AFC East
4.) Buffalo Bills = 4-12
Lost: (QB) Ryan Fitzpatrick, (WR) Donald Jones, (DE) Chris Kelsay, (CB) Terrence McGee, (OLB) Nick Barnett, (WR) David Nelson, (G) Andy Levitre
Gained: (QB) Kevin Kolb, (G) Doug Legursky, (OLB) Manny Lawson, (DT) Alan Branch
The hiring of Doug Marrone seemed a little strange. Here is an semi-unknown, semi-successful college coach getting a job in the NFL when many very successful and known college coaches have failed. But maybe that is the method in the Bills madness. After all, this guy was the Offensive Coordinator for the 2006 Saints. As for their immediate outlook, the Bills still seem to be stuck in that perenially 5-11 or 6-10 mode, with some nice pieces, no depth and few front-line players. Their hyped D-Line actually played decently well, but their steady secondary fell apart, something I can't see getting better. Their o-line also loses its best player in Levitre. Add in to that the fact that EJ Manuel, already probably overdrafted, has two fewer weapons than Fitzpatrick had (Nelson, Jones), and you get another long year in Buffalo.
3.) New York Jets = 5-11
Lost: (CB) Darrelle Revis, (G) Matt Slauson, (DE) Mike DeVito, (RB) Shonn Greene, (ILB) Bart Scott, (S) LaRon Landry, (S) Yeremiah Bell, (NT) Sione Pouha
Gained: (NT) Antonio Garay, (RB) Chris Ivory, (OT) Willie Colon, (OLB) Antwan Barnes, (S) Dawan Landry, (TE) Kellen Winslow Jr.
The greatest 'gain' for the Jets may not be on the field, but in Jeff Idzik, a man who can stand up to Rex Ryan. Ryan is a brilliant defensive strategist, but he did his best work with mostly Mangini's players (2009 & 2010 Jets), and as Rex guys came in that team went to hell. Of course, if they could have had a league average QB and league average receivers, they might be a playoff team. The talent (and the coaching) is still there, but the QB just isn't. Even if it isn't Sanchez, I can't see Geno Smith succeeding enough as a rookie for Rex to keep his job. It is a shame, because I really like most of their defensive pieces and the Jets will probably continue to outright dominate any marginal offense they face on that side of the ball. But when you add Sanchez/Smith with Chris Ivory as lead back and Santonio (off an ACL injury) and Stephen Hill, even if you have a potentially great O-Line, that is not nearly good enough.
2.) Miami Dolphins = 9-7
Lost: (ILB) Karlos Dansby, (OT) Jake Long, (RB) Reggie Bush, (ILB) Kevin Burnett, (CB) Sean Smith
Gained: (WR) Mike Wallace, (ILB) Danell Ellerbe, (OLB) Philip Wheeler, (TE) Dustin Keller, (OT) Tyson Clabo, (CB) Brent Grimes, (WR) Brandon Gibson
Everything really depends on Ryan Tannehill. The Dolphins have a nice team around him, with a defense that transitioned just fine to the 4-3 (especially Cameron Wake, which had to be the biggest concern for them in that switch), and with Clabo, Keller and of course Mike Wallace, the offensive pieces around Ryan Tannehill are really good. What isn't though is Tannehill. Sure, he was a rookie, but I feel like people propped him up with his far superior fellow rookies. The guy had more interceptions than TDs with a y/a under 7. That is not exactly a good season even for a rookie. Can he raise his game? I'm sure it is possible, but I think for Tannehill, the jump to a playoff caliber QB is more likely to occur in 2014 than 2013.
1.) New England Patriots = 11-5 (4-seed)
Lost: (TE) Mr. Alleged Homicidal Maniac, (WR) Wes Welker, (RB) Danny Woodhead, (G) Donald Thomas, (S) Patrick Chung, (WR) Brandon Lloyd, (DE) Kyle Love
Gained: (DT) Tommy Kelly, (WR) Danny Amendola, (QB) Tim Tebow
Well, that was a most un-Patriots like offseason ever. And to remember when it was just about their rookie corner's felony assault trail (yeah, that happened). Here we are, and here the Patriots are, missing their second TE, their two starting receivers from last year, and with spare parts and injury reclamations to replace them, along with Danny Amendola. If Rob Gronkowski misses any serious time they could be in real trouble. I'll assume he doesn't for this (all accounts are without further setbacks he'll be back soon enough), and say that the Patriots are still the best team in the division, but they are damn fortunate they are in the AFC and not the loaded NFC. They can't have Brady's performance from 2006 (the last time his weapons were this mediocre) and expect to go anywhere, because the 2006 Patriots had the league's 3rd best defense. Some may say the Patriots defense is getting better, I will say it is still decidedly average. Their run game should pick up some of the slack, but predicting anything more than an 11-win season is putting more trust in Belichick than even I want to give. Of course, I have been way off on New England before (2010 season).
