Can't believe the regular season is about upon us. That said, I am really excited for the postseason. Lot's of great stories out in the NFC, and three very good to great teams in the AFC, and a potential Brady-Manning playoff game. Now that I have more free time than ever in January, expect a lot during the playoffs. Obviously, I'll do picks and weekly reviews, but also try to write something extra each week (something I did in the 2009 postseason, which I was a little too invested in), and maybe even some other stuff. I'll be doing AFC/NFC Playoff Primers next week after the season ends. Anyway, let's get on with this show.
Looking Back at Last Week's Picks
Lions (+3.5) over Falcons (WRONG = 0-1 = -1000)
Titans (+12.5) over Packers (WRONG = 0-2 = -1000)
Panthers (-8.5) over Raiders (CORRECT = 1-2 = +1000)
Dolphins (-4.5) over Bills (CORRECT = 2-2 = +1000)
Steelers (-4) over Bengals (WRONG = 2-3 = -1000)
Patriots (-14.5) over Jaguars (WRONG = 2-4 = -1000)
Colts (-6.5) over Chiefs (CORRECT = 3-4 = +1000)
Saints (+3.5*) over Cowboys (CORRECT = 4-4 = +1000)
Eagles (+5.5) over Redskins (WRONG = 4-5 = -1000) (UPSET)
Rams (+3) over Buccaneers (CORRECT = 5-5 = +1000)
Texans (-7) over Vikings (WRONG = 5-6 = -1000)
Chargers (+2.5) over Jets (CORRECT = 6-6 = +1000)
Broncos (-13) over Browns (CORRECT = 7-6 = +1000)
Bears (-5.5) over Cardinals (CORRECT = 8-6 = +1000)
Giants (-2.5) over Ravens (WRONG = 8-7 = -1000) (LOCK)
49ers (-1) over Seahawks (WRONG = 8-8 = -1000)
Week 16: 8-8 (LOCK: 0-1; UPSET: 0-1) (+0)
Year-to-Date: 133-100-7 (LOCK: 12-4; UPSET: 9-7) (+32,600)
Best Pick: I guess the game I didn't care about, picking teh Chargers to beat the Jets 24-20 (they won 27-17), or the Broncos over the Browns 27-10 (they won 34-12).
Power Rankings
AFC
2013 Isn't Too Far Away
16.) Kansas City Chiefs (2-13 = 208-387)
How do you have a player run for 200 yards, another run for 100 yards, and manage to score just 13 points. The Chiefs are just so sad right now, that even when they do what they do well, they can't win. I hope for Romeo's sake no one hires him as a head coach anymore.
15.) Tennessee Titans (5-10 = 292-451)
Another embarrassing loss for the Titans, a team that has had their fair share of them (but also some strange, big wins, like the 37-3 win in Miami). Jake Locker was just awful yesterday, and as Mike Munchak goes out, it is interesting to see if Jake Locker follows him.
14.) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-13 = 235-406)
They played hard, but the biggest play of the game was a mistake that only teams like the Jaguars make, when they had a false start on 3rd and Goal from the 1 down 23-16. Credit them for playing great on defense, but they still have a long way to go.
13.) Oakland Raiders (4-11 = 269-419)
Their defense showed up for the 2nd straight week and showed again what they could have been. Almost as inflaming, Matt Leinart showed why Carson Palmer is still by far the best option the Raiders had at QB this season.
12.) New York Jets (6-9 = 272-347)
I guess Mark Sanchez wasn't the biggest problem. I have no idea how an o-line with Nick Mangold could allow 7 sacks. I could go watch the sacks on Game Rewind, but that means me watching that dreadful game, which I just can't do.
11.) Buffalo Bills (5-10 = 316-426)
Another bad loss for the Bills, who had a most Bills like season. They show some flash, some Gailey-esque creativity on offense, but are nowhere near as talented or deep to make a run.
10.) Cleveland Browns (5-10 = 292-344)
That was a "Your Playing With the Big Boys Now" game for the Browns, who looked competitive for about one drive. The Broncos just do everything better than the Browns, but Cleveland isn't that far off.
9.) San Diego Chargers (6-9 = 326-329)
How amazing is it that Philip Rivers went 11-22 for 165 yards and that was one of his better games of the year. The Chargers defense was incredible, but playing great defense against Greg McElroy when no one is watching is kind of like a tree falling in the woods.
8.) Miami Dolphins (7-8 = 288-289)
Another nice performance by the Dolphins, a team that has been able to win a lot of low-scoring games as Tannehill went through troubles. They have a shot to make it back to .500, but even without a win in Week 17, they had a nice season.
