Looking Back at Last Week's Picks
BROWNS (-3.5) over Bills (CORRECT = 1-0)
Chiefs (-3) over TITANS (CORRECT = 2-0)Jaguars (+11.5) over RAMS (WRONG = 2-1)
GIANTS (-2.5) over Eagles (WRONG = 2-2)
GIANTS (-2.5) over Eagles (WRONG = 2-2)
Ravens (+3.5) over DOLPHINS (CORRECT = 3-2)
COLTS (+3) over Seahawks (CORRECT = 4-2)
PACKERS (-7.5) over Lions (CORRECT = 5-2)
BEARS (+1.5) over Saints (WRONG = 5-3)
BENGALS (+2) over Patriots (CORRECT = 6-3)
Panthers (-2.5) over CARDINALS (WRONG = 6-4)
Broncos (-9) over COWBOYS (WRONG = 6-5)
Texans (+6) over 49ERS (WRONG = 6-6)
Chargers (-5) over RAIDERS (WRONG = 6-7)
Jets (+10) over FALCONS (CORRECT = 7-7)
Year-to-Date: 42-35
32.) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5 = 51-163)
Another week, another loss ATS. Honestly, them being 11 point underdogs in St. Louis is just as bad as them being 28 point underdogs in Denver. Both show just how terrible this Jaguars team is in every way. But alas, Jaguars fans, there is light at the end of the tunnel. The Lions went 0-16 in 2008 and were in the playoffs three years later (and I think they get back this year as well). They just have to get a QB next year and hope they can draft well with their other high picks. That has been their, and any team that goes through a prolonged period of shitty play, problem the past few years.
31.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4 = 44-70)
Tampa cleaned a lot of their mess up over their bye week by ridding themselves of Josh Freeman, but he was absolutely not the problem. The whole organization is. Mark Dominek did a nice enough job drafting to make this team not horrible on defense, but I don't think Mike Glennon is any better of a long term option than Freeman was. The only way to fix Tampa to me is to get rid of Schiano.
30.) New York Giants (0-5 = 82-182)
I keep trying to forget the fact that I picked them to go 12-4 and make the Super Bowl. It probably will never work. Can't unpick that mess....
29.) Washington Redskins (1-3 = 91-112)
The Redskins, unbelievably, could be in first place in the division with a win in Dallas and a Philadelphia loss. They can actually win that division AND be a massive disappointment this season. This Redskins team is bad on defense, has an average offense with the possibility to graduate into 'good' if they get good consistent play from RGIII. That can be good enough to win the division. I don't think it eventually will be, but it is at least going to make the rest of the season interesting for Redskins fans.
28.) St. Louis Rams (2-3 = 103-141)
Congratulations, Rams, you can cover double digit spreads. But honestly, that loss says a lot more about the Jaguars and their never-ending ability to suck terribly than it does the Rams. Sam Bradford made some nice plays, but was still a little inaccurate. Saw a shocking stat posted during one of their brief Red Zone appearances that the average age of the Rams roster in 25.7. That is either going to be a great thing if the players develop, and the Rams can dominate the 2016 season, or it could be terrible. I have no idea which way it goes long term.
27.) Pittsburgh Steelers (0-4 = 69-110)
The Steelers haven't played in a while, and in their case I think getting the early bye helps Pittsburgh. They have a suddenly tough game coming up in New Jersey against the Jets. Ryan Clark pulled an Antrel Rolle today and said he thinks the Steelers have a chance at the playoffs. He's probably going to be as wrong as Rolle, but it starts in this game. The division is still somewhat reachable. Not really, but I don't want another one of my preseason picks being horribly, horribly wrong.
26.) Minnesota Vikings (1-3 = 115-123)
With Josh Freeman signed along, they have now cornered the market on the unlikeliest 10-game winning QBs from 2010-2012, with Freeman and Matt Cassel both going 10-6 with their teams in 2010, and Christian Ponder pulling the trick last year. So, with three guys with this type of pedigree, does that add up to even one competent QB? Probably not. The Vikings really need that defense to start playing at its 2012 level to get anywhere this season.