AFC North
4.) Cleveland Browns = 5-11
Lost: (DE) Frostee Rucker, (WR) Muhammad Massaquoi, (TE) Ben Watson, (S) Usama Young, (WR) Joshua Cribbs
Gained: (OLB) Paul Kruger, (DE) Quentin Groves, (TE) Kellen Davis, (QB) Jason Campbell, (CB) Chris Owens, (WR) Davon Bess
The Browns seemed to have a much louder offseason than they really have, as their only real FA acquisition that can really help the team in the short term is Kruger. They had a nice draft, I guess, but I generally think rookies really altering a team's one-season outlook is more the exception than the rule. Mike Lombardi will probably use this year as a full try-out season, starting with Weeden, and there is a lot to sift through. The O-Line is mostly set, as is the defense, but switching to a 3-4 seems like a horrible idea. It doesn't really fit the good Browns defenders already there (Jabaal Sheard, specifically, seems like a man without a country right now). It is easy to say good things are coming because they have a new owner and management team, but the owner is the CEO of a company currently under Federal Investigation, and their GM is a guy who most Football Fans know to be a babbling stooge, so I can't really be that kind.
3.) Baltimore Ravens = 9-7
Lost: (ILB) Ray Lewis, (S) Ed Reed, (OLB) Paul Kurger, (CB) Cary Williams, (WR) Anquan Boldin, (CB), (C) Matt Birk, (S) Bernard Pollard, (ILB) Danell Ellerbe, (FB) Vonta Leach
Gained: (OLB) Elvis Dumervil, (DT) Chris Canty, (ILB) Daryl Smith, (ILB) Rolando McClain, (DE) Marcus Spears, (S) Michael Huff
The 2013 Ravens will not resemble the 2012 Ravens at all. Obviously, Ray and Ed are gone, but so is Pollard (hope they don't get the Pats in the playoffs without their Pats killer - not to confused with Aaron Hernandez a Pat Killer), Paul Kruger, Cary Williams and Dannell Ellerbe. They are replacing more than half their defense, yet their defense could be better. All of their replacements, when healthy, are good players. They were lucky to have Dumervil fall into their lap, but he and a healthy Terrell Suggs should replicated what Paul Kruger and a unhealthy Suggs did in 2012. Offense is the big issue for me with Baltimore. First of all, their offense wasn't all that great last year. They were great in the playoffs because Anquan Boldin decided to play as well as he has in five years and Dennis Pitta 'made the leap'. Of course, Boldin is gone and Pitta is gone, leaving Joe Flacco where he was back in 2009-10, with just one trusted receiver to throw to. I like their being proactive and getting Stokley and Clark, but that's not nearly what they are replacing. That division is tough and schedule is tougher. Add it all up and I think the Ravens miss the playoffs for the first time in the Flacco/Harbaugh era.
2.) Cincinnati Bengals = 11-5 (5)
Lost: (OLB) Manny Lawson, (DT) Pat Sims, (CB) Jason Allen
Gained: (OLB) James Harrison
It is hard to believe that this will be Marvin Lewis' 10th year in charge of the Bengals. 10 years without just four playoff appearances and nary a playoff win. Of course, this team is headed in the right direction and has a really bright future, so it would be the wrong time to fire him. There is one question mark though, and that is Dalton. At some point, we have to wonder if this is the best Dalton gets. He really got no better in his second season and was not good down the stretch. He has enough to throw to and a decent O-Line and a more than decent running game. Everything is there, and if Dalton takes that next step, they can really start to challenge for AFC North supremacy soon. I am predicting them to take another step up to 11-5. That defense is incredibly stacked at every level, and their backups are about as good as a few teams starters. If young guys like Dre Kirkpatrick take another step up, this could be the best defense in the NFL. Their offense just needs to do what it did last year, or maybe improve like 5%. If they can solidify their receiver position across from Green, that team could really be the top team in the AFC for the next ten years.
1.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 12-4 (2)
Lost: (CB) Keenan Lewis, (OLB) James Harrison, (WR) Mike Wallace, (RB) Rashard Mendenhall, (S) Ryan Mundy, (OT) Willie Colon, (G) Doug Legursky
Gained: (CB) William Gay, (OT) Guy Whimper
Since 2000, the Steelers have done an interesting cycle. They miss the playoffs every three years ('00, '03, '06, 09, '12) and make the playoffs in all the years in between. Their records in the year immediately after missing the playoffs: 13-3, 15-1, 10-6, 12-4, and in that 10-6 year, they started 10-4 before resting everyone the last two weeks. A lot of my Steelers prediction is simply blind faith in the LeBeau University Pipeline. The Steelers had a lot of aging defensive players last year and those guys are mostly gone. In pure Steelers fashion the replacements are there, they just need to play well. The Steelers season comes down to whether Ziggy Hood, Cameron Heyward, Steve McClendon, Cortez Allen and either Jason Worilds or Jarvis Jones can replace Aaron Smith, Brett Keisel, Casey Hampton, Keenan Lewis and James Harrison adequately. I think they can, for the most part. I also still like that offense without Mike Wallace, as that O-Line cannot possibly be ridiculously injured once again, and with their run game more settled that offense can actually be quite good. Trends and hopes, that is what my Steelers prediction is based on, but in a way all of these are.