7.) Pittsburgh Steelers (7-8 = 312-304)
It is still hard to believe that Pittsburgh might go under .500. They do miss the playoffs every third year (2006, 2009 and now 2012), but unlike the first two times when they were coming off of Super Bowl wins, this time they were coming of losing a playoff game to Tim Tebow.
Hey, One of You Two Will be Playing on Divisional Sunday
6.) Indianapolis Colts (10-5 = 329-371)
Another win against a bad team, and another bad defensive performance despite giving up less than 20 points. The Colts defense might be the best performing horrible defense in NFL history. Andrew Luck had another game with under 50% completion, but I still think he's the best long-term QB in the 2012 Rookie Class.
5.) Baltimore Ravens (10-5 = 381-321)
The Ravens finally played with some passion and precision. Honestly, I think it is the black uniforms. The Ravens are always great in the all-blacks, like in their near upset of the Patriots in 2007. Those black uniforms are great, and if I were the Ravens I would switch to them full-time.
The Spoiler
4.) Cincinnati Bengals (9-6 = 368-303)
The Bengals have the pieces to be a great team, and considering how most of their top players are rather young, they could be come 2014. Dalton and Green are 2nd year players. Geno Atkins is a 3rd year player. Andre Smith is a 5th year player. Their defense is young and great at generating pressure. For all their faults the Bengals scouting and personnel department has done a great job the last few years. Quietly, they've made the playoffs three times in four years. Now it is just about winning a playoff game.
One of These Three Will be Playing February 5th
3.) Houston Texans (12-3 = 400-303)
They are in this group for two reasons: 1 - I was too lazy to make another tier and 2 - they still have a peak ability good enough to get there and they will still most likely be playing the playoffs at home. That said, that was a weird loss to Minnesota, where their offense just looked awful. They aren't dead, but they are the worst #1 seed in the AFC since maybe the 1997 Chiefs.
2.) New England Patriots (11-4 = 529-331)
A slow performance can be forgiven because every team goes through it. That said, I think it is, again, time to retire the "The Patriots will be so angry they'll score 40". The Patriots aren't some special entity that is above having lazy performances. They don't always respond with a vengeance after a loss. They are a normal team, and that was a normal performance for a team probably overlooking their opponent and flat after losing their #2 seed.
1.) Denver Broncos (12-3 = 443-286)
Ten straight wins. All by at least a TD. Only one other team has done that, and that was the 2005 Colts, who started 13-0, winning all by at least seven points. The Broncos have a top-5 offense and defense, and better than average special teams. They are set perfectly to win a title this year. The only question is can they beat a one-sided team whose one good side is incredible (New England).
NFC
2013 Isn't So Far Away
16.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-9 = 367-377)
In 2009, I decried the McDaniels' era in Denver, and then the Broncos started 6-0, making me recant. Of course, the Broncos finished 2-8, and he was fired a year later. The Bucs started 6-4, I recanted my skepticism of Greg Schiano. Since, they've gone 0-5, losing three at home. The Buccaneers team just doesn't have enough talent, but now they aren't even trying.
15.) Detroit Lions (4-11 = 348-411)
The Lions started 5-0 last year. Since, they are 9-18, including an 0-7 run. That is pathetic. Jim Schwartz will probably keep his job, but it probably is playoffs or fired next season, and deservedly so. Congrats to Calvin, though,
14.) Arizona Cardinals (5-10 = 327-330)
Their defense is really, really good. Guess what teams allows the best Defensive Passer Rating? The Cardinals, at 68.5. That's better than the Bears, Seahawks, Texans, or anyone. Of course, their QBs not named Kevin Kolb have 2 TDs and 21 INTs this season, which is even more surprisingly shitty.
13.) Philadelphia Eagles (4-11 = 273-402)
Another decent effort by the Eagles, but that was a total rookie mistake by Foles at the end. No way you can keep hold of the ball that long. Even if the Int. Grounding wasn't called, there was 1 second left, so Foles almost let time run out. Live for another play, Nick.
12.) Carolina Panthers (6-9 = 313-325)
Another nice win and another good effort by a defense that has gotten dramatically better since last year. I really hope Ron Rivera keeps his job. This team isn't that far away at all. If they turn some of their close losses to close wins, they are a playoff team.
11.) St. Louis Rams (7-7-1 = 286-328)
Another good effort for the Rams. I think they are still a bit away from being able to beat good teams, but they can beat any bad team, they can restrict any mediocre to worse offense. The worst part is suddenly that is a really competitive division.
10.) New Orleans Saints (7-8 = 423-410)
The Saints still are able to look really good, and Drew Brees is 240 yards and 1 TD away from another 5,000 yard 40 TD season, but I don't think the future is that bright with the team. The defense is still mostly atrocious and that division is getting harder. Great job playing spoiler, though.
