Just to restate, I am putting 1,000 fake dollars on each game, and putting up 200 extra dollars to buy half a point either way. OK, with that done, let's get to the picks.
Denver Broncos (9-3) @ Oakland Raiders (3-9) (DEN -10)
This is a high line, and the Broncos have a strange habit of giving up late TDs to come close to the number. They blew a -7.5 line against the Chargers by giving up a late TD, and almost did it again against the Buccaneers. I can totally see the Broncos winning by 17 and giving up a late TD to the best garbage-time offense in the NFL. Then again, the last time these two played, it was 37-6 despite Demarryius having a TD punched out of his hands. The Raiders are even worse now than they were then. I can't see a flat Raiders team that doesn't look like it is trying on defense beating a Broncos team that needs to put pressure on New England for that #2 seed.
Broncos 34 Raiders 13 (DEN -10)
Baltimore Ravens (9-3) @ Washington Redskins (6-6) (WAS -3)
The Ravens are an interesting team. Apparently, they are the best Special Teams through 12 games that Football Outsiders has ever measured. Their defense is worse than the Patriots defense by that same ranking, and allowing Charlie Batch to go 25-36 is evidence of that. That said, I don't think these two teams are even, as the line suggests. The Ravens aren't as good as a 9-3 team, but they aren't that far off. Plus, they haven't lost back-to-back games since October 2009. Also, can you really see the Redskins running off 7 in a row to end the year? I can't. The Redskins are also off a short week, and this is a rivalry game for the Ravens that they have owned. I love the Ravens here.
Ravens 23 Redskins 20 (BAL +3) (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Kansas City Chiefs (2-10) @ Cleveland Browns (4-8) (CLE -6.5)
Can you believe the 5-8 Browns are getting nearly a TD? Has there ever been a team three games under .500 that has gotten this many points before? The more weird part is I am down with that. The Browns have won two straight games and haven't been blown out all year long. I also don't like the Chiefs in this spot, as their emotions that ran high last Sunday are in for a letdown (much like the Colts after Pagano's diagnosis after the emotional win over the Packers). I do think the letdown will happen, and I just like this Browns team right now to take care of business.
Chiefs 17 Browns 27 (CLE -6.5)
San Diego Chargers (4-8) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) (PIT -6.5)
This is the line when Ben starts, and it looks pretty certain that he will. In the Rivers era, the Steelers have owned the Chargers, beating them twice in 2008, in 2009, against one loss back in the LDT era in 2006. And those were the Steelers beating better Chargers teams than this one. Quietly, around Roethlisberger's injury, Antonio Brown returned and he looks healthy. Roethlisberger is returning to a better cast than he left. The Steelers have an outside shot at the division and it would start with a win here against a dead team traveling West to East. I think the Chargers are just done at this point, and can't even see them getting up for this one.
Chargers 14 Steelers 31 (PIT -6.5) (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
Tennessee Titans (4-8) @ Indianapolis Colts (8-4) (IND -5)
When I saw this line for the first time, I thought "This is too high." Now that I've seen it more, I've come down from that opinion. The Colts are pretty close to money in any home game or winnable game. They haven't traveled well and that probably portends a dark day on January 5th or 6th in Baltimore, Denver or New England, but for this game, they are in a good spot. The Titans with Locker haven't really stepped up since getting him back. They looked so flaccid against the Texans last week. The Colts are healthier now than they've been at any point this season, and I would say they could look past the Titans with their game in Houston coming up, but the Titans are still a divisional rivalry. I'll go with the Colts to, somehow and someway, go to 9-4.
Titans 20 Colts 27 (IND -5)
New York Jets (5-7) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10) (NYJ -3)
I was wrong with Chad Henne last week, and from what I have seen with the Jets, their defense can absolutely dominate middling offenses, as they did three weeks ago in St. Louis, or last week against the Cardinals. The Jets themselves are going back to Sanchez, which is worrisome, but I have a feeling the benching will motivate him for at least one game. I don't want to think about this game for too long, and I'll stick with my judgement of the Jets defense shutting down a bad offense.
Jets 20 Jaguars 13 (NYJ -3)
Chicago Bears (8-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (6-6) (CHI -3)
The Bears are definitely in flux right now. They will almost certainly still make the playoffs, but things are getting more interesting. That game next week against Green Bay still looms large, but I can see this being a tricky game. The Bears rush defense is nowhere near as good as their pass defense, and that isn't a good matchup when playing Adrian Peterson, but the Ponder passing game probably will do nothing. The Bears are getting Alshon Jeffery and Devin Hester back, so this is the first game with Cutler and all the weapons in two months. I think they cover this low number and go to 9-4 heading into their showdown for the division next week.