AFC South
4.) Jacksonville Jaguars = 3-13
Lost: (OLB) Daryl Smith, (S) Dawan Landry, (CB) Aaron Ross, (DT) Terrance Knighton, (WR) Laurent Robinson, (RB) Rashad Jennings
Gained: (OLB) Geno Hayes, (WR) Muhammad Massaquoi, (CB) Marcus Trufant, (DT) Sen'derrick Marks
I've seen a weird trend in my recent predictions for teams with new coaches in that I always feel like they will bottom out with the new coach in year 1, instead of taking a small boost up with a new coach. Of course, that was also true of the 2012 Jaguars, who went 3-13 with first year coach Mike Mularkey. I still don't think the team is any good, especially after losing three decent players on defense (Daryl Smith, Landry and Knighton), and replacing them with lesser players (Geno Hayes, Marks). Of course, they still employ - and plan to start - Blaine Gabbert. Sure, there are layers that struggled early and ended up good, but almost no one struggled to the level of Gabbert and ended up a good player. Personally, I think they play this year out with Gabbert, get another really high pick and select Teddy Bridgewater or someone.
3.) Tennessee Titans = 5-11
Lost: (G) Steve Hutchinson, (TE) Jared Cook, (DT) Sen'derrick Marks
Gained: (S) Bernard Pollard, (ILB) Moises Fokou, (TE) Delanie Walker, (G) Andy Levitre, (QB) Ryan Fitzpatrick
How is Mike Munchak really still they're coach? The Titans have bled talent since Fisher left after 2009 and while they still have some nice fantasy pieces (I can see a big comeback season for Chris Johnson), and had a decent offseason with getting the best guard on the market, and getting known Patriots killer Bernard Pollard. It comes down to the prospect of Jake Locker improving or not. He was simply not very good in 2012, with a Gabbert-esque 74.0 QB rating, and 56.4% completion percentage and more INTs than TDs. I actually didn't realize he was 'that' bad in 2012. In his defense he doesn't have much to work with, but the Titans need a Jake Locker that might never be there. The real issue for the Titans is their absolutely horrible defense in 2012. They had bad special teams luck, so their league-worst points allowed is probably extreme, but they just don't have any legitimate pro-bowl type player on that defense. The schedule is light, but in my mind that makes them a decidedly below average team instead of a terrible one.
2.) Indianapolis Colts = 8-8
Lost: (DE) Dwight Freeney, (WR) Donnie Avery, (ILB) Moises Fokou, (S) Tom Zbikowski
Gained: (G) Donald Thomas, (CB) Greg Toler, (OT) Gosder Cherilus, (OLB) Erik Walden, (DT) Ricky-Jean Francois, (WR) Darrius Heyward-Bey, (RB) Ahmad Bradshaw, (S) LaRon Landry
The Colts can be a better team and 2012 and still have an 8-8 record. They really were a 6-10 or 7-9 team that lucked (literally and figuratively) their way into an 11-5 record. They set records for best record in one score games, and Luck led an NFL-high 7 game winning drives. They went out and spend a boatload of money because they had enough to spend (even more next year), but the question remains if they spent it wisely. It has to be said that every new Colts FA acquisition is better than the person they replaced (the only debatable one is Erik Walden relacing Dwight Freeney). If they can stay healthy, Landry and Toler can make a huge weakness into at least a competent secondary. Donald Thomas and Gosder Cherilus could make that line competent. The problem is that defense still has no real identity, and some of the good luck that went their way won't. The Colts always had injuries, but they were remarkably healthy at WR in 2012. If Wayne (or Hilton) gets hurt, Luck may have issues. The Colts have a really bright future, but their 2013 probably won't be where it starts. That will be 2014, and if the Free Agents work, for many years after that.
1.) Houston Texans = 12-4 (3)
Lost: (S) Glover Quin, (OLB) Connor Barwin
Gained: (S) Ed Reed, (P) Shane Lechler
There is still no reason the Texans have to take a step back. I feel that the Texans ended the season so badly last year that people assume they were really like a 10-6 team that somehow won 12 games. I still think they are quite a bit ahead of the Colts. Matt Schaub was hurt late last year, and their O-Line was as well. Fix those two things and this is a great team once again. JJ Watt can't possibly be that good again, but with Brian Cushing back for hopefully the whole season, and a healthier season with Jonothan Joseph should still allow the Texans to be a Top-10 defense. At the end, they have an easy schedule. They do draw Baltimore, Denver and New England, but they also have their own division, Arizona, St. Louis and the rest of the AFC West. 12-4 is probably their peak, but I'll go with their peak once more. Of course, the Texans have failed me in the past (look at my 2012 preview), but the Texans are still one of the most talented teams in the NFL.
