An interesting week of picks and games, so let's get to it.
Broncos (-10) over Raiders (CORRECT = 1-0 = +1000)
Ravens (+3) over Redskins (WRONG = 1-1 = -1000) (UPSET)
Browns (-6.5) over Chiefs (CORRECT = 2-1 = +1000)
Steelers (-6.5) over Chargers (WRONG = 2-2 = -1000) (LOCK)
Colts (-5) over Titans (WRONG = 2-3 = -1000)
Jets (-3) over Jaguars (CORRECT = 3-3 = +1000)
Bears (-3) over Vikings (WRONG = 3-4 = -1000)
Panthers (+3.5*) over Falcons (CORRECT = 4-4 = +1000)
Eagles (+7.5) over Buccaneers (CORRECT = 5-4 = +1000)
Rams (+3) over Bills (CORRECT = 6-4 = +1000)
Bengals (-2.5*) over Cowboys (WRONG = 6-5 = -1200)
49ers (-10) over Dolphins (CORRECT = 7-5 = +1000)
Cardinals (+10) over Seahawks (WRONG = 7-6 = -1000)
Giants (-5) over Saints (CORRECT = 8-6 = +1000)
Lions (+7.5*) over Packers (CORRECT = 9-6 = +1000)
Patriots (-3) over Texans (CORRECT = 10-6 = +1000)
Week 14: 10-6 (LOCK: 0-1; UPSET: 0-1) (+3,800)
Year-to-Date: 116-85-7 (LOCK: 11-3; UPSET: 9-5) (+30,600)
Best Picks: I picked the 49ers to win 24-13, and they won 27-13. Of course, I'll do a special worst pick, as I picked the Seahawks to win 20-13 (Cards cover), and they won by a tidy 58-0.
Power Rankings
AFC
Welcome to the "Insert Average QB Here" Sweepstakes
16.) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11 = 216-359)
I still really want to know where exactly is Maurice Jones-Drew these days? Is he still alive? Has he retired? Is he going to emerge a couple months from now in Ricky Williams' house?
15.) Kansas City Chiefs (2-11 = 195-352)
It is hard to have your running back gain 165 yards on 18 carries and still lose by 23. It is worse to do this when you are losing to the Cleveland Browns. The Chiefs never stop amazing me with their awful play.
14.) Oakland Raiders (3-10 = 248-402)
It was nice to see the pass rush active for once, but they can't cover anyone with their lack of corners. I want to think the Jon Gruden return rumors are true, but I don't think that is fair to Dennis Allen.
13.) Tennessee Titans (4-9 = 271-386)
I'll probably do this around the time the year ends, but I want to give an award to each team, and the Titans definitely get the "Lord Knows What Will Happen This Week" award, as they've blown 20-7 leads, lost 51-7 at home and won 37-3 on the road. Just a bizarre team.
Mediocrity is the Bane of a Team's Existence
12.) Buffalo Bills (5-8 = 289-352)
Next week they get true mediocrity as they travel to Toronto to play the Seahawks, but the Bills easily could have won that game. The Fred Jackson injury might finally get CJ Spiller some games as a full-time back, as he is the one shinning light in another lost Bills season.
11.) Miami Dolphins (5-8 = 240-276)
Remember when the Dolphins were 4-3 and went to play the 4-3 Colts? The Dolphins are 1-6 since that game (the Colts, using what can only be described as Dark Arts, are 6-1). Ryan Tannehill has fallen off, and despite decent performances, are in for another long winter.
10.) New York Jets (6-7 = 245-306)
The fact that they are still alive is just amazing. What makes it worse is they dropped that truly winnable game in Foxboro earlier this year, or they could be over .500. One piece of good news is there is no way their Week 16 and 17 opponents rest starters this time around like three years ago.
9.) Cleveland Browns (5-8 = 259-272)
Three straight wins, and don't look now but if RGIII is out or gimpy, they could get a 4th. Of course, there are rumors they are looking to sign Mike Lombardi and Josh McDaneils as a package GM/Coach for next season, which is so utterly moronic, it makes hiring Butch Davis seem smart.
8.) San Diego Chargers (5-8 = 292-281)
The Chargers somehow have a +11 point differential but are three games under .500. Just another dead season in San Diego. Despite beating down the Steelers, Philip Rivers is so amazingly innacurate now that it is kind of sad. Here was the best QB in the NFL from 2008-2010 statistically just playing like garbage. Sad.
The Team That Still won't Admit How Bad they Are
7.) Indianapolis Colts (9-4 = 292-329)
I have no idea how they are doing it. They were down 20-7, playing soulless football (granted, that Pick-6 was absolutely the wrong call), yet somehow won despite Andrew Luck having a bad day. This wasn't like Luck's bad, but quietly good, day against Detroit. This was just a bad performance, yet they still won. Amazing, really. The best part is they might actually draw Baltimore in Round 1, the one opponent that wouldn't fleece them 45-10.
The Slightly Depressing Three Ring Circus
6.) Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6 = 278-264)
I have no idea how to rank these three AFC North teams, as they all lost in excruciating fashion on Sunday, but I'm putting the Steelers last for losing to the worst team of the three and losing at home by 10 (but really much more, as it was 27-3 at one point). Roethlisberger, to me, actually seemed healthy, but that team was just awful around him.
5.) Baltimore Ravens (9-4 = 331-273)
They might really lose four straight games after a 9-2 start with the Broncos and Giants coming to Baltimore the next two weeks. My gut feeling is they win one of those two games, but it will definitely make for an interesting time in Baltimore. Ray Lewis is returning, but he can't solve a suddenly average defense. I do like the moxie to fire Cam Cameron this late in a season, though.