Bears 27 Vikings 16 (CHI -3)
Atlanta Falcons (11-1) @ Carolina Panthers (3-9) (ATL -3)
If the Falcons are going to lose a surprise game, it is this one. They have another "prove something to me" type game next week when they host the Giants, and right now they have essentially a three game lead on the rest of the conference (they have to lose three more games for anyone else to pass them), so they have some give here. The Panthers nearly beat them the first time, just as they have nearly beaten a whole bunch of other teams. The Panthers passing game matches up well with the Falcons, and I don't think the Falcons can really hold down Cam in the running game. Also, the Panthers defense is a lot better than it was back in late September. I think they get back here, but that line does scare me as it is so low, so I will buy half a point the other direction.
Falcons 23 Panthers 27 (CAR bought up to +3.5)
Philadelphia Eagles (3-9) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6) (TB -7.5)
I don't know if I trust the Buccaneers to cover a touchdown spread. The Eagles defense is historically bad right now (though I think their streak of giving up 120+ passer ratings will end here), but their offense looked alive. A lot of that is Bryce Brown, who now faces a good rush defense. Overall, I have no idea where to go with this game (I have little idea about of lot of games this week), so I'll go with my gut.
Eagles 24 Buccaneers 30 (PHI +7.5)
St. Louis Rams (5-6-1) @ Buffalo Bills (5-7) (BUF -3)
I have a little more confidence here. The Rams are a good team that had two awful games (vs GB and vs NE in London). Other than their Week 1 loss to Detroit, they've lost to great QBs playing great, or to very good to great defenses (MIA, NYJ, CHI). The Bills are neither of these things. The Rams, believe it or not, have a shot at the playoffs with a soft schedule coming up. This is a winnable game for them, as their defense can slow down the Bills short passing game. The Bills defense also isn't good enough to shut down the Rams offense. I like the Rams in this position.
Rams 23 Bills 20 (STL +3)
Dallas Cowboys (6-6) @ Cincinnati Bengals (7-5) (CIN -3)
I have seen a lot of people picking the Cowboys here. I absolutely disagree. The Bengals are an awful matchup for the Cowboys. The Bengals, quietly, have one of the best d-lines in the NFL this year, spearheaded around Geno Atkins, and the Cowboys have suffered badly against good deep d-lines like Cleveland and Chicago. The Cowboys defense has also been regressing in recent weeks, and the Bengals offense is getting better (good to know that BenJarvus is alive again). The Bengals can smell a surprise return to the playoffs (I guess the Cowboys could too), and they also have revenge on their minds with corners PacMan and Terrence Newman. The line is also low. Give me the Bengals, but I'll buy half a point to be safe.
Cowboys 20 Bengals 31 (CIN bought to -2.5)
Miami Dolphins (5-7) @ San Francisco 49ers (8-3-1) (SF -10)
This is a high line, but the 49ers have been dominant against their middling AFC foes (beating the Jets 34-0 and the Bills 41-3). Colin Kaepernick should be able to get time against that pass rush, but I don't think their offense can reach that level against a good defense of Miami that they did agaisnt the Jets and Bills. The more interesting side of the matchup is the Dolphins offense against the 49ers defense. The Dolphins offense has really regressed from midseason, and I think that continues here. I hate picking favorites on double-digit lines, but including the next game, I might do it three times, which I hate. I'll pick the 49ers, but that could be another mistake on what could be a bad week.
Dolphins 13 49ers 24 (SF -10)
Arizona Cardinals (4-8) @ Seattle Seahawks (7-5) (SEA -10)
My sickness continues in liking the Cardinals. Of course, the one week I decide to not pick them, they lost to Mark Sanchez/Greg McElroy. Lost in the Cardinals 0-8 run is that their defense has made a nice comeback recently and is back to playing great. They were good against Rodgers (holding him to near 50% completions), brilliant against Matt Ryan (five picks), good against Bradford, and great against Sanchez. Now they get Russell Wilson. The only issue with picking the Cardinals to win is their offense is atrocious, but I can't, in good conscience, pick all three double-digit favorites to cover, and this being a division game, I feel like the Cardinals might come to play.
