real test up front, getting to play New England for the first time, possibly at 4-2. Just take care of Buffalo at home. That is all. Let's do it, Ryan!
14.) Baltimore Ravens (3-3 = 134-129)
My favorite stat gets better by the week. The Ravens have allowed 0, 0, 2, 1 and 1 touchdowns on defense in their last five games. They allowed 7 the week before that. Their defensive performance in Week 1 is becoming more and more of an anomaly. Sadly for the Ravens, their offensive performance in January 2013 is seeming like more and more of an even bigger anomaly. The run game has disappeared, the O-Line has regressed to regular season 2012 levels, and the WR corp is too injured to bail them out. Their defense will keep them in the hunt, but unless Flacco wants to start earning that money he's being paid, they won't come close to repeating.
13.) Carolina Panthers (2-3 = 109-68)
Sure, they're under .500, but they've dominated in their two wins, and could easily be 4-1 if they didn't fumble late in Week 1 driving for the game-winning TD, and didn't somehow blow a late 6-point lead to Buffalo in Week 2. The Panthers have a tough schedule left, but made easier with Atlanta's problems. I still think they can also make a run, but with San Francisco seemingly righting itself, and GBs easy schedule in the coming weeks, there might be just one Wild Card spot up for grabs.
12.) San Diego Chargers (3-3 = 144-138)
Big win for the Chargers, who showed some life in their running game and more importantly on defense. They didn't get too much pressure on Luck, but covered exceedingly well. The biggest problem for the Chargers is that they still have all four games against Denver and Kansas City left, and if they go 1-3 in those games, that gives them 6 losses right there. 9-7 might get the #7 seed, but San Diego would do wonders for themselves to either sweep KC or get a win over Denver. Philip Rivers continues to play amazing, given the lack of weapons. People are giving Brady all sorts of credit, but Rivers situation is just as bad and he's playing way better. If Rivers had the defense Brady has, they're 5-1.
11) Chicago Bears (4-2 = 172-161)
I'm really not sure what to think of the Bears. They keep getting turnovers, but in between plays when they get turnovers, their defense has regressed tremendously from 2012. The offense looks good, and Alshon Jeffery has gotten so much better in his third season, but I always have the feeling that Cutler is a few bad games away from imploding. They're in a tough division, and have a tough late schedule. I hate to see it happen again, but I can see the Bears getting off to a 8-4 type start and falling off the playoff pace at the end of the season. Credit to Marc Trestman, though, for keeping what made the Bears very good on defense and doing what he was brought into do: make the offense more efficient.
10.) Cincinnati Bengals (4-2 = 121-111)
When the Bengals were cruising and about to kick a field goal to make it 27-10, I was pretty happy that the Cincinnati I expect to see compete for that #2 seed, the Cincinnati that beat Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady at home, was finally showing itself on the road. Of course, a crazy turn of events on that field goal and many other bad plays after, the Bengals had to pull out an OT win. Andy Dalton had a nice game, and Marvin Jones is turning into a solid accessory outside of AJ Green. Their defense has to travel better, though. They have to find the energy that the fans in 'The Jungle' gives them.
9.) Green Bay Packers (3-2 = 137-114)
The Packers won two straight games scoring 22 and 19 points. These are not the old Packers. Aaron Rodgers stats are still really nice, but outside his incredible Week 2 game against Washington, his numbers haven't been the greatest. What has really helped the Packers is their run game. For years, McCarthy tried to run it too much when they weren't getting anything. Now, they are running for 100+ each week. It helps that AJ Hawk has one of his best games of his career. With Clay Matthews and now Nick Perry out, they'll need those bit players in the Front 7 to continue to play really well.
8.) San Francisco 49ers (4-2 = 145-118)
As much as we shouldn't think of the 49ers as the team that lost two games by a combined 56-10, they also aren't the team that won back-to-back games at 69-14. The 49ers are somewhere in between, a good team that has the potential to be great. Colin Kaepernick's accuracy is still incredibly average. I never thought he was nearly as good a 'thrower' as the media made him out to be, and so far I'm being vindicated in that regard. The defense continues to amaze me in its play without Aldon Smith and Patrick Willis, but we saw holes in that pass defense for the first time against Arizona.
7.) Indianapolis Colts (4-2 = 148-98)
This Sunday may or may not be a teachable moment, but last Monday definitely was. The Colts played flat, played lazy and played like they were thinking of the game to come more than the task at hand. They look just bad. They didn't look overmatched, but out-of-sync. The defense continues to play really well in the red zone, but barely any of their blitzes landed, and they were so iffy in backing those blitzes up with any kind of good coverage. The Colts also still think they should be a run-first team, and they just can't waste away the talents of Luck/Wayne/Hilton/Heyward-Bey/Fleener by running Trent Richardson and Donald Brown for 4.0 yards a carry. That doesn't win in 2013.
