With finals upon me, I still haven't figured out my viewing schedule for this weekend. Of course, this has to be the best week, on paper, of the season, with a bunch of really good games. Because of this fact, I am leaning more and more heavily to living in isolation until Tuesday afternoon and watching everything then. Anyway, short picks this week. Hopefully that doesn't screw up what's been a pretty good season picking games.
Year-to-Date: 116-85-7 (57.5%)
Cincinnati Bengals (7-6) @ Philadelphia Eagles (4-9) (CIN -4.5)
Well, we come to the end of the Thursday Night Football schedule of the year. I have no idea why there isn't TNF football in Week 16 (especially since there is no Monday Night game, but a Saturday Night game on ESPN instead), but I'm glad I'll have Cee-Lo's stupid song out of my life. Anyway, it is fitting that in a year of prime-time blowouts and boring games (quick: name three good primetime games this year), we get the disappointing Eagles hosting a game. I would be more inclined to take the Eagles' side here if they didn't pull out that Tampa game. This will probably be a lot down for a team that is just happy to have ended an 8-game losing streak. The Bengals need the game badly, and I think they get it against what is still a porous pass defense.
Bengals 30 Eagles 20 (CIN -4.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) @ New Orleans Saints (5-8) (NO -3.5)
OK, now I'm going to get to the quick picks. The Buccaneers might have a let down after that awful loss to the Eagles last weekend, and the Saints generally play well at home. The Saints are getting good value here, as they have been able to destroy bad defenses all year long (they just have trouble with any team that is any good on that side of the ball). The Buccaneers have a terrible pass rush to go along as well.
Buccaneers 23 Saints 34 (NO -3.5)
Minnesota Vikings (7-6) @ St. Louis Rams (6-6-1) (STL -3)
Why do I like so many favorites this week? That never goes well. Anyway, I like the Rams here as well. The Rams have played well at home this year apart from losing to the Aaron Rodgers show earlier in the season. The Vikings haven't traveled well all year. By DVOA, the Rams are 8th best against the run, which helps against an offense that is mainly just Peterson runs. I like the Rams, who are getting good value, to continue their improbable and most likely irrelevant, playoff push. To be safe, I'll buy half a point here.
Vikings 13 Rams 20 (STL -3)
Washington Redskins (7-6) @ Cleveland Browns (5-8) (WAS -1)
I still don't know who is playing, but it is looking more likely to be RGIII. Either way, that scares me since RGIII with a knee injury can't be 100%, and his movement might be effected. Overall, I just can't believe the Redskins could end the year with 7 straight wins. The Browns have been decent all year long and winners of their last three. They have a defense that can contain RGIII, and an offense good enough to get by as well. With the value they are getting, they are an easy choice.
Redskins 20 Browns 23 (CLE +1)
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11) @ Miami Dolphins (5-8) (MIA -7)
This line is too high. I'm pretty sure the last time the Dolphins got this much love from Vegas was before their bizarre 37-3 home loss to the Titans. The Jaguars have been better in recent weeks, and I would think Chad Henne would want to stick it to the Dolphins. Either way, with a line this high I feel quite confident in the Dolphins inability to win a game by this amount.
Jaguars 23 Dolphins 20 (JAX +7)
Indianapolis Colts (9-4) @ Houston Texans (11-2) (HOU -8.5)
While this line is really high, I can't argue. The Texans are an awful matchup for the Colts. The Texans strength on defense is their interior line in JJ Watt and Antonio Smith, and they both have extremely favorable matchups against whoever the Colts have playing guard and center. The Colts have no one to take away Andre Johnson. The Colts haven't traveled well as it is, and the Texans are angry. The high line makes me think twice, but I would probably go with Houston for anything less than '-10'.
Colts 17 Texans 31 (HOU -8.5)
Denver Broncos (10-3) @ Baltimore Ravens (9-4) (DEN -2.5)
Now we get to the fun games. Manning has owned the Ravens in his career. He lost the first two meetings in 1998 and 2001, but the Colts beat the Ravens in 2002, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008 and 2009 with Manning, and again in the playoffs in 2006 and 2009. Peyton has a lifetime 95 rating against the Ravens, and all those Ravens teams had better defenses than this one. The Ravens offense generally plays better at home, but I don't think it would be enough to make up for the fact that the Broncos are just better anyway.