The Team that can be the "Token Sitting Duck" team of 2013.
9.) Minnesota Vikings (9-6 = 342-314)
That was one of the most surprising wins for any team this season. The Vikings really dominated that game, even without Peterson having a great game. In fact, that was the 2nd time they've beaten a playoff team fairly easily without Peterson having a great game, as they beat the 49ers 24-13 back in Week 3. Win and they're in, which is just amazing, really.
The Muddled Mess
8.) New York Giants (8-7 = 387-337)
If they do sneak in, I'm sure many will say how dangerous they are, but they just aren't that dangerous. Hakeem Nicks isn't healthy, and Eli Manning is having an average season. The real drop, though, is that pass rush which is just completely flaccid right now. Sure, the talent is still there, but if they could really 'flip a switch' then wouldn't it have been more beneficial to flip it two weeks ago.
7.) Dallas Cowboys (8-7 = 358-372)
Tough loss, but if not for some late heroics, it could have been just a bad loss. Tony Romo is now the complete opposite of what he used to be, as he is money late in games and just average in the first three quarters. That defense continues to be an overrated disappointment.
6.) Chicago Bears (9-6 = 349-253)
Most of the Bears losses look a little better in retrospect outside of them being at home. Their recent 1-5 stretch featured losses to the Texans, 49ers, Seahawks, Vikings and Packers. Four of those teams will be playing in the playoffs, and the other has a good shot. They can still slip in, but even if they don't I'll remember one of the more exciting defenses that I have seen.
5.) Washington Redskins (9-6 = 408-370)
I can't believe they are about to go on a 7-game win streak and potentially host a playoff game. The fact that their defense has been acceptable since losing Orakpo and Carriker is a testament to Jim Haslett (lest that statement ever be said again). Just a great job all around.
One of These Four Will Most Likely be Playing Come February 5th
4.) San Francisco 49ers (10-4-1 = 370-260)
Bad loss, but those were really tough conditions. 2nd straight road primetime game against a divisional rival in the driving rain in Seattle. Hard for anyone to win that game. That said, their performance was embarrassing on defense, allowing that offense to do whatever they wanted. The 49ers seemed completely unprepared.
3.) Seattle Seahawks (10-5 = 392-232)
Great win and tough conditions. I find it ridiculous for a team to outscore their opponents by 40 points per game the last three games. Their OT win over the Bears can be looked back to as a turning point for the Seahawks. That defense is something special, but so is the offense, with three receivers all playing well right now.
2.) Green Bay Packers (11-4 = 399-299)
I'm not sure how good they are, but somehow they've managed to swipe up a bye again. They've gone through injuries, and slow play, but they are a scary, scary team in January the way Rodgers is playing right now.
1.) Atlanta Falcons (13-2 = 402-277)
It is easy to doubt them, to hate on them, to say they haven't done anything yet, but outside of the NFC South, they haven't lost a game. In their biggest games at home of the year (vs DEN, NO, NYG), their defense has played great. They have a shot at 14 wins. It is unfair to keep doubting a team that has done nothing but win in a tightly packed conference.
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games*
* - Bringing it back because I had no real reason to remove it last week aside from abject laziness.
16.) New York Jets (6-9) @ Buffalo Bills (5-10) (1:00 - CBS)
15.) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-13) @ Tennessee Titans (5-10) (1:00 - CBS)
14.) Oakland Raiders (4-11) @ San Diego Chargers (6-9) (4:25 - CBS)
These are the games that mean nothing involving teams that are scary to watch. All three will probably be boring games that will have no national attention, nor should they.
13.) Cleveland Browns (5-10) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (7-9) (1:00 - CBS)
12.) Carolina Panthers (6-9) @ New Orleans Saints (7-8) (1:00 - FOX)
These two games are also meaningless in terms of the playoffs as all four teams have been eliminated. There are some interesting aspects to them, though. First, the Browns can look to sweep the Steelers for the first time since being born-again in 1999, and give the Steelers their first sub-.500 season in the Big Ben era. Then, the Panthers and Saints look to see who will end the season hotter, as both could be trendy sleeper picks (or in the Saints' case, a rebound pick) for 2013.
11.) Baltimore Ravens (10-5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (9-6) (1:00 - CBS)
10.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-9) @ Atlanta Falcons (13-2) (1:00 - FOX)
These are the only two games involving playoff teams that mean nothing. Technically, the Ravens could be the #3 seed, but if that means another rematch with the Bengals, and a trip to Denver instead of Houston, I wouldn't want it. The Bengals are locked into the #6 seed. Neither team really has anything to play for, and we could get the dreaded double rest-a-thon. The Falcons are locked into the #1 seed, and while I'm sure they would love to give the Bucs another harrowing loss to end the season, my guess is they rest it up as well.
