Looking Back at Last Week's Picks
49ers (-3.5) over RAMS (CORRECT = 1-0)
Steelers (-3) over VIKINGS (WRONG = 1-1)
BILLS (+3) over Ravens (CORRECT = 2-1)
Colts (-9.5) over JAGUARS (CORRECT = 3-1)
Cardinals (+2.5) over BUCCANEERS (CORRECT = 4-1)
Bengals (-4) over BROWNS (WRONG = 4-2)
Giants (+4.5) over CHIEFS (WRONG = 4-3)
TEXANS (+2) over Seahawks (WRONG = 4-4)
LIONS (-2.5) over Bears (CORRECT = 5-4)
Jets (+3.5) over TITANS (WRONG = 5-5)
CHARGERS (+2) over Cowboys (CORRECT = 6-5)
Redskins (-3.5) over RAIDERS (CORRECT = 7-5)
BRONCOS (-11.5) over Eagles (CORRECT = 8-5)
FALCONS (-2.5) over Patriots (WRONG = 8-6)
Dolphins (+7.5) over SAINTS (WRONG = 8-7)
Week 3: 8-7
Year-to-Date: 35-28
Power Rankings
32.) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4 = 31-129)
The Jaguars not only couldn't cover a 10 point spread at home against a divisional rival, but they didn't cover it by 24 points. How is this team even possibly this bad? Blaine Gabber just gets worse and worse as his career goes on. There could be a future potentially, but it is years away. They need a QB, but there doesn't seem to be any sure thing in the draft.
31.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4 = 44-70)
I'll give Mike Glennon credit for playing good for one half, and I'll give that defense credit for continuing to play well even though their offense is a nothing, but I can't give anyone credit for them blowing a 10 point lead with 8 minutes to go, and not only blowing it but losing the game. Greg Schiano is not long for this NFL world, and honestly, that won't be a bad thing. If anything, it might help other franchises too: college coaches are probably not a good idea.
30.) New York Giants (0-4 = 61-146)
I don't know if I have been more wrong about anything in my time on this blog than picking the Giants to go 12-4 and win the NFC. The amazing thing is if they can beat the Eagles next weekend, and if Denver beats Dallas as it probably should, the Giants would be just one game back in the NFC East. Still, I'm done with this team. They can't block, they can't run, they can't pass consistently. their once great pass rush got old and slow overnight, and their back-seven is injured. Nothing is good right now. Nothing.
29.) Oakland Raiders (1-3 = 71-91)
So, Matt Flynn got two medium sized contracts off of two games, one against a great Patriots team in 2010, the other against a coasting Lions team in Week 17 of 2011. So, how far will some terrible games go in making sure no one ever pays him well again? Flynn was absolutely pathetic, and showed that he was purely a product of that machine offense in Green Bay in those two games. The Redskins are not a good defense, yet they made hay of Matt Flynn.
28.) Washington Redskins (1-3 = 91-112)
Speaking of which, nice to see RGIII have a nice game and nicer to see the team not totally go away after going down 14-0 early. That was a season saving performance, and again, if the Broncos beat the Cowboys next week, the Redskins are just half a game back of 1st place (they have a bye). They could back their way into back-to-back NFC East Titles with an 8-8 record. Stranger things have happened.
27.) St. Louis Rams (1-3 = 69-121)
One of the benefits of playing on Thursday Night, if you lose, people just forget about you after what happens on Sunday. I think people have forgotten how terrible the Rams looked on Thursday Night against the 49ers. Their defense played well for a bit but it is stunning how bad they are against the run. They can rush the passer, but when you have an average at best offense, rush defense becomes a whole lot more important.
26.) Philadelphia Eagles (1-3 = 99-138)
This isn't all Chip Kelly's fault. His offense is gaining yards consistently. Sure, it bogs down in the Red Zone way too much. Sure they turn it over. Sure, if they can't run it consistently, they have to convert way too many 3rd and Longs, but they gain over 6 yards per play. This offense works. The defense is so awful it is hard to comprehend. Peyton Manning did what Peyton Manning does, but they couldn't stop the run, and couldn't stop anyone in the three weeks before.
25.) Pittsburgh Steelers (0-4 = 69-110)
While the Giants may have been my worst prediction, the Steelers going 12-4 and making the AFC Title Game may be my 2nd worst. This isn't Roethlisberger's fault, who has been quite good trying to bring his team back without any help from his running game or O-Line. He loses receivers year by year and keeps that passing game afloat. His defense is terrible, and that makes the record bad, but in that division, hope isn't gone.
24.) Minnesota Vikings (1-3 = 115-123)
That was the game GM INSERT NAME HERE was imagining when he signed Greg Jennings. I'm unsure if this is what he was imagining when he signed Matt Cassel, but I'm sure he will take it. It is amazing that both of Tom Brady's former backups played well during the day and then Brady had his best game of the year the same night. Coicidence? Probably. Either way, it was nice for London to finally get a good game after years of Patriots beating the Rams and Buccaneers, with a sprinkle of the Bears and Denver in 2011 (do you even know who won that game? Neither do I).