Broncos 27 Ravens 20 (DEN -2.5) (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
New York Giants (8-5) @ Atlanta Falcons (11-2) (ATL -1.5)
People love the Giants in this game. The Giants get up for these types of games. They've already gone out and smacked the 49ers and Packers in their meetings. The Giants aren't really a bad matchup for Atlanta, because their corners aren't great, but the matchup on the other side is just as bad. With injuries in the secondary, the Falcons pass defense isn't as good as it was earlier in the year, and Eli Manning could have a great game. The only thing that makes me want to pick Atlanta is the fact that they play well at home for the most part, but I'll go with my gut and the rest of the public and take the Giants.
Giants 27 Falcons 23 (NYG +1.5)
Green Bay Packers (9-4) @ Chicago Bears (8-5) (GB -3)
The most meaningful 1PM game in a way, the Bears have a chance to at least make the division interesting the last few weeks (the Packers would still be #1). The Packers have a chance to put the Bears misery even further, and stake their claim as an improbable #2 seed. The Bears have always played the Rodgers offense well, and especially at home in Chicago, and this version of the Packers offense is the worst in the Rodgers era (other than his first year). I can easily see the Bears defense, which hasn't slipped as much as people think, playing the Packers well. The other side is the key. Can Jay Cutler, for once, not throw picks against the Packers. I say he does with Woodson and Matthews likely out, and the Bears get the win, which at least makes a postseason appearance much more likely.
Packers 17 Bears 20 (CHI +3) (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Carolina Panthers (4-9) @ San Diego Chargers (5-8) (SD -3)
These next few games are so impeachably bad that I really don't care to think too much about them. The Panthers are the league's best 4-9 team in my eyes, and the Chargers are, pythagorically, the league's best 5-8 team. I think the league's best 4-9 team wins it, roping more people into the Panthers Playoffs in 2013 campaign that I am already close to signing up for.
Panthers 30 Chargers 24 (CAR +3)
Kansas City Chiefs (2-11) @ Oakland Raiders (3-10) (OAK -3)
Both these teams are awful, but the Raiders more often resemble an actual team. They have extra days to prepare, and other than the far-from-zero possibility of Jamaal Charles breaking the single-game rushing record, the Raiders should win. I'll buy a half to be safe.
Chiefs 17 Raiders 24 (OAK bought to -3.5)
Detroit Lions (4-9) @ Arizona Cardinals (4-9) (DET -6)
The Cardinals still usually play well at home and their defense is still good. There is a nice trend where teams that lose by a ton generally cover the next week as they get overly punished for that one awful performance. That 58-0 loss is hiding the fact that the Cardinals have usually been competitive in their games, and I think they'll be competitive, but lose, in this one.
Lions 24 Cardinals 20 (ARZ +6)
Seattle Seahawks (8-5) @ Buffalo Bills (5-8) (SEA -5.5)
This game is in Toronto, which makes me like the Seahawks a lot more. I think that line is a little high, as I don't trust the Seahawks yet to go on the road and take care of business by that much, but the Seahawks defense is on a roll right now. The Bills so far have never played well in their Toronto games, and the Seahawks need a win here to make that massive game next week against San Francisco meaningful, and I think they get it.
Seahawks 27 Bills 17 (SEA -5.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) @ Dallas Cowboys (7-6) (PIT -1.5)
Love this game. Would love it more if it was being played in the outdoor gem that is Heinz Field, as it was in 2008 when they played a fantastic low-scoring game, but I'll take the first meeting between these two Titans of the sport in Cowboys Stadium. Both teams really need this game, but the Cowboys would technically be a little more desperate (if the Steelers lose this but win next week in Cincinnati, they would still be in the driver's seat for a Wild Card spot). There is a chance the Steelers are looking ahead, but I don't think they will after that disaster last week. They match up well with the Cowboys in my mind.