9.) Kansas City Chiefs (2-13) @ Denver Broncos (12-3) (4:25 - CBS)
8.) Arizona Cardinals (5-10) @ San Francisco 49ers (10-4-1) (4:25 - FOX)
7.) St. Louis Rams (7-7-1) @ Seattle Seahawks (10-5) (4:25 - FOX)
6.) Miami Dolphins (7-8) @ New England Patriots (11-4) (4:25 - CBS)
These are the games where one team is in the playoffs, but is playing for seeding. Ironically, the home team is the team fighting for seeding in each case. They are ranked in perceived order of competitiveness. The Broncos win and they are guaranteed the #2 seed. The 49ers need to win to hold of the Seahawks in the NFC West. The Seahawks are in the playoffs, but a win and a Cards loss gives them the NFC West, so they might do some scoreboard watching and pull guys if the 49ers game gets out of hand. The Pats are interesting. In a perfect world, they probably would be better off with the #4 seed (vs. IND, @ HOU) than #3 (vs.CIN, @DEN), but they still can have the #2 seed, They'll probably scoreboard watch as well with Denver.
5.) Chicago Bears (9-6) @ Detroit Lions (4-11) (1:00 - FOX)
4.) Philadelphia Eagles (4-11) @ New York Giants (8-7) (1:00 - FOX)
These two feature two of the NFC Wild-Card hopefuls against 4-11 opponents. Both the Lions and Eagles have a chance of playing close and maybe pulling out the upset, but I wouldn't count on either. The Bears actually have a pretty clear path. If they win and the Packers beat the Vikings, the Bears are in the playoffs (and get another shot at San Francisco, this time with Cutler and not Jason Campbell). The Giants need more help (Redskins win, Packers win, Lions win). There is a good chance the Giants join the 2002 Bucs as the only NFC Super Bowl winner to not make the playoffs in a 16-game season.
3.) Houston Texans (12-3) @ Indianapolis Colts (10-5) (1:00 - CBS)
This is the game that could have the most potential complications. The Colts actually have nothing to play for. They are locked into the #5 seed, and although they would love to beat Houston and end their run at Home-Field Advantage, and get another big win at home, they are hurting and it might be nice to give Andrew Luck a week off after he threw more than any rookie before. The Texans have to win to get the #1 seed, so they even have something to play for. What screws it all up is that it is almost assuredly going to be Chuck Pagano's return to the sidelines. It is hard to see the Colts resting their guys in Pagano's last home game for 2012, but it probably would be better if they did.
2.) Green Bay Packers (11-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (9-6) (4:25 - FOX)
This is the only game I can see where both teams have something to play for. The Packers need to win to get, somewhat improbably given their start, their injuries and their inconsistent play, the #2 seed. On the other side, if the Vikings win they are the #6 seed. Two more wrinkles into this interesting game. First, is Adrian Peterson's chase of 2,000 yards and potentially Erick Dickerson's record (though he needs about 200 to get that). The second is that if the Vikings win and get that #6 seed, and if the 49ers beat Arizona (quite likely), the Vikings will play the Packers next week in Lambeau.
1.) Dallas Cowboys (8-7) @ Washington Redskins (9-6) (SNF - NBC)
Finally, the only true play-in game of the week. The Giants loss to Baltimore cost us another in Cincinnati and Baltimore. This one is fun because most likely the loser is out. The Cowboys are obviously out with a loss, while the Redskins need a Lions win over the Bears and a Packers win over the Vikings to make it if they lose. Assuming all that away, this is the third time in five years the Cowboys have been involved in such a game in Week 17. In 2008, the played the Eagles for the #6 seed and quite memorably lost 44-6. Last year, they played in New York for the NFC East title (loser wouldn't make the playoffs) and lost less memorably 31-14. Here, the Redskins can complete the trifecta of NFC East teams beating the Cowboys for playoff spots in Week 17, or the Cowboys can make one of the least likely and most memorable trips to the playoffs.
