Not a great week for me in picks. Had a couple of wins that lost late, which kind of sucks, but on to bigger and better things in Week 4.
Reviewing Last Week's Picks
Chiefs (+3.5) over EAGLES (CORRECT = 1-0)
VIKINGS (-7) over Browns (WRONG = 1-1)
Chargers (+3) over TITANS (WRONG = 1-2)
PATRIOTS (-7) over Buccaneers (CORRECT = 2-2)
SAINTS (-7.5) over Cardinals (CORRECT = 3-2)
Lions (+1) over REDSKINS (CORRECT = 4-2)
Rams (+3.5) over COWBOYS (WRONG = 4-3)
Giants (-2) over PANTHERS (WRONG = 4-4)
Texans (-2.5) over RAVENS (WRONG = 4-5)
BENGALS (+3) over Packers (CORRECT = 5-5)
JETS (-2.5) over Bills (CORRECT = 6-5)
Jaguars (+20) over SEAHAWKS (WRONG = 6-6)
Colts (+10) over 49ERS (CORRECT = 7-6)
Falcons (+2) over DOLPHINS (WRONG = 7-7)
STEELERS (+2.5) over Bears (WRONG = 7-8)
BRONCOS (-16.5) over Raiders (WRONG = 7-9)
Week 3: 7-9
Year-to-Date: 27-21
Power Rankings
32.) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3 = 28-92)
Well, they scored more points than the Seahawks first two opponents combined. So what if most of it was in extreme garbage time? The Jaguars are still terrible, with an offense that is bad no matter who the QB is, and an ineffective MoJo Drew at this point in his career. The one good thing about their future is they have a stable owner. Of course, they have nothing else. Rarely does a team go 3-13 and get almost assuredly worse.
31.) Minnesota Vikings (0-3 = 81-96)
They lost to Brian Hoyer. They gave up 31 points to Brian Hoyer. I'm sorry, but Brian Hoyer is not a good QB. He should never beat anyone. Brian Hoyer will likely have an awful game this week against Cincinnati, because he is not that good. The Vikings defense made him look like a good player. The Vikings defense wasn't all that great last year, but they wouldn't have lost to Brian Hoyer. I'm not sure if Leslie Frazier's job is in jeopardy if they miss the playoffs, but he is not too long for the NFL world.
30.) Washington Redskins (0-3 = 67-98)
The good news, RGIII looked better. The bad news? Better was 32-50 for 326 yards and a crucial fumble. They fell apart after that correct overturn of the Aldric Robertson TD, and while I think the Lions are a quite good team, that was a winnable game. The Redskins, in truth, were a .500 team last year, and when you take the best part about that team, their pistol offense run by a brilliant runner in RGIII, they become far worse than that. What is more troubling, of course, is their defense regressing an incredible amount. They probably won't stay historically bad, but it may not be good enough.
29.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3 = 34-57)
They had the Patriots on the ropes, but that missed 4th and 5 early in the 2nd quarter (not to mention the missed field goal before that) killed their chances. Sure, it was the right call, but there's why I don't think the 'always go for it' mentality is right, even if it is mathematically provable. It was so obvious that the Patriots would take their good field position and drive it and take the lead. The Buccaneers never scored again. Josh Freeman has now completed less than 50% of his passes in all three games this year. That is not good. That is not good even if this was 1973. This team is only going to get worse too.
28.) Oakland Raiders (1-2 = 57-67)
I'll say this, Terrelly Pryor throws a lot better than he is given credit for. He had really good timing and placement on a lot of those throws against Denver. He's also great at escaping pressure. For the first time, he didn't go off running the ball and still had a nice game. The bad news to all of this is that none of it mattered, and they were lucky to get beaten by just 16. They won't embarrass themselves, though, and that is as good as anything else at this point.
27.) Cleveland Browns (1-2 = 47-64)
The Browns beat a winless team and suddenly there is some hype about them. Maybe it is just me, but when you need a 4th Quarter comeback to beat a bad team after scoring just 16 points in the two previous games, you still are not a very good team. I think Brian Hoyer had the game of his life last week as well, and I'll be stunned if they hang with the Bengals this week.
26.) Pittsburgh Steelers (0-3 = 42-76)
25.) New York Giants (0-3 = 54-115)
I'm putting these two together because, as I've mentioned, I picked each to go 12-4 and make their respective Title Games before the season. Of course, they are now a combined 0-6, and while the Steelers gained some life, their defense is starting to really break down. The Giants defense has also broken down, and that was one of the most lifeless performances I have seen. Strangely, the Giants have now had three absolutely terrible games against Carolina in the Manning era, first was a 23-0 loss in teh 2005 Wild Card Game, then a 41-9 loss in the final game in the Meadowlands in 2009. Of course, in between they beat them 36-14 in Carolina last season.
24.) Buffalo Bills (1-2 = 65-73)
That offense didn't quit, but to lose when your opponent gets 20 penalties called against them is quite something. I don't really know how they do it. The Bills defense that looked so good in Weeks 1-2, the Bills defense looked terrible against the Jets. It is hard to believe that teams that have a running QB can look so terrible trying to defend another running QB.
