Year-to-Date: 125-92-7 (57.4%)
Atlanta Falcons (12-2) @ Detroit Lions (4-10) (ATL -3.5)
The Falcons still have to play for the #1 seed, but assuming they hold serve against a dead Bucs team next week, they can drop this game. The Lions are better than their record, but that was a performance of a team that gave up last week against Arizona. The line is giving good value, but I have a feeling they might be a little flat after that big win, and the Lions will surely play better than they did last week. The Lions have been mostly competitive this year, and I have a feeling Calvin might want to break that record with a dominant performance on primetime.
Falcons 23 Lions 27 (DET +3.5)
Tennessee Titans (5-9) @ Green Bay Packers (10-4) (GB -12.5)
The Packers haven't done well covering high lines this year. The best example was them beating the Jaguars 21-15 after being 14 point favorites. The Titans defense has come on lately, especially their defensive line, which is a good thing against the most sack-prone QB in the NFL. I can see a slow performance by the Packers here as they clinched the division last week. They still have a shot at the #2 seed, but there still could be an emotional let down here for a team that has often played slightly down to the level of their competition.
Titans 17 Packers 26 (TEN +12.5)
Oakland Raiders (4-10) @ Carolina Panthers (5-9) (CAR -8.5)
The Raiders got their token 4th win, and I don't think they have a chance in this game. The Panthers are better than their 5-9 record, and this game could be another step in the right direction looking forward to 2013. The Panthers offense should have no problem against the Raiders defense, and the Panthers defense themselves have the talent to limit the Raiders attack. If you make the Raiders pass offense go down the field in small chunks, they are eminently beatable, and the Raiders are here.
Raiders 16 Panthers 27 (CAR -8.5)
Buffalo Bills (5-9) @ Miami Dolphins (6-8) (MIA -4.5)
I have no clue about this game, and I don't really care too much either way. The Dolphins are better and at home, but they are incredibly schizophrenic at home. The Bills are really banged up, as Donald Jones is now out as well. I can see them hanging with the Dolphins, but in the end, the Dolphins are better and clearly haven't quit on 2012.
Bills 17 Dolphins 31 (MIA -4.5)
Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7) (PIT -4)
Big game here. The winner all but clinches a playoff spot (the Bengals win gives them a spot, and a Steelers gives them a 'win-and-you-are-in' game against the Browns next weekend. I think Cincinnati is better, but this is in Pittsburgh. It may be blind trust that the Steelers don't deserve, but I think they come to play in a game where they can essentially make the playoffs at home. The Steelers dominated the first meeting in Cleveland (even though the score was 24-17), and while the game might be closer, the score should stay somewhat the same.
Bengals 17 Steelers 23 (PIT -4)
New England Patriots (10-4) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12) (NE -14.5)
This is a great experiment of the legitimacy of betting trends. The Jaguars have been double-digit underdogs twice this year (@GB, @HOU), and covered both times (nearly beat Houston). The Patriots have been notoriously bad at covering double-digit lines since midway through 2007, when they became the public team to beat all public teams. If I was putting real money on these games, I probably wouldn't bet this, though, because how can I go against a Patriots team coming off of an embarrassing and heartbreaking loss (the worst kind). The Patriots will play angry. I guess they still have the #2 seed to play for, but motivation won't be there in any extrinsic sense, but intrinsically, this game means a lot for them.
Patriots 38 Jaguars 17 (NE -14.5)
Indianapolis Colts (9-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (2-12) (IND -6.5)
Here is another game where I feel the line is too high, but the Chiefs are just so bad right now. The Colts could be burned by Jamaal Charles, but I think the Chiefs have pretty much quit on the season. That was not just a loss at Oakland, but the first step in the exorcism of Romeo Crennel and Scott Pioli (but, by all means other NFL teams, keep hiring people from New England). The Colts are basically in now, but a win gives them the #4 seed and lets them avoid the Patriots, and I think that is motivation enough.
Colts 30 Chiefs 20 (IND -6.5)
New Orleans Saints (6-8) @ Dallas Cowboys (8-6) (DAL -3)
Can you say TRAP GAME!!!! The Cowboys have to be looking ahead a little bit to their showdown with the Redskins in Week 17. The Saints are a team that has the ability to play much better than their record (admittedly, they can also play far worse), and the Cowboys defense doesn't have the same effectiveness up front that once shocked the 13-0 Saints back in 2009. The Cowboys have been getting by in close games, and this line is sreaming to take the Cowboys giving only three. I am not so sure, as I can see Brees shredding that defense. To be safe, I'll buy half a point though, just to avoid a field goal screwing it up.