Award Watch
Coach of the Year
3.) Mike Shanahan (WAS)
2.) Bruce Arians (IND)
1.) Pete Carroll (SEA)
Def. Rookie of the Year
3.) Casey Heyward (GB)
2.) Lavonte David (TB)
1.) Janoris Jenkins (STL)
Off. Rookie of the Year
3.) Robert Griffin III (WAS)
2.) Russell Wilson (SEA)
1.) Andrew Luck (IND)
Def. Player of the Year
3.) Aldon Smith (SF)
2.) Von Miller (DEN)
1.) JJ Watt (HOU)
Off. Player of the Year
3.) Aaron Rodgers (GB)
2.) Calvin Johnson (DET)
1.) Adrian Peterson (MIN)
MVP
5.) JJ Watt (HOU)
4.) Tom Brady (NE)
3.) Adrian Peterson (MIN)
2.) Aaron Rodgers (GB)
1.) Peyton Manning (DEN)
Looking Back at Last Week's Picks
Lions (+3.5) over Falcons (WRONG = 0-1 = -1000)
Titans (+12.5) over Packers (WRONG = 0-2 = -1000)
Panthers (-8.5) over Raiders (CORRECT = 1-2 = +1000)
Dolphins (-4.5) over Bills (CORRECT = 2-2 = +1000)
Steelers (-4) over Bengals (WRONG = 2-3 = -1000)
Patriots (-14.5) over Jaguars (WRONG = 2-4 = -1000)
Colts (-6.5) over Chiefs (CORRECT = 3-4 = +1000)
Saints (+3.5*) over Cowboys (CORRECT = 4-4 = +1000)
Eagles (+5.5) over Redskins (WRONG = 4-5 = -1000) (UPSET)
Rams (+3) over Buccaneers (CORRECT = 5-5 = +1000)
Texans (-7) over Vikings (WRONG = 5-6 = -1000)
Chargers (+2.5) over Jets (CORRECT = 6-6 = +1000)
Broncos (-13) over Browns (CORRECT = 7-6 = +1000)
Bears (-5.5) over Cardinals (CORRECT = 8-6 = +1000)
Giants (-2.5) over Ravens (WRONG = 8-7 = -1000) (LOCK)
49ers (-1) over Seahawks (WRONG = 8-8 = -1000)
Week 16: 8-8 (LOCK: 0-1; UPSET: 0-1) (+0)
Year-to-Date: 133-100-7 (LOCK: 12-4; UPSET: 9-7) (+32,600)
Best Pick: I guess the game I didn't care about, picking teh Chargers to beat the Jets 24-20 (they won 27-17), or the Broncos over the Browns 27-10 (they won 34-12).
Power Rankings
AFC
2013 Isn't Too Far Away
16.) Kansas City Chiefs (2-13 = 208-387)
How do you have a player run for 200 yards, another run for 100 yards, and manage to score just 13 points. The Chiefs are just so sad right now, that even when they do what they do well, they can't win. I hope for Romeo's sake no one hires him as a head coach anymore.
15.) Tennessee Titans (5-10 = 292-451)
Another embarrassing loss for the Titans, a team that has had their fair share of them (but also some strange, big wins, like the 37-3 win in Miami). Jake Locker was just awful yesterday, and as Mike Munchak goes out, it is interesting to see if Jake Locker follows him.
14.) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-13 = 235-406)
They played hard, but the biggest play of the game was a mistake that only teams like the Jaguars make, when they had a false start on 3rd and Goal from the 1 down 23-16. Credit them for playing great on defense, but they still have a long way to go.
13.) Oakland Raiders (4-11 = 269-419)
Their defense showed up for the 2nd straight week and showed again what they could have been. Almost as inflaming, Matt Leinart showed why Carson Palmer is still by far the best option the Raiders had at QB this season.
12.) New York Jets (6-9 = 272-347)
I guess Mark Sanchez wasn't the biggest problem. I have no idea how an o-line with Nick Mangold could allow 7 sacks. I could go watch the sacks on Game Rewind, but that means me watching that dreadful game, which I just can't do.
11.) Buffalo Bills (5-10 = 316-426)
Another bad loss for the Bills, who had a most Bills like season. They show some flash, some Gailey-esque creativity on offense, but are nowhere near as talented or deep to make a run.
10.) Cleveland Browns (5-10 = 292-344)
That was a "Your Playing With the Big Boys Now" game for the Browns, who looked competitive for about one drive. The Broncos just do everything better than the Browns, but Cleveland isn't that far off.
9.) San Diego Chargers (6-9 = 326-329)
How amazing is it that Philip Rivers went 11-22 for 165 yards and that was one of his better games of the year. The Chargers defense was incredible, but playing great defense against Greg McElroy when no one is watching is kind of like a tree falling in the woods.
8.) Miami Dolphins (7-8 = 288-289)
Another nice performance by the Dolphins, a team that has been able to win a lot of low-scoring games as Tannehill went through troubles. They have a shot to make it back to .500, but even without a win in Week 17, they had a nice season.
7.) Pittsburgh Steelers (7-8 = 312-304)
It is still hard to believe that Pittsburgh might go under .500. They do miss the playoffs every third year (2006, 2009 and now 2012), but unlike the first two times when they were coming off of Super Bowl wins, this time they were coming of losing a playoff game to Tim Tebow.