AFC West
4.) Oakland Raiders = 3-13
Lost: (QB) Carson Palmer, (WR) Darrius Heyward-Bey, (DT) Tommy Kelly, (OLB) Philip Wheeler, (ILB) Rolando McClain, (DE) Matt Shaughnessy, (S) Mike Mitchell, (TE) Brandon Myers, (S) Michael Huff
Gained: (QB) Matt Flynn, (CB) Tracy Porter, (CB) Mike Jenkins, (S) Usama Young, (WR) Joshua Cribbs, (OLB) Nick Roach, (OLB) Kevin Burnett, (RB) Rashad Jennings
For someone coming from Green Bay, Reggie McKenzie was really active in signing free agents. Now, he did it in a smart way, giving a bunch of 'wily old veterans' one or two year deals, basically as capable placeholders till he gets some draft picks to replace him. He went scorched earth with the remaining Davis guys which is fine, but losing Palmer, Heyward-Bey, Kelly, Shaughnessy, Brandon Myers and Michael Huff is quite a bit to replace. Some of the new guys are decent, but they have no pass rush, average guys in the secondary, and few weapons for Matt Flynn, who I assume will be their QB. The Raiders are moving in the right direction, finally cutting away the Al Davis years. I should note that Al Davis, almost seeing his death coming, actually managed to make the Raiders talented enough to probably have been the best team in the AFC West in 2010, but it never worked out. McKenzie did what he had to do, and these could be some lean years. It will be interesting to see if he holds onto Dennis Allen if the Raiders go 3-13 or 4-12.
3.) Kansas City Chiefs = 6-10
Lost: (OT) Eric Winston, (NT) Glenn Dorsey, (CB) Javier Arenas, (WR) Steve Breaston, (G) Ryan Lilja, (QB) Matt Cassel
Gained: (CB) Dunta Robinson, (QB) Alex Smith, (OLB) Frank Zombo, (ILB) Akeem Jordan, (DT) Mike DeVito, (WR) Donnie Avery
Sometimes narratives don't die. I am guilty of this - just look at my constantly over-optimistic Giants predictions, but there is an interesting thing going on with the Chiefs. Coming into the 2012 season, they were a trendy Wild Card sleeper pick because of Jamaal Charles returning and Romeo Crennel's defense playing better. Well, those things happened. Charles had a great year, the defense had a decent year, and they went 2-14. Now, because Andy Reid comes in, with Alex Smith replacing Matt Cassel (an upgrade, sure, but not a huge one), people are predicting the same things. They also lost some pieces. I do think they will be better because Andy Reid is a better coach than Romeo Crennel and because Alex Smith is better than Matt Cassel, but they aren't my sleeper playoff candidate. That team is coming up.
2.) San Diego Chargers = 10-6 (6)
Lost: (G) Louis Vasquez, (NT) Antonio Garay, (OLB) Antwan Barnes, (OT) Jared Gaither, (CB) Quentin Jammer, (DE) Shaun Phillips
Gained: (CB) Antoine Cason, (CB) Derek Cox, (DE) Dwight Freeney, (RB) Danny Woodhead, (T) Max Starks
Boom. The Chargers. The AFC is so lean right now that one of these seemingly bad teams will make the playoffs. I'm going with the Chargers. What makes me nervous is that they lost some good players, but I like their pickups. Derek Cox is still a good corner, Dwight Freeney came on late last year and could do better in their scheme. Danny Woodhead should do great in that offense playing the role Darren Sproles used to. Philip Rivers just can't be that bad again, can he? That is what this pick comes down to. If Philip Rivers gets to close to what he was from 2008-2010 (in which time he was definitely one of the three best QBs in the NFL in those three years), with the Chargers easy schedule they could make some hay in the AFC.
1.) Denver Broncos = 13-3 (1)
Lost: (DE) Elvis Dumervil, (OLB) DJ Williams, (CB) Tracy Porter, (RB) Willis McGahee
Gained: (WR) Wes Welker, (G) Louis Vasquez, (OLB) Shaun Phillips, (CB) Domonique Rodgers-Cromartie, (CB) Quentin Jammer, (DT) Terrance Knighton, (ILB) Stewart Bradley
I pegged them at 12-4 last year, losing the AFC Championship to Houston. Well, they did something like that in 2012. The loss of Dumervil is big, but I like them replacing him with Shaun Phillips (which was making the best out of a bad, crazy situation). I just loved their offseason. Everyone they picked up make sense. Louis Vasquez is one of the best pass-blocking guards in the NFL. Terrance Knighton is still a good run stuffer. DRC, on a one-year deal, is perfect in the way they play that defense, and Jammer is a nice piece to transition from safety to corner and back. There are two big questions right now. 1 - what if Miller is suspended. That story came and went and now there is a chance no suspension comes, but if it is the first four games it could be OK, but what if it is only resolved later in the season? and 2 - what if Decker or Thomas goes down. Both stayed remarkably healthy in 2012, and while Welker is a great insurance policy to a potential injury, they are best as a trio. Those aren't really huge problems (save for Miller, if he misses, say the New England game), but for a team that on paper is easily the best in the AFC, those little things can derail a potentially dominant team.