Saints 31 Cowboys 27 (NO bought to +3.5)
Washington Redskins (8-6) @ Philadelphia Eagles (4-10) (WAS -5.5)
I have similar thoughts here. RGIII is expected back, but I don't know how close to 100% he will be, as the Redskins have been very Belichickian in dealing with this injury. The Redskins are better, but the Eagles are playing far better now than they were in the first meeting. This will also most certainly be Andy Reid's final home game as Eagles head coach, and I could see the team trying to send him off right. The Eagles defense has put together two straight good games, and I could see a third happening here.
Redskins 23 Eagles 27 (PHI +5.5) (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
St. Louis Rams (6-7-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8) (TB -3)
Two teams that had a shot but let a playoff run slip away. I am surprised the line is this low, but I guess Vegas has jumped off the Buccaneers, and for good reason. The Rams were awful last week against the run, so Doug Martin could have a good game. Conversely, Josh Freeman might play horribly against a good Rams pass defense. The Buccaneers never have any real home-field advantage, and the Rams haven't traveled well. Basically, what I am trying to say is that I have no clue what is going to happen here.
Rams 20 Buccaneers 17 (STL +3)
Minnesota Vikings (8-6) @ Houston Texans (12-2) (HOU -7.5)
The only way the Vikings stay in this game is if Adrian Peterson has a monster game. The Texans can lock everything up in their final home game if they beat the Vikings, and have the knowledge that all of their future games that mean something will happen in Reliant. The Vikings have a lot to play for as well, but their passing game is woefully unprepared for the Texans defense. The line is high, but not too high for a team that has been mostly dominant at home, and I see that continuing.
Vikings 17 Texans 34 (HOU -7.5)
San Diego Chargers (5-9) @ New York Jets (6-8) (NYJ -2.5)
Who Cares? I definitely don't.
Chargers 24 Jets 20 (SD +2.5)
Cleveland Browns (5-9) @ Denver Broncos (11-3) (DEN -13)
This is a high, high line. The Broncos were favored twice by double digits this year (@KC, @OAK), and covered one. Those were both -10. The Browns have rarely lost by more than 10 this year, and despite the Broncos winning each of their last nine games by at least seven points, many of them have featured the Broncos giving up late scores to make them seem a little closer. The Browns though are just a great matchup for Denver. The Browns offense's only real strength is their run game, which the Broncos are great against. The Broncos should be able to move the ball effectively, because they have against everyone in Denver. I hate to lay this many points, especially twice in one week, but hopefully at least one of the two are right.
Browns 10 Broncos 27 (DEN -13)
Chicago Bears (8-6) @ Arizona Cardinals (5-9) (CHI -5.5)
This will be low scoring, I am sure of that much. The Cardinals and Bears are two of the best four or five defenses in the NFL, and the Cards defense usually plays better at home. Both QBs playing are known to make mistakes. What separates this game for me, though, is knowing that Jay Cutler will probably make a couple good plays, while I can't see the CardinalI just ts QBs doing anything of note against the Bears defense. The Bears defense has fallen off of their historically good pace, but they are still great, and this is a perfect spot for them to get back on track.
Bears 20 Cardinals 10 (CHI -5.5)
New York Giants (8-6) @ Baltimore Ravens (9-5) (NYG -2.5)
This is a tough game, but made a little bit easier with the Ravens having clinched a playoff spot last week. The Giants need to win both of their remaining games to have any good shot at the playoffs (of course, if they win both, they have a guaranteed spot in the playoffs). I can't see the Giants losing, but I also have a hard time seeing the Ravens lose four in a row, including three straight at home. That said, at the end of the day, the Ravens just aren't that good right now, and made worse with Torrey Smith's status unclear. The Giants are still a good team that will definitely play better than last week. The line is pretty good value, and I just think the proud team that always performs when its back is against the wall will once again.
Giants 27 Ravens 20 (NYG -2.5) (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
San Francisco 49ers (10-3-1) @ Seattle Seahawks (9-5) (SF -1)
If the Patriots beat the 49ers, this would have been an awesome game. In retrospect, Bengals @ Steelers is more meaningful now and probably would have been a better SNF game (although NBC already had the 1st leg). Speaking of 1st legs, the 1st leg of this matchup was an entertaining 13-6 win for the 49ers. How much has changed since then. The Seahawks have taken off and are now among the best teams in the NFL, while the 49ers have changed QBs and continued to be great when playing anyone other than St. Louis. The Seahawks haven't lost a home game yet, which makes this even harder to pick. When I first saw this, I was leaning towards the 49ers, who do have more to play for. Technically, the Seahawks aren't in the playoffs yet, but a win next week and they are in no matter what. The Seahawks also have little shot at the division. On the other side, the 49ers do have to still play for a 1st round bye. A loss here allows the Packers to steal it. That is more motivation, and the 49ers just do everything the Seahawks do a little bit better. I see them getting their 2nd straight statement road win in the Kaepernick era.
49ers 20 Seahawks 17 (SF -1)
Enjoy the Games!!!