6.) New England Patriots (5-1 = 125-97)
Full credit to the New England defense, who stiffened twice following terrible attempts at two-minute drives by Brady. The offense was masterful on that final drive, with one of the most accurate mid-range passes I have ever seen by Tom. That was great. The run game was good, and for a while the offense seemed in sync, but they still can't push it downfield, the receivers still drop a ton of passes, and when the Saints decided to actually run the ball in the second half they did so quite easily. The news that Jerod Mayo is missing the rest of the season is also a bad sign for them. That division is still winnable, and they would still be my pick for the Team Most Likely To Knock Off Denver, but I think they aren't nearly as good as a 5-1 team.
5.) Detroit Lions (4-2 = 162-140)
They overcame a 10-point halftime deficit, shutting out their opponent and winning by 14 with Calvin Johnson playing at 50%. That was impressive. Matthew Stafford is having, to me, the best year of his career and Reggie Bush is such a great fit for that offense. The defense is still not getting as many sacks as I would like, but they are getting consistent pressure and are so much more sound in the secondary than they were in any of the last few years. They have a massive game coming up against another good 4-2 team, but after that the schedule gets noticeably easier.
4.) New Orleans Saints (5-1 = 161-103)
I'm not dropping them much after that loss, mainly because they easily could have won, and winning a road game in New England is not easy. I would hope, for them, that Jimmy Graham can play after the bye, because without Graham, that offense really doesn't have too many game-breakers outside of Sproles and of course, Brees. It will be interesting to see if other teams follow Belichick's lead to press-cover Graham with a good corner. The defense continues to play well, but they are starting to have to manufacture pressure to get to QBs, which is never a good sign.
3.) Kansas City Chiefs (6-0 = 152-65)
They're a great team, the 2011 49ers with the same QB and a fatter coach. They also have a ridiculously easy schedule outside of the Denver games. To me, they have only three tough road games left, and their two hardest out-of-division games are at home (IND, HOU). The Chiefs won't go 16-0 because their margin for error just isn't close to Denver, or some of the other teams that made runs at perfection. In many ways, they could be the 2008 Titans, who started 10-0 before losing two of their next four games to non-playoff teams. That team did end up with the #1 seed, but they might not be able to drop two games and win the division this year.
2.) Seattle Seahawks (5-1 = 157-94)
Sure, it was Ryan Fitzpatrick, but the defense was fantastic, limiting the Titans to nothing all day. The only reason that was a game was whatever the hell happened at the end of the half with the clock management and field goal unit. The Seahawks schedule gets tougher, starting this Thursday with a trip to always dramatic Arizona, but the Seahawks need to keep focus with San Francisco back on the winning path. Russell Wilson had his most accurate game in weeks, ending any potential concerns over his throwing this year. The team is still loaded, but I still worry if their offense is good enough long term.
1.) Denver Broncos (6-0 = 265-158)
The Broncos turned the ball over three times, including an interception that was returned for a TD and a fumble at the 4 yard line, and still won by 16. They had a bad game. They had all the lazy, lackadaisical, looking-ahead problems that Indianapolis had, but they won by 16. Now, the Jaguars are terrible, but the Broncos 'D' game is a 16 point win. I have some worries about that offense falling in love with the dink and dunk like it did at times last year. Go deep more. Manning has the arm this year (cue the 52-yard strike to Decker against Philly). Expand that playbook.
Playoff Projections
AFC
1.) Denver Broncos = 15-1
2.) Cincinnati Bengals = 12-4
3.) New England Patriots = 12-4
4.) Indianapolis Colts = 10-6
5.) Kansas City Chiefs = 12-4
6.) San Diego Chargers = 9-7
NFC
1.) Seattle Seahawks = 13-3
2.) New Orleans Saints = 12-4
3.) Detroit Lions = 11-5
4.) Dallas Cowboys = 9-7
5.) San Francsico 49ers = 11-5
6.) Green Bay Packers = 10-6
Looking Forward to Next Weeks Games
Byes: Oakland (2-4); New Orleans (5-1)
15.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-4) (1:00 - FOX)
14.) San Diego Chargers (3-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "No Matter Where This Game is Played There is a 50% Chance of a Blackout" Sunday, as we get three of the flightiest fanbases (Tampa, San Diego, Jacksonville), and two of the league's un-unbeatens. San Diego should have a nice easy win for once, and Atlanta may get a win, which would be huge for their confidence in Game 1 A.J.J.
