With every NFL team having played 8 games (HOU and NYG have both played 9), we are at the half-way point of the season. Here are 10 predictions for the second half, along with updated Playoff Projections and Predictions at the end.
1.) Miami and Carolina both end up 8-8 or 9-7.
They are the best of the 3-5 teams. They have both played the Saints extremely well. They can both run the ball really, really well. Both of their defenses will keep them in games. Both of their QBs can manage the game. They both have good solid coaches. They both started out too slow for them to make a strong push, but believe me. They won't quit. You don't quit on Tony Sparano. Their schedules are not too tough either.
2.) Pittsburgh goes on a huge run that makes them everyone's favorite.
They finally got the major publicity a defending champion on a 5 game winning streak deserves with that blowout of Denver yesterday. However, people, like they often do in the NFL, overreacted after their 1-2 start. They lost a game in Chicago where their usually reliable kicker (when sober) Jeff Reed missed two game-winning kicks and then last second in Cincinnatti, a very good team. Now, check this upcoming slate of games: vs CIN, @ KC, @ BAL, vs OAK, @ CLE, vs GB, vs BAL, @ MIA. I'm saying they beat Cincy this weekend, and then one of two things happen. They either sweep Baltimore, in which case will win out and rest their starters in the last week, as Indy will be 14-1 at the time, or go 1-1 against Baltimore, in which case they don't rest their starters against Miami in Week 17. They are primed to go 13-3. Now, assuming one of those two scenarios plays out, they will be on a 12-1 tear since that 1-2 start. Will be a one loss team (I think 9-1) with Polamalu. Honestly, I am dead scared of them sneaking out the #1 seed under Indy's nose. They will gather all the media attention with their scorching hot play, the return of the best defense in the league and the subtle fact that they won the Super Bowl (that's right, the Steelers won last year. Not the New England Patriots, as you, and Las Vegas, might have heard). This will make them everyone's darling to go into Indianapolis and upset the Colts again. More on that scenario later.
3.) The Cowboys fold late and miss the playoffs, and the Giants take their spot.
I just do not trust them. Sure, they won the Eagles game, but I was not impressed. They got another bullshit Miles Austin TD. How many more weeks can that facade work. I'll say two. In fact, I'll say zero, as I think they will lose in Green Bay this weekend. On the other hands, everyone has seemed to give up on the Giants, on account of their 4 straight losses. Now, everyone was orgasming over the Manning-Bowl possibilities after their 5-0 start. Now, they are not as good as that team, but nowhere near as bad as the 0-4 team. They outplayed the Chargers, they did. That was a good performance. They have alot of tough games ahead, but alot of those games can greatly help their cause if they turn it around. They have Dallas again, in New York. If they win that, they essentially make up two games against the Cowboys, as they would have swept them. They have Atlanta after the bye in New York, another team they should beat and another prime WC competitor. Now, here is the scenario I see playing out. The Giants lose to the Eagles and at Denver, and enter the last weekend 9-6. The Cowboys enter the last weekend, after losing at NY, GB and New Orleans, at 10-5. The Eagles, who lose @ Atlanta and Chicago enter Week 17 at 10-5. Now, here is where it gets interesting. The Eagles play the Cowboys in St. Jerry's Basilica in Week 17 for the division title. The Eagles, in a nice rekindling of last years 44-6 guilliotining, beat the Cowboys in their shrine to win the East. Then, in Minnesota the Vikings and Giants play. The Vikings need the game to clinch the #2 seed, but the more desperate (and honestly, possibly more talented) Giants need it to get it. If the Giants win, they are in, having swept the now 10-6 Cowboys. A desperate Giants team wins it, knocking the Cowboys out of the playoffs, and forcing Wade Philips to return to his papaya-fields.
4.) The Saints and Colts both lose, however not where you would expect.