Hey, One of You Two Will be Playing on Divisional Sunday
6.) Indianapolis Colts (10-5 = 329-371)
Another win against a bad team, and another bad defensive performance despite giving up less than 20 points. The Colts defense might be the best performing horrible defense in NFL history. Andrew Luck had another game with under 50% completion, but I still think he's the best long-term QB in the 2012 Rookie Class.
5.) Baltimore Ravens (10-5 = 381-321)
The Ravens finally played with some passion and precision. Honestly, I think it is the black uniforms. The Ravens are always great in the all-blacks, like in their near upset of the Patriots in 2007. Those black uniforms are great, and if I were the Ravens I would switch to them full-time.
The Spoiler
4.) Cincinnati Bengals (9-6 = 368-303)
The Bengals have the pieces to be a great team, and considering how most of their top players are rather young, they could be come 2014. Dalton and Green are 2nd year players. Geno Atkins is a 3rd year player. Andre Smith is a 5th year player. Their defense is young and great at generating pressure. For all their faults the Bengals scouting and personnel department has done a great job the last few years. Quietly, they've made the playoffs three times in four years. Now it is just about winning a playoff game.
One of These Three Will be Playing February 5th
3.) Houston Texans (12-3 = 400-303)
They are in this group for two reasons: 1 - I was too lazy to make another tier and 2 - they still have a peak ability good enough to get there and they will still most likely be playing the playoffs at home. That said, that was a weird loss to Minnesota, where their offense just looked awful. They aren't dead, but they are the worst #1 seed in the AFC since maybe the 1997 Chiefs.
2.) New England Patriots (11-4 = 529-331)
A slow performance can be forgiven because every team goes through it. That said, I think it is, again, time to retire the "The Patriots will be so angry they'll score 40". The Patriots aren't some special entity that is above having lazy performances. They don't always respond with a vengeance after a loss. They are a normal team, and that was a normal performance for a team probably overlooking their opponent and flat after losing their #2 seed.
1.) Denver Broncos (12-3 = 443-286)
Ten straight wins. All by at least a TD. Only one other team has done that, and that was the 2005 Colts, who started 13-0, winning all by at least seven points. The Broncos have a top-5 offense and defense, and better than average special teams. They are set perfectly to win a title this year. The only question is can they beat a one-sided team whose one good side is incredible (New England).
NFC
2013 Isn't So Far Away
16.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-9 = 367-377)
In 2009, I decried the McDaniels' era in Denver, and then the Broncos started 6-0, making me recant. Of course, the Broncos finished 2-8, and he was fired a year later. The Bucs started 6-4, I recanted my skepticism of Greg Schiano. Since, they've gone 0-5, losing three at home. The Buccaneers team just doesn't have enough talent, but now they aren't even trying.
15.) Detroit Lions (4-11 = 348-411)
The Lions started 5-0 last year. Since, they are 9-18, including an 0-7 run. That is pathetic. Jim Schwartz will probably keep his job, but it probably is playoffs or fired next season, and deservedly so. Congrats to Calvin, though,
14.) Arizona Cardinals (5-10 = 327-330)
Their defense is really, really good. Guess what teams allows the best Defensive Passer Rating? The Cardinals, at 68.5. That's better than the Bears, Seahawks, Texans, or anyone. Of course, their QBs not named Kevin Kolb have 2 TDs and 21 INTs this season, which is even more surprisingly shitty.
13.) Philadelphia Eagles (4-11 = 273-402)
Another decent effort by the Eagles, but that was a total rookie mistake by Foles at the end. No way you can keep hold of the ball that long. Even if the Int. Grounding wasn't called, there was 1 second left, so Foles almost let time run out. Live for another play, Nick.
12.) Carolina Panthers (6-9 = 313-325)
Another nice win and another good effort by a defense that has gotten dramatically better since last year. I really hope Ron Rivera keeps his job. This team isn't that far away at all. If they turn some of their close losses to close wins, they are a playoff team.
11.) St. Louis Rams (7-7-1 = 286-328)
Another good effort for the Rams. I think they are still a bit away from being able to beat good teams, but they can beat any bad team, they can restrict any mediocre to worse offense. The worst part is suddenly that is a really competitive division.
10.) New Orleans Saints (7-8 = 423-410)
The Saints still are able to look really good, and Drew Brees is 240 yards and 1 TD away from another 5,000 yard 40 TD season, but I don't think the future is that bright with the team. The defense is still mostly atrocious and that division is getting harder. Great job playing spoiler, though.
The Team that can be the "Token Sitting Duck" team of 2013.
9.) Minnesota Vikings (9-6 = 342-314)
That was one of the most surprising wins for any team this season. The Vikings really dominated that game, even without Peterson having a great game. In fact, that was the 2nd time they've beaten a playoff team fairly easily without Peterson having a great game, as they beat the 49ers 24-13 back in Week 3. Win and they're in, which is just amazing, really.