23.) St. Louis Rams (1-2 = 58-86)
I really don't know why I have them so high. They looked absolutely deplorable two weeks in a row to start the game, and while they at least showed some heart in Atlanta, that was the opposite in Dallas. I think they can give San Francisco a game because they always do (and bad, bad losses have never seemed to stop Jeff Fisher teams before), but right now the Rams are what the Rams have been ever since 2005: a bad team. Even their defense, which was supposed to build into a Top-10 unit has been anything but so far this season.
22.) Arizona Cardinals (1-2 = 56-79)
That was one of the closest 31-7 games that I have seen. The Saints were never really in sync apart from a few nice plays. The Cardinals moved the ball a bit, but always ran out of steam somewhere near midfield (and add into that Carson Palmer's one interception). Their defense continues to play well (and yes, holding Brees to 24-39 is playing well) and they'll probably never be out of any game, but they still most likely win more than 7 games, and that is the best case scenario.
21.) Philadelphia Eagles (1-2 = 79-86)
For the second straight game, the other team controlled the ball. This time, though, it wasn't because the Eagles were scoring so quickly, but it was because the Eagles were doing all of the same things they did in 2011 early in the year, with terrible turnovers, missed snaps, bad reads and continually shooting themselves in the foot. Honestly, if you go back to 2011 (the 'Dream Team' Eagles), they were so close to the same Eagles, except they weren't as fast between plays and could play defense. Nothing has really changed.
20.) New York Jets (2-1 = 55-50)
Lo and behold, the Jets are a really fun team to watch. They could easily be 3-0 right now, and after one average game and one terrible game, Geno Smith had his best game yet. I don't remember his arm being nearly as good in college, but that final TD throw to Santonio was absolutely perfect. This team has a murderous schedule coming up, so they better get a win against Tennessee. After that, it may not be too easy, with games against New Orleans, Atlanta and the return leg against New England in the next month.
19.) Tennessee Titans (2-1 = 60-56)
I'm not sure how it happened, but the NFL's worst defense in 2012 has suddenly become a thoroughly league-average unit (if not better). They didn't really stop Philip Rivers (18-22), but they kept his output below 200 yards and dominated the middle of the game. Jake Locker never makes it look pretty, but with his mobility and good arm, he can make enough plays. Locker really is like a poor man's Andrew Luck, or alternatively a very rich man's Christian Ponder. I don't know what that combination means long-term, but for now it ain't too bad.
18.) Dallas Cowboys (2-1 = 83-55)
The Cowboys are awfully good during day games at home, huh? A quick scan back shows them at 7-3 in day games at home the past two years. So what if some of those were awfully close, they were wins. This past one wasn't close, and it is nice to see the Cowboys have some sort of running game, but I still don't like the team long term. What helps them is that they are the best team in the division right now. After all those years of pumping up the NFC East, I think it is bad enough that maybe they won't have umpteen night games in the second half of the season.
17.) San Francisco 49ers (1-2 = 44-84)
The 49ers are still really talented, blah, blah, blah. What I really want to talk about is this idea of everyone giving Kaepernick a pass because he has no one to throw to. You know what? Kaepernick has been awful the past two games. If that was Mark Sanchez, or Christian Ponder, who both also have no one to throw to, they would be pounded for being bad. Instead, Kaepernick isn't. Why? Because everyone wants him to be great. Fact is that he is not a great passer yet, and the league has solved the Zone Read quite quickly after all.
16.) Houston Texans (2-1 = 70-82)
15.) Carolina Panthers (1-2 = 68-36)
They are about five plays away from 3-0, and have one of the best defenses in the NFL. They have the league's best pass rush as of now. Sure, they have no one in the secondary outside of the wonderfully named Captain Munnerlyn, but when they pressure the QB so well it doesn't really matter now, does it? The offense finally looks in sync as well, and to me the key is that DeAngelo Williams is running well again. The Saints are two games up, but I still think that division is winnable for Carolina.
14.) San Diego Chargers (1-2 = 78-81)
Here's another team that could easily be 3-0, but the reason why they aren't says a lot about them. Their defense in the end just isn't good enough to win close games without their offense doing more in the 4th Quarter. The Chargers could have run out the clock but they just couldn't run the ball to close it out. The Chargers are still a good team, but the AFC as a whole seems a lot better than most expected, as does the AFC West, and they need to pick up some wins quickly.
13.) Atlanta Falcons (1-2 = 71-74)
Here's another team that couldn't run the ball out. If they get another first down against Miami and hit one throw against New Orleans, they too are 3-0. The Falcons have a massive game coming up and they can't afford to fall to 1-3. The offense is still fine, but they just can't translate that to points each week, which is a problem. What has been a nice surprise is the effectiveness of their pass rush even without John Abraham. I'm sure the Giants would love to go back and resign Osi Umenyiora right about now. If they can just get slightly better play from their backend they should be fine going forward.