25.) Buffalo Bills (2-3 = 112-130)
The Bills losing EJ Manuel will really hurt the Bills for the next few months. Maybe Thad Lewis can run that offense, but he doesn't have nearly the passing talent of EJ Manuel. The running backs are perenially hurt. Their defense is also banged up in the secondary. Their D-Line is still very good, and they aren't the type of team that will get blown out a lot, but that still makes the Bills what they have been for the past decade.
24.) Oakland Raiders (2-3 = 98-108)
I think one of the more underreported stories of the 2013 season is how much Terrelly Pryor has progressed this season. He was completely average in his brief appearances late in 2012, but this year he has looked good in the pocket, like a more fluid less giraffe-like Colin Kaepernick when he takes off and runs, and has played well behind a totally suspect line. The Raiders defense-by-committee has also worked better than expected.
23.) Philadlephia Eagles (2-3 = 135-159)
If the Eagles win on Sunday, they can get back to .500, and stay tied for 1st place in the division. Just like I said in the Redskins section, the Eagles have a chance to both make the playoffs and be disappointing. I have one concern with the Eagles if Nick Foles has to start more than 1-2 games? How will losing him affect the rest of the Eagles run game. As we've seen in the past, Michael Vick can definitely positively impact the rest of the run game. We've already seen the run game kind of fall apart without Vick in the 2nd half of that past game.
22.) Atlanta Falcons (1-4 = 122-134)
I had the Falcons a bit higher until I learned of the potentially season-ending injury to Julio Jones. With Roddy White hampered all year, Julio Jones has been the only explosive outside target for Matt Ryan to throw to, and if he's gone, that passing offense might fall well below the level necessary to win games with the defense they have. They showed a nice composure to come back and take the lead in that game, but that defense is just way too inexperienced and young to stop teams.
21.) Cleveland Browns (3-2 = 101-94)
So, with Brian Hoyer gone for the year, the responsibility here falls back on Brandon Weeden. Ol' 31-year-old Sophomore played well against Buffalo, but I feel with teams having film on Weeden and weeks to prepare, he won't be close to as effective in the future weeks. The Browns defense is still quite good, but as the Buccaneers have shown, you can only stomach losing games 17-13 for so long before everything cracks.
20.) Houston Texans (2-3 = 93-139)
The Texans defense has actually played well this year. JJ Watt is still amazing. I think I finally have to admit that the problem is Matt Schaub and/or that offense. Somewhere in the middle of last year that offense stopped working. Andre Johnson has lost some explosiveness with a nagging injury which hurts, and now with Owen Daniels out 1-2 months, that offense could really struggle. The Texans aren't out of it yet in the division, but they're 0-2 to the Colts 2-0 against the two great NFC West teams. That isn't a great way to start.
19.) Carolina Panthers (1-3 = 74-58)
That was just a terrible performance. I still think they can make a late Wild-Card run, but with two of their last four games against the Saints, they might be playing a better team still trying to lock up a seed late in the season. That offense is just so slow in their passing plays right now. What seemed like such a revolutionary, versatile offense two years ago when Cam was a rookie looks so old and tired now. A good defense can't even save them.
18.) Miami Dolphins (3-2 = 114-117)
That 3-0 start seemed like forever ago. They have two wins against teams that are currently over .500, including giving the Colts their only loss of the season but that was a bad performance. The only reason they were in the game was because of a terrible Flacco interception and a once-in-a-year pass from Tannehill on 4th down late to extend that ultimately failed drive. The Dolphins didn't lose ground in the division, but with their games against New England coming quite a while later, they need to do more than keep pace. They need to pass them.
17.) San Diego Chargers (2-3 = 125-129)
The Chargers had to play both the 2nd Game of the doubleheader to start the season and the Late-Late game, and they are 0-2 in those games. So, in games at normal times, they are 2-1, with that loss being the hail mary loss to the Titans. I would hate for that Hail Mary loss to knock them out of a playoff spot. Huge MNF game coming up against the Colts. Good opportunity to right the ship and beat a potential playoff competitor.