13.) St. Louis Rams (3-3) @ Carolina Panthers (2-3) (1:00 - FOX)
12.) Cleveland Browns (3-3) @ Green Bay Packers (3-2) (4:25 - CBS)
11.) Houston Texans (2-4) @ Kansas City Chiefs (6-0) (4:25 - CBS)
10.) Chicago Bears (4-2) @ Washington Redskins (1-4) (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Buffalo Bills (2-4) @ Miami Dolphins (3-3) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "This Week has a Lot of Crap" Sunday, as really? All five of these games? Rams @ Panthers can be somewhat intriguing, but I think the Rams get pounded. Same with Cleveland, Houston and Buffalo, all teams that haven't travelled well at all going to good to very good teams. The Bears and Redskins just seems like a bad game that many people will end up getting in their area because it reads like a nice matchup with two big markets, but it won't be.
8.) Minnesota Vikings (1-4) @ New York Giants (0-6) (MNF - ESPN)
7.) San Francisco 49ers (4-2) @ Tennessee Titans (3-3) (4:05 - FOX)
I call it "I Don't Know What These Two have in Common Other Than Mediocrity" Sunday, as ESPN is saddled with two teams a combined 1-10. The only intrigue there is if Giants fans will set the record for loudest boo if Manning throws an early pick. The 49ers and Titans would have been a really nice game to watch, and I would have been psyched that Philly's FOX station is showing it, had Jake Locker been healthy. The Titans will play hard anyway, and I doubt they get blown out, but it seems inevitable that San Francisco will pull that one out.
6.) Baltimore Ravens (3-3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4) (4:25 - CBS)
5.) Dallas Cowboys (3-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-3) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Divisional Rivalries Make Average Games Good" Sunday, as we get two Divisional games that will probably get National billing on FOX early and CBS late (the Ravens @ Steelers game is the main doubleheader late game). Cowboys @ Eagles is actually for 1st place in the division, which makes it the least fun game for 1st Place since the Rams and Seahawks met in Week 17 of 2010. The Ravens/Steelers games stopped being fun last year with Roethlisberger missed both of them, but with the Ravens milling around .500 and the Steelers doing Steeler-y things last week the game might at least be fun to watch. God knows there's little else with the other late games.
4.) New England Patriots (5-1) @ New York Jets (3-3) (1:00 - CBS)
3.) Seattle Seahawks (5-1) @ Arizona Cardinals (3-3) (TNF - NFLN)
I call it "Divisional Rivalries Make Good Games Great" Sunday, as these two games would be fun regardless of Divisional ties. Obviously, the Patriots/Jets matchup always gets heated, and with the Patriots wounded and the Jets reeling off of last week's loss, both have a lot to play for. The Jets can win this game without needing the Pats to play terribly, but I don't know if they can do it. The Cardinals are great hosts in these night games (MNF game against SF last year excluded) and the crowd should be great. A rare fun TNF game.
2.) Denver Broncos (6-0) @ Indianapolis Colts (4-2) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "The Day No One Ever Expected or Wanted" Sunday, as Peyton Manning returns to Indianapolis as a visitor for the first time. It's been 18 months since Peyton Manning was cut, and I still can't believe it has happened. It has been 32 months since Peyton Manning played a game as a Colt and I can remember it like yesterday. This would be a more meaningful game, and definitely #1, if the Colts won yesterday, but I think the chances of a Denver blowout is very much on the table.
1.) Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) @ Detroit Lions (4-2) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Sometimes the Best Games are Hard to Find" Sunday, as I'm sure outside of the Cincinnati and Detroit regions, very few people will get this game broadcasted to them. These are two good teams, currently leading their divisions, that are built similarly. The Lions have a better offense, the Bengals have a better defense, but they are both built off of potentially dominant front fours, and one great receiver outside and a shifty back inside. Similar teams, both 4-2. The winner gets to stay on top of their division, the loser goes back to the pack. I really hope this is as good of a game as it can be.