4.) Cincinnati Bengals (7-6 = 321-280)
I'm not quite sure how they blew that game. It isn't like Tony Romo had a great game. I guess it was an awful performance in the Red Zone that did them in, as Dalton seemed to move it easily from 20 to 20. That Geno Atkins is a superstar, quietly having an awesome season at a true DT spot. Their pass rush is so good.
If One of these Three Don't Make It, then We have a Problem
3.) Houston Texans (11-2 = 365-263)
Well, that was bad. For the 2nd Time this season, the Texans gave up 42 points to a premier QB in a national game. The difference here was, at least to me, it was more the offenses fault for screwing up promising drives in that 1st half. I credit Gary Kubiak for going for it on 4th down twice in the 1st Half, but it didn't work, and made what could have been a 21-13 type game at halftime into 21-0. They have to move on. They still have the inside track at the #1 seed, but they don't seem like a team that could beat Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in the playoffs.
2.) Denver Broncos (10-3 = 375-257)
Another Denver win that easily could have been far more comfortable than it was. The Broncos defense continues to stifle opponents, but gave up some long plays in the game. The offense is starting to have trouble scoring in the Red Zone. But these are relative problems, nitpicks for as complete a team as there is in the NFL.
1.) New England Patriots (10-3 = 472-274)
They return to #1 with a dominant performance against the prior-to-NFL's best team. They still get absurd fumble luck, as they fumbled twice in the Red Zone and recovered both (including one for a fumble). The defense was impressive I guess, but I still feel they can be exposed against a team with more than one weapon. Oddly, I still think the Ravens are an awful matchup for New England.
Projected AFC Standings
1.) Houston Texans (14-2 = vs.IND (w), vs.MIN (w), @IND (w))
2.) New England Patriots (13-3 = vs.SF (w), @JAX (w), vs.MIA (w))
3.) Denver Broncos (13-3 = @BAL (w), vs.CLE (w), vs.KC (w))
4.) Baltimore Ravens (10-6 = vs.DEN (L), vs.NYG (w), @CIN (L))
5.) Indianapolis Colts (10-6 = @HOU (L), @KC (w), vs.HOU (L))
6.) Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7 = @DAL (w), vs.CIN (w), vs.CLE (L))
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7.) Cincinnati Bengals (9-7 = @PHI (w), @PIT (L), vs.BAL (W))
NFC
Welcome to the "Insert Average QB Here" Sweepstakes
16.) Arizona Cardinals (4-9 = 186-292)
I guess it wasn't just Ryan Lindley then?
15.) Philadelphia Eagles (4-9 = 240-341)
Great win, and finally a performance by the defense that ended their run of historically putrid play against the pass. Nick Foles looks pretty good to me, and I think whatever coach replaces Andy Reid should at least attempt to stick with Foles, especially with the sullen crop of QBs in the draft.
2013 Could Bring Good Things
14.) Carolina Panthers (4-9 = 265-312)
They aren't the best 4-9 team, but I think they will have a .500 or better season next year. Cam Newton is still a good QB in my eyes. Some of the plays he can make are incredible. That defense has been playing well since getting healthy, and they absolutely deserved that win on Sunday.
13.) New Orleans Saints (5-8 = 348-379)
That loss essentially ends their season. What a failure for the Saints, as they fought all the way back to a 5-5 record, but then the schedule caught up with them as they had three straight games against current division leaders and lost them all by double digits. The Saints offense is nowhere near what it was a year ago, and some of that is on Brees, who is forcing way too many balls to Jimmy Graham.
12.) Detroit Lions (4-9 = 320-342)
Here is a team that could go 13-3 next year and I wouldn't be surprised. I really hope they don't fire Jim Schwartz. They have everything except they keep making dumb mistakes. It is mostly Stafford, who's turnovers led to return TDs that proved to be the difference in both games against Green Bay. The Lions have all the pieces, but just need to put it all together. It is coming.
The Teams that are Alive in Only the Mathematical Sense
11.) St. Louis Rams (6-6-1 = 236-279)
Credit them for pulling off three straight wins to make their season much better, and credit Jeff Fisher for keeping that team competitive. They were once 3-2, and then went in a 0-4-1 stretch, but have rebounded. They still haven't lost to an NFC West opponent, and that could be huge with a game in Seattle in Week 17.
10.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7 = 354-308)
That was a crushing loss. So many people liked them before the season, and then even more through the season when they stayed competitive. They still have a good point differential and nice pieces, but you can't lose to those types of teams and seriously be a playoff contender.
9.) Minnesota Vikings (7-6 = 283-286)
They keep staying .500 or better mainly because of Adrian Peterson. At least that game was won with the addition of a defense that basically scored 14 points by itself, but Adrian Peterson continues to prop up the league's most flaccid passing game. At least Ponder doesn't turn it over three or four times like those so-called 'quarterbacks' in Arizona.
The Sharks, Waiting for the Giants to Slip into the Water
8.) Dallas Cowboys (7-6 = 300-314)
Big win for a team that has often seemed a little mentally weak. They still seem to play better on the road than at home, which is bad considering they have two home games upcoming. I'll give credit to Tony Romo for coming up big at the end after a mostly bad game through three quarters, and that defense for forcing field goals, but if AJ Green didn't have an uncharacteristically drop-heavy day, they lose and their season is all but over.
7.) Washington Redskins (7-6 = 343-329)
Alfred Morris is a beast. That run game is the reason they are winning, not RGIII. I don't admit that RGIII is having a great season, and he has probably wrestled away the Offensive Rookie of the Year award away from Luck, but he has a dependable running game to lean on. They have a legitimate chance of going from 3-6 to 10-6, which would be one of the great runs of recent memory to end a season.
