Year-to-Date: 51-41
I'm writing a long thing on my thoughts on Team Irsay vs. Team Manning/Polian/Dungy/EveryoneWithABrain before this weeks games also, so these are going to be quick.
Seattle Seahawks (5-1)
@ Arizona Cardinals (3-3) (SEA -6.5)
The Cardinals are a strange team at home, pulling out games they probably shouldn't. They rarely get blown out at home, and I don't like where the Seahawks offense is right now. Carson Palmer might get killed, but they somehow fall ass backward into ~20 points, which should easily be enough to cover.
Seahawks 23 Cardinals 20 (ARZ +6.5)
New England Patriots (5-1)
@ New York Jets (3-3) (NE -4)
The Patriots are 4-0 in the 2nd meeting against Rex Ryan's Jets. It should be noted, of course, that the Jets are a glorious 1-and-0 in the 3rd meeting, but this is the 2nd. The last two years they played a 2nd meeting in New York and the Patriots on 37-16 in 2011 and 49-19 last year. I don't think this Patriots team can run on a team like that, but I do still like them to win in a situation where Jets fans and the players seem mighty confident.
Patriots 24 Jets 19 (NE -4)
San Diego Chargers (3-3)
@ Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6) (SD -8)
This is a low line (for the Jags), but I think the Jaguars gave a lot last week in Denver. Probably hard to get up for this game. The Chargers are on a short week, and have to go cross-country, but they have been quite good this year going East (beating Philly, losing to Tennessee on a Hail Mary). I think they win this game easily, as Philip Rivers continues his great 2013 season.
Chargers 31 Jaguars 17 (SD -8)
Buffalo Bills (2-4)
@ Miami Dolphins (3-2) (MIA -7)
The line seems high for an intra-division game. The Bills haven't traveled well, going 0-2 on the road. They did cover in New York, which goes to my point about divisional games. The problem I see is with Cameron Wake back, I don't think Thad Lewis will have the same success in Miami that he had last week at home. I still will go with the Bills because I think the line is high, but I'm nervous about this one.
Bills 17 Dolphins 23 (BUF +7)
Chicago Bears (4-2)
@ Washington Redskins (1-4) (WAS -1)
Why is this line so low? I get that the Bears haven't been too impressive the past few weeks, but they are a far better team in 2013, and the Redskins haven't necessarily played better at home this year. The Bears offense will take advantage of any mistake RGIII makes, and I don't think the Redskins will be able to stop Chicago, especially with Marshall beating DeAngelo all over the field.
Bears 27 Redskins 20 (CHI +1)
St. Louis Rams (3-3)
@ Carolina Panthers (2-3) (CAR -7)
The Panthers can blow out bad teams. That is what they do. They hammered the Giants. The hammered the Vikings, in Minnesota no less. The Rams may be .500, but I think they are barely better than those two, while Carolina is a lot better. The Panthers pass rush should hound Sam Bradford, and if Bradford gets any pressure, I think he folds. Not a great combination for him.
Rams 13 Panthers 24 (CAR -7)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5)
@ Atlanta Falcons (1-4) (ATL -6.5)
High line for a divisional game, especially with Matt Ryan playing without Roddy White for the first time ever. Ryan really has Tony Gonzalez and then a mix of receivers, none better than Harry Douglas. The Buccaneers can keep games close with that defense, and with Mike Glennon replacing Freeman and getting his first road game, I still think that offense is bad enough for me to feel comfortable taking the Falcons by less than a TD.
Buccaneers 16 Falcons 27 (ATL -6.5)
Dallas Cowboys (3-3)
@ Philadelphia Eagles (3-3) (PHI -2.5)
Interesting game, given the relative position of both teams. The Eagles were one of the league's biggest two disappointments after they were blowed the eff out 52-20 in Denver. The Cowboys then gave up 50+ to Denver, but played them a whole lot better, and now, despite neither team having a win over a team that has won more than 1 game outside of the Rams. I have no idea where that was going. Anyway, without Ware and Murray, the Cowboys are far more banged up, and I don't know how the Tampa-2, without their best player, will play against this offense. It is a low line, and I think the Eagles get it.