Giants (+8) over BEARS (CORRECT = 1-0)
CHIEFS (-8) over Raiders (CORRECT = 2-0)
BUCCANEERS (+2.5) over Eagles (WRONG = 2-1)
Lions (-3) over BROWNS (CORRECT = 3-1)
Panthers (+2.5) over VIKINGS (CORRECT = 4-1)
TEXANS (-8) over Rams (WRONG = 4-2)
RAVENS (+3.5) over Packers (CORRECT = 5-2)
Bengals (-6) over BILLS (WRONG = 5-3)
JETS (-1) over Steelers (WRONG = 5-4)
Titans (+13.5) over SEAHAWKS (CORRECT = 6-4)
Jaguars (+26.5) over BRONCOS (CORRECT = 7-4)
Cardinals (+10.5) over 49ERS (WRONG = 7-5)
Saints (+1) over PATRIOTS (WRONG = 7-6)
COWBOYS (-6) over Redskins (CORRECT = 8-6)
CHARGERS (+2.5) over Colts (CORRECT = 9-6)
Week 6: 9-6
Year-to-Date: 51-41
Power Rankings
32.) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6 = 70-198)
Still a terrible team, but they made a game effort on Sunday, playing the Manning offense better than anyone has this year. Strange this oddly close games against the Jaguars followed Peyton to Denver with him, just like losing excruciating playoff games. Anyway, Chad Henne makes that offense so much better than Blaine Gabbert does, same with getting Justin Blackmon back in the fold. Also, I loved the way Gus Bradley played the game, with a fake punt and a 4th down attempt early in their own territory. Have to play that way when you are the massively less talented team, but so few ever do.
31.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5 = 64-101)
Mike Glennon is OK, but I think that team has about given up by now. The one positive abut the Buccaneers was their defense, and it was terrible. The Eagles have a good offense, but it shouldn't have been that good against the Buccaneers. If the defense gives up, the offense won't be far behind, and the coach's head will fall pretty quickly. It is amazing how many teams can make such bad coaching hires time and time again. Firing Jon Gruden after they went from 9-3 to 9-7 back in 2008 seems a little short-sighted now.
30.) Minnesota Vikings (1-4 = 125-158)
Well, Matt Cassel is Matt Cassel. Maybe Josh Freeman can do better, but the season people keep bringing up regarding Freeman's potential potential is his 2010 season. Guess who else had a really good 2010 season? Matt Cassel. I'm with Christian Ponder here. I'm not sure why he was so quickly thrown out as the loser in this battle, so much so they went out and got someone else. Seems like a huge lack of belief in someone that the current regime picked #12 overall just three years ago.
29.) New York Giants (0-6 = 103-209)
Another game, another loss. The Giants finally played decently well on defense, keeping them in that game a lot longer than they should have, but the offense just can't make enough plays. I don't really know what the problem is. The receivers are healthy, the O-Line was good enough, Eli is just off and they don't have enough possessions to toss away three with turnovers. The Giants have no real shot at a division title, but they should at least try to hold onto some respect and not send Tom Coughlin away with a 3-13 type season.
28.) Washington Redskins (1-4 = 107-143)
The defense actually played rather well on Sunday against on offense that was coming off of a 48-point game. They got pressure on Romo, covered well. Did everything they didn't do in their 0-3 start. Of course, the offense still can't get anything going outside of a few Alfred Morris runs in the game. RGIII still can't throw well with his knee, and it might stay that way until 2014. As someone who thought RGIII was overhyped as a rookie, even I am sad that it may be a while before we see the real RGIII agan.
27.) Oakland Raiders (2-4 = 105-132)
The Raiders hung tough for a half, but many teams have with Kansas City this year. Terrelle Pryor played his first really good pass defense and looked unsurprisingly lost, taking way too many sacks and forcing too many throws. Still, he held his composure, blamed himself for everything after the game, and vowed to get better. I still think the Raiders have a keeper in Pryor and their defense is far, far better than I, and let's be honest, anyone else, expected.
26.) Atlanta Falcons (1-4 = 122-134)
This might be low, but why do the Falcons deserve to be any higher right now? They are so aggressively injured it is comical. The injuries in New England and Green Bay will get more play because those are better teams that will have to deal with them through January, but the Falcons have it worse. Julio? Gone. Sam Baker? Gone. Sean Weatherspoon? Gone. Asante Samuel? Hobbled. They are starting rookies everywhere, and not in the good way. Matt Ryan alone keeps this team in games, but they haven't close them out. Yes, they could easily be 4-1 right now, but their future in 2013 is far from bright even had that been their record.
25.) Houston Texans (2-4 = 106-177)
Every year there is a team that starts out slow, losing some catastrophic game, and then collapses in on itself, and I wonder if the collapse would have happened had they just won those early games. My go-to example is the 2010 Vikings, who blew a bunch of winnable games early, and then collapsed into total mediocrity. The 2010 Texans did the same thing. The 2013 Texans may be the poster-child, though. They were 2-1 at one point, and leading the 3-0 Seahawks 20-6. If Matt Schaub doesn't throw the Pikc-6 to Sherman, they probably win that game, go to 3-1, and I seriously doubt they get blown the eff out in back-to-back weeks if that happens. Now, Schaub may have crossed the point of no return in Houston, and Gary Kubiak is on a majorly hot seat.