Steelers 23 Cowboys 20 (PIT -1.5)
San Francisco 49ers (9-3-1) @ New England Patriots (10-3) (NE -5.5)
I feel this line is too high, but I fear a situation where I take the 49ers and the Patriots do to them what they just did to the Texans. I don't think the Patriots can sustain that level on a short week against the most physical team in the NFL. I definitely think the 49ers defense will have more success containing the Patriots offense as the 49ers defense has the guys in the secondary to slow down the Patriots receivers. The other side of the ball is the real matchup. Belichick will probably have something for Kaepernick, but the 49ers' offense is just schemed so well. I'll go with New England because they are on a hot streak to win, but I'll take the 49ers to make it a little close.
49ers 23 Patriots 27 (SF +5.5)
New York Jets (6-7) @ Tennessee Titans (4-9) (TEN -1.5)
Amazingly enough, the Jets scenario to make the playoffs isn't even that extreme. Not that many things have to happen outside of the Jets winning out. The Steelers have to lose twice (@DAL, vs.CIN, vs.CLE) and the Bengals once (@PHI, @PIT, vs.BAL). I still don't think it happens, but it could. The Jets have dominated mediocre and worse offenses this year, and the Titans are definitely that. I can see the Titans playing a good game on Monday Night, but I like where this Jets team is right now. I have an awful sickness with the Jets, always thinking they'll do better than they will. Maybe it is just a symptom of having too many friends that are Jets fans. Anyway, there is value for the Jets here, and I'll take it.
Jets 20 Titans 13 (NYJ +1.5)
Bonus: So, what were the good prime-time games this year?
Let's break it down.
Thursday Night Football: The best games were the 49ers 13-6 win over Seattle, which was a great low-scoring game, and a 26-23 OT win by the Titans over the Steelers. They had a couple good games on paper that ended up awful, like the Falcons sloppy 23-13 win over New Orleans, and the Packers equally sloppy 23-10 win over the Bears back in Week 2.
Monday Night Football: The best game was probably two weeks ago, with the Redskins beating the Giants 17-16, or you can go back to a couple of Broncos comebacks, with their 35-24 win over San Diego or their 27-21 near comeback loss to Atlanta. But the winner here was probably the most infamous game of the year, the Seahawks 14-12 win over the Packers in Week 3.
Sunday Night Football: This is the real sad one. Sunday Night Football is usually a great matchup going into the week. It always has the chance of being a special game, but this year has been mostly awful on Sunday Night, a string of boring blowouts and quarters filled with Al and Cris trying desperately to fill time. Here's a quick rundown.
Week 1: Cowboys over Giants 24-17: Decent, if unmemorable game.
Week 1: Broncos over Steelers 31-19: Good game, closer than the score indicates
Week 2: 49ers over Lions 27-19: Average game, not as close as the score
Week 3: Ravens over Patriots: 31-30: By far best prime-time game of the year.
Week 4: Eagles over Giants 19-17: Another good game - the year started well.
Week 5: Saints over Chargers 31-24: Only memorable for Brees braking Unitas' record.
Week 6: Packers over Texans 42-24: Great game on paper falls way short in blowout.
Week 7: Steelers over Bengals 24-17: Game nowhere near as fun as score.
Week 8: Broncos over Saints 34-14: Manning vs. Brees rematch is complete blowout
Week 9: Falcons over Cowboys 19-13: Admittedly good game between two good teams.
Week 10: Texans over Bears 13-6: Great matchup ruined by Cutler injury
Week 11: Ravens over Steelers 13-10: Great matchup ruined by presence of Leftwich.
Week 12: Patriots over Jets 49-19: Butt-Fumbling end to Thanksgiving
Week 12: Giants over Packers 38-10: The season's nadir with an unexpected blowout.
Week 13: Cowboys over Eagles 38-33: The fact it wasn't un-flexed ruined a decent game.
Week 14: Packers over Lions: 27-20: Started well but fizzled out the second the snow stopped.
We have three games left, with the 49ers traveling to New England and then Seattle the next week. Assuming a 49ers loss and Seahawks win this week, that game is essentially for the division. We'll find out the Week 17 game later, but a good one could be Cowboys @ Redskins.