Cowboys 27 Eagles 31 (PHI -2.5)
Cincinnati Bengals (4-2)
@ Detroit Lions (4-2) (DET -2.5)
Great early game here, and I have no idea where to go. I think the Bengals are better on defense, the Lions better on offense. The Lions have the better run game. The Lions don't have a great HFA crowd, but the Bengals have traveled terribly (losses @CHI, CLE and a OT win in BUF). Low line, so I'll go with the home team who, despite that average crowd, does play better at home.
Bengals 20 Lions 24 (DET -2.5)
San Francisco 49ers (4-2)
@ Tennessee Titans (3-3) (SF -3.5)
With Locker back, the line has dropped a bit. I can't believe Jake Locker is back so quickly, but with him back, I think the talent level between a no healthy-Titans team and an injured-49ers team is not that great. The 49ers, to me, still have some issues on the road and the Titans crowds have been excellent. It might be some random affection towards this Titans bunch, but I think the Titans cover.
49ers 20 Titans 17 (TEN +3.5)
Houston Texans (2-4)
@ Kansas City Chiefs (6-0) (KC -6.5)
I would have thought the line would be higher here. The Texans just got blown out AT HOME by THE RAMS. That happened. Five days ago. The Chiefs are 6-0, and 5-1 ATS. They have been great at home. Their defense should abuse Case Keenum. But the Texans are so ripe to pull an upset, with a team that is more talented than a 2-4 team, with a cause to rally behind. I'll go with the Chiefs, but I think the Texans can be a really live dog, and cover.
Texans 16 Chiefs 20 (HOU +6.5)
Cleveland Browns (3-3)
@ Green Bay Packers (3-2) (GB -10)
Because of their injuries at WR and on defense, the Packers are seen as a vulnerable big favorite, and I guess I understand that. The Browns got a lot of love in their three game win streak (and 4-1 ATS start), but they looked awful in the 2nd half last week with Weeden back. Do I really want to gamble on Brandon Weeden in Lambeau. But then again, that defense is good, Aaron Rodgers takes sacks, and his receivers are basically all gone save for Jordy Nelson. If Joe Haden can remove Nelson, getting enough points to cover might be tricky. In the end, I'm not falling into the trap. Weeden is the type of QB the Packers eat alive.
Browns 17 Packers 31 (GB -10)
Baltimore Ravens (3-3)
@ Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4) (PIT -1.5)
Oh, how to be in 2008 again, when this rivalry was in its modern infancy. I still remember that MNF Game in Weeek 4 in 2008, when the 2-0 Ravens went to Heinz to play the 2-1 Steelers and lost 20-23 in OT. Those were the days. This is the rivalry at its low point (save for when Ben missed both games last year). This line is begging the public to take the Ravens, an underdog here who is better than Pittsburgh, but I like the Steelers. I still think the Ravens get spooked in these matchups.
Ravens 16 Steelers 24 (PIT -1.5)
Denver Broncos (6-0)
@ Indianapolis Colts (4-2) (DEN -6.5)
It's happening. It is actually happening. After all of Irsay's smack talk, and Peyton's 'no comment's, the game will happen come Sunday Night. That is a bad thing for the Colts. Von Miller will abuse the Colts. The secondary of the Broncos might enjoy not having to cover for 5-8 seconds because the pass rush went nowhere. Of course, there is another side of the matchup, the side where Peyton Manning eviscerates this defense because no matter what anyone says, he was betrayed by the Colts. Just like Favre did when he went to Minnesota in 2009, this is a game he just won't lose.
Broncos 38 Colts 21 (DEN -6.5)
Minnesota Vikings (1-4)
@ New York Giants (0-6) (NYG -3.5)
What an awful MNF game. The only real storyline here is how long it would take the Giants fans, if Manning throws another pick or two, to boo the living shit out of Eli Manning. The Giants rush defense has been better of late, so I don't think Peterson goes off, and I don't like this situation for Josh Freeman's first start. The Giants have to win sometime, right. Also, I'm doing this because I, for the first time, picked the Giants not to cover, and of course they cover. Screw this team, my ill-fated NFC Champion pick for 2013.
Vikings 20 Giants 30 (NYG -3.5)
Enjoy the Games!! Because I know I won't be enjoying that SNF one.