12.) Indianapolis Colts (2-1 = 68-48)
Well, that was impressive. I don't think anyone imagined them winning, let alone completely dominating the 49ers in every countable way. They mostly shut down the 49ers run game, they were able to run themselves against the good 49ers rush defense. They were able to protect Luck better than ever before. I don't like the fact that Grigson, Pagano & Co., seem hell bent on turning the Colts into a power-run team that doesn't go deep ever, but for one weekend, it worked about as well as it ever could.
11.) Baltimore Ravens (2-1 = 71-64)
How good are the Broncos? They score 49 against a team that hasn't given up a TD since. The Ravens defense has been on a roll these past two weeks. It sure is fun to play at home again. Flacco still looks like the inconsistent above average player he always has, but their Defense and Special Teams could easily still lead this team back to the playoffs. Their games against Cincinnati will be amazing this year.
10.) Green Bay Packers (1-2 = 96-88)
That was probably Aaron Rodgers worst game of his career, with two bad interceptions and quite a few other bad throws. Of course, mixed in there was some beautiful back shoulder stuff to Nelson. The fact that the Packers use that play as a repeatable one is just insane given how tough that type of deep timing pattern is. Their defense still goes through lulls where they won't get close to the passer, but their overall numbers have been far better than either of the past two years. The biggest problem as I see with the Packers is that they're division has two teams that are good.
9.) Miami Dolphins (3-0 = 74-53)
I said if they were to be a legitimate team in 2013, they beat the Falcons in their home opener. Well, it took a while to get the lead, but they did just that with a beautiful drive by Tannehill with the clock winding down. The Dolphins defense will now have to operate without Cameron Wake, but should get him back by at least the first New England game, and those two New England games may end up being the ones that decide the AFC East. Fun for the Pats to actually be challenged for a change.
8.) New England Patriots (3-0 = 59-34)
I didn't want to overreact to Tom Brady barely completing 50% of his throws through two games, and likewise I don't want to overreact to the Patriots finally having a comfortable win. Tom Brady has still not thrown for over 10 yards per completion even once, but he should be getting Gronkowski back soon and Amendola soon after. The Patriots have room to improve and are already 3-0. They have three tough games coming up (@ATL, @CIN, vs NO), and if they can make it out of that at 5-1, they can easily be a #2 seed (or even a #1 if I'm overrating Denver).
7.) Detroit Lions (2-1 = 82-69)
That was a big win for the Lions, to close out a worse team on the road without playing their best game. The Lions seem to have a more sustainable 'good'-ness about them this time than in 2011. The NFC is deep, so they are no lock for the playoffs, but the Lions seem more structured. That defensive line has been slightly underwhelming in terms of sacks, but their revamped secondary has worked well. If they can get Ndamukong Suh to play at his normal level, look out. Huge game in the NFC North this week with them hosting the Bears.
6.) Kansas City Chiefs (3-0 = 71-34)
One more game, and one more sign that maybe the better comp for the 2013 Kansas City Chiefs in the 2011 San Francisco 49ers (a legitimate 13-3) and not the 2010 Chiefs, who also started 3-0 (but finished 0-6 and collapsed the next two years). Alex Smith looks sloppy at times, but he doesn't turn it over. The defense is playing at an extremely high level. I don't think they are as good as Denver, and I don't see them winning the division, but they should be a wild card contender, if not a healthy #5 seed.
5.) New Orleans Saints (3-0 = 70-38)
The good news is that their offense can still get better, as Brees still hasn't clicked close to what he was in 2011 with Payton. The bad news is their defense will almost certainly get worse because Rob Ryan defenses almost always do. The best news, though, is that the good news should offset the bad news. I heard a lot the past two days about who is the 2nd best team in the NFC right now with the Packers, 49ers and Falcons all being 1-2. Well, why not the Saints? If they can steal that #2 or #1 seed, we could see two of the best Home Crowds hosting division games.
4.) Chicago Bears (3-0 = 95-74)
The Bears ability to consistently create turnovers and more consistently return those for points is beyond all levels of understanding. How they can do it year after year playing essentially the same scheme is one of the most amazing things about the Bears. On the other side, the O-Line has still done a great job, and Cutler is starting to trust players not named Brandon Marshall, with Alshon Jeffery having a particularly nice start to the season.
3.) Cincinnati Bengals (2-1 = 75-64)
Big win for the Bengals in the best game of the week. There are two teams that are clearly better than both the Packers and Bengals in their respective conferences, but I got the feeling that that could have been a Super Bowl preview under the right circumstances. Both teams played well, but ultimately the Bengals greater talent everywhere outside of QB and WR made up for the alternative this time. They clamped down that defense in an extremely impressive way, especially given the short fields they were constantly made to defend. The Bengals are a really good team and they can go on a run here. A key game is their hosting of the Pats in two weeks.