The Muddled Mess
8.) New York Giants (8-7 = 387-337)
If they do sneak in, I'm sure many will say how dangerous they are, but they just aren't that dangerous. Hakeem Nicks isn't healthy, and Eli Manning is having an average season. The real drop, though, is that pass rush which is just completely flaccid right now. Sure, the talent is still there, but if they could really 'flip a switch' then wouldn't it have been more beneficial to flip it two weeks ago.
7.) Dallas Cowboys (8-7 = 358-372)
Tough loss, but if not for some late heroics, it could have been just a bad loss. Tony Romo is now the complete opposite of what he used to be, as he is money late in games and just average in the first three quarters. That defense continues to be an overrated disappointment.
6.) Chicago Bears (9-6 = 349-253)
Most of the Bears losses look a little better in retrospect outside of them being at home. Their recent 1-5 stretch featured losses to the Texans, 49ers, Seahawks, Vikings and Packers. Four of those teams will be playing in the playoffs, and the other has a good shot. They can still slip in, but even if they don't I'll remember one of the more exciting defenses that I have seen.
5.) Washington Redskins (9-6 = 408-370)
I can't believe they are about to go on a 7-game win streak and potentially host a playoff game. The fact that their defense has been acceptable since losing Orakpo and Carriker is a testament to Jim Haslett (lest that statement ever be said again). Just a great job all around.
One of These Four Will Most Likely be Playing Come February 5th
4.) San Francisco 49ers (10-4-1 = 370-260)
Bad loss, but those were really tough conditions. 2nd straight road primetime game against a divisional rival in the driving rain in Seattle. Hard for anyone to win that game. That said, their performance was embarrassing on defense, allowing that offense to do whatever they wanted. The 49ers seemed completely unprepared.
3.) Seattle Seahawks (10-5 = 392-232)
Great win and tough conditions. I find it ridiculous for a team to outscore their opponents by 40 points per game the last three games. Their OT win over the Bears can be looked back to as a turning point for the Seahawks. That defense is something special, but so is the offense, with three receivers all playing well right now.
2.) Green Bay Packers (11-4 = 399-299)
I'm not sure how good they are, but somehow they've managed to swipe up a bye again. They've gone through injuries, and slow play, but they are a scary, scary team in January the way Rodgers is playing right now.
1.) Atlanta Falcons (13-2 = 402-277)
It is easy to doubt them, to hate on them, to say they haven't done anything yet, but outside of the NFC South, they haven't lost a game. In their biggest games at home of the year (vs DEN, NO, NYG), their defense has played great. They have a shot at 14 wins. It is unfair to keep doubting a team that has done nothing but win in a tightly packed conference.
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games*
* - Bringing it back because I had no real reason to remove it last week aside from abject laziness.
16.) New York Jets (6-9) @ Buffalo Bills (5-10) (1:00 - CBS)
15.) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-13) @ Tennessee Titans (5-10) (1:00 - CBS)
14.) Oakland Raiders (4-11) @ San Diego Chargers (6-9) (4:25 - CBS)
These are the games that mean nothing involving teams that are scary to watch. All three will probably be boring games that will have no national attention, nor should they.
13.) Cleveland Browns (5-10) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (7-9) (1:00 - CBS)
12.) Carolina Panthers (6-9) @ New Orleans Saints (7-8) (1:00 - FOX)
These two games are also meaningless in terms of the playoffs as all four teams have been eliminated. There are some interesting aspects to them, though. First, the Browns can look to sweep the Steelers for the first time since being born-again in 1999, and give the Steelers their first sub-.500 season in the Big Ben era. Then, the Panthers and Saints look to see who will end the season hotter, as both could be trendy sleeper picks (or in the Saints' case, a rebound pick) for 2013.
11.) Baltimore Ravens (10-5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (9-6) (1:00 - CBS)
10.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-9) @ Atlanta Falcons (13-2) (1:00 - FOX)
These are the only two games involving playoff teams that mean nothing. Technically, the Ravens could be the #3 seed, but if that means another rematch with the Bengals, and a trip to Denver instead of Houston, I wouldn't want it. The Bengals are locked into the #6 seed. Neither team really has anything to play for, and we could get the dreaded double rest-a-thon. The Falcons are locked into the #1 seed, and while I'm sure they would love to give the Bucs another harrowing loss to end the season, my guess is they rest it up as well.