23.) New York Jets (2-2 = 68-88)
Maybe I am just underrating the Titans (and with my rank for them, I probably am), but that was a really terrible performance by the Jets defense. Jake Locker was having a really good year, but not that good of a year. As for Geno Smith, he was above average in Week 1, terrible in Week 2, great in Week 3 and now even more terrible in Week 4. How is this different than Mark Sanchez? He may have a higher ceiling, but he has the exact same floor.
22.) Cleveland Browns (2-2 = 64-70)
I'll admit, maybe Mike Lombardi can be a decent GM. Or... maybe Brian Hoyer is living in a dream world. Either them or the Bills will be 3-2 in two days. That is astounding. Their defense has made a pretty good transition to a 3-4, and it actually has been most of the young guys and not Paul Kruger making the difference. Jabaal Sheard has come back strongly, and Barkevious is as good as that name is.
21.) Arizona Cardinals (2-2 = 69-89)
The Cardinals won a game that was basically a copy of all the random games the Cardinals were able to pull out of their ass back in 2011 (when they ended 6-2 and finished 8-8). It was nice to see Larry Fitzgerald absolutely destroy Darrelle Revis on that game tying TD after the opposite happened on the interception. Oh, and Patrick Peterson is a bad, bad man. He was one of the few 'sure thing' corners that actually has been about as good as advertised.
20.) Atlanta Falcons (1-3 = 94-104)
Maybe I am overreacting, because if they were better in the red zone, they might beat New England, but they have a lot of problems. Their O-Line is terrible, and I guess Matt Ryan didn't get the 'make a bad O-Line look good' gene from Peyton Manning. What Ryan did get is the 'improbably comeback against the Patriots' gene, but couldn't finish it off. The defense has loads of problems as well, but most of those problems are having too many rookies. I guess they're building for 2016, when they hope Drew Brees will finally be human again.
19.) Dallas Cowboys (2-2 = 104-85)
Someone is winning that division, and the Cowboys are still my pick to win the division (obviously, they were not my preseason pick), but they might do it at 8-8. Random point: every offseason when the schedule comes out I pick all the games to get my first real projected standings. I had the Broncos pegged at 14-2, and my two losses for them were Week 17 in a rest-o-rama against Oakland, and their trip to Dallas. Needless to say, I'm rethinking that pick.
18.) Buffalo Bills (2-2 = 88-93)
Is there a team that can look so good on defense at times and still be average at best defensively year after year. They've had high-pick games of high profile players in the past, like a 5-pick performance against Romo in 2007, or the four-pick game against Brady in 2011 (their first win against New England since 1934). This was another one. The offense looked bad, and the running backs are hurt again, but as for Cleveland, they have a nice chance at being 3-2 in two days. Problem is in a surprisingly good AFC, 3-2 isn't all that special.
17.) Baltimore Ravens (2-2 = 91-87)
The Ravens gave up 35 points in the 2nd Half to Denver in Week 1. They've given up 38 points in the three games since. I love bringing up how ridiculous that Denver performance is because as the season goes on, I think that Denver performance is going to be more and more of an outlier for Baltimore. It is quite obvious that the problem in Baltimore is not losing Lewis and Reed (and Kruger/Williams/Ellerbe/Pollard). The defense is still good. The offense is close to plain bad right now.
16.) Tennessee Titans (3-1 = 98-69)
I do feel bad putting them this low, but they really should be 2-2 (that win over San Diego was the yearly 'bullshit semi-hail mary win.' Of course, they probably should have beaten the Texans, so in the end they're fine at 3-1. Part of the reason I'm docking them is Locker is out. Now, Fitzpatrick can be good in some games, but they have KC/@SEA/SF coming up before a bye. That is scary. Really just an unfortunate situation. I should mention that I compared them to the '99 Titans in my Picks, and that year Steve McNair missed a handfull of games as well.
15.) Houston Texans (2-2 = 90-105)
Talk about a choke. There were so many things wrong with the infamous pick-six. First, they had run well all game, why not just run it on 3rd and 4. Second, why call something that closes half the field. I hate bootlegs and sprint-options on big plays like that (same thing with Atlanta's terrible 4th and 2 against NE). Finally, for Schaub, how can you throw it? Take the sack, punt it away and trust your defense, which held them down all game, to finish it off.
14.) San Diego Chargers (2-2 = 108-102)
Not an ounce of panic when down 21-10 before the half. Not a second. That was impressive. Sure, they got fortunate with that forced fumble right at the goal line, but the Chargers may well win even had the game been cut to 30-28. Philip Rivers is playing so damn well right now. If not for Peyton Manning basically doing at the QB position the equivalent of what JJ Watt did at 3-4 DE last year, Philip Rivers would be talked about as a serious MVP candidate right now. He's playing basically at the level he was from 2008-2010. It is amazing what Chargers Coordinator Ken Whisenhunt can do with old, supposedly past-their-peak QBs.
13.) Carolina Panthers (1-2 = 68-36)
I don't think the Panthers would have wanted a bye right after their 38-0 win, and now they get a trip to always frisky Arizona for their post-bye game. That is a tough break. Either way, Carolina is still one of the league's best defenses and although the Giants defense is putrid, the Panthers have to take something from that game in that their offense looked alive again. Particularly the passing game, as Cam seems to be getting more comfortable with guys not named 'Steve Smith.' He'll need to when Peterson takes away Smith.