Cardinals 13 Seahawks 20 (ARZ +10)
New Orleans Saints (5-7) @ New York Giants (7-5) (NYG -5)
So, the last three times Drew Brees played the Giants, the Saints won and scored 30, 48 and 49 points. Of course, those were the three best Saints teams in the Brees era (2006, 2009, 2011), also, the two 40+ point games were in the Superdome. This is outdoors, in December, when the Saints are nowhere near that good. Other than one close win against Atlanta, the Saints haven't beaten a single good team, and usually looked pretty bad in the process. The Giants will probably know how to attack a Steve Spagnuolo defense as well. The Giants are now more desperate in this game, because they probably don't want to enter the last three games of the season in 2nd place with that schedule. I think the Giants finally figure out the Saints with Brees to a point, and outscore them anyway against what is still a soft defense.
Saints 24 Giants 31 (NYG -5)
Detroit Lions (4-8) @ Green Bay Packers (8-4) (GB -6.5)
My sickness with the Cardinals is carrying to Detroit. The reason not to pick them (apart from Green Bay being better and at home) is the Lions are coming off of three demoralizing home losses that they all led with 2:00 to go (Packers, Texans, Colts). That said, the Lions rarely get blown out, and their defense knows how to play a Rodgers-led Packers offense (ironically, not a Flynn-led Packers offense). With Rodgers at QB, the Packers haven't scored over 30 against the Lions since 2009. The Packers owe the Lions after stealing a win three weeks ago, and with a much larger game coming up next week against the Bears, I think they give it back. It might be my dumbest pick of the year, because there certainly is a scenario where the Packers roll, but I think the Lions pull it off. The Packers have been playing with fire at home all season long, and they finally get burnt. But, just to be safe, I'll buy a full point for the Lions, so they get a TD buffer.
Lions 27 Packers 23 (DET bought to +6.5)
Houston Texans (11-1) @ New England Patriots (9-3) (NE -3)
I would love to pick the Texans. If this game was in Houston and if Jonathan Joseph was playing (basically, what could be the situation come January 20th) I probably would, but I think this game not only means more for the Pats (holding onto the bye), but is the type of game the Patriots usually win. Outside of their memorable spanking from the Saints (well, memorable to me) in 2009, I can't think off hand of a time the Patriots lost a MNF game. The line is low, which actually makes me nervous. Very smart people in Vegas are telling us that the Texans are much closer than most would think, but I do think the Patriots win this round. Whether they do in January is a different story.
Texans 24 Patriots 30 (NE -3)
Enjoy the Games
Denver Broncos (9-3) @ Oakland Raiders (3-9) (DEN -10)
This is a high line, and the Broncos have a strange habit of giving up late TDs to come close to the number. They blew a -7.5 line against the Chargers by giving up a late TD, and almost did it again against the Buccaneers. I can totally see the Broncos winning by 17 and giving up a late TD to the best garbage-time offense in the NFL. Then again, the last time these two played, it was 37-6 despite Demarryius having a TD punched out of his hands. The Raiders are even worse now than they were then. I can't see a flat Raiders team that doesn't look like it is trying on defense beating a Broncos team that needs to put pressure on New England for that #2 seed.
Broncos 34 Raiders 13 (DEN -10)
Baltimore Ravens (9-3) @ Washington Redskins (6-6) (WAS -3)
The Ravens are an interesting team. Apparently, they are the best Special Teams through 12 games that Football Outsiders has ever measured. Their defense is worse than the Patriots defense by that same ranking, and allowing Charlie Batch to go 25-36 is evidence of that. That said, I don't think these two teams are even, as the line suggests. The Ravens aren't as good as a 9-3 team, but they aren't that far off. Plus, they haven't lost back-to-back games since October 2009. Also, can you really see the Redskins running off 7 in a row to end the year? I can't. The Redskins are also off a short week, and this is a rivalry game for the Ravens that they have owned. I love the Ravens here.
Ravens 23 Redskins 20 (BAL +3) (UPSET OF THE WEEK)
Kansas City Chiefs (2-10) @ Cleveland Browns (4-8) (CLE -6.5)
Can you believe the 5-8 Browns are getting nearly a TD? Has there ever been a team three games under .500 that has gotten this many points before? The more weird part is I am down with that. The Browns have won two straight games and haven't been blown out all year long. I also don't like the Chiefs in this spot, as their emotions that ran high last Sunday are in for a letdown (much like the Colts after Pagano's diagnosis after the emotional win over the Packers). I do think the letdown will happen, and I just like this Browns team right now to take care of business.