16.) Dallas Cowboys (2-3 = 152-136)
That was about as good of a loss as you can have. They went toe-to-toe with the Broncos. They didn't blink when Manning scored the TD after halftime to go up 35-20. Not only did they not blink, they struck back harder going on a 28-6 run. Tony Romo's interception should not ruin the memory of an incredible performance by Romo and that offense. The defense, though, is quite terrible. Rob Ryan may have done a better job with that Cowboys personnel than I thought.
15.) Tennessee Titans (3-2 = 115-95)
Ryan Fitzpatrick did not look good in his first full start, but it was against the best pass defense in the NFL. Chris Johnson had a weird game, with another one of his patented 1.7 yards per rush, but a 49-yard weaving TD reception on a checkdown. How do both of those two things happen in the same game. The Titans defense played well also, and that will keep them in most games. The season isn't done yet, but chances are they'll be 3-4 after having to play the two NFC West monsters the next two weeks.
14.) New York Jets (3-2 = 98-116)
That was a solid performance by the Jets on Monday Night. Geno Smith looked really good last night, smart, confident and decisive. He made good throws with great ball placement. That second TD to Cumberland was a thing of beauty. I honestly think he's shown way more than Mark Sanchez ever did. The one quibble I have with the Jets dramatic MNF win is how soft their defense was late in the 4th Quarter. I'm surprised Rex Ryan would go so vanilla after going up 27-14. He let Matt Ryan so easily prance down the field to cut it to six. That has to change against better teams.
13.) Chicago Bears (3-2 = 145-140)
What a weird game. The Bears ended up with a really nice statistical game, including going for 8.0 yards-per-attempt. Jay Cutler didn't make any mistakes except for the sack-fumble on a blindside blitz. He didn't have an interception, and Alshon Jeffery showed all of the promise he had when he was drafted by the Bears in 2011. The defense did a great job limiting YAC, but for the first time I really thought they missed Brian Urlacher, seeing Jimmy Graham just roam free down the field.
12.) Arizona Cardinals (3-2 = 91-95)
This might be high, but I think they've beaten one good team (Detroit), one average team (Carolina) and one bad team (Tampa). They're still dynamite defensively on the dome. I haven't seen a faster defense in a dome in a long, long time. Patrick Peterson continues to rise up to that Darrelle Revis zone, and their pass rush looked so much more complete with Daryl Washington back. Sure, Carson Palmer has played really badly, but they've had some tough defenses to go against in their first five games. Here's a nice little random prediction: they beat either San Francisco or Seattle in Arizona.
11.) Baltimore Ravens (3-2 = 117-110)
The Ravens have given up just 61 points in their four games since they were Manning-ed in Week 1, correcting most of the problems mainly be just getting to the QB instead of being half a step slow against Peyton Manning. Terrell Suggs has been awesome this year, as has Daryl Smith - who was a really nice under-the-radar Free Agent signing this year. The Ravens offense also had a nice game until that terrible pick-six. This is a big game coming up against the Packers, a real opportunity to give a statement that they are back after they shat themselves in the last big game they played.
10.) Detroit Lions (3-2 = 131-123)
Tough loss for the Lions, who's defense played well for 2/3rds of that game. In the end, their offense just couldn't do enough without either Johnson or Burleson, and the defense was on the field too much. Stafford had a decent game, but I was surprised how hurried he looked in the pocket. I guess most of his hot reads or 'Throw it to Calvin.' The defense did a good job save for one busted coverage on the Jones TD. They have a shot at that division, but they better win that Thanksgiving game against the Packers.
9.) New England Patriots (4-1 = 95-70)
Rob Gronkowski is coming back, but I think it is a stretch to say they are going to even approach what they were in 2012 with Gronkowski coming back. Wilfork being out didn't matter too much in that game against Cincinnati's mediocre offense, but it could have been uglier if Dalton didn't throw that terrible pick. The Saints are another good test for the Patriots new and improved defense. They did a great job in the red zone against Atlanta, but the Saints are a different animal when they click.
8.) Green Bay Packers (2-2 = 118-97)
The Packers once again showed an inability to be as explosive against the Lions defense, but once again showed an ability to make the 1-2 key plays to win the game. This time it was Rodgers immediately noticed the busted coverage on the James Jones TD. Stunning development this season is the consistent good play of the Packers run game. I don't know if it is people always putting 6 in the box to stop the pass, but they've done a great job of running it well.