2.) Seattle Seahawks (3-0 = 86-27)
Sure, the schedule gave them a favor by throwing Jacksonville at them in Week 3, but the Seahawks didn't let up a bit. They effectively ended that game in half a quarter, as a good team should against a terrible one. At some point, it won't get so easy, and then we will see what happens in a close game with them, but for right now their defense is the best in the NFL, their offense is solidly in the Top-10, and their Special Teams is good enough to give them good field position and their opponents bad. Everything is going right for Seattle right now.
1.) Denver Broncos (3-0 = 127-71)
And everything is going right for Denver apart from the injuries. Champ Bailey should be back in a week or two and Von MIller back a few weeks after, which should help remedy their defense. Of course, their defense mostly needs to be remedied because they gave up garbage points. Also, it may not matter, since that offense is unstoppable right now. Peyton is playing at a level even I haven't seen from him since that brilliant 2009 AFC Championship Game performance. The Broncos are scary, and with Von Miller coming back in less than a month, they will only get scarier.
Playoff Projections
AFC
1.) Denver Broncos = 14-2
2.) Cincinnati Bengals = 12-4
3.) New England Patriots = 12-4
4.) Houston Texans = 10-6
5.) Kansas City Chiefs = 11-5
6.) Miami Dolphins = 10-6
NFC
1.) Seattle Seahawks = 13-3
2.) New Orleans Saints = 12-4
3.) Green Bay Packers = 11-5
4.) Dallas Cowboys = 9-7
5.) Detroit Lions = 10-6
6.) Chicago Bears = 10-6
Ranking Next Week's Games
15.) Pittsburgh Steelers (0-3) @ Minnesota Vikings (0-3) (1:00 - CBS)
14.) Washington Redskins (0-3) @ Oakland Raiders (1-2) (4:25 - FOX)
13.) Arizona Cardinals (1-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Bad Team vs. Bad Team is not a good Equation" Sunday, as these are the games with two bad teams playing each other. Few notes, there is some intrigue to Steelers at Vikings, but it being in London ruins any chance of it being anything but last.
12.) Indianapolis Colts (2-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) (1:00 - CBS)
11.) Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) @ Cleveland Browns (1-2) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Divisional Seperation" Sunday, as we get two good teams going on the road to play a bad team from their division. I think this will be the first game where the Jags aren't blown out badly, as they usually play Indianapolis close. On the other side, I think the Bengals flex their muscles and ruin the Browns shit.
10.) New York Giants (0-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Baltimore Ravens (2-1) @ Buffalo Bills (1-2) (1:00 - CBS)
8.) New York Jets (2-1) @ Tennessee Titans (2-1) (4:05 - CBS)
I call it "If I didn't have Sunday Ticket Max I wouldn't Care" Sunday, as these three games are barely interesting if you could only watch one or two. Well, with Sunday Ticket for the first time, I can watch more, so I'll see more. Also, that Jets @ Titans game is good, but I've never seen a game more assured to be a boring 17-13 type affair.
7.) San Francisco 49ers (1-2) @ St. Louis Rams (1-2) (TNF - NFLN)
I call it "Desperation Sunday" with the 49ers and Rams both trying to stave off a dreaded 1-3 start. The Rams, if you haven't heard, played the 49ers to a draw in San Francisco and beat them in St. Louis. We'll see if they still match up well against the 49ers this time as well. Another subplot: can Kaepernick complete more than half his passes.
6.) Seattle Seahawks (3-0) @ Houston Texans (2-1) (1:00 - FOX)
5.) Dallas Cowboys (2-1) @ San Diego Chargers (1-2) (4:25 - FOX)
4.) Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) @ Denver Broncos (3-0) (4:25 - FOX)
I call it "Is the AFC Really the better conference" Sunday, as so far in 2013, the AFC has dominated the NFC to the tune of 11-3, including wins by seemingly above average AFC teams beating seemingly good NFC teams (Indy over San Francisco, Miami over Atlanta). The Seahawks get another good road test early, and the Cowboys and Chargers get to play what should be a fun game. The final one should be fun in that cathartic "You should have learned from Nick Saban that the NFL is a cut above, Chip" kind of way.
3.) Miami Dolphins (3-0) @ New Orleans Saints (3-0) (MNF - ESPN)
2.) New England Patriots (3-0) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-2) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "Every Now And Then the Night Games Are Just Great" Sunday(and Monday), with two great AFC East @ NFC South games. The Patriots and Falcons one has bigger stakes so it is a bit higher. We get to see the Pats defense face a good offense for the first time, and we get to see if the Falcons can avoid their first time being two games under .500 in the Matt Ryan era. On the other side, we get a surprise game between two undefeated teams. Can't ask for too much more.
1.) Chicago Bears (3-0) @ Detroit Lions (2-1) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Old School Divisional Grudge Match" Sunday, with a beautiful game between two powerful NFC North teams. They'll play the return leg much later in the year, when the weather should fit the tone, but the game should still be damn fun. Winner gets early control of the NFC North (and if it is Chicago, they go 2.5 up on Green Bay). Good early season game.