We'll Know in Just One More Week
6.) Chicago Bears (8-5 = 308-219)
I actually don't think anything is wrong with their defense, which essentially gave up just 7 points in that game, as the Vikings returned two picks for a TD and to the 5-yard line. The Bears offense needs to play better. Luckily for them, they get two winnable games after next week, and if they go 10-6, it would be hard for them not to make the playoffs, but it would be huge to beat the Packers in the return leg. They still wouldn't have the division if the do win, but at least it will make them much more likely to make it to the playoffs.
5.) Green Bay Packers (9-4 = 323-279)
There are three 9-4 teams in the NFL, and while the Packers probably are the best of the three, all three are slightly underwhelming. Aaron Rodgers had an average day, and that offense is still nothing close to what it was last season, but they continue to win these games. Amazingly, they can get the #2 seed after starting the season 2-3. That says more about the NFC as a whole, as the NFC has become a far more deep and balanced conference than the ultra-top-heavy AFC.
If One of These Four Don't Make it, then We have Slightly Less of a Problem
4.) Seattle Seahawks (8-5 = 300-202)
That was impressive, but rarely will a team be that dominant two weeks in a row, so look for a possible struggle this week in Toronto. The Seahawks defense is playing out of its mind right now, but so is that offense. Russell Wilson didn't have a great game, but other than the now-benched Alex Smith, few do against the Cardinals defense. Marshawn Lynch picked it up, though, with a great game.
3.) Atlanta Falcons (11-2 = 337-259)
They still have a firm grasp over that #1 seed, and a 49ers loss this weekend all but clinches it, but the Falcons still have a load of problems. They are slow in the beginning of games too much, and that offense is getting way too pass-heavy right now. Their defense also seems a step slower outdoors, which, I guess, wouldn't be a problem in the playoffs.
2.) New York Giants (8-5 = 373-270)
That was, maybe, the worst performance in a 52-27 game, but the Giants continue to force a ridiculous amount of turnovers, and look like the scariest team in the NFC. There are serious questions about them winning that division, and potentially even making the playoffs at all, but if they get in, I can absolutely see them going on a run. The one difference this time, though, is the Giants have been good enough to make it less of a surprise in isolation.
1.) San Francisco 49ers (9-3-1 = 316-184)
I still want to find flaws with the move to Kaepernick, and I still don't think it makes the team any better in 2012, but after their 27-13 win over the Dolphins, I did ask myself: what would the score have been had Alex Smith played? And the answer is probably around a 27-13 win. We all expect the 49ers to be better with Kaepernick for the move to be paid off, but as long as they are about the same then the move was fine. We'll find out more this weekend, but I still think the 49ers are the class of the NFC from a talent perspective.
NFC Playoff Projections
1.) Atlanta Falcons (13-3 = vs.NYG (L), @DET (w), vs.TB (w))
2.) San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1 = @NE (L), @SEA (w), vs.ARZ (w))
3.) Green Bay Packers (11-5 = @CHI (L), vs.TEN (w), @MIN (w)
4.) New York Giants (10-6 = @ATL (w), @BAL (L), vs.PHI (w))
5.) Seattle Seahawks (10-6 = @BUF (w), vs.SF (L), vs.STL (w))
6.) Chicago Bears (10-6 = vs.CHI (w), @ARZ (w), @DET (L))
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7.) Washington Redskins (9-7 = @CLE (L), @PHI (w), vs.DAL (w))
Looking Ahead to This Week's Games
Quick Note: This is probably the best week of football games of the year. Of course, it is also the weekend before my two finals, so I'm not sure when I'll actually watch these games. I might try to avoid modern society until after my last final on Tuesday ends. I've done this before (2010 playoffs) but that time I was in India. A little easier to avoid finding out the scores when you are in a country that doesn't know of the existence of the NFL.
16.) Kansas City Chiefs (2-11) @ Oakland Raiders (3-10) (4:25 - CBS)
15.) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11) @ Miami Dolphins (5-8) (1:00 - CBS)
14.) New York Jets (6-7) @ Tennessee Titans (4-9) (MNF - ESPN)
13.) Detroit Lions (4-9) @ Arizona Cardinals (4-9) (1:00 - FOX)
12.) Carolina Panthers (4-9) @ San Diego Chargers (5-8) (4:05 - FOX)
11.) Cincinnati Bengals (7-6) @ Philadelphia Eagles (4-9) (TNF - NFLN)
I call it "Let's Get This Shit Out of the Way and Enjoy Some Real Football" Sunday, as all these games feature at least one bad team. Thankfully, most of the bad teams this week are playing against other bad teams. Only two of these games have any sort of playoff implication, and one of those is due to the fact that the Jets have some sort of playoff chance. The worst part about this set of games is that two of them are two of the three primetime games. The TNF games are usually bad, but in what world would Jets @ Titans ever have been a good game at this point in the season.
10.) Seattle Seahawks (8-5) @ Buffalo Bills (5-8) (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) @ New Orleans Saints (5-8) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "I have No Idea What to Call It, but they are Better Than That Last Set" Sunday, as the Seahawks travel to Toronto to play a dead Bills team. This is the last road game for the Seahawks this season, and a win here would really help their chase of the NFC West title. The Bucs and Saints are playing a game that could easily end 45-38, but since neither team is making the playoffs, who, other than fantasy owners, cares?
8.) Indianapolis Colts (9-4) @ Houston Texans (11-2) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "The Worst Game with Two Teams that are a Combined 20-6 Ever" Sunday, as I can really see the Colts losing by 30. The Texans are much better than that thing we saw on Monday Night, and the Colts have absolutely no one that has a prayer of blocking JJ Watt, or really stopping Andre Johnson. This could be billed as a game for the division, but it most likely won't be.