12.) Miami Dolphins (3-1 = 91-91)
11.) San Francisco 49ers (2-2 = 79-95)
Another possible trend I want to investigate: do teams who win on TNF play well the next week? I feel like 'momentum' (which is a precarious idea anyway) is easy to loose when you don't play for 10 days. Houston will be a nice test for the 49ers. The Texans can do to them defensively what the Colts did, and their offense is actually quite similar to Indianapolis as well. They might miss Aldon Smith more in this game, especially if Duane Brown is back for the Texans.
10) Indianapolis Colts (3-1 = 105-51)
Yeah, they are currently 4th in points allowed in the NFL. Sure, it helps to play the Jaguars (#1 in that stat also played the Jaguars), but the Colts did something they were incapable of doing last year when they were the worst 11-5 team ever. The Colts played a team they were markedly better than, and they hammered them.
9.) Chicago Bears (3-1 = 127-114)
A nice flurry of points made the score respectable, but to me they were massively outplayed by Detroit. Now, that was just a terrible game from Cutler and he does that a few times a year. When he does, they have no chance. What is good is their run game is still going strong, the players outside of Marshall are still making plays, and their defense is still making plays. Of course, that defense is also hemorrhaging yards, which they didn't do last year.
8.) Cincinnati Bengals (2-2 = 81-81)
Strange performance, and it is only my biased, slanted belief that they will right themselves keeping them up this high in my power rankings. Andy Dalton, I don't think, has played an above average road game in his life (he probably has, I just don't remember it). The Bengals the past two years beat basically all the bad teams they played and struggled mightily against good ones, but this Bengals team has been the opposite. They struggled mightily against the Browns but beat the Packers. I honestly think they have a decent shot to beat New England this weekend as well. That defense is still really good.
7.) Green Bay Packers (1-2 = 96-88)
The Packers started last season 2-3, let's not remember. By Week 17, they were a win against Minnesota away from being the #2 seed (of course, they lost, which allowed the Vikings to make the playoffs instead of Chicago, probably costing Lovie Smith his job and Peyton Manning a 5th MVP). I still think something similar can happen, but this is a huge game. Falling to 1-3, and 2.5 games behind the Lions is a really bad position to be in, but they've always beaten the Lions at home. Should be a really fun statement game for either team.
6.) Kansas City Chiefs (4-0 = 102-41)
Another game, another 2011 49ers ish performance, with great special teams, good offense and great defense built off of a dominant Front 7. If only they didn't share a division with the Broncos. Speaking of the Broncos, the Chiefs get the Broncos two in three Weeks. Look for that 2nd meeting in Week 13, because not only do they get the Broncos in Arrowhead (where the Broncos were held to a season low 19 points last year), but that is the week after the Broncos go to New England. That could be a massive game.
5.) New England Patriots (4-0 = 89-57)
Impressive. I can't really think of many times the Patriots have failed to deliver in a big night game on the road when they look slightly on edge. Last year's Texans game was at home, but there was the game in Pittsburgh in 2010 the week after their still shocking loss in Cleveland. The one time they noticeably did not do this was back in 2009 when the Saints shredded the living hell out of them in the Superdome. In related news, Saints@Patriots in two weeks! I can't wait for umpteen picks for New England to win because BB will want revenge after that embarrassing loss four years ago.
4.) Detroit Lions (3-1 = 122-101)
The Lions have three wins. Two of them were at home against divisional rivals, both games were in reality dominant wins that appeared closer because of Lions mistakes (or in the case of Chicago, because of massive garbage time scoring). The Lions are doing things this year they never really did in 2010 when they started 5-0, like run the ball, or play well in the secondary. The combo of Suh and Fairley is getting scarier by the week as well. Big game coming up. If they can beat the Packers in Lambeau, they basically win that division (and no, I'm not exaggerating), or at the least finish ahead of Green Bay.
3.) New Orleans Saints (4-0 = 108-55)
It took a while, but that offense was in 2011 or 2009 form last night against Miami. Uncovered receivers, Sproles converting 3rd and 20s. They can do it all. Of course, they still can't really run the ball, and inability to run has hurt Brees in the past (see 2010 or 2012). It hasn't yet. I'll give credit to Rob Ryan. That defense hasn't fallen apart yet. I still think it does to some degree at some point, but they're doing a nice imitation of Gregg Williams' 2009 unit.
2.) Seattle Seahawks (4-0 = 109-47)
The Seahawks passed their 2nd test, but now it is twice that their offense was totally stymied on the road. In Week 1 against Carolina they couldn't run. Here, they couldn't pass, as Wilson was 10-17 for 123 yards and a pick. Wilson was brilliant scrambling, but he had to scramble way too much. That O-Line is a problem. Of course, they will get Percy Harvin, Bruce Irvin and Cliff Avril back at some point to add to that already stacked team, and if they go just 3-3 in their remaining road games and clean house at home, they go 13-3. That is the roadmap for success here.
1.) Denver Broncos (4-0 = 179-91)
I guess Vegas remembered what happened in 2007, when they had to give the Pats 20 point spreads after they started 8-0 ATS, and then the Pats went 2-6 ATS to finish the year. Already there are reports the Broncos might break the record for biggest favorite in two weeks when they play Jacksonville. The one concern, Peyton might only play 2.5 quarters in that one. Anyway, on the road against Dallas is their first good test, and their trip to Indy in two weeks may be another good one. In the end, Peyton Manning is doing historic things here. Someone will slow them down somewhat, but who?