Reviewing Last Week's Picks
Chiefs (+3.5) over EAGLES (CORRECT = 1-0)
VIKINGS (-7) over Browns (WRONG = 1-1)
Chargers (+3) over TITANS (WRONG = 1-2)
PATRIOTS (-7) over Buccaneers (CORRECT = 2-2)
SAINTS (-7.5) over Cardinals (CORRECT = 3-2)
Lions (+1) over REDSKINS (CORRECT = 4-2)
Rams (+3.5) over COWBOYS (WRONG = 4-3)
Giants (-2) over PANTHERS (WRONG = 4-4)
Texans (-2.5) over RAVENS (WRONG = 4-5)
BENGALS (+3) over Packers (CORRECT = 5-5)
JETS (-2.5) over Bills (CORRECT = 6-5)
Jaguars (+20) over SEAHAWKS (WRONG = 6-6)
Colts (+10) over 49ERS (CORRECT = 7-6)
Falcons (+2) over DOLPHINS (WRONG = 7-7)
STEELERS (+2.5) over Bears (WRONG = 7-8)
BRONCOS (-16.5) over Raiders (WRONG = 7-9)
Week 3: 7-9
Year-to-Date: 27-21
Power Rankings
32.) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3 = 28-92)
Well, they scored more points than the Seahawks first two opponents combined. So what if most of it was in extreme garbage time? The Jaguars are still terrible, with an offense that is bad no matter who the QB is, and an ineffective MoJo Drew at this point in his career. The one good thing about their future is they have a stable owner. Of course, they have nothing else. Rarely does a team go 3-13 and get almost assuredly worse.
31.) Minnesota Vikings (0-3 = 81-96)
They lost to Brian Hoyer. They gave up 31 points to Brian Hoyer. I'm sorry, but Brian Hoyer is not a good QB. He should never beat anyone. Brian Hoyer will likely have an awful game this week against Cincinnati, because he is not that good. The Vikings defense made him look like a good player. The Vikings defense wasn't all that great last year, but they wouldn't have lost to Brian Hoyer. I'm not sure if Leslie Frazier's job is in jeopardy if they miss the playoffs, but he is not too long for the NFL world.
30.) Washington Redskins (0-3 = 67-98)
The good news, RGIII looked better. The bad news? Better was 32-50 for 326 yards and a crucial fumble. They fell apart after that correct overturn of the Aldric Robertson TD, and while I think the Lions are a quite good team, that was a winnable game. The Redskins, in truth, were a .500 team last year, and when you take the best part about that team, their pistol offense run by a brilliant runner in RGIII, they become far worse than that. What is more troubling, of course, is their defense regressing an incredible amount. They probably won't stay historically bad, but it may not be good enough.
29.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3 = 34-57)
They had the Patriots on the ropes, but that missed 4th and 5 early in the 2nd quarter (not to mention the missed field goal before that) killed their chances. Sure, it was the right call, but there's why I don't think the 'always go for it' mentality is right, even if it is mathematically provable. It was so obvious that the Patriots would take their good field position and drive it and take the lead. The Buccaneers never scored again. Josh Freeman has now completed less than 50% of his passes in all three games this year. That is not good. That is not good even if this was 1973. This team is only going to get worse too.
28.) Oakland Raiders (1-2 = 57-67)
I'll say this, Terrelly Pryor throws a lot better than he is given credit for. He had really good timing and placement on a lot of those throws against Denver. He's also great at escaping pressure. For the first time, he didn't go off running the ball and still had a nice game. The bad news to all of this is that none of it mattered, and they were lucky to get beaten by just 16. They won't embarrass themselves, though, and that is as good as anything else at this point.
27.) Cleveland Browns (1-2 = 47-64)
The Browns beat a winless team and suddenly there is some hype about them. Maybe it is just me, but when you need a 4th Quarter comeback to beat a bad team after scoring just 16 points in the two previous games, you still are not a very good team. I think Brian Hoyer had the game of his life last week as well, and I'll be stunned if they hang with the Bengals this week.
26.) Pittsburgh Steelers (0-3 = 42-76)
I'm putting these two together because, as I've mentioned, I picked each to go 12-4 and make their respective Title Games before the season. Of course, they are now a combined 0-6, and while the Steelers gained some life, their defense is starting to really break down. The Giants defense has also broken down, and that was one of the most lifeless performances I have seen. Strangely, the Giants have now had three absolutely terrible games against Carolina in the Manning era, first was a 23-0 loss in teh 2005 Wild Card Game, then a 41-9 loss in the final game in the Meadowlands in 2009. Of course, in between they beat them 36-14 in Carolina last season.
24.) Buffalo Bills (1-2 = 65-73)
That offense didn't quit, but to lose when your opponent gets 20 penalties called against them is quite something. I don't really know how they do it. The Bills defense that looked so good in Weeks 1-2, the Bills defense looked terrible against the Jets. It is hard to believe that teams that have a running QB can look so terrible trying to defend another running QB.
