Last Week: 9-6
Year-to-Date: 60-47
Don't have much free time to write this, so it will be short.
Carolina Panthers (3-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-6) (CAR -7)
The Panthers can dominate bad teams. They've shown that. Michael Silver's article that came out yesterday makes me like the chances of the Bucs playing a spirited game in primetime even less. This seems easy.
Panthers 27 Buccaneers 10 (CAR -7)
San Francisco 49ers (5-2) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (0-7) (SF -15.5)
High line, and I can't think of picking a team to cover it. This is a long trip for San Francisco to make also. I have to think they might play a little sluggish in this game. In the end, the line almost compels me to back the Jags to cover in another losing effort.
49ers 31 Jaguars 17 (JAX +15.5)
Cleveland Browns (3-4) @ Kansas City Chiefs (7-0) (KC -7.5)
I hate this line. Why is it so low? What does Vegas know? The Browns are starting their 3rd string QB on the road against the league's best defense. Yes, the Chiefs offense is playing worse by the week, but I still can't really get behind the Browns here. I think the better shot for a first Chiefs loss is next week against Buffalo.
Browns 13 Chiefs 23 (KC -7.5)
Buffalo Bills (3-4) @ New Orleans Saints (5-1) (NO -11.5)
High line here. The Saints have covered all three home games, two rather easily (Miami, Arizona). I think Buffalo is similarly talented to those teams, slightly better offensively and worse defensively. The Saints had a bye to prepare for this game. The big question is the status of Jimmy Graham. To make sure I have this covered, I'll give a pick if Graham plays and if he doesn't.
If Graham plays: Bills 16 Saints 31 (NO -11.5)
If Graham doesn't play: Bills 20 Saints 27 (BUF +11.5)
Miami Dolphins (3-3) @ New England Patriots (5-2) (NE -7)
Interesting game here. The Dolphins have lost three straight coming into this game, including a really lazy performance at home against Buffalo. With Cameron Wake back, the defense should be able to get to Brady like all the other teams have. I just don't see the Dolphins defense being able to do enough to cover this. The Patriots aren't losing to a team on a three-game losing streak at home.
Dolphins 16 Patriots 27 (NE -7)
New York Giants (1-6) @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) (PHI -6)
The line went up quite a bit from their first matchup four weeks ago. That doesn't make a ton of sense since the Eagles are somehow worse now than then, and the Giants are playing better. Scary stuff, if the Giants win this game and Detroit beats Dallas, the Giants will be just two games behind 1st place. Anyway, I like the Giants to cover here against a potentially rusty Michael Vick.
Giants 23 Eagles 27 (NYG +6)
Dallas Cowboys (4-3) @ Detroit Lions (4-3) (DET -3)
My top ranked game of the week just makes me sad. Is this really the best game the NFL has to offer this weekend. Brighter times are ahead, but not next week, when the games might be even worse. As for this game, I think missing Ware and Murray will be more impactful here than last game against the Eagles. The Lions defense will also give the Cowboys a good test with their O-Line. Anyway, I like the Lions to cover a relatively low line.
Cowboys 20 Lions 27 (DET -3)
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4) @ Oakland Raiders (2-4) (PIT -2.5)
This is a low line, given the Steelers were favorites against the Jets on the road just two weeks ago, and were favorites last week at home against Baltimore. To be just 2.5 point favorites seems low to me, especially since the Raiders haven't shown an ability to get after the passer against anyone not named Alex Smith. The Steelers seem like an easy pick. Too easy, maybe...
Steelers 27 Raiders 17 (PIT -2.5)
New York Jets (4-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) (CIN -6)
I probably should have ranked this game higher, an interesting mix of defenses. Can the Jets defense stop AJ Green? Can Nick Mangold do Nick Mangold like things to Geno Atkins? Can Geno Smith survive a really tough road environment that basically swallowed up Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady? Those are my three big questions. I think the Bengals win this game and cover, since I think the answer to all those questions except for the Mangold one (awesome matchup) go the Bengals direction.