Playoff Projections
AFC
1.) Denver Broncos (15-1)
2.) New England Patriots (12-4)
3.) Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)
4.) Indianapolis Colts (10-6)
5.) Kansas City Chiefs (11-5)
6.) Miami Dolphins (10-6)
NFC
1.) Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
2.) Detroit Lions (12-4)
3.) New Orleans Saints (12-4)
4.) Dallas Cowboys (9-7)
5.) Chicago Bears (11-5)
6.) Carolina Panthers (10-6)
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
Overall, really good games this week. Probably something to do with the four bye teams being either 0-4 or 1-3. Sadly, way too many of them are at 1PM. Thankfully, I have my Sunday Ticket from Madden. Still don't know how or why Directv agreed to basically sell Sunday Ticket for 40 bucks, but good for them and great for me.
14.) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4) @ St. Louis Rams (1-3) (1:00 - CBS)
13.) Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) @ New York Giants (0-4) (1:00 - FOX)
12.) Carolina Panthers (1-2) @ Arizona Cardinals (2-2) (4:05 - FOX)
I call it "Thank God there are so many good games or I might have had to care about this one" Sunday, as we get two games with 1-3 teams playing 0-4 teams, and the Panthers going to Arizona. Interesting note about the Panthers @ Cardinals game, it is now the only other game in the late window because of the hilariousness of the Chargers @ Raiders game being pushed back to 11:35 EST.
11.) New York Jets (2-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-3) (MNF - ESPN)
10.) San Diego Chargers (2-2) @ Oakland Raiders (1-3) (SNF2 - NFLN)
I call it "Because the league had one bad night game, they decided to give us another" Monday. ESPN MNF has had a pretty good run early this year. We had a great Texans/Chargers game in Week 1. We had Peyton Manning doing Peyton Manning things, and a surprise matchup of two 3-0 teams this week. Well, it all goes to hell this week. So, the league threw us a bone and gave us bonus Monday Football, as on the East Coast, most of that Chargers/Raiders game will be well into Monday. Honestly, the NFL should randomly do that once a year. Makes an otherwise forgettable game quite unforgettable.
9.) Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) @ Tennessee Titans (3-1) (1:00 - CBS)
8.) Baltimore Ravens (2-2) @ Miami Dolphins (3-1) (1:00 - CBS)
7.) Buffalo Bills (2-2) @ Cleveland Browns (2-2) (TNF - NFLN)
I call it "They may be the better conference but do any of these games really seem that enticing" Sunday. Here we have six AFC teams. All .500 or better, and yet I'll be surprised if any of these games are that great. All feature average passing attacks, some of the QBs that won't have 4,000 yards, which is a feat in this modern NFL. The Browns game should be fun just because it is a night game (and the first good night game in Cleveland in years). Chiefs @ Titans would have been a lot more appealing had Jake Locker been healthy.
6.) Denver Broncos (4-0) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-2) (4:25 - CBS)
5.) Houston Texans (2-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-2) (SNF - NBC)
4.) Seattle Seahawks (4-0) @ Indianapolis Colts (3-1) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "The NFC gets another shot" Sunday, as this game has the best three inter-conference games this weekend. The Broncos get what could be their first real test (similarity to 2007, the Patriots first real test came in Week 6, with a trip to play 5-0 Dallas). I have a feeling the Broncos offense won't get 35+. The Texans and Colts get to attempt to continue the trend of AFC teams beating NFC favorites (slightly cooled off last night with the Saints beating down Miami). The Colts will give the Seahawks a good test. The Texans have the ability to give the 49ers a real tough run, but if they can mentally do so remains to be seen.
3.) New Orleans Saints (4-0) @ Chicago Bears (2-2) (1:00 - FOX)
2.) New England Patriots (4-0) @ Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Separation" Sunday, as these are the two best intra-conference, inter-division games. If the Bears roll the rest of the way and win that division, this could be a huge seeding game. When the Bengals rise to the top of the AFC North and leave the rest of that muk behind, that could also be a massive seeding game. I can't believe the Patriots might fly to a bye once again. To me, the Bengals are the only team in the AFC outside of Denver talented enough to match them. But can they show up? Interesting note about the Saints @ Bears game, the Saints in teh Brees era are 0-3 in Chicago. Sure, those games were all in 2006-2008, but they included the 2006 NFC Championship Game, and a, and this is no joke, really entertaining TNF game in 2008.
1.) Detroit Lions (3-1) @ Green Bay Packers (1-2) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Putting Away the Demons" Sunday, as the Lions, already first in the division, get a chance to exorcise the demons from last year. The Lions were humming around .500 when they blew a totally winnable game against Green Bay in Detroit. Then they blew a 14-0 lead in Green Bay a month later. The Lions have played Green Bay rather well the last few years, but haven't been able to beat them without concussing Aaron Rodgers. They have a chance to get a hammerhold on Green Bay (a two and a half game lead, with a head-to-head win in Green Bay). Interesting note, the second matchup here is on Thanksgiving.