AFC Wild Card Round
(6) Chargers defeat (3) Texans 24-21
(5) Bengals defeat (4) Patriots 27-20
AFC Divisional Round
(1) Broncos defeat (6) Chargers 38-17
(2) Steelers defeat (5) Bengals 23-17
AFC Championship Game
(1) Broncos defeat (2) Steelers 24-16
Super Bowl XLVIII
(A1) Broncos defeat (N1) Giants 31-19
4.) Buffalo Bills = 4-12
Lost: (QB) Ryan Fitzpatrick, (WR) Donald Jones, (DE) Chris Kelsay, (CB) Terrence McGee, (OLB) Nick Barnett, (WR) David Nelson, (G) Andy Levitre
Gained: (QB) Kevin Kolb, (G) Doug Legursky, (OLB) Manny Lawson, (DT) Alan Branch
The hiring of Doug Marrone seemed a little strange. Here is an semi-unknown, semi-successful college coach getting a job in the NFL when many very successful and known college coaches have failed. But maybe that is the method in the Bills madness. After all, this guy was the Offensive Coordinator for the 2006 Saints. As for their immediate outlook, the Bills still seem to be stuck in that perenially 5-11 or 6-10 mode, with some nice pieces, no depth and few front-line players. Their hyped D-Line actually played decently well, but their steady secondary fell apart, something I can't see getting better. Their o-line also loses its best player in Levitre. Add in to that the fact that EJ Manuel, already probably overdrafted, has two fewer weapons than Fitzpatrick had (Nelson, Jones), and you get another long year in Buffalo.
3.) New York Jets = 5-11
Lost: (CB) Darrelle Revis, (G) Matt Slauson, (DE) Mike DeVito, (RB) Shonn Greene, (ILB) Bart Scott, (S) LaRon Landry, (S) Yeremiah Bell, (NT) Sione Pouha
Gained: (NT) Antonio Garay, (RB) Chris Ivory, (OT) Willie Colon, (OLB) Antwan Barnes, (S) Dawan Landry, (TE) Kellen Winslow Jr.
The greatest 'gain' for the Jets may not be on the field, but in Jeff Idzik, a man who can stand up to Rex Ryan. Ryan is a brilliant defensive strategist, but he did his best work with mostly Mangini's players (2009 & 2010 Jets), and as Rex guys came in that team went to hell. Of course, if they could have had a league average QB and league average receivers, they might be a playoff team. The talent (and the coaching) is still there, but the QB just isn't. Even if it isn't Sanchez, I can't see Geno Smith succeeding enough as a rookie for Rex to keep his job. It is a shame, because I really like most of their defensive pieces and the Jets will probably continue to outright dominate any marginal offense they face on that side of the ball. But when you add Sanchez/Smith with Chris Ivory as lead back and Santonio (off an ACL injury) and Stephen Hill, even if you have a potentially great O-Line, that is not nearly good enough.
2.) Miami Dolphins = 9-7
Lost: (ILB) Karlos Dansby, (OT) Jake Long, (RB) Reggie Bush, (ILB) Kevin Burnett, (CB) Sean Smith
Gained: (WR) Mike Wallace, (ILB) Danell Ellerbe, (OLB) Philip Wheeler, (TE) Dustin Keller, (OT) Tyson Clabo, (CB) Brent Grimes, (WR) Brandon Gibson
Everything really depends on Ryan Tannehill. The Dolphins have a nice team around him, with a defense that transitioned just fine to the 4-3 (especially Cameron Wake, which had to be the biggest concern for them in that switch), and with Clabo, Keller and of course Mike Wallace, the offensive pieces around Ryan Tannehill are really good. What isn't though is Tannehill. Sure, he was a rookie, but I feel like people propped him up with his far superior fellow rookies. The guy had more interceptions than TDs with a y/a under 7. That is not exactly a good season even for a rookie. Can he raise his game? I'm sure it is possible, but I think for Tannehill, the jump to a playoff caliber QB is more likely to occur in 2014 than 2013.
1.) New England Patriots = 11-5 (4-seed)
Lost: (TE) Mr. Alleged Homicidal Maniac, (WR) Wes Welker, (RB) Danny Woodhead, (G) Donald Thomas, (S) Patrick Chung, (WR) Brandon Lloyd, (DE) Kyle Love
Gained: (DT) Tommy Kelly, (WR) Danny Amendola, (QB) Tim Tebow
Well, that was a most un-Patriots like offseason ever. And to remember when it was just about their rookie corner's felony assault trail (yeah, that happened). Here we are, and here the Patriots are, missing their second TE, their two starting receivers from last year, and with spare parts and injury reclamations to replace them, along with Danny Amendola. If Rob Gronkowski misses any serious time they could be in real trouble. I'll assume he doesn't for this (all accounts are without further setbacks he'll be back soon enough), and say that the Patriots are still the best team in the division, but they are damn fortunate they are in the AFC and not the loaded NFC. They can't have Brady's performance from 2006 (the last time his weapons were this mediocre) and expect to go anywhere, because the 2006 Patriots had the league's 3rd best defense. Some may say the Patriots defense is getting better, I will say it is still decidedly average. Their run game should pick up some of the slack, but predicting anything more than an 11-win season is putting more trust in Belichick than even I want to give. Of course, I have been way off on New England before (2010 season).
