I'm doing this in order of game importance, starting with the games that mean nothing. If I was betting real money, or even now that I am betting fake money, I wouldn't ever bet on a game where teams could rest.
The Potential Rest Games
Baltimore Ravens (10-5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (9-6) (CIN -3)
Almost every team says they won't rest heading into the game, so I don't make much out of Andy Dalton saying anything about the fact. I have no idea which team rests. If I was Baltimore, I would rest. I think they do, and the Bengals get the win.
Ravens 17 Bengals 23 (CIN -3) (NOT BETTING)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-9) @ Atlanta Falcons (13-2) (ATL -5)
The game was taken off the board, I'm assuming because of the Falcons ability to rest. I think they do sit starters, but the Buccaneers are playing really, really badly right now. I'll keep checking to see if a line is posted later, but for now, I'll take the Bucs.
Buccaneers 23 Falcons 20 (TB +5) (NOT BETTING)
The Games that Mean Nothing
New York Jets (6-9) @ Buffalo Bills (5-10) (BUF -3.5)
The game means nothing, I don't care one bit about this game. The Jets QB situation is just a disaster, and my pick is purely off the fact that I can't see returning to Mark Sanchez going well at all.
Jets 16 Bills 23 (BUF -3.5)
Cleveland Browns (5-10) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (7-8) (OFF)
The game is off the board because the Browns have no idea who is starting. This probably gets posted when an official announcement is made. If the answer is Thad Lewis, then I'm taking the Steelers for everything I own.
Browns 9 Steelers 27 (OFF)
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-13) @ Tennessee Titans (5-10) (TEN -3.5)
Despite the Jaguars being three games worse, I think they are playing better football right now. Their defense has played better the last few weeks and the Titans have played even worse the last few weeks. The Jaguars have basically no shot to win a #1 pick outside of a Chiefs loss, so they have nothing to lose by winning this game, and I think they take it.
Jaguars 20 Titans 17 (JAX +3.5)
Carolina Panthers (6-9) @ New Orleans Saints (7-8) (NO -5.5)
No idea what to expect here. The Saints finally have some good wins, but the Panthers beat them fairly easily the first time around. The game is in New Orleans, which makes me love the Saints in this one. The line even has decent value as well. I think the Saints get back to .500, but that doesn't make me like the Panthers any less heading into 2013.
Panthers 27 Saints 34 (NO -5.5)
Oakland Raiders (4-11) @ San Diego Chargers (6-9) (SD -10)
This game is off the board because of the uncertainty of the Raiders QB situation. The one thing we know is Carson Palmer won't be playing, and the Chargers should beat Matt Leinart, Terrelle Pryor or any combination of those two.
Raiders 13 Chargers 27 (SD -10)
The Games that Mean Something for One Team
Chicago Bears (9-6) @ Detroit Lions (4-11) (CHI -3)
The Bears have only lost to plus-.500 teams (GB twice, SF, HOU, SEA, MIN) and the Lions have basically given up on the season at this point. The Bears defense dominated the Lions last time around, and while the Lions might have some more success at home, I doubt the Bears score just 13 point either. The value here is quite good too, given that only the Bears care about this game. I'll take the Bears.
Bears 23 Lions 14 (CHI -3)
Philadelphia Eagles (4-11) @ New York Giants (8-7) (NYG -7)
With Michael Vick back, the Eagles could be a live dog, and if this game was in Philly, I would probably lead to the Eagles covering, but this is in New York. I can't see the Giants losing here, but covering makes the choice a little harder to make. The Eagles are playing hard but they don't have the talent at O-Line to protect Vick here. The Giants are also far more desperate, and I think they take it.