Jets 16 Bengals 24 (CIN -6)
Atlanta Falcons (2-4) @ Arizona Cardinals (3-4) (ARZ -2)
The Falcons go to the place that eats QBs alive. The Cardinals picked off Matt Ryan five times last season in Atlanta, imagine what they'll do in Arizona? Anyway, I think for once Carson Palmer may have time. I've picked way too many favorites this week. This could be a problem. It will be a problem. I'm due for a bad week anyway.
Falcons 20 Cardinals 23 (ARZ -2)
Washington Redskins (2-4) @ Denver Broncos (6-1) (DEN -12.5)
This is a high line, but I think the Broncos will come out seeking blood after that last performance. The offense should shred this defense that gave up 31 points to the Bears after Cutler left. The Broncos defense might have problems with RGIII, but another week to integrate Von Miller should help. I'm going all in on this favorites trip.
Redskins 20 Broncos 38 (DEN -12.5)
Green Bay Packers (4-2) @ Minnesota Vikings (1-5) (GB -9.5)
For the first time in a while, I'm picking an underdog to cover. I wouldn't be dumb enough to pick them to win, but there will be a lot of pressure on the Packers here, a road primetime game in a hostile environment without many key weapons against a potentially good pass rush. Also, I like Christian Ponder. I thought he was unfairly benched in Minnesota. I can see him having one last nice game and keeping this close.
Packers 30 Vikings 24 (MIN +9.5)
Seattle Seahawks (6-1) @ St. Louis Rams (3-4) (SEA -12)
I was tempted to take the Rams to cover this one as well, but I remember what happened last week. Teams that play TNF have a higher than normal rate of covering the following week with the extra rest, and the Seahawks destroy teams with bad QBs. I can definitely see the Rams defense giving the Seahawks problems, or even covering with a nice late backdoor TD, but I can't possibly wager on the Rams to actually do any of these things when they're starting Kellen Clemens.
Seahawks 27 Rams 10 (SEA -12)
Somehow try and enjoy these games!!
Year-to-Date: 60-47
Don't have much free time to write this, so it will be short.
Carolina Panthers (3-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-6) (CAR -7)
The Panthers can dominate bad teams. They've shown that. Michael Silver's article that came out yesterday makes me like the chances of the Bucs playing a spirited game in primetime even less. This seems easy.
Panthers 27 Buccaneers 10 (CAR -7)
San Francisco 49ers (5-2) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (0-7) (SF -15.5)
High line, and I can't think of picking a team to cover it. This is a long trip for San Francisco to make also. I have to think they might play a little sluggish in this game. In the end, the line almost compels me to back the Jags to cover in another losing effort.
49ers 31 Jaguars 17 (JAX +15.5)
Cleveland Browns (3-4) @ Kansas City Chiefs (7-0) (KC -7.5)
I hate this line. Why is it so low? What does Vegas know? The Browns are starting their 3rd string QB on the road against the league's best defense. Yes, the Chiefs offense is playing worse by the week, but I still can't really get behind the Browns here. I think the better shot for a first Chiefs loss is next week against Buffalo.
Browns 13 Chiefs 23 (KC -7.5)
Buffalo Bills (3-4) @ New Orleans Saints (5-1) (NO -11.5)
High line here. The Saints have covered all three home games, two rather easily (Miami, Arizona). I think Buffalo is similarly talented to those teams, slightly better offensively and worse defensively. The Saints had a bye to prepare for this game. The big question is the status of Jimmy Graham. To make sure I have this covered, I'll give a pick if Graham plays and if he doesn't.
If Graham plays: Bills 16 Saints 31 (NO -11.5)
If Graham doesn't play: Bills 20 Saints 27 (BUF +11.5)
Miami Dolphins (3-3) @ New England Patriots (5-2) (NE -7)
Interesting game here. The Dolphins have lost three straight coming into this game, including a really lazy performance at home against Buffalo. With Cameron Wake back, the defense should be able to get to Brady like all the other teams have. I just don't see the Dolphins defense being able to do enough to cover this. The Patriots aren't losing to a team on a three-game losing streak at home.