7.) San Francisco 49ers (3-2 = 113-98)
The 49ers were outscored 10-56 in two losses, then outscored their opponent 69-14 in two wins. Interesting little stretch for the 49ers. That loss to the Colts looks better by the week, but their win over the Texans may look worse by the end of the season. The 49ers have an incredibly soft schedule here on out, but I think there are problems with that team. Mainly, what has happened to Colin Kaepernick's throwing? He was so good in Week 1, but hasn't looked nearly the same since. I realize that he has no one to throw to, but that can't be an excuse forever.
6.) Cincinnati Bengals (3-2 = 94-87)
What a three-week stretch. They beat the Packers, lose to the Browns and Brian Hoyer, and then beat the Patriots. Their defense has been so good at home, but they need to take that same dominance on the road with them. Andy Dalton didn't look all that great, and his pocket presence hasn't improved at all, but he can make some great throws. That throw on 3rd and 15 backed up on their own two was a strike, one of the best, high-leverage throw of the season.
5.) Indianapolis Colts (4-1 = 139-79)
The Colts played their two toughest non-Peyton games of the year the past three weeks, and won them both. That is incredible. The win over the Seahawks was more impressive, in that way. They didn't get nervous down 12-0. They took their time, and made their plays. Their pass defense has improved so much since last season, and a lot of it starts with their pass rush. Robert Mathis has been unreal, with 9.5 sacks through five games. He can't keep that pace up, but I never expected this from Mathis in his first year post-Freeney.
4.) Seattle Seahawks (4-1 = 137-81)
I debated how far to drop the Seahawks, but at the end of the day, they weren't going 16-0, and we have evidence they struggle at 10AM, and when you give up a fluke play like a blocked-field-goal-TD, sometimes you just have to tip your hat and call them your daddy. Russell Wilson is still incredibly elusive, and that defense can play really well, but they can't afford to have more of these slow starts. They have enough of them that they might not be able to nab that #1 seed. With the alternative maybe a game in the Superdome, they better get it fixed.
3.) Kansas City Chiefs (5-0 = 128-58)
The Chiefs showed something by how they reacted to falling down 17-13. The Chiefs buttoned up and dominated the remainder of that game. Their defense might have had their least impressive game of the season, but when least impressive is holding Fitzpatrick to 21-41 with 1 TD and 2 INTs, that is a really good pass defense. The offense continues to do just enough, and with a light schedule, they really could enter that first game against Denver in Week 11 at 9-0.
2.) New Orleans Saints (5-0 = 134-73)
It's 2009 all over again. The Saints running roughshod over the NFC and the Peyton Manning-led team doing it in the AFC. The Saints defense had their worst game of the season, but they got enough pressure to still hold Chicago to 18 points. Drew Brees struggled at times to get consistent yards, and they ran way too many plays on 3rd down short of the sticks. However, these are all minor problems, little issues that the best team in the NFC needs to figure out.
1.) Denver Broncos (5-0 = 230-139)
Am I worried about their defense? Sure, but I'll really worry if when they get Von Miller, Champ Bailey, and the three guys that were injured during the Cowboys game (Woodyard, Ayers, Harris) back. That defense is still talented, and I think their performance against the Cowboys will be their nadir. Of course, they gave u 48 points and still won. That offense is just so incredible right now. I literally have never seen anything like it.