49ers (-3.5) over RAMS (CORRECT = 1-0)
Steelers (-3) over VIKINGS (WRONG = 1-1)
BILLS (+3) over Ravens (CORRECT = 2-1)
Colts (-9.5) over JAGUARS (CORRECT = 3-1)
Cardinals (+2.5) over BUCCANEERS (CORRECT = 4-1)
Bengals (-4) over BROWNS (WRONG = 4-2)
Giants (+4.5) over CHIEFS (WRONG = 4-3)
TEXANS (+2) over Seahawks (WRONG = 4-4)
LIONS (-2.5) over Bears (CORRECT = 5-4)
Jets (+3.5) over TITANS (WRONG = 5-5)
CHARGERS (+2) over Cowboys (CORRECT = 6-5)
Redskins (-3.5) over RAIDERS (CORRECT = 7-5)
BRONCOS (-11.5) over Eagles (CORRECT = 8-5)
FALCONS (-2.5) over Patriots (WRONG = 8-6)
Dolphins (+7.5) over SAINTS (WRONG = 8-7)
Week 3: 8-7
Year-to-Date: 35-28
Power Rankings
32.) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4 = 31-129)
The Jaguars not only couldn't cover a 10 point spread at home against a divisional rival, but they didn't cover it by 24 points. How is this team even possibly this bad? Blaine Gabber just gets worse and worse as his career goes on. There could be a future potentially, but it is years away. They need a QB, but there doesn't seem to be any sure thing in the draft.
31.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4 = 44-70)
I'll give Mike Glennon credit for playing good for one half, and I'll give that defense credit for continuing to play well even though their offense is a nothing, but I can't give anyone credit for them blowing a 10 point lead with 8 minutes to go, and not only blowing it but losing the game. Greg Schiano is not long for this NFL world, and honestly, that won't be a bad thing. If anything, it might help other franchises too: college coaches are probably not a good idea.
30.) New York Giants (0-4 = 61-146)
I don't know if I have been more wrong about anything in my time on this blog than picking the Giants to go 12-4 and win the NFC. The amazing thing is if they can beat the Eagles next weekend, and if Denver beats Dallas as it probably should, the Giants would be just one game back in the NFC East. Still, I'm done with this team. They can't block, they can't run, they can't pass consistently. their once great pass rush got old and slow overnight, and their back-seven is injured. Nothing is good right now. Nothing.
29.) Oakland Raiders (1-3 = 71-91)
So, Matt Flynn got two medium sized contracts off of two games, one against a great Patriots team in 2010, the other against a coasting Lions team in Week 17 of 2011. So, how far will some terrible games go in making sure no one ever pays him well again? Flynn was absolutely pathetic, and showed that he was purely a product of that machine offense in Green Bay in those two games. The Redskins are not a good defense, yet they made hay of Matt Flynn.
28.) Washington Redskins (1-3 = 91-112)
Speaking of which, nice to see RGIII have a nice game and nicer to see the team not totally go away after going down 14-0 early. That was a season saving performance, and again, if the Broncos beat the Cowboys next week, the Redskins are just half a game back of 1st place (they have a bye). They could back their way into back-to-back NFC East Titles with an 8-8 record. Stranger things have happened.
27.) St. Louis Rams (1-3 = 69-121)
One of the benefits of playing on Thursday Night, if you lose, people just forget about you after what happens on Sunday. I think people have forgotten how terrible the Rams looked on Thursday Night against the 49ers. Their defense played well for a bit but it is stunning how bad they are against the run. They can rush the passer, but when you have an average at best offense, rush defense becomes a whole lot more important.
26.) Philadelphia Eagles (1-3 = 99-138)
This isn't all Chip Kelly's fault. His offense is gaining yards consistently. Sure, it bogs down in the Red Zone way too much. Sure they turn it over. Sure, if they can't run it consistently, they have to convert way too many 3rd and Longs, but they gain over 6 yards per play. This offense works. The defense is so awful it is hard to comprehend. Peyton Manning did what Peyton Manning does, but they couldn't stop the run, and couldn't stop anyone in the three weeks before.
25.) Pittsburgh Steelers (0-4 = 69-110)
While the Giants may have been my worst prediction, the Steelers going 12-4 and making the AFC Title Game may be my 2nd worst. This isn't Roethlisberger's fault, who has been quite good trying to bring his team back without any help from his running game or O-Line. He loses receivers year by year and keeps that passing game afloat. His defense is terrible, and that makes the record bad, but in that division, hope isn't gone.
24.) Minnesota Vikings (1-3 = 115-123)
That was the game GM INSERT NAME HERE was imagining when he signed Greg Jennings. I'm unsure if this is what he was imagining when he signed Matt Cassel, but I'm sure he will take it. It is amazing that both of Tom Brady's former backups played well during the day and then Brady had his best game of the year the same night. Coicidence? Probably. Either way, it was nice for London to finally get a good game after years of Patriots beating the Rams and Buccaneers, with a sprinkle of the Bears and Denver in 2011 (do you even know who won that game? Neither do I).
23.) New York Jets (2-2 = 68-88)
Maybe I am just underrating the Titans (and with my rank for them, I probably am), but that was a really terrible performance by the Jets defense. Jake Locker was having a really good year, but not that good of a year. As for Geno Smith, he was above average in Week 1, terrible in Week 2, great in Week 3 and now even more terrible in Week 4. How is this different than Mark Sanchez? He may have a higher ceiling, but he has the exact same floor.