AFC North
4.) Cleveland Browns = 5-11
Lost: (DE) Frostee Rucker, (WR) Muhammad Massaquoi, (TE) Ben Watson, (S) Usama Young, (WR) Joshua Cribbs
Gained: (OLB) Paul Kruger, (DE) Quentin Groves, (TE) Kellen Davis, (QB) Jason Campbell, (CB) Chris Owens, (WR) Davon Bess
The Browns seemed to have a much louder offseason than they really have, as their only real FA acquisition that can really help the team in the short term is Kruger. They had a nice draft, I guess, but I generally think rookies really altering a team's one-season outlook is more the exception than the rule. Mike Lombardi will probably use this year as a full try-out season, starting with Weeden, and there is a lot to sift through. The O-Line is mostly set, as is the defense, but switching to a 3-4 seems like a horrible idea. It doesn't really fit the good Browns defenders already there (Jabaal Sheard, specifically, seems like a man without a country right now). It is easy to say good things are coming because they have a new owner and management team, but the owner is the CEO of a company currently under Federal Investigation, and their GM is a guy who most Football Fans know to be a babbling stooge, so I can't really be that kind.
3.) Baltimore Ravens = 9-7
Lost: (ILB) Ray Lewis, (S) Ed Reed, (OLB) Paul Kurger, (CB) Cary Williams, (WR) Anquan Boldin, (CB), (C) Matt Birk, (S) Bernard Pollard, (ILB) Danell Ellerbe, (FB) Vonta Leach
Gained: (OLB) Elvis Dumervil, (DT) Chris Canty, (ILB) Daryl Smith, (ILB) Rolando McClain, (DE) Marcus Spears, (S) Michael Huff
The 2013 Ravens will not resemble the 2012 Ravens at all. Obviously, Ray and Ed are gone, but so is Pollard (hope they don't get the Pats in the playoffs without their Pats killer - not to confused with Aaron Hernandez a Pat Killer), Paul Kruger, Cary Williams and Dannell Ellerbe. They are replacing more than half their defense, yet their defense could be better. All of their replacements, when healthy, are good players. They were lucky to have Dumervil fall into their lap, but he and a healthy Terrell Suggs should replicated what Paul Kruger and a unhealthy Suggs did in 2012. Offense is the big issue for me with Baltimore. First of all, their offense wasn't all that great last year. They were great in the playoffs because Anquan Boldin decided to play as well as he has in five years and Dennis Pitta 'made the leap'. Of course, Boldin is gone and Pitta is gone, leaving Joe Flacco where he was back in 2009-10, with just one trusted receiver to throw to. I like their being proactive and getting Stokley and Clark, but that's not nearly what they are replacing. That division is tough and schedule is tougher. Add it all up and I think the Ravens miss the playoffs for the first time in the Flacco/Harbaugh era.
2.) Cincinnati Bengals = 11-5 (5)
Lost: (OLB) Manny Lawson, (DT) Pat Sims, (CB) Jason Allen
Gained: (OLB) James Harrison
It is hard to believe that this will be Marvin Lewis' 10th year in charge of the Bengals. 10 years without just four playoff appearances and nary a playoff win. Of course, this team is headed in the right direction and has a really bright future, so it would be the wrong time to fire him. There is one question mark though, and that is Dalton. At some point, we have to wonder if this is the best Dalton gets. He really got no better in his second season and was not good down the stretch. He has enough to throw to and a decent O-Line and a more than decent running game. Everything is there, and if Dalton takes that next step, they can really start to challenge for AFC North supremacy soon. I am predicting them to take another step up to 11-5. That defense is incredibly stacked at every level, and their backups are about as good as a few teams starters. If young guys like Dre Kirkpatrick take another step up, this could be the best defense in the NFL. Their offense just needs to do what it did last year, or maybe improve like 5%. If they can solidify their receiver position across from Green, that team could really be the top team in the AFC for the next ten years.
1.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 12-4 (2)
Lost: (CB) Keenan Lewis, (OLB) James Harrison, (WR) Mike Wallace, (RB) Rashard Mendenhall, (S) Ryan Mundy, (OT) Willie Colon, (G) Doug Legursky
Gained: (CB) William Gay, (OT) Guy Whimper
Since 2000, the Steelers have done an interesting cycle. They miss the playoffs every three years ('00, '03, '06, 09, '12) and make the playoffs in all the years in between. Their records in the year immediately after missing the playoffs: 13-3, 15-1, 10-6, 12-4, and in that 10-6 year, they started 10-4 before resting everyone the last two weeks. A lot of my Steelers prediction is simply blind faith in the LeBeau University Pipeline. The Steelers had a lot of aging defensive players last year and those guys are mostly gone. In pure Steelers fashion the replacements are there, they just need to play well. The Steelers season comes down to whether Ziggy Hood, Cameron Heyward, Steve McClendon, Cortez Allen and either Jason Worilds or Jarvis Jones can replace Aaron Smith, Brett Keisel, Casey Hampton, Keenan Lewis and James Harrison adequately. I think they can, for the most part. I also still like that offense without Mike Wallace, as that O-Line cannot possibly be ridiculously injured once again, and with their run game more settled that offense can actually be quite good. Trends and hopes, that is what my Steelers prediction is based on, but in a way all of these are.