7.) Minnesota Vikings (7-6) @ St. Louis Rams (6-6-1) (1:00 - FOX)
6.) Washington Redskins (7-6) @ Cleveland Browns (5-8) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Survivor Sunday" as the Vikings, Rams and Redskins look to win and keep their playoff hopes alive. the Redskins are probably in best position to lose this game and still make the playoffs because of the Giants' schedule, but a loss would be crippling for them. The Vikings and Rams are the worst two teams in the NFC Wild Card Chase, and the loser is basically out. The winner has a glimmer of hope, though. Just the fact that this is true about this game in Week 15 is amazing.
5.) Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) @ Dallas Cowboys (7-6) (4:25 - CBS)
I call it "Nostalgia Sunday" as the Steelers and Cowboys have a matchup that for many evokes memories of Super Bowls past, of dominant dynasties in the 70's, and all that other sappy crap. For me, though, it evokes memories of Week 14 in 2008, the last time these two met, when the 8-4 Cowboys and 10-2 Steelers battled it out in Heinz Field, and in a old-fasioned smashmouth game, the Steelers came back from 13-3 down in the 4th Quarter to win 20-13 on an Ike Taylor pick-6. It was, as Mike Tomlin said afterwards, a "beautiful game." Anyway, this one is in Dallas, so it probably won't be as picturesque.
4.) Denver Broncos (10-3) @ Baltimore Ravens (9-4) (1:00 - CBS)
3.) San Francisco 49ers (9-3-1) @ New England Patriots (10-3) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "Playoff Positioning" Sunday, as all four teams are pretty sure bets to make the playoffs (the Broncos and Pats have already clinched, and one more win by the other two in their remaining games gets them in without any outside help), but this game will go a long way towards seeding. The Broncos might be better off with the #4 seed, as that draws Indy in Round 1 and avoids a trip to New England in Round 2. Of course, they are still one slip-up by the Pats away from a 1st Round Bye. The 49ers look to hold off the Packers for that #2 seed in the NFC, as the Pats look to hold off the Broncos in the AFC. That game can reaffirm the Pats position as the league's best team, or show the world that they are mortal and the Jim Harbaugh made the right choice.
1.) Green Bay Packers (9-4) @ Chicago Bears (8-5) (1:00 - FOX)
A win by the Packers all but wraps up the division, and a win by the Bears keeps the race going. Had the Bears won one of their last two games and entered this at 9-4, it would have been the #1 game in the Week, but with an 8-5 record, a Bears win doesn't give them the inside track to the division title. A Bears win will go a long way in getting them to the playoffs, though.
2.) New York Giants (8-5) @ Atlanta Falcons (11-2) (1:00 - FOX)
Just a great game, but I have no idea why it needs to be played at 1PM. The Giants are playing for a division still, and a loss here really hurts with a trip to Baltimore next week. It would be an epic collapse if the Giants don't win the division. A win by the Falcons all but wraps up the #1 seed, and finally will quiet some of the doubters as the Falcons can beat a team with a load of playoff pedigree. The Giants get another chance to beat one of the NFC's best, as they've done in all their major games this year. A great game with tons of storylines.
Coach of the Year
3.) Mike Shanahan (WAS)
2.) Gary Kubiak (HOU)
1.) Pete Carroll (SEA)
Kubiak is still up there, but that is because it is hard to come up with good candidates. I still don't see any way an interim coach wins it, but Bruce Arians, by the outline of the award, probably is the best candidate. Pete Carroll made a gutsy decision to go with Russell Wilson and it paid off quite well, and Mike Shanahan's offense has made Washington into one of the league's most efficient and exciting teams.
Defensive Player of the Year
3.) Aldon Smith (OLB - SF)
2.) Von Miller (OLB - DEN)
1.) JJ Watt (DE - HOU)
Aldon Smith picked up two more sacks, but as recent DPOTY votes have shown, it takes more than just a high sack total to win the award. Jared Allen had 22.0 last year and lost to Terrell Suggs, who arguably had the better overall season. This year, Von Miller and JJ Watt are having better overall seasons. I still have an edge to Watt for doing it at a tougher position to pile up those types of numbers.
Offensive Player of the Year
3.) Peyton Manning (QB - IND)
2.) Calvin Johnson (WR - DET)
1.) Adrian Peterson (RB - MIN)
Manning is still in the running as the best QB statistically this year, but Brady and Rodgers are right there. Calvin is still on pace to break Jerry Rice's yardage record, but to me his lack of TDs hurts him. Peterson has the TDs, but also a legitimate chance at 2,000 yards for a team with absolutely no passing game to take any pressure off him.
MVP
5.) JJ Watt (DE - HOU)
4.) Adrian Peterson (RB - MIN)
3.) Tom Brady (QB - NE)
2.) Aaron Rodgers (QB - GB)
1.) Peyton Manning (QB - DEN)
Watt is still there for having an ungodly impact as a 3-4 DE. Peterson remains, and is closing in on the top three, for being the sole reason his team is above .500 and still in the Wild Card hunt. Then we get the top-three QBs. Unlike baseball, there is a separate award for OPOTY and MVP, so for MVP I look at things like situation and narrative. Rodgers has had his two main targets in and out of the lineup, has had a revolving door at tackle and no run game and is about 95% as good as last year. Brady has had some of these things (no Hernandez and then no Gronk, revolving door at guard) but has a great run game. Manning joined an 8-8 team that should have gone 6-10, and has led them to a 10-3 record. He's changed that franchise, made Demarryius Thomas into one of the premier weapons in the NFL. He embodies what 'most valuable' is all about.