22.) Cleveland Browns (2-2 = 64-70)
I'll admit, maybe Mike Lombardi can be a decent GM. Or... maybe Brian Hoyer is living in a dream world. Either them or the Bills will be 3-2 in two days. That is astounding. Their defense has made a pretty good transition to a 3-4, and it actually has been most of the young guys and not Paul Kruger making the difference. Jabaal Sheard has come back strongly, and Barkevious is as good as that name is.
21.) Arizona Cardinals (2-2 = 69-89)
The Cardinals won a game that was basically a copy of all the random games the Cardinals were able to pull out of their ass back in 2011 (when they ended 6-2 and finished 8-8). It was nice to see Larry Fitzgerald absolutely destroy Darrelle Revis on that game tying TD after the opposite happened on the interception. Oh, and Patrick Peterson is a bad, bad man. He was one of the few 'sure thing' corners that actually has been about as good as advertised.
20.) Atlanta Falcons (1-3 = 94-104)
Maybe I am overreacting, because if they were better in the red zone, they might beat New England, but they have a lot of problems. Their O-Line is terrible, and I guess Matt Ryan didn't get the 'make a bad O-Line look good' gene from Peyton Manning. What Ryan did get is the 'improbably comeback against the Patriots' gene, but couldn't finish it off. The defense has loads of problems as well, but most of those problems are having too many rookies. I guess they're building for 2016, when they hope Drew Brees will finally be human again.
19.) Dallas Cowboys (2-2 = 104-85)
Someone is winning that division, and the Cowboys are still my pick to win the division (obviously, they were not my preseason pick), but they might do it at 8-8. Random point: every offseason when the schedule comes out I pick all the games to get my first real projected standings. I had the Broncos pegged at 14-2, and my two losses for them were Week 17 in a rest-o-rama against Oakland, and their trip to Dallas. Needless to say, I'm rethinking that pick.
18.) Buffalo Bills (2-2 = 88-93)
Is there a team that can look so good on defense at times and still be average at best defensively year after year. They've had high-pick games of high profile players in the past, like a 5-pick performance against Romo in 2007, or the four-pick game against Brady in 2011 (their first win against New England since 1934). This was another one. The offense looked bad, and the running backs are hurt again, but as for Cleveland, they have a nice chance at being 3-2 in two days. Problem is in a surprisingly good AFC, 3-2 isn't all that special.
17.) Baltimore Ravens (2-2 = 91-87)
The Ravens gave up 35 points in the 2nd Half to Denver in Week 1. They've given up 38 points in the three games since. I love bringing up how ridiculous that Denver performance is because as the season goes on, I think that Denver performance is going to be more and more of an outlier for Baltimore. It is quite obvious that the problem in Baltimore is not losing Lewis and Reed (and Kruger/Williams/Ellerbe/Pollard). The defense is still good. The offense is close to plain bad right now.
16.) Tennessee Titans (3-1 = 98-69)
I do feel bad putting them this low, but they really should be 2-2 (that win over San Diego was the yearly 'bullshit semi-hail mary win.' Of course, they probably should have beaten the Texans, so in the end they're fine at 3-1. Part of the reason I'm docking them is Locker is out. Now, Fitzpatrick can be good in some games, but they have KC/@SEA/SF coming up before a bye. That is scary. Really just an unfortunate situation. I should mention that I compared them to the '99 Titans in my Picks, and that year Steve McNair missed a handfull of games as well.
15.) Houston Texans (2-2 = 90-105)
Talk about a choke. There were so many things wrong with the infamous pick-six. First, they had run well all game, why not just run it on 3rd and 4. Second, why call something that closes half the field. I hate bootlegs and sprint-options on big plays like that (same thing with Atlanta's terrible 4th and 2 against NE). Finally, for Schaub, how can you throw it? Take the sack, punt it away and trust your defense, which held them down all game, to finish it off.
14.) San Diego Chargers (2-2 = 108-102)
Not an ounce of panic when down 21-10 before the half. Not a second. That was impressive. Sure, they got fortunate with that forced fumble right at the goal line, but the Chargers may well win even had the game been cut to 30-28. Philip Rivers is playing so damn well right now. If not for Peyton Manning basically doing at the QB position the equivalent of what JJ Watt did at 3-4 DE last year, Philip Rivers would be talked about as a serious MVP candidate right now. He's playing basically at the level he was from 2008-2010. It is amazing what Chargers Coordinator Ken Whisenhunt can do with old, supposedly past-their-peak QBs.
13.) Carolina Panthers (1-2 = 68-36)
I don't think the Panthers would have wanted a bye right after their 38-0 win, and now they get a trip to always frisky Arizona for their post-bye game. That is a tough break. Either way, Carolina is still one of the league's best defenses and although the Giants defense is putrid, the Panthers have to take something from that game in that their offense looked alive again. Particularly the passing game, as Cam seems to be getting more comfortable with guys not named 'Steve Smith.' He'll need to when Peterson takes away Smith.
12.) Miami Dolphins (3-1 = 91-91)
I don't want to ping them too much for losing badly to the Saints yesterday. Playing New Orleans at night in the Dome is about as hard a task as any in the NFL (of course, I looked past that when picking the Dolphins to cover). What my issue with them is their O-Line can't really block too well, and Ryan Tannehill fumbles way too much. Tannehill's first two turnovers killed them in that game. First the fumble when they were driving past midfield down just 7-3, and then the pick right before the half when driving near midfield down just 14-10. Before you know it, game over. Yeah, sometimes it is that quick.
