Last Week: 8-7
Year-to-Date: 35-28
Buffalo Bills (2-2) @ Cleveland Browns (2-2) (CLE -3.5)
I think the Bills are a better team and have a brighter immediate future. The Browns may end the season with a better record because the AFC East is better than the AFC North (that's a sentence I haven't written since 2002), and I do give them a slight advantage here. Sometimes, when you are already playing well, getting a home primetime game just is that easy. The Browns are in a perfect spot to take the lead in the AFC North, and with both of the other 2-2 teams in the division playing better AFC East opponents, there is a legitimate chance they have sole possession of 1st in the division after the weekend. Anyway, as for this game, I like this Browns defense, and I think it takes a few more weeks before the league finds out ho to stop Brian Hoyer cold.
Bills 20 Browns 24 (CLE -3.5)
Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) @ Tennessee Titans (3-1) (KC -3)
This game would have been a lot more fun if Jake Locker was not injured. This is somewhat hard to believe, but the Titans haven't turned the ball over yet. The Chiefs have forced 12. Something has to give here and I think the side that does is the one started Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Titans have a really tough schedule coming up with both the Seahawks and 49ers before their Week 8 bye, so they lost Locker at the worst time. I guess I could see some 'rallying around Fitzpatrick' but that never really works with Fitzpatrick in the past. If the Chiefs are this years version of the 2011 49ers, they don't drop this type of game. They take care of the ball, play sound defense, score a TD or two, hit some field goals, and go home with a nice, unassuming victory.
Chiefs 23 Titans 13 (KC -3)
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4) @ St. Louis Rams (1-3) (STL -11.5)
This is probably a bigger sign of how historically bad the Jaguars are than them being 30 point underdogs next week in Denver. They are 11.5 point underdogs to a team that is not only 1-3, but lost their last two games 18-66. Every trend in the book points to the Jaguars being the right pick here. Not only do double digit underdogs generally cover, but there is no way a team as bad as St. Louis should be 11.5 point favorites ever. Also, even if St. Louis wins comfortably, their style isn't conducive to winning by such margins. Sure, the Jaguars are, without any exaggeration, historically bad (Football Outsiders DVOA has them as the worst team that they've recorded - since 1990 - through four weeks), and sure they can go 0-16, but going 0-16 ATS is even more impossible.
Jaguars 17 Rams 27 (JAX +11.5)
Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) @ New York Giants (0-4) (NYG -1.5)
Welcome to the part of the season where we see a lot of NFC East games that the world forces us to see because they are in giant TV markets and are national draws, even though they are horrible teams. This one at least is spared from national TV, but NBC is giving us Redskins @ Cowboys next Sunday Night. As for this game, will I do it again? I am 1-3 betting the Giants this year. The only time I got them right was picking Denver to cover against them in Week 2. They aren't 11.5 point favorites, but the Giants are favorites after being outscored 7-69 the last two weeks. They did face two of the best defenses in the NFL and now get the opposite of that. The Eagles also get to play a bad team, after getting roundhoused by two undefeated teams on the road. Because of the low line, I do like the Giants here, but I probably should be committed for going with them... again.
Eagles 23 Giants 31 (NYG -1.5)
Baltimore Ravens (2-2) @ Miami Dolphins (3-1) (MIA -3)
Miami looked bad last week, but playing on the road on primetime in the Superdome is not too easy. The score of 38-17 actually mirrored arguably the nadir of the post-Dynasty Patriots, when they walked into then 10-0 New Orleans in 2009 and got smacked by the exact same score. For this game, I don't really know where to go. Miami has shown some ability to play good defense against anything less than stellar offenses. Baltimore has shown no ability to travel, losing badly in Denver and then sloppily in Buffalo. It would be nice for Miami to win to continue to put some pressure on New England, but I don't see it here. I like the Ravens as underdogs here. I'm going to go back to an old system from the end of last year where I bet 1,000 on each game, and pay a 10% vig on each bet. I'm going to go buy half a point for Baltimore to drop it to MIA-3.5 for an extra 5%, and take the Ravens avoiding a field goal ATS loss.