Anyway, after that long, most likely unnecessary tangent, enjoy the games!!!
Year-to-Date: 116-85-7 (57.5%)
Cincinnati Bengals (7-6) @ Philadelphia Eagles (4-9) (CIN -4.5)
Well, we come to the end of the Thursday Night Football schedule of the year. I have no idea why there isn't TNF football in Week 16 (especially since there is no Monday Night game, but a Saturday Night game on ESPN instead), but I'm glad I'll have Cee-Lo's stupid song out of my life. Anyway, it is fitting that in a year of prime-time blowouts and boring games (quick: name three good primetime games this year), we get the disappointing Eagles hosting a game. I would be more inclined to take the Eagles' side here if they didn't pull out that Tampa game. This will probably be a lot down for a team that is just happy to have ended an 8-game losing streak. The Bengals need the game badly, and I think they get it against what is still a porous pass defense.
Bengals 30 Eagles 20 (CIN -4.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) @ New Orleans Saints (5-8) (NO -3.5)
OK, now I'm going to get to the quick picks. The Buccaneers might have a let down after that awful loss to the Eagles last weekend, and the Saints generally play well at home. The Saints are getting good value here, as they have been able to destroy bad defenses all year long (they just have trouble with any team that is any good on that side of the ball). The Buccaneers have a terrible pass rush to go along as well.
Buccaneers 23 Saints 34 (NO -3.5)
Minnesota Vikings (7-6) @ St. Louis Rams (6-6-1) (STL -3)
Why do I like so many favorites this week? That never goes well. Anyway, I like the Rams here as well. The Rams have played well at home this year apart from losing to the Aaron Rodgers show earlier in the season. The Vikings haven't traveled well all year. By DVOA, the Rams are 8th best against the run, which helps against an offense that is mainly just Peterson runs. I like the Rams, who are getting good value, to continue their improbable and most likely irrelevant, playoff push. To be safe, I'll buy half a point here.
Vikings 13 Rams 20 (STL -3)
Washington Redskins (7-6) @ Cleveland Browns (5-8) (WAS -1)
I still don't know who is playing, but it is looking more likely to be RGIII. Either way, that scares me since RGIII with a knee injury can't be 100%, and his movement might be effected. Overall, I just can't believe the Redskins could end the year with 7 straight wins. The Browns have been decent all year long and winners of their last three. They have a defense that can contain RGIII, and an offense good enough to get by as well. With the value they are getting, they are an easy choice.
Redskins 20 Browns 23 (CLE +1)
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11) @ Miami Dolphins (5-8) (MIA -7)
This line is too high. I'm pretty sure the last time the Dolphins got this much love from Vegas was before their bizarre 37-3 home loss to the Titans. The Jaguars have been better in recent weeks, and I would think Chad Henne would want to stick it to the Dolphins. Either way, with a line this high I feel quite confident in the Dolphins inability to win a game by this amount.
Jaguars 23 Dolphins 20 (JAX +7)
Indianapolis Colts (9-4) @ Houston Texans (11-2) (HOU -8.5)
While this line is really high, I can't argue. The Texans are an awful matchup for the Colts. The Texans strength on defense is their interior line in JJ Watt and Antonio Smith, and they both have extremely favorable matchups against whoever the Colts have playing guard and center. The Colts have no one to take away Andre Johnson. The Colts haven't traveled well as it is, and the Texans are angry. The high line makes me think twice, but I would probably go with Houston for anything less than '-10'.
Colts 17 Texans 31 (HOU -8.5)
Denver Broncos (10-3) @ Baltimore Ravens (9-4) (DEN -2.5)
Now we get to the fun games. Manning has owned the Ravens in his career. He lost the first two meetings in 1998 and 2001, but the Colts beat the Ravens in 2002, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008 and 2009 with Manning, and again in the playoffs in 2006 and 2009. Peyton has a lifetime 95 rating against the Ravens, and all those Ravens teams had better defenses than this one. The Ravens offense generally plays better at home, but I don't think it would be enough to make up for the fact that the Broncos are just better anyway.