24.) St. Louis Rams (3-3 = 141-154)
The Rams might be the most non-descript, random closer to .500 team for the 2nd straight year. Last year, they were a tie away from 8-8. This year, despite having awful performances in all three of their losses, they have a win over another .500 team, and drubbed Houston in Houston (and beat the Jags by 14). Sam Bradford is redifining what it means to quietly put up good numbers, with a 13-3 TD-INT ratio. They are still a year or two away from doing anything real, but the Rams aren't the mess they were against Dallas and San Francisco. They probably aren't the juggernaut they appeared to be against Houston either.
23.) Buffalo Bills (2-4 = 136-157)
The Bills have played four home games so far. One was a last-second loss to New England, another a last-second win over Carolina, another a three-point win over Baltimore, and most recently there was an OT loss to Cincinnati after a stirring comeback by the Bills. Basically, the Bills are this years most exciting bad team, with all their home-games being close to must-see TV. They are basically this years' version of the 2011 Cardinals or last year's Lions.
22.) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4 = 88-116)
Am I crazy or can they make a run? I probably am crazy, but 9 wins might get that 2nd Wild Card (I think the loser in the Denver/KC AFC West race gets the #5 seed), and a 8-3 finish isn't crazy. They have a few really tough games left, like trips to Baltimore, New England and Green Bay, but if they even win one of those, the rest of the schedule is manageable. It won't happen, but there is enough talent on offense that they won't disappear like the Giants are in the process of doing.
21.) Cleveland Browns (3-3 = 118-125)
Speaking of AFC North teams that won't disappear, I don't like the Browns chances of being one of those. Brandon Weeden is just not an NFL caliber QB right now (or ever, given that Weeden is already 30). Their offense had a nice run with Hoyer, but even that I thought wouldn't last. Their defense is good enough to keep them in games, but they just don't have enough offensive weapons. I can easily see them falling to a 5-11 season in the end.
20.) Philadelphia Eagles (3-3 = 166-179)
I might be overrating them, but with Dallas' injuries coming into their showdown in Philly, the Eagles could very easily be in sole possession of 1st place come next Monday. Nick Foles seems fine in that offense, and McCoy's running hasn't slowed nearly as much as I expected it to. Their defense will still fare badly against anyone not named 'Hobbled RGIII', 'Eli 'Picks' Manning" or "Mike Glennon", but they might be able to win enough shootouts to steal that division. Once again, they could be the first team to make the playoffs with a rookie head coach off of a 4-12 season to still be underwhelming.
19.) Tennessee Titans (3-3 = 128-115)
I feel so bad watching them play so incredibly hard on offense, so stout on defense at each level, but be saddled with Ryan Fitzpatrick and not Jake Locker. The injury to Locker in the end doesn't seem to be as serious as initially feared, which is great. Watching him reminded me so much of Steve McNair in his prime, with his scrambling, his ability to extend plays, his unconventional, imperfect throwing motion. All of it. This was a prime Fisher-era team, and it could all be ruined because of one hard hit in a blowout win.
18.) Arizona Cardinals (3-3 = 111-127)
The Cardinals defense continues to play really well, confusing Kaepernick just like Seattle did. In a way, they are so much the same team as they were without John Skelton the 2011 version. Palmer is good enough to make their offense better with a higher potential, but so turnover prone that they turn it over more than that Cardinals vintage. This Andre Ellington is a nice little player, shifty back that works well in Bruce Arians offense. Quick look ahead for the Cardinals, here's their upcoming schedule: vs.SEA, vs.ATL, BYE, vs.HOU, @JAX, vs.IND, @PHI, vs.STL, @TEN. That all comes before finishing @SEA, vs.SF. That middle chunk of eight games, they could go 6-2. I'm not saying they will, but they can steal that #6 seed if GB struggles with its injury issues.
17.) New York Jets (3-3 = 104-135)
Huge game this weekend for the Jets, although in a one-week horizon not as big as it would have been had they beaten Pittsburgh. A win closes the gap between them and New England to just one game. The Jets can't afford to lose games to beatable teams like last week. They can't have these emotional lapses. Many people are comparing the Jets to the 2009 version, and while that team had a far better defense (even considering that this is a good defense, that one was a lot better), but unless they get lucky in Week 16-17 of teams laying down, 2009 Jets performance won't be good enough. They need to be the 2010 Jets instead. Of course, being the 2010 Jets doesn't mean losing your 2nd New England game 45-3.