Ravens 23 Dolphins 20 (BAL +3.5*)
Seattle Seahawks (4-0) @ Indianapolis Colts (3-1) (SEA -3)
I was all set to ride the Colts this week, but then I saw to two things. The first is the Seahawks O-Line getting slightly healthier this week from last, and the other is the Colts becoming a trendy public underdog pick. Now, the Colts getting some love is not for no good reason, they've looked really strong the last two weeks, finally able to really push their philosophy, however possibly outdated and misguided it may be. They abused the 49ers and can do something of the same to the Seahawks, whose O-Line is still up-and-down and where Russell Wilson hasn't exactly looked special outside of his game with the Jaguars. It is actually the other side that concerns me: can the Colts score enough? The Colts offense at times has looked confused and slow, with no real identity. They're running well, but they'll need to turn to Luck here. This is a big game, because the Colts are entering a really tough stretch (@SD on MNF, vs DEN on SNF, bye, @ HOU on SNF), and I'll take them but I'm really not confident on this one.
Seahawks 20 Colts 24 (IND +3)
Detroit Lions (3-1) @ Green Bay Packers (1-2) (GB -7.5)
This game and the next two are of concern to me, because not only do I want all of the underdogs to win because I like those teams and aren't on great terms with the favorites, but also I think the underdog is a nice play in all three. I know there is no way that all three underdogs cover (let alone win), because life doesn't work like my dreams. Anyway, this is really nice value for the Lions. I realize the Lions haven't won in Green Bay since before Brett Favre ever started a game for them (1991), but they don't have to win this one. They just have to keep it within a field goal, which they've been good at against Green Bay. They really held down the Packers offense last year in the two meetings. In those two games, Rodgers went 33-51 with 409 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT, and was sacked 6 times. The Packers scored just two offensive TDs in each game, and won 24-20 in Detroit and 27-20 in Green Bay. Guess what? Both of those scores cover this number, and this is a far better Lions team than that vintage. I like the Lions to cover this.
** - Calvin Johnson is out. Still think their defense plays well, but don't score enough on offense.
Lions 14 Packers 27 (GB -7.5)
New Orleans Saints (4-0) @ Chicago Bears (3-1) (NO -1.5)
This is the one I am the most confident about in the three games. The Saints offense just isn't the same outdoors as it is inside any dome (and it goes up another level in their dome). They scored just 16 in Tampa. They scored just 23 in Tennessee in 2011. They scored just 14 in Denver last year. They're overall outdoor numbers in 2012 were fine but a lot of their games included some major garbage yardage (their 27-35 loss in Carolina and their 27-52 loss in New York). The Bears are off a bad loss and will want to show up after being made underdogs at home. They are a very good home team and haven't lost to Brees in Chicago, beating him in all three meetings. Yes, those meetings were a long time ago, but I'm trying to justify something here.
Saints 24 Bears 27 (CHI +1.5)
New England Patriots (4-0) @ Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) (NE -2)
Yeah, I'm rolling underdogs here. My hope is to just go 2-1 with these, even 1-2 is fine. 0-3 would be a disaster, and 3-0 would be not only a nice little run of picks but elation to me as three teams I like would beat three teams I don't like too much. Here's the case for Cincinnati: they play better at home (witness their win over Green Bay). They have the type of team that could give the Patriots problems, with a balanced offense with multiple targets and a defense that can shut down their run game and get pressure on Brady, who's line is definitely worse than it has been in a while (still very good overall, though). The case against them is that Andy Dalton has been extremely volatile this year, and they are missing Leon Hall against a team that might be getting Danny Amendola back. Hall is the key to stopping slot guys, as he had a brilliant game against Randall Cobb. In the end, I'll ride these underdogs, and New England has to lose at some point. They aren't that great. I keep telling myself that; I keep hoping that. I think I'll be shown true for a week at least.