Another possible trend I want to investigate: do teams who win on TNF play well the next week? I feel like 'momentum' (which is a precarious idea anyway) is easy to loose when you don't play for 10 days. Houston will be a nice test for the 49ers. The Texans can do to them defensively what the Colts did, and their offense is actually quite similar to Indianapolis as well. They might miss Aldon Smith more in this game, especially if Duane Brown is back for the Texans.
10) Indianapolis Colts (3-1 = 105-51)
Yeah, they are currently 4th in points allowed in the NFL. Sure, it helps to play the Jaguars (#1 in that stat also played the Jaguars), but the Colts did something they were incapable of doing last year when they were the worst 11-5 team ever. The Colts played a team they were markedly better than, and they hammered them.
9.) Chicago Bears (3-1 = 127-114)
A nice flurry of points made the score respectable, but to me they were massively outplayed by Detroit. Now, that was just a terrible game from Cutler and he does that a few times a year. When he does, they have no chance. What is good is their run game is still going strong, the players outside of Marshall are still making plays, and their defense is still making plays. Of course, that defense is also hemorrhaging yards, which they didn't do last year.
8.) Cincinnati Bengals (2-2 = 81-81)
Strange performance, and it is only my biased, slanted belief that they will right themselves keeping them up this high in my power rankings. Andy Dalton, I don't think, has played an above average road game in his life (he probably has, I just don't remember it). The Bengals the past two years beat basically all the bad teams they played and struggled mightily against good ones, but this Bengals team has been the opposite. They struggled mightily against the Browns but beat the Packers. I honestly think they have a decent shot to beat New England this weekend as well. That defense is still really good.
7.) Green Bay Packers (1-2 = 96-88)
The Packers started last season 2-3, let's not remember. By Week 17, they were a win against Minnesota away from being the #2 seed (of course, they lost, which allowed the Vikings to make the playoffs instead of Chicago, probably costing Lovie Smith his job and Peyton Manning a 5th MVP). I still think something similar can happen, but this is a huge game. Falling to 1-3, and 2.5 games behind the Lions is a really bad position to be in, but they've always beaten the Lions at home. Should be a really fun statement game for either team.
6.) Kansas City Chiefs (4-0 = 102-41)
Another game, another 2011 49ers ish performance, with great special teams, good offense and great defense built off of a dominant Front 7. If only they didn't share a division with the Broncos. Speaking of the Broncos, the Chiefs get the Broncos two in three Weeks. Look for that 2nd meeting in Week 13, because not only do they get the Broncos in Arrowhead (where the Broncos were held to a season low 19 points last year), but that is the week after the Broncos go to New England. That could be a massive game.
5.) New England Patriots (4-0 = 89-57)
Impressive. I can't really think of many times the Patriots have failed to deliver in a big night game on the road when they look slightly on edge. Last year's Texans game was at home, but there was the game in Pittsburgh in 2010 the week after their still shocking loss in Cleveland. The one time they noticeably did not do this was back in 2009 when the Saints shredded the living hell out of them in the Superdome. In related news, Saints@Patriots in two weeks! I can't wait for umpteen picks for New England to win because BB will want revenge after that embarrassing loss four years ago.
4.) Detroit Lions (3-1 = 122-101)
The Lions have three wins. Two of them were at home against divisional rivals, both games were in reality dominant wins that appeared closer because of Lions mistakes (or in the case of Chicago, because of massive garbage time scoring). The Lions are doing things this year they never really did in 2010 when they started 5-0, like run the ball, or play well in the secondary. The combo of Suh and Fairley is getting scarier by the week as well. Big game coming up. If they can beat the Packers in Lambeau, they basically win that division (and no, I'm not exaggerating), or at the least finish ahead of Green Bay.
3.) New Orleans Saints (4-0 = 108-55)
It took a while, but that offense was in 2011 or 2009 form last night against Miami. Uncovered receivers, Sproles converting 3rd and 20s. They can do it all. Of course, they still can't really run the ball, and inability to run has hurt Brees in the past (see 2010 or 2012). It hasn't yet. I'll give credit to Rob Ryan. That defense hasn't fallen apart yet. I still think it does to some degree at some point, but they're doing a nice imitation of Gregg Williams' 2009 unit.
2.) Seattle Seahawks (4-0 = 109-47)
The Seahawks passed their 2nd test, but now it is twice that their offense was totally stymied on the road. In Week 1 against Carolina they couldn't run. Here, they couldn't pass, as Wilson was 10-17 for 123 yards and a pick. Wilson was brilliant scrambling, but he had to scramble way too much. That O-Line is a problem. Of course, they will get Percy Harvin, Bruce Irvin and Cliff Avril back at some point to add to that already stacked team, and if they go just 3-3 in their remaining road games and clean house at home, they go 13-3. That is the roadmap for success here.