23.) St. Louis Rams (1-2 = 58-86)
I really don't know why I have them so high. They looked absolutely deplorable two weeks in a row to start the game, and while they at least showed some heart in Atlanta, that was the opposite in Dallas. I think they can give San Francisco a game because they always do (and bad, bad losses have never seemed to stop Jeff Fisher teams before), but right now the Rams are what the Rams have been ever since 2005: a bad team. Even their defense, which was supposed to build into a Top-10 unit has been anything but so far this season.
22.) Arizona Cardinals (1-2 = 56-79)
That was one of the closest 31-7 games that I have seen. The Saints were never really in sync apart from a few nice plays. The Cardinals moved the ball a bit, but always ran out of steam somewhere near midfield (and add into that Carson Palmer's one interception). Their defense continues to play well (and yes, holding Brees to 24-39 is playing well) and they'll probably never be out of any game, but they still most likely win more than 7 games, and that is the best case scenario.
21.) Philadelphia Eagles (1-2 = 79-86)
For the second straight game, the other team controlled the ball. This time, though, it wasn't because the Eagles were scoring so quickly, but it was because the Eagles were doing all of the same things they did in 2011 early in the year, with terrible turnovers, missed snaps, bad reads and continually shooting themselves in the foot. Honestly, if you go back to 2011 (the 'Dream Team' Eagles), they were so close to the same Eagles, except they weren't as fast between plays and could play defense. Nothing has really changed.
20.) New York Jets (2-1 = 55-50)
Lo and behold, the Jets are a really fun team to watch. They could easily be 3-0 right now, and after one average game and one terrible game, Geno Smith had his best game yet. I don't remember his arm being nearly as good in college, but that final TD throw to Santonio was absolutely perfect. This team has a murderous schedule coming up, so they better get a win against Tennessee. After that, it may not be too easy, with games against New Orleans, Atlanta and the return leg against New England in the next month.
19.) Tennessee Titans (2-1 = 60-56)
I'm not sure how it happened, but the NFL's worst defense in 2012 has suddenly become a thoroughly league-average unit (if not better). They didn't really stop Philip Rivers (18-22), but they kept his output below 200 yards and dominated the middle of the game. Jake Locker never makes it look pretty, but with his mobility and good arm, he can make enough plays. Locker really is like a poor man's Andrew Luck, or alternatively a very rich man's Christian Ponder. I don't know what that combination means long-term, but for now it ain't too bad.
18.) Dallas Cowboys (2-1 = 83-55)
The Cowboys are awfully good during day games at home, huh? A quick scan back shows them at 7-3 in day games at home the past two years. So what if some of those were awfully close, they were wins. This past one wasn't close, and it is nice to see the Cowboys have some sort of running game, but I still don't like the team long term. What helps them is that they are the best team in the division right now. After all those years of pumping up the NFC East, I think it is bad enough that maybe they won't have umpteen night games in the second half of the season.
17.) San Francisco 49ers (1-2 = 44-84)
The 49ers are still really talented, blah, blah, blah. What I really want to talk about is this idea of everyone giving Kaepernick a pass because he has no one to throw to. You know what? Kaepernick has been awful the past two games. If that was Mark Sanchez, or Christian Ponder, who both also have no one to throw to, they would be pounded for being bad. Instead, Kaepernick isn't. Why? Because everyone wants him to be great. Fact is that he is not a great passer yet, and the league has solved the Zone Read quite quickly after all.
16.) Houston Texans (2-1 = 70-82)
I wanted to think Matt Schaub wasn't permanently ruined last year, but the more and more he throws short and doesn't test the arm I think it might be true. He's thrown for less than 10 yards per completion through the season, including well under 10 these past two games. Some of it is Andre Johnson's nagging injury, but DeAndre Hopkins has played well on the other side. No, there is no real reason why Matt Schaub has turned into the latter day David Carr. The defense is still quite good, but that was a harrowing loss to the Ravens, and they are in a much tougher division than I'm sure they imagined.
15.) Carolina Panthers (1-2 = 68-36)
They are about five plays away from 3-0, and have one of the best defenses in the NFL. They have the league's best pass rush as of now. Sure, they have no one in the secondary outside of the wonderfully named Captain Munnerlyn, but when they pressure the QB so well it doesn't really matter now, does it? The offense finally looks in sync as well, and to me the key is that DeAngelo Williams is running well again. The Saints are two games up, but I still think that division is winnable for Carolina.
14.) San Diego Chargers (1-2 = 78-81)
Here's another team that could easily be 3-0, but the reason why they aren't says a lot about them. Their defense in the end just isn't good enough to win close games without their offense doing more in the 4th Quarter. The Chargers could have run out the clock but they just couldn't run the ball to close it out. The Chargers are still a good team, but the AFC as a whole seems a lot better than most expected, as does the AFC West, and they need to pick up some wins quickly.
13.) Atlanta Falcons (1-2 = 71-74)
Here's another team that couldn't run the ball out. If they get another first down against Miami and hit one throw against New Orleans, they too are 3-0. The Falcons have a massive game coming up and they can't afford to fall to 1-3. The offense is still fine, but they just can't translate that to points each week, which is a problem. What has been a nice surprise is the effectiveness of their pass rush even without John Abraham. I'm sure the Giants would love to go back and resign Osi Umenyiora right about now. If they can just get slightly better play from their backend they should be fine going forward.