Dolphins 16 Patriots 27 (NE -7)
New York Giants (1-6) @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) (PHI -6)
The line went up quite a bit from their first matchup four weeks ago. That doesn't make a ton of sense since the Eagles are somehow worse now than then, and the Giants are playing better. Scary stuff, if the Giants win this game and Detroit beats Dallas, the Giants will be just two games behind 1st place. Anyway, I like the Giants to cover here against a potentially rusty Michael Vick.
Giants 23 Eagles 27 (NYG +6)
Dallas Cowboys (4-3) @ Detroit Lions (4-3) (DET -3)
My top ranked game of the week just makes me sad. Is this really the best game the NFL has to offer this weekend. Brighter times are ahead, but not next week, when the games might be even worse. As for this game, I think missing Ware and Murray will be more impactful here than last game against the Eagles. The Lions defense will also give the Cowboys a good test with their O-Line. Anyway, I like the Lions to cover a relatively low line.
Cowboys 20 Lions 27 (DET -3)
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4) @ Oakland Raiders (2-4) (PIT -2.5)
This is a low line, given the Steelers were favorites against the Jets on the road just two weeks ago, and were favorites last week at home against Baltimore. To be just 2.5 point favorites seems low to me, especially since the Raiders haven't shown an ability to get after the passer against anyone not named Alex Smith. The Steelers seem like an easy pick. Too easy, maybe...
Steelers 27 Raiders 17 (PIT -2.5)
New York Jets (4-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) (CIN -6)
I probably should have ranked this game higher, an interesting mix of defenses. Can the Jets defense stop AJ Green? Can Nick Mangold do Nick Mangold like things to Geno Atkins? Can Geno Smith survive a really tough road environment that basically swallowed up Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady? Those are my three big questions. I think the Bengals win this game and cover, since I think the answer to all those questions except for the Mangold one (awesome matchup) go the Bengals direction.
Jets 16 Bengals 24 (CIN -6)
Atlanta Falcons (2-4) @ Arizona Cardinals (3-4) (ARZ -2)
The Falcons go to the place that eats QBs alive. The Cardinals picked off Matt Ryan five times last season in Atlanta, imagine what they'll do in Arizona? Anyway, I think for once Carson Palmer may have time. I've picked way too many favorites this week. This could be a problem. It will be a problem. I'm due for a bad week anyway.
Falcons 20 Cardinals 23 (ARZ -2)
Washington Redskins (2-4) @ Denver Broncos (6-1) (DEN -12.5)
This is a high line, but I think the Broncos will come out seeking blood after that last performance. The offense should shred this defense that gave up 31 points to the Bears after Cutler left. The Broncos defense might have problems with RGIII, but another week to integrate Von Miller should help. I'm going all in on this favorites trip.
Redskins 20 Broncos 38 (DEN -12.5)
Green Bay Packers (4-2) @ Minnesota Vikings (1-5) (GB -9.5)
For the first time in a while, I'm picking an underdog to cover. I wouldn't be dumb enough to pick them to win, but there will be a lot of pressure on the Packers here, a road primetime game in a hostile environment without many key weapons against a potentially good pass rush. Also, I like Christian Ponder. I thought he was unfairly benched in Minnesota. I can see him having one last nice game and keeping this close.
Packers 30 Vikings 24 (MIN +9.5)
Seattle Seahawks (6-1) @ St. Louis Rams (3-4) (SEA -12)
I was tempted to take the Rams to cover this one as well, but I remember what happened last week. Teams that play TNF have a higher than normal rate of covering the following week with the extra rest, and the Seahawks destroy teams with bad QBs. I can definitely see the Rams defense giving the Seahawks problems, or even covering with a nice late backdoor TD, but I can't possibly wager on the Rams to actually do any of these things when they're starting Kellen Clemens.
Seahawks 27 Rams 10 (SEA -12)
Somehow try and enjoy these games!!