Broncos (-10) over Raiders (CORRECT = 1-0 = +1000)
Ravens (+3) over Redskins (WRONG = 1-1 = -1000) (UPSET)
Browns (-6.5) over Chiefs (CORRECT = 2-1 = +1000)
Steelers (-6.5) over Chargers (WRONG = 2-2 = -1000) (LOCK)
Colts (-5) over Titans (WRONG = 2-3 = -1000)
Jets (-3) over Jaguars (CORRECT = 3-3 = +1000)
Bears (-3) over Vikings (WRONG = 3-4 = -1000)
Panthers (+3.5*) over Falcons (CORRECT = 4-4 = +1000)
Eagles (+7.5) over Buccaneers (CORRECT = 5-4 = +1000)
Rams (+3) over Bills (CORRECT = 6-4 = +1000)
Bengals (-2.5*) over Cowboys (WRONG = 6-5 = -1200)
49ers (-10) over Dolphins (CORRECT = 7-5 = +1000)
Cardinals (+10) over Seahawks (WRONG = 7-6 = -1000)
Giants (-5) over Saints (CORRECT = 8-6 = +1000)
Lions (+7.5*) over Packers (CORRECT = 9-6 = +1000)
Patriots (-3) over Texans (CORRECT = 10-6 = +1000)
Week 14: 10-6 (LOCK: 0-1; UPSET: 0-1) (+3,800)
Year-to-Date: 116-85-7 (LOCK: 11-3; UPSET: 9-5) (+30,600)
Best Picks: I picked the 49ers to win 24-13, and they won 27-13. Of course, I'll do a special worst pick, as I picked the Seahawks to win 20-13 (Cards cover), and they won by a tidy 58-0.
Power Rankings
AFC
Welcome to the "Insert Average QB Here" Sweepstakes
16.) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11 = 216-359)
I still really want to know where exactly is Maurice Jones-Drew these days? Is he still alive? Has he retired? Is he going to emerge a couple months from now in Ricky Williams' house?
15.) Kansas City Chiefs (2-11 = 195-352)
It is hard to have your running back gain 165 yards on 18 carries and still lose by 23. It is worse to do this when you are losing to the Cleveland Browns. The Chiefs never stop amazing me with their awful play.
14.) Oakland Raiders (3-10 = 248-402)
It was nice to see the pass rush active for once, but they can't cover anyone with their lack of corners. I want to think the Jon Gruden return rumors are true, but I don't think that is fair to Dennis Allen.
13.) Tennessee Titans (4-9 = 271-386)
I'll probably do this around the time the year ends, but I want to give an award to each team, and the Titans definitely get the "Lord Knows What Will Happen This Week" award, as they've blown 20-7 leads, lost 51-7 at home and won 37-3 on the road. Just a bizarre team.
Mediocrity is the Bane of a Team's Existence
12.) Buffalo Bills (5-8 = 289-352)
Next week they get true mediocrity as they travel to Toronto to play the Seahawks, but the Bills easily could have won that game. The Fred Jackson injury might finally get CJ Spiller some games as a full-time back, as he is the one shinning light in another lost Bills season.
11.) Miami Dolphins (5-8 = 240-276)
Remember when the Dolphins were 4-3 and went to play the 4-3 Colts? The Dolphins are 1-6 since that game (the Colts, using what can only be described as Dark Arts, are 6-1). Ryan Tannehill has fallen off, and despite decent performances, are in for another long winter.
10.) New York Jets (6-7 = 245-306)
The fact that they are still alive is just amazing. What makes it worse is they dropped that truly winnable game in Foxboro earlier this year, or they could be over .500. One piece of good news is there is no way their Week 16 and 17 opponents rest starters this time around like three years ago.
9.) Cleveland Browns (5-8 = 259-272)
Three straight wins, and don't look now but if RGIII is out or gimpy, they could get a 4th. Of course, there are rumors they are looking to sign Mike Lombardi and Josh McDaneils as a package GM/Coach for next season, which is so utterly moronic, it makes hiring Butch Davis seem smart.
8.) San Diego Chargers (5-8 = 292-281)
The Chargers somehow have a +11 point differential but are three games under .500. Just another dead season in San Diego. Despite beating down the Steelers, Philip Rivers is so amazingly innacurate now that it is kind of sad. Here was the best QB in the NFL from 2008-2010 statistically just playing like garbage. Sad.
The Team That Still won't Admit How Bad they Are
7.) Indianapolis Colts (9-4 = 292-329)
I have no idea how they are doing it. They were down 20-7, playing soulless football (granted, that Pick-6 was absolutely the wrong call), yet somehow won despite Andrew Luck having a bad day. This wasn't like Luck's bad, but quietly good, day against Detroit. This was just a bad performance, yet they still won. Amazing, really. The best part is they might actually draw Baltimore in Round 1, the one opponent that wouldn't fleece them 45-10.
The Slightly Depressing Three Ring Circus
6.) Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6 = 278-264)
I have no idea how to rank these three AFC North teams, as they all lost in excruciating fashion on Sunday, but I'm putting the Steelers last for losing to the worst team of the three and losing at home by 10 (but really much more, as it was 27-3 at one point). Roethlisberger, to me, actually seemed healthy, but that team was just awful around him.
5.) Baltimore Ravens (9-4 = 331-273)
They might really lose four straight games after a 9-2 start with the Broncos and Giants coming to Baltimore the next two weeks. My gut feeling is they win one of those two games, but it will definitely make for an interesting time in Baltimore. Ray Lewis is returning, but he can't solve a suddenly average defense. I do like the moxie to fire Cam Cameron this late in a season, though.