16.) Dallas Cowboys (3-3 = 183-152)
I feel bad for Romo. He's having his best season of his career, but his team is more injured than ever. Losing Ware hurts, because he had transitioned well to the 4-3 and he's never missed a game. I have no idea how the defense adjusts with him out, and Kiffin's scheme is predicated on getting pressure with 4. Also, it would be nice if Miles Austin returns to being a capable NFL player. I mean what the hell happened to him. Random fact: in the infamous Romo bobbled hold game, Miles Austin, then wearing #15, returned a kick for a TD to give the Cowboys a 17-13 lead. This was a good three years before he would do anything in the NFL.
15.) Miami Dolphins (3-2 = 117-114)
The Dolphins had a quiet bye and while they don't get New England falling back to the ranks of the twice-beaten, they do get New England to get even more injured. Their season really starts two Sundays from now, when they go to Foxboro, with the return meeting coming in December in Miami. That's their real test up front, getting to play New England for the first time, possibly at 4-2. Just take care of Buffalo at home. That is all. Let's do it, Ryan!
14.) Baltimore Ravens (3-3 = 134-129)
My favorite stat gets better by the week. The Ravens have allowed 0, 0, 2, 1 and 1 touchdowns on defense in their last five games. They allowed 7 the week before that. Their defensive performance in Week 1 is becoming more and more of an anomaly. Sadly for the Ravens, their offensive performance in January 2013 is seeming like more and more of an even bigger anomaly. The run game has disappeared, the O-Line has regressed to regular season 2012 levels, and the WR corp is too injured to bail them out. Their defense will keep them in the hunt, but unless Flacco wants to start earning that money he's being paid, they won't come close to repeating.
13.) Carolina Panthers (2-3 = 109-68)
Sure, they're under .500, but they've dominated in their two wins, and could easily be 4-1 if they didn't fumble late in Week 1 driving for the game-winning TD, and didn't somehow blow a late 6-point lead to Buffalo in Week 2. The Panthers have a tough schedule left, but made easier with Atlanta's problems. I still think they can also make a run, but with San Francisco seemingly righting itself, and GBs easy schedule in the coming weeks, there might be just one Wild Card spot up for grabs.
12.) San Diego Chargers (3-3 = 144-138)
Big win for the Chargers, who showed some life in their running game and more importantly on defense. They didn't get too much pressure on Luck, but covered exceedingly well. The biggest problem for the Chargers is that they still have all four games against Denver and Kansas City left, and if they go 1-3 in those games, that gives them 6 losses right there. 9-7 might get the #7 seed, but San Diego would do wonders for themselves to either sweep KC or get a win over Denver. Philip Rivers continues to play amazing, given the lack of weapons. People are giving Brady all sorts of credit, but Rivers situation is just as bad and he's playing way better. If Rivers had the defense Brady has, they're 5-1.
11) Chicago Bears (4-2 = 172-161)
I'm really not sure what to think of the Bears. They keep getting turnovers, but in between plays when they get turnovers, their defense has regressed tremendously from 2012. The offense looks good, and Alshon Jeffery has gotten so much better in his third season, but I always have the feeling that Cutler is a few bad games away from imploding. They're in a tough division, and have a tough late schedule. I hate to see it happen again, but I can see the Bears getting off to a 8-4 type start and falling off the playoff pace at the end of the season. Credit to Marc Trestman, though, for keeping what made the Bears very good on defense and doing what he was brought into do: make the offense more efficient.
10.) Cincinnati Bengals (4-2 = 121-111)
When the Bengals were cruising and about to kick a field goal to make it 27-10, I was pretty happy that the Cincinnati I expect to see compete for that #2 seed, the Cincinnati that beat Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady at home, was finally showing itself on the road. Of course, a crazy turn of events on that field goal and many other bad plays after, the Bengals had to pull out an OT win. Andy Dalton had a nice game, and Marvin Jones is turning into a solid accessory outside of AJ Green. Their defense has to travel better, though. They have to find the energy that the fans in 'The Jungle' gives them.
9.) Green Bay Packers (3-2 = 137-114)
The Packers won two straight games scoring 22 and 19 points. These are not the old Packers. Aaron Rodgers stats are still really nice, but outside his incredible Week 2 game against Washington, his numbers haven't been the greatest. What has really helped the Packers is their run game. For years, McCarthy tried to run it too much when they weren't getting anything. Now, they are running for 100+ each week. It helps that AJ Hawk has one of his best games of his career. With Clay Matthews and now Nick Perry out, they'll need those bit players in the Front 7 to continue to play really well.
8.) San Francisco 49ers (4-2 = 145-118)
As much as we shouldn't think of the 49ers as the team that lost two games by a combined 56-10, they also aren't the team that won back-to-back games at 69-14. The 49ers are somewhere in between, a good team that has the potential to be great. Colin Kaepernick's accuracy is still incredibly average. I never thought he was nearly as good a 'thrower' as the media made him out to be, and so far I'm being vindicated in that regard. The defense continues to amaze me in its play without Aldon Smith and Patrick Willis, but we saw holes in that pass defense for the first time against Arizona.