Patriots 20 Bengals 27 (CIN +2)
Carolina Panthers (1-2) @ Arizona Cardinals (2-2) (CAR -2.5)
OK, now that I get the run of underdogs out of the way (6 of my first 9 picks; 6 of the 8 1PM games), I can go back to business. The Panthers have a really soft, cushy schedule coming up with @MIN, vs STL, @ TB coming up, allowing them to potentially be 5-2 heading into a tough four game stretch after that (vs ATL, @SF, vs NE, @ MIA). The Panthers are a really good team that could easily be 3-0, but Arizona is a tough place to play, especially when you have a propensity to play, and more importantly lose, close games. The Cardinals are good enough to take advantage of any opportunity the Panthers give them. Luckily, this line is pretty low, and the Cardinals haven't really shown the ability to play offense yet. Also, with the Levi Brown trade making a wobbly line even more unsettled, I can see the Panthers front having a field day.
Panthers 24 Cardinals 16 (CAR -2.5)
Denver Broncos (4-0) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-2) (DEN -9)
After warming up slowly to the Manning Show, Vegas is starting to give them their due. They should have been at least 15 point favorites against the Eagles, and I think they will slowly enter 2007 Patriots level with their lines. I don't see how teams can keep them under 30, and then it comes down to their defense playing well. So far, the Broncos defense has a bad tendency to give up a lot of 1st half yards, but they tighten up in the red zone, tighten up in the 2nd half, and then give up garbage yards and points to make their overall ranking look less impressive. The trend is still there, though, with their points allowed total going from 27 to 23-21-20. I think that could continue, as Romo struggles against teams that play a lot of man coverage (see KC this year, or Green Bay in the past) and the Broncos play a ton of it. As I said earlier, I think the Cowboys defense could at least slow down the Broncos offense better than any other team, but then again they gave up 400 yards to Philip Rivers last weekend.
Broncos 34 Cowboys 17 (DEN -9)
Houston Texans (2-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-2) (SF -6)
Interesting game here. I like the Texans play for 57 minutes of last weeks game. Their D-Line is more well rounded this year with the rise of Whitney Mercilus. JJ Watt is quietly having another absolutely dominant season on the inside, and Brian Cushing should be back. Very quickly, the Texans have once again become a great defense. The problem is the offense hasn't escaped their late season lull last year to become anything other than a formulaic run and bootleg offense that people chide them with being. They used to be more, but I don't know what is wrong with Matt Schaub's head, but he checks down way too much. You can't do that against a team that can tackle the way the 49ers can. Having Duane Brown back is great, and having him face Aldon Smith's backup is even better. I like the Texans here to cover, but I think the 49ers will win and give the Texans another close loss.
Texans 20 49ers 23 (HOU +6)
San Diego Chargers (2-2) @ Oakland Raiders (1-3) (SD -5)
Man, if I was still in college, I would definitely watch this game. Then again, since I can work from home on Monday, maybe I should suck it up and just get 5 hours of sleep. When again will I be able to watch live football at 1:45 AM. It's like watching football living in Europe. I'm undecided on whether to watch the game, but I am not too undecided on this pick. Terrelly Pryor is back, which is good for the Raiders, but the Raiders are missing Darren McFadden. The Chargers are missing no one and need to win this game. They are better than Oakland. They can't afford another loss after losing two winnable games and finding them down two games in a tougher than expected division. Let's remember that coming into the season, people saw Oakland the way they saw the Jaguars and only the surprisingly competent play of Terrelle Pryor have made people forget about that comparison. They're still more or less the same team, and the Chargers, I believe, are a class better.
Chargers 31 Raiders 17 (SD -5)
New York Jets (2-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-3) (ATL -10)
ESPN pays in the billions to get the rights to broadcast MNF games. They probably should investigate why they basically get the same quality of games they used to get when they paid far less for the SNF games back before 2006. Colts @ Chargers should be nice next Monday, but it is Vikings @ Giants (ugh), Seahawks @ Rams (double ugh), and Dolphins @ Buccaneers (the worst inter-state rivalry possible) right after. This game is not great, and that is after the Jets being considerably better than people expected coming into this season. The Falcons looked slow and old at too many positions and inexperienced at too many others last Sunday Night, but they need this game more than anything. The problem I have is the Jets have contained shorthanded offenses before and this is a high number. If it was a field goal lower I would take the Falcons easily, but I like the Jets to cover. Yes, I don't know why.
Jets 17 Falcons 23 (NYJ +10)
Enjoy the Games!!