Eagles 20 Giants 31 (NYG -7)
Miami Dolphins (7-8) @ New England Patriots (11-4) (NE -10)
This is a really tough game to pick. If the Texans win and Baltimore loses, the Patriots have nothing really to play for because unless the Chiefs pull the shocker of all shockers, the Patriots will be the #3 seed. If the Texans lose, the Patriots will obviously go all out to get the #2 seed. If the Ravens win and the Texans win, the Patriots might throw the #3 seed for the more advantageous #4 seed just like they did in 2005. Personally, I picked the Texans and Bengals to win, giving the Patriots great opportunity to rest, and I'll go with that mentality in picking the Dolphins to cover, but still lose.
Dolphins 20 Patriots 27 (MIA +10)
St. Louis Rams (7-7-1) @ Seattle Seahawks (10-5) (SEA -10.5)
The Rams have been great in the division. How great? They haven't lost to an NFC West team, going 4-0-1. They swept the Cardinals, and came within one Greg Zuerlein field goal of sweeping the 49ers. They've already beaten the Seahawks. Unless the Cardinals beat the 49ers, the Seahawks are pretty locked into their spot. I don't think the Rams can win the game, but this line is high, even for a team that is on a run of all runs the last three weeks.
Rams 13 Seahawks 20 (STL +10.5)
Arizona Cardinals (5-10) @ San Francisco 49ers (10-4-1) (SF -16.5)
These lines are just way too high. The Cardinals defense is very good still. Though they haven't faced Kaepernick (the last time they played, Smith went 18-19, and of course got benched), I don't think they will have too much trouble. I just don't see how the Cardinals score enough to come close to winning. The 49ers covering is a different story though.
Cardinals 9 49ers 24 (ARZ +16.5)
Kansas City Chiefs (2-13) @ Denver Broncos (12-3) (DEN -16)
This line is also high, and I'll quickly say that as a biased Manning fan, I don't care. The Broncos have covered (or came withing a Matt Prater missed field goal) all their double digit lines, and I guess they could scoreboard watch with New England, or go up big and sit Manning late and allow a late score, but I'll keep my faith. Broncos win big.
Chiefs 10 Broncos 31 (DEN -16)
The Game I can't Figure Out
Houston Texans (12-3) @ Indianapolis Colts (10-5) (HOU -7)
The Colts have nothing to gain by playing this game. I don't believe in that resting hurts your chances if your team is playing in the Wild Card round. Andrew Luck has thrown it way too many times and needs a break, plus JJ Watt could conceivably kill him. Yet, because Chuck Pagano is returning, the Colts probably won't rest their guys (another reason is the events of Week 16 2009 still haunt Jim Irsay). The Texans are good enough anyway to win the game, but I really hope the Colts think long term and sit their guys and not risk injury.
Texans 27 Colts 16 (HOU -7)
The Games that Mean Everything
Green Bay Packers (11-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (9-6) (GB -3)
This is probably the most interesting game of the weekend. Yes, it isn't for the division, but it is a great test of competing motivations. The Packers need this game to get the #2 seed, which is huge for a team with a lot of people injured or coming off injury. The Vikings need this game to get the #6 seed, and if they lose they are out of the playoffs. The best part of this intrigue (other than the Bears having to root for the Packers) is that if the Vikings do win, it almost guarantees a Vikings @ Packers game next week. In the end, the Packers are just a better team. It is admirable what the Vikings have done. After their 5-2 start, many pointed to their tough schedule and thought they would have faded away far before now, but I think it ends Week 17.
Packers 27 Vikings 20 (GB -3)
Dallas Cowboys (8-7) @ Washington Redskins (9-6) (WAS -3)
Apparently, since picking the Redskins to win on Thanksgiving at Dallas, I have picked the Redskins to lose each week, and they have promptly won each week. So, let it continue. I think this Dallas team is just ready to take this step. They have the talent, they have the ability, the Redskins have an average at best home-field advantage. Although it would be high comedy to see the Cowboys lose a play-in game to each NFC East opponent over the past five years, I don't see it happening this time. Plus, I want a "Romo Bobbled Hold" rematch game next week.