4.) Cincinnati Bengals (7-6 = 321-280)
I'm not quite sure how they blew that game. It isn't like Tony Romo had a great game. I guess it was an awful performance in the Red Zone that did them in, as Dalton seemed to move it easily from 20 to 20. That Geno Atkins is a superstar, quietly having an awesome season at a true DT spot. Their pass rush is so good.
If One of these Three Don't Make It, then We have a Problem
3.) Houston Texans (11-2 = 365-263)
Well, that was bad. For the 2nd Time this season, the Texans gave up 42 points to a premier QB in a national game. The difference here was, at least to me, it was more the offenses fault for screwing up promising drives in that 1st half. I credit Gary Kubiak for going for it on 4th down twice in the 1st Half, but it didn't work, and made what could have been a 21-13 type game at halftime into 21-0. They have to move on. They still have the inside track at the #1 seed, but they don't seem like a team that could beat Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in the playoffs.
2.) Denver Broncos (10-3 = 375-257)
Another Denver win that easily could have been far more comfortable than it was. The Broncos defense continues to stifle opponents, but gave up some long plays in the game. The offense is starting to have trouble scoring in the Red Zone. But these are relative problems, nitpicks for as complete a team as there is in the NFL.
1.) New England Patriots (10-3 = 472-274)
They return to #1 with a dominant performance against the prior-to-NFL's best team. They still get absurd fumble luck, as they fumbled twice in the Red Zone and recovered both (including one for a fumble). The defense was impressive I guess, but I still feel they can be exposed against a team with more than one weapon. Oddly, I still think the Ravens are an awful matchup for New England.
Projected AFC Standings
1.) Houston Texans (14-2 = vs.IND (w), vs.MIN (w), @IND (w))
2.) New England Patriots (13-3 = vs.SF (w), @JAX (w), vs.MIA (w))
3.) Denver Broncos (13-3 = @BAL (w), vs.CLE (w), vs.KC (w))
4.) Baltimore Ravens (10-6 = vs.DEN (L), vs.NYG (w), @CIN (L))
5.) Indianapolis Colts (10-6 = @HOU (L), @KC (w), vs.HOU (L))
6.) Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7 = @DAL (w), vs.CIN (w), vs.CLE (L))
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7.) Cincinnati Bengals (9-7 = @PHI (w), @PIT (L), vs.BAL (W))
NFC
Welcome to the "Insert Average QB Here" Sweepstakes
16.) Arizona Cardinals (4-9 = 186-292)
I guess it wasn't just Ryan Lindley then?
15.) Philadelphia Eagles (4-9 = 240-341)
Great win, and finally a performance by the defense that ended their run of historically putrid play against the pass. Nick Foles looks pretty good to me, and I think whatever coach replaces Andy Reid should at least attempt to stick with Foles, especially with the sullen crop of QBs in the draft.
2013 Could Bring Good Things
14.) Carolina Panthers (4-9 = 265-312)
They aren't the best 4-9 team, but I think they will have a .500 or better season next year. Cam Newton is still a good QB in my eyes. Some of the plays he can make are incredible. That defense has been playing well since getting healthy, and they absolutely deserved that win on Sunday.
13.) New Orleans Saints (5-8 = 348-379)
That loss essentially ends their season. What a failure for the Saints, as they fought all the way back to a 5-5 record, but then the schedule caught up with them as they had three straight games against current division leaders and lost them all by double digits. The Saints offense is nowhere near what it was a year ago, and some of that is on Brees, who is forcing way too many balls to Jimmy Graham.
12.) Detroit Lions (4-9 = 320-342)
Here is a team that could go 13-3 next year and I wouldn't be surprised. I really hope they don't fire Jim Schwartz. They have everything except they keep making dumb mistakes. It is mostly Stafford, who's turnovers led to return TDs that proved to be the difference in both games against Green Bay. The Lions have all the pieces, but just need to put it all together. It is coming.
The Teams that are Alive in Only the Mathematical Sense
11.) St. Louis Rams (6-6-1 = 236-279)
Credit them for pulling off three straight wins to make their season much better, and credit Jeff Fisher for keeping that team competitive. They were once 3-2, and then went in a 0-4-1 stretch, but have rebounded. They still haven't lost to an NFC West opponent, and that could be huge with a game in Seattle in Week 17.
10.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7 = 354-308)
That was a crushing loss. So many people liked them before the season, and then even more through the season when they stayed competitive. They still have a good point differential and nice pieces, but you can't lose to those types of teams and seriously be a playoff contender.
9.) Minnesota Vikings (7-6 = 283-286)
They keep staying .500 or better mainly because of Adrian Peterson. At least that game was won with the addition of a defense that basically scored 14 points by itself, but Adrian Peterson continues to prop up the league's most flaccid passing game. At least Ponder doesn't turn it over three or four times like those so-called 'quarterbacks' in Arizona.
The Sharks, Waiting for the Giants to Slip into the Water
8.) Dallas Cowboys (7-6 = 300-314)
Big win for a team that has often seemed a little mentally weak. They still seem to play better on the road than at home, which is bad considering they have two home games upcoming. I'll give credit to Tony Romo for coming up big at the end after a mostly bad game through three quarters, and that defense for forcing field goals, but if AJ Green didn't have an uncharacteristically drop-heavy day, they lose and their season is all but over.
7.) Washington Redskins (7-6 = 343-329)
Alfred Morris is a beast. That run game is the reason they are winning, not RGIII. I don't admit that RGIII is having a great season, and he has probably wrestled away the Offensive Rookie of the Year award away from Luck, but he has a dependable running game to lean on. They have a legitimate chance of going from 3-6 to 10-6, which would be one of the great runs of recent memory to end a season.