1.) Denver Broncos (4-0 = 179-91)
I guess Vegas remembered what happened in 2007, when they had to give the Pats 20 point spreads after they started 8-0 ATS, and then the Pats went 2-6 ATS to finish the year. Already there are reports the Broncos might break the record for biggest favorite in two weeks when they play Jacksonville. The one concern, Peyton might only play 2.5 quarters in that one. Anyway, on the road against Dallas is their first good test, and their trip to Indy in two weeks may be another good one. In the end, Peyton Manning is doing historic things here. Someone will slow them down somewhat, but who?
Playoff Projections
AFC
1.) Denver Broncos (15-1)
2.) New England Patriots (12-4)
3.) Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)
4.) Indianapolis Colts (10-6)
5.) Kansas City Chiefs (11-5)
6.) Miami Dolphins (10-6)
NFC
1.) Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
2.) Detroit Lions (12-4)
3.) New Orleans Saints (12-4)
4.) Dallas Cowboys (9-7)
5.) Chicago Bears (11-5)
6.) Carolina Panthers (10-6)
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
Overall, really good games this week. Probably something to do with the four bye teams being either 0-4 or 1-3. Sadly, way too many of them are at 1PM. Thankfully, I have my Sunday Ticket from Madden. Still don't know how or why Directv agreed to basically sell Sunday Ticket for 40 bucks, but good for them and great for me.
14.) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4) @ St. Louis Rams (1-3) (1:00 - CBS)
13.) Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) @ New York Giants (0-4) (1:00 - FOX)
12.) Carolina Panthers (1-2) @ Arizona Cardinals (2-2) (4:05 - FOX)
I call it "Thank God there are so many good games or I might have had to care about this one" Sunday, as we get two games with 1-3 teams playing 0-4 teams, and the Panthers going to Arizona. Interesting note about the Panthers @ Cardinals game, it is now the only other game in the late window because of the hilariousness of the Chargers @ Raiders game being pushed back to 11:35 EST.
11.) New York Jets (2-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-3) (MNF - ESPN)
10.) San Diego Chargers (2-2) @ Oakland Raiders (1-3) (SNF2 - NFLN)
I call it "Because the league had one bad night game, they decided to give us another" Monday. ESPN MNF has had a pretty good run early this year. We had a great Texans/Chargers game in Week 1. We had Peyton Manning doing Peyton Manning things, and a surprise matchup of two 3-0 teams this week. Well, it all goes to hell this week. So, the league threw us a bone and gave us bonus Monday Football, as on the East Coast, most of that Chargers/Raiders game will be well into Monday. Honestly, the NFL should randomly do that once a year. Makes an otherwise forgettable game quite unforgettable.
9.) Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) @ Tennessee Titans (3-1) (1:00 - CBS)
8.) Baltimore Ravens (2-2) @ Miami Dolphins (3-1) (1:00 - CBS)
7.) Buffalo Bills (2-2) @ Cleveland Browns (2-2) (TNF - NFLN)
I call it "They may be the better conference but do any of these games really seem that enticing" Sunday. Here we have six AFC teams. All .500 or better, and yet I'll be surprised if any of these games are that great. All feature average passing attacks, some of the QBs that won't have 4,000 yards, which is a feat in this modern NFL. The Browns game should be fun just because it is a night game (and the first good night game in Cleveland in years). Chiefs @ Titans would have been a lot more appealing had Jake Locker been healthy.
6.) Denver Broncos (4-0) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-2) (4:25 - CBS)
5.) Houston Texans (2-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-2) (SNF - NBC)
4.) Seattle Seahawks (4-0) @ Indianapolis Colts (3-1) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "The NFC gets another shot" Sunday, as this game has the best three inter-conference games this weekend. The Broncos get what could be their first real test (similarity to 2007, the Patriots first real test came in Week 6, with a trip to play 5-0 Dallas). I have a feeling the Broncos offense won't get 35+. The Texans and Colts get to attempt to continue the trend of AFC teams beating NFC favorites (slightly cooled off last night with the Saints beating down Miami). The Colts will give the Seahawks a good test. The Texans have the ability to give the 49ers a real tough run, but if they can mentally do so remains to be seen.
3.) New Orleans Saints (4-0) @ Chicago Bears (2-2) (1:00 - FOX)
2.) New England Patriots (4-0) @ Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Separation" Sunday, as these are the two best intra-conference, inter-division games. If the Bears roll the rest of the way and win that division, this could be a huge seeding game. When the Bengals rise to the top of the AFC North and leave the rest of that muk behind, that could also be a massive seeding game. I can't believe the Patriots might fly to a bye once again. To me, the Bengals are the only team in the AFC outside of Denver talented enough to match them. But can they show up? Interesting note about the Saints @ Bears game, the Saints in teh Brees era are 0-3 in Chicago. Sure, those games were all in 2006-2008, but they included the 2006 NFC Championship Game, and a, and this is no joke, really entertaining TNF game in 2008.
1.) Detroit Lions (3-1) @ Green Bay Packers (1-2) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Putting Away the Demons" Sunday, as the Lions, already first in the division, get a chance to exorcise the demons from last year. The Lions were humming around .500 when they blew a totally winnable game against Green Bay in Detroit. Then they blew a 14-0 lead in Green Bay a month later. The Lions have played Green Bay rather well the last few years, but haven't been able to beat them without concussing Aaron Rodgers. They have a chance to get a hammerhold on Green Bay (a two and a half game lead, with a head-to-head win in Green Bay). Interesting note, the second matchup here is on Thanksgiving.