AFC South
4.) Jacksonville Jaguars = 3-13
Lost: (OLB) Daryl Smith, (S) Dawan Landry, (CB) Aaron Ross, (DT) Terrance Knighton, (WR) Laurent Robinson, (RB) Rashad Jennings
Gained: (OLB) Geno Hayes, (WR) Muhammad Massaquoi, (CB) Marcus Trufant, (DT) Sen'derrick Marks
I've seen a weird trend in my recent predictions for teams with new coaches in that I always feel like they will bottom out with the new coach in year 1, instead of taking a small boost up with a new coach. Of course, that was also true of the 2012 Jaguars, who went 3-13 with first year coach Mike Mularkey. I still don't think the team is any good, especially after losing three decent players on defense (Daryl Smith, Landry and Knighton), and replacing them with lesser players (Geno Hayes, Marks). Of course, they still employ - and plan to start - Blaine Gabbert. Sure, there are layers that struggled early and ended up good, but almost no one struggled to the level of Gabbert and ended up a good player. Personally, I think they play this year out with Gabbert, get another really high pick and select Teddy Bridgewater or someone.
3.) Tennessee Titans = 5-11
Lost: (G) Steve Hutchinson, (TE) Jared Cook, (DT) Sen'derrick Marks
Gained: (S) Bernard Pollard, (ILB) Moises Fokou, (TE) Delanie Walker, (G) Andy Levitre, (QB) Ryan Fitzpatrick
How is Mike Munchak really still they're coach? The Titans have bled talent since Fisher left after 2009 and while they still have some nice fantasy pieces (I can see a big comeback season for Chris Johnson), and had a decent offseason with getting the best guard on the market, and getting known Patriots killer Bernard Pollard. It comes down to the prospect of Jake Locker improving or not. He was simply not very good in 2012, with a Gabbert-esque 74.0 QB rating, and 56.4% completion percentage and more INTs than TDs. I actually didn't realize he was 'that' bad in 2012. In his defense he doesn't have much to work with, but the Titans need a Jake Locker that might never be there. The real issue for the Titans is their absolutely horrible defense in 2012. They had bad special teams luck, so their league-worst points allowed is probably extreme, but they just don't have any legitimate pro-bowl type player on that defense. The schedule is light, but in my mind that makes them a decidedly below average team instead of a terrible one.
2.) Indianapolis Colts = 8-8
Lost: (DE) Dwight Freeney, (WR) Donnie Avery, (ILB) Moises Fokou, (S) Tom Zbikowski
Gained: (G) Donald Thomas, (CB) Greg Toler, (OT) Gosder Cherilus, (OLB) Erik Walden, (DT) Ricky-Jean Francois, (WR) Darrius Heyward-Bey, (RB) Ahmad Bradshaw, (S) LaRon Landry
The Colts can be a better team and 2012 and still have an 8-8 record. They really were a 6-10 or 7-9 team that lucked (literally and figuratively) their way into an 11-5 record. They set records for best record in one score games, and Luck led an NFL-high 7 game winning drives. They went out and spend a boatload of money because they had enough to spend (even more next year), but the question remains if they spent it wisely. It has to be said that every new Colts FA acquisition is better than the person they replaced (the only debatable one is Erik Walden relacing Dwight Freeney). If they can stay healthy, Landry and Toler can make a huge weakness into at least a competent secondary. Donald Thomas and Gosder Cherilus could make that line competent. The problem is that defense still has no real identity, and some of the good luck that went their way won't. The Colts always had injuries, but they were remarkably healthy at WR in 2012. If Wayne (or Hilton) gets hurt, Luck may have issues. The Colts have a really bright future, but their 2013 probably won't be where it starts. That will be 2014, and if the Free Agents work, for many years after that.
1.) Houston Texans = 12-4 (3)
Lost: (S) Glover Quin, (OLB) Connor Barwin
Gained: (S) Ed Reed, (P) Shane Lechler
There is still no reason the Texans have to take a step back. I feel that the Texans ended the season so badly last year that people assume they were really like a 10-6 team that somehow won 12 games. I still think they are quite a bit ahead of the Colts. Matt Schaub was hurt late last year, and their O-Line was as well. Fix those two things and this is a great team once again. JJ Watt can't possibly be that good again, but with Brian Cushing back for hopefully the whole season, and a healthier season with Jonothan Joseph should still allow the Texans to be a Top-10 defense. At the end, they have an easy schedule. They do draw Baltimore, Denver and New England, but they also have their own division, Arizona, St. Louis and the rest of the AFC West. 12-4 is probably their peak, but I'll go with their peak once more. Of course, the Texans have failed me in the past (look at my 2012 preview), but the Texans are still one of the most talented teams in the NFL.