We'll Know in Just One More Week
6.) Chicago Bears (8-5 = 308-219)
I actually don't think anything is wrong with their defense, which essentially gave up just 7 points in that game, as the Vikings returned two picks for a TD and to the 5-yard line. The Bears offense needs to play better. Luckily for them, they get two winnable games after next week, and if they go 10-6, it would be hard for them not to make the playoffs, but it would be huge to beat the Packers in the return leg. They still wouldn't have the division if the do win, but at least it will make them much more likely to make it to the playoffs.
5.) Green Bay Packers (9-4 = 323-279)
There are three 9-4 teams in the NFL, and while the Packers probably are the best of the three, all three are slightly underwhelming. Aaron Rodgers had an average day, and that offense is still nothing close to what it was last season, but they continue to win these games. Amazingly, they can get the #2 seed after starting the season 2-3. That says more about the NFC as a whole, as the NFC has become a far more deep and balanced conference than the ultra-top-heavy AFC.
If One of These Four Don't Make it, then We have Slightly Less of a Problem
4.) Seattle Seahawks (8-5 = 300-202)
That was impressive, but rarely will a team be that dominant two weeks in a row, so look for a possible struggle this week in Toronto. The Seahawks defense is playing out of its mind right now, but so is that offense. Russell Wilson didn't have a great game, but other than the now-benched Alex Smith, few do against the Cardinals defense. Marshawn Lynch picked it up, though, with a great game.
3.) Atlanta Falcons (11-2 = 337-259)
They still have a firm grasp over that #1 seed, and a 49ers loss this weekend all but clinches it, but the Falcons still have a load of problems. They are slow in the beginning of games too much, and that offense is getting way too pass-heavy right now. Their defense also seems a step slower outdoors, which, I guess, wouldn't be a problem in the playoffs.
2.) New York Giants (8-5 = 373-270)
That was, maybe, the worst performance in a 52-27 game, but the Giants continue to force a ridiculous amount of turnovers, and look like the scariest team in the NFC. There are serious questions about them winning that division, and potentially even making the playoffs at all, but if they get in, I can absolutely see them going on a run. The one difference this time, though, is the Giants have been good enough to make it less of a surprise in isolation.
1.) San Francisco 49ers (9-3-1 = 316-184)
I still want to find flaws with the move to Kaepernick, and I still don't think it makes the team any better in 2012, but after their 27-13 win over the Dolphins, I did ask myself: what would the score have been had Alex Smith played? And the answer is probably around a 27-13 win. We all expect the 49ers to be better with Kaepernick for the move to be paid off, but as long as they are about the same then the move was fine. We'll find out more this weekend, but I still think the 49ers are the class of the NFC from a talent perspective.
NFC Playoff Projections
1.) Atlanta Falcons (13-3 = vs.NYG (L), @DET (w), vs.TB (w))
2.) San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1 = @NE (L), @SEA (w), vs.ARZ (w))
3.) Green Bay Packers (11-5 = @CHI (L), vs.TEN (w), @MIN (w)
4.) New York Giants (10-6 = @ATL (w), @BAL (L), vs.PHI (w))
5.) Seattle Seahawks (10-6 = @BUF (w), vs.SF (L), vs.STL (w))
6.) Chicago Bears (10-6 = vs.CHI (w), @ARZ (w), @DET (L))
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7.) Washington Redskins (9-7 = @CLE (L), @PHI (w), vs.DAL (w))
Looking Ahead to This Week's Games
Quick Note: This is probably the best week of football games of the year. Of course, it is also the weekend before my two finals, so I'm not sure when I'll actually watch these games. I might try to avoid modern society until after my last final on Tuesday ends. I've done this before (2010 playoffs) but that time I was in India. A little easier to avoid finding out the scores when you are in a country that doesn't know of the existence of the NFL.
16.) Kansas City Chiefs (2-11) @ Oakland Raiders (3-10) (4:25 - CBS)
15.) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11) @ Miami Dolphins (5-8) (1:00 - CBS)
14.) New York Jets (6-7) @ Tennessee Titans (4-9) (MNF - ESPN)
13.) Detroit Lions (4-9) @ Arizona Cardinals (4-9) (1:00 - FOX)
12.) Carolina Panthers (4-9) @ San Diego Chargers (5-8) (4:05 - FOX)
11.) Cincinnati Bengals (7-6) @ Philadelphia Eagles (4-9) (TNF - NFLN)
I call it "Let's Get This Shit Out of the Way and Enjoy Some Real Football" Sunday, as all these games feature at least one bad team. Thankfully, most of the bad teams this week are playing against other bad teams. Only two of these games have any sort of playoff implication, and one of those is due to the fact that the Jets have some sort of playoff chance. The worst part about this set of games is that two of them are two of the three primetime games. The TNF games are usually bad, but in what world would Jets @ Titans ever have been a good game at this point in the season.
10.) Seattle Seahawks (8-5) @ Buffalo Bills (5-8) (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) @ New Orleans Saints (5-8) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "I have No Idea What to Call It, but they are Better Than That Last Set" Sunday, as the Seahawks travel to Toronto to play a dead Bills team. This is the last road game for the Seahawks this season, and a win here would really help their chase of the NFC West title. The Bucs and Saints are playing a game that could easily end 45-38, but since neither team is making the playoffs, who, other than fantasy owners, cares?
8.) Indianapolis Colts (9-4) @ Houston Texans (11-2) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "The Worst Game with Two Teams that are a Combined 20-6 Ever" Sunday, as I can really see the Colts losing by 30. The Texans are much better than that thing we saw on Monday Night, and the Colts have absolutely no one that has a prayer of blocking JJ Watt, or really stopping Andre Johnson. This could be billed as a game for the division, but it most likely won't be.