Atlanta Falcons (12-2) @ Detroit Lions (4-10) (ATL -3.5)
The Falcons still have to play for the #1 seed, but assuming they hold serve against a dead Bucs team next week, they can drop this game. The Lions are better than their record, but that was a performance of a team that gave up last week against Arizona. The line is giving good value, but I have a feeling they might be a little flat after that big win, and the Lions will surely play better than they did last week. The Lions have been mostly competitive this year, and I have a feeling Calvin might want to break that record with a dominant performance on primetime.
Falcons 23 Lions 27 (DET +3.5)
Tennessee Titans (5-9) @ Green Bay Packers (10-4) (GB -12.5)
The Packers haven't done well covering high lines this year. The best example was them beating the Jaguars 21-15 after being 14 point favorites. The Titans defense has come on lately, especially their defensive line, which is a good thing against the most sack-prone QB in the NFL. I can see a slow performance by the Packers here as they clinched the division last week. They still have a shot at the #2 seed, but there still could be an emotional let down here for a team that has often played slightly down to the level of their competition.
Titans 17 Packers 26 (TEN +12.5)
Oakland Raiders (4-10) @ Carolina Panthers (5-9) (CAR -8.5)
The Raiders got their token 4th win, and I don't think they have a chance in this game. The Panthers are better than their 5-9 record, and this game could be another step in the right direction looking forward to 2013. The Panthers offense should have no problem against the Raiders defense, and the Panthers defense themselves have the talent to limit the Raiders attack. If you make the Raiders pass offense go down the field in small chunks, they are eminently beatable, and the Raiders are here.
Raiders 16 Panthers 27 (CAR -8.5)
Buffalo Bills (5-9) @ Miami Dolphins (6-8) (MIA -4.5)
I have no clue about this game, and I don't really care too much either way. The Dolphins are better and at home, but they are incredibly schizophrenic at home. The Bills are really banged up, as Donald Jones is now out as well. I can see them hanging with the Dolphins, but in the end, the Dolphins are better and clearly haven't quit on 2012.
Bills 17 Dolphins 31 (MIA -4.5)
Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7) (PIT -4)
Big game here. The winner all but clinches a playoff spot (the Bengals win gives them a spot, and a Steelers gives them a 'win-and-you-are-in' game against the Browns next weekend. I think Cincinnati is better, but this is in Pittsburgh. It may be blind trust that the Steelers don't deserve, but I think they come to play in a game where they can essentially make the playoffs at home. The Steelers dominated the first meeting in Cleveland (even though the score was 24-17), and while the game might be closer, the score should stay somewhat the same.
Bengals 17 Steelers 23 (PIT -4)
New England Patriots (10-4) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12) (NE -14.5)
This is a great experiment of the legitimacy of betting trends. The Jaguars have been double-digit underdogs twice this year (@GB, @HOU), and covered both times (nearly beat Houston). The Patriots have been notoriously bad at covering double-digit lines since midway through 2007, when they became the public team to beat all public teams. If I was putting real money on these games, I probably wouldn't bet this, though, because how can I go against a Patriots team coming off of an embarrassing and heartbreaking loss (the worst kind). The Patriots will play angry. I guess they still have the #2 seed to play for, but motivation won't be there in any extrinsic sense, but intrinsically, this game means a lot for them.
Patriots 38 Jaguars 17 (NE -14.5)
Indianapolis Colts (9-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (2-12) (IND -6.5)
Here is another game where I feel the line is too high, but the Chiefs are just so bad right now. The Colts could be burned by Jamaal Charles, but I think the Chiefs have pretty much quit on the season. That was not just a loss at Oakland, but the first step in the exorcism of Romeo Crennel and Scott Pioli (but, by all means other NFL teams, keep hiring people from New England). The Colts are basically in now, but a win gives them the #4 seed and lets them avoid the Patriots, and I think that is motivation enough.
Colts 30 Chiefs 20 (IND -6.5)
New Orleans Saints (6-8) @ Dallas Cowboys (8-6) (DAL -3)
Can you say TRAP GAME!!!! The Cowboys have to be looking ahead a little bit to their showdown with the Redskins in Week 17. The Saints are a team that has the ability to play much better than their record (admittedly, they can also play far worse), and the Cowboys defense doesn't have the same effectiveness up front that once shocked the 13-0 Saints back in 2009. The Cowboys have been getting by in close games, and this line is sreaming to take the Cowboys giving only three. I am not so sure, as I can see Brees shredding that defense. To be safe, I'll buy half a point though, just to avoid a field goal screwing it up.