Chiefs 17 Browns 27 (CLE -6.5)
San Diego Chargers (4-8) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) (PIT -6.5)
This is the line when Ben starts, and it looks pretty certain that he will. In the Rivers era, the Steelers have owned the Chargers, beating them twice in 2008, in 2009, against one loss back in the LDT era in 2006. And those were the Steelers beating better Chargers teams than this one. Quietly, around Roethlisberger's injury, Antonio Brown returned and he looks healthy. Roethlisberger is returning to a better cast than he left. The Steelers have an outside shot at the division and it would start with a win here against a dead team traveling West to East. I think the Chargers are just done at this point, and can't even see them getting up for this one.
Chargers 14 Steelers 31 (PIT -6.5) (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
Tennessee Titans (4-8) @ Indianapolis Colts (8-4) (IND -5)
When I saw this line for the first time, I thought "This is too high." Now that I've seen it more, I've come down from that opinion. The Colts are pretty close to money in any home game or winnable game. They haven't traveled well and that probably portends a dark day on January 5th or 6th in Baltimore, Denver or New England, but for this game, they are in a good spot. The Titans with Locker haven't really stepped up since getting him back. They looked so flaccid against the Texans last week. The Colts are healthier now than they've been at any point this season, and I would say they could look past the Titans with their game in Houston coming up, but the Titans are still a divisional rivalry. I'll go with the Colts to, somehow and someway, go to 9-4.
Titans 20 Colts 27 (IND -5)
New York Jets (5-7) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10) (NYJ -3)
I was wrong with Chad Henne last week, and from what I have seen with the Jets, their defense can absolutely dominate middling offenses, as they did three weeks ago in St. Louis, or last week against the Cardinals. The Jets themselves are going back to Sanchez, which is worrisome, but I have a feeling the benching will motivate him for at least one game. I don't want to think about this game for too long, and I'll stick with my judgement of the Jets defense shutting down a bad offense.
Jets 20 Jaguars 13 (NYJ -3)
Chicago Bears (8-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (6-6) (CHI -3)
The Bears are definitely in flux right now. They will almost certainly still make the playoffs, but things are getting more interesting. That game next week against Green Bay still looms large, but I can see this being a tricky game. The Bears rush defense is nowhere near as good as their pass defense, and that isn't a good matchup when playing Adrian Peterson, but the Ponder passing game probably will do nothing. The Bears are getting Alshon Jeffery and Devin Hester back, so this is the first game with Cutler and all the weapons in two months. I think they cover this low number and go to 9-4 heading into their showdown for the division next week.
Bears 27 Vikings 16 (CHI -3)
Atlanta Falcons (11-1) @ Carolina Panthers (3-9) (ATL -3)
If the Falcons are going to lose a surprise game, it is this one. They have another "prove something to me" type game next week when they host the Giants, and right now they have essentially a three game lead on the rest of the conference (they have to lose three more games for anyone else to pass them), so they have some give here. The Panthers nearly beat them the first time, just as they have nearly beaten a whole bunch of other teams. The Panthers passing game matches up well with the Falcons, and I don't think the Falcons can really hold down Cam in the running game. Also, the Panthers defense is a lot better than it was back in late September. I think they get back here, but that line does scare me as it is so low, so I will buy half a point the other direction.
Falcons 23 Panthers 27 (CAR bought up to +3.5)
Philadelphia Eagles (3-9) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6) (TB -7.5)
I don't know if I trust the Buccaneers to cover a touchdown spread. The Eagles defense is historically bad right now (though I think their streak of giving up 120+ passer ratings will end here), but their offense looked alive. A lot of that is Bryce Brown, who now faces a good rush defense. Overall, I have no idea where to go with this game (I have little idea about of lot of games this week), so I'll go with my gut.
Eagles 24 Buccaneers 30 (PHI +7.5)
St. Louis Rams (5-6-1) @ Buffalo Bills (5-7) (BUF -3)
I have a little more confidence here. The Rams are a good team that had two awful games (vs GB and vs NE in London). Other than their Week 1 loss to Detroit, they've lost to great QBs playing great, or to very good to great defenses (MIA, NYJ, CHI). The Bills are neither of these things. The Rams, believe it or not, have a shot at the playoffs with a soft schedule coming up. This is a winnable game for them, as their defense can slow down the Bills short passing game. The Bills defense also isn't good enough to shut down the Rams offense. I like the Rams in this position.