Broncos 27 Ravens 20 (DEN -2.5) (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
New York Giants (8-5) @ Atlanta Falcons (11-2) (ATL -1.5)
People love the Giants in this game. The Giants get up for these types of games. They've already gone out and smacked the 49ers and Packers in their meetings. The Giants aren't really a bad matchup for Atlanta, because their corners aren't great, but the matchup on the other side is just as bad. With injuries in the secondary, the Falcons pass defense isn't as good as it was earlier in the year, and Eli Manning could have a great game. The only thing that makes me want to pick Atlanta is the fact that they play well at home for the most part, but I'll go with my gut and the rest of the public and take the Giants.
Giants 27 Falcons 23 (NYG +1.5)
Green Bay Packers (9-4) @ Chicago Bears (8-5) (GB -3)
The most meaningful 1PM game in a way, the Bears have a chance to at least make the division interesting the last few weeks (the Packers would still be #1). The Packers have a chance to put the Bears misery even further, and stake their claim as an improbable #2 seed. The Bears have always played the Rodgers offense well, and especially at home in Chicago, and this version of the Packers offense is the worst in the Rodgers era (other than his first year). I can easily see the Bears defense, which hasn't slipped as much as people think, playing the Packers well. The other side is the key. Can Jay Cutler, for once, not throw picks against the Packers. I say he does with Woodson and Matthews likely out, and the Bears get the win, which at least makes a postseason appearance much more likely.
Packers 17 Bears 20 (CHI +3) (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Carolina Panthers (4-9) @ San Diego Chargers (5-8) (SD -3)
These next few games are so impeachably bad that I really don't care to think too much about them. The Panthers are the league's best 4-9 team in my eyes, and the Chargers are, pythagorically, the league's best 5-8 team. I think the league's best 4-9 team wins it, roping more people into the Panthers Playoffs in 2013 campaign that I am already close to signing up for.
Panthers 30 Chargers 24 (CAR +3)
Kansas City Chiefs (2-11) @ Oakland Raiders (3-10) (OAK -3)
Both these teams are awful, but the Raiders more often resemble an actual team. They have extra days to prepare, and other than the far-from-zero possibility of Jamaal Charles breaking the single-game rushing record, the Raiders should win. I'll buy a half to be safe.
Chiefs 17 Raiders 24 (OAK bought to -3.5)
Detroit Lions (4-9) @ Arizona Cardinals (4-9) (DET -6)
The Cardinals still usually play well at home and their defense is still good. There is a nice trend where teams that lose by a ton generally cover the next week as they get overly punished for that one awful performance. That 58-0 loss is hiding the fact that the Cardinals have usually been competitive in their games, and I think they'll be competitive, but lose, in this one.
Lions 24 Cardinals 20 (ARZ +6)
Seattle Seahawks (8-5) @ Buffalo Bills (5-8) (SEA -5.5)
This game is in Toronto, which makes me like the Seahawks a lot more. I think that line is a little high, as I don't trust the Seahawks yet to go on the road and take care of business by that much, but the Seahawks defense is on a roll right now. The Bills so far have never played well in their Toronto games, and the Seahawks need a win here to make that massive game next week against San Francisco meaningful, and I think they get it.
Seahawks 27 Bills 17 (SEA -5.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) @ Dallas Cowboys (7-6) (PIT -1.5)
Love this game. Would love it more if it was being played in the outdoor gem that is Heinz Field, as it was in 2008 when they played a fantastic low-scoring game, but I'll take the first meeting between these two Titans of the sport in Cowboys Stadium. Both teams really need this game, but the Cowboys would technically be a little more desperate (if the Steelers lose this but win next week in Cincinnati, they would still be in the driver's seat for a Wild Card spot). There is a chance the Steelers are looking ahead, but I don't think they will after that disaster last week. They match up well with the Cowboys in my mind.