Ok. After that long, long, circuitous one, heres an easy one. Conventional wisdom says that both of these teams hardest tests are against the team defending its perch atop the 16-0 mountain, the Pats. The Pats get the chance this weekend to end the Colts shot at perfection and then the Saints host the Pats on Monday Night two weeks later. However, when you think of the recent teams to threaten the 16-0 threshold (the '08 Titans (10-0). '06 Colts (9-0), '05 Colts (13-0), '03 Chiefs (9-0), and '98 Broncos (13-0)) it is never the obvious team that ends it. In the case of every team, except for the '06 Colts, it was a non-playoff team that ended it (NYJ beat TEN, SD beat IND (05), CIN beat KC, NYG beat DEN). And in the '06 Colts case, it was the 9-7 Broncos, who at the time no one really thought could beat the Colts. It won't be the Pats. When you have teams as good as the Colts and Saints, there is a pride they take in playing home primetime games. Of course, since Indy has only had road games in primetime this year (@ MIA, @ ARZ, @ TEN), I am basing this theory off the old Colts. However, the Saints have hosted the Falcons and beat them up (some late flukey fumbles and onside kicks made it seem much, much closer than the real game itself). They have been great in the dome at night historically (last years 51-24 win over GB, the 06 return to the Dome game). They won't lose to NE on Monday Night. They will be too charged up, and frankly, NE is not good enough defensively to beat them. I say they lose on the road to the Falcons. I say, at that point, Atlanta is 7-5, fighting for its playoff life, while at 12-0 the Saints have locked up the division, and essentially home field. The more desperate team wins in front of its charged up crowd. As for Indianapolis, they too have a pride in night games. Excluding the playoffs, they are a pristine 16-3 in primetime games. The losses were two games pre-Manning recovery in 2008 (vs CHI on opening Sunday Night and @ TEN) and the 6-int game @ SD in 2007, where Vinatieri missed a game-winning 26 yd FG at the gun. They are amazing in night games. They are better than New England, and they will want to show the world this little fact on Sunday Night. Now, I say they will lose @ Houston in Week 12. Houston, which I say will be 6-4, will be a desperate ballclub, and will play for their season, against a 10-0 Colts team which has wrapped that division up. I also say the Colts other loss will come in the yearly Sorgi game in Week 17, unless the Steelers win out, and they need that game.
5.) Regardless of the outcome of this week's game, the Bengals are playoff bound.
They are damn, damn good. They probably are not as good as Pittsburgh, especially against a suddenly resurgent Pittsburgh defense in Heinz. Say they lose to Pittsburgh, as I predict they will, and they drop to 6-3. They have a two-game tough road trip in Weeks 14-15, with trips to San Diego. Now, they are good enough to sweep that, but say they split, they go to 7-4. Here are their other five games: @ OAK, vs CLE, vs DET, vs KC, @ NYJ. That is beautiful. That is absolutely stunning. Considering the lack of true playoff contenders, 11-5 is almost assuredly good enough to get to the playoffs, so they can even throw up a stinkbomb in that group. Considering this team has swept a good Baltimore team, already beaten Pittsburgh, crushed the Bears and gone into Lambeau and beaten the Pack, I think its safe to say they will take care of business against this week schedule. Carson, welcome back to the scene of the crime 4 years ago. I just hope that he gets more than 2 plays this time.
6.) Regardless of the outcome of this week's game, the Colts will have home field.
I already detailed why I think the Colts will win this weekend, but for humor's sake, say they lose. It will be a travesty. However, the Pats would still have a tough slate, including a trip to New Orleans, which I say they lose, which puts them at best 13-3. Now, the Colts would be 8-1. They don't really have two tough games left. The trip to Baltimore (a team they totally own - and I mean tyranny own) and a home game against Denver (a team they own to a level that makes the Baltimore games look competitive) as their only hard tests other than the possible loss @ Houston. Even if they lose that game to Houston, they can still sweek the other games, putting them at 14-2. That is good enough for the top spot, and that is if they lose to New England, which I don't think they do. This is a great, great time to be a Colts fan, a full two games up on the whole entire conference. I would caution Colts fans that they had a 2 game lead on the entire conference in 2006 (they were 8-0, BAL, SD and NE were all 6-2). They ended up going 4-4 and getting the three seed. I would also like to uncaution Colts fans by saying that was the year the Colts won the Super Bowl. It's all gravy in naptown.
7.) Passing numbers heavily decrease, and go back to normal year's standards.
Bear with me on this one. Right now, Manning is on pace for 5050 yds, Schaub for 4700, Brady for 4700, Brees for 4670, Ben for 4600, and Flacco, Rodgers, Warner, Rivers, Cutler and Romo on pace for over 4000. The 11 players over 4000 would break the 2007 record of 7. It is getting ridiculous. Total Yardage by teams is not up, and neither is scoring, but passing yardage is skyrocketing. Making this weirder is that just last year, passing was relatively down from 2006-2007. I see nearly every QB's pace going down (with the possible exception of Brees and Schaub). Cutler, Brady, Rodgers, Ben and surprisingly Warner all have mutliple games in cold weather places. Teams like New England, New Orleans, Minnesota, Arizona, Indianapolis could rest starters, which limit passing yardage. This is the biggest untold story of the year. The total increase of passing numbers. What will also assuage this is the historical fact of numbers decreasing over the second half, as injuries pile up, and film on teams passing games increase. December and January are for the runner. Honestly, I will be stunned if Ben, Flacco and Cutler are still over 4000 at the end of the year. All the other have realistic to bear certain shots at the number. It is still alot, but expect passing numbers to go down.
8.) There will be 4 teams that go 3-13 or worse.
This is depressing to even write. I'm too lazy to go back historically to see if this has ever happened before. However, we have the following teams at one loss: DET, KC, CLE, STL, TB. I say only one of those teams wins three games in the second half. Who is that team? God only knows, but having all five stay this awful is just impossible. It is a sad, sad day when the list of crap awful teams is this long, but that is what we find ourselves in in 2009.
9.) The Minnesota @ Arizona game decides the #2 seed in the NFC.