Year-to-Date: 35-28
Buffalo Bills (2-2) @ Cleveland Browns (2-2) (CLE -3.5)
I think the Bills are a better team and have a brighter immediate future. The Browns may end the season with a better record because the AFC East is better than the AFC North (that's a sentence I haven't written since 2002), and I do give them a slight advantage here. Sometimes, when you are already playing well, getting a home primetime game just is that easy. The Browns are in a perfect spot to take the lead in the AFC North, and with both of the other 2-2 teams in the division playing better AFC East opponents, there is a legitimate chance they have sole possession of 1st in the division after the weekend. Anyway, as for this game, I like this Browns defense, and I think it takes a few more weeks before the league finds out ho to stop Brian Hoyer cold.
Bills 20 Browns 24 (CLE -3.5)
Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) @ Tennessee Titans (3-1) (KC -3)
This game would have been a lot more fun if Jake Locker was not injured. This is somewhat hard to believe, but the Titans haven't turned the ball over yet. The Chiefs have forced 12. Something has to give here and I think the side that does is the one started Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Titans have a really tough schedule coming up with both the Seahawks and 49ers before their Week 8 bye, so they lost Locker at the worst time. I guess I could see some 'rallying around Fitzpatrick' but that never really works with Fitzpatrick in the past. If the Chiefs are this years version of the 2011 49ers, they don't drop this type of game. They take care of the ball, play sound defense, score a TD or two, hit some field goals, and go home with a nice, unassuming victory.
Chiefs 23 Titans 13 (KC -3)
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4) @ St. Louis Rams (1-3) (STL -11.5)
This is probably a bigger sign of how historically bad the Jaguars are than them being 30 point underdogs next week in Denver. They are 11.5 point underdogs to a team that is not only 1-3, but lost their last two games 18-66. Every trend in the book points to the Jaguars being the right pick here. Not only do double digit underdogs generally cover, but there is no way a team as bad as St. Louis should be 11.5 point favorites ever. Also, even if St. Louis wins comfortably, their style isn't conducive to winning by such margins. Sure, the Jaguars are, without any exaggeration, historically bad (Football Outsiders DVOA has them as the worst team that they've recorded - since 1990 - through four weeks), and sure they can go 0-16, but going 0-16 ATS is even more impossible.
Jaguars 17 Rams 27 (JAX +11.5)
Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) @ New York Giants (0-4) (NYG -1.5)
Welcome to the part of the season where we see a lot of NFC East games that the world forces us to see because they are in giant TV markets and are national draws, even though they are horrible teams. This one at least is spared from national TV, but NBC is giving us Redskins @ Cowboys next Sunday Night. As for this game, will I do it again? I am 1-3 betting the Giants this year. The only time I got them right was picking Denver to cover against them in Week 2. They aren't 11.5 point favorites, but the Giants are favorites after being outscored 7-69 the last two weeks. They did face two of the best defenses in the NFL and now get the opposite of that. The Eagles also get to play a bad team, after getting roundhoused by two undefeated teams on the road. Because of the low line, I do like the Giants here, but I probably should be committed for going with them... again.
Eagles 23 Giants 31 (NYG -1.5)
Baltimore Ravens (2-2) @ Miami Dolphins (3-1) (MIA -3)
Miami looked bad last week, but playing on the road on primetime in the Superdome is not too easy. The score of 38-17 actually mirrored arguably the nadir of the post-Dynasty Patriots, when they walked into then 10-0 New Orleans in 2009 and got smacked by the exact same score. For this game, I don't really know where to go. Miami has shown some ability to play good defense against anything less than stellar offenses. Baltimore has shown no ability to travel, losing badly in Denver and then sloppily in Buffalo. It would be nice for Miami to win to continue to put some pressure on New England, but I don't see it here. I like the Ravens as underdogs here. I'm going to go back to an old system from the end of last year where I bet 1,000 on each game, and pay a 10% vig on each bet. I'm going to go buy half a point for Baltimore to drop it to MIA-3.5 for an extra 5%, and take the Ravens avoiding a field goal ATS loss.