Steelers 23 Cowboys 20 (PIT -1.5)
San Francisco 49ers (9-3-1) @ New England Patriots (10-3) (NE -5.5)
I feel this line is too high, but I fear a situation where I take the 49ers and the Patriots do to them what they just did to the Texans. I don't think the Patriots can sustain that level on a short week against the most physical team in the NFL. I definitely think the 49ers defense will have more success containing the Patriots offense as the 49ers defense has the guys in the secondary to slow down the Patriots receivers. The other side of the ball is the real matchup. Belichick will probably have something for Kaepernick, but the 49ers' offense is just schemed so well. I'll go with New England because they are on a hot streak to win, but I'll take the 49ers to make it a little close.
49ers 23 Patriots 27 (SF +5.5)
New York Jets (6-7) @ Tennessee Titans (4-9) (TEN -1.5)
Amazingly enough, the Jets scenario to make the playoffs isn't even that extreme. Not that many things have to happen outside of the Jets winning out. The Steelers have to lose twice (@DAL, vs.CIN, vs.CLE) and the Bengals once (@PHI, @PIT, vs.BAL). I still don't think it happens, but it could. The Jets have dominated mediocre and worse offenses this year, and the Titans are definitely that. I can see the Titans playing a good game on Monday Night, but I like where this Jets team is right now. I have an awful sickness with the Jets, always thinking they'll do better than they will. Maybe it is just a symptom of having too many friends that are Jets fans. Anyway, there is value for the Jets here, and I'll take it.
Jets 20 Titans 13 (NYJ +1.5)
Bonus: So, what were the good prime-time games this year?
Let's break it down.
Thursday Night Football: The best games were the 49ers 13-6 win over Seattle, which was a great low-scoring game, and a 26-23 OT win by the Titans over the Steelers. They had a couple good games on paper that ended up awful, like the Falcons sloppy 23-13 win over New Orleans, and the Packers equally sloppy 23-10 win over the Bears back in Week 2.
Monday Night Football: The best game was probably two weeks ago, with the Redskins beating the Giants 17-16, or you can go back to a couple of Broncos comebacks, with their 35-24 win over San Diego or their 27-21 near comeback loss to Atlanta. But the winner here was probably the most infamous game of the year, the Seahawks 14-12 win over the Packers in Week 3.
Sunday Night Football: This is the real sad one. Sunday Night Football is usually a great matchup going into the week. It always has the chance of being a special game, but this year has been mostly awful on Sunday Night, a string of boring blowouts and quarters filled with Al and Cris trying desperately to fill time. Here's a quick rundown.
Week 1: Cowboys over Giants 24-17: Decent, if unmemorable game.
Week 1: Broncos over Steelers 31-19: Good game, closer than the score indicates
Week 2: 49ers over Lions 27-19: Average game, not as close as the score
Week 3: Ravens over Patriots: 31-30: By far best prime-time game of the year.
Week 4: Eagles over Giants 19-17: Another good game - the year started well.
Week 5: Saints over Chargers 31-24: Only memorable for Brees braking Unitas' record.
Week 6: Packers over Texans 42-24: Great game on paper falls way short in blowout.
Week 7: Steelers over Bengals 24-17: Game nowhere near as fun as score.
Week 8: Broncos over Saints 34-14: Manning vs. Brees rematch is complete blowout
Week 9: Falcons over Cowboys 19-13: Admittedly good game between two good teams.
Week 10: Texans over Bears 13-6: Great matchup ruined by Cutler injury
Week 11: Ravens over Steelers 13-10: Great matchup ruined by presence of Leftwich.
Week 12: Patriots over Jets 49-19: Butt-Fumbling end to Thanksgiving
Week 12: Giants over Packers 38-10: The season's nadir with an unexpected blowout.
Week 13: Cowboys over Eagles 38-33: The fact it wasn't un-flexed ruined a decent game.
Week 14: Packers over Lions: 27-20: Started well but fizzled out the second the snow stopped.
We have three games left, with the 49ers traveling to New England and then Seattle the next week. Assuming a 49ers loss and Seahawks win this week, that game is essentially for the division. We'll find out the Week 17 game later, but a good one could be Cowboys @ Redskins.
Anyway, after that long, most likely unnecessary tangent, enjoy the games!!!