12.) Indianapolis Colts (2-1 = 68-48)
Well, that was impressive. I don't think anyone imagined them winning, let alone completely dominating the 49ers in every countable way. They mostly shut down the 49ers run game, they were able to run themselves against the good 49ers rush defense. They were able to protect Luck better than ever before. I don't like the fact that Grigson, Pagano & Co., seem hell bent on turning the Colts into a power-run team that doesn't go deep ever, but for one weekend, it worked about as well as it ever could.
11.) Baltimore Ravens (2-1 = 71-64)
How good are the Broncos? They score 49 against a team that hasn't given up a TD since. The Ravens defense has been on a roll these past two weeks. It sure is fun to play at home again. Flacco still looks like the inconsistent above average player he always has, but their Defense and Special Teams could easily still lead this team back to the playoffs. Their games against Cincinnati will be amazing this year.
10.) Green Bay Packers (1-2 = 96-88)
That was probably Aaron Rodgers worst game of his career, with two bad interceptions and quite a few other bad throws. Of course, mixed in there was some beautiful back shoulder stuff to Nelson. The fact that the Packers use that play as a repeatable one is just insane given how tough that type of deep timing pattern is. Their defense still goes through lulls where they won't get close to the passer, but their overall numbers have been far better than either of the past two years. The biggest problem as I see with the Packers is that they're division has two teams that are good.
9.) Miami Dolphins (3-0 = 74-53)
I said if they were to be a legitimate team in 2013, they beat the Falcons in their home opener. Well, it took a while to get the lead, but they did just that with a beautiful drive by Tannehill with the clock winding down. The Dolphins defense will now have to operate without Cameron Wake, but should get him back by at least the first New England game, and those two New England games may end up being the ones that decide the AFC East. Fun for the Pats to actually be challenged for a change.
8.) New England Patriots (3-0 = 59-34)
I didn't want to overreact to Tom Brady barely completing 50% of his throws through two games, and likewise I don't want to overreact to the Patriots finally having a comfortable win. Tom Brady has still not thrown for over 10 yards per completion even once, but he should be getting Gronkowski back soon and Amendola soon after. The Patriots have room to improve and are already 3-0. They have three tough games coming up (@ATL, @CIN, vs NO), and if they can make it out of that at 5-1, they can easily be a #2 seed (or even a #1 if I'm overrating Denver).
7.) Detroit Lions (2-1 = 82-69)
That was a big win for the Lions, to close out a worse team on the road without playing their best game. The Lions seem to have a more sustainable 'good'-ness about them this time than in 2011. The NFC is deep, so they are no lock for the playoffs, but the Lions seem more structured. That defensive line has been slightly underwhelming in terms of sacks, but their revamped secondary has worked well. If they can get Ndamukong Suh to play at his normal level, look out. Huge game in the NFC North this week with them hosting the Bears.
6.) Kansas City Chiefs (3-0 = 71-34)
One more game, and one more sign that maybe the better comp for the 2013 Kansas City Chiefs in the 2011 San Francisco 49ers (a legitimate 13-3) and not the 2010 Chiefs, who also started 3-0 (but finished 0-6 and collapsed the next two years). Alex Smith looks sloppy at times, but he doesn't turn it over. The defense is playing at an extremely high level. I don't think they are as good as Denver, and I don't see them winning the division, but they should be a wild card contender, if not a healthy #5 seed.
5.) New Orleans Saints (3-0 = 70-38)
The good news is that their offense can still get better, as Brees still hasn't clicked close to what he was in 2011 with Payton. The bad news is their defense will almost certainly get worse because Rob Ryan defenses almost always do. The best news, though, is that the good news should offset the bad news. I heard a lot the past two days about who is the 2nd best team in the NFC right now with the Packers, 49ers and Falcons all being 1-2. Well, why not the Saints? If they can steal that #2 or #1 seed, we could see two of the best Home Crowds hosting division games.
4.) Chicago Bears (3-0 = 95-74)
The Bears ability to consistently create turnovers and more consistently return those for points is beyond all levels of understanding. How they can do it year after year playing essentially the same scheme is one of the most amazing things about the Bears. On the other side, the O-Line has still done a great job, and Cutler is starting to trust players not named Brandon Marshall, with Alshon Jeffery having a particularly nice start to the season.
3.) Cincinnati Bengals (2-1 = 75-64)
Big win for the Bengals in the best game of the week. There are two teams that are clearly better than both the Packers and Bengals in their respective conferences, but I got the feeling that that could have been a Super Bowl preview under the right circumstances. Both teams played well, but ultimately the Bengals greater talent everywhere outside of QB and WR made up for the alternative this time. They clamped down that defense in an extremely impressive way, especially given the short fields they were constantly made to defend. The Bengals are a really good team and they can go on a run here. A key game is their hosting of the Pats in two weeks.