This is probably one of my bigger shockers. Minnesota is swimming smoothly at 7-1, with three easy games up coming (and when I say easy, I mean DET, SEA, CHI all at home). Now, I wouldn't be stunned if they lose the Chicago game at home, but either way, even if they are 10-1, they are not a shoo-in for the two seed, let alone the top seed. They have a brutal last five games, starting with the showdown against Zona. Now, leaving out that game, they play CIN, @CHI, @ CAR, NYG in the last four weeks. I see 2-2 in that stretch. I see them losing to a desperate NYG team (detailed in point 2) and one of the other three. Going to Carolina, against a team that prides itself on playing spoiler in some years, or even Chicago, fighting for its playoff life are both tough. Cincinnatti is good enough to beat Minnesota in Minnesota. I say they go 2-2 (not sure which is the other loss from the first three, but it happens, OK). That puts them at 12-3. Arizona, on the other hand has really no truly diffucult game other than the Minnesota game. Honestly, if they run the table, I would not be overly shocked. These are their other 7 remaining games: vs SEA, @ STL, @ TEN, @ SF, @ DET, vs STL, vs GB. They get the luck of playing the last two at home (although they have been strangely better at home). Now, the one that stares out at me is the game @ Tennessee. Tennessee will be in full fight mode, and they, much like Carolina to Minnesota, are a proud team that has the ability (as seen in 2008) to beat them. However, I cannot see them dropping more than one of those games. So, if they go 7-0 or 6-1, they are essentially 12-3 or 11-4 outside of the Minnesota game. Amazingly, with Minnesota at 12-3 and Arizona at 12-3 or 11-4, its purely winner take all. No matter what record Arizona has, that game is for the #2 seed. People may be totally engulfed in Favre-mania, but it may be the other old QB that gets the better of him, and lead the resurgent Cards into a first-round bye. If you told most people now that the game in three weeks would be that important, they would most certainly laugh at you. But, with the relative easiness of the Cards sked against the relative diffuculty of the Vikings, its just that. A hidden, but super important game.
10.) The Colts and Saints defy the odds and make the Super Bowl
Here were the best teams by conference at the midway-point this past decade
2008: TEN (8-0); NYG (7-1)
2007: NE (8-0); DAL & GB (7-1)
2006: IND (8-0); CHI (7-1)
2005: IND (8-0); SEA, NYG, CAR (6-2)
2004: PIT (7-1); PHI (7-1)
2003: KC (8-0); CAR & MIN (6-2)
2002: DEN & SD (6-2), GB (7-1)
2001: MIA, PIT, OAK (6-2); STL (7-1)
2000: TEN & OAK (7-1), STL (7-1)
What strikes you about this list is that alot of these teams did nothing come playoff time. Ironically, all the teams in 2002 and 2008 did not win a playoff game. The only year when the two teams both made it to the Super Bowl was 2006 with the Colts and Bears. Also, only the 2007 Pats, 2005 Hawks, 2004 Eagles, 2003 Panthers and 2001 Rams made it. That means of the 26 teams that either had or tied for the best record in their conference through 8 games, only 8 made the Super Bowl. That means odds are the Colts and Saints don't make it. Well, fuck logic. The Saints, with all their competitors having either hard schedules (MIN) or multiple losses (DAL, PHI, ARZ), are almost assured of that #1 seed (if not 16-0), and they will be unbeateable in that dome come January. There is still the karmic overtone of Katrina. Also, it may have taken three extra years, but they will finally fullfill all the promise they showed in 2006. As for the Colts. One, I am a Colts fan, but two, they two are great in their dome. They have a two-game lead over everyone. This weekend should show you that they can beat New England without guys who presumably will be there come January. The only team that I feel can dent this is Pittsburgh, but I just feel that we need revenge for the Bettis Fumble game. It is happening, people. The exact Super Bowl that everyone wanted in 2006 (seriously, fuck the Bears and Rex Grossman) we will finally get.
Playoffs
AFC: 1 - Colts (14-2); 2 - Steelers (13-3); 3 - Patriots (12-4); 4 - Broncos (11-5); 5 - Bengals (12-4); 6 - Texans (10-6)
NFC: 1 - Saints (15-1); 2 - Cardinals (12-4); 3 - Vikings (12-4); 4 - Eagles (11-5); 5 - Giants (10-6); 6 - Falcons (10-6)
Wild Card Round
AFC: Texans 31 @ Patriots 27; Bengals 24 @ Broncos 16
NFC: Falcons 20 @ Vikings 31; Giants 14 @ Eagles 27
Divisional Round
AFC: Bengals 17 @ Steelers 20; Texans 21 @ Colts 38
NFC: Vikings 27 @ Cardinals 21; Eagles 17 @ Saints 30
Championship Games
AFC: Steelers 13 @ Colts 24
NFC: Vikings 24 @ Saints 37
Super Bowl XLIV
Colts 34 Saints 24 MVP: Manning