AFC West
4.) Oakland Raiders = 3-13
Lost: (QB) Carson Palmer, (WR) Darrius Heyward-Bey, (DT) Tommy Kelly, (OLB) Philip Wheeler, (ILB) Rolando McClain, (DE) Matt Shaughnessy, (S) Mike Mitchell, (TE) Brandon Myers, (S) Michael Huff
Gained: (QB) Matt Flynn, (CB) Tracy Porter, (CB) Mike Jenkins, (S) Usama Young, (WR) Joshua Cribbs, (OLB) Nick Roach, (OLB) Kevin Burnett, (RB) Rashad Jennings
For someone coming from Green Bay, Reggie McKenzie was really active in signing free agents. Now, he did it in a smart way, giving a bunch of 'wily old veterans' one or two year deals, basically as capable placeholders till he gets some draft picks to replace him. He went scorched earth with the remaining Davis guys which is fine, but losing Palmer, Heyward-Bey, Kelly, Shaughnessy, Brandon Myers and Michael Huff is quite a bit to replace. Some of the new guys are decent, but they have no pass rush, average guys in the secondary, and few weapons for Matt Flynn, who I assume will be their QB. The Raiders are moving in the right direction, finally cutting away the Al Davis years. I should note that Al Davis, almost seeing his death coming, actually managed to make the Raiders talented enough to probably have been the best team in the AFC West in 2010, but it never worked out. McKenzie did what he had to do, and these could be some lean years. It will be interesting to see if he holds onto Dennis Allen if the Raiders go 3-13 or 4-12.
3.) Kansas City Chiefs = 6-10
Lost: (OT) Eric Winston, (NT) Glenn Dorsey, (CB) Javier Arenas, (WR) Steve Breaston, (G) Ryan Lilja, (QB) Matt Cassel
Gained: (CB) Dunta Robinson, (QB) Alex Smith, (OLB) Frank Zombo, (ILB) Akeem Jordan, (DT) Mike DeVito, (WR) Donnie Avery
Sometimes narratives don't die. I am guilty of this - just look at my constantly over-optimistic Giants predictions, but there is an interesting thing going on with the Chiefs. Coming into the 2012 season, they were a trendy Wild Card sleeper pick because of Jamaal Charles returning and Romeo Crennel's defense playing better. Well, those things happened. Charles had a great year, the defense had a decent year, and they went 2-14. Now, because Andy Reid comes in, with Alex Smith replacing Matt Cassel (an upgrade, sure, but not a huge one), people are predicting the same things. They also lost some pieces. I do think they will be better because Andy Reid is a better coach than Romeo Crennel and because Alex Smith is better than Matt Cassel, but they aren't my sleeper playoff candidate. That team is coming up.
2.) San Diego Chargers = 10-6 (6)
Lost: (G) Louis Vasquez, (NT) Antonio Garay, (OLB) Antwan Barnes, (OT) Jared Gaither, (CB) Quentin Jammer, (DE) Shaun Phillips
Gained: (CB) Antoine Cason, (CB) Derek Cox, (DE) Dwight Freeney, (RB) Danny Woodhead, (T) Max Starks
Boom. The Chargers. The AFC is so lean right now that one of these seemingly bad teams will make the playoffs. I'm going with the Chargers. What makes me nervous is that they lost some good players, but I like their pickups. Derek Cox is still a good corner, Dwight Freeney came on late last year and could do better in their scheme. Danny Woodhead should do great in that offense playing the role Darren Sproles used to. Philip Rivers just can't be that bad again, can he? That is what this pick comes down to. If Philip Rivers gets to close to what he was from 2008-2010 (in which time he was definitely one of the three best QBs in the NFL in those three years), with the Chargers easy schedule they could make some hay in the AFC.
1.) Denver Broncos = 13-3 (1)
Lost: (DE) Elvis Dumervil, (OLB) DJ Williams, (CB) Tracy Porter, (RB) Willis McGahee
Gained: (WR) Wes Welker, (G) Louis Vasquez, (OLB) Shaun Phillips, (CB) Domonique Rodgers-Cromartie, (CB) Quentin Jammer, (DT) Terrance Knighton, (ILB) Stewart Bradley
I pegged them at 12-4 last year, losing the AFC Championship to Houston. Well, they did something like that in 2012. The loss of Dumervil is big, but I like them replacing him with Shaun Phillips (which was making the best out of a bad, crazy situation). I just loved their offseason. Everyone they picked up make sense. Louis Vasquez is one of the best pass-blocking guards in the NFL. Terrance Knighton is still a good run stuffer. DRC, on a one-year deal, is perfect in the way they play that defense, and Jammer is a nice piece to transition from safety to corner and back. There are two big questions right now. 1 - what if Miller is suspended. That story came and went and now there is a chance no suspension comes, but if it is the first four games it could be OK, but what if it is only resolved later in the season? and 2 - what if Decker or Thomas goes down. Both stayed remarkably healthy in 2012, and while Welker is a great insurance policy to a potential injury, they are best as a trio. Those aren't really huge problems (save for Miller, if he misses, say the New England game), but for a team that on paper is easily the best in the AFC, those little things can derail a potentially dominant team.
AFC Wild Card Round
(6) Chargers defeat (3) Texans 24-21
(5) Bengals defeat (4) Patriots 27-20
AFC Divisional Round
(1) Broncos defeat (6) Chargers 38-17
(2) Steelers defeat (5) Bengals 23-17
AFC Championship Game
(1) Broncos defeat (2) Steelers 24-16
Super Bowl XLVIII
(A1) Broncos defeat (N1) Giants 31-19