Playoff Projections
AFC
1.) Denver Broncos (15-1)
2.) Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)
3.) New England Patriots (12-4)
3.) New England Patriots (12-4)
4.) Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
5.) Kansas City Chiefs (11-5)
6.) San Diego Chargers (10-6)
NFC
1.) New Orleans Saints (13-3)
2.) Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
3.) Detroit Lions (11-5)
4.) Dallas Cowboys (9-7)
5.) San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
6.) Green Bay Packers (10-6)
Looking Ahead to Next Weeks Games
Byes: Atlanta (1-4), Miami (3-2)
15.) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5) @ Denver Broncos (5-0) (4:05 - CBS)
14.) Philadelphia Eagles (2-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4) (1:00 - FOX)
13.) Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) @ Buffalo Bills (2-3) (1:00 - CBS)
12.) St. Louis Rams (2-3) @ Houston Texans (2-3) (1:00 - FOX)
11.) Carolina Panthers (1-3) @ Minnesota Vikings (1-3) (1:00 - FOX)
10.) Tennessee Titans (3-2) @ Seattle Seahawks (4-1) (4:05 - CBS)
10.) Tennessee Titans (3-2) @ Seattle Seahawks (4-1) (4:05 - CBS)
I call it "Why Can't All Sundays be like Last Sunday" Sunday, as the good slate of games from last week have been replaced by these ornate piles of shitty games. The worst game actually has an intriguing storyline: can the Broncos cover the 28 point spread. The others are just mixes of bad teams playing bad teams (Panthers @ Vikings/Rams @ Texans), bad QB play (outside of Manning and Russell Wilson, the best QB in this area is Andy Dalton) combined with tons of backups QBs and lackluster receiving options.
9.) New York Giants (0-5) @ Chicago Bears (3-2) (TNF - NFLN)
8.) Pittsburgh Steelers (0-4) @ New York Jets (3-2) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "New York Going in Opposite Directions" Sunday (and Thursday), as the Giants try to get their first win and the Jets try to avoid giving the Steelers theirs. This is a big game for the Jets, as with a win they have a chance to at worst tie New England for 1st in the division next Sunday. The Giants, with a win, can potentially be just 1 game behind 1st place when Sunday ends, which is just absurd. The Bears will try to avoid a three game losing streak after a three-game winning streak to start the season. Interesting stuff here.
7.) Oakland Raiders (2-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs (5-0) (1:00 - CBS)
6.) Arizona Cardinals (3-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (3-2) (4:25 - FOX)
6.) Arizona Cardinals (3-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (3-2) (4:25 - FOX)
I call it "Divisional Games Might Not be that Easy" Sunday, as the Raiders and Cardinals travel to two of the best 2nd place teams in football (I guess the Chiefs are technically in 1st place, but whatever). The Raiders don't really match up well with Kansas City, but watching Terrelly Pryor is pretty fun these days. The Cardinals defense matches up well with anyone, and it will be interesting to see if the 49ers offense can really get back on track.
5.) Detroit Lions (3-2) @ Cleveland Browns (3-2) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Can Calvin Johnson Please Come Back" Sunday, for obvious reasons. Winner goes to 4-2. Cleveland can continue their amazing turnaround, or the Lions can get back on the winning path with a tough game in Cincinnati coming up.
4.) Washington Redskins (1-3) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-3) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "Bad NFC East, Pt. 3" Sunday, as this is the third of hopefully not too many more NFC East games on primetime. There's actually just one more scheduled intra-NFC East game on primetime, a SNF game in Week 14 between the Giants and Redskins. That could be flexed out, but I feel very confident some NFC East game will be flexed in at some point.
3.) Green Bay Packers (2-2) @ Baltimore Ravens (3-2) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Show Me Sunday", as the Packers and Ravens both have something to prove. The Packers are 0-2 on the road so far, with their defense looking terrible in one road loss and with their offense looking average in the other. The Ravens have been quite good since their Week 1 massacre that Denver put on them, and are historically great at home. Should be a fun matchup, the only good one in a terrible early slate.
2.) Indianapolis Colts (4-1) @ San Diego Chargers (2-3) (MNF - ESPN)
I call it "Welcome to the Big Time, Andrew" Sunday, as Andrew Luck gets his first chance on Monday Night Football. Philip Rivers has been great at home, and this is a game they need to win, while the Colts aren't in such a desperate situation. Andrew Luck also gets to do something Peyton Manning famously was unable to do too many times and beat San Diego. This used to a nice rivalry, and it would be great to start it up again.
1.) New Orleans Saints (5-0) @ New England Patriots (4-1) (4:25 - FOX)
I call it "Potentially Great Game of the Week" Sunday, as this game could make up for the drek that is the 1PM slot. Saints get another good test outdoors, the Patriots get another good test for their revamped defense. Tom Brady gets Rob Gronkowski back, as we get a matchup of the best two TEs in teh game. A nice game that could really go any way. Fun stuff.