7.) Minnesota Vikings (7-6) @ St. Louis Rams (6-6-1) (1:00 - FOX)
6.) Washington Redskins (7-6) @ Cleveland Browns (5-8) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Survivor Sunday" as the Vikings, Rams and Redskins look to win and keep their playoff hopes alive. the Redskins are probably in best position to lose this game and still make the playoffs because of the Giants' schedule, but a loss would be crippling for them. The Vikings and Rams are the worst two teams in the NFC Wild Card Chase, and the loser is basically out. The winner has a glimmer of hope, though. Just the fact that this is true about this game in Week 15 is amazing.
5.) Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) @ Dallas Cowboys (7-6) (4:25 - CBS)
I call it "Nostalgia Sunday" as the Steelers and Cowboys have a matchup that for many evokes memories of Super Bowls past, of dominant dynasties in the 70's, and all that other sappy crap. For me, though, it evokes memories of Week 14 in 2008, the last time these two met, when the 8-4 Cowboys and 10-2 Steelers battled it out in Heinz Field, and in a old-fasioned smashmouth game, the Steelers came back from 13-3 down in the 4th Quarter to win 20-13 on an Ike Taylor pick-6. It was, as Mike Tomlin said afterwards, a "beautiful game." Anyway, this one is in Dallas, so it probably won't be as picturesque.
4.) Denver Broncos (10-3) @ Baltimore Ravens (9-4) (1:00 - CBS)
3.) San Francisco 49ers (9-3-1) @ New England Patriots (10-3) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "Playoff Positioning" Sunday, as all four teams are pretty sure bets to make the playoffs (the Broncos and Pats have already clinched, and one more win by the other two in their remaining games gets them in without any outside help), but this game will go a long way towards seeding. The Broncos might be better off with the #4 seed, as that draws Indy in Round 1 and avoids a trip to New England in Round 2. Of course, they are still one slip-up by the Pats away from a 1st Round Bye. The 49ers look to hold off the Packers for that #2 seed in the NFC, as the Pats look to hold off the Broncos in the AFC. That game can reaffirm the Pats position as the league's best team, or show the world that they are mortal and the Jim Harbaugh made the right choice.
1.) Green Bay Packers (9-4) @ Chicago Bears (8-5) (1:00 - FOX)
A win by the Packers all but wraps up the division, and a win by the Bears keeps the race going. Had the Bears won one of their last two games and entered this at 9-4, it would have been the #1 game in the Week, but with an 8-5 record, a Bears win doesn't give them the inside track to the division title. A Bears win will go a long way in getting them to the playoffs, though.
2.) New York Giants (8-5) @ Atlanta Falcons (11-2) (1:00 - FOX)
Just a great game, but I have no idea why it needs to be played at 1PM. The Giants are playing for a division still, and a loss here really hurts with a trip to Baltimore next week. It would be an epic collapse if the Giants don't win the division. A win by the Falcons all but wraps up the #1 seed, and finally will quiet some of the doubters as the Falcons can beat a team with a load of playoff pedigree. The Giants get another chance to beat one of the NFC's best, as they've done in all their major games this year. A great game with tons of storylines.
Coach of the Year
3.) Mike Shanahan (WAS)
2.) Gary Kubiak (HOU)
1.) Pete Carroll (SEA)
Kubiak is still up there, but that is because it is hard to come up with good candidates. I still don't see any way an interim coach wins it, but Bruce Arians, by the outline of the award, probably is the best candidate. Pete Carroll made a gutsy decision to go with Russell Wilson and it paid off quite well, and Mike Shanahan's offense has made Washington into one of the league's most efficient and exciting teams.
Defensive Player of the Year
3.) Aldon Smith (OLB - SF)
2.) Von Miller (OLB - DEN)
1.) JJ Watt (DE - HOU)
Aldon Smith picked up two more sacks, but as recent DPOTY votes have shown, it takes more than just a high sack total to win the award. Jared Allen had 22.0 last year and lost to Terrell Suggs, who arguably had the better overall season. This year, Von Miller and JJ Watt are having better overall seasons. I still have an edge to Watt for doing it at a tougher position to pile up those types of numbers.
Offensive Player of the Year
3.) Peyton Manning (QB - IND)
2.) Calvin Johnson (WR - DET)
1.) Adrian Peterson (RB - MIN)
Manning is still in the running as the best QB statistically this year, but Brady and Rodgers are right there. Calvin is still on pace to break Jerry Rice's yardage record, but to me his lack of TDs hurts him. Peterson has the TDs, but also a legitimate chance at 2,000 yards for a team with absolutely no passing game to take any pressure off him.
MVP
5.) JJ Watt (DE - HOU)
4.) Adrian Peterson (RB - MIN)
3.) Tom Brady (QB - NE)
2.) Aaron Rodgers (QB - GB)
1.) Peyton Manning (QB - DEN)
Watt is still there for having an ungodly impact as a 3-4 DE. Peterson remains, and is closing in on the top three, for being the sole reason his team is above .500 and still in the Wild Card hunt. Then we get the top-three QBs. Unlike baseball, there is a separate award for OPOTY and MVP, so for MVP I look at things like situation and narrative. Rodgers has had his two main targets in and out of the lineup, has had a revolving door at tackle and no run game and is about 95% as good as last year. Brady has had some of these things (no Hernandez and then no Gronk, revolving door at guard) but has a great run game. Manning joined an 8-8 team that should have gone 6-10, and has led them to a 10-3 record. He's changed that franchise, made Demarryius Thomas into one of the premier weapons in the NFL. He embodies what 'most valuable' is all about.