7.) Indianapolis Colts (4-2 = 148-98)
This Sunday may or may not be a teachable moment, but last Monday definitely was. The Colts played flat, played lazy and played like they were thinking of the game to come more than the task at hand. They look just bad. They didn't look overmatched, but out-of-sync. The defense continues to play really well in the red zone, but barely any of their blitzes landed, and they were so iffy in backing those blitzes up with any kind of good coverage. The Colts also still think they should be a run-first team, and they just can't waste away the talents of Luck/Wayne/Hilton/Heyward-Bey/Fleener by running Trent Richardson and Donald Brown for 4.0 yards a carry. That doesn't win in 2013.
6.) New England Patriots (5-1 = 125-97)
Full credit to the New England defense, who stiffened twice following terrible attempts at two-minute drives by Brady. The offense was masterful on that final drive, with one of the most accurate mid-range passes I have ever seen by Tom. That was great. The run game was good, and for a while the offense seemed in sync, but they still can't push it downfield, the receivers still drop a ton of passes, and when the Saints decided to actually run the ball in the second half they did so quite easily. The news that Jerod Mayo is missing the rest of the season is also a bad sign for them. That division is still winnable, and they would still be my pick for the Team Most Likely To Knock Off Denver, but I think they aren't nearly as good as a 5-1 team.
5.) Detroit Lions (4-2 = 162-140)
They overcame a 10-point halftime deficit, shutting out their opponent and winning by 14 with Calvin Johnson playing at 50%. That was impressive. Matthew Stafford is having, to me, the best year of his career and Reggie Bush is such a great fit for that offense. The defense is still not getting as many sacks as I would like, but they are getting consistent pressure and are so much more sound in the secondary than they were in any of the last few years. They have a massive game coming up against another good 4-2 team, but after that the schedule gets noticeably easier.
4.) New Orleans Saints (5-1 = 161-103)
I'm not dropping them much after that loss, mainly because they easily could have won, and winning a road game in New England is not easy. I would hope, for them, that Jimmy Graham can play after the bye, because without Graham, that offense really doesn't have too many game-breakers outside of Sproles and of course, Brees. It will be interesting to see if other teams follow Belichick's lead to press-cover Graham with a good corner. The defense continues to play well, but they are starting to have to manufacture pressure to get to QBs, which is never a good sign.
3.) Kansas City Chiefs (6-0 = 152-65)
They're a great team, the 2011 49ers with the same QB and a fatter coach. They also have a ridiculously easy schedule outside of the Denver games. To me, they have only three tough road games left, and their two hardest out-of-division games are at home (IND, HOU). The Chiefs won't go 16-0 because their margin for error just isn't close to Denver, or some of the other teams that made runs at perfection. In many ways, they could be the 2008 Titans, who started 10-0 before losing two of their next four games to non-playoff teams. That team did end up with the #1 seed, but they might not be able to drop two games and win the division this year.
2.) Seattle Seahawks (5-1 = 157-94)
Sure, it was Ryan Fitzpatrick, but the defense was fantastic, limiting the Titans to nothing all day. The only reason that was a game was whatever the hell happened at the end of the half with the clock management and field goal unit. The Seahawks schedule gets tougher, starting this Thursday with a trip to always dramatic Arizona, but the Seahawks need to keep focus with San Francisco back on the winning path. Russell Wilson had his most accurate game in weeks, ending any potential concerns over his throwing this year. The team is still loaded, but I still worry if their offense is good enough long term.
1.) Denver Broncos (6-0 = 265-158)
The Broncos turned the ball over three times, including an interception that was returned for a TD and a fumble at the 4 yard line, and still won by 16. They had a bad game. They had all the lazy, lackadaisical, looking-ahead problems that Indianapolis had, but they won by 16. Now, the Jaguars are terrible, but the Broncos 'D' game is a 16 point win. I have some worries about that offense falling in love with the dink and dunk like it did at times last year. Go deep more. Manning has the arm this year (cue the 52-yard strike to Decker against Philly). Expand that playbook.