Cowboys 27 Redskins 23 (DAL +3)
Enjoy the Games!!!
The Potential Rest Games
Baltimore Ravens (10-5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (9-6) (CIN -3)
Almost every team says they won't rest heading into the game, so I don't make much out of Andy Dalton saying anything about the fact. I have no idea which team rests. If I was Baltimore, I would rest. I think they do, and the Bengals get the win.
Ravens 17 Bengals 23 (CIN -3) (NOT BETTING)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-9) @ Atlanta Falcons (13-2) (ATL -5)
The game was taken off the board, I'm assuming because of the Falcons ability to rest. I think they do sit starters, but the Buccaneers are playing really, really badly right now. I'll keep checking to see if a line is posted later, but for now, I'll take the Bucs.
Buccaneers 23 Falcons 20 (TB +5) (NOT BETTING)
The Games that Mean Nothing
New York Jets (6-9) @ Buffalo Bills (5-10) (BUF -3.5)
The game means nothing, I don't care one bit about this game. The Jets QB situation is just a disaster, and my pick is purely off the fact that I can't see returning to Mark Sanchez going well at all.
Jets 16 Bills 23 (BUF -3.5)
Cleveland Browns (5-10) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (7-8) (OFF)
The game is off the board because the Browns have no idea who is starting. This probably gets posted when an official announcement is made. If the answer is Thad Lewis, then I'm taking the Steelers for everything I own.
Browns 9 Steelers 27 (OFF)
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-13) @ Tennessee Titans (5-10) (TEN -3.5)
Despite the Jaguars being three games worse, I think they are playing better football right now. Their defense has played better the last few weeks and the Titans have played even worse the last few weeks. The Jaguars have basically no shot to win a #1 pick outside of a Chiefs loss, so they have nothing to lose by winning this game, and I think they take it.
Jaguars 20 Titans 17 (JAX +3.5)
Carolina Panthers (6-9) @ New Orleans Saints (7-8) (NO -5.5)
No idea what to expect here. The Saints finally have some good wins, but the Panthers beat them fairly easily the first time around. The game is in New Orleans, which makes me love the Saints in this one. The line even has decent value as well. I think the Saints get back to .500, but that doesn't make me like the Panthers any less heading into 2013.
Panthers 27 Saints 34 (NO -5.5)
Oakland Raiders (4-11) @ San Diego Chargers (6-9) (SD -10)
This game is off the board because of the uncertainty of the Raiders QB situation. The one thing we know is Carson Palmer won't be playing, and the Chargers should beat Matt Leinart, Terrelle Pryor or any combination of those two.
Raiders 13 Chargers 27 (SD -10)
The Games that Mean Something for One Team
Chicago Bears (9-6) @ Detroit Lions (4-11) (CHI -3)
The Bears have only lost to plus-.500 teams (GB twice, SF, HOU, SEA, MIN) and the Lions have basically given up on the season at this point. The Bears defense dominated the Lions last time around, and while the Lions might have some more success at home, I doubt the Bears score just 13 point either. The value here is quite good too, given that only the Bears care about this game. I'll take the Bears.
Bears 23 Lions 14 (CHI -3)
Philadelphia Eagles (4-11) @ New York Giants (8-7) (NYG -7)
With Michael Vick back, the Eagles could be a live dog, and if this game was in Philly, I would probably lead to the Eagles covering, but this is in New York. I can't see the Giants losing here, but covering makes the choice a little harder to make. The Eagles are playing hard but they don't have the talent at O-Line to protect Vick here. The Giants are also far more desperate, and I think they take it.