Ravens 23 Dolphins 20 (BAL +3.5*)
Seattle Seahawks (4-0) @ Indianapolis Colts (3-1) (SEA -3)
I was all set to ride the Colts this week, but then I saw to two things. The first is the Seahawks O-Line getting slightly healthier this week from last, and the other is the Colts becoming a trendy public underdog pick. Now, the Colts getting some love is not for no good reason, they've looked really strong the last two weeks, finally able to really push their philosophy, however possibly outdated and misguided it may be. They abused the 49ers and can do something of the same to the Seahawks, whose O-Line is still up-and-down and where Russell Wilson hasn't exactly looked special outside of his game with the Jaguars. It is actually the other side that concerns me: can the Colts score enough? The Colts offense at times has looked confused and slow, with no real identity. They're running well, but they'll need to turn to Luck here. This is a big game, because the Colts are entering a really tough stretch (@SD on MNF, vs DEN on SNF, bye, @ HOU on SNF), and I'll take them but I'm really not confident on this one.
Seahawks 20 Colts 24 (IND +3)
Detroit Lions (3-1) @ Green Bay Packers (1-2) (GB -7.5)
This game and the next two are of concern to me, because not only do I want all of the underdogs to win because I like those teams and aren't on great terms with the favorites, but also I think the underdog is a nice play in all three. I know there is no way that all three underdogs cover (let alone win), because life doesn't work like my dreams. Anyway, this is really nice value for the Lions. I realize the Lions haven't won in Green Bay since before Brett Favre ever started a game for them (1991), but they don't have to win this one. They just have to keep it within a field goal, which they've been good at against Green Bay. They really held down the Packers offense last year in the two meetings. In those two games, Rodgers went 33-51 with 409 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT, and was sacked 6 times. The Packers scored just two offensive TDs in each game, and won 24-20 in Detroit and 27-20 in Green Bay. Guess what? Both of those scores cover this number, and this is a far better Lions team than that vintage. I like the Lions to cover this.
** - Calvin Johnson is out. Still think their defense plays well, but don't score enough on offense.
Lions 14 Packers 27 (GB -7.5)
New Orleans Saints (4-0) @ Chicago Bears (3-1) (NO -1.5)
This is the one I am the most confident about in the three games. The Saints offense just isn't the same outdoors as it is inside any dome (and it goes up another level in their dome). They scored just 16 in Tampa. They scored just 23 in Tennessee in 2011. They scored just 14 in Denver last year. They're overall outdoor numbers in 2012 were fine but a lot of their games included some major garbage yardage (their 27-35 loss in Carolina and their 27-52 loss in New York). The Bears are off a bad loss and will want to show up after being made underdogs at home. They are a very good home team and haven't lost to Brees in Chicago, beating him in all three meetings. Yes, those meetings were a long time ago, but I'm trying to justify something here.
Saints 24 Bears 27 (CHI +1.5)
New England Patriots (4-0) @ Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) (NE -2)
Yeah, I'm rolling underdogs here. My hope is to just go 2-1 with these, even 1-2 is fine. 0-3 would be a disaster, and 3-0 would be not only a nice little run of picks but elation to me as three teams I like would beat three teams I don't like too much. Here's the case for Cincinnati: they play better at home (witness their win over Green Bay). They have the type of team that could give the Patriots problems, with a balanced offense with multiple targets and a defense that can shut down their run game and get pressure on Brady, who's line is definitely worse than it has been in a while (still very good overall, though). The case against them is that Andy Dalton has been extremely volatile this year, and they are missing Leon Hall against a team that might be getting Danny Amendola back. Hall is the key to stopping slot guys, as he had a brilliant game against Randall Cobb. In the end, I'll ride these underdogs, and New England has to lose at some point. They aren't that great. I keep telling myself that; I keep hoping that. I think I'll be shown true for a week at least.