Playoff Projections
AFC
1.) Denver Broncos = 15-1
2.) Cincinnati Bengals = 12-4
3.) New England Patriots = 12-4
4.) Indianapolis Colts = 10-6
5.) Kansas City Chiefs = 12-4
6.) San Diego Chargers = 9-7
NFC
1.) Seattle Seahawks = 13-3
2.) New Orleans Saints = 12-4
3.) Detroit Lions = 11-5
4.) Dallas Cowboys = 9-7
5.) San Francsico 49ers = 11-5
6.) Green Bay Packers = 10-6
Looking Forward to Next Weeks Games
Byes: Oakland (2-4); New Orleans (5-1)
15.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-4) (1:00 - FOX)
14.) San Diego Chargers (3-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "No Matter Where This Game is Played There is a 50% Chance of a Blackout" Sunday, as we get three of the flightiest fanbases (Tampa, San Diego, Jacksonville), and two of the league's un-unbeatens. San Diego should have a nice easy win for once, and Atlanta may get a win, which would be huge for their confidence in Game 1 A.J.J.
13.) St. Louis Rams (3-3) @ Carolina Panthers (2-3) (1:00 - FOX)
12.) Cleveland Browns (3-3) @ Green Bay Packers (3-2) (4:25 - CBS)
11.) Houston Texans (2-4) @ Kansas City Chiefs (6-0) (4:25 - CBS)
10.) Chicago Bears (4-2) @ Washington Redskins (1-4) (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Buffalo Bills (2-4) @ Miami Dolphins (3-3) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "This Week has a Lot of Crap" Sunday, as really? All five of these games? Rams @ Panthers can be somewhat intriguing, but I think the Rams get pounded. Same with Cleveland, Houston and Buffalo, all teams that haven't travelled well at all going to good to very good teams. The Bears and Redskins just seems like a bad game that many people will end up getting in their area because it reads like a nice matchup with two big markets, but it won't be.
8.) Minnesota Vikings (1-4) @ New York Giants (0-6) (MNF - ESPN)
7.) San Francisco 49ers (4-2) @ Tennessee Titans (3-3) (4:05 - FOX)
I call it "I Don't Know What These Two have in Common Other Than Mediocrity" Sunday, as ESPN is saddled with two teams a combined 1-10. The only intrigue there is if Giants fans will set the record for loudest boo if Manning throws an early pick. The 49ers and Titans would have been a really nice game to watch, and I would have been psyched that Philly's FOX station is showing it, had Jake Locker been healthy. The Titans will play hard anyway, and I doubt they get blown out, but it seems inevitable that San Francisco will pull that one out.
6.) Baltimore Ravens (3-3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4) (4:25 - CBS)
5.) Dallas Cowboys (3-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-3) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Divisional Rivalries Make Average Games Good" Sunday, as we get two Divisional games that will probably get National billing on FOX early and CBS late (the Ravens @ Steelers game is the main doubleheader late game). Cowboys @ Eagles is actually for 1st place in the division, which makes it the least fun game for 1st Place since the Rams and Seahawks met in Week 17 of 2010. The Ravens/Steelers games stopped being fun last year with Roethlisberger missed both of them, but with the Ravens milling around .500 and the Steelers doing Steeler-y things last week the game might at least be fun to watch. God knows there's little else with the other late games.
4.) New England Patriots (5-1) @ New York Jets (3-3) (1:00 - CBS)
3.) Seattle Seahawks (5-1) @ Arizona Cardinals (3-3) (TNF - NFLN)
I call it "Divisional Rivalries Make Good Games Great" Sunday, as these two games would be fun regardless of Divisional ties. Obviously, the Patriots/Jets matchup always gets heated, and with the Patriots wounded and the Jets reeling off of last week's loss, both have a lot to play for. The Jets can win this game without needing the Pats to play terribly, but I don't know if they can do it. The Cardinals are great hosts in these night games (MNF game against SF last year excluded) and the crowd should be great. A rare fun TNF game.
2.) Denver Broncos (6-0) @ Indianapolis Colts (4-2) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "The Day No One Ever Expected or Wanted" Sunday, as Peyton Manning returns to Indianapolis as a visitor for the first time. It's been 18 months since Peyton Manning was cut, and I still can't believe it has happened. It has been 32 months since Peyton Manning played a game as a Colt and I can remember it like yesterday. This would be a more meaningful game, and definitely #1, if the Colts won yesterday, but I think the chances of a Denver blowout is very much on the table.
1.) Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) @ Detroit Lions (4-2) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Sometimes the Best Games are Hard to Find" Sunday, as I'm sure outside of the Cincinnati and Detroit regions, very few people will get this game broadcasted to them. These are two good teams, currently leading their divisions, that are built similarly. The Lions have a better offense, the Bengals have a better defense, but they are both built off of potentially dominant front fours, and one great receiver outside and a shifty back inside. Similar teams, both 4-2. The winner gets to stay on top of their division, the loser goes back to the pack. I really hope this is as good of a game as it can be.