Saints 31 Cowboys 27 (NO bought to +3.5)
Washington Redskins (8-6) @ Philadelphia Eagles (4-10) (WAS -5.5)
I have similar thoughts here. RGIII is expected back, but I don't know how close to 100% he will be, as the Redskins have been very Belichickian in dealing with this injury. The Redskins are better, but the Eagles are playing far better now than they were in the first meeting. This will also most certainly be Andy Reid's final home game as Eagles head coach, and I could see the team trying to send him off right. The Eagles defense has put together two straight good games, and I could see a third happening here.
Redskins 23 Eagles 27 (PHI +5.5) (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
St. Louis Rams (6-7-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8) (TB -3)
Two teams that had a shot but let a playoff run slip away. I am surprised the line is this low, but I guess Vegas has jumped off the Buccaneers, and for good reason. The Rams were awful last week against the run, so Doug Martin could have a good game. Conversely, Josh Freeman might play horribly against a good Rams pass defense. The Buccaneers never have any real home-field advantage, and the Rams haven't traveled well. Basically, what I am trying to say is that I have no clue what is going to happen here.
Rams 20 Buccaneers 17 (STL +3)
Minnesota Vikings (8-6) @ Houston Texans (12-2) (HOU -7.5)
The only way the Vikings stay in this game is if Adrian Peterson has a monster game. The Texans can lock everything up in their final home game if they beat the Vikings, and have the knowledge that all of their future games that mean something will happen in Reliant. The Vikings have a lot to play for as well, but their passing game is woefully unprepared for the Texans defense. The line is high, but not too high for a team that has been mostly dominant at home, and I see that continuing.
Vikings 17 Texans 34 (HOU -7.5)
San Diego Chargers (5-9) @ New York Jets (6-8) (NYJ -2.5)
Who Cares? I definitely don't.
Chargers 24 Jets 20 (SD +2.5)
Cleveland Browns (5-9) @ Denver Broncos (11-3) (DEN -13)
This is a high, high line. The Broncos were favored twice by double digits this year (@KC, @OAK), and covered one. Those were both -10. The Browns have rarely lost by more than 10 this year, and despite the Broncos winning each of their last nine games by at least seven points, many of them have featured the Broncos giving up late scores to make them seem a little closer. The Browns though are just a great matchup for Denver. The Browns offense's only real strength is their run game, which the Broncos are great against. The Broncos should be able to move the ball effectively, because they have against everyone in Denver. I hate to lay this many points, especially twice in one week, but hopefully at least one of the two are right.
Browns 10 Broncos 27 (DEN -13)
Chicago Bears (8-6) @ Arizona Cardinals (5-9) (CHI -5.5)
This will be low scoring, I am sure of that much. The Cardinals and Bears are two of the best four or five defenses in the NFL, and the Cards defense usually plays better at home. Both QBs playing are known to make mistakes. What separates this game for me, though, is knowing that Jay Cutler will probably make a couple good plays, while I can't see the CardinalI just ts QBs doing anything of note against the Bears defense. The Bears defense has fallen off of their historically good pace, but they are still great, and this is a perfect spot for them to get back on track.
Bears 20 Cardinals 10 (CHI -5.5)
New York Giants (8-6) @ Baltimore Ravens (9-5) (NYG -2.5)
This is a tough game, but made a little bit easier with the Ravens having clinched a playoff spot last week. The Giants need to win both of their remaining games to have any good shot at the playoffs (of course, if they win both, they have a guaranteed spot in the playoffs). I can't see the Giants losing, but I also have a hard time seeing the Ravens lose four in a row, including three straight at home. That said, at the end of the day, the Ravens just aren't that good right now, and made worse with Torrey Smith's status unclear. The Giants are still a good team that will definitely play better than last week. The line is pretty good value, and I just think the proud team that always performs when its back is against the wall will once again.
Giants 27 Ravens 20 (NYG -2.5) (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
San Francisco 49ers (10-3-1) @ Seattle Seahawks (9-5) (SF -1)
If the Patriots beat the 49ers, this would have been an awesome game. In retrospect, Bengals @ Steelers is more meaningful now and probably would have been a better SNF game (although NBC already had the 1st leg). Speaking of 1st legs, the 1st leg of this matchup was an entertaining 13-6 win for the 49ers. How much has changed since then. The Seahawks have taken off and are now among the best teams in the NFL, while the 49ers have changed QBs and continued to be great when playing anyone other than St. Louis. The Seahawks haven't lost a home game yet, which makes this even harder to pick. When I first saw this, I was leaning towards the 49ers, who do have more to play for. Technically, the Seahawks aren't in the playoffs yet, but a win next week and they are in no matter what. The Seahawks also have little shot at the division. On the other side, the 49ers do have to still play for a 1st round bye. A loss here allows the Packers to steal it. That is more motivation, and the 49ers just do everything the Seahawks do a little bit better. I see them getting their 2nd straight statement road win in the Kaepernick era.
49ers 20 Seahawks 17 (SF -1)
Enjoy the Games!!!