Patriots 20 Bengals 27 (CIN +2)
Carolina Panthers (1-2) @ Arizona Cardinals (2-2) (CAR -2.5)
OK, now that I get the run of underdogs out of the way (6 of my first 9 picks; 6 of the 8 1PM games), I can go back to business. The Panthers have a really soft, cushy schedule coming up with @MIN, vs STL, @ TB coming up, allowing them to potentially be 5-2 heading into a tough four game stretch after that (vs ATL, @SF, vs NE, @ MIA). The Panthers are a really good team that could easily be 3-0, but Arizona is a tough place to play, especially when you have a propensity to play, and more importantly lose, close games. The Cardinals are good enough to take advantage of any opportunity the Panthers give them. Luckily, this line is pretty low, and the Cardinals haven't really shown the ability to play offense yet. Also, with the Levi Brown trade making a wobbly line even more unsettled, I can see the Panthers front having a field day.
Panthers 24 Cardinals 16 (CAR -2.5)
Denver Broncos (4-0) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-2) (DEN -9)
After warming up slowly to the Manning Show, Vegas is starting to give them their due. They should have been at least 15 point favorites against the Eagles, and I think they will slowly enter 2007 Patriots level with their lines. I don't see how teams can keep them under 30, and then it comes down to their defense playing well. So far, the Broncos defense has a bad tendency to give up a lot of 1st half yards, but they tighten up in the red zone, tighten up in the 2nd half, and then give up garbage yards and points to make their overall ranking look less impressive. The trend is still there, though, with their points allowed total going from 27 to 23-21-20. I think that could continue, as Romo struggles against teams that play a lot of man coverage (see KC this year, or Green Bay in the past) and the Broncos play a ton of it. As I said earlier, I think the Cowboys defense could at least slow down the Broncos offense better than any other team, but then again they gave up 400 yards to Philip Rivers last weekend.
Broncos 34 Cowboys 17 (DEN -9)
Houston Texans (2-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-2) (SF -6)
Interesting game here. I like the Texans play for 57 minutes of last weeks game. Their D-Line is more well rounded this year with the rise of Whitney Mercilus. JJ Watt is quietly having another absolutely dominant season on the inside, and Brian Cushing should be back. Very quickly, the Texans have once again become a great defense. The problem is the offense hasn't escaped their late season lull last year to become anything other than a formulaic run and bootleg offense that people chide them with being. They used to be more, but I don't know what is wrong with Matt Schaub's head, but he checks down way too much. You can't do that against a team that can tackle the way the 49ers can. Having Duane Brown back is great, and having him face Aldon Smith's backup is even better. I like the Texans here to cover, but I think the 49ers will win and give the Texans another close loss.
Texans 20 49ers 23 (HOU +6)
San Diego Chargers (2-2) @ Oakland Raiders (1-3) (SD -5)
Man, if I was still in college, I would definitely watch this game. Then again, since I can work from home on Monday, maybe I should suck it up and just get 5 hours of sleep. When again will I be able to watch live football at 1:45 AM. It's like watching football living in Europe. I'm undecided on whether to watch the game, but I am not too undecided on this pick. Terrelly Pryor is back, which is good for the Raiders, but the Raiders are missing Darren McFadden. The Chargers are missing no one and need to win this game. They are better than Oakland. They can't afford another loss after losing two winnable games and finding them down two games in a tougher than expected division. Let's remember that coming into the season, people saw Oakland the way they saw the Jaguars and only the surprisingly competent play of Terrelle Pryor have made people forget about that comparison. They're still more or less the same team, and the Chargers, I believe, are a class better.
Chargers 31 Raiders 17 (SD -5)
New York Jets (2-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-3) (ATL -10)
ESPN pays in the billions to get the rights to broadcast MNF games. They probably should investigate why they basically get the same quality of games they used to get when they paid far less for the SNF games back before 2006. Colts @ Chargers should be nice next Monday, but it is Vikings @ Giants (ugh), Seahawks @ Rams (double ugh), and Dolphins @ Buccaneers (the worst inter-state rivalry possible) right after. This game is not great, and that is after the Jets being considerably better than people expected coming into this season. The Falcons looked slow and old at too many positions and inexperienced at too many others last Sunday Night, but they need this game more than anything. The problem I have is the Jets have contained shorthanded offenses before and this is a high number. If it was a field goal lower I would take the Falcons easily, but I like the Jets to cover. Yes, I don't know why.
Jets 17 Falcons 23 (NYJ +10)
Enjoy the Games!!