9.) Kansas City Chiefs (2-13) @ Denver Broncos (12-3) (4:25 - CBS)
8.) Arizona Cardinals (5-10) @ San Francisco 49ers (10-4-1) (4:25 - FOX)
7.) St. Louis Rams (7-7-1) @ Seattle Seahawks (10-5) (4:25 - FOX)
6.) Miami Dolphins (7-8) @ New England Patriots (11-4) (4:25 - CBS)
These are the games where one team is in the playoffs, but is playing for seeding. Ironically, the home team is the team fighting for seeding in each case. They are ranked in perceived order of competitiveness. The Broncos win and they are guaranteed the #2 seed. The 49ers need to win to hold of the Seahawks in the NFC West. The Seahawks are in the playoffs, but a win and a Cards loss gives them the NFC West, so they might do some scoreboard watching and pull guys if the 49ers game gets out of hand. The Pats are interesting. In a perfect world, they probably would be better off with the #4 seed (vs. IND, @ HOU) than #3 (vs.CIN, @DEN), but they still can have the #2 seed, They'll probably scoreboard watch as well with Denver.
5.) Chicago Bears (9-6) @ Detroit Lions (4-11) (1:00 - FOX)
4.) Philadelphia Eagles (4-11) @ New York Giants (8-7) (1:00 - FOX)
These two feature two of the NFC Wild-Card hopefuls against 4-11 opponents. Both the Lions and Eagles have a chance of playing close and maybe pulling out the upset, but I wouldn't count on either. The Bears actually have a pretty clear path. If they win and the Packers beat the Vikings, the Bears are in the playoffs (and get another shot at San Francisco, this time with Cutler and not Jason Campbell). The Giants need more help (Redskins win, Packers win, Lions win). There is a good chance the Giants join the 2002 Bucs as the only NFC Super Bowl winner to not make the playoffs in a 16-game season.
3.) Houston Texans (12-3) @ Indianapolis Colts (10-5) (1:00 - CBS)
This is the game that could have the most potential complications. The Colts actually have nothing to play for. They are locked into the #5 seed, and although they would love to beat Houston and end their run at Home-Field Advantage, and get another big win at home, they are hurting and it might be nice to give Andrew Luck a week off after he threw more than any rookie before. The Texans have to win to get the #1 seed, so they even have something to play for. What screws it all up is that it is almost assuredly going to be Chuck Pagano's return to the sidelines. It is hard to see the Colts resting their guys in Pagano's last home game for 2012, but it probably would be better if they did.
2.) Green Bay Packers (11-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (9-6) (4:25 - FOX)
This is the only game I can see where both teams have something to play for. The Packers need to win to get, somewhat improbably given their start, their injuries and their inconsistent play, the #2 seed. On the other side, if the Vikings win they are the #6 seed. Two more wrinkles into this interesting game. First, is Adrian Peterson's chase of 2,000 yards and potentially Erick Dickerson's record (though he needs about 200 to get that). The second is that if the Vikings win and get that #6 seed, and if the 49ers beat Arizona (quite likely), the Vikings will play the Packers next week in Lambeau.
1.) Dallas Cowboys (8-7) @ Washington Redskins (9-6) (SNF - NBC)
Finally, the only true play-in game of the week. The Giants loss to Baltimore cost us another in Cincinnati and Baltimore. This one is fun because most likely the loser is out. The Cowboys are obviously out with a loss, while the Redskins need a Lions win over the Bears and a Packers win over the Vikings to make it if they lose. Assuming all that away, this is the third time in five years the Cowboys have been involved in such a game in Week 17. In 2008, the played the Eagles for the #6 seed and quite memorably lost 44-6. Last year, they played in New York for the NFC East title (loser wouldn't make the playoffs) and lost less memorably 31-14. Here, the Redskins can complete the trifecta of NFC East teams beating the Cowboys for playoff spots in Week 17, or the Cowboys can make one of the least likely and most memorable trips to the playoffs.
Award Watch
Coach of the Year
3.) Mike Shanahan (WAS)
2.) Bruce Arians (IND)
1.) Pete Carroll (SEA)
Def. Rookie of the Year
3.) Casey Heyward (GB)
2.) Lavonte David (TB)
1.) Janoris Jenkins (STL)
Off. Rookie of the Year
3.) Robert Griffin III (WAS)
2.) Russell Wilson (SEA)
1.) Andrew Luck (IND)
Def. Player of the Year
3.) Aldon Smith (SF)
2.) Von Miller (DEN)
1.) JJ Watt (HOU)
Off. Player of the Year
3.) Aaron Rodgers (GB)
2.) Calvin Johnson (DET)
1.) Adrian Peterson (MIN)
MVP
5.) JJ Watt (HOU)
4.) Tom Brady (NE)
3.) Adrian Peterson (MIN)
2.) Aaron Rodgers (GB)
1.) Peyton Manning (DEN)