Eagles 20 Giants 31 (NYG -7)
Miami Dolphins (7-8) @ New England Patriots (11-4) (NE -10)
This is a really tough game to pick. If the Texans win and Baltimore loses, the Patriots have nothing really to play for because unless the Chiefs pull the shocker of all shockers, the Patriots will be the #3 seed. If the Texans lose, the Patriots will obviously go all out to get the #2 seed. If the Ravens win and the Texans win, the Patriots might throw the #3 seed for the more advantageous #4 seed just like they did in 2005. Personally, I picked the Texans and Bengals to win, giving the Patriots great opportunity to rest, and I'll go with that mentality in picking the Dolphins to cover, but still lose.
Dolphins 20 Patriots 27 (MIA +10)
St. Louis Rams (7-7-1) @ Seattle Seahawks (10-5) (SEA -10.5)
The Rams have been great in the division. How great? They haven't lost to an NFC West team, going 4-0-1. They swept the Cardinals, and came within one Greg Zuerlein field goal of sweeping the 49ers. They've already beaten the Seahawks. Unless the Cardinals beat the 49ers, the Seahawks are pretty locked into their spot. I don't think the Rams can win the game, but this line is high, even for a team that is on a run of all runs the last three weeks.
Rams 13 Seahawks 20 (STL +10.5)
Arizona Cardinals (5-10) @ San Francisco 49ers (10-4-1) (SF -16.5)
These lines are just way too high. The Cardinals defense is very good still. Though they haven't faced Kaepernick (the last time they played, Smith went 18-19, and of course got benched), I don't think they will have too much trouble. I just don't see how the Cardinals score enough to come close to winning. The 49ers covering is a different story though.
Cardinals 9 49ers 24 (ARZ +16.5)
Kansas City Chiefs (2-13) @ Denver Broncos (12-3) (DEN -16)
This line is also high, and I'll quickly say that as a biased Manning fan, I don't care. The Broncos have covered (or came withing a Matt Prater missed field goal) all their double digit lines, and I guess they could scoreboard watch with New England, or go up big and sit Manning late and allow a late score, but I'll keep my faith. Broncos win big.
Chiefs 10 Broncos 31 (DEN -16)
The Game I can't Figure Out
Houston Texans (12-3) @ Indianapolis Colts (10-5) (HOU -7)
The Colts have nothing to gain by playing this game. I don't believe in that resting hurts your chances if your team is playing in the Wild Card round. Andrew Luck has thrown it way too many times and needs a break, plus JJ Watt could conceivably kill him. Yet, because Chuck Pagano is returning, the Colts probably won't rest their guys (another reason is the events of Week 16 2009 still haunt Jim Irsay). The Texans are good enough anyway to win the game, but I really hope the Colts think long term and sit their guys and not risk injury.
Texans 27 Colts 16 (HOU -7)
The Games that Mean Everything
Green Bay Packers (11-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (9-6) (GB -3)
This is probably the most interesting game of the weekend. Yes, it isn't for the division, but it is a great test of competing motivations. The Packers need this game to get the #2 seed, which is huge for a team with a lot of people injured or coming off injury. The Vikings need this game to get the #6 seed, and if they lose they are out of the playoffs. The best part of this intrigue (other than the Bears having to root for the Packers) is that if the Vikings do win, it almost guarantees a Vikings @ Packers game next week. In the end, the Packers are just a better team. It is admirable what the Vikings have done. After their 5-2 start, many pointed to their tough schedule and thought they would have faded away far before now, but I think it ends Week 17.
Packers 27 Vikings 20 (GB -3)
Dallas Cowboys (8-7) @ Washington Redskins (9-6) (WAS -3)
Apparently, since picking the Redskins to win on Thanksgiving at Dallas, I have picked the Redskins to lose each week, and they have promptly won each week. So, let it continue. I think this Dallas team is just ready to take this step. They have the talent, they have the ability, the Redskins have an average at best home-field advantage. Although it would be high comedy to see the Cowboys lose a play-in game to each NFC East opponent over the past five years, I don't see it happening this time. Plus, I want a "Romo Bobbled Hold" rematch game next week.
Cowboys 27 Redskins 23 (DAL +3)
Enjoy the Games!!!