Rams 23 Bills 20 (STL +3)
Dallas Cowboys (6-6) @ Cincinnati Bengals (7-5) (CIN -3)
I have seen a lot of people picking the Cowboys here. I absolutely disagree. The Bengals are an awful matchup for the Cowboys. The Bengals, quietly, have one of the best d-lines in the NFL this year, spearheaded around Geno Atkins, and the Cowboys have suffered badly against good deep d-lines like Cleveland and Chicago. The Cowboys defense has also been regressing in recent weeks, and the Bengals offense is getting better (good to know that BenJarvus is alive again). The Bengals can smell a surprise return to the playoffs (I guess the Cowboys could too), and they also have revenge on their minds with corners PacMan and Terrence Newman. The line is also low. Give me the Bengals, but I'll buy half a point to be safe.
Cowboys 20 Bengals 31 (CIN bought to -2.5)
Miami Dolphins (5-7) @ San Francisco 49ers (8-3-1) (SF -10)
This is a high line, but the 49ers have been dominant against their middling AFC foes (beating the Jets 34-0 and the Bills 41-3). Colin Kaepernick should be able to get time against that pass rush, but I don't think their offense can reach that level against a good defense of Miami that they did agaisnt the Jets and Bills. The more interesting side of the matchup is the Dolphins offense against the 49ers defense. The Dolphins offense has really regressed from midseason, and I think that continues here. I hate picking favorites on double-digit lines, but including the next game, I might do it three times, which I hate. I'll pick the 49ers, but that could be another mistake on what could be a bad week.
Dolphins 13 49ers 24 (SF -10)
Arizona Cardinals (4-8) @ Seattle Seahawks (7-5) (SEA -10)
My sickness continues in liking the Cardinals. Of course, the one week I decide to not pick them, they lost to Mark Sanchez/Greg McElroy. Lost in the Cardinals 0-8 run is that their defense has made a nice comeback recently and is back to playing great. They were good against Rodgers (holding him to near 50% completions), brilliant against Matt Ryan (five picks), good against Bradford, and great against Sanchez. Now they get Russell Wilson. The only issue with picking the Cardinals to win is their offense is atrocious, but I can't, in good conscience, pick all three double-digit favorites to cover, and this being a division game, I feel like the Cardinals might come to play.
Cardinals 13 Seahawks 20 (ARZ +10)
New Orleans Saints (5-7) @ New York Giants (7-5) (NYG -5)
So, the last three times Drew Brees played the Giants, the Saints won and scored 30, 48 and 49 points. Of course, those were the three best Saints teams in the Brees era (2006, 2009, 2011), also, the two 40+ point games were in the Superdome. This is outdoors, in December, when the Saints are nowhere near that good. Other than one close win against Atlanta, the Saints haven't beaten a single good team, and usually looked pretty bad in the process. The Giants will probably know how to attack a Steve Spagnuolo defense as well. The Giants are now more desperate in this game, because they probably don't want to enter the last three games of the season in 2nd place with that schedule. I think the Giants finally figure out the Saints with Brees to a point, and outscore them anyway against what is still a soft defense.
Saints 24 Giants 31 (NYG -5)
Detroit Lions (4-8) @ Green Bay Packers (8-4) (GB -6.5)
My sickness with the Cardinals is carrying to Detroit. The reason not to pick them (apart from Green Bay being better and at home) is the Lions are coming off of three demoralizing home losses that they all led with 2:00 to go (Packers, Texans, Colts). That said, the Lions rarely get blown out, and their defense knows how to play a Rodgers-led Packers offense (ironically, not a Flynn-led Packers offense). With Rodgers at QB, the Packers haven't scored over 30 against the Lions since 2009. The Packers owe the Lions after stealing a win three weeks ago, and with a much larger game coming up next week against the Bears, I think they give it back. It might be my dumbest pick of the year, because there certainly is a scenario where the Packers roll, but I think the Lions pull it off. The Packers have been playing with fire at home all season long, and they finally get burnt. But, just to be safe, I'll buy a full point for the Lions, so they get a TD buffer.
Lions 27 Packers 23 (DET bought to +6.5)
Houston Texans (11-1) @ New England Patriots (9-3) (NE -3)
I would love to pick the Texans. If this game was in Houston and if Jonathan Joseph was playing (basically, what could be the situation come January 20th) I probably would, but I think this game not only means more for the Pats (holding onto the bye), but is the type of game the Patriots usually win. Outside of their memorable spanking from the Saints (well, memorable to me) in 2009, I can't think off hand of a time the Patriots lost a MNF game. The line is low, which actually makes me nervous. Very smart people in Vegas are telling us that the Texans are much closer than most would think, but I do think the Patriots win this round. Whether they do in January is a different story.
Texans 24 Patriots 30 (NE -3)
Enjoy the Games