2.) Seattle Seahawks (3-0 = 86-27)
Sure, the schedule gave them a favor by throwing Jacksonville at them in Week 3, but the Seahawks didn't let up a bit. They effectively ended that game in half a quarter, as a good team should against a terrible one. At some point, it won't get so easy, and then we will see what happens in a close game with them, but for right now their defense is the best in the NFL, their offense is solidly in the Top-10, and their Special Teams is good enough to give them good field position and their opponents bad. Everything is going right for Seattle right now.
1.) Denver Broncos (3-0 = 127-71)
And everything is going right for Denver apart from the injuries. Champ Bailey should be back in a week or two and Von MIller back a few weeks after, which should help remedy their defense. Of course, their defense mostly needs to be remedied because they gave up garbage points. Also, it may not matter, since that offense is unstoppable right now. Peyton is playing at a level even I haven't seen from him since that brilliant 2009 AFC Championship Game performance. The Broncos are scary, and with Von Miller coming back in less than a month, they will only get scarier.
Playoff Projections
AFC
1.) Denver Broncos = 14-2
2.) Cincinnati Bengals = 12-4
3.) New England Patriots = 12-4
4.) Houston Texans = 10-6
5.) Kansas City Chiefs = 11-5
6.) Miami Dolphins = 10-6
NFC
1.) Seattle Seahawks = 13-3
2.) New Orleans Saints = 12-4
3.) Green Bay Packers = 11-5
4.) Dallas Cowboys = 9-7
5.) Detroit Lions = 10-6
6.) Chicago Bears = 10-6
Ranking Next Week's Games
15.) Pittsburgh Steelers (0-3) @ Minnesota Vikings (0-3) (1:00 - CBS)
14.) Washington Redskins (0-3) @ Oakland Raiders (1-2) (4:25 - FOX)
13.) Arizona Cardinals (1-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Bad Team vs. Bad Team is not a good Equation" Sunday, as these are the games with two bad teams playing each other. Few notes, there is some intrigue to Steelers at Vikings, but it being in London ruins any chance of it being anything but last.
12.) Indianapolis Colts (2-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) (1:00 - CBS)
11.) Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) @ Cleveland Browns (1-2) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Divisional Seperation" Sunday, as we get two good teams going on the road to play a bad team from their division. I think this will be the first game where the Jags aren't blown out badly, as they usually play Indianapolis close. On the other side, I think the Bengals flex their muscles and ruin the Browns shit.
10.) New York Giants (0-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Baltimore Ravens (2-1) @ Buffalo Bills (1-2) (1:00 - CBS)
8.) New York Jets (2-1) @ Tennessee Titans (2-1) (4:05 - CBS)
I call it "If I didn't have Sunday Ticket Max I wouldn't Care" Sunday, as these three games are barely interesting if you could only watch one or two. Well, with Sunday Ticket for the first time, I can watch more, so I'll see more. Also, that Jets @ Titans game is good, but I've never seen a game more assured to be a boring 17-13 type affair.
7.) San Francisco 49ers (1-2) @ St. Louis Rams (1-2) (TNF - NFLN)
I call it "Desperation Sunday" with the 49ers and Rams both trying to stave off a dreaded 1-3 start. The Rams, if you haven't heard, played the 49ers to a draw in San Francisco and beat them in St. Louis. We'll see if they still match up well against the 49ers this time as well. Another subplot: can Kaepernick complete more than half his passes.
6.) Seattle Seahawks (3-0) @ Houston Texans (2-1) (1:00 - FOX)
5.) Dallas Cowboys (2-1) @ San Diego Chargers (1-2) (4:25 - FOX)
4.) Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) @ Denver Broncos (3-0) (4:25 - FOX)
I call it "Is the AFC Really the better conference" Sunday, as so far in 2013, the AFC has dominated the NFC to the tune of 11-3, including wins by seemingly above average AFC teams beating seemingly good NFC teams (Indy over San Francisco, Miami over Atlanta). The Seahawks get another good road test early, and the Cowboys and Chargers get to play what should be a fun game. The final one should be fun in that cathartic "You should have learned from Nick Saban that the NFL is a cut above, Chip" kind of way.
3.) Miami Dolphins (3-0) @ New Orleans Saints (3-0) (MNF - ESPN)
2.) New England Patriots (3-0) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-2) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "Every Now And Then the Night Games Are Just Great" Sunday(and Monday), with two great AFC East @ NFC South games. The Patriots and Falcons one has bigger stakes so it is a bit higher. We get to see the Pats defense face a good offense for the first time, and we get to see if the Falcons can avoid their first time being two games under .500 in the Matt Ryan era. On the other side, we get a surprise game between two undefeated teams. Can't ask for too much more.
1.) Chicago Bears (3-0) @ Detroit Lions (2-1) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Old School Divisional Grudge Match" Sunday, with a beautiful game between two powerful NFC North teams. They'll play the return leg much later in the year, when the weather should fit the tone, but the game should still be damn fun. Winner gets early control of the NFC North (and if it is Chicago, they go 2.5 up on Green Bay). Good early season game.
